Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

podoboq
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Post Post #2250  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:49 pm

Official Vote Count 3.02
LynchingWith 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

nn30 (2): Shadow_step, PenguinPower

Not Voting (7): Dierfire, boring, implosion, Grendel, nn30, Zoronos, Prism


Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-14 13:30:00)
Last edited by podoboq on Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Currently looking for reviewers, a backup mod, and a flavor writer for a Magic: the Gathering flavored Large Theme. PM if interested.

Grendel
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Post Post #2251  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:29 pm

Spoiler:
In post 1539, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.36
LynchingFINAL

[b]eagerSnake[/b] (7): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Dierfire, Prism, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert
boring (4): MariaR, implosion, nn30, eagerSnake

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Grendel


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


In post 2200, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 2.25
LynchingFINAL

Lil Uzi Vert (6): Prism, Grendel, Zoronos, boring, Gamma Emerald, PenguinPower
Penguin Power (1): nn30
boring (1): Dierfire
nn30 (1): Shadow_step
Zoronos (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (1): implosion


Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-30 12:31:00)


Green= confirmed town, Blue= I Will not lynch, Red= Confirmed scum

Going off the final vote counts from D1 and D2, I think that nn30 is most likely scum here. If not then that would have meant that every scum would have been on the Eager wagon, which I guess is a possibility too lol.

Town is in a good position to win from my POV. So I'm not too concerned about the "what ifs" right now.

VOTE: NN30

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Post Post #2252  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:32 pm

@Prism

Can you link some games where you bussed as scum?

I know its offsite, and unless the meta is drastically different I don't really mind that.

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Post Post #2253  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:37 pm

@Shadow

I still think you're pretty townish, but something has been nagging at me since I read it.

In post 2092, Shadow_step wrote:Brilliant, all the lynch baits got all the good PRs :/


Why were you so quick to buy LUV's claim here?

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Post Post #2254  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:08 pm

In post 2235, nn30 wrote:Coincidence.

I've been raising hell all game.

Please, go through and find scummy reasons for me to be tunneling Gamma, Boring, Shadow, you, and briefly Implosion.


Would you do me a solid and quote your reasoning for tunneling each of these people? (I honestly don't feel like slogging through iso's tonight)

I can't speak for the others, but I seem to recall you were on the tail end of the Gamma wagon, and that your biggest point against him was his inability to keep his reads straight. Right?

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Post Post #2255  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:26 pm

VOTE: Grendel

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Post Post #2256  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:00 pm

^
That's the dude I jailed. I could see him on the most possible scum teams, he didn't seem to have any skeptiscm on LUV's claim (instantly jumped to clearly scum) and his vote on LUV was in prime bussing position.

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Post Post #2257  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:03 pm

Did you jail him solely because of his position on the LUV wagon?

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Post Post #2258  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:10 pm

I mean, you could consider reading the rest of the sentence.

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Post Post #2259  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:14 pm

In post 2255, Zoronos wrote:VOTE: Grendel

In post 2256, Zoronos wrote:^
That's the dude I jailed. I could see him on the most possible scum teams, he didn't seem to have any skeptiscm on LUV's claim (instantly jumped to clearly scum) and his vote on LUV was in prime bussing position.

What do you think about the meta argument he made on Gamma before his claim? That was a pretty risky move for scum, don't you think? How about his reaction to Gamma's claim? Was there anything about that which seemed particularly scummy to you? Or is your read primarily based the events at the end of day 2?

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Post Post #2260  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:22 pm

In post 2258, Zoronos wrote:I mean, you could consider reading the rest of the sentence.


Lulz. I like you.

Rephrase: So, your jailing of Grendel was entirely in response to his take on LUV?

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Post Post #2261  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:01 pm

In post 2260, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 2258, Zoronos wrote:I mean, you could consider reading the rest of the sentence.


Lulz. I like you.

Rephrase: So, your jailing of Grendel was entirely in response to his take on LUV?


Not entirely, but it was a significant factor.
During nightphase I re-read him and LUV and I got the distinct impression they were largely ignoring eachother. I find that behavior is common amongst scum buddies (though not strictly indicating)
Furthermore, he was the primary pusher of the two non-LUV trains yesterday. Putting it all together, yeah, suspicion is high now that LUV has flipped scum.

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Post Post #2262  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:10 pm

In post 2259, boring wrote:What do you think about the meta argument he made on Gamma before his claim? That was a pretty risky move for scum, don't you think? How about his reaction to Gamma's claim? Was there anything about that which seemed particularly scummy to you? Or is your read primarily based the events at the end of day 2?


I feel like I was pretty clear on the meta argument during D2. It was garbage, I told Grendel while he was still pushing Gamma. And I don't think it was risky; Meta arguments are fundamentally safe because they're nearly impossible to disprove. They're not based in the current game's events, so it's really hard to argue them one way or another.

I thought the act of pushing a case was towny (and said so at the time), because the act of pushing any case is towny. However I also made clear that I thought it was a stupid case and he should stop pushing it. But I got ignored until the cop claim, at which point he swung to suspecting me, apparently for the temerity of telling him he was wrong.

