California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[Silent Lee]

Hey everybody, sorry about that absence. I know it's impossible to tell town from scum when we're not talking, so expect me to blab all my thoughts pronto. And a special thanks to tss for letting me share this role with him. I cut my games back to TWO total a few months back and plan to only sign up for really good ones nowadays. This is one of those really good games.

-MBL

[Silent Lee]

re: Your most recent predecessor, MBL. I've already explained why I feel his "contributions" feel forced, insincere, or otherwise shady. I trust by now you've read my case against him?

I just read your "case" against me again, and it makes less sense than before my recent absence. In fact, your whole condorcet looks like the product of a random number generator to me. You're not the only person to wrongly find me suspicious, but you're the most strident, and you're misleading people or giving cover to scum who want a safe harbor for their ship.

IH, you just made your monthly "post that reads protown". You have me as your #2 suspect. Otherwise, our condorcets are similar except for Gaspar. Please explain your take on him this game. In my opinion, his attack on me is so mealy-mouthed you couldn't POSSIBLY explain it in a rational sense. And yet you sheep along with him. You found me clean, then pretty much nothing happened, then you moved me to #2. The rest of your suspicions jive to me but wtf on those two.

I know this looks omgus but it's not. I find you two suspect because your "reasoning" for finding me scummy is nonexistent or shoddy, leading me to believe I'm the lynch of least resistance for one or both of you. Prove me wrong so I can move on to looking at something else for a change.

[Silent Lee]

This is the silent speaker, posting and running.

Talitha's post where she accuses me because Gaspar is attacking me (post 1608) feels widgy to me. It has a damned if you do damned if you don't feel. Her next post she raises foolinc to the top of her list because "why would they want to waste their role-block night after night if they could just kill him?" This seems like she knows there is a roleblocker and wants the town to dismiss it. After all, foolinc

is

an uncountered doc claim, so why push for his lynch now?

Also a lot of the previous Talitha-Pooky inters remind me of Simpsons Mafia, where they were Kang and Kodos.

[Silent Lee]

Observations of Setael. DP to follow.

Setael (post subject 8 by user):

718 thesp makes Gaspar look town with “Your defense of CES is noted.”

I'm not crazy about this. The way he phrases it implies he thinks this is a tie between Thesp and Gaspar by the former making the latter "look town," and I realize from Setael's perspective (if he's town) Thesp is calling attention to Gaspar defending a townie (and by implication making Gaspar look more townish for it); but the rest of us don't have Setael's perspective and CES is by no stretch confirmed town. This feels a little, idunno, manipulative may be the best word for it, of Setael.

Post 345 – If IH is scum, Pooky probably isn’t. “Is anyone else having a deep unsettling suspicion of IH right now?” doesn’t look like bussing.

If I'm right about IH, this [post 936] is likely distancing from Pooky.

Only one of these can be true.

I note that Talitha and Setael seemed to be trying to drive a foolinc bandwagon in the series of posts starting at 1553. Talitha suggests the doc was recruited by the mafia, an odd supposition especially as she indicates that this possibilty could be flavor-driven but she doesn't know any of the flavor that might be involved, and also asks why he's been using his secret word every day. Um, duh? Setael immediately leaps onto a foolinc vote. Foolinc answered Talitha with snark, and Setael treated the "superstition" one-liner literally. Since the snarl was extremely obviously so, this looks like a case of throwing at the wall in hopes of adhesion.
Then when it seems clear no one is biting, and Gaspar reminds Logic that hes omitted the possibility of a mafia roleblocker as explanation for why the scum have seemed willing to go for obvious doc-protect targets, Setael suddenly comes up with a reason to believe logicticus: the lack of a counterclaim, and the fact that the real doc (if any) seems to have not protected logicticus anyway. (Actually, if the real doc didn't protect logicticus anyway, that obviates the need to assume a mafia roleblocker anyway, doesn't it? So why is Setael indicating both true in this post?) Here IH tried once more to drum up support for the foolinc wagon -- COMPLETELY IGNORING the discussion that had just gone on with Gaspar and Setael -- and then Zin said he believed foolinc, full stop.

I find this interesting, because Setael has been on after IH for like the whole game and has virtually ignored Zin for nearly as long. I'm going to need to chew on this fo a bit until I am satisfied with how the sets intersect.

I just noticed that Tamuz, like xyzzy, was myocardially infarcted in the death list. Perhaps there were two pairs of lovers, since Tamuz's scene makes it clear his death was not the work of any anti-town poisoner? If so, what are the implications for whether Lee was part of a scumgroup vs. working alone?

[Silent Lee]

(TSS.) Going through DP, I first noticed this.

little contributions but accessibility problems. Need to see more of her. For the time being neutral.

DP had noted the accessibility problems for the benefit of the thread himself. I don't doubt that the accessibility issues were genuinely there, but could ths be a case of heightened awarenes of a scumbuddy?

