Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

[boring]

EBWOP: "My line of inquiry was trying to solve you as a player."

nn30, that's an amazing amount of work. Give me a little time to read through it all this evening, and I'll let you know what I think.

[Dierfire]

@nn30

Regarding your read on Grendel: what do you mean by "bread crumbs" there? Most of the interactions that you have flagged as such seem to be those in which Grendel expresses mild to moderate suspicion of Lil Uzi Vert but does not vote for him. To me, it does not seem unlikely that a Mafia player would decline to defend a partner who was under suspicion but also not vote for that partner; however, you seem to be reading these interactions as evidence that Grendel is Town. Is that correct?

My second question (if you are still working then this is for when you finish) is whether you are moving your vote.

For the record, I am reading Zoronos strongly as Town and willing to lock into that barring role-related shenanigans.

[podoboq]

Official Vote Count 3.04

Lynching

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

nn30 (3): Shadow_step, PenguinPower, Grendel
Grendel (3): Zoronos, nn30, Dierfire
boring (1): Prism
PenguinPower (1): boring

Not Voting (1): implosion

Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-14 13:30:00)

[Shadow_step]

Gaaah. I meant to post today and then got distracted.

I'll iso LUV tomorrow and figure out what I think of his connections; I think nn's play today so far reads gut town and am not sure about Grendel but will have more tomorrow.

We also need to think about when we're going to massclaim. If anything, the death of the cop over the jailkeeper lends credence to scum not having a roleblocker; if they did they could kill the jk and block the cop indefinitely, which is safer than the alternative of leaving the jk alive and possibly getting roleblocked at 1 scum left.

QFT
Part about scum not having an RB

[boring]

What does QFT mean?

[boring]

@Dierfire - I don't think there's any reason to doubt that both Implosion and Zoronos are town. Implosion is confirmed by a dead cop, and Zoronos is as good as confirmed CC'ing LUV.

[nn30]

1)I think Implosion and nn30 are town, Penguin is scum.

I think you and Diefire are town, and boring I have as null.

If Gamma flipped scum I would probably reconsider my reads on everyone.
2) If Gamma flipped town I would look at boring, Diefire and Implosion.

If Penguin flipped scum, I would look at Implosion and Shadow.
If Penguin flipped town, I would probably reconsider my reads on everyone.

@Dier - thanks for pointing that out. I missed it the first time around.

I posted the response here and bolded a couple lines, and then gave myself a WIFOM headache.

On the one hand I don't want to trust the words of conf scum. On the other hand (looking at line 1) above), Implosions is cop cleared and I know my role assignment. Which makes me think Penguin is scum? Since the other people on that line turned out to be accurate? Or should I take it as penguin is town and LUV was just bsing.

Line 2) easier for me to interpret. I can read that as "if i'm still alive, and Gamma is town, let's look here for a mislynch." I don't think this is bussing territory - I think this is LUV, from the grave, telling us who town is. This is good because 2/3 people he names as fishy here (Boring / Implosion) I have really high on my town list and it includes Dier which I needed a way to sort.

I could also be reading into this too much.

*Shrug*

Anyone with experience reading the musings of dead scum want to chime in here? I don't have any game experience to fall back on - I'm deferring to the help of my town. I trust Prism, Boring, Implosion with answering this as I think they're least likely to be scum (and to mislead me with their answer).

[nn30]

@nn30

Regarding your read on Grendel: what do you mean by "bread crumbs" there? Most of the interactions that you have flagged as such seem to be those in which Grendel expresses mild to moderate suspicion of Lil Uzi Vert but does not vote for him. To me, it does not seem unlikely that a Mafia player would decline to defend a partner who was under suspicion but also not vote for that partner; however, you seem to be reading these interactions as evidence that Grendel is Town. Is that correct?

My second question (if you are still working then this is for when you finish) is whether you are moving your vote.

For the record, I am reading Zoronos strongly as Town and willing to lock into that barring role-related shenanigans.

