Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

[Grendel]

Hi, as this is my first post I'd like to say that I look forward to matching wits with you all!

@Dierfire I didn't know you signed up for this game!

@Boring You don't even have a witty one-liner to go with your vote... that's really... boring...

Anybody up for some questions?

I've been finishing up a new set I want to use.

[Grendel]

@Boring You don't even have a witty one-liner to go with your vote... that's really... boring...

You say that like it's a bad thing.

I like it when people make Beowulf jokes. Do you not like people referencing your name in jokes?

QUESTIONS FOR EVERYBODY

1) What is your preferred alignment?

2) Are you often mislynched? If so, why is that?

3) Can you describe your play style concisely in one sentence?

4) If you were the deciding vote at lylo with the slot above you, and the slot below you, which player would you lynch and why? (Ex: 1 would be deciding between 13, and 2. 2 would be deciding between 1 and 3. 3 would decide between 2 and 4.)

5) How excited are you for this game?

Nah Eager is lame, you're the one I want to see in action!

What am I? Chopped liver?

[Grendel]

@Boring You don't even have a witty one-liner to go with your vote... that's really... boring...

oh dear god kill it with fire
VOTE: Grendel

I wanted to counter with another pun but I don't feel especially creative this evening.

So should I take it that you have a vendetta against puns? Dislike monsters of yore? Or something else?

hmmm

Pre-edit: thanks for humoring my questions guys. If its cool I'd like you all to leave me to analyze them, when others get involved people start barking about how "this is a waste of time". Like RVS is so much better apparently.

[Grendel]

Is that a joke post, or your legitimate feelings?

[Grendel]

So you are joking then.

Will you answer the original questions now?

[Grendel]

Grendel's opening post is also potentially scummy.

Anybody up for some questions?

I've been finishing up a new set I want to use.

Why not just ask the questions? This seems unnecessarily roundabout.

If I was wanting town approval before I did something then why did I not wait for a positive response before posting?

Some people are roundabout in the things they do. However, it doesn't mean that they don't get anything done.

That was more me signifying that I was about to post my questions then anything. If I had gotten a response, positive or negative, I would not have pulled back from my original opening.

If its cool I'd like you all to leave me to analyze them,

If this is non-sarcastic then I'm holding you to this - I'd like to hear what actual alignment-indicative or otherwise useful content you're getting out of these questions.

Also of all games to feel like you need to force an RQS or RVS, this is a very silly one. We have a claim. On page one. An unusual one at that. We have a goldmine of material to analyze already - why do you feel the need to instigate an RQS? RQS and RVS as they're usually conceived are both kind of outdated anyway. There's usually enough substance in the first few posts to get reads that are legitimate enough to argue about, even if they're very unstable.

Yes, I like to review the question results to see if I can divine some alignments. Why not contribute to the game with your answers?

I don't know if Eager claiming ascetic at day start is more likely to come from town, or scum. So I'm doing something I'm more familiar with.

I'm interested why you find my entrance poitenally scummy when you feel Zoronos is legitimately scummy. If you thought that Zorones was implying I'm scum then why was your initial reaction to my post, "well that's kinda scummy"? Sorry, but its weird that you'd have me as a tertiary scum read while your top scum is, in your opinion, also scum reading me. If you think he is scum, why do you think I am scum too?

I am not seeing much town intent with these pushes of yours.

Zoronos, you're implying a scumread on Grendel; why not follow it up with a vote?

Because I don't vote the instant I have an inkling of suspicion. Or moreover, because the simple act of asking the questions isn't necessarily scum play. Using the questions as a sole form of contribution on the other hand is (which doesn't necessarily mean Grendel, a townie putting down that kind of list gives the scum room to dwell on it to contribute, so it isn't even that Grendel is scum for doing it, it's just pro-scum to exist). So yes, I'd rather take the hard line early and nip camouflaging play in the bud.

Or maybe these boards don't have a conception of 'fake content' or maybe I'm using the wrong jargon to explain the idea. If I'm unclear, well.

Okay, gun to your head: Am I mislead town, or misleading mafia?

I disagree what you are saying about RQS, but I'll have to wait until I've gotten a decent sample size before I post full reasoning.

In the meantime it'd be super nice if you'd humor me and play along.

[Grendel]

@Boring --I humbly request you answer my set of questions--

I made it up. However, being bold is a bit of a towntell.

I'd say that is more dependent on the player. Some people are more gutsy as town then scum, some more gutsy as scum.

Its important to look for that if you are gonna meta drive some ppls games. But you knew that already.

[Grendel]

Okay, here are my answers to my own questions.

Spoiler: about me

1) What is your preferred alignment?
Town. I don’t enjoy the lies, and manipulation that come with the mafia fraction. Indie is a case by case sort of thing.

2) Are you often mislynched? If so, why is that?

No, I have yet to be lynched as town. I’m very good at accumulating town cred as town due to an open handed play style. I also fight much harder against getting lynched as town because i care more about winning as that faction.

3) Can you describe your play style concisely in one sentence?
A note taker, an over thinker, who attempts to be a positive influence on the game state.

4) If you were the deciding vote at lylo with the slot above you, and the slot below you, which player would you lynch and why? (Ex: 1 would be deciding between 13, and 2. 2 would be deciding between 1 and 3. 3 would decide between 2 and 4.)

Most likely Implosion. I wasn’t a fan of his entrance plus a couple other things i just went over.

5) How excited are you for this game?
Pretty enthusiastic actually! If I had to assign a numerical value it would be 7/10. There are several people here that I’ve played with before, or have wanted to play with for a little while now. Which is better than playing with complete strangers.

RQS analysis

EagerSnake: I at first thought he made a really derpy scum slip by saying he prefers playing as town (1), but then assigns the numerical value of “1 out of 10” to his enjoyment thus far to this game (5). After taking a moment to think I realized that being a NU would most likely effect his enjoyment. Despite giving me very basic responses he has remained consistent with his answers, which is good. My only nitpick was that I was really hoping for more of a response to question (3) then “No”. Also like how he was the first to submit answers, I find that town are more likely to contribute to this first, while scum hang back to see if it catches on or not. Town.

MariaR: I interpreted her responses as light hearted and playful (looking at 2 and 4). Which I attribute towards somebody with little stress. I don’t know Maria well enough to know if she can maintain that level of naturalness as both alignments. I do think her mixing basic terminology is reflective of somebody unafraid of getting called out on petty issues, which I see more coming from a town mindset. I might even say the same thing for (1) and (5) lined up. Maria’s (3) isn’t much better then Snakes. She also submitted answers before cut off. Town lean.

Gamma: There appears to be some mutual level of trust between Gamma, and Snake looking at both responses at (4). I like his response alright. Not confident enough on reading Gamma, he has witnessed me doing RQS before, and is much more likely to know what I want to hear. Even him telling people that I am much more inclined to do this as town then scum doesn’t help because he knows how much I like being town read. Null.

Nn30: Sorry, I’m docking town points for making your first post being a response to my questions. Popular opinion is that RQS helps scum blend in, the thing is that a scum who hasn’t posted in the thread proper before RQS is initiated is more likely to submit answers to RQS before contributing to anything else in the game state. RQS was pretty much the first thing that Nn30 responded to. Answers to (2) and (3) aren’t good, I’ve learned that making a funny instead of actually answering a question (3) isn’t as big a scum tell as I thought, but I still consider it to be scummy. I don’t like (2) because nn30 references multiple games that are similar to mafia in (5), if he has some experience with those then he would have a decent idea how he’ll fair in mafia imo. I do like his enthusiactic (5) tho. scum lean.

Zoronos: He is clearly underestimating my ability to read between the lines. He didn't submit answers to the set, but I value peoples reactions to RQS highly, and use them as part of my RQS analysis. I find that it is common for scum planning to go deep to try and play the “voice of reasoning”, they’ll either treat me like mislead town and correct me, or they’ll correct me while throwing a light scum read my way. Often the ones who choose to paint me as misleading scum are not going to push me. The ones opting to town read me will dig their heels in when I, or they, are questioned about their stance. Clearly Zoronos is falling into the first category. He insists RQS is pro-scum, throws out a light scum read my way, but doesn’t show any desire to push said scum read. In fact if appears that he is back tracking in his next post. If in this instance Zoronos is scum there is a good chance that he is the ‘leader’ of his posse, and that his scum buddies are less experienced players then he is. Scum.

Boring: Not a big fan of her responses. Mainly that she seems really guarded in (3) and (4), and also seems insecure at (2). The combination of the two leave a bad taste in my mouth. I’m also noticing boring’s habit of openly underestimating, and down playing her capabilities. I haven’t seen her town games so I have no idea if she does this as both alignments. Null leaning scum.

Lil Uzi Vert: Really guarded and unhelpful. He has played like this as town before though, so it’s hard to anylse this dude. I will say that I expected him to be more verbose with his stance evasion. This is also the first post of his provide content since a naked RVS vote, so that docks some town points. Null I guess.

Shadow step: He responded to others before submitting answers to my questions. Which says to me that he isn’t occupied with trying to look busy. His answers themselves are okay as well, nothing looks guarded in anyway. Town lean.

Implosion: Given his experience he will most likely gravitate towards a null read here for a while. I like his answers, they were nice and open, but I can’t ID anything that reads specify town or maf from it. I still don’t like how he wanted an analysis without submitting his own answers too. That would be like telling me to go play basket ball without providing me a ball first. Null.

PenguinPower: Really bad. He at first avoids submitting his answers without providing legitimate reasoning why he doesn’t want to. Then later he does out of the blue. I particularly didn’t like how he says “since everybody else is doing it I should too”. It is very scummy to do something just because it is popular; it shows a desire to blend in. As for his answers, (1) reads like wanting pity, and (3) is a guarded answer. Scum.

So I'm looking as something like:

EagerSnake, MariaR, ShadowStep, Gamma, Implosion, Lil Uzi Vert, boring, Nn30, Zoronos, PengiunPower

^with over 3/4's of roster involved in this reads list there is a good chance that all three scum are here. Typically once RQS takes off (more then half the roster submits something) the scum that would normally stay out of it decide its a good Idea to band wagon. Which effectively means I have light town reads on Deirfire, and Slander. What a good turnout.

[Grendel]

@Grendel: you were there for the unclaiming in NPBR, what did you think of it?

After mulling over it I came to the conclusion that Eager is town for a different reason. However, I am pretty sure that Mafiascum site meta favors town with NU claiming early as proper play, and I haven't read any games yet where mafia would cliam something like this D1 for town cred. In fact the one game I played with a mafia esthic, the esthic kept their role under wraps even when visited, instead leaving the investigative role that visited them to believe they were role blocked.

Deirfire can atest to this as he modded that game.

[Grendel]

VOTE: PengiunPower

Almost forgot. This dude needs some love.

Lmao. Can't wait to see how this actually turns out endgame. Are you a first year psych student or something?

Oh, I also don't like how you're ignoring all the content since.

No, I'm an aurtist.

I guess I was paying attention too wrapping up RQS, I didn't want to be posting about this long after it was a relevant topic. If I'm wrong, or slow it only reinforces the negative perception that RQS is useless. So I hit as heavy, and as fast with it as I can.

I'm going back to the other things I skimmed over in a sec.

Prepare for battle penguin!

[Grendel]

Oh, and just to solidify the lulz in endgame because this is great 1.) is honesty (happening now) and 3.) is honesty. I've been here a little over 3 months and my play style has changed every game. That would classify as undefined.

p-edit

You're either bad town or scum.

Ear tagging me with the label "bad town" is bad play. It does not refute me at all, and just makes voting me easy because if I don't flip scum you can just reason that I was bad town anyways.

Though that is more a Non-ai issue that people seem to have via knee jerk reaction to being scum read.

Lil is lynch bait going off my last game with him, and lynching him would be easy to do as scum. Therefore I don't care for that push, and youre heading that push.

You only submitted answers to my questions once it became popular. That's a big red flag dude.

Dierfire posted once this game (before Grendel asked the questions), and Salandaar hasn't posted at all, but Grendel didn't seem to notice that / take that into account when assigning reads. Giving a light town read because they haven't posted at all is nonsense (He says probability of scum in main list, but that assumes a PoE that can't really exist yet unless he's Super Confident in his scum reads on there)

But initial suspicion confirmed, hand-wave or over-analysis of non-alignment-indicating details. Your biggest determiner of order of response is "Who was reading the thread when you posted the list", so treating that as alignment indicating will likely lead you down a hole, since 'people that post more' are correlated with 'people that answer soonest'. So using that as an alignment indicator is a bit specious.

