Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over
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Prism Dispersion of Insight
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Trimmed a lot of this down to maximize readability. If you think something needs more exposition or if I missed a question, let me know. My vote and explanation comes in the next post.
Stop doing this. You've recognized that a significant number of people are townreading your brash behavior and at this point you have to be exaggerating it for effect. It's already starting to backfire. Flesh out your case, because nn30 isn't scummy to me.PenguinPower wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:06 am
Ok. This is going to be a long one so:
Spoiler: The CaseJailing offensively was the right play. If they have a roleblocker, you were already getting blocked and couldn't both save Gamma and block the kill simultaneously. If they don't have a roleblocker, saving Gamma is useless anyway (would just die N3 reportless) and you instead get a potential guilty ie. If roleblocker you were already 100% negated, if no roleblocker an offensive jail is the best jail. More on this in a bit.
I think scum needed to bus LUV there regardless,nn30 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:56 amWould you be convinced by this vote analysis, then? I'm looking specifically at the LUV votes and Prism. We could also add boring to this but you and I are in agreement with her it seems and Gamma is dead so I'm leaving him out of it.
This is the first vote count that includes Prism voting LUV. His vote stayed there the rest of the day (even though there were a number of opportunities to hop off). Is that enough to clear Prism?especiallyif my scumread on boring is right. I'd look more at why I voted rather than just the fact that I did so.My read on LUV was two parts, the first that you're responding to: The point was
notthat he had me null, but because he specifically said "Nothing to go off of." immediately after plagiarizing a large part of my reasoning. A read worth stealing may not be enough for an alignment read but it is definitely "something to go off of." LUV himself recognized it as a telling mistake-why else would he deny it? The second is that his read on me seemed pretty bullshit, and he couldn't give any examples of "posts that rubbed him the wrong way" when I questioned him on it. Maybe LUV will come in the postgame and tell me that he really didn't mean to do XYZ but with his flip I'm inclined to believe I was on the right track.Shocker: I'm not surprised when someone I am 99% sure is scum claims a PR. And how am I going to bat an eye anyway when I wasn't even there to post? This is my first post after his claim and he was already cc'd by Zoronos:
Prism wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2016 5:01 pmI was starting to scumread Zoronos so I'm glad he's the one cc'ing LUV. Between the two I'm still voting LUV and I'd be surprised if I was wrong.
Lynching outside isn't a bad idea, if we decide to do it my vote is probably going to be for boring. In boring's position as scum I would definitely be looking to bus to get some credibility back after that Day 1 and Maria kill. My next favorite choice after boring isn't really clear, I can see any of Gamma/PP/Dierfire/Grendel and I'm not voting Gamma today.
I figured he was town with the Gamma claim, if Gamma turned out to be scum I was going to revisit it later. Before Gamma outed that I was starting to scumread him again after initially returning to neutral with some thinking over the course of N1. My reasoning on this is given in #1933.
I prefer to stay private. One thing that doesn't require me to link anything is that I have virtually 0 experience playing forum mafia, and the last time I did so was approximately five years ago. If you want me to describe my own scum meta, I can do so on request, but I suspect it will not be helpful due to the credibility issue.
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I'm getting close to committing to POE here.
I have more reasons, but I think that their claims are sufficient to have Shadow_step and Zoronos as Town.
I think that Prism is unlikely to be Mafia given the protracted conflict with Lil Uzi Vert. More powerful than his reasons for voting Lil Uzi Vert is the reaction that Lil Uzi Vert has to those reasons and the way that Prism follows up in conversation. In the quotes below, Prism is pursuing Lil Uzi Vert while Lil Uzi Vert appears to be evading Prism rather than engaging with him, which is an unusual pattern for Mafia partners.
Spoiler: Quotes
A brief overview of the VC also supports Prism for sticking to Lil Uzi Vert throughout D2 (while I see that boring also does this, I don't trust this alone as proof that boring is Town, because she was nearly lynched D1 and might therefore have seen a need to create some distance).
Therefore, I'm strongly reading implosion, Zoronos, Shadow_step, and Prism as Town.
I next compare the wagon on boring in 1150 with that on PenguinPower in 383. PenguinPower receives votes from all other players outside my Town pool; boring receives a vote only from nn30. I would vote for boring before I would vote for PenguinPower.