UNVOTE: Grendel

Thanks for reminding me to unvote.

Yes - I am flagging these interactions and I considered two possibilities of their existence.

1) Scum testing the water of a LUV lynch and leaving bread crumbs which he can point back to in the mean time.

2) Town airing out his thoughts.

I am leaning strongly towards two since breadcrumbing seems waaaaaay too hard to me to do correctly.

[nn30]

Here's where my read list is.

Conf town:
implosion (cop cleared)

I have confidence in these town reads:
Prism (he intentionally draws attention to himself for people to state reads on him as scum wouldn't do).
Boring (wanted LUV's booty for two days)
Shadow_Step (day one CC wouldn't have come from scum as it's too risky)
Zoronos (LUV flail voted him - there's a world where Zoro is still scum, but I don't want to live in it)

Weak town read:
Grendel - bread crumb argument. I want people to chime in here who have experience in the site and either confirm or deny that scum have left breadcrumbs in their games.

Null:
Dierfire

Scum:
PP (process of elimination and lack of a reason to town read him for me)

I popped up an ISO of dierfire since I STILL can't sort him and the first thing he did is vote Penguin and put him at 4 votes, which makes them unlikely scum partners to my eyes.
Which, if I'm accurate in my town reads, adds fire to the Grendel is scum argument. Again.

I'm done posting walls for the day - I want other people's opinions on stuff.

[nn30]

One more thing to add - I could also be wrong about Penguin and Dier/Grendel are partners.

[nn30]

My vote is for boring. I haven't seen many good reasons to read her as Mafia, but I've seen none to read her as Town and I think that the VC shows, at a minimum, Mafia players avoiding her wagon.

@Dier - is the fact that Boring was so strongly interested in lynching LUV enough of a reason to town read her and get you to rethink this statement?

[Zoronos]

A quick note while I'm packing - NN I want to respond to your big post in depth, because I disagree with some of your conclusions but the short version is this:

@nn30

Regarding your read on Grendel: what do you mean by "bread crumbs" there? Most of the interactions that you have flagged as such seem to be those in which Grendel expresses mild to moderate suspicion of Lil Uzi Vert but does not vote for him. To me, it does not seem unlikely that a Mafia player would decline to defend a partner who was under suspicion but also not vote for that partner.

I find scum tend to mark their scum buddies as 'neutral' and will constantly express mild to moderate suspicion on them *while not pushing them*. That is classic distancing. "Yeah A is scummy but let's all vote B" is scum play 101. So those things you flag as 'breadcrumbs' to me are potential setups to join the bus in case LUV goes down. Which is basically what happened yesterday. Those were specifically the things that led me to conclude he might be scum with LUV.

They also will largely ignore their partners (since they don't have a motivation to 'sort' them), and as you noted there's about one Grendel post where he actively addresses LUV. And then, as you note, LUV declines to address it. That feels to me like he doesn't care about the answer or feel like he needs to address it. When I'm scum, I try to answer town questions (since town will try to kill me). I know I can safely ignore questions from my scumbros, since they usually will not try to lynch me if I don't answer / answer poorly.
Furthermore, Grendel not following up on his question being ignored indicates that he doesn't actually care about the answer.

Also, in your fifth quote you quoted the same thing twice, but said 'these three quotes'. What did you actually mean to quote there?

[boring]

@nn30 - I appreciate that your mind changed throughout the process. Some thoughts: a) if Grendel flips red, you've put your head on the chopping block; b) I found myself reaching different conclusions than you with a few of the ISO blocks (please don't ask for details tonight. I'm exhausted). It comes down [again] to projecting our own personalities onto the decisions of others; and c) I think this helped me to place both of you as townleans for now.

This is hard.

I'm beginning to wonder if I should look outside of these two for a bit.

I guess I'm not reaching a conclusion tonight.

I guess I'm not reaching a conclusion tonight.