If anything, the answer I'd have been looking most closely at would have been "Are you often mislynched". A Yes to that answer might lead me to believe scum opening an AtE avenue. But he ignores that line of play. <In case people misread since apparently my posts get misread, I'm not saying this makes him scum I'm saying it means I think he's just doing it wrong>

Why are you implying that I couldn't possibly have caught scum?

I guess eliminating Deir, and Slander is a stretch. I could've sworn they both had said something shortly after I opened though. I was hoping I could narrow my search for scum so I don't second guess myself later.

PengiunPower had posted by that time, and didn't participate, so saying that I town read all the players who were around when I opened is a bad assumption. And Gamma who was there is a null read. Assuming that I'm town reading nothing but the most active players is a bad and lazy asspumtion. Gamma is null despite being top poster, you are scum despite being the third highest contributor. That correlation is bunk.

Okay so nobody actually said that they were often mislynched. And if they would have you soiled to opportunity by saying to watch for AtE at (2) in post 96. Only three or four people had submitted answers at that point so you clearly muddied the purpose of that question mr. You did in fact send a light scum read when I probed you, which you back tracked from. Which fits scum "voice of reason" player real snug. If anything you insiting that RQS isn't a valid means of catching scum sounds like scum annoyed that they got caught for the wrong reasons.

[Grendel]

If anything you insiting that RQS isn't a valid means of catching scum sounds like scum annoyed that they got caught for the wrong reasons.

I'm sorry, but you can't scream confirmation bias much louder than this.

I have legitimately caught scum with RQS. I've legitimately identify'd town too.

I don't understand how people will treat gut, and tone like proper scum hunting methods, but will absolutely crap on RQS when is an excersie, that in my opinion, combines those things plus a decent degree of logic, and is an easy way to get a whole rosters worth of reads in sometimes just a few pages. Even if my reads were totally wrong I at the very least got to know a little more about who I'm playing with. I don't consider RQS to be a waste of time.

Utterly baffled by the general "lol no" response I'm getting this game.

[Grendel]

@boring's 202

I like PP's reaction to Grendel a lot, he gets town points.

What do you see in his reaction that is townish?

I'd appreciate anybody else who has a town read on Pengiun to explain why as well.

I don't really see it.

[Grendel]

Oh and, I'm about to get really busy on something, and won't be on tonight.

See you all tomorrow... evening?

[Grendel]

Oh and, I'm about to get really busy on something, and won't be on tonight.

See you all tomorrow... evening?

Putting the answers to the random questions completely aside, can you point to why Penguin is scum, based on things he's posted in game?

His wagon on Lil Uzi Vert is easy. Lil is non contributing and anti town, but his play is a largely null tell for me because he did this exact same thing as town last time I played with him. Heck I, as scum, pushed to get Vert lynched with the same reason that Penguin is here. That Vert is “fence sitty and his lack of stances make him scum lordz”. Lil is a great wagon for scum!Penguin because he can push this wagon through with little consequence once Vert were to flip town.

His move to Gamma isn’t much better because Gamma is known for taking things at face value. Like Gamma is hard town reading, and defended me because I opened with RQS. This is because I played a game as scum where I didn’t open with RQS. When the reason I didn’t open had more to do with me subbing into a game with 20+ pages then my alignment. It’s the same thing with Vert, Gamma has an experience with town!Vert being fence sitty and non-contributory, so he thinks Vert is town here. Penguin’s biggest reason for voting Gamma is because Gamma tr Vert, everything else seems like that Penguin seems to find scum about Gamma looks like pretty normal Gamma play too honestly.

Basically Penguin has only pushed for wagons on easy players.

I also don’t care for announcing I’m town without explaining why. All the more awkward considering that he seemed to think i was scum, (or bad town), just one page earlier. I only posted a couple thought in between those points. I don't see how Penguin would have come to that conclusion as quickly as he did based solely on that. All I really did was defend my RQS, and tell Penguin that calling me "scum, or bad town" is an ugly knee jerk reaction. I could totally see Penguin as scum backing off because he decided I wasn't an easy lynch.

[Grendel]

@Grendel, and @anyone else who wants to know why PP is town: PP's reaction in 219 and 221 makes me think town for a few reasons. 1, I think he shows genuine contempt, and that contempt indicates that he genuinely doesn't think your points have merit, meaning he's either town, or he's scum who thinks your line of reasoning is completely wrong which I find less likely because 2, it's antithetical to what I saw of PP's play in my other game with him. I pressured him a lot in that game; I was town, he was scum and he was, I think, a bit more hesitant to engage on such a direct level with calling the arguments I was making bad. He answered the queries I had about him and didn't really comment as much on the quality of my reasoning, iirc. Or at least it doesn't stick in my mind. I think the reaction of calling you bad town or scum is relatively unlikely to come from the scumgame that I saw in that game. 3, those posts in addition to contempt show a certain level of him feeling like he's in-the-right (since he's talking about how he was just being honest with his answers) that I think is consistent with town who feels like they've been accused for bs reasons.

I don’t know how useful metaing him is when he self proclaimed that he changes up his style in every game he plays. Remember how his play style is ‘undefined’. If you can reliably meta his plays then that would mean he was holding back information, and fabricated some elaboration when I called his original response guarded... Or it could mean that Penguin over estimates his ability to inject variety into his games.

In your last game with him, how much ‘ethos’ did you carry? E.i. would it have been scary for Scum!Pengiun to 1v1 you in that situation?

Since RQS is generally viewed as too abstract to be effective by the masses I see contempt in this situation could come from either faction. I could see him doing 219, or 221 as either faction. Also, at the time I’m inclined to think that Penguin would have felt safe from my case, as I had been generally null read, and he was removed as a viable lynch, even heading a wagon against another player. I had not established anything that resembled intelligence, assertiveness, or credibility. Three things that make scum flighty. Nothing about me up until then spelled “threat”. Therefore, as scum he was in a good position to brush off my argument.

Though none of this points to Scum!Penguin specifically. I do think it proves that your observations don’t necessary point toward Town!Pengiun.

How do you feel about Penguin’s lack of interaction with me at page 3 top, voicing an implied disinterest in RQS before ignoring me. Then later popping in after all the other active players had submitted answers and deciding to submit his too so he wouldn’t be “left out”?

Since everyone else is playing...I don't want to be left out.

It looked like scum trying to stay in popular opinion.

[Grendel]

@nn30 I didn't actually say I had a town read on Gamma, just that the way he meta reads people looked typical for him.

He has been something of a null read.

I've seen scum Gamma, and while nothing has been pointing towards this, there hasn't been a lot that looks like town!Gamma either. I need more time to sort him, last time we played together I really jumped the gun with my sr on him. Like him just laying down "x is town" isn't enough substance for me to be like, "Oh yep, this is Obscum over here". Especially when I feel there are scummier options on the table.

I'm from the same forum that Gamma is from and it has been mentioned enough this game that I'm surprised you didn't notice.

Lastly, Why did you preface your post with a town read on me?

[Grendel]

@Gamma Outside of how I opened my game why are you town reading me?

I would also like an explanation as why Implosion went from scum to town, and why Shadow step went from town to what ever "need to contribute" means.

Lastly What do you think of Penguin?

Pre-edit

@Grendel

I prefaced my post with a town read on you so that you know I'm not coming at you from an antagonistic point of view.

Hmm, okay. I thought you might be worried I'd brush you off or something.

Which I wouldn't have btw.

[Grendel]

You mean the fake hammer?

Aside from scum actually slipping, which is rare, I think its way too easy for scum to fake "town reactions".

And I don't really like Shadow setting that up because it is a dumb tactic. I don't know if that says anything about his alignment. Except maybe sifting potential blame on Eager that is kinda scummy. I would like to know which players Shadow step got town reads from that though. Lots of people think nn30 is town. Saying MariaR looked town, but is good as faking reactions is not helpful. I didn't notice any other reads except a mutually exclusive relationship between LUV and you. Nothing that useful.

@Shadow Did you get any reads from the fake hammer that were actually useful?

As for Eager, I think he knew it was a fake hammer. He did unvote right after to prevent an actual hammer from occurring. So my tr on Eager stands. As for the others, I still think MariaR is town. Still null on Gamma. I am more open to town!nn30. Still scum reading you, Penguin. Really no big shift in my reads except some questions toward the shadow slot, and some confidence that nn30 is town now.

For reasons outside the fake hammer my scum read on Zoronos is dampening. Several of his post looks really good and make sense. But I'm wary of being duped. Also feel like ZoronosXPengiun is a real, viable possibility. While Zoronos put in some words on how you are suspicious I don't think he ever sounded comfortable lynching you, Penguin.

[Grendel]

Does anybody have some hypothetical scum teams cooked up?

I can't I.D. third scum for my scum team and want to hear some interactions people may have caught between people.

A lot of people I originally thought could be with Penguin were, or are, on his wagon.

Pre-edit

I thought I was bad town?

You sound like you trust my opinion.

[Grendel]

I can't I.D. third scum for my scum team and want to hear some interactions people may have caught between people.

Dude...you're making two levels of pre-associative flips? Wow...this is going to be lulzworthy at the end.

I thought I was bad town?

You sound like you trust my opinion.

Well, I had put you as regular/almost insightful town until the above.

I've been trying to hunt for the whole team all at once so I can avoid tunnels.

Who do you think could be scum with Gamma?

@Gamma Outside of how I opened my game why are you town reading me?

I would also like an explanation as why Implosion went from scum to town, and why Shadow step went from town to what ever "need to contribute" means.

Lastly What do you think of Penguin?

I never stated I townread you, but this is your normal townplay, so yeah I townread you because your play is towny.
Implosion became town because he a) actually read LUV's post and b) still scumread me after like half the players stated a townread on me. Shadow needs to contribute because he hasn't seemed to have done much beyond voting LUV and PP.
PP seems like scum. His push against you has been very bad looking.

You trying to call his methodology bad. Also, as Grendel mentioned, you've seemed to be trying to remain in popular opinion.
Now that we have a VC:
VOTE: PenguinPower
And I didn't say you were town, that statement before was sarcastic. I had already been townleaning Implosion. Not the same case with you.

Are you scum reading Zoronos? Because you voted one of my biggest critics for being critical of me, which would imply you had a town read on me at least since then. For you to suddenly say that you weren't town reading me doesn't add up to how I recalled your actions. What specificly about my play is townie?

Also, Why is the crux of your vote for Penguin "what Grendel said"?

That puts you in a position were you could blame me if Penguin flips town. And as a whole is not informative, rather is lazy.

[Grendel]

UNVOTE:

I need to sort Gamma asap

[Grendel]

I have a couple of town reads and a few nulls.

Who are they?

[Grendel]

Shadow needs to contribute because he hasn't seemed to have done much beyond voting LUV and PP.

But he is still town to you?

[Grendel]

I've been trying to hunt for the whole team all at once so I can avoid tunnels.

Who do you think could be scum with Gamma?

Yeah...that's bad.

Right now, it's Gamma. He's further ingratiated the scum ranks in my mind. I don't like LUV's silence...but we also have another slot that has done F all that I would like to hear from. Not going to try and find all scum D1.

It is a pretty common scum hunting tactic actually...

Scum with Gamma. Do you really think its LUV?

If Gamma is scum with LUV that hard defense was really ham-fisted.

So you are scum reading the sub?

You don't care for PoE if you don't like hypothetical scum teams. And the only reason to suspect the sub would be by PoE.

[Grendel]

Are you scum reading Zoronos? Because you voted one of my biggest critics for being critical of me, which would imply you had a town read on me at least since then. For you to suddenly say that you weren't town reading me doesn't add up to how I recalled your actions. What specificly about my play is townie?

Also, Why is the crux of your vote for Penguin "what Grendel said"?

That puts you in a position were you could blame me if Penguin flips town. And as a whole is not informative, rather is lazy.

