Mini 1830 - Game Over

[CCC]

Whew, that was quite a bit to catch up on.

My current thoughts: I'm quite happy with my current vote on Huntress; she's looking very scummy right now. Gerry's sudden attack on House looks pretty suspicious; malpascp's posting looks pretty neutral, which earns him a place as the least townish of People I Think Are Town for the moment. Gerry's earlier push on Gamma is now making it look like no-one could reasonably be on a scumteam with Gamma, which puts Gamma a little Townier than malpascp. House and Manuel sit firmly on the Townier end at the moment.

[CCC]

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

Why do you say

House

is the fake one?

He kinda has to, that's her buddy.

Well, he won't admit to that, so I want to see what answer he comes up with...

[CCC]

gerry overplayed his hand because he's locked in to buddies with Huntress and they'll be chain lynched if town does derp and lynch the towniest fucking player in the game.

Although if they'll lynch

me

, then I officially write them off as being too stupid to win.

Parsing error - did you perhaps mean to type "doesn't"?

[CCC]

@malpascp: why do you call intent after that claim? Because Bullet-proof actually makes a lot of sense if you ask me.

Bulletproof makes some sense as a Town claim, but it makes even more sense as a Scum claim.

- It doesn't have night actions (the results of which would have to be guessed)
- It doesn't give Huntress any additional information to confirm the role
- If by some miracle she doesn't get lynched today, it gives scum perfect reason to

not

nightkill her
- Especially given that it would be the

fourth

PR claim, it's unlikely to be counterclaimed

What would possibly make a better scum claim?

[CCC]

Talk to me, who else can possibly be scum aside from Huntress and gerry?

My current thinking on this question:

If Huntress flips red (as expected) then Gerry will be my top remaining scumread.

If Huntress flips green (the unexpected outcome) then I will need to re-evaluate all my reads in the light of whoever gets nightkilled. In this situation, Gamma, House, and malpascp are all possibilities.

[CCC]

gerry overplayed his hand because he's locked in to buddies with Huntress and they'll be chain lynched if town does derp and lynch the towniest fucking player in the game.

Although if they'll lynch

me

, then I officially write them off as being too stupid to win.

Parsing error - did you perhaps mean to type "doesn't"?

No. They won't have anybody else to hide behind if I'm lynched so any halfway bright town can carry the torch and quicklynch them back to back.

...oh, right, if Town lynches you

first

, then we'd presumably lynch Huntress/Gerry on the following days. (In my eyes, though, Manuel is still Townier than you are; if I ignore myself, you're only the second-Towniest player in the game)

[CCC]

Talk to me, who else can possibly be scum aside from Huntress and gerry?

One is still Gamma because he is sheeping you hard right now without thinking about the case you present or asking you any questions about it.
He is just following you blindly and that he wanted to vote Huntress over Gerry is also one of the reasons why i dont want to lynch her today.

Gamma voted in post 1822. House voted for Huntress in post 1845, twenty-six hours later. Gamma is not following House onto this wagon.

[CCC]

Talk to me, who else can possibly be scum aside from Huntress and gerry?

My current thinking on this question:

If Huntress flips red (as expected) then Gerry will be my top remaining scumread.

If Huntress flips green (the unexpected outcome) then I will need to re-evaluate all my reads in the light of whoever gets nightkilled. In this situation, Gamma, House, and malpascp are all possibilities.

We gonna 1v1 if she actually flips town (as if).

Yeah, that's very much the low-probability outcome at this point.

gerry overplayed his hand because he's locked in to buddies with Huntress and they'll be chain lynched if town does derp and lynch the towniest fucking player in the game.

Although if they'll lynch

me

, then I officially write them off as being too stupid to win.

Parsing error - did you perhaps mean to type "doesn't"?

No. They won't have anybody else to hide behind if I'm lynched so any halfway bright town can carry the torch and quicklynch them back to back.