These three quotes occurred 30 minutes apart. This is either really detail oriented scum who is methodically leaving breadcrumbs, or towny. This post feels towny to me.

It's largely irrelevant at this point, but I'm curious as to what your third intended quote was, seeing as you had a repeat in there.

By the way, are you at all willing to give PP a try?

p-edit: Zoronos, you crafty ninja.

[nn30]

A quick note while I'm packing - NN I want to respond to your big post in depth, because I disagree with some of your conclusions but the short version is this:

@nn30

Regarding your read on Grendel: what do you mean by "bread crumbs" there? Most of the interactions that you have flagged as such seem to be those in which Grendel expresses mild to moderate suspicion of Lil Uzi Vert but does not vote for him. To me, it does not seem unlikely that a Mafia player would decline to defend a partner who was under suspicion but also not vote for that partner.

I find scum tend to mark their scum buddies as 'neutral' and will constantly express mild to moderate suspicion on them *while not pushing them*. That is classic distancing. "Yeah A is scummy but let's all vote B" is scum play 101. So those things you flag as 'breadcrumbs' to me are potential setups to join the bus in case LUV goes down. Which is basically what happened yesterday. Those were specifically the things that led me to conclude he might be scum with LUV.

They also will largely ignore their partners (since they don't have a motivation to 'sort' them), and as you noted there's about one Grendel post where he actively addresses LUV. And then, as you note, LUV declines to address it. That feels to me like he doesn't care about the answer or feel like he needs to address it. When I'm scum, I try to answer town questions (since town will try to kill me). I know I can safely ignore questions from my scumbros, since they usually will not try to lynch me if I don't answer / answer poorly.
Furthermore, Grendel not following up on his question being ignored indicates that he doesn't actually care about the answer.

Also, in your fifth quote you quoted the same thing twice, but said 'these three quotes'. What did you actually mean to quote there?

Yeah - you're swaying me here pretty considerably. This is well reasoned and I'm willing to defer to it over my initial impression (my scum hunting leaves quite a bit to be desired).

Fifth quote - pretty sure it was a typo.

I did find it odd that Grendel basically ignored LUV until he started leaving the 'bread crumbs.'

Two questions for you Zoro.

1) Can you find anything outside of what I bolded above to point to Grendel scum?
2) How do you feel about the interactions I included which point to you being town? You seem to think my Grendel bread crumb argument is flawed - are these arguments (which favor you as either alignment I might add) flawed as well?

Last thing - I went back to compare our read lists and ask you about where we differed. Turns out, we don't actually differ at all. This is encouraging.

(I made mine independently of yours. There's a chance you subconsciously impacted mine, but let's not go there)

[Grendel]

I find it dumb that your first response to the kill going through is "Oh, Well, Scum must have role blocking power, or a strongman kill", instead of, "the night kill went through so maybe Grendel is town".

I already went over why this is likely, and it has nothing to do with you and everything to do with the fact that it was Gamma that was killed. The short version is no sane scum team kills Gamma over me without some jail breaking ability.

Well a role blocker doesn’t make sense with a Jail keeper because of the impending priority clashes. Games with both a jail keeper and a role blocker are very rare here. A strong man doesn’t make sense with two town aesthetics because it’d mean that scum get three free kills. Which would be unbalanced. A rolestopper could work, but isn’t a common role. Though, there is the chance I am wrong here. Ultimately it’s not something I need to spend much time adderssing.

You were super vocal about other people using night analysis, but you are now okay with using it because that’s the extent you want me to be scum. That’d you’d take up methods of game play that you previously wrote off has unhelpful, and push it on me.

Its the equivalent of a tracker watching a suspect that didn't move at night and going into the next day with a vote on the person who didn't make the kill. What's worse is that with only two mafia left, there would have been a 50% chance that you'd block a kill. So me being 50%less likely to be scum Obviously means nothing to you. You're frosting a card board cake, you want that sweet conclusion of Grendel!scum so you stretch the ingredients you're given to meet the taste you want.