I thought his meta read was more stupid than scummy. However he's at it again (see above about asking Prism for his meta), so either he doesn't learn, or doesn't recognize that what he's doing is bad play, or is scum using it to hide.

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Post Post #2263  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:27 pm

Zoronos wrote:^
That's the dude I jailed. I could see him on the most possible scum teams, he didn't seem to have any skeptiscm on LUV's claim (instantly jumped to clearly scum) and his vote on LUV was in prime bussing position.


I find it dumb that your first response to the kill going through is "Oh, Well, Scum must have role blocking power, or a strongman kill", instead of, "the night kill went through so maybe Grendel is town".

Its the equivalent of a tracker watching a suspect that didn't move at night and going into the next day with a vote on the person who didn't make the kill. What's worse is that with only two mafia left, there would have been a 50% chance that you'd block a kill. So me being 50%less likely to be scum Obviously means nothing to you. You're frosting a card board cake, you want that sweet conclusion of Grendel!scum so you stretch the ingredients you're given to meet the taste you want.

In short, you are setting your self up for a terribad tunnel.

In post 2255, Zoronos wrote:VOTE: Grendel


If you don't like me you should come out and say it instead of finding excuses to sr me. :wink:

Pre-edit:
Zoronos wrote:
In post 2260, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 2258, Zoronos wrote:I mean, you could consider reading the rest of the sentence.


Lulz. I like you.

Rephrase: So, your jailing of Grendel was entirely in response to his take on LUV?


Not entirely, but it was a significant factor.
During nightphase I re-read him and LUV and I got the distinct impression they were largely ignoring eachother. I find that behavior is common amongst scum buddies (though not strictly indicating)
Furthermore, he was the primary pusher of the two non-LUV trains yesterday. Putting it all together, yeah, suspicion is high now that LUV has flipped scum.


I won't deny that I kept LUV are tertiary scum read most the game without pushing that read on LUV. It was more due to previous experiences with LUV getting mislynched then his play this game. I thought he was putting some actual effort in this game instead of fence sitting the whole way through, so I'd felt horrible if he flipped town in this situation. But at the same time there wasn't anything particular town from that slot, and he'd say and do things that ping me from time to time too.

I pushed Gamma, and then LUV. Who is the third wagon?

Penguin/Eager? Those were both D1 though. :/

Pre-Pre Edit:
Meta is not garbage, and my case on Gamma was not all meta. Stop attacking my play style. Or is that just you attempting to "further a case" on me because you've literally run out of other reasons why I'm scum?
:roll:

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Post Post #2264  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:57 pm

In post 2263, Grendel wrote:I find it dumb that your first response to the kill going through is "Oh, Well, Scum must have role blocking power, or a strongman kill", instead of, "the night kill went through so maybe Grendel is town".

I already went over why this is likely, and it has nothing to do with you and everything to do with the fact that it was Gamma that was killed. The short version is no sane scum team kills Gamma over me without some jail breaking ability.

In post 2263, Grendel wrote:Its the equivalent of a tracker watching a suspect that didn't move at night and going into the next day with a vote on the person who didn't make the kill. What's worse is that with only two mafia left, there would have been a 50% chance that you'd block a kill. So me being 50%less likely to be scum Obviously means nothing to you. You're frosting a card board cake, you want that sweet conclusion of Grendel!scum so you stretch the ingredients you're given to meet the taste you want.

Only a fool thinks this way; absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. That I didn't get an active hit doesn't change my priors (which were that you were scum). If I went 'Well, I guess I didn't stop the kill, he must be town' I would be the worst jailkeeper player ever unless I knew there was only one scum remaining. It doesn't change the odds that you're scum at all. I scum read you, ergo I jailed you. The results of my (negative) jail have no impact on my reads. Tying those correlations together without further knowledge about how the kill happened is awful play.

Also, belaboring that point with attacks on credibility is super scummy. So.

In post 2263, Grendel wrote:In short, you are setting your self up for a terribad tunnel.

Calls case tunnel. Check.

In post 2263, Grendel wrote:If you don't like me you should come out and say it instead of finding excuses to sr me. :wink:

Attempts to discredit case by calling it personal rather than addressing the points. Check.

In post 2263, Grendel wrote:Meta is not garbage, and my case on Gamma was not all meta. Stop attacking my play style. Or is that just you attempting to "further a case" on me because you've literally run out of other reasons why I'm scum?
:roll:


Your case on Gamma was terrible. I told you it was bad before Gamma roleclaimed. It told you it was bad after he roleclaimed. Attacking that case is *not* attacking playstyle, it is attacking a bad case. So, yes, your meta case is garbage.

That you don't seem to take into account that your 'playstyle' (it's not a playstyle) led you actively wrong and then didn't correct that at all suggests that you either lack the ability to self-analyze, or don't care that what you're doing is leading you to case poorly. That's scummy, because the team that doesn't care if they case town are the scum.

Anyway, back to the checklist:
Reframing scum case as 'attack on playstyle (a NAI factor)' - Check.
Reframes end of post as assumption of end of case - Check.

