Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

[Gamma Emerald]

All right, I've caught up.

I am virtually certain that Shadow_step has the Ascetic modifier, regardless of alignment (he was clearly setting up to counter the claim as soon as eagerSnake made it), and very confident that Shadow_step is Town (Mafia has low incentive to counter the claim). With eagerSnake, I was half expecting him to withdraw the claim; the fact that he hasn't rules out some Town plays (Bulletproof or Miller trying to draw the kill were my first thoughts, I also thought of Wary but I don't know if that's common on this site because I can't find it in the Wiki--certainly it's not Normal). It also weighs against some Mafia plays (I agree with the idea that a Mafia Ascetic role is powerful and probably unlikely to claim early without withdrawing the claim later, so I'd find a Mafia Goon more likely).

A few points since the claim make me suspicious of eagerSnake. First, and most obviously, eagerSnake actively resisted attempts by Zoronos (785 and others) and nn30 (888) to provide content that would help us judge his alignment independently of the Ascetic claim. This seems consistent with a Mafia player in significant danger of being lynched and trying to avoid giving associative information (discussion of possible self-vote in 980 is also consistent with that thought process). The vote on implosion in 1212 is also strange given that boring is the larger wagon and was the player eagerSnake was most confidently reading as Mafia (I don't see any change from 1104). Of course, I think that the reasons to vote for boring didn't hold much water in the first place (next post post after next), which is also suspicious (I'm not buying that eagerSnake was simply too uncertain to make a meaningful case--in that event, he should have been working at improving his reads rather than repetitively insisting that he was Town).

UNVOTE: PenguinPower
VOTE: eagerSnake

I want a full claim from eagerSnake.

I saw someone else ask this and get the "fishing" dodge, so to be clear: I am inclined to lynch eagerSnake unless he has some additional reason that we should leave him alive.

It seems unlikely to me that PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald are both Mafia with eagerSnake, but either one could be.

It was me who was accused of fishing, though I just asked if Snake was a PR on top of being ascetic.

[Gamma Emerald]

Last, I'm discussing boring.

MariaR seems to be working with PoE (675). I've nothing useful to say about that.

I see that nn30 has multiple references to things that feel "off" (564, 638, 932) but not much elaboration on those.

The idea that eagerSnake parking a vote on boring should have attracted more votes from Mafia players if boring were Town (820) does not seem compelling to me. For one thing, there were votes for boring: a vote from Prism in 488 (due to an error in the VC the two votes for boring are listed separately), one from MariaR in 644, and one from implosion in 786.

I don't find it suspicious that she turned on eagerSnake after Shadow_step claimed. I think that her ISO clearly shows that she was reading eagerSnake as Town for no reason other than the claim (whether this was warranted is a separate discussion, but not one that I feel gives insight into her alignment given her reaction in 73). I'm not seeing any evidence that boring is "happy" with the conflict between Shadow_step and eagerSnake (774), other than the fact that she was ready to vote for eagerSnake.

The idea that the read on Shadow_step given by boring in 476 is the one that I most agree with--that last line in particular does seem awkward. I do think that Shadow_step seemed aggressive before that, though (and I find it suspicious that Gamma Emerald in 927 seems convinced by this, since Gamma Emerald in 485 thought that Shadow_step was in a tunnel).

This isn't a Town read, but it's not a Mafia read and I think that eagerSnake is a better vote than boring.

LOL
Tunnely =/= powertown

[Gamma Emerald]

@Dier:
What do think of my partial PP clear?

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Shadow still reads the same to me but I'm willing to move my vote with enough convincing. I still don't buy the case on boring, well I don't buy it enough to believe she's the correct lynch for today.

I'm going to take a look at Prism's ISO since I have no read on him at all.

[Dierfire]

@Gamma Emerald
What is the partial clear?

[Gamma Emerald]

@Dier:

If I didn't think you were scum...yeah. Still want eager to flip.

I figured this would be the case, but did it anyway to see your response.
No real read change, but I've decided that you cannot be scum if Dier is town. What scum would reject an offer like that?

[Dierfire]

I don't know why PenguinPower as Mafia would be so supremely excited to vote for me just because you had.

[Dierfire]

This was the VC at the time.

Official Vote Count 1.29

Lynching

With 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

eagerSnake (3): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower
boring (3): MariaR, implosion, nn30
implosion (2): eagerSnake, Prism
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert
Dierfire (1): Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Grendel

V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)

[Gamma Emerald]

I don't know why PenguinPower as Mafia would be so supremely excited to vote for me just because you had.

They had expressed a scumread on you. The fact they chose not to follow me likely means that if you are town, he is town as well.

[Dierfire]

I could think of lots of reasons for PenguinPower not to see a need to move his vote there.