I was being critical because it was typical town play for you. I believe I stated I needed to see more to sort you out once or twice. Zoronos is still a bit of a scumread. Actually, my reads are starting to get mixed up. I may have to actually sort them out with a list.
PEdit: I am starting to scumread S_s though.

What specificly about my play is townie?

You not answering this. You just keep repeating that my play is town, like I'm some kind of mind reader that knows what you mean. Explain please.

Where did you say you were trying to sort me? Quote it.

A reads list would be good.

[Grendel]

@Gren I think teamhunting is one of the worst things you can do sooo early in the game because some of the team may not have even posted a bunch so you'll be looking for an answer that can't be solved.

Well like I said, my D1 votes are one step away from tunnels. This has helped me from that by seeing if my top scum read isn't fitting with anybody I can conclude thay are town.

But this isn't super important discussion.

What thoughts can you share?

I get that you are a "hold the cards close" kind of player, but I kind of want to see how in tune we are.

As for why I townread Grendel, I guess it's just that this feels a lot like NPBR again.

When did you come to this conclusion?

I was top poster, and really loud there. Here I've just been "another voice". Where as I kickstarted NPBR to the point that I was the closed thing that town had to a leader D1.

I don't get how you could say I have been that big an influence to this game.

[Grendel]

Grendel - His line of speculation appears faulty, but not scummy. Probably town.

But Boring, if you feel my logic is off base the why are you sharing my top scum read?

If I'm really off my game and I started the Penguin wagon wouldn't that give you pause?

[Grendel]

Hey everybody, I'm thrilled to join the game and can't wait to jump in.

That said, this is my busiest weekend of the year which makes it difficult to do so. I'll try to do a more comprehensive read on Sunday but for now I'm frozen in time at Page 12. In the meantime I'm going to VOTE: boring whose #196 left me wondering if she was trying to find inconsistencies or trying to find scum.

Cool dude. (They're called RQS questions)

If your still on rn I'd like to hear some more of you thoughts up to page 12.

@Grendel

Does anybody have some hypothetical scum teams cooked up?

I can't I.D. third scum for my scum team and want to hear some interactions people may have caught between people.

A lot of people I originally thought could be with Penguin were, or are, on his wagon.

As I've outlined (351), I think that Gamma Emerald looks like a viable partner for PenguinPower. I also want to flag the quote below as suspicious, but I think that it's probably not productive to think too hard about this from an associative perspective right now.

Btw...not liking Slandaar right now. Hate. Absolutely hate. Prodging.

The timing is weird to me (¿why is the absence of Slandaar provoking absolute hate at this point?) and feels more like PenguinPower is looking for something to say than like PenguinPower has a real comment on Slandaar at this point.

Not sure about the idea of penguinXGamma, its possible they are distancing but it seems unlikely given these last few page between them.

If you could explain these reads soon that'd be nice-

I'm out of time for this interval. I'll back in a few hours to discuss why I'm reading implosion, Grendel, and nn30 as Town (I could tentatively add eagerSnake and Zoronos as well).

Mainly interested in town!Implosion.

I really want you to be town Dier!

Pre-edit

Good lord guys, what a party.

Even blind acorns find nuts on occasion!

Sweet mango chutney, I wish I could say I worded it like that on purpose. I'm an old lady, and it's past my bed time. I'll see you crazy kids tomorrow.

Well I gotta admit that was pretty funny.

I've got to get off too me thinks.

[Grendel]

And LUV seems to be doing...what?

Trying to actively contribute.

Not really. He has been pretty lack luster poster. Even going off the last game.

[Grendel]

page 18 has me doubting my initial scum read on Penguin. Interactions felt town. Also part of the reason I unvoted Penguin in the first place.

My interactions with Gamma didn't feel good at all. He kept giving lazy answers to my questions, and used my argument on Penguin as reason for voting that slot.

Trouble is that Gamma keeps bumping his game threshold up so I don't know if this lack of effort in producing original content is due to being in too many games, or if its actually AI for him.

I should decide were to vote later tonight.

[Grendel]

This is hard.

I'm beginning to wonder if I should look outside of these two for a bit.

[Grendel]

I guess I'm not reaching a conclusion tonight.

[Grendel]

VOTE: Penguin

I'm back on Penguin. Not feeling enough conviction for a Gamma lynch, mainly because many reasons I'd normally scum read somebody are not effective for reading him. While things like him using my own case against Penguin bothered me, I've seen him sheep other peoples cases as town with out a shred of original thought. Him struggling to explain his read on me beyond a previous game also bugs me, but Gamma generally seems to struggle with explaining himself, which is mostly likely why he endorses what others say as his own. While Penguin gave me some town vibes with his reactions that's all I saw coming from his slot that hit my town radar.

The way that Dier has been posting has been weirding me out a bit. I know that I'm Ob!town to some people who know me well enough, and that I may have instigated it further by my friendly attitude towards him, but Deir is being very defensive of me. I can't tell which fractional intent this is more likely to come from. If we were strangers I'd say its kinda scummy, but we aren't so...

@LUV Lets chat a bit:
How do you feel about the two leading wagons, as well as the individuals on them?
And if this were EoD which wagon would you join?
In this hypothetical situation where would you look next if the one you picked flipped scum? if they flipped town?

I want you to take more active stances. Your note taking, and your otherwise low key posting is not helping me get a hold on your alignment friend.

[Grendel]

The dichotomy between Boring and Maria here is interesting; Maria is hard to sort because she is content light (apparently purposefully), and Boring is hard to sort because some of her content makes me go "Yup, that's scummy def" and some is "Well, that is pretty darn reasonable".

Throw Grendel in there and lol

You suspensions of me actually strength my town read on you. The Scum!Eager I played with was totally okay with being a strong tr of mine. Your paranoia here makes me all the more sure you are town.

I mean, if you are scum you a mighty fine actor lol.

[Grendel]

I believe that Grendel is town, and have said that a couple times now. I think most of his questions are bad and his lines of inquiry (prior to today. I really haven't taken the time yet to process the stuff that has happened today) betray a lack of knowledge about what behaviors are actually scummy. His beliefs, whoever wrong or poorly guided, seems sincerely held however. He's trying to solve the game, or at least giving a damn good impression that he's trying to do so. That says townish to me.
One thing that stands out to me is that he seems to think calling something wrong and calling something scummy are one and the same. Which is not true, but it is an indication that he very much wants to be taken seriously and have his views respected.

Those are some pretty big generalizations to make about my play style. I do tend to view people who are consistently incorrect, as more likely to be scum then somebody consistently correct. Just like I recognize that not all liars are scum, but generally speaking scum are more likely to lie. I guess its a bit of an unfair comparison since town is more likely to be incorrect on pre lynched town, or scum then they are to flat out lie. But its that best I can do. Its more like, "Are they being wrong in a deceitful way? or do they back track when they are wrong?" stuff like that. Ultimately nothing is set in stone, sometimes some OB!town can be super off base, in that instance I wouldn't assume their scum because a lot of their other actions don't add up to being deceitful.

But enough about me

How interested are you on joining the Penguin wagon currently?

predit

The dichotomy between Boring and Maria here is interesting; Maria is hard to sort because she is content light (apparently purposefully), and Boring is hard to sort because some of her content makes me go "Yup, that's scummy def" and some is "Well, that is pretty darn reasonable".

Throw Grendel in there and lol

You suspensions of me actually strength my town read on you. The Scum!Eager I played with was totally okay with being a strong tr of mine. Your paranoia here makes me all the more sure you are town.

I mean, if you are scum you a mighty fine actor lol.

Does this seem uncomfortable to anyone else?

Why and to what extent?

I noticed how Eager wasn't content for me to scratch him behind the ears with a town read this game and thought it was townish. And decided to mention it while it was still on my mind.

[Grendel]

@Prism So Penguin is a stronger town read then six people just because you liked his original reaction to his wagon?

What worse is that you are assuming that Penguin isn't matching his scum game based off the opinion of your top scum read!

It was Implosion who said that this game isn't reflecting his experience with Scum!Penguin.

[Grendel]

The dichotomy between Boring and Maria here is interesting; Maria is hard to sort because she is content light (apparently purposefully), and Boring is hard to sort because some of her content makes me go "Yup, that's scummy def" and some is "Well, that is pretty darn reasonable".

Throw Grendel in there and lol

You suspensions of me actually strength my town read on you. The Scum!Eager I played with was totally okay with being a strong tr of mine. Your paranoia here makes me all the more sure you are town.

I mean, if you are scum you a mighty fine actor lol.

Does this seem uncomfortable to anyone else?

Why and to what extent?

I noticed how Eager wasn't content for me to scratch him behind the ears with a town read this game and thought it was townish. And decided to mention it while it was still on my mind.

It read to me like "greetings, fellow town-player. You are definitely town, and not scum. I am also not scum. You can see it clearly printed on my nametag. I will now go and do town things. Because I'm town."

I was open to the idea that I'm just being paranoid, which is why I opened the floor, rather than just sticking it into my notes.

You're free to over analysis me as much as you want.

I do think its kind of funny that I just got finished saying how I town read Snake's paranoia, and suddenly you are acting paranoid of me too.

[Grendel]

Wow. so I don't have time to read the nearly 20 pages that popped up over night.

I'll have to come back to this later when I have more time to burn. :/

[Grendel]

Right, so Shadow has no motivation as scum to pull a gambit like this. Shadow is town.

Eagar... well I am wary of a world were two town aesthetics exist, but his play falls more in line with how I'd expect scum to play in this situation. Dissuading a wagon on both claims, assuring the other claim that they are both town (then trying to scare em' if they can't convince em'), and most importantly sowing seeds of doubt. Lines of thought like, "Lynch me and it'll be two mislynches in a row", are a step away from fear mongering imo.

If we don't overcome this, we will almost certainly lose.

Lol, I sound just like this when I'm caught scum. "Don't lynch me guys, It could mean the game!"

So when I flip town you're lynching s_s? Everyone that is voting me is because "2 town with ascetic no way" so that applies to s_s unfortunately once I flip town

If Eager thinks that Shadow is town why would he be making little jabs like this to scare him off? If Eager were to keep trying to convince Shadow he, Eager, was town instead it would have come across as genuine, the way Snake is going about this doesn't look like town trying to convince town.

If Eager is town why wasn't he doing more to convince people he is town at this point?

All I saw was belly aching. While I don't doubt the legitimacy of him being frustrated, it certainly gave him a good excuse to not actually do anything helpful.

@shadow Okay, and when I flip town, how do you intend to survive tomorrows lynch?

This one here in particular, not only is it a passive scare tactic, but it reminds me a whole lot like how Scum!Snake tried to avoid getting strung up in the last game we were in together. He tried to dissuade his wagon by appearing like a town thinking in the long term with questions involving what happens after he flips town. I will say though that the couple posts before that, were he asked how shadow would read Gamma, and boring tomorrow, were actually okay lines of thought.

I think there were a few other times Eager did something resembling data generating, and creating discussion, but for the most part he just shouts that he and shadow are town, and leaves it at that.

[Grendel]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: EagerSnake

I was going to look more into boring since she is the leading wagon, but I feel like Snake is much scummier atm.

[Grendel]

If it weren't for the cc sending me reads all over the place I think I'd be less comfortable being on the same wagon with PP.

This has been quite a development.

[Grendel]

Hey. Grendel. I'm actually town but nice wallpost

Well, I'll look into Boring too, but many of your posts have been down right manipulative.

Playing into unknowing majority's fear is a really scum oriented strategy.

[Grendel]

Fwiw mod steals pagetops while driving. Still think they wouldn't put in 2 people with ascetic?

I will say that this ad hommin was pretty funny.

Hey. Grendel. I'm actually town but nice wallpost

Well, I'll look into Boring too, but many of your posts have been down right manipulative.

Playing into unknowing majority's fear is a really scum oriented strategy.

How has he been doing that?
Also, your summary has made me rethink again due to what I did Day 5 in NPBR. Vote stays for now though.

Saying things like, "you're gonna lose if you vote me" is playing with people's fear of losing.

He said things like that on several occasions. did you not read what I said?

[Grendel]

The sheer absurdity of a day one CC is what boggles me about all this. If I were scum, I would never early claim ascetic in thread. I'd sit on that into end game and never ever mention it. Town can't cop me / roleblock me / track me? Awesome I'm the best scum.
I'd also never try to counter claim a town ascetic, since that's just a bad 1 for 1, which is not a winning play for scum.

