Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

podoboq
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Post Post #1925  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 9:10 am

Official Vote Count 2.15
LynchingWith 11 votes in play, it takes 6 to lynch.

Lil Uzi Vert (2): boring, Prism
Penguin Power (2): Zoronos, Gamma Emerald
Gamma Emerald (1): nn30
boring (1): implosion
Zoronos (1): PenguinPower

Not Voting (4): Dierfire, Grendel, Lil Uzi Vert, Shadow_step


Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-30 12:31:00)
eagerSnake - "Fwiw mod steals pagetops while driving. Still think they wouldn't put in 2 people with ascetic?"

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Post Post #1926  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:22 am

If Gamma's telling the truth, then that knocks both Gamma and Implosion out of my scum pool. That leaves LUV, and quite probably PP, as scum.

I'm still happy with my vote, but I'd be even happier to see a few more votes on LUV (four more, to be precise).

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Post Post #1927  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 3:48 pm

In post 1916, Dierfire wrote:The reason that I ask is that the final VC suggests to me that there aren't many cases in which PenguinPower is Mafia without one of those players.

In post 1539, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.36
LynchingFINAL

eagerSnake (7): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Dierfire, Prism, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert
boring (4): MariaR, implosion, nn30, eagerSnake

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Grendel


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


Going back to this - What, if anything, do you feel this says about the Boring train?

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Post Post #1928  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 5:32 pm

In post 1903, Gamma Emerald wrote:With PenguinPower technically having already claimed intent, I don't see any reason not to claim at this point.
I'm a Town Cop with a Night 1 Town result on Implosion.


This is a particularly difficult claim to sort.

Options:

1) He's telling the truth. Don't kill him because he's a strong town PR.

2) He's scum and he's lying. Cop is a powerful role to claim as scum - especially in games where he may not get counter claimed. It puts town in a tough situation deciding to kill him or not.

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Post Post #1929  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 5:33 pm

@Gamma - please explain why you chose to investigate Implosion over other people.

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Post Post #1930  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 5:36 pm

In post 1929, nn30 wrote:@Gamma - please explain why you chose to investigate Implosion over other people.

I actually wrote this down to decide who to use my ability on.
Who to cop in Mini 1838.
Night 1
Thoughts on me + Eager(anyone saying me and Eager were likely scum together is clear)
Clear: Shadow, Prism,
Not clear: Zoronos, nn30
Opinions on ascetics
Eager is wrong: Shadow
Both are right: Maria, Eager, implosion
Shadow is wrong: LUV, nn30
I’ll cop implosion because he was the strongest fighter for the two ascetics idea
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Post Post #1931  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:06 pm

In post 1928, nn30 wrote:
In post 1903, Gamma Emerald wrote:With PenguinPower technically having already claimed intent, I don't see any reason not to claim at this point.
I'm a Town Cop with a Night 1 Town result on Implosion.


This is a particularly difficult claim to sort.

Options:

1) He's telling the truth. Don't kill him because he's a strong town PR.

2) He's scum and he's lying. Cop is a powerful role to claim as scum - especially in games where he may not get counter claimed. It puts town in a tough situation deciding to kill him or not.


(Ignoring that 'these are the options' is pretty obvious)
Which do you feel is more likely and why?

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Post Post #1932  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:43 pm

In post 1931, Zoronos wrote:
In post 1928, nn30 wrote:
In post 1903, Gamma Emerald wrote:With PenguinPower technically having already claimed intent, I don't see any reason not to claim at this point.
I'm a Town Cop with a Night 1 Town result on Implosion.


This is a particularly difficult claim to sort.

Options:

1) He's telling the truth. Don't kill him because he's a strong town PR.

2) He's scum and he's lying. Cop is a powerful role to claim as scum - especially in games where he may not get counter claimed. It puts town in a tough situation deciding to kill him or not.


(Ignoring that 'these are the options' is pretty obvious)
Which do you feel is more likely and why?


Leaning towards the first.

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Post Post #1933  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:45 pm

Mostly caught up.

First thing that jumped out at me is Grendel's recent posts are high quality and worth looking into. In particular I really like his #1854

I've similarly thought about the Maria kill but my conclusions are different. I think her townreads either all were town or only one isn't. One of them has flipped it and nn30/Shadow are both likely town as well. There's literally no other reason to kill her when if they weren't, she's protecting scum and is a candidate for a mislynch later down the road. I think in general it points more towards boring being scum. I think not making NK speculation is a big mistake-every kill is made for a reason-out of perception of a threat, out of a desire to misdirect, or some combination thereof. My biggest strength as a player is playing the WIFOM game and winning.

boring's is a difficult read. #1609 I think brings up a good point on implosion but you don't have to be scum to find a good point. The frustration is hard to see through, last time I reread it I could see it being legitimate. I liked #1165 at the time but now I read things like this and just want to vote her for it:
In post 1165, boring wrote:I'm frankly baffled by my wagon, or that it's lasted this long. I'd congratulate scum, but I don't think they've earned it.
What came after was better but I feel her posts are always going to come off the wrong way. However, that doesn't mean I'm wrong. The MariaR kill is a really, really good reason to vote her, especially if Gamma's report on Implosion is legitimate. She is my top fallback pick for a vote today if LUV doesn't pan out.