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Post Post #2265  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:13 pm

In post 2264, Zoronos wrote:I already went over why this is likely, and it has nothing to do with you and everything to do with the fact that it was Gamma that was killed. The short version is no sane scum team kills Gamma over me without some jail breaking ability.


I'm outta the loop here. Boring mentioned it too - which makes me think I've missed something.

If not Gamma due to WIFOM arguments, why you?

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Post Post #2266  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:22 pm

@Zoronos - after 2264, if you're scum I'm scared for all of us btw.

@Grendel - please check my 1971. It's the best counter I have to the vote analysis you've put up (which looks pretty bad admittedly - if you're scum A+ for finding this little nugget).

@Town - does Grendel hopping on feel opportunistic to anyone else? Or does his case on me feel legit? Penguin don't answer - I already know what you'll say.

The only thing stopping me from voting Grendel right now is that he's my counter wagon. I don't want to hop on someone I previously town read just because he's voting me.

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Post Post #2267  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:23 pm

Way too much to respond to but I'm trying to figure out a way to respond to it all, give my current thoughts, and have it be readable. It'll be up in <1 hour at worst.

The biggest thing I can respond to and most want an answer to is this:

For all the people pointing out that my reasoning on LUV was "odd" or "weak", I've had no one tell me why this is the case.
If you are one of those people, I want to know what you thought was wrong with it, because right now it's being used to discredit me without doing any actual legwork.

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Post Post #2268  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:29 pm

Actually I take it back.

Grendel that vote count analysis is a load of BS.

You're ignoring how contentious the Eager wagon was. Gamma hopped on and off at least a hundred times.

If I were scum I could have hopped right onto the Eager wagon with another six people and blended in quite nicely thank you very much.

[vote]Grendel[/b]

Counter wagon be damned.

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Post Post #2269  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:29 pm

Errr....

VOTE: Grendel

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Post Post #2270  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:30 pm

In post 2267, Prism wrote:For all the people pointing out that my reasoning on LUV was "odd" or "weak", I've had no one tell me why this is the case.
If you are one of those people, I want to know what you thought was wrong with it, because right now it's being used to discredit me without doing any actual legwork.


I think you're town so it's cool.
I thought your case was dumb because I understood it as 'you agree with me but have me null that's impossible you're parroting my read'. Which made no sense to me, but it got a scum dead so w/e.

(I am not trying to discredit you; I am either misunderstanding your case, or just think your case was specious. But I don't really care because you're in the town bucket and scum is dead)

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Post Post #2271  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:35 pm

In post 2265, nn30 wrote:I'm outta the loop here. Boring mentioned it too - which makes me think I've missed something.

If not Gamma due to WIFOM arguments, why you?


Because I'm a claimed protective role?
I mean, scum NK strategy 101; If the protector claims, shoot it.
The point of fake claiming doctor is to draw actual town protection out to counterclaim it. I'm Jailer, it should be the obvious kill. That it wasn't tells me something about the scum. The only reasons that I can concoct are either:
1) They're more afraid of a cop getting an extra clear / guilty, and have a way to ignore the fact that the claimed cop is the obvious protect.
2) They have next leveled me.

But (2) is a huge gamble, and one which I would personally never take as scum without a damn good reason. Ergo I am banking on (1).

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Post Post #2272  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:38 pm

In post 2266, nn30 wrote:@Grendel - please check my 1971. It's the best counter I have to the vote analysis you've put up (which looks pretty bad admittedly - if you're scum A+ for finding this little nugget).


He's using the wrong VC to do analysis on the LUV wagon. That was the VC after my counterclaim, and thus has bonus information.

The real VC to look at is this one:
In post 2079, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 2.21
LynchingWith 11 votes in play, it takes 6 to lynch.

Lil Uzi Vert (5): boring, Prism, Gamma Emerald, implosion, Grendel
Penguin Power (2): Zoronos, nn30
Zoronos (1): PenguinPower
boring (1): Dierfire

Not Voting (2): Lil Uzi Vert, Shadow_step

V/LA: Grendel


Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-30 12:31:00)


That's the VC right before the claim. That's the one that can actually tell you useful information.

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Post Post #2273  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:40 pm

In post 2266, nn30 wrote:@Town - does Grendel hopping on feel opportunistic to anyone else? Or does his case on me feel legit? Penguin don't answer - I already know what you'll say.

The only thing stopping me from voting Grendel right now is that he's my counter wagon. I don't want to hop on someone I previously town read just because he's voting me.


This is not a good argument. Don't appeal to others.
Case for thine own self.

If you thought he was town before for good reasons, convince me him's wrong. If you no longer think he's town, explain why you think he's scum.
Don't vote a town read just because they're voting you. That's scumplay.

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Post Post #2274  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:09 pm

@Zoro - or trigger-happy town play. Or bad town play. Which, based on how I haven't seemed to hit the mark with any of my reads, it's probably just bad town play.

I see your point though about it being scummy play. Thanks coach.

I did an ISO of Grendel - and got more town pings.

More proof I don't actually know what I'm trying to look for in identifying scum.

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