Which means either Eager or SS don't play scum along the same axis that I do, or that they're not scum. Or are just crazy people who make bad choices.

Well that gives me some pause. Hm.

While at face value there is little motivation for maf-sthic to claim at day start, it is the lack of motivation to do it that would make it a strong gambit right?

If one of them is scum it has to be eager. Scum!Shadow would be shooting himself in the foot with a cc like this.

My left field conspirsy theorist side wonders about the possibility of them both being scum, and then cc each other to give the survivor Conf!town status. Though a play like that would be better later into the game, with both having some threat of being lynched. Still pretty funny to think about though.

I didn't realize that was what you said it was, Grendel.
Any response to what I said about NPBR?

What about NPBR day five did you want to discuss?

[Grendel]

Are you confident enough to Lynch s_s after I flip town?

Nope, I really don't think shadow would be scum in this situation. Regardless of your alignment.

I don't like how you keep repeating this question as an attempt to dissuade your wagon btw. You keep making it sound like we have to lynch you both. Whereas, you have been very sure Shadow is town this whole time. If you think shadow is town you'd be advocating against his lynch tomorrow if you were lynched today. Not setting up his lynch tomorrow, or rather complacent and positive that his lynch has to go done.

[Grendel]

I'm discussing the fact I argued that PKFP and Marietta could both be town Role Cops.

Oh yeah that.

I might need to reread the exchange though. Not sure if MariaR would do this as scum. It'd be very risky to say the least.

[Grendel]

If the whole base of the argument against me is there's no way there's 2 town ascetics then by that reasoning when I flip town ascetic you have to lynch my cc.

I didn't say there couldn't be two town ascetics.

I think that your responses to things have rubbed me the wrong way since the cc, and that if you aren't lynched today you will inevitably be lynched at some point because of "what if". Making you a threat in lylo, regardless of your role.

If you do flip town ascetic then I will probably come to the conclusion that we had two because shadow's cc is a bad move for scum.

And that is assuming you even flip town. You most likely aren't.

Lastly, forget the "no way there is two town ascetic roles", if you think he is town you would be against the two player trade in. Not say it has to happen if you are lynched.

Wait, so Grendel in that post was super sure Eager was town. He was reiterating that Eager's scum read on him made him sure Eager was town.
Grendel is voting Eager right now... time to go back and check that reasoning.
UGH SO MUCH ISO DIVING I JUST WANT TO DO OTHER THINGS NOT FORUM POST.

I thought his paranoia was town like, reinforcing the town read I got from RQS an stuff.

A lot of that was thrown out the window when eager was counter claimed. Do counter claims not shake up your reads at all, or what?

[Grendel]

If Snake does flip town I will advocate lynching boring tomorrow.

[Grendel]

If Snake does flip town I will advocate lynching boring tomorrow.

This is a really bad post. I'm not sure if there's many other ways to put it. Why do you not just advocate it now?

I'm still selling Implosion votes on the cheap if anyone wants to buy, it's a great product, the R&D team really came through, we just need some marketing and consumer awareness to really get the boost we need.

lol Prism.

If you think I should be voting boring, pending scum read based off a pending flip. Why aren't you voting the wagon you are most interested in?

Like your Implosion scum read is all kinds of weird. You think he is scum yet you trust his words on Penguin. You want people to vote Implosion without putting a vote there yourself.

idk if that means anything AI yet, but its definite shows something that isn't a positive here.

Preedit: you guys are fast typers...

[Grendel]

UNVOTE:

Sans Shadow, none of my town reads are on the Eager wagon. This can't be a good thing.

I need a day to reevaluate things.

[Grendel]

I was distracted by Grendel.

You were in awe of my stunning magnificence weren't you?

[Grendel]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: EagerSnake

I was going to look more into boring since she is the leading wagon, but I feel like Snake is much scummier atm.

Hey. Grendel. I'm actually town but nice wallpost

Well, I'll look into Boring too, but many of your posts have been down right manipulative.

Playing into unknowing majority's fear is a really scum oriented strategy.

So, Grendel, you said you'd look into Boring. What did you come up with?

(I read back over the ISO like I said, I see the pivot point onto Eager from his previous Eager-Town, Boring-Suspicious stance. Not entirely convinced by it, but let's run this line of questioning and see where we go)

Yeah i'll look into boring. I was really hoping that Eager would be an open shut case, but I'm beginning to think its not.

Snake also pointed out that he parked his vote on Boring the entire day - and nobody nibbled - meaning 0 scum tried to hop onto the wagon and test the waters(implying that Boring herself is scum, causing the lack of interest in her wagon). I like this logic a lot.

Bold is mine. Since we're all fans of the complicated and intricate in this game, why could scum not orchestrate that in their day chat?

Are you implying that scum are trying to set up a boring lynch later?

I mean, why would scum consciously say, "lets not vote boring fam", if she were town. It seems like a pretty unlikely thing for town to pick up on normally. Therefore not something that scum would preemptively set up.

Do you think boring is town then?

Pre-edit
I hate playing when everybody is on all at once because I always feel like I'm getting flooded out by other's content .-.

I'm also disturbed by the fact that virtually no one has read me for alignment or outed a single read on me in 24 posts.

Grendel's recent one is the closest attempt.

You poor, attention depraved soul.
I'll be sure to look more into you soon.

[Grendel]

Are you implying that scum are trying to set up a boring lynch later?

I mean, why would scum consciously say, "lets not vote boring fam", if she were town. It seems like a pretty unlikely thing for town to pick up on normally. Therefore not something that scum would preemptively set up.

Do you think boring is town then?

I'm not implying anything. I simply stating that nn30's case would be good logic without day chat. Not necessarily so with. I also haven't hidden my town read on boring, and have never stated anything otherwise.

Okay, its just been twenty plus pages since you last mentioned it, and I wondered if you still had a town read on that slot.

If I didn't think you were scum...yeah. Still want eager to flip.

I figured this would be the case, but did it anyway to see your response.
No real read change, but I've decided that you cannot be scum if Dier is town. What scum would reject an offer like that?

I thought you viewed mutually exclusive relationships as pro-scum.

[Grendel]

I'm really afraid I don't have the time to read up on anyone tonight.

I have a big project due in a couple days that I've only just started. Sorry.

Pre-edit

If I didn't think you were scum...yeah. Still want eager to flip.

I figured this would be the case, but did it anyway to see your response.
No real read change, but I've decided that you cannot be scum if Dier is town. What scum would reject an offer like that?

I thought you viewed mutually exclusive relationships as pro-scum.

What do you mean by mutually exclusive relationships, and when did I say that?

I mean you are living in a world were it has to be Town/scum, not town/town, or scum/scum.

I seem to recalled you thought that it was a great way for scum to "set up lynches". Scum call these two lynches Town/scum, and when the first flips town they can move onto the other because, "they both can't be town".

Wasn't those your words in the newbie we played together? Wasn't that the whole reason you investigated me back then?

[Grendel]

Grendel has been prodded

Sorry for the absence.

I will be able to catch up tomorrow.

I would do it right now, but I'm operating on less then four huors of sleep.

[Grendel]

In other news I'm very curious to hear a lot from Grendel on boring after this...

I was going to look more into boring since she is the leading wagon, but I feel like Snake is much scummier atm.

Well, I'll look into Boring too, but many of your posts have been down right manipulative.

If Snake does flip town I will advocate lynching boring tomorrow.

Yeah i'll look into boring. I was really hoping that Eager would be an open shut case, but I'm beginning to think its not.

For those not seeing what I am here: it looks really very waffly. I question grendel having this consistent attitude near the end of the day of "I'll get to boring later."

I was very busy as the day started coming to a close, it wasn't so much, "I'll get to boring later", as it was, "I'll get to the game later". I was not in the mood for much rereading.

In fact I'm still not fully prepared for today. I mean, I'm sorry for not putting the time in to the game that I ought to, but it can't really be helped given my irl situation. :/

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Right now my town pool consits of Shadow, Deirfire, nn30, and maaayyybbeee Prisum. I'll see about expanding on this later tonight.

I'm looking more at, and for, town reads because I currently feel more confidant about my town reads then my scum reads.

[Grendel]

@Zoronos Is going the entire D1 without putting a vote on anybody normal play for you?

[Grendel]

These are town

Shadow: He is town to me because he as scum wouldn’t benefit from a 1 for 1 trade off would be bad for scum. I figure it is more likely that there would be two aesthetics’ then shadow being scum. I think i said this before though.

Deirfire: I had read some of his prevous games before this one started, and this game largely reflects Town!Deir. I read two Scum!Deir games: DankMeme, and Symphonic metal mafia. Both of which Deir was lurking scum, having and keeping a low profile. The town games i read were two newbie’s he SE/IC’d for, and a mini normal that i don’t think had a name(numerical). In those Deirfire, while not being a especially prolific poster did keep on top of things and left dense posts when he could throughout the games. This game has been very reflective of Town!Deir, especially once nearing EoD yesterday.

NN30: His effort D1 and approach to the game resonates town to me. His case, and interest in boring is good and i think he has some valid points on her. I think that his suspicion on Shadow is justifiable as town, and more importantly not a something he’d push as scum yesterday. If nn30 were scum he most likely stick to eager, because imo Eager was an easy lynch to bite onto. Through the day he has been showing a consistent effort to figure things out and solve the game. I don’t know his experience outside of this site, but it would be very hard for an unseasoned scum to be so ontop of things that have been happening. He as scum would have had many opportunities to back off the game and let town fight each other, but he didn’t do that. Believe it or not I also thought times he has referred to himself as Ob!town were rather town like. I guess this a bit of a gut read. Its just that effort he is putting into the game smells like town.

Prism: His desire to get attention yesterday when he felt like nobody was listening to him looked like very anti-mafia behavior, most scum would be happy being sidelined. Therefore i think it is more likely Prism is town -just for that-. I also think he may be onto something with Implosion. It also appears that he was the originator of the Implosion saying thoughtful, but empty things from the sidelines while also targeting easy marks opinion. At the very least I don’t see his push on Implosion being scum motivated.

I'll try and sort some more people tomorrow evening.

[Grendel]

Pre-edit: I am? How so?
I think it could be anybody who isn't a town read currently. If I was pressed this second I'd start with LUV just because there is less research needed then Implosion, or boring. But that would be the easy route, and the esay route in't always the right one. Also, Implosion and boring aren't a likely scum team, and I'd like to figure which of the two are scum first before I mess with that.

So other than Eager, Maria and implosion, who believed there could be 2 town ascetics?

LUV

Thank you, that leads into my plan for today. I think the scum team spread out amongst the three wagons/opinions. And I still feel implosion is town, so I'm going to
VOTE: LUV

I was open to the possibility of their being two aesthetics. I wussed out at the end, but eager was the correct lynch in that situation.

So why do you town read Implosion again?

[Grendel]

A lot of things about boring that i thought were scummy seem kind of petty now looking back. I really didn’t like when boring said that MariaR asking if scum have day chat was MariaR shooting for a derp clear (682). I also didn’t like (636) initially because i thought it was a big jump from mild bemusement, to snarky disgust in regards to Eager’s fear vote. I was also really conflicted feeling when she started acting all paranois about me too. I struggled to see the legitimacy behind those comments.

I think the worse thing boring did was that swiftness to vote Eager. Having Eager as second town read then droping him the moment the cc happened. As others have said that was questionable. What more is that boring’s logic of snake being the uncountered Eager being town read was fualty. By which i mean post 1037, if she has a gut scum lean then she wouldn’t be inclined to town read him for his cliam in the first place. Like Eagar would have been a null for my reads if I shared boring feelings not town.

One thing i thought of is that her quickness to move her vote to Eagar after the cc is really hasty for scum. It been a while since i read “Artic mafia”, but i seem to recall scum!boring being more cautious, actively avoiding stances that would burn her. This near sightedness dosen’t looks to scum to me in retrospect.

Or i could just be really bad at reading boring. Anycase I’m not up to lynching her. Null, to put it into words.

[Grendel]

I think gamma is scum because he was believing any vague stupid theories and voting people for shallow reasons without even thinking about it.

Gamma does this as town. I can't rule out the possibility that he plays the same as town and as scum. All I have to go on is his town game, and this looks just like his town game.