...oh, right, if Town lynches you

first

, then we'd presumably lynch Huntress/Gerry on the following days. (In my eyes, though, Manuel is still Townier than you are; if I ignore myself, you're only the second-Towniest player in the game)

Manuel is never getting lynched. He's scum!confirmed town lol.

That's why he's the Towniest player in this game, yes.

[CCC]

Something just occurred to me. Huntress is currently voting House on the basis that she doesn't believe there are four PRs, right? And she claims to have one of those PRs, while the other two (Square and Victor) are mod-confirmed and certain.

If Huntress is telling the truth, then, she knew about the four PRs since the start of the day.

So, question for Huntress - why didn't you vote House from the

start

of today? Why the wait until you were forced to claim?

[CCC]

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

Why do you say

House

is the fake one?

Because I think him and Gamma are the team. His refusal to admit Gamma's scumminess is something I don't think he'd do as town.

He is dead set on hammering her because she claimed Bullet-proof? Doesnt make sense to me.

If he was scum he could have easily justified hammering Huntress and had my support tomorrow if he left me alive.

Look at Gerry's play dude. He DIDN'T CARE ABOUT ME UNTIL I DERAILED THE GAMMA WAGON AND STARTED PUSHING HUNTRESS.

His scumclaiming is all over the place, and the association with Huntress is so glaringly obvious it hurts.

BECAUSE GAMMA IS OBVIOUS MAFIA. IF YOU CANT REALIZE THIS THEN YOU HAVE TO BE MAFIA, YOU CANNOT BE THIS BAD AS TO TOWNREAD HIM

Ladies and gentlemen, Gerryoat is scum.

Look at what he's saying here; he says he's scumreading House because House is protecting the "obvious mafia" Gamma.

That is to say; his scumread on House depends on his scumread of Gamma. Therefore, he must be scumreading Gamma harder than House. Gamma, who was scumread enough to be almost lynched yesterday; versus House, one of the most Townread players in the game.

Remember the last time we saw this argument in use? Where someone votes for person A, using reasoning which shows they must be scumreading person B even harder than person A?

It formed the cornerstone of House's case on Eager, and now Gerryoat is doing exactly the same thing.

Gerryoat is now the scummiest player in the game.

VOTE: gerryoat

[CCC]

I think CCC is being dumb town for not realizing that it was optimal for house to bus eager and take control of the town.

I can see how Scum!House would benefit from that, but he gained enough Towncred from pushing the eagerSnake lynch that even after his push on Victor he's still on the Townier side. (If he manages to ram through a lynch on Town *again* then I might have to re-examine his slot, but for today, he's Town).

He also made 0 sense as to why he would be on no one as BG.

No, he's arrogant and thinks a lot of himself. This is perfectly consistent with his previous Town play.

[CCC]

He also played dumb about the lolhammer his slot did when i mentioned it.

He's blaming mal for not knowing the motives behind the previous owner of the slot's actions.
LOOK AT IT!

I am not blaming him for not knowing the motive but he tries to brush it off as if it has nothing to do with him and i will not accept that.
Just because the slot is replaced doesnt mean my read on him is reset.

malpascp is currently my weakest Townread; honestly, the only reason I'm Townreading him right now is because I have heavy scumreads on both Huntress and Gerryoat. (Considered in isolation, malpascp would be a pretty near complete null).

Yes, Jester's hammer came from Malpa's slot. This doesn't mean Malpa has any idea why Jester did it. Playing dumb about the lolhammer is a pretty null action.

As compared to Gerryoat, who just made the

exact

same logic error that caused House's day one scumread on Eager; or Huntress, who seems to have suddenly gained a PR (and suspicions attached to it) only when required to claim. I know you're strongly Townreading Huntress, but could I persuade you to vote for Gerryoat?

[CCC]

Oh my fuck.
If mal, Manuel, or CCC agrees to this shit charade I'm gonna replace out, because I can't watch you guys act so plainly against your own win con.

Gerry and Huntress are the scumteam, with extremely high probability. I expect to be voting for one of the two of them today.

