Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

[eagerSnake]

If the whole base of the argument against me is there's no way there's 2 town ascetics then by that reasoning when I flip town ascetic you have to lynch my cc.

[Gamma Emerald]

This cognitive dissonance coming from Eager is the final point I need to make up my mind.
VOTE: EagerSnake
I believe this is
L-1

[PenguinPower]

What makes you confident of that?

Because I don't see how an combination of roles including two of those modifiers would be approved for normalcy and balance. I can't be 100% confident, but I'm confident enough at this moment.

[podoboq]

Official Vote Count 1.27

Lynching

With 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

eagerSnake (5): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel, Gamma Emerald
boring (4): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, nn30
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Prism

V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)

[implosion]

What makes you confident of that?

Because I don't see how an combination of roles including two of those modifiers would be approved for normalcy and balance. I can't be 100% confident, but I'm confident enough at this moment.

Like I've said many times already. As someone who has been on this site ~6 years and who has seen tons of normal setups (and is very familiar with what normalcy means on this site, and who has read a number of normal game normalcy/balance review threads): it's perfectly possible to create a setup with two town ascetics that both counts as normal and would be approved for balance. Yes, it will probably take some finagling (either we have a lot of power or a lot of our PRs are passive, most likely, or the mafia also have roles that the ascetics screw with) but it is by no means out of the question or, imo, even that strange. Uncommon, sure.

[implosion]

(and i'll respond to boring's post later)

[Zoronos]

@boring
Anyway, here's my take on your play so far:
You've been in the middle of two trains - PP and Eager. Never the head of either - the player leading the charge for the lynch. While you were on PP, you didn't talk about him much at all or advocate for that train to move forwards. You mostly seemed to be talking to Grendel. (I kind of liked your evaluation of Grendel's conciliatory post to Gamma, actually 623).
However that suspicion also never seemed to get pushed based the suspicion phase.

At the time of the CC, you had Eager as your number 2 town read, after SS at number one. That suggests, to me, that you didn't have a lot of skepticism about his claim. Furthermore, I find "He survived the night, he must be scum" to be a really awful way to evaluate PR's (since it depends on the playstyle of the scum team on whether they are risk averse or not, which is hidden information). It makes it really easy for scum to try to lynch PR's by building up mistrust.

So, when you immediately flipped on him as soon as the CC happens, that seems scummy to me. You didn't take the time to re-evaluate the read or look for other indications on whether he was scummy. Just 'Oh counterclaim yup top scum' and a vote. There wasn't evidence of skepticism or evaluation. If someone counterclaims one of my top town reads, I am always going to try and think carefully about why my town read might have been wrong, or if something else is afoot.

So, I don't think you've done a lot of active scum hunting, haven't been an evangelist for the trains you've been on, and I question your sudden certainty on Eager-scum. Those things add up to my gut thinking you're playing a happy coincidence of two town having the same role modifier, and you get a free mislynch.
However, the logical case hasn't caught up to my gut and I am wary of just interpreting events into conf-bias land. So I'm not entirely convinced that you're the villain quite yet - at least not until we've had a chance to chat a bit more.

[Zoronos]

If the whole base of the argument against me is there's no way there's 2 town ascetics then by that reasoning when I flip town ascetic you have to lynch my cc.

This is equally stupid and we have to do no such thing. You might want to stop the petulance and just try to demonstrate towniness the normal way - by scum hunting.

[Gamma Emerald]

623 does not involve me.

[Zoronos]

623 does not involve me.

Yes, sorry, that was Eager, not you.
I am not sure why I typed Gamma there. My mistake.

[Zoronos]

Wait, so Grendel in that post was super sure Eager was town. He was reiterating that Eager's scum read on him made him sure Eager was town.
Grendel is voting Eager right now... time to go back and check that reasoning.
UGH SO MUCH ISO DIVING I JUST WANT TO DO OTHER THINGS NOT FORUM POST.

[Zoronos]

Fuck it I'll do it later. Too lazy.

[Gamma Emerald]

Grendel announced he was rethinking his read.

[Grendel]

If the whole base of the argument against me is there's no way there's 2 town ascetics then by that reasoning when I flip town ascetic you have to lynch my cc.

I didn't say there couldn't be two town ascetics.

I think that your responses to things have rubbed me the wrong way since the cc, and that if you aren't lynched today you will inevitably be lynched at some point because of "what if". Making you a threat in lylo, regardless of your role.

If you do flip town ascetic then I will probably come to the conclusion that we had two because shadow's cc is a bad move for scum.

And that is assuming you even flip town. You most likely aren't.

Lastly, forget the "no way there is two town ascetic roles", if you think he is town you would be against the two player trade in. Not say it has to happen if you are lynched.

Wait, so Grendel in that post was super sure Eager was town. He was reiterating that Eager's scum read on him made him sure Eager was town.
Grendel is voting Eager right now... time to go back and check that reasoning.
UGH SO MUCH ISO DIVING I JUST WANT TO DO OTHER THINGS NOT FORUM POST.

I thought his paranoia was town like, reinforcing the town read I got from RQS an stuff.