I'm ambivalent about nn30; certainly the D1 VC were suspicious if boring is Town, but nn30 spends a lot of time on the wagons of players in my POE lynching pool and I don't find the Shadow_step wagon after his claim a likely place for two Mafia players to stack. At any rate I will say that nn30 should not be Mafia with boring (because nn30 and Lil Uzi Vert should not have been stacking on Shadow_step in 900 if eagerSnake is the main alternative to boring). I also may want to rule out a team of nn30 and PenguinPower based on the VC in 2079 (if nn30 were to vote for a partner, the one about to be lynched makes more sense).
So, I'd like to vote for Grendel or boring today.
VOTE: Grendel- Prism
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VOTE: boring
I do not get the boring townreads at all. Boring was coming off a borderline disastrous Day 1 where she got herself into a 1v1 with someone who flipped town, then had someone who hard scumread her nightkilled. It makes a lot of sense to bus Day 2. Reading boring does nothing to convince me that this isn't the case. The Day 1 pushes people are widely citing are offhanded comments here are there while she pushes someone else. Her end of day suggestion to go on LUV over eager was in #1452, when the vote was 5 eager 3 boring with Eager yet to vote. It was already locked between her and Eager and whether or not she'd lose seemed up in the air. A lot of these newfound townreads on boring are just reflexive reactions to the LUV flip, and at least one of them is coming from scum. I still think Maria dying wasn't a coincidence.
Then there's this:It's unhelpful to block Gamma last night, and thus Zoronos isn't going to do it. She acknowledges this. If a random town knows it scum knows it. Why did she expect a Gamma death?
It doesn't help that her posts have come off the wrong way to me all game as that just makes me more prone to confirmation bias.
My other top votes for today so far would be Grendel and PP, still need to reread Dierfire. If boring turns out to be town then I'm pretty lost.- nn30
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@Prism - Cool, thanks for answering my question.
Please ISO boring and look for her interactions with LUV. Does her scumreading / pushing for his lynch a significant portion of day one and all of day two change your read on her?
p-edit - not even how early she wanted LUV on day one?
@Zoro - I asked prism about implosion because I thought Gamma had the potential to give incorrect cop reads (crazy cop or w/e that role is). I now realize that doesn't make sense since we have Gamma's role now. :/
I'll give you more on Grendel tomorrow. I need to go to bed.- podoboq
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eagerSnake - "Fwiw mod steals pagetops while driving. Still think they wouldn't put in 2 people with ascetic?"- Dierfire
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The above reminded me of the quoted post below.
These are evidence to me that nn30 is playing alone in this game, not supported by comrades providing input/advice (Daytalk). This moves nn30 lower on my list of lynch candidates and strengthens my inclination to lynch Grendel or boring.- Zoronos
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nn30 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:49 pm@Zoro - I asked prism about implosion because I thought Gamma had the potential to give incorrect cop reads (crazy cop or w/e that role is). I now realize that doesn't make sense since we have Gamma's role now. :/
I'll give you more on Grendel tomorrow. I need to go to bed.
As I noted previously, I believe (though am not positive) that all the 'cop gives wrong results' roles are banned on this site in Normal games.
I'm not positive though. Someone with more experience on this site would have to pipe up.
(I haven't digested Dierfire or Prism's cases yet, and I'm going to sleep. I will get to that tomorrow.)
I know I promised Boring a readslist, but at the moment the short version is:
Town:
Implosion, Prism, Boring, ShadowStep
Townish:
NN30
????:
Dierfire
Scummish:
PenguinPower
Scum:
Grendel
I need to re-review Diefire, but that's on my 'to do' list for tomorrow. My gut is he belongs in the town-ish bucket.
I think I disagree with Prism's assertion that Boring felt the need to hard-bus from her situation. Certainly after the Gamma train spun up. The thing I'd look for there is if Boring was contributing suspicion to gamma without contributing a vote. I haven't gone in depth to know whether that's true or false. If she did, then maybe it was a bus. If she did not, then almost certainly town. Her behavior around the hammer is also not what I'd expect from scum - She seemed to display honest confusion about the setup meta that would lead to LUV's claim being scum. Scum (in my experience) tend to play with a lot more certainty, since, well, they know it's a fake claim.