Also to note:

I will do so later "today" when it becomes meaningful.

I go back to Skruffs, and wtill do the condorcet thingy

Yes, technically this was later in the day, but what had made it suddenly meaningful?

At around the beginning of day 2,

Adele: little to go on.

Yet she moves up a notch on his condorcet from her place the day before, when she was tied for the bottom bar DP himself and no lynch. She moved up another notch in his next condorcet, no reason given.

I agree with DP that CES's "sweet. Daykill!" post [642] looks pretty scummy.

In the same post, he called Talitha out as scummy for saying she had no reads on people, and said he had no read on Pooky. Okay, one person vs. everyone in the game, but I still thought it was amusing. Also, the post of Talitha's he referenced was one where she did express opinions on one person she thought scummy: MOS/DB.
Never mind, he retracted.

There was a Thesp-DP interaction speculating on the possibility that Skruffs (who had claimed a blocked action) could be a mafia roleblocker. Posts 781-796. I'm not fond of any of it. I hadn't remembered that the first person to mention the possibility of a scum blocker was Thesp; IMO this supports my contention that Talitha hypoed power scum because she kew they were there. DP implied that if one dies, Skruffs must hang next; Mgm rightly called him on this logic as being extremely stupid. DP seems to have consistently liked Thesp.

DP appears to have suspected foolinc on the grounds that he called a secret word a "password". I don't get his point, as it was perfectly plain what foolinc was referring to. I find it unlikely that all town would have a secret word and no scum would, lest a wordclaim break the game.

In view of previous expressed sentiments on CES and recent expressed sentiments on Setael, I find this post:

think the "case" against CES is total bull.

very

very

interesting.

Post 1593 is an attempt to frame Talitha that does not stick.

"Frame"? If you think I am wrong in my suspicions, say so. If you think I am posting them in

mala fides

, put your money where your mouth is.

Overall I have fainter suspicion of DP than I do of Talitha, but there are a number of points that make me worry.

IH will be next.

[Silent Lee]

(MBL) Back from 3 day training for a new job, situation looks dire, not sure Zindy is a good choice at all, will review and post pronto.

[Silent Lee]

Please state where I said what you are attributing to me (DP implied that if one dies, Skruffs must hang next)?

Still a very dangerous gambit, because the moment a mafia role blocker dies, Skruffs hangs.

I probably should have said "looks like" instead of "is", I'll grant you that.

Then you concede that you meant to accuse me of concocting a frame job of Talitha? Then I repeat my demand that you put up or shut up.

Little splinters like that make me more comfortable with the idea of DP-Talitha scumgroup. By extension Setael moves down. By the way, i find the criticism of me for not voting bizarre; I

have

a condorcet, after all, and Zin is not at the top of it. Remembering that DPscum was a probable consequence of Gasparscum, the establishment of DPscum would make Gasparscum more likely, so my new condorcet:

Vote: Talitha

, DP, [Pooky, Gaspar], Setael, [Zindaras, Sarc], IH, foolinc, no lynch, me

[Silent Lee]

Learn how to read, Silent Lee. Looks like =/ is.

You did not repudiate your use of the extraordinarily loaded word "frame". My reading comprehension is fine, thanks for asking.

And the fact that you do not vote but ooooh have a condorcet means squat.

BS. It means my opinion is counted at deadline. In other words, it's essentially as good as a vote.

A Talitha vote at this stage does not contribuet either.

So I'm wrong for voting my suspicions because it's not helping you steer the lynch where you want it to go? No thanks.

[Silent Lee]

In my opinion, pushing foolinc as a top suspect over the past few days was a sleazy move. Setael and Talitha are the two outliers in that camp. Keep an eye on them.

Gaspar is clearly scum. Zindaras is either scum or a careless townie, and either way he should be squeezed today, barring revelations. IH is town now, I'm pretty sure--I don't see him hugging the scuzzy Gaspar so tightly otherwise. I have little read on DP, so I'll scour his play and give you my opinion.

I think the kill choices and voting patterns should yield a ton of info this game, particularly because of the Condorcets. Speaking of which, Sarc, you're not doing us any favors by never entering a Condorcet. You make it easier for the 2-3 remaining dirtbags to push their candidates forward to the point where wagons are feasible. That's pretty much how Pooky died. He became "the viable candidate".

[Silent Lee]

Er, hold that thought. IH, please work up that Sarc/Gaspar analysis, stat.

[Silent Lee]

I'm telling you all straight up, right now, that if somebody hits Lynch -1, I will hammer without hesitation. That's your fair warning

Then why are you convincing players to unvote, slowing down the wagon?

[Silent Lee]

(TSS.)

Some very interesting developments.