[CCC]

I'm giving the "Gamma Is Town" hypothesis a good look because I think that House has a good point; leaving House alive looks a lot like trying to end up getting Gamma lynched, which suggests that it might be a mislynch.

If both were town, which do you think scum would consider more of a threat: House or Gamma?

Of those two? House would have been the bigger long-term threat. Gamma would have been little to no threat (due to being mislynch bait).

I don't see the relevance.

How does it make sense to you that scum would choose to leave House alive at risk to themselves just to push a lynch on a player who you think is already an easy lynch, and little or no threat to them? It doesn't to me, yet that is the reason House has been putting forward for his continued existence, which you are accepting too easily.

Oh, I see what you're getting at, now. In which case you're asking the wrong question.

The right question isn't whether House or

Gamma

(who looked like easy mislynch bait at the end of Day 2) would be the greater long-term threat. The right question to ask is whether House or

Grendel

would have been the greater

short-term

(i.e. over the next Day) threat.

Given how hard House was pushing Gamma and his previous success in pushing his scumreads to lynch, House would have looked less threatening over a

single

day than Grendel; scum would presumably have expected House to push Gamma to a lynch, and then would either have nightkilled House the following night or tried to mislynch him on Day 4.

Something just occurred to me. Huntress is currently voting House on the basis that she doesn't believe there are four PRs, right? And she claims to have one of those PRs, while the other two (Square and Victor) are mod-confirmed and certain.

If Huntress is telling the truth, then, she knew about the four PRs since the start of the day.

So, question for Huntress - why didn't you vote House from the

start

of today? Why the wait until you were forced to claim?

No, the four PRs wasn't the only reason for voting House. I didn't even mention that until I claimed (for obvious reasons). If you read my posts you will see the concerns I had about House, and why I didn't vote him immediately. I was still weighing up both sides of the equation.
As for your last point, there was only one vote on me when I voted House. No question of me being forced to claim then so you're wrong about that.

...alright, I went back and checked. You voted House five days after the start of the thread and... hmmm... twenty-five hours before you claimed. Timing still seems very suspicious, especially considering you don't seem to have much of a case on me (the person you were voting before House)

[CCC]

CCC still hasn't supported his vote on me apart from saying that he thought my first vote on him was suspicious and claiming that my scum reads were all town. He seems to be just trying to find things to support his vote rather than really scumhunting.

Your reaction to the vote on you is looking a lot like scum. You've tried presenting subtly flawed logic to support the Gamma lynch; and gerryoat, who I have other reason to scumread and am currently voting for (see my recent posts) certainly leapt to your defense with great speed.

That is to say; his scumread on House depends on his scumread of Gamma.

Another example of not reading before posting? It only took me a few seconds to check back and see Gerry's reason for voting House.

Gerry's reason:

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

I requested clarification:

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

Why do you say

House

is the fake one?

And my strong scumread on gerryoat followed directly from his answer to that question:

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

Why do you say

House

is the fake one?

Because I think him and Gamma are the team. His refusal to admit Gamma's scumminess is something I don't think he'd do as town.

He is dead set on hammering her because she claimed Bullet-proof? Doesnt make sense to me.

If he was scum he could have easily justified hammering Huntress and had my support tomorrow if he left me alive.

Look at Gerry's play dude. He DIDN'T CARE ABOUT ME UNTIL I DERAILED THE GAMMA WAGON AND STARTED PUSHING HUNTRESS.

His scumclaiming is all over the place, and the association with Huntress is so glaringly obvious it hurts.

BECAUSE GAMMA IS OBVIOUS MAFIA. IF YOU CANT REALIZE THIS THEN YOU HAVE TO BE MAFIA, YOU CANNOT BE THIS BAD AS TO TOWNREAD HIM

Ladies and gentlemen, Gerryoat is scum.

Look at what he's saying here; he says he's scumreading House because House is protecting the "obvious mafia" Gamma.