A lot of that was thrown out the window when eager was counter claimed. Do counter claims not shake up your reads at all, or what?

[eagerSnake]

Phone post so keeping it short again.

I think I've been tunneling way too hard on nn30/imposion, whenever I feel like I'm not being heard I tend to get more and more assertive to match and that's a dangerous pitfall to fall into. nn's response to me was good and seemed genuine, on the other hand I still don't like implosion, especially his last post on boring.

ISOing LUV however has made it pretty clear I've been wrong to give him and others a pass while I tunneled. For now I'm going to
UNVOTE:

Prism unvoted me in 1084


Mod Edit:
Noted. Updating vote counts.

[Grendel]

If Snake does flip town I will advocate lynching boring tomorrow.

[nn30]

Shadow_step - Has an aggressive town persona. A hint of grandiosity. I haven't seen this behavior before with scum.

@Boring - please explain this read on SS.

[Zoronos]

Phone post @ Grendel
I give very little heed to setup meta except when two people claim literally the same role. And even then I'm still pretty skeptical.
So yeah. Counterclaims don't do much for me.

[eagerSnake]

Don't forget to do your VC and Wagon analysis

Spoiler: "D1 Wagons"

wagon1:
Lil Uzi Vert (3): Shadow_step, implosion, PenguinPower

wagon2:
Zoronos (4): DierFire, MariaR, boring, Gamma Emerald

wagon3:
PenguinPower (5): Grendel, Shadow_step, boring, Dierfire, nn30

wagon4:
Gamma Emerald (3): implosion, PenguinPower, MariaR

wagon5:
PenguinPower (5): Grendel, Shadow_step, boring, Dierfire, Gamma Emerald

wagon6:
Gamma Emerald (3): implosion, PenguinPower, nn30

wagon7:
boring (3): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion

wagon8:
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald

wagon9:
Shadow_step (3): nn30, Lil Uzi Vert, Gamma Emerald

wagon10:
eagerSnake(4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Prism

wagon11:
eagerSnake (5): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel, Gamma Emerald

[PenguinPower]

What makes you confident of that?

Because I don't see how an combination of roles including two of those modifiers would be approved for normalcy and balance. I can't be 100% confident, but I'm confident enough at this moment.

Like I've said many times already. As someone who has been on this site ~6 years and who has seen tons of normal setups (and is very familiar with what normalcy means on this site, and who has read a number of normal game normalcy/balance review threads): it's perfectly possible to create a setup with two town ascetics that both counts as normal and would be approved for balance. Yes, it will probably take some finagling (either we have a lot of power or a lot of our PRs are passive, most likely, or the mafia also have roles that the ascetics screw with) but it is by no means out of the question or, imo, even that strange. Uncommon, sure.

Ok...so it's possible, but uncommon, and would take "finagling" to get it approved for balance. It's also something that hasn't been seen before in a mini-normal game. I'm going to stick with the simplest theory and keep my vote on eager. Greatest chance of flipping scum right now.

[Prism]

If Snake does flip town I will advocate lynching boring tomorrow.

This is a really bad post. I'm not sure if there's many other ways to put it. Why do you not just advocate it now?

I scumread boring for a really long time but the more I read the more I'm convinced I'm wrong to scumread the weird phrases (Zoronos jacket analogy, Shadow townread, etc.) as it appears to be more of a personality thing. The biggest reason to scumread her instead is the frustration she displays with me/Eager, especially the latter who is purportedly her top scumread. #1165's end does a better job of verbalizing this frustration if it's legitimate.

I'm still trying to keep up with the pace but I still don't really like any of implosion/LUV/Eager.

Both parts of #1168 has more of implosion being reasonable up until it concerns someone he wants lynched. The rhetoric is also incredibly similar to what I said about his townread on Shadow_Step, which he called indefensible and unhelpful. Why approach someone else's townread the same way I did if he thought such an approach "didn't merit a response". The first part is consistent with what boring's said throughout the game, with implosion specifically citing consistency as a towntell repeatedly throughout the game. The second part is just downright awful and a major stretch, and again I find it hard to believe that with the level of thought implosion tries to appear to put into the game, this is one of the ones getting his mental stamp of approval.

LUV's been so standoffish during this entire shitfest. It's possible he's finding it hard to keep up with the game, like I'm sure we all are, but voting Shadow and then basically turning into one himself reads to me like someone just waiting for town to fuck ourselves over.

Eager has pretty quickly switched from "perfect scumplay" to overplaying his hand hard with the constant "I'm town and I'll flip it watch out." It shows that he saw what was working and decided to keep approaching that angle without realizing the returns diminish significantly as you go. I really wanted to vote Implosion here but it's pretty clear to me that nobody is willing to do it-hit me up if that changes.

VOTE: eagerSnake

That's back to L-1.

[Prism]

I'm going to make that more prominent.

Snake is at L-1.

[eagerSnake]

Yay my first time being MLed as town

[Gamma Emerald]

Yay my first time being MLed as town

Ahahaha
You don't get MLed as scum.

[eagerSnake]

I mean, if I was scum and I was lynched, I would definitely feel like it was a ML