Having exactly two scum and one ???? means probably that one of my other reads is wrong or someone is playing scum in a way that I don't expect.
Anyway. G'night folks.- Dierfire
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I wasn't aware that this was still in question, but I can answer this definitively.
The role that Gamma Emerald had, Town Cop, follows the guidelines below.
Wiki wrote: Sane Cop is considered Normal on mafiascum.net, while all other sanities are banned from Normal games. A Cop (or Seer) in a Normal game must return the same results for all non-town roles (excluding Godfather or Investigation-Immune Serial Killer) and for a Miller. Trying to investigate an Ascetic role should return "No Result", the same as if the Cop had been blocked.
Note that, despite the reference to the Godfather role in the description, that role is explicitly prohibited in a Normal game (black list).
Wiki wrote:Godfather was considered Normal on mafiascum.net until an update in April 2016, when it was added to the "explicitly non-Normal" list.
Combined with the result given by Gamma Emerald (quoted below), there should be no Normal mechanism for implosion to be aligned with Mafia.
In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=8444953#p8444953]post 1903[/url], Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm a Town Cop with a Night 1 Town result on Implosion.
I'm uncertain as to whether a Normal mechanism exists for implosion to give that result as a Serial Killer, but I see no reason to suspect that this is the case.- implosion
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Gaaah. I meant to post today and then got distracted.
I'll iso LUV tomorrow and figure out what I think of his connections; I think nn's play today so far reads gut town and am not sure about Grendel but will have more tomorrow.
We also need to think about when we're going to massclaim. If anything, the death of the cop over the jailkeeper lends credence to scumnothaving a roleblocker; if they did they could kill the jk and block the cop indefinitely, which is safer than the alternative of leaving the jk alive and possibly getting roleblocked at 1 scum left.- PenguinPower
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Um.....no.
I kinda did. I mean it's not like my posts are long, WoT-style like yours, so you should have picked up on it.
His entire end of day tunnel on me for using the word "lie" seemed like an attempt to distract and divert the LUV wagon which became scummy upon LUV's flip.- boring
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Prism wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:42 pmVOTE: boring
I do not get the boring townreads at all. Boring was coming off a borderline disastrous Day 1 where she got herself into a 1v1 with someone who flipped town, then had someone who hard scumread her nightkilled. It makes a lot of sense to bus Day 2. Reading boring does nothing to convince me that this isn't the case. The Day 1 pushes people are widely citing are offhanded comments here are there while she pushes someone else. Her end of day suggestion to go on LUV over eager was in #1452, when the vote was 5 eager 3 boring with Eager yet to vote. It was already locked between her and Eager and whether or not she'd lose seemed up in the air. A lot of these newfound townreads on boring are just reflexive reactions to the LUV flip, and at least one of them is coming from scum. I still think Maria dying wasn't a coincidence.
In both these arguments, you're suggesting that I've completely changed my scum-play (and possibly suffered brain damage in the interim). Hard bussing from Day 1 is idiotic. Especially when there are so many bad town running around to provide easy counter wagons. So is killing the person most vocal against you, by the way. Not to mention it being crazy for a scum team to allow that kind of reckless killing pattern.
I can't even.
Okay, assuming that was a typo, and not a senior moment, there's a difference between suspecting and knowing. There's no way that scum would risk a no-kill night. Unless the scum team can't math. Of course, your assumption that I'm scum seems to be based on the belief that I'm stupid, so maybe simple arithmetic is beyond me.- boring
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Honestly, Penguin, your push on nn30 is part of what's making me drag my feet on him. Sure, you hammered LUV, but that was after the gambit, when it was clear he was getting lynched anyway. In fact, I'm more than a little surprised that Zoronos wasn't more suspicious of you, based on the votes, than Grendel.
First, you went after Gamma. Then, when he was revealed as cop, you went after Zoronos. LUV continued to get pressure, but you didn't vote him. I think it's very conceivable that the scum team told him to gambit to flush out any protectors. Then, when he got to L-1 again, and the gambit got its results, you hammered with little warning, to cut off further discussion.
VOTE: Penguin- boring
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implosion wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:12 pmWe also need to think about when we're going to massclaim. If anything, the death of the cop over the jailkeeper lends credence to scumnothaving a roleblocker; if they did they could kill the jk and block the cop indefinitely, which is safer than the alternative of leaving the jk alive and possibly getting roleblocked at 1 scum left.
