Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

Gamma Emerald
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Post Post #2125  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:50 pm

Um, a secondary scum faction?
Sometimes silence is the loudest thing you can say.

Zoronos
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Post Post #2126  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:50 pm

In post 2121, nn30 wrote:
In post 2119, Zoronos wrote:So, unless this is multiball and the mod is taking pity on us and I hit the secondary kill, I doubt LUV's claim


Unpack this for me. Hit the secondary kill?


Crazy ass speculation for how this could possibly be balanced but even then it's unlikely.
2 scum teams or one team plus an SK, penguin doing the kill for second team / SK, thus hiding its existence. Wild speculation best ignored.
Hit the kill - phone shorthand for jailed the person performing the NK.

Even in multi ball I can't really see the level of protection a jailer and a doc could give being reasonable.

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Post Post #2127  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:52 pm

Basically I can't think of any reason for a cop, doctor, and a jailer to all be in a mini. The power concentration for town would be off the charts.

PenguinPower
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Post Post #2128  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:56 pm

In post 2125, Gamma Emerald wrote:Um, a secondary scum faction?


Unlikely given the size of the game and the PRs at this point. If we're in a multi ball - which I don't think we are - it's a lone party.

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Post Post #2129  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:03 pm

It's a dumb tangent I never should have started. Suffice that I jailed Penguin last night and in the event of my death figure shit out from there if multiple kills start showing up.

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Post Post #2130  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:05 pm

I'm thinking this mini is going to be an interesting amalgamation of roles.

Gamma Emerald
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Post Post #2131  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:08 pm

I'm having a hard time deciding which one I believe more.
Sometimes silence is the loudest thing you can say.

boringHappy Birthday!
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Post Post #2132  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:15 pm

In post 2122, PenguinPower wrote:He saying unless we're in a multiball setup since he jailed me, and there was only one NK, I would be a SK.

This is really WIFOMing me. I know you said that SK is the only other-faction option, but I disagree. I think with day-talk we may easily have two 2-player scum teams. Even then, it's possible that one or more of these claims could be scum claiming PRs within their faction to be more believable.

Not the point. The point is that you skipped that possibility and went straight to SK. I feel like this could very well be a slip.

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Post Post #2133  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:18 pm

Haha. Lame. I've now scum slipped and SK slipped. I'm the worst player ever.

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Post Post #2134  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:22 pm

Deal with the possibility of multiple killing factions once we observe actual multiple kills.
We have plenty of crazy on the table in front of us.
I'm not stuck on a.mobioe device for a little while long (hopefully) thanks to this mechanic being a bad.
If someone wants to offer a compelling story of why LUV is town here and not just scum that ran out a doctor claim to see what counters they'd draw, soon is the time to make that argument.

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Post Post #2135  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:35 pm

Doc+cop+jk is by no means impossible. The "slots" thing Zoronos mentioned is sort of a half-truth in today's meta I'd say (it tends to be true most of the time but isn't entirely followed). Doc+jk is probably something that's occurred in minis but i cbf to look atm.

That said luv's claim is pretty suspicious in its own right (claiming doc when we already have a cop and having both a full cop and a full doc has died out pretty significantly over time on site meta). Looks generally more likely to be scum trying to draw a counterclaim as they go down than town. I see two options that I'd consider:

-lynch LUV,
-lynch an unclaimed. In this case we'd see who dies, massclaim tomorrow, and wing it from there. If we wind up getting no other power role claims it'd be reasonably likely that all three are telling the truth (at least, if scum have any power at all).

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Post Post #2136  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:37 pm

I think both of those are viable enough. Obviously if not LUV I'd want to lynch boring. I'd probably prefer that by a margin just because it's quite possible that LUV will die tomorrow? And even if he's scum, leaving him alive isn't necessarily bad because he'd have to explain why other PRs died if they die.

Unvote

Also, come to think of it, we have three claims from pretty straightforward strong PRs. Did any of the three of you breadcrumb? If not, did you think to?

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Post Post #2137  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:01 pm

I was starting to scumread Zoronos so I'm glad he's the one cc'ing LUV. Between the two I'm still voting LUV and I'd be surprised if I was wrong.

Lynching outside isn't a bad idea, if we decide to do it my vote is probably going to be for boring. In boring's position as scum I would definitely be looking to bus to get some credibility back after that Day 1 and Maria kill. My next favorite choice after boring isn't really clear, I can see any of Gamma/PP/Dierfire/Grendel and I'm not voting Gamma today.

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Post Post #2138  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:59 pm

In post 2135, implosion wrote:Doc+cop+jk is by no means impossible. The "slots" thing Zoronos mentioned is sort of a half-truth in today's meta I'd say (it tends to be true most of the time but isn't entirely followed). Doc+jk is probably something that's occurred in minis but i cbf to look atm.