That is to say; his scumread on House depends on his scumread of Gamma. Therefore, he must be scumreading Gamma harder than House. Gamma, who was scumread enough to be almost lynched yesterday; versus House, one of the most Townread players in the game.

Remember the last time we saw this argument in use? Where someone votes for person A, using reasoning which shows they must be scumreading person B even harder than person A?

It formed the cornerstone of House's case on Eager, and now Gerryoat is doing exactly the same thing.

Gerryoat is now the scummiest player in the game.

VOTE: gerryoat

[CCC]

Nope. I asked the right question, which was about your acceptance of House's comment. But comparing him with Grendel, what in House's voting gives you the impression that he would have stayed on a single suspect all Day?

Hmmm. He has moved suspects a bit, now that you mention it, but Gamma was his most constant scumread before day 3.

Your reaction to the vote on you is looking a lot like scum.

What reaction are you referring to here?

You immediately claimed one of the easiest roles for scum to claim; hard to counterclaim, and with a built-in excuse why you're still alive the next day.

Where did I present anything to support the Gamma lynch?

The comments starting with this question:

I'm giving the "Gamma Is Town" hypothesis a good look because I think that House has a good point; leaving House alive looks a lot like trying to end up getting Gamma lynched, which suggests that it might be a mislynch.

If both were town, which do you think scum would consider more of a threat: House or Gamma?

It's a false dilemma. Neither House nor Gamma were the person nightkilled; scum didn't choose

between

the two of them. But you're presenting it in a way that seems intended to cast doubt on the major reason for townreading Gamma...

Gerry's reason:

Look at the page before that.

Ah. You mean the part where Gerry questions House's non-use of the bodyguard role?

I consider that non-alignment indicative. House is just really arrogant.

[CCC]

Manuel/mal, the fact Huntress was at L-1 for so long and unhammered should tell you she's scum.

Nope. It tells you that there is scum on my wagon.

If you're really Town - and, honestly, the fact that you're still posting as Town even after the hammer says a

lot

in favour of you being Town - then yes, everyone on your wagon will need to be re-considered.

And everyone else, as well.

[CCC]

Manuel/mal, the fact Huntress was at L-1 for so long and unhammered should tell you she's scum.

Nope. It tells you that there is scum on my wagon.

If you're really Town - and, honestly, the fact that you're still posting as Town even after the hammer says a

lot

in favour of you being Town - then yes, everyone on your wagon will need to be re-considered.

And everyone else, as well.

I've seen scum post as town after being hammered before.

Hmmmmm. Fair enough. She hasn't actually been confirmed Town yet; and there's no action that can be taken to prevent her flip at this point.

If she flips red, then Gerryoat is still a strong probability for the final scum - his Huntress vote could have been simple self-preservation (on the basis that if one scum is going to die, the other might as well get some towncred from it). Malpa is the other possibility. (But, interesting note; aside from Huntress herself, the only person not on the Huntress wagon is Manuel. That means that there's some bussing going on, or only to scum, or Manuel is the last scum).

If she flips green, though... then I have to give serious consideration to scum!House.

[CCC]

Vanilla Townie.

...I am going to have to rework

all

my reads.

[CCC]

Oh, and this really should go without saying, but just in case: Nobody vote yet.

We're down to five players. If we have two scum left, and one Townie votes for Town, then both scum can jump on that vote and force through a mislynch.

NOBODY VOTE YET.

We need to be

sure

before we vote today.

[CCC]

Final vote counts, every Day, colour coded:

Day 1:

Not Voting

: The_Jester

Square World

: gerryoat,

VictorDeAngelo

Manuel87

: CCC,

eagerSnake

eagerSnake

:

House

,

Huntress

, Manuel87,

Square World

, Gamma Emerald,

Grendel

Day 2:

CCC

:

Huntress

VictorDeAngelo

: gerryoat,

Grendel

,

House

, Gamma Emerald, The_Jester

Gamma Emerald

: CCC, Manuel87,

House

(this doesn't really count because hammer so FoS)

House

: Gamma Emerald (FoS),

VictorDeAngelo

Day 3:

Not Voting

: Manuel87

House

:

Huntress

Huntress

: gerryoat, Gamma Emerald,

House

, malpascp

(The day 3 count is not showing that I was on gerryoat at the end, not that it makes any substantive difference)

[CCC]

Some notes:

(a) Manuel and Gamma both voted for our single known scum on Day 1.
(b) Manuel was the target of a strong push by our single known scum, Day 1.
(c) Manuel has never yet been on the vote wagon at the end of day for Town.
(d) Due to (a), (b) and (c), there is still good reason to think that Manuel is Town. It could have been two-way bussing on Day 1, so he's not 100% cleared, but he seems likely Town.

(e) House was Town. Therefore, House did not survive Night 2 by virtue of being scum; scum decided to kill Grendel before House Night 2.
(f) Day 2, House was pushing hard for a lynch on Gamma.
(g) Day 3, House didn't see any reason for his survival is Gamma was scum
(h) Due to (a), (e), (f) and (g), Gamma seems likely Town.

(i) I know that I am Town.

--------------

This leaves only malpascp and gerryoats as the two potential scum. If there are two scum, then, I suspect that this is where they lie.

Looking back over the end-of-day vote counts, I see that gerryoats and malpascp/The_Jester were both on every single lynch of a Town player, but were not on our single lynch of a scum player.

The malpascp/The_Jester slot, despite switching players inbetween, hammered on both days; on both occasions claiming inebriation.

[CCC]

i'm the only one who defended huntress and when I did, I was going to be lynched for it. please tell me as scum why I would defend PR that much to a point where I was going to be lynched for it

Easy. If the PR is lynched, you can make the above claim and try to dodge a lynch. If

you

get lynched, then it makes the PR look even scummier and almost guarantees a mislynch immediately afterwards.

[CCC]

Hmmm. Previously, I suggested that Manuel and Gamma were probtown, and since I know I'm Town, that leaves gerry and malpascp as the scum. I now see gerry and malpascp both calling for

my

lynch, and apparently townreading each other.

Somehow, I'm not surprised.

[CCC]

My strongest scumread is still gerryoat, for the reason put forward yesterday here:

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

Why do you say

House

is the fake one?

Because I think him and Gamma are the team. His refusal to admit Gamma's scumminess is something I don't think he'd do as town.

He is dead set on hammering her because she claimed Bullet-proof? Doesnt make sense to me.

If he was scum he could have easily justified hammering Huntress and had my support tomorrow if he left me alive.

Look at Gerry's play dude. He DIDN'T CARE ABOUT ME UNTIL I DERAILED THE GAMMA WAGON AND STARTED PUSHING HUNTRESS.

His scumclaiming is all over the place, and the association with Huntress is so glaringly obvious it hurts.

BECAUSE GAMMA IS OBVIOUS MAFIA. IF YOU CANT REALIZE THIS THEN YOU HAVE TO BE MAFIA, YOU CANNOT BE THIS BAD AS TO TOWNREAD HIM

Ladies and gentlemen, Gerryoat is scum.

Look at what he's saying here; he says he's scumreading House because House is protecting the "obvious mafia" Gamma.

That is to say; his scumread on House depends on his scumread of Gamma. Therefore, he must be scumreading Gamma harder than House. Gamma, who was scumread enough to be almost lynched yesterday; versus House, one of the most Townread players in the game.

Remember the last time we saw this argument in use? Where someone votes for person A, using reasoning which shows they must be scumreading person B even harder than person A?

It formed the cornerstone of House's case on Eager, and now Gerryoat is doing exactly the same thing.

Gerryoat is now the scummiest player in the game.

[CCC]

CCC. as mafia, why would i defend huntress that much. You still havent answered. Why not hammer to prove I wasn't on a team with her? Also if my whole case was on house being mafia, why would i kill him?

a) As Mafia, you knew she was Town. Hammering to "prove you weren't on a team with her" would have been counterproductive, and

you knew that

.
b) House ended the day still scumreading you, and tends to push through lynches. I can't be sure, but I'm guessing you thought it would be easier to push a mislynch through without him.