That might make sense,ifthey're allowed to target the same player two nights in a row. That is, for a team with an RB/JK to be killing Zoronos first. I still think it's more likely for a PR-weak mafia team to kill Zoronos first too, just in case he did decide to Keep Gamma.- Zoronos
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boring wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:56 amHonestly, Penguin, your push on nn30 is part of what's making me drag my feet on him. Sure, you hammered LUV, but that was after the gambit, when it was clear he was getting lynched anyway. In fact, I'm more than a little surprised that Zoronos wasn't more suspicious of you, based on the votes, than Grendel.
First, you went after Gamma. Then, when he was revealed as cop, you went after Zoronos. LUV continued to get pressure, but you didn't vote him. I think it's very conceivable that the scum team told him to gambit to flush out any protectors. Then, when he got to L-1 again, and the gambit got its results, you hammered with little warning, to cut off further discussion.
VOTE: Penguin
Grendel over Penguin was simple; in my experience, scum love being on scum lynches.
Penguin sat off, Grendel did not.
(As noted above, I look at the pre-reveal VC, not the post-reveal)- boring
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@Dierfire - Can you explain why you are certain about Shadow being town? I still have some doubt, based on the facts that he's unconfirmed and eager really was town ascetic.
p-edit: you didn't think the post-reveal had anything to offer? What's stopping PP from joining Grendel in your fully scum pile?- Zoronos
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I talked earlier about what I feel was most instructive in the post-reveal period - Anyone that immediately slammed down 'LUV clearly scum' gained scum points in my book.
Town in that situation, in my experience, will see a moment of confusion where they weigh the claims and decide what to do. Maybe even balk a little at the prospect of lynching a doctor, because what if they're wrong.
Grendel showed no such reservation.
I think there's plenty that's instructive in the post-reveal period; just not the VC.
I'm not sure what's really stopping me from putting PP in the fully scum category. I kinda feel that LUV+Penguin+Grendel as the scum team is just a bit too easy and there must be something I'm missing. My scum case on him hasn't changed much from yesterday. I never got traction on him in the face of a scum lynch, which is really weird.- Dierfire
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@boring
A few of the posts that Lil Uzi Vert directed at Shadow_step seemed like unlikely partner interactions to me.
Lil Uzi Vert wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2016 1:26 amShadow_step wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:22 pmGood this should be an easy game. I have a couple of town reads too.
Need to hear more from Slandaar/Maria/Diet to sort them out.
You keep implying this game will be easy. I seriously hope you have a backup plan for when I flip town.
This reads to me like ATE, which is a technique used against a Town player rather than a partner.
Lil Uzi Vert wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:50 pmShadow_step wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:47 pmCalling me a VI? Okay that is just bullshit.
Esp since you have no idea with am I talking about.
Never called you a VI, I thought you was one though. Why so angry?
And you're right, I don't know what you're talking about, but no one else does either. Mind sharing what knowledge you may or may not have to determine how you're finding this game easier then the rest of us?
This seems a little too confrontational to be staged. Also the "do you mind sharing" bit seems like Lil Uzi Vert is legitimately probing for information rather than teeing up a partner.
Lil Uzi Vert wrote: ↑Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:13 pmYeah I honestly don't know what the hell happened the last 5 pages, just seems like poorly calculated move by Shadow regardless if he's telling the truth or not.
This makes it seem as though Lil Uzi Vert was not in on the plan if Shadow_step is Mafia with an elaborate claim strategy.- PenguinPower
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boring wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:56 amHonestly, Penguin, your push on nn30 is part of what's making me drag my feet on him. Sure, you hammered LUV, but that was after the gambit, when it was clear he was getting lynched anyway. In fact, I'm more than a little surprised that Zoronos wasn't more suspicious of you, based on the votes, than Grendel.
First, you went after Gamma.Then, when he was revealed as cop, you went after Zoronos.LUV continued to get pressure, but you didn't vote him. I think it's very conceivable that the scum team told him to gambit to flush out any protectors. Then, when he got to L-1 again, and the gambit got its results, you hammered with little warning, to cut off further discussion.