My first newbie game had mostly experienced players by Day 2, and one thing they effectively drilled into my head is that actions are NAI. Motives are all that matters. That's probably why the more experienced players seem to ignore the traditional "tell" lists and VCA.

There's no scum motivation for Gamma to hop around, apply moon logic, weave between his own path and arguments he likes in thread. Especially not with scum daytalk. Either he'd have been instructed to knock it off, or his buddies would be gearing up to bus him for town cred.

It isn't an indicator that Gamma is town. It is an indicator that Gamma is... well Gamma.

He is like this as both alignments imo

[Grendel]

Luv looks worse in retrospect then I first thought.

I kind of want to vote Implosion too though.

[Grendel]

I think if I were to put my dissatisfaction with Implosion into words it'd be that so far today he has more energy into shaming shadow, and treating Eagar, and MariaR like martyrs then progressing the game state. Treating Snake like he was Ob!town when he wasn't. Frustration could be real, but the townness behind it isn't there.

Also, late into yesterday he also fixated lots of energy on "Eager and Shadow are town!", the only moves outside of that was his boring case work, and interacting with players reflexively, ei they made the first move. Lots of busy work to make himself real shiny is what I saw.

Pre edit: Speak of the devil.
Wish you were on earlier then this. I actually have to get off in a sec.

[Grendel]

Looking at Maria's ISO, either one of them is really scum, more likely boring than Dierfire in my opinion, or MariaR is 5/5 in her townreads in #751. I'm inclined to believe the latter regardless of if the former is true. Cry WIFOM but you want but you only WIFOM if you think you're more likely to win because of it. This kill doesn't make sense if other, more town players are on the right track. nn30, Shadow, and PP line up nicely with my reads, Eager is flipped, and Grendel isn't a stretch. It seems unlikely for any of them to kill her if they're scum. I think they're all town, Grendel being the one I'm least sure on.

I wasn't gonna say it so early, but my pet theory currently is that scum killed off the Eager wagon to prevent their buddies on that wagon from being PoE later. This of course means that I'm thinking that scum will keep killing off that wagon to make narrowing things down harder. Also I the most scum kills tend to have their own pattern to them dependent to the team. Unfortunately its hard to divine it until later into the game. This theory would mean that I'm expecting two scum on the Eager wagon, with the third scum being off. Also, I predict that the scum off the wagon is the one setting themselves up to go deep.

There is also the possibility that scum thought MariaR was PR laying low or some such.

@Grendel, what are your thoughts on PP and LUV?

Pengiun has been flying I mean swimming under the radar so far. His, "lets just lynch him already", mentality could have scum intent. My original feelings for hard scum reading him have become pretty stale since it seems more then a few people feel his reactions to me were more likely to come from town back on D1. I definitely dislike his play, and I do think he is a viable scum. Not sure how I feel about Zoronos leading the wagon though. Zoronos has been an active voice, but many of his stances that he doesn't back up with a vote, or an aggressive push come off to me as middling, and I just don't trust him. ei I don't want to support a wagon founded by a null-scum slot.

Luv is all over the place and I'm having trouble pacing him. I definitely didn't like his hammer, or the unnatural transitions in his reads. I can't help feeling like it is all to easy though.

I could vote either if it meant pushing a lynch through EoD. I think I need to think a little more before putting a vote on either.

I might try to look into Gamma first. There is something he has not been doing that I have been expecting him to do for a while now. And that is bothering me.

[Grendel]

Wait, Zornos never even revoted Penguin...

VOTE: Penguin

For now.

[Grendel]

Gamma Emerald, How are you reading boring currently?

Okay that's making me uncomfortable. Not "I'll totally claim intent", "I have no problem hammering".
So you seem to not want to push my wagon. Sure, I can totally buy that as town play.
VOTE: PenguinPower

uh, I thought you had decided Penguin was town just yesterday?

[Grendel]

I'd rather vote for Gamma Emerald than for PenguinPower or Lil Uzi Vert.
I'm still assessing whether I'd prefer to vote for Gamma Emerald than for boring.

I guess that for the purpose of clarity I'll put my vote on Gamma Emerald for now.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I'd like to know more about why boring is 2nd scum for you when you found most the other players cases on her uncompelling.

Is the crux of your case that she finds LUV scummier then Implosion, when through PoE she should be on Implosion?

How do you feel about Implosion?

[Grendel]

@Gamma

Gamma Emerald, How are you reading boring currently?

Well?

[Grendel]

Okay Gamma.

How about Zoronos?

Do you still tr me too?

[Grendel]

I'm just interested. Because their is something Town!Gamma would have brought up.

So you are saying you don't actually have any case on me? Just a lack of reasons to town read me?

Pre-edit

Hmm... that wasn't what I expected you to talk about. Especially since you'd know better then anybody else here what my living conditions are like.

[Grendel]

I'm thinking I know what Grendel is talking about, and I don't have anything to say about that right now. So you may as well say it because I don't think you'll get anything out of me by being vague.

If you know what I'm talking about then why do you need me to spell it out for you?

If I have to go to that extent then I'm voting you. So give me a guess.

[Grendel]

Nope.

VOTE: Gamma

I guess I'll explain tomorrow when I put a case up. I have to get off soon.

In the meantime you can explain why you were so quick to sheep your tertiary scum read.

[Grendel]

VOTE: PenguinPower
k then.

I should clarify that my stance on Penguin is that he is a lazy player whose play style I dislike, but the scum read on him is light enough that I ordinarily wouldn't have voted him in this situation.

I mainly wanted to obligate Zoronos into making a real vote. So mission accomplished.

Though I guess Penguin did a decent job of that himself.

[Grendel]

VOTE: PenguinPower
k then.

I should clarify that my stance on Penguin is that he is a lazy player whose play style I dislike, but the scum read on him is light enough that I ordinarily wouldn't have voted him in this situation.

I mainly wanted to obligate Zoronos into making a real vote. So mission accomplished.

Though I guess Penguin did a decent job of that himself.

Ummmm... what?
I am not really sure how you thought you were obligating me to do things, mind explaining your thought process there?

easy, i started a wagon on your scum read to remove any reservations you might have been having about voting it. The act itself wasn't an attempt on you alignment, more so a book mark so i know when/where you had suspicions. Like reading your suspensions D1 is time consuming because your hesitating to vote made who you thought to be top scum lordz really vague.

Unless, of course you suddenly started bucking the prospect of voting Pengu. That would have been pretty questionable.

[Grendel]

Hey, I'm having my dinner. I will post some stuff about an hour from now.

[Grendel]

Spoiler:

Grendel - Primarily he was afk but his posting before he left was largely off topic. He kept promising to look into Boring but that never materialized. So we'll see what he does with that today. I'm giving him a bit of a break since I assume he's not lying about IRL obligations in order to dodge mafia / excuse lurking.

Grendel, I feel like you're just retreading well-covered ground.
I am uninterested in your town cases - show me scum cases.

These two posts from Zoronos should've raised questions for Gamma about me. Primarily because in my scum game with him I was only showing up to post busy work, and lurked most the first day. Mostly near EoD too.

The second one would paint me as not producing original content. Gamma views me staying within popular opinion, or trying to work hard while not actually doing anything original as a huge scum tell. (I'd say its more a tell of my lack of motivation/confidence for a game then scum specifically) ((But I am more likely to suffer motivational lapses as scum b/c I dislike the alignment))

Looking back at boring, she seems to have done a lot of mudslinging early Day 1(before Shadow's claim).
As for Grendel and Zoronos, those are others I need to reconsider. I've actually been fostering a Grendel scumread because of the fact I can't find anything to townread him on that's non-meta. I'm hoping things will be easier to sort with a flip.

lol, yeah "meta". I don't honestly believe you were ever looking into my meta today at this point.

Okay nonononono this will not do. A lot of Grendel's posts in the later art of Day 1 seem to be stalling. This feels like someone being coached in day chat. I understand he has school stuff going on but it's so widespread I can't handwave it.

This attempt is too late. Gamma has seen me be a lurking scumbag before, but the fact he took so long to come to this "conclusion" feels like he wouldn't have thought to mention it if I hadn't prompted him. Which means, he was never thinking about it in the first place. The whole The first comment tells me that in response to my question he thinks that he is supposed to be suspicious of me for something, but isn’t sure what, and to compensate he makes a vague one-liner about his suspicions, which is easy to fake. The second post is like Gamma stretching to find a reason to scum read me, that could maybe tie into a meta argument. This vague scum read that he pulled out of the air while sheeping my vote screams that he is he is taking me as town at face value because he is in an informed position. It tells me the extent that he cares about looking town vs solving the game. If town Gamma hadn’t already caught on he would have just said he missed it. Town Gamma has no motivation to lie here.

Spoiler:

I'm thinking I know what Grendel is talking about, and I don't have anything to say about that right now. So you may as well say it because I don't think you'll get anything out of me by being vague.

If you know what I'm talking about then why do you need me to spell it out for you?

If I have to go to that extent then I'm voting you. So give me a guess.

Something about the game we were in that just ended. I don't know what you could have to say about that right now, and I personally feel there's not much that could matter.

Attempting to turn the question around on me because he doesn’t know the answer, but he doesn’t want to let on that he doesn’t know what I am talking about. Then once i threaten to vote him he gives me the kind of answer that you give somebody that is interpreted as understanding, but without actually confirming he understands.

Gamma has been building facades, and not showing physical effort to sort anybody. Me in particular. Last game together he went out of his way to try and meta me on several occasions. This game i think he did it a few times, but it was just a passing reference to a game that imo barely even applied to my play this game. And then when asked for elaboration he just insisted that I’m playing like town!grendel, and left it at that. Hold on.

Spoiler:

He's probably town based on his current actions, but I want to see more.

Are you scum reading Zoronos? Because you voted one of my biggest critics for being critical of me, which would imply you had a town read on me at least since then. For you to suddenly say that you weren't town reading me doesn't add up to how I recalled your actions. What specificly about my play is townie?

Also, Why is the crux of your vote for Penguin "what Grendel said"?

That puts you in a position were you could blame me if Penguin flips town. And as a whole is not informative, rather is lazy.

@Gamma Outside of how I opened my game why are you town reading me?

I would also like an explanation as why Implosion went from scum to town, and why Shadow step went from town to what ever "need to contribute" means.

Lastly What do you think of Penguin?

Pre-edit

@Grendel

I prefaced my post with a town read on you so that you know I'm not coming at you from an antagonistic point of view.

Hmm, okay. I thought you might be worried I'd brush you off or something.

Which I wouldn't have btw.

I never stated I townread you, but this is your normal townplay, so yeah I townread you because your play is towny.
Implosion became town because he a) actually read LUV's post and b) still scumread me after like half the players stated a townread on me. Shadow needs to contribute because he hasn't seemed to have done much beyond voting LUV and PP.
PP seems like scum. His push against you has been very bad looking.

I was being critical because it was typical town play for you. I believe I stated I needed to see more to sort you out once or twice. Zoronos is still a bit of a scumread. Actually, my reads are starting to get mixed up. I may have to actually sort them out with a list.
PEdit: I am starting to scumread S_s though.

As for why I townread Grendel, I guess it's just that this feels a lot like NPBR again.

(NPBR was a large offsite favor game we both played in)

What I think I found funniest is how fake his read on me is. Like he knows I’m town, but is pretending he isn’t quite sure so he can appear to “sort” me. I especially love the transition from” Grendel is town to”, “What I wasn’t town reading you?” while he was sheeping me, and earlier chainsaw voting on Zoronos for being critical of my methods. If I didn’t know better I’d think he was trying to link himself to me. This also makes two times where Gamma sheeped me while claiming that I was suspicious, and even on the same slot too (Penguin power). I may need to look back more, but I seem to recall other instances where Gamma's opinion's on the game state, and mine over lap quite a bit. Which is weird since he feels that nothing has been pointing towards Town!Grendel this game except for meta reasons that I basically forced out of him.

[Grendel]

I don't think I'll be on at all tomorrow.

Tomorrow looks stressful, so I probably won't be in the mind set for mafia.

Dude, just because I have agreed with you doesn't mean I townread you. And as I said, me pre-defending myself on ties to Eager clears me.
Also, I didn't think you were a lurksack last time. What is strange is the fact you expect me to use your past behavior as scum as an indicator when you have told me before you don't have a unifying style as scum.
And I was NOT chainsawing Zoronos.