Only a fool thinks this way; absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. That I didn't get an active hit doesn't change my priors (which were that you were scum). If I went 'Well, I guess I didn't stop the kill, he must be town' I would be the worst jailkeeper player ever unless I knew there was only one scum remaining. It doesn't change the odds that you're scum at all. I scum read you, ergo I jailed you. The results of my (negative) jail have no impact on my reads. Tying those correlations together without further knowledge about how the kill happened is awful play.

Also, belaboring that point with attacks on credibility is super scummy. So.

I’m not saying that you should read me as confirmed town. I’m saying that the night kill going through should have given you some pause to reevaluate. This did not happen afaik and that suggests to me that you’d scum read me whether or not you had evidence point towards scum!Grendel. Also, before you start running your mouth that I’m ignoring that you brought other points to the table, no I’m not. I'm just saying in this instance you would still want to scum read me even if every detail was appernt that I'm town.

How is me telling you that you are being unreasonable with your concclusions scummy?

quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=8468223#p8468223]post 2264 [/url], Zoronos"]

In short, you are setting your self up for a terribad tunnel.

Calls case tunnel. Check.

If you don't like me you should come out and say it instead of finding excuses to sr me.

Attempts to discredit case by calling it personal rather than addressing the points. Check.

That’s not what I said. I said that you are setting yourself up for a tunnel. Predicting what is coming, is different than saying what is.

Dude it’s pretty clear that you don’t like me with how you intentionally step on my toes every chance you get. Every time I do anything this game you follow up with some remark about how the avenues I’m pursing are a waste of time, and how my cases are crap. Like I can’t have my own opiian, or god forbid be right about something. Its like you had to go back and rub in how your more experienced you are, and show me up whenever you can! And no, you saying that its just about a case and not my play style is a lie, you have a low opinion of me, all it takes is some reading in between the lines to see that. Even in this postr your inferring that I wasn’t feel horrible that I tunneled Gamma into claiming, which led to his nk. I legitimately thought he was scum then! So yes, you’re against me, on personal grounds, because I have no idea why you’d keep insinuating things like this unless you have a low opinion of me in the first place!

Meta is not garbage, and my case on Gamma was not all meta. Stop attacking my play style. Or is that just you attempting to "further a case" on me because you've literally run out of other reasons why I'm scum?

Your case on Gamma was terrible. I told you it was bad before Gamma roleclaimed. It told you it was bad after he roleclaimed. Attacking that case is *not* attacking playstyle, it is attacking a bad case. So, yes, your meta case is garbage.

That you don't seem to take into account that your 'playstyle' (it's not a playstyle) led you actively wrong and then didn't correct that at all suggests that you either lack the ability to self-analyze, or don't care that what you're doing is leading you to case poorly. That's scummy, because the team that doesn't care if they case town are the scum.

Anyway, back to the checklist:
Reframing scum case as 'attack on playstyle (a NAI factor)' - Check.
Reframes end of post as assumption of end of case - Check.

A preferred method of playing the game is a play style. Quit nit picking. I can have bad games, btw. I have had games were I did great nailing scum working off of RQS, then wagon analysis, and into night analysis after a couple of days. Once I get to the late game I review my team hunts, to find which connections stayed true based off of later flips. You’re saying based off of one game were things went really sour I should rework the entire way I play? That’s a crap thing to say. If I accused you of a bad play style you wouldn’t immediately start changing how you play to appease others! Why did you expect me to do that?

I didn't assume the case was over. I was voicing my fusteration because I view you case on me to be easily disproven if you were willing to not view things in a b/w perspective.