I still want an LUV vote for reasons already explained. It's not changing. You don't lie about plagiarizing someone else's reasoning as town.

Implosion's posts are getting worse but he's town if Gamma is and I'm glad he was investigated. I was scumreading him again but traitor's page says that in normal games it must turn up guilty and I can't find any others in the list that return town as mafia. I typed up the next part before I went back and saw this but I'll leave it anyway. His posts have had me thinking he's just making up plausible reasons for his reads and not even bothering to interrogate himself for whether or not they make sense. The first part of #1895 in particular reads to me as either a fundamental misrepresentation or misunderstanding of what scum do and don't do in general.

I think Gamma is real. I really believe the claim. It'd be one thing if he kind of talked to Implosion Day 1 and then started today with a brief interaction but he literally never mentioned implosion once and then all of a sudden seemed to townread him. Either he planned on doing this from the start or it's legit and I lean the latter.The one thing I agree on in Implosion's post is that the read forgetting is a towntell but I would phrase it as less concern for keeping up a facade rather than less concern for his life. Finding a completed town game of his in 154 pages of posts was difficult so I just went back to the first one, he looked more consistent read-wise in it but he also has noticeably grown as a player and I don't put much faith in that. This is a bit less solid but based off that game I'd be willing to be he'd rather try and be consistent as scum than roll the dice on being townread anyway. Either way, he makes 47 posts a day and I'm not going to blame him if he's getting muddled as town. I'm not voting him or Implosion today. If they're both alive later I'll reconsider. If he flips scum I will almost certainly instavote Implosion and LUV after.

Rereading Zoronos is my next project, his early Day 1 was pretty town but recent posts tell me otherwise. Telling us not to NK speculate and not meta is a big negative as the value in both is obvious. If boring is scum, his chance of being so additionally shoots way up. For now, more people need to vote LUV. Even if I'm wrong and Gamma's scum we'll find out later. Giving implosion a pass by way of Gamma, the order I'd lynch in right now goes something like LUV, boring, Zoronos, gap, then Dierfire, Gamma, Penguin Power, Grendel, then everyone else.

As a reminder it is imperative that you vote in a relevant way at the end of the day as town, even if you are sure your vote is scum. Your second or third choice of vote is better than the scum's first choice. If your vote does not gain traction, it means switch to someone else. Do not throw away your vote by either not voting or by voting someone you know will not be lynched.

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Post Post #1934  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:49 pm

Why - because his "this was my thought process" post seems pretty legit actually. I wasn't expecting to be swayed by it but here we are.

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Post Post #1935  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:50 pm

In post 1930, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1929, nn30 wrote:@Gamma - please explain why you chose to investigate Implosion over other people.

I actually wrote this down to decide who to use my ability on.
Who to cop in Mini 1838.
Night 1
Thoughts on me + Eager(anyone saying me and Eager were likely scum together is clear)
Clear: Shadow, Prism,
Not clear: Zoronos, nn30
Opinions on ascetics
Eager is wrong: Shadow
Both are right: Maria, Eager, implosion
Shadow is wrong: LUV, nn30
I’ll cop implosion because he was the strongest fighter for the two ascetics idea

Why'd you leave me, PP, Grendel, and Dierfire out of your reasoning, by the way?

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Post Post #1936  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:54 pm

Back to the drawing board.

@Prism - can you point to the post(s) which the case on LUV is laid out?

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Post Post #1937  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:59 pm

In post 1935, boring wrote:
In post 1930, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1929, nn30 wrote:@Gamma - please explain why you chose to investigate Implosion over other people.

I actually wrote this down to decide who to use my ability on.
Who to cop in Mini 1838.
Night 1
Thoughts on me + Eager(anyone saying me and Eager were likely scum together is clear)
Clear: Shadow, Prism,
Not clear: Zoronos, nn30
Opinions on ascetics
Eager is wrong: Shadow
Both are right: Maria, Eager, implosion
Shadow is wrong: LUV, nn30
I’ll cop implosion because he was the strongest fighter for the two ascetics idea

Why'd you leave me, PP, Grendel, and Dierfire out of your reasoning, by the way?

Because I decided he was a good cop usage based on that fact of his way he argued his point alone. And I was right: I have prevented a possible mislynch by choosing him.
Get to know an Emerald! Stop by sometime, would you kindly? ♪

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Post Post #1938  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:59 pm

In post 1934, nn30 wrote:Why - because his "this was my thought process" post seems pretty legit actually. I wasn't expecting to be swayed by it but here we are.