VOTE: Penguin
Conceivable. But, your statement is incorrect and a misrep. I was off Gamma and on Zoronos before the Gamma reveal, and hopped of to unvote status after the Zoronos reveal. I voted LUV once I felt more certain he was scum than town PR.- Shadow_step
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I've been giving boring a free pass so far because people seemed to be a soft target and people voting her because of her previous games as scum.
When I attacked LUV on day 1, boring had a "problem" with it.
I think one of [boring, prism] has to be scum because of LUV's readlist.The shadows betray you, because they serve me.
"Chrim and Shadow_step town MVPs. There was a point at the game I was legitimately in fear." ~Zach
"I'm mightily impressed by Shadow's ability to find town PR's, by the way. He was the one directing the first two nightkills." ~Michel- nn30
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Shadow_step wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:51 amI've been giving boring a free pass so far because people seemed to be a soft target and people voting her because of her previous games as scum.
When I attacked LUV on day 1, boring had a "problem" with it.
I think one of [boring, prism] has to be scum because of LUV's readlist.
I think you're reading way too much into LUV's read list.- nn30
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Let's talk about Grendel. Last night I flip flopped on my stance on him a bunch. Truth is I just don't know what he his and my uncertainty is reflected in my flip flopping. I'm going to ISO him and LUV and see if anything that happens strikes me. I will not edit anything I write down as I go through this process - the intention is to show you my thought process and reactions to the ISO as I do it. I will make a conclusion statement at the very bottom.
Spoiler:
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@Grendel - please look at the following spoiler. It has stuff in it specifically for you.
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Conclusion:
I started this read with a bit of Scum!Grendel conf bias in action. As I went through the ISO, I found more and more reasons to town read him instead. The biggest one is that there are a number of thoughts about LUV which he posted which, if Grendel were scum, were deliberately placed bread crumbs. I may be underestimating scum skill levels on this site, but this level of foresight is unthinkable to my own abilities so I'm discounting it here.
Tangentially, I found a few reasons to town read Zoro whereas I had him as null before this.
That being said I think it'sveryimportant that we have a pretty locked and loaded consensus on Zoro being town. He is such a persuasive and logical voice that if he's scum, and he's misleading us, it would mean the game for us.- nn30
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Grendel wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:08 pm
Would you do me a solid and quote your reasoning for tunneling each of these people? (I honestly don't feel like slogging through iso's tonight)
I can't speak for the others, but I seem to recall you were on the tail end of the Gamma wagon, and that your biggest point against him was his inability to keep his reads straight. Right?
I just spent 2 hrs on my last post (isoing you and LUV), so I'm going to wing this one from memory rather than quoting past me. I too do not want to slog through iso's.
Gamma - forgot his reads a whole bunch. A meta read on him where I found in his previous town games he didn't make an effort to state his town reads (which he did a lot of early in day one).
Boring - the easy flip on Eager snake is what did it for me. Once Shadow countered him, Eager dropped from high town read straight down to top scum read.
Shadow - I thought Shadow's conclusion that Eager couldn't be a town ascetic was based on too many unlikely assumptions. At the time, Shadow was assuming that 1) Eager was lying about being ascetic which means that 2) Eager chose to lie specifically about being town ascetic (instead of a more common role such as Miller) and 3) the mod ALSO gave Shadow the very same obscure role that Eager was choosing to lie about.
Instead of seeing the two of them as town, I chose to see Eager as town and Shadow as gambling scum.
Penguin - he reacted weirdly to my having him in a pile of "not town" based on a meta read. He then accused me of lying about my meta read on him which I took as a scum action.
Implosion - I don't know this one from memory (this was a month ago after all). I'll give you the iso quotes instead.
Spoiler:
Spoiler:- Dierfire
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You're incorrect. It was the beginning of Day 1, and I was questioning you. My line of inquiry was trying to solve you as a played. You had voted brazenly which I thought was preemptive. I also wanted to understand why you were willing to just accept that your scum read was voting your other scum read without flinching on either. I concluded by your answers that you were town with an over-inflated ego. If it weren't for the fact that I'm still not sure about there being 2 ascetics, you'd still be squarely in that peg.Shadow_step wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:51 am
When I attacked LUV on day 1, boring had a "problem" with it. - boring
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