I said I didn't because I didn't want you falling back on that as an excuse to town read me in Eggman's game. I do in fact have separate tendencies as both alignments.

Not that it matters because you basically replaced, "this is town!grednel" last game with "This is how Grendel plays as town" this game, which is the same thing minus the commitment.

[Grendel]

@Grendel, that was actually worth waiting for. I doubt we have to wait long for Gamma's response.

@Penguin, you made me LOL.

p-edit - LOL

One of my favorite things about Gamma as a player is that he is v prompt with his replies. He has never kept me waiting for long.

I think Grendel is being a bit unfair as the only way I caught him last time was by copping him. I never even though he was a lurker that game, because he kept posting steadily.

I'm speaking in retrospect, You have an idea what my scum game looks like, yet things I were expecting to ping you didn't, which made me think, "Why was Gamma claiming to meta me when things like x, and y didn't phase him."

Also I question why you bothered metaing me at all if I left you with the inclination that I was that unreadable in Eggernuats game.

Maybe because meta is an easy way to try and sort somebody as scum because you don't necessarily have to do anything. Right?

[Grendel]

Dude, just because I have agreed with you doesn't mean I townread you.

So if I was not ever town to you why did you sheep me... twice.

[Grendel]

And as I said, me pre-defending myself on ties to Eager clears me.

Please stop. Anyone can "pre-defend" or otherwise attempt to derp clear themselves when they know who's what. The only thing you're doing by claiming to be cleared is throwing (me at least) through a too-scummy-to-be-scum loop.

Do you think Grendel has any point at all? Is anything he said true to you?

p-edit: the fact that I predicted you'd be around soon to respond and you ninja'd my prediction.

So what about you though. Do you see the validity of what I'm saying?

Ah so the main thing is the meta. As I said, I didn't really make any connections with your scum play as you told me you didn't have a reliable scum meta.
I said I "sheeped" you because your case was close to mine.

I don't understand why you brought it up if you didn't think you could reliably meta me in the first place.

Okay, you did provide a case the second time. I'll let the second one slide for now. How about the first time where you listed my exact reasoning as to why I thought Penguin was scum right after I said it?

[Grendel]

Okay I had a townread on Grendel. I can't remember every damn read I post okay?
And thanks for quoting that because now I don't have to do so to say this: the only meta I used was NPBR because, of course, Grendel claims to not have a unifying scum strategy.

Oh, so you were looking solo for town meta?

Why didn't you wait so long to specify this fact?

[Grendel]

*did

[Grendel]

I'll be back in a few hours to most something else I've mean meaning to do since this day started.

I don't like that Lil Uzi Vert hasn't cast a vote yet today. My next task is reading Lil Uzi Vert; this will happen within roughly 24 hours.

Why don't you like that I haven't? Who do you think I should be voting for?

Because you're afraid of having to be held accountable for you actions lol

How about voting Gamma? He is clearly among your top suspects yea?

Grendel, you probably want to stop relying on trivial 'x clears me' . It convinces nobody and replaces useful content. And is annoying.
Helpful hint.

???

[Grendel]

Oh, never mind Zoronos.

[Grendel]

You say "On the other hand, he might not be scum" which is kinda true for every player in this game. Which side do you think is more likely? My apologies, but having an on-the-other-hand makes this read seem a bit wishy-washy.

That's because it is wishy-washy. I'm afraid to risk another TvT day when there are 2-3 other scum running around. His posts feel scummy. His big-picture is scummy. When it comes to inferring motivation, I'm falling a little short. He could be trying to stir up trouble and get some easy mislynches. I'm pretty low-hanging fruit right now, and everyone knows it. But, I have to ask myself whether I'd still see him in a scummy light if he was tunneling someone else instead of me? Am I having a knee-jerk reaction?

Well... do you think you're having a knee-jerk reaction?

I'm okay with LUV getting lynched, but my top priority right now is Gamma.

[Grendel]

Green are conf town, blue are people I will not consider lynching.

Official Vote Count 1.36

Lynching

FINAL

eagerSnake (7): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Dierfire, Prism, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert
boring (4): MariaR, implosion, nn30, eagerSnake

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Grendel

V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)

I'm going to organize some hypothetical scum teams based off my thought process out lined here:

I wasn't gonna say it so early, but my pet theory currently is that scum killed off the Eager wagon to prevent their buddies on that wagon from being PoE later. This of course means that I'm thinking that scum will keep killing off that wagon to make narrowing things down harder. Also I the most scum kills tend to have their own pattern to them dependent to the team. Unfortunately its hard to divine it until later into the game. This theory would mean that I'm expecting two scum on the Eager wagon, with the third scum being off. Also, I predict that the scum off the wagon is the one setting themselves up to go deep.

These are scum teams that I think make a some sense going off the final vote count listed from most to less likely:

Zoronos x LUV x Gamma
Implosion x LUV x Gamma
Zoronos x Gamma x boring
Implosion x Penguin Power x LUV
Implosion x Zoronos x Gamma

Some notes

Spoiler:

-Zoronos, and or Implosion would be the ones setting themselves up to go deep.

-Gamma is present in most of them, and as such I want to start lynching there.

-boring makes sense with Gamma because her reasons for town reading him initially are easy scum method for town reading somebody.

-Gamma Makes sense with Zoronos because his reasons for town reading Zoronos are contrived, and up until then he kept him as null -the best hiding spot for scum-. I recall Zoronos having markedly little to sat about Gamma aside from "mad" voting him, then after unvoting throwing a light scum read Gamma's way. I don't really feel like going back to check his iso to confirm this though that's just how I remember it. Lastly, If Zoronos felt my case was cognizant then why was he not more interested in the prospect of scum Gamma? He was entertaining it earlier after all.

- I'm not opening to considering any scum teams featuring Penguin and Zoronos together, the same for ImplosionXboring, GammaxPenguin, and boringxLUV. From my perspective they have had little scum team chemistry so far this game.

-Though the vote count is going against it I do think that ImplosionxZoronos have some real chemistry together. Their mutual, "I don't trust you", while never really expressing interest in lynching on another past the silly RVS shenanigans looks like keeping each other as back pocket reads. Their interactions looks less like sorting, and more like distancing imo.

-Recently Gamma's "OPPERTUNISTIC VOTE" on LUV looks like some heavy scum distancing to me. I haven't really checked their history in a while, but Gamma is in a position where he wants to distances as hard and as fast as he can from his buddies due to his impending lynch.

-The way the Penguin Power handles LUV feels off to me. I may need to look into this more in future.

- I had something to say about LUV and Implosion but I can't find the evidence now.

-I may need to rethink some of my town reads as well. Boring completes a very reasonable scum team featuring both Gamma, and Zoronos, but i currently believe I have a reason to town read her. I think I elaborate later tonight.

[Grendel]

NO hammers guys! I have more to say when I get back from dinner!

[Grendel]

Also, Grendel, your notes need some work or you actually need to read my posts since:
a) I have been pretty clear I think Implosion is likely-scum. I just can't seem to get anyone else to agree with that point, or if they do they hand wring about it.
b) I said back on D1 that I thought Gamma was lean town. Also, the word is 'cogent' not 'cognizant'.
You probably want to read closer if you think I have had remarkably little to say about Gamma.
c) Why the heck do you think Boring is town?

C.
Something i was thinking about earlier was, “why would boring night kill Maria in the first place?” It looks like one of the worst possible kills for boring!scum. Doing so would box her in and defeat her, “scum on my wagon” theory. She had herself set up today to scum hunt off the wagon that formed on her yesterday. By killing off that wagon she reduces her mislynch options, and she is forced to back track at the start of the day. I don’t see why boring would intentionally botch her plans for day play, and create more work for herself. AS scum she’d want as few contradictions in her play as she could get, the kill last night would not help this. It doesn’t get me as much as the previous point, but were i come from many scum are scared to strike down one of their most vocal attackers N1. Not saying that scum don’t here, but it still takes a ballzy scum player to pull a kill like that because it _will_ draw attention to them.

If she were scum last night’s kill must have been with another players benefit in mind. What I’m thinking is that if boring were scum she isn’t getting set up to go deep, which means at least one of these three things. 1) That she isn’t a scum PR 2) She is the least town read member of her team 3) She is not the leader of the scum lords. (2) has scary implications i don’t feel like considering right now. (3) points to Zoronos as scum since Implosion makes no sense with Boring.

A.
You lack of a vote or memorable aggression on Implosion's slot makes the back and forth between your interactions look like two dudes just having a regular debate that isn't furthering a read for you. The only reason that comes to my mind as to why this could be so it that it is meant to be conflict taken at face value. That the two of you are just distancing. Also, if an Implosion wagon comes up in future and you aren't on it you'd better believe I'm going to make this an issue.

B.
If you had Gamma as a town lean D1, why would you ever vote him?
When you talked about how scum are hiding behind bad play, were you not referring to Gamma?

[Grendel]

Literally nobody likes my case on Penguin? He has done absolutely fucking nothing all day D2, and basically did nothing D1, but "Nah, that's cool, let's just ignore him"?

You people.

I'd vote him again if the wagon had one more person. He's a stronger scumread than LUV but I'm doing what I can to avoid being forced to claim under an intent statement.

And that fills me with fucking confidence.
</sarc>

-Look at the genuine frustration that hasn't been done to death for town cred this game-

/sarcasm

So why are you town reading Gamma anyways?

Yo Grendel: formatting requires BBCode here.

*Thank you*

_I had totally forgotten_

[Grendel]

@My town pool.

If some of you could spare the time I'd like some secondary opinions on my post at 1847. I want to know if you all see what I see.

[Grendel]

But I've done it multiple times. Do you think I would be so bad as scum to screw up so much? Do you think I wouldn't have been told in daychat what to say?

Most day chats I have read had little, "No no, don't do that, do this instead", probably because post coached play can be pretty OB.

I am not a fan of all the vocal undermining of you capabilities. You are much smarter then you are making yourself out to be these last few pages.

Is Desperation Day your only completed scum game on this site?

[Grendel]

Spoiler: stuff

Also, Grendel, your notes need some work or you actually need to read my posts since:
a) I have been pretty clear I think Implosion is likely-scum. I just can't seem to get anyone else to agree with that point, or if they do they hand wring about it.
b) I said back on D1 that I thought Gamma was lean town. Also, the word is 'cogent' not 'cognizant'.
You probably want to read closer if you think I have had remarkably little to say about Gamma.
c) Why the heck do you think Boring is town?

C.
Something i was thinking about earlier was, “why would boring night kill Maria in the first place?” It looks like one of the worst possible kills for boring!scum. Doing so would box her in and defeat her, “scum on my wagon” theory. She had herself set up today to scum hunt off the wagon that formed on her yesterday. By killing off that wagon she reduces her mislynch options, and she is forced to back track at the start of the day. I don’t see why boring would intentionally botch her plans for day play, and create more work for herself. AS scum she’d want as few contradictions in her play as she could get, the kill last night would not help this. It doesn’t get me as much as the previous point, but were i come from many scum are scared to strike down one of their most vocal attackers N1. Not saying that scum don’t here, but it still takes a ballzy scum player to pull a kill like that because it _will_ draw attention to them.

If she were scum last night’s kill must have been with another players benefit in mind. What I’m thinking is that if boring were scum she isn’t getting set up to go deep, which means at least one of these three things. 1) That she isn’t a scum PR 2) She is the least town read member of her team 3) She is not the leader of the scum lords. (2) has scary implications i don’t feel like considering right now. (3) points to Zoronos as scum since Implosion makes no sense with Boring.

A.
You lack of a vote or memorable aggression on Implosion's slot makes the back and forth between your interactions look like two dudes just having a regular debate that isn't furthering a read for you. The only reason that comes to my mind as to why this could be so it that it is meant to be conflict taken at face value. That the two of you are just distancing. Also, if an Implosion wagon comes up in future and you aren't on it you'd better believe I'm going to make this an issue.