How do I explain this? I’m actually very against bussing as scum, and would have never done it. I believe that mafia is a team game, and that bussing a buddy is playing like a survivor. I want to work with a team to meet an end goal, and the idea of ditching people to get temporay town read doesn't seem worth it to me. In my case the benefits of bussing, never outwieght the benefits of trying to keep the team together. Like, I’m actually really wary of going in deep as scum by myself. I suck at One v one, and most likely wouldn’t be able to keep up the motivation needed to power through lylo. So I wouldn’t help town lynch scum because I recognize that means that I have to fight harder later on. If I were scum this game I would have dug my heels in somewhere else, or lurked out EoD without voting LUV. I also, for the record, don’t keep scum buddies as back pocket reads. I've kept LUV in null-scum then entire game. Keeping my scum buddy as null-scum would have pout me in a postion where I had to lynch LUV. I wouldn't have done that.

But knowing you. You'll just write this off as "Scum self metaing". I don’t care at this point though. Because I realize that if nothing I said raises any doubts in your head then there really isn’t anything I can do with you. I’ll just move on to something else. I feel like all that's gonna happen with interacting with you is me getting way madder then I should ever be at a game.

Preedit- Ugh, I don't feel like reformatting. I'll just bold response that got cuasght in the spoiler.

[Grendel]

@Grendel - please look at the following spoiler. It has stuff in it specifically for you.

Spoiler:

-The way the Penguin Power handles LUV feels off to me. I may need to look into this more in future.

Funnily enough I would like to see Penguin lynched now that Gamma is highly likely town. But I don't trust you at all. I mean I'd be just as content with yours as Penguin's lynch right now.

I'd like your current thoughts on these statements, Grendel, now that we know LUV was scum and Gamma was town.

Oh yes that, I haven't been think about scum teams like I had mid D2. I was feeling much sure of myself then I did since Gamma outing. I generally do better keeping my tools sharp when I feel I'm breaking the game wide open. That fire has diminished considerably.

Pengiun is an okay wagon.

I'm just plus positive that their must have been scum off the D1 wagon, and everybody has been eliminated but you so...

[Grendel]

What did you mean by bread crumbs?

It sems like you're saying that I was coaching LUV?

Why would I do that when I'd have scum chat?

[boring]

Anyone with experience reading the musings of dead scum want to chime in here? I don't have any game experience to fall back on - I'm deferring to the help of my town. I trust Prism, Boring, Implosion with answering this as I think they're least likely to be scum (and to mislead me with their answer).

I want people to chime in here who have experience in the site and either confirm or deny that scum have left breadcrumbs in their games.

This is my first town game on MS. My other 3 were scum. I've had a few town games on MU, but they go so much faster (36h/12h, typically), that you don't have a lot of time for ISO-diving (unless you have an inconceivable amount of time on your hands). Regardless, to answer your question, the informed minority (scum) are in a position to place all manner of "breadcrumbs", knowing that at least one or two will come in handy later. If I could manage it effectively it as a complete newbie, I assume that any experienced player can figure it out.

[Zoronos]

p-edit: Zoronos, you crafty ninja.

I am the best ninja.
Very sneaky.
You can tell by all the posting I do.

Everyone knows ninjas post the most, that way you never suspect them of being ninjas.

[Grendel]

I had this weird feeling creeping up on me yesterday that Prisum has been trying to pocket me this whole game.

But has made zero attempts at white knighting since I've come under fire. So I guess I was wrong?

[nn30]

@Grendel - the boring wagon where I'm the lone unflipped person (except for Boring of course). Keep in mind that scum have control of NK's. They chose to kill MariaR first day. That could have been me and you'd be saying the same thing to an unflipped MariaR.

It looks hinky, and could add to a case, but it shouldn't be the basis of one. Just like you being jailed and the NK still happening shouldn't clear you of being scum.

p-edit: @Grendel - I am not suggesting you were coaching LUV. I"m suggesting you scum!Grendel saw the writing on the wall (LUV's impending doom) and chose to leave a trail of breadcrumbs suggesting you "thought" about it long enough to seem town when you join the wagon.

@Boring - thanks for the insight. Gun to your head - is Grendel scum?