Cool beans.
I find the question "Why did you target X" is a really bad one personally; I find town make really silly decisions on NA targeting frequently, and it's an easy way to hang a PR.
I get really suspicious really quickly if someone responds to the answer to that question with "That's illogical you must be scum!"

(I find the importance is what the player has done since the information - If Gamma were still treating Implosion as suspicious, that would suggest to me fake claim. I.E. how they use the outputs is more telling then what inputs drove the decision. Inputs are effectively random.)

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Post Post #1939  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:00 pm

UNVOTE:

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Post Post #1940  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:01 pm

In post 1938, Zoronos wrote:
In post 1934, nn30 wrote:Why - because his "this was my thought process" post seems pretty legit actually. I wasn't expecting to be swayed by it but here we are.


Cool beans.
I find the question "Why did you target X" is a really bad one personally; I find town make really silly decisions on NA targeting frequently, and it's an easy way to hang a PR.
I get really suspicious really quickly if someone responds to the answer to that question with "That's illogical you must be scum!"

(I find the importance is what the player has done since the information - If Gamma were still treating Implosion as suspicious, that would suggest to me fake claim. I.E. how they use the outputs is more telling then what inputs drove the decision. Inputs are effectively random.)


He hasn't scumread implosion all day. He scum read him yesterday. Still finding myself swayed here.

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Post Post #1941  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:03 pm

I mean, I'm a little biased here since I thought Gamma was town prior to the claim, but basically putting Implosion in a list with 2 dead town and then ignoring him in terms of sorting is pretty much the action set I'd expect from a cop. He knows Implosion is town, so he's dealing with everyone else.
It would be more telling if he started to attempt to actively cooperate with Implosion, but that's a personality / playstyle thing.

Fake edit:

In post 1940, nn30 wrote:
In post 1938, Zoronos wrote:He hasn't scumread implosion all day. He scum read him yesterday. Still finding myself swayed here.


Yes, I'm agreeing with you.

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Post Post #1942  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:04 pm

Ugh I fucked up that quote tagging. I hate how these boards nest quotes within quotes by default.

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Post Post #1943  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:04 pm

@Zoronos - I also am of the opinion that "pretend analysis" is difficult to do as scum (since the portion of the game they're 'analysing" is already solved).

Gamma's "this is my thought process" post seems like it could have come from genuine town due to the analysis presented.

Do you feel similarly about analysis from town/scum and why?

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Post Post #1944  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:11 pm

For NA's? I find NA targeting reasoning is easy to fake. I think it's much more difficult to keep play after the fake NA consistent than it is to come up with a scenario for why you targeted somebody. Moreover, I find town target people for stupid reasons all the time (I certainly do) so am suspicious of people trying to hang PR claims for "Who you targeted doesn't make sense".
The place to catch scum is when they act suspicious of their own "clears", imo.

In this case, yeah, I think Gamma's thought process is fine. But I wasn't really analyzing Gamma with my question, I was analyzing you.

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Post Post #1945  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:18 pm

@Zoro -

Well if that's the case, you should know that if I didn't think Gamma's thought process made sense I would have pinned his as scum. It was an option at the time.

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Post Post #1946  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:20 pm

I'm definitely down to lynch LUV, but I do scumread PP more right now. I'm with nn30 in that if Prism quotes some of the things he is building his case on LUV on I'll be likely to join.
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Post Post #1947  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:39 pm

In post 1945, nn30 wrote:@Zoro -

Well if that's the case, you should know that if I didn't think Gamma's thought process made sense I would have pinned his as scum. It was an option at the time.


And I've have argued with you about it. I've seen town make the "Your logic doesn't make sense you're scum" argument; I think it's more likely from scum (because I love doing it as scum >.>) than as town, but I've seen it come from town. It says more that you chose *not* to go that route than that you did. That was the intent of the question.

It's a personality thing. "Everyone plays logically" players will take it as a scum tell while town, so picking apart the "No he's scummy for it" response depends a lot on the personality and propensity to project of the questioner. Whereas "Eh, logic checks out" is usually townish regardless of personality involved.
I've had this argument *a lot* on the boards I used to play on. >.>

Anyway.

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Post Post #1948  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:47 pm

@Zoro - what are your thoughts on Boring?

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Post Post #1949  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:52 pm

I was thinking she was likely scum at the open of the day, then I began to swing around to neutral because of the way she was playing cooperatively and attempting to work with other players, even those accusing her of being scum.
She's less proactive than I normally would expect from town (which leads me to believe scum) but it's possible that's a playstyle element. I lean it scum but it's not a surefire tell.
However, looking at the train from end of day D1 is swinging me back around to thinking she's scummy because every player on that train is either flipped town, theoretically-investigated-town, or a town read of mine.

It's giving me a lot of pause on accepting an LUV lynch because I'm really not sure I trust Boring's motivations for pushing that, even if I can see some of the points being made. Which makes me dig in my heels more on my PP train.

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