That said luv's claim is pretty suspicious in its own right (claiming doc when we already have a cop and having both a full cop and a full doc has died out pretty significantly over time on site meta). Looks generally more likely to be scum trying to draw a counterclaim as they go down than town. I see two options that I'd consider:

-lynch LUV,
-lynch an unclaimed. In this case we'd see who dies, massclaim tomorrow, and wing it from there. If we wind up getting no other power role claims it'd be reasonably likely that all three are telling the truth (at least, if scum have any power at all).


Basically the mod likes to fuck with the players.
Anyway from what I remember DF wasn't LUV's strongest town read so the his doc target is itself suspect.
Show

Zoronos
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Post Post #2139  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:06 pm

I am a little astounded at how little anyone has to say, but okay.
VOTE: Little Uzi Vert

Boring, I was probably wrong about you. Oops.

boringHappy Birthday!
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Post Post #2140  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:33 pm

In post 2139, Zoronos wrote:I am a little astounded at how little anyone has to say, but okay.
Little Uzi Vert

Boring, I was probably wrong about you. Oops.


I'm not sure about the rest of the party, but this is my first chance to goof off today.

Zoronos - the more I think about it, the more I believe your claim. I'm not so sure about LUV's just because it seems awfully convenient. How sure are you that he's false-claiming? The loss of a doc would SUCK.

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Post Post #2141  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:36 pm

I'm going to run the numbers on lynching inside and outside the protective roles soon.
Sometimes silence is the loudest thing you can say.

boringHappy Birthday!
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Post Post #2142  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:47 pm

In post 2141, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm going to run the numbers on lynching inside and outside the protective roles soon.

What do you mean?

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Post Post #2143  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:51 pm

Sure enough that I'm willing to put aside my suspicion for your slot and vote him over my scum read on Penguin; sure enough that my first reaction to seeing his claim was to roleclaim myself.

He was scummy before the claim, and then he claimed something that I just can't fathom being in the same 13-player game with a jailer. Which likely as not was the intent - claim a protection role to gain some value for team-scum and draw out a town protection role. I don't think anyone here is about to argue the 'based solely on his posting, ignoring his role claim, LUV has played Towny' so this was his only way to gain some value.

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Post Post #2144  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:52 pm

So if we believe that one of the protectives is lying, lynching inside gives a flat 50/50 chance of lynching scum or a PR.
However, If both are telling the truth, lynching outside gives a 3/7 chance of lynching scum/town, with the town likely being vanilla(this 7 player grouping is Dier, Grendel, PP, Prism, boring, Shadow, nn30).
Eliminating the likely town Shadow and Dier(because as much as I fought him on his reads I don't really scumread him currently) gives very good chances of lynching scum if we lynch outside of protectives.
UNVOTE:
I suggest we leave the protectives and have them both protect me.
Sometimes silence is the loudest thing you can say.

Gamma Emerald
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Post Post #2145  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:55 pm

I'm not sold on both being town though; this is a measure to avoid screwing anything over. And I can determine which one is real even if neither dies if both pledge to use their powers on me.
Sometimes silence is the loudest thing you can say.

PenguinPower
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Post Post #2146  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:59 pm

I'm definitely considering LUV as scummier than Zoronos out of this interaction. I'm especially hesitant about voting for any PR claims at this point, so I'm willing to look off the wagon. I possibly would vote Boring and nn30 based on the VCA, D1, and recent interactions. I'm unwilling to vote Gamma, Implosion, or Shadow considering I believe Gamma's and Shadow's claims. So, that leaves Dierfire and Prism...haven't really looked into them so I'd have to re-read. So, yep, I'm going to go ahead and

UNVOTE:

While I re-read Dierfire and Prism.

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Post Post #2147  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:07 pm

In post 2145, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm not sold on both being town though; this is a measure to avoid screwing anything over. And I can determine which one is real even if neither dies if both pledge to use their powers on me.


You realize that as a jailer I'll roleblock you if I protect you, right?
I mean, I was going to do that anyway before LUV claimed, but c'mon now. Engage brain.

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Post Post #2148  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:08 pm

On my phone and don't have time to look it up right now, but how do kills work onsite? Does only one mafia perform a kill or do a majority (ex. 2/3)? If it's the former I see 0 reason for Zoronos to jailkeep Gamma if both are real. He roleblocks the cop and prevents getting a pseudoreport of his own.

In the event LUV is real I would be shocked if Zoronos or some scum wasn't a roleblocker, doc/cop is too powerful to have no way to negate. He's not real though, so there's that.

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Post Post #2149  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:09 pm

Wait, Prism presents a good point.
Sometimes silence is the loudest thing you can say.

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