B.
If you had Gamma as a town lean D1, why would you ever vote him?
When you talked about how scum are hiding behind bad play, were you not referring to Gamma?

c) NK spec is awful play. Do you have a non NK-speculation based reason? Because I haven't seen Boring doing much of any scum hunting today. So, maybe that's exactly what happened. She left herself no where to scum hunt, so she just hasn't and we're all kinda excusing that.
But I'll indulge you for just a monent - because it's one less person voting Boring. That's pro-scum if Boring is scum. Town has an amazing capacity to WIFOM themselves out of obvious explanations.
NK's are a place where town fundamentally don't have enough information to figure out the answer, so it's best, imo, ignored. It's playing a card game without knowing which cards are in the deck.

a) Seriously? Stop being dumb. How many times do you want me to repeat that I think he's scum. If I thought I could get a train, I'd move my vote right this moment. Penguin is a stronger read but I can't get a train going on him either because you guys are busy voting my town reads but oh well.

b) Yup - But I was also referring to you, LUV, Implosion, and Penguin. (Obviously that list is massively too large to be scum). We have a lot of folks playing badly or lurky, and generically non-contributory.

I'm not gonna sit here an argue about theory any more then I have too. But I do believe that NK analysis has some uses, and it has short comings, I feel it is more useful then it is useless. So I do partake.

Why is Gamma Town?

Why am I being dismissed as bad town here? Is it just because I like using meta as a scum hunting tool?

[Grendel]

I've said that i like your argument on PP. I like Grendel's argument on Gamma. But unless the scum team is LUV+Gamma+PP, the situation bears some further scrutiny. (if the scum team is them, and we lose, we should all permaban ourselves in shame).

I don't think I believe there can be a Gamma+PP scum team. Based on their D1 arguments I just can't bring myself to countenance that being the case.

re: Grendel's arguemt: I think Grendel's conclusions follow from his premise, and he presented it quite well. However, it's fundamentally a meta argument, and I give no shits about meta. So it tells me that Grendel is probably town because it looks like genuine scum hunting. But in terms of "Meta says X!" I just kinda shrug and move on.

I don't think it can be GammaXPengiun. Gamma seemed perfectly happy to see Penguin strung up when he sheeped me.

[Grendel]

I layed out my reasons for Gamma being town back on D1, if you are too lazy to find them in ISO, the basics was that he was playing actively anti-charistmatically, but wasn't using those objections to drive a scum case. Basically, he was playing in a fashion that made himself easier to lynch and that was likely to induce prejudice, which is against the scum win-con.
For the D2 case, he's basically just playing like an idiot - His play right now is in no way contributing to a scum win con. He's not playing to survive, at least not constructively. He's under pressure and is flailing, but is making absolutely no effort to conceal that flail. If he were scum and my train were the mislynch (or boring's), he'd have been massively incentivized to vote park and then not participate further. Instead, he painted a massive target on his back by acting loud and crazy.

If he's scum, then his scum game plan is awful and makes no sense. It looks the same to me as the behavior of Eager at the end of D1.
So yeah, I don't really want to lynch him.

Okay, so if you reasoning for Gamma!town today is that his play style isn't helping move a scum win-con. How is Penguin's laziness going to help his win-con as scum?

Low content posting will most likely result in Penguin's lynch if he keeps it up over time.

The trouble with your D1 Gamma case is that Gamma always plays in that manner. You're town reading him for reasons I find non-AI as far as Gamma goes.

[Grendel]

Gamma. You're defending yourself very, very poorly. Your defences are nonsensical.

@Grendel - has he ever done this as town that you know of? He didn't try these stunts when he was town with me.

He has flailed as town before.

I haven't seen him react under heavy pressure as scum yet. The game I had witnessed real time with Scum!Gamma he was day vigged before he really started defending himself.

And I don't see Gamma really getting put under lots of pressure in Desperation mafia. Unless I missed something, but he was never high on any Vote counts.

[Grendel]

@Prism what are your current reads?

You're still happy with where your vote is right?

[Grendel]

Things that make me think Gamma is town:

-The insistence that he is pseudo-confirmed town. Now, I suspect I'm going to get a lot of disagreement here. But there are two reasons I think this is a pretty significant towntell. One, I don't see the scum motivation for continuing to state it and re-state it. If he's scum, he sure as hell knows it's a bullshit argument and that it's going to be debunked; it's not the kind of thing that people are going to likely fall for, and so it's not the kind of thing that scum are likely to go for as a direct ploy to try to trick people into thinking that it's true. If anything, continuing to repeat that he should be confirmed town at this point and that the only way he could possibly be scum is if he's a traitor is suicidal as scum after it clearly isn't going to work. Two, and this is somewhat in contrast to point one... I am somewhat inclined to straightforwardly believe him. But this is less significant than point one.

-The read forgetting. I know I called this scummy earlier but it's extremely context-dependent... and it's a little worrying that people are pushing him so much for this when I feel like I just repeated it over and over again earlier (at least I think this is the point I was repeating earlier a bunch and was being ignored). In this context it's not as bad I think (although I haven't looked over it that closely. Frankly, things like 1833 are not reminiscent of scum trying to defend themselves from obviously very scummy things they've done.

-This goes hand in hand with both of those points but he's displaying a certain irreverence with regards to his own life. That also just doesn't read as concerned scum. He's not really flailing or struggling to get pressure off him. He's just going with things and continuing to play.

Note that all of this is from my memory of the game (i didn't actually re-read over much so details of my memory may be fuzzy esp. since i'm typing this at 2 am or so).

Okay, so how do you feel about the, "if I were scum I'd do "x", not "y"" defenses that Gamma has put up?

I personally say that kind of think a lot as scum. So when I see a player doing it a lot it sends up a read flag for me.

[Grendel]

The trouble with your D1 Gamma case is that Gamma always plays in that manner. You're town reading him for reasons I find non-AI as far as Gamma goes.

I do, begrudgingly, have to support this. He was almost mislynched in a newbie game I was obvscum in because he just wears it on his sleeve.

You were voting Gamma quite recently, and never really posted much to say your read had flipped, so why is this a begrudging agreement?
Also, this is a really odd phrasing if he was town at the time, since Grendel is arguing it makes him scum now.

Actually I'm arguing that Gamma's play style is a null read. He doesn't play like a survivor as either town or mafia. So I think that town reading him for how he charges through the game unbothered is folly.

[Grendel]

The reason I'm scum reading him is for his poor interactions with me.

His lack of effort and or interest in sorting people he has played with before (Me in particular).

For trying to put up a pretense of knowledge where he had none. As I said before Town!Gamma has no reason to lie.

And lastly that he kept me as a null-scum lean while immediately sheeping me onto Penguin twice. During D1, and after proposing a bare bones argument D2.

It was not just meta Zoronos

[Grendel]

hmm... okay.

UNVOTE:

I think I'd like to hear what shadow has to say about this.

[Grendel]

His lack of effort and or interest in sorting people he has played with before (Me in particular).

Well him being a cop would explain this.

I'm mainly concerned since I had somebody else down as our investigative PR. So this popping up leaves me to wonder if I need a general over haul of my reads since most my scum teams involve Gamma.

I wonder what the likihood is that Gamma would fake claim in this situation?

There wasn't much pressure on him in hopes of doing it for survival purposes. A scum's fake claim probably would have some closer to deadline. I don't really think Gamma would be the fake claiming type either.

[Grendel]

It's giving me a lot of pause on accepting an LUV lynch because I'm really not sure I trust Boring's motivations for pushing that, even if I can see some of the points being made. Which makes me dig in my heels more on my PP train.

Funnily enough I would like to see Penguin lynched now that Gamma is highly likely town. But I don't trust you at all. I mean I'd be just as content with yours as Penguin's lynch right now.

You also aren't going that far out of your comfort zone to get Penguin lynched. After proving a case, you basically sat back and complained that nobody was sheeping you.

Yes, play style has an effect here (e.i. passive/time restricted players), but I don't think your either of these. You've been somebody who is an active poster (Not time restricted), and had a strong voice (Not Passive), yet you haven't done much campaigning one-on-one to get Penguin lynched. Speaking today, the closest that come to this was when you were explaining your Penguin scum read to Implosion, and boring. I think you talked about Penguin yester some to, but never voted, or anything. So that is a shrug.

The same thing with your town reads too. You didn't struggle to derail the Eager wagon yesterday, or Gamma wagon today. You sort of just pointed out that you thought they were town, and left it at that. IF you were so sure they would flip town why did you not talk people off their wagons?

I guess you could say I'm expecting too much of you. But you're clearly demonstrated your experience this game spans beyond a lot of this roster, and you've been more then a little opinionated on matters of play style. Why town!you is this complacent about pushing your reads is beyond me.

Pre-edit: sup dudes

[Grendel]

I mean, that doesn't seem off-putting to anyone?

Duh.

One in another reason why he hasn't touched my town reads at all this game.

You make very easy posts Penguin.

[Grendel]

That's great. Why hasn't he touched your votes?

Because I trust you as much as I trust him.

Funnily enough I would like to see Penguin lynched now that Gamma is highly likely town. But I don't trust you at all. I mean I'd be just as content with yours as Penguin's lynch right now.

[Grendel]

Funnily enough I would like to see Penguin lynched now that Gamma is highly likely town. But I don't trust you at all. I mean I'd be just as content with yours as Penguin's lynch right now.

You also aren't going that far out of your comfort zone to get Penguin lynched. After proving a case, you basically sat back and complained that nobody was sheeping you.

Yes, play style has an effect here (e.i. passive/time restricted players), but I don't think your either of these. You've been somebody who is an active poster (Not time restricted), and had a strong voice (Not Passive), yet you haven't done much campaigning one-on-one to get Penguin lynched. Speaking today, the closest that come to this was when you were explaining your Penguin scum read to Implosion, and boring. I think you talked about Penguin yester some to, but never voted, or anything. So that is a shrug.

The same thing with your town reads too. You didn't struggle to derail the Eager wagon yesterday, or Gamma wagon today. You sort of just pointed out that you thought they were town, and left it at that. IF you were so sure they would flip town why did you not talk people off their wagons?

I guess you could say I'm expecting too much of you. But you're clearly demonstrated your experience this game spans beyond a lot of this roster, and you've been more then a little opinionated on matters of play style. Why town!you is this complacent about pushing your reads is beyond me.

Pre-edit: sup dudes

You think I've 'sat back' since putting my case on Penguin? Seriously? I've been demanding people explain why they think he's town over and over. And everyone but Gamma has fucking ignored me. I tried to sell his case repeatedly today and reiterated my reasons for it.

Also, bullshit I didn't struggle to derail the Eager wagon. I explained over and over that his play made no sense as a scum line, and that the ascetic counterclaim held no water.
Furthermore, I told you today that your meta read on Gamma was not good and that I thought he was town. I explained why I thought he was town, and you ignored me in favor of your meta read. I absolutely tried to tell you were that you were wrong, so don't give me that crap. If I didn't care about a gamma mislynch, I would have shut the hell up about why you were wrong and just let you carry on your merry way. I got in your way instead and said that meta reading Gamma was a bad plan. You just ignored me.

Of all the things that you could say I've been, complacent about pushing my reads when I think people are wrong isn't fucking one of them.

Shouting into the void=/=proactively trying to convince people that Penguin is best wagon.

Telling Eager that he needs to act more town+ once again shouting into the void=/= trying to reason directly with the people on Eager's wagon.

How many time did you directly talk to anybody by name when doing your convincing?

[Grendel]

@Grendel: Answers D2. Not D1.

Yesterday? He was bouncing around null-scum.

I don't recall him ever reaching a point where I'd vote him over anybody else.

[Grendel]

I'm too tired to figure out whether or not there is scum between Zoronos and Penguin.

I'll be happy with a LUV flip at this point.

VOTE: LUV

This is 1-L

@Mod I'm going to be out of action until Wednesday evening. So I guess that's V/LA for like 48+ hours?

[Grendel]

Uhh, you guys totally spent the last three pages jumping at shadows. Scum want to claim a strong PR that isn't directly provable to deter potential lynches for the purpose of survival.

The cop had claimed, so the next logical step is to grab onto a protective role.

Just lynch LUV already.

[Grendel]

Oh, and JailKeeper + Cop makes way more sense then Doctor +Cop.

With two town aligned aesthetics I don't see scum getting a strong-arm kill.

[Grendel]

@Mod I'm going to be out of action until Wednesday evening. So I guess that's V/LA for like 48+ hours?