OK, since Gaspar claimed and Sarc believed him, it seems clear that either neither is scum or both are. If neither is scum, then neither is the way to lynch today, obviously. In that case my top suspects are still Talitha and DP as per yesterday, even though neither Pooky nor Gaspar could possibly round out their scum group; Talitha's kneejerk OMGUS to my initial attack on her came far too late in the game for an OMGUS to be entirely innocent. Besides, ruling out myself, Gaspar and Sarc doesn't leave a whole hell of a lot of choice.

In the alternate, that Gaspar and Sarc are scum pulling a play, I go back to Gaspar's list, which I stated early on was composed (given Gaspar scum) of his scum buddies interspersed with the townies he planned to target. That list was Zindie, Sarc, and DP, as well as myself but I'm the townie he targeted first; Sarcscum's presence on the list is confirmation that this is the right track, and there is again a strong probability of DP scum, this time either-or with Zin.

There is a slight possibility that Sarc alone is scum, with or without Zin -- this would explain why he gave both names but has focused the bulk of his attention on Gaspar thus far today; but I think the likelihood of that is small enough to make Sarc and Gaspar both bad risks for today, and I like a DP lynch better than a Zin lynch. (DP over Talitha because he is pointed at as scum in both of the main-line alternates, whereas Talitha is implicated only in one.)

IH's last post sounds good to me.

[Silent Lee]

Speaking of which, wouldn't it be a little stupid to claim cop with two guilties? Most cops probably would have come forward after one,

I've done it. And I was a sane cop in that game, too. (Jeepfest mafia, if memory serves. That or Mafiascum mafia, whichever one I was Internet Stranger in.)

-- TSS

[Silent Lee]

I am not lurking. You can tell that I am not lurking because, with this post, I am posting. See me post?

More to come soon. 23, 24, 25, 26.

[Silent Lee]

My spider senses, which are never, ever wrong, tell me that Sarcastro is not full of shit. Please comply with his requests posthaste. I'll claim whenever. There's a decent chance that we roll up a couple quick scum if this goes well. If I'm wrong in my read of Sarc, I'll eat a parabola.

[Silent Lee]

I also want to hear DP's claim, but first, I want to dispute DG's. For you see, I am Captain Leclère, and I can go on a long journey any night so long as I didn't go on one the night previous, and while I am on a long journey I cannot be targeted. Since I don't have any nonsense about being half weak cop, I mistrust Goofball's contrivium. In terser language, I call her a liar. Sarc, you may fire at will.

Besides DP, who hasn't claimed yet? Anybody? Has anyone claimed the ability to perform a night action tonight, besides Goofball who is lying?

[Silent Lee]

(EBWOP: this has been TSS.)

[Silent Lee]

Don't you think the person who claimed the similar role second is a lot more likely to be telling the truth?

I agree, and I think the THIRD claimant is even more likely to be a townie.

I was on a boat for the last night phase or two, so TSS will fill in the details.

[Silent Lee]

caveat: unless scum see an easy chance for a win by getting a single mis-kill.

[Silent Lee]

Silent Lee is sure as hell not looking like a good enough lynch to me. I counterclaimed scum; DP counterclaimed the person who counterclaimed scum. I claimed a role that can be proven, or at least could have been if there were anyone left who could test me -- and with people yet to claim, I had no way of knowing there wouldn't be. DP claimed unprovable. I claimed with people to go; DP claimed with absolutely no risk. How am I a better lynch than him?

I voyaged on Nights 2 and 4, and will voyage again tonight. Test me, someone, anyone. Why Adele didn't voyage night 1, your guess is as good as mine, but it's fortuitous that I can be tested now that it matters.

Test me

. If someone gets a result, lynch me then.

Vote: DP

, Talitha, [IH, Setael], [Gaspar, Sarc], no lynch, Silent Lee

[Silent Lee]

And by the way, I asked whether a roleblocker blocks my untargetability or whether I can't be targeted to be blocked, and the mod declined to answer. You might try asking the mod whether you have any night actions left; that might resolve it.

-- TSS

[Silent Lee]

OK, yeah, Gaspar's "neutral" claim is baloney. He'd hammer to help fulfill his win condition but he thinks, what, that Setael, IH and I are scum voting for DP?

Let's think this through... I'm pretty sure DP is a townie or else he'd have concocted a better claim. He's not playing this like a fake counterclaim. So Gaspar gets to decide whether to be RESPONSIBLE for a lynch of a townie or just an innocent bystander while a townie gets lynched.

The neutral wouldn't care. They'd hammer the townie, 5 would remain tomorrow, and very likely the game would be over and the neutral would win. If Gaspar was REALLY a neutral, he'd be worried about getting NKed tonight for trying to help out the town.

Not buying it. It's probably too late to wagon Gaspar but when I come up town in a few hours, I've gotten my "told you so" on the record. I highly recommend you guys follow this train of logic and we axe Gaspar NOW.