Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

[Prism]

Do you agree with my hypothesis that if Eager is scum than Gamma is likely one as well?

[Gamma Emerald]

Your comments make me wish to sway away, but my mind says NO.

[eagerSnake]

Don't forget to do your VC and Wagon analysis

Spoiler: D1 Wagons

wagon1:
Lil Uzi Vert (3): Shadow_step, implosion, PenguinPower

wagon2:
Zoronos (4): DierFire, MariaR, boring, Gamma Emerald

wagon3:
PenguinPower (5): Grendel, Shadow_step, boring, Dierfire, nn30

wagon4:
Gamma Emerald (3): implosion, PenguinPower, MariaR

wagon5:
PenguinPower (5): Grendel, Shadow_step, boring, Dierfire, Gamma Emerald

wagon6:
Gamma Emerald (3): implosion, PenguinPower, nn30

wagon7:
boring (3): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion

wagon8:
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald

wagon9:
Shadow_step (3): nn30, Lil Uzi Vert, Gamma Emerald

wagon10:
eagerSnake(4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Prism

wagon11:
eagerSnake (5): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel, Gamma Emerald

@nn30 use this post when doing wagon analysis

Just color code green for town

[Zoronos]

Now, on Implosion. He's been thin all game; that is, my general impression is that he doesn't do a lot to try and steer the conversation. He comments on this, but doesn't push. I am suspicious of anyone willing to just float along.

I think this is fair, but is typical of me on d1. It's relatively rare for me to get a scumread on d1 that I'm confident enough on to want to try to steer the conversation. Much more common is for me to get a townread that I'm confident enough to try to steer the conversation on, which you can probably see is the case with eager and to some extent shadow.

I have a similar opinion wrt eager's mention of nolynching as a possibility as those who have weighed in, it really just doesn't make any sense at all. It could be a scum ploy but why the hell would he do it as scum, but also why the hell would he say it as town, etc. Not ultimately super meaningful I think.

On the other hand, I hate to beat a dead horse of almost-everything-boring-says-sounds-scummy but I really dislike boring's reaction... again.

So, rather than lynching scum (or at the very least learning from a town flip), you're suggesting we give them a free night kill, and start this mess up again tomorrow? We're better off lynching today. Even if it turns out to be me (though I'd hardly call that "plan A").

This is such an incredibly tepid response for someone who has been pushing eager so consistently since shadow claimed. Compare penguin's reaction, and Zoronos's reaction, and even nn who remarks that it's worth looking at his old games based on this. boring's reaction just reeks of scum who doesn't know how people are going to react and wants to test the waters before committing to saying something like "oh my god, only scum would possibly suggest a no lynch, can we please lynch him already." Which I would expect from town-boring here (obviously not in those words but etc).

That paragraph from boring does not read like town talking to their top scumread. It does not read like town with a strong investment in lynching the person they are talking to. I could buy it as town talking to someone that they're trying to make up their mind on. But I can't buy it as town talking to their top scumread. It just sounds like detached, rehearsed advice.

Agreed on the Boring thoughts. My vote stays where it is rn.

See... I think this reaction is really overwrought tbh. It's mountains out of mole hills.
Everyone is going to react to stupid play (which is what advocating no-lynch is) differently. Yes, for newbies advocating no lynch is a clear scumtell, but that's a newbie specific thing. For everyone else it's just a bad-tell. In this case, it's easy to see this as a manifestion of frustration from Boring - I know my rule of thumb is 'talk to people like they're town, talk about people like they're scum'. It doesn't say much about Boring that she doesn't specifically belabor the 'lol you'll flip scum lol' line; it's annoying enough dealing with it from ShadowStep (and the converse from Eager).

Hell, I know my tone frequently will go to 'Advise people when bad play is occurring, ignore alignment'.
Also, "I agree with everyone else" -> Thanks for that incredible out-front stance.
Implosions post there struck me as conciliatory and no-risk, and he based scum reads on NAI factors. aka a bad post.

[Zoronos]

Do you agree with my hypothesis that if Eager is scum than Gamma is likely one as well?

I think their alignments are unconnected, however Gamma's behavior is really "weird" for lack of a better term and I don't understand it. It bears scrutiny certainly, but I'm not in the 'lock partners' stage of thinking yet. He might just be super indecisive and prone to trigger happy voting.

[eagerSnake]

I'm going to flip green but hammer at will

[Prism]

Do you have any final thoughts, reads, or reflections?

Using your presumably last two posts on reminders that you will flip town isn't helping your case.

[Gamma Emerald]

Reads, Mr. Eager!

