Post #2194
(ISO)
» Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:29 pm
I believe the claim from Zoronos with a fair degree of certainty (it makes him at least as likely to be Town as Shadow_step).
I disbelieve the claim from Lil Uzi Vert for a few reasons. First, as Zoronos becomes more likely to be Town, my confidence in POE from earlier increases, which makes Lil Uzi Vert more likely to be Mafia at baseline. Second, the vote for Zoronos makes more sense from a Mafia player who claimed Doctor than from an actual Town Doctor (the latter has little reason to suspect that a Mafia player wants him lynched immediately rather than killed by Night, particularly at the cost of countering the claim).
I could think of two potential reasons to leave Lil Uzi Vert alive. First, if if Lil Uzi Vert is actually a Town Doctor, it would potentially allow Gamma Emerald another action. However, I'm inclined to think that the combination of Doctor and Cop, besides being rare, would likely have a Mafia role to counter this interaction. Therefore I think that this is not a good reason to leave Lil Uzi Vert alive. It does open one other long shot; if we lynch a player who flips with a role like Mafia Strongman or Mafia Roleblocker, the Doctor claim would be much more believable.
CUT: I hadn't factored in the Ascetic roles, which I suppose would be a weak version of a Strongman kill (allows the Mafia to kill certain players regardless of protection, but isn't much help if they want to lynch those players and/or kill other players).