What if he were Mafia with eagerSnake, afraid to look like he's trying to counter the wagon?
What if he were Mafia with boring, trying to keep the eagerSnake wagon viable to avoid lynching boring?
What if every single wagon were on Town, and he just didn't see a need to move a vote at all?
(What if he were Mafia with you and the whole thing is an act?)

[Gamma Emerald]

I could think of lots of reasons for PenguinPower not to see a need to move his vote there.

What if he were Mafia with eagerSnake, afraid to look like he's trying to counter the wagon?
What if he were Mafia with boring, trying to keep the eagerSnake wagon viable to avoid lynching boring?
What if every single wagon were on Town, and he just didn't see a need to move a vote at all?
(What if he were Mafia with you and the whole thing is an act?)

What if you have confbias!!!??

[Dierfire]

If it helps, I'm more suspicious of you than of PenguinPower, so there's a real chance that he's Town; I just don't see why his refusal to vote for me is inconsistent with Mafia alignment.

[Gamma Emerald]

How does that help me at all?

[Dierfire]

Ha ha, that's an excellent question!
I guess that I just didn't want you to think that I was disagreeing with everything that you said on principle.

[Gamma Emerald]

I have a question: what would you do if one of us was nightkilled?

[Dierfire]

I'd apologize to you after the game for being wrong, of course.
I'd also do what I usually do after a player flips: read the game over for new insights (the length of this game will make that difficult, but I'd at least give it a try).

[Gamma Emerald]

Well what if one of us flips green after a lynch?

[Dierfire]

That would be a similar situation, except that the "new insights" category would probably be larger because I could assess the players on and off the wagon for their reasoning (whereas the NK is often a source of WIFOM).

[Gamma Emerald]

@Dier: most of my scumread on you is based on the fact you caem up with the outlandish idea me and PP could be scum together.
Could you explain what exactly made you think that? Because I'm starting to townread you now.

[Shadow_step]

Anyone on eagers wagon who can answer this:

Why does scum eager claim day 1 when he'd be the most powerful maf role?

Why does scum eager claim day 1 when he'd be the most powerful maf role?

Why does scum eager claim day 1 when he'd be the most powerful maf role?

Why does scum eager claim day 1 when he'd be the most powerful maf role?

Why does scum eager claim day 1 when he'd be the most powerful maf role?

Could be faking ascetic.

Could be, but less likely than him actually just being ascetic.

Assuming he's fake claiming at the start of day one is a stretch, especially for someone who's only been on the site a few months.

No it's not. Its become very common for neg utility to claim day 1 and then they get a free pass till day 3. Eager is maf who fucked up fking ascetic.

[Shadow_step]

No point asking Eager for a full claim, he will probably claim a strong pro town role to draw a CC, so that his buddies can kill that player. No thanks.

[Shadow_step]

Yay my first time being MLed as town

This is another scum flailing lie, he got mled in the last game we played together.

[Dierfire]

@Gamma Emerald

I definitely don't like the interaction between Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower finishing in 149. PenguinPower makes a great show of pointing out a seeming contradiction in the way that Gamma Emerald is treating Lil Uzi Vert and implosion, but then votes for Lil Uzi Vert (later clarifying in 240 that this was a result of Lil Uzi Vert not answering RQS and not contributing, which to me both seem like weaker reasons than what PenguinPower gave against Gamma Emerald). Of course, this makes the eventual move to Gamma Emerald in 335 seem forced or rushed (particularly given the hesitance in 320 and 309).

--SNIP--

@Gamma Emerald
In 224 you thought that Zoronos was suspicious for being defensive. What do you think of PenguinPower in 221?

I thought that the pattern from PenguinPower early in the game (cast suspicion on you but vote for Lil Uzi Vert in 149) looked like a possible partner interaction (create distance without a vote). I thought that the switch in 335 was not consistent with the progression of the game at the time (I thought that he had better reasons to vote for you sooner, meaning that he had some ulterior motive to vote you then, such as creating distance).
I also thought that PenguinPower was similarly "defensive" in 221 compared to Zoronos in 222, so I was suspicious that you voted Zoronos without comment about PenguinPower.

I'm not seeing that comment as especially unlikely to come from a Mafia partner. It casts aspersions on the wagon without actually defending PenguinPower directly.

This was a reference to 365. I thought that you were trying to oppose the wagon on PenguinPower without saying so directly.

I can't find the quote right now, but I thought that your flip on PenguinPower was suspicious too--it was a drastic change from your earlier confidence and for reasons that had existed at the time of your earlier confidence.

[Gamma Emerald]

I can see how you might say that, however, it is my personal policy to suspect whomever performed the suspicious action more than the person the action was performed at.

[Dierfire]

@Shadow_step

No point asking Eager for a full claim, he will probably claim a strong pro town role to draw a CC, so that his buddies can kill that player. No thanks.

I'd like to see the claim before I evaluate it.