[CCC]

Huh. I'd forgotten about that.

Okay, so he was starting to scumread me. And it seems that you were paying more attention to that than I was.

But nothing you've said detracts from my main case. You had a conditional read (you thought House was scum

because

you thought Gamma was scum) and then voted for the less likely branch of that conditional; this is exactly what eagerSnake did - and was scumread for - on Day One.

And

you did it in circumstances where the

most

likely branch of the conditional would make an easier lynch.

[CCC]

Huh. I'd forgotten about that.

Okay, so he was starting to scumread me. And it seems that you were paying more attention to that than I was.

But nothing you've said detracts from my main case. You had a conditional read (you thought House was scum

because

you thought Gamma was scum) and then voted for the less likely branch of that conditional; this is exactly what eagerSnake did - and was scumread for - on Day One.

And

you did it in circumstances where the

most

likely branch of the conditional would make an easier lynch.

So i pushed on the person everyone TR, to fight a lynch on someone I thought was town. and that makes me scummy? for trying to stop an eventual mislynch?

No, you're misrepresenting my case.

- Your chain of logic, as presented in the thread, said that House is scum

because

Gamma is scum
- Therefore, logically, your scumread of Gamma had to have been stronger than your scumread of House
- House was more Townread at the time than Gamma
- Despite both of the above, you voted House instead of Gamma
- This is

exactly

the same logic that eagerSnake used on day one, which formed the centre of House's case on Eager

In short, you were not pushing your top scumread, in circumstances where there was no Townish reason not to push your top scumread.

Gamma also said it was you and mal. but you seem to only focus on me and mal. how come?

Because I think Gamma is Town, while I'm sure that you are Mafia.

[CCC]

Wow. I did not expect

Manuel

to be Mafia.

Congratulations to Eager and Manuel, for a very successful bit of bussing on day one. And congratulations gerryoat, on being part of the victorious side. I may have had you pegged but Manuel... Manuel would have slipped right past me.

[CCC]

[quote "In the ghost thread, Grendel"]Also Shame on CCC, this is where he should be preforming at his best, he has pages of data to use. He is supposed to be the analytical, mathematical, skeptical, note taker of the group after all. He is being so complacent when he is in a position to tear up the game... or at least try something outside of VC analysis.[/quote]

My lack of experience was showing; this was the first time I've

survived

until anywhere near LYLO. You're right, I

should

have asked how come Manuel was still alive. Aside from that... well, there were a couple of other clues here and there, but I saw nothing scummy enough to counter the day one townread on Manuel, while Jester/malpa's vote record was terrible... so I probably would still have scumread him over Manuel, even if I had asked that question.

[CCC]

Gerry was my top scumread because I was more sure of him than malpa. (My second-most-likely scumteam was Gerry/Gamma, actually, which was also wrong...)

[CCC]

Yeah, I think was being kinda hard on you. I always have high expectations of players that adopt statistical playsytle, and their ability to narrow the lynch pool, and later Identify scum. Plus I was frustrated at the time.

Fair enough.

D1 kill: PR
D2 kill: framing me
d3 kill: PR
If we lynched Gerry and Manuel wasn't dead, THEN questions should have been asked.

I'd argue that House could have been set up as last day mislynch. Manuel was universally town read. House was universally town read for a while too, but having two mislynches under his belt, claiming to be PR when three had already flipped, and BoP would have made lylo a real fight for House. If I were scum and both House and Manuel were town, I'd kill manuel because there would be zero chance he'd be mislynched, while House would still be hard to mislynch it could be possible.

Indeed he could have. (In fact, during the Night before that final Day, I'd been giving some serious thought to a House/Gamma scumteam. After all, the only reason I'd been townreading Gamma had been House's survival the previous day, and House being scum would have also explained his survival... if he hadn't been the nightkill, then I would have started the day barking up

completely

the wrong tree)