[PenguinPower]

Well a role blocker doesn’t make sense with a Jail keeper because of the impending priority clashes. Games with both a jail keeper and a role blocker are very rare here.

Yeah. So, super rare, that they are standard in the newbie Matrix6 setup. Can I overemphasize this...

Nope. I can't.

[boring]

@Boring - thanks for the insight. Gun to your head - is Grendel scum?

He's not the towniest player in the game, but he's not in my bottom two. So probably not as things stand. (you don't have enough gym badges to stop me from turning a yes/no question into a full sentence)

[nn30]

@Boring - thanks for the insight. Gun to your head - is Grendel scum?

He's not the towniest player in the game, but he's not in my bottom two. So probably not as things stand. (you don't have enough gym badges to stop me from turning a yes/no question into a full sentence)

I'll allow it.

[Grendel]

I'm getting close to committing to POE here.
I have more reasons, but I think that their claims are sufficient to have Shadow_step and Zoronos as Town.
I think that Prism is unlikely to be Mafia given the protracted conflict with Lil Uzi Vert. More powerful than his reasons for voting Lil Uzi Vert is the reaction that Lil Uzi Vert has to those reasons and the way that Prism follows up in conversation. In the quotes below, Prism is pursuing Lil Uzi Vert while Lil Uzi Vert appears to be evading Prism rather than engaging with him, which is an unusual pattern for Mafia partners.

I'm ambivalent about nn30; certainly the D1 VC were suspicious if boring is Town, but nn30 spends a lot of time on the wagons of players in my POE lynching pool and I don't find the Shadow_step wagon after his claim a likely place for two Mafia players to stack. At any rate I will say that nn30 should not be Mafia with boring (because nn30 and Lil Uzi Vert should not have been stacking on Shadow_step in 900 if eagerSnake is the main alternative to boring). I also may want to rule out a team of nn30 and PenguinPower based on the VC in 2079 (if nn30 were to vote for a partner, the one about to be lynched makes more sense).

So, I'd like to vote for Grendel or boring today.

VOTE: Grendel

Why do you think scum would be scared of stacking on Shadow when Shadow was never the one getting lynched D1?

You may have a point on NN30 not taking advantage of LUV. But I'm usually inclined to think that bussing scum is the leader of the pack. No offence to nn30's skill, but their are other players that would be better canidantes for scum leader then him.

Well a role blocker doesn’t make sense with a Jail keeper because of the impending priority clashes. Games with both a jail keeper and a role blocker are very rare here.

Yeah. So, super rare, that they are standard in the newbie Matrix6 setup. Can I overemphasize this...

Nope. I can't.

In closed set ups like these it is rare! newbies are semi open.

I can even pull up the stats if you want them!

@Grendel - the boring wagon where I'm the lone unflipped person (except for Boring of course). Keep in mind that scum have control of NK's. They chose to kill MariaR first day. That could have been me and you'd be saying the same thing to an unflipped MariaR.

It looks hinky, and could add to a case, but it shouldn't be the basis of one. Just like you being jailed and the NK still happening shouldn't clear you of being scum.

p-edit: @Grendel - I am not suggesting you were coaching LUV. I"m suggesting you scum!Grendel saw the writing on the wall (LUV's impending doom) and chose to leave a trail of breadcrumbs suggesting you "thought" about it long enough to seem town when you join the wagon.

@Boring - thanks for the insight. Gun to your head - is Grendel scum?

Its possible. Do you think scum were trying to set you up as mislynch?

I've already established that I hate bussing. I've already established that I don't keep back pocket reads.

Intially I was kind of guilty to bring up this meta thing since its so cheap, but if I'm up for mislynch just because I wasn't hard on LUV until his pending lynch then screw it. I refuse to be mislycnhed for such a bad associative that seems to be the biggest part of the case in everybody's Scum!Grendel folios. Especially when I don't think it applies to me in the first place.