[eagerSnake]

Don't forget to do your VC and Wagon analysis

Spoiler: D1 Wagons

wagon1:
Lil Uzi Vert (3): Shadow_step, implosion, PenguinPower

wagon2:
Zoronos (4): DierFire, MariaR, boring, Gamma Emerald

wagon3:
PenguinPower (5): Grendel, Shadow_step, boring, Dierfire, nn30

wagon4:
Gamma Emerald (3): implosion, PenguinPower, MariaR

wagon5:
PenguinPower (5): Grendel, Shadow_step, boring, Dierfire, Gamma Emerald

wagon6:
Gamma Emerald (3): implosion, PenguinPower, nn30

wagon7:
boring (3): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion

wagon8:
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald

wagon9:
Shadow_step (3): nn30, Lil Uzi Vert, Gamma Emerald

wagon10:
eagerSnake(4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Prism

wagon11:
eagerSnake (5): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel, Gamma Emerald

Use this post when doing wagon analysis

Just color code green for town

All of my reads are probably wrong so just assume I thought everyone was scum

[Zoronos]

Do you have any final thoughts, reads, or reflections?

Using your presumably last two posts on reminders that you will flip town isn't helping your case.

I ain't done writin' yet, so I'd appreciate if you didn't swing the hammer just yet. Trying to figure out how precisely to respond to Boring's LUV post.

[Prism]

My post was directed at Snake, not you. Incentives to get Snake to out his thoughts are obvious regardless of what he flips, though I suspect I know the answer.

[Zoronos]

I think LUV has been lurky, beetlegeuse-ish, and unoriginal throughout the game. It's really easy to float to day 1 or day 2 in order to give your teammates something to bus, and that matches his behavior. When he was getting heat, he basically disappeared until people moved onto someone else.

As far as who is more likely to come up with (and follow) crazy theories, I think it's pretty individual. Some people have wild imaginations and are prone to conspiracy. Some people aren't. I can see such a person coming up with something crazy as town or scum (perhaps more likely as town, but how would they know it's crazy as scum if they think it's perfectly sane when they're town). I think scum (or insanely conf.biased town) is more likely to pretend to buy into someone else's crazy theory hoping it'll stick.

So, basically, I agree with your conclusions, but disagree heavily with how you got there. I agree he's been lurky and low content, just pops in, doesn't push things hard, then pops back out. Very coasting.

However, I find that Town is much more likely to concoct crazy theories. The paranoia of "Am I being manipulated" leads people into strange places; not everyone is susceptible to it, but I find the indicator is more towny than scummy, unless they're using it for a purpose.

Anyway, scum LUV would further imply town Penguin, Implosion, and SS. I think we generally agree on SS being likely-town, but does that inference chain mesh with events for the other two? (They were the three votes on LUV when got heat originally for his lurking)

[Zoronos]

My post was directed at Snake, not you. Incentives to get Snake to out his thoughts are obvious regardless of what he flips, though I suspect I know the answer.

Ah, sorry.
I haven't played on this site in about a year, but last time I was here there was a lot of 'lol hammer' afoot. I may be a little reticent about -1's as a result.

[implosion]

Not gonna respond to everything boring said but:

I made it pretty clear I found his idea scummy

This is a lie; nothing in your post implies that his idea was scummy, only that it was a bad idea. Either this is a lie or boring is heavily overestimating how much sentiment she put into that post.

For reference:

So, rather than lynching scum (or at the very least learning from a town flip), you're suggesting we give them a free night kill, and start this mess up again tomorrow? We're better off lynching today. Even if it turns out to be me (though I'd hardly call that "plan A").

This is not calling his idea scummy, it's calling it bad and giving him advice, as I said.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Maybe I've gone too far into the deep end due to the games I've been reading on here. I've seen scum attempt some crazy things and I'm always in the belief that anything is possible. So much that with the experience Snake seems to possess, I think he asked for a no lynch as sort of reaction test to see who would immediately jump on it to reveal who really is impatient and wants to end the day. Of course, he could have possibly been advocating for no a lynch and I can't rule that out in the slightest and just the thought alone doesn't sit well with me.

So

intent

As for my popping in and out I'm not really sure what to say. I don't buy the case on boring and I was for Shadow over Snake as all of you know. I wanted to push Maria and Penguin more but we've long moved pass those ideas and/or wagons so I'm sort of left just here on the sidelines until we get some flips.

[Prism]

I question the point of declaring intent when he already claimed. Are you fishing for an unvote or did you just not see the claim?

The switch is sketchy already but I'm not seeing the motivation to declare intent like that on top of it.

[Dierfire]

I'm ready for a hammer.

[Shadow_step]

Podo is online, go go go

[eagerSnake]

I'm still town and I'm online too

[eagerSnake]

Was there any more questions?

[Gamma Emerald]

GIVE YOUR READS

[eagerSnake]

could be anybody

[Gamma Emerald]

Do it anyways.

[eagerSnake]

[PenguinPower, boring, Gamma] most likely theres a scum in there

[Shadow_step]

lol, putting your buddies in there ain't gonna work