Noted. Please make sure to mark yourself V/LA via your User Control Panel as well. In the future, bold this in the thread to make sure I see it.

Thanks for the tip.

I actually was sure how the whole V/LA stuff worked up until now.

I'm back too btw.

[Grendel]

My town read on nn30 is taking a considerable hit.

Boring is now town. Zoronos is prob town.

I need to revaluate Deirfire in the near future. Me wanting him to be town doesn't make in more likely to be town.

Also I apologize to Zoro, and Penguin. I think I may have come across as ruder then I should have the other day. I was in a bad mood.

I think that's all I have to say tonight. If you ppls have any big change in your reads it'd be great if you could post then before EoD is over.

Pre edit: I did nuat hit her I did nuat...Oh hai Deir.

[Grendel]

Yo guys, I didn't get around to revaluating my reads or anything last night. I will have to do that now or something.

Probably not posting anything dense until tomorrow though. I should be able to sit down and think things through better then.

[Grendel]

Spoiler:

Official Vote Count 1.36

Lynching

FINAL

[b]eagerSnake[/b] (7): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Dierfire, Prism, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert
boring (4): MariaR, implosion, nn30, eagerSnake

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Grendel

V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)

Official Vote Count 2.25

Lynching

FINAL

Lil Uzi Vert (6): Prism, Grendel, Zoronos, boring, Gamma Emerald, PenguinPower
Penguin Power (1): nn30
boring (1): Dierfire
nn30 (1): Shadow_step
Zoronos (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (1): implosion

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-30 12:31:00)

Green= confirmed town, Blue= I Will not lynch, Red= Confirmed scum

Going off the final vote counts from D1 and D2, I think that nn30 is most likely scum here. If not then that would have meant that every scum would have been on the Eager wagon, which I guess is a possibility too lol.

Town is in a good position to win from my POV. So I'm not too concerned about the "what ifs" right now.

VOTE: NN30

[Grendel]

@Prism

Can you link some games where you bussed as scum?

I know its offsite, and unless the meta is drastically different I don't really mind that.

[Grendel]

@Shadow

I still think you're pretty townish, but something has been nagging at me since I read it.

Brilliant, all the lynch baits got all the good PRs :/

Why were you so quick to buy LUV's claim here?

[Grendel]

Coincidence.

I've been raising hell all game.

Please, go through and find scummy reasons for me to be tunneling Gamma, Boring, Shadow, you, and briefly Implosion.

Would you do me a solid and quote your reasoning for tunneling each of these people? (I honestly don't feel like slogging through iso's tonight)

I can't speak for the others, but I seem to recall you were on the tail end of the Gamma wagon, and that your biggest point against him was his inability to keep his reads straight. Right?

[Grendel]

^
That's the dude I jailed. I could see him on the most possible scum teams, he didn't seem to have any skeptiscm on LUV's claim (instantly jumped to clearly scum) and his vote on LUV was in prime bussing position.

I find it dumb that your first response to the kill going through is "Oh, Well, Scum must have role blocking power, or a strongman kill", instead of, "the night kill went through so maybe Grendel is town".

Its the equivalent of a tracker watching a suspect that didn't move at night and going into the next day with a vote on the person who didn't make the kill. What's worse is that with only two mafia left, there would have been a 50% chance that you'd block a kill. So me being 50%less likely to be scum Obviously means nothing to you. You're frosting a card board cake, you want that sweet conclusion of Grendel!scum so you stretch the ingredients you're given to meet the taste you want.

In short, you are setting your self up for a terribad tunnel.

VOTE: Grendel

If you don't like me you should come out and say it instead of finding excuses to sr me.

Pre-edit:

I mean, you could consider reading the rest of the sentence.

Lulz. I like you.

Rephrase: So, your jailing of Grendel was entirely in response to his take on LUV?

Not entirely, but it was a significant factor.
During nightphase I re-read him and LUV and I got the distinct impression they were largely ignoring eachother. I find that behavior is common amongst scum buddies (though not strictly indicating)
Furthermore, he was the primary pusher of the two non-LUV trains yesterday. Putting it all together, yeah, suspicion is high now that LUV has flipped scum.

I won't deny that I kept LUV are tertiary scum read most the game without pushing that read on LUV. It was more due to previous experiences with LUV getting mislynched then his play this game. I thought he was putting some actual effort in this game instead of fence sitting the whole way through, so I'd felt horrible if he flipped town in this situation. But at the same time there wasn't anything particular town from that slot, and he'd say and do things that ping me from time to time too.

I pushed Gamma, and then LUV. Who is the third wagon?

Penguin/Eager? Those were both D1 though. :/

Pre-Pre Edit:
Meta is not garbage, and my case on Gamma was not all meta. Stop attacking my play style. Or is that just you attempting to "further a case" on me because you've literally run out of other reasons why I'm scum?

[Grendel]

I find it dumb that your first response to the kill going through is "Oh, Well, Scum must have role blocking power, or a strongman kill", instead of, "the night kill went through so maybe Grendel is town".

I already went over why this is likely, and it has nothing to do with you and everything to do with the fact that it was Gamma that was killed. The short version is no sane scum team kills Gamma over me without some jail breaking ability.

Well a role blocker doesn’t make sense with a Jail keeper because of the impending priority clashes. Games with both a jail keeper and a role blocker are very rare here. A strong man doesn’t make sense with two town aesthetics because it’d mean that scum get three free kills. Which would be unbalanced. A rolestopper could work, but isn’t a common role. Though, there is the chance I am wrong here. Ultimately it’s not something I need to spend much time adderssing.

You were super vocal about other people using night analysis, but you are now okay with using it because that’s the extent you want me to be scum. That’d you’d take up methods of game play that you previously wrote off has unhelpful, and push it on me.

Its the equivalent of a tracker watching a suspect that didn't move at night and going into the next day with a vote on the person who didn't make the kill. What's worse is that with only two mafia left, there would have been a 50% chance that you'd block a kill. So me being 50%less likely to be scum Obviously means nothing to you. You're frosting a card board cake, you want that sweet conclusion of Grendel!scum so you stretch the ingredients you're given to meet the taste you want.

Only a fool thinks this way; absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. That I didn't get an active hit doesn't change my priors (which were that you were scum). If I went 'Well, I guess I didn't stop the kill, he must be town' I would be the worst jailkeeper player ever unless I knew there was only one scum remaining. It doesn't change the odds that you're scum at all. I scum read you, ergo I jailed you. The results of my (negative) jail have no impact on my reads. Tying those correlations together without further knowledge about how the kill happened is awful play.

Also, belaboring that point with attacks on credibility is super scummy. So.

I’m not saying that you should read me as confirmed town. I’m saying that the night kill going through should have given you some pause to reevaluate. This did not happen afaik and that suggests to me that you’d scum read me whether or not you had evidence point towards scum!Grendel. Also, before you start running your mouth that I’m ignoring that you brought other points to the table, no I’m not. I'm just saying in this instance you would still want to scum read me even if every detail was appernt that I'm town.

How is me telling you that you are being unreasonable with your concclusions scummy?

quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=8468223#p8468223]post 2264 [/url], Zoronos"]

In short, you are setting your self up for a terribad tunnel.

Calls case tunnel. Check.

If you don't like me you should come out and say it instead of finding excuses to sr me.

Attempts to discredit case by calling it personal rather than addressing the points. Check.

That’s not what I said. I said that you are setting yourself up for a tunnel. Predicting what is coming, is different than saying what is.

Dude it’s pretty clear that you don’t like me with how you intentionally step on my toes every chance you get. Every time I do anything this game you follow up with some remark about how the avenues I’m pursing are a waste of time, and how my cases are crap. Like I can’t have my own opiian, or god forbid be right about something. Its like you had to go back and rub in how your more experienced you are, and show me up whenever you can! And no, you saying that its just about a case and not my play style is a lie, you have a low opinion of me, all it takes is some reading in between the lines to see that. Even in this postr your inferring that I wasn’t feel horrible that I tunneled Gamma into claiming, which led to his nk. I legitimately thought he was scum then! So yes, you’re against me, on personal grounds, because I have no idea why you’d keep insinuating things like this unless you have a low opinion of me in the first place!

Meta is not garbage, and my case on Gamma was not all meta. Stop attacking my play style. Or is that just you attempting to "further a case" on me because you've literally run out of other reasons why I'm scum?

Your case on Gamma was terrible. I told you it was bad before Gamma roleclaimed. It told you it was bad after he roleclaimed. Attacking that case is *not* attacking playstyle, it is attacking a bad case. So, yes, your meta case is garbage.

That you don't seem to take into account that your 'playstyle' (it's not a playstyle) led you actively wrong and then didn't correct that at all suggests that you either lack the ability to self-analyze, or don't care that what you're doing is leading you to case poorly. That's scummy, because the team that doesn't care if they case town are the scum.

Anyway, back to the checklist:
Reframing scum case as 'attack on playstyle (a NAI factor)' - Check.
Reframes end of post as assumption of end of case - Check.

A preferred method of playing the game is a play style. Quit nit picking. I can have bad games, btw. I have had games were I did great nailing scum working off of RQS, then wagon analysis, and into night analysis after a couple of days. Once I get to the late game I review my team hunts, to find which connections stayed true based off of later flips. You’re saying based off of one game were things went really sour I should rework the entire way I play? That’s a crap thing to say. If I accused you of a bad play style you wouldn’t immediately start changing how you play to appease others! Why did you expect me to do that?

I didn't assume the case was over. I was voicing my fusteration because I view you case on me to be easily disproven if you were willing to not view things in a b/w perspective.

How do I explain this? I’m actually very against bussing as scum, and would have never done it. I believe that mafia is a team game, and that bussing a buddy is playing like a survivor. I want to work with a team to meet an end goal, and the idea of ditching people to get temporay town read doesn't seem worth it to me. In my case the benefits of bussing, never outwieght the benefits of trying to keep the team together. Like, I’m actually really wary of going in deep as scum by myself. I suck at One v one, and most likely wouldn’t be able to keep up the motivation needed to power through lylo. So I wouldn’t help town lynch scum because I recognize that means that I have to fight harder later on. If I were scum this game I would have dug my heels in somewhere else, or lurked out EoD without voting LUV. I also, for the record, don’t keep scum buddies as back pocket reads. I've kept LUV in null-scum then entire game. Keeping my scum buddy as null-scum would have pout me in a postion where I had to lynch LUV. I wouldn't have done that.

But knowing you. You'll just write this off as "Scum self metaing". I don’t care at this point though. Because I realize that if nothing I said raises any doubts in your head then there really isn’t anything I can do with you. I’ll just move on to something else. I feel like all that's gonna happen with interacting with you is me getting way madder then I should ever be at a game.

Preedit- Ugh, I don't feel like reformatting. I'll just bold response that got cuasght in the spoiler.

[Grendel]

@Grendel - please look at the following spoiler. It has stuff in it specifically for you.

Spoiler:

-The way the Penguin Power handles LUV feels off to me. I may need to look into this more in future.

Funnily enough I would like to see Penguin lynched now that Gamma is highly likely town. But I don't trust you at all. I mean I'd be just as content with yours as Penguin's lynch right now.

I'd like your current thoughts on these statements, Grendel, now that we know LUV was scum and Gamma was town.

Oh yes that, I haven't been think about scum teams like I had mid D2. I was feeling much sure of myself then I did since Gamma outing. I generally do better keeping my tools sharp when I feel I'm breaking the game wide open. That fire has diminished considerably.

Pengiun is an okay wagon.

I'm just plus positive that their must have been scum off the D1 wagon, and everybody has been eliminated but you so...

[Grendel]

What did you mean by bread crumbs?

It sems like you're saying that I was coaching LUV?

Why would I do that when I'd have scum chat?

[Grendel]

I had this weird feeling creeping up on me yesterday that Prisum has been trying to pocket me this whole game.

But has made zero attempts at white knighting since I've come under fire. So I guess I was wrong?

[Grendel]

I'm getting close to committing to POE here.
I have more reasons, but I think that their claims are sufficient to have Shadow_step and Zoronos as Town.
I think that Prism is unlikely to be Mafia given the protracted conflict with Lil Uzi Vert. More powerful than his reasons for voting Lil Uzi Vert is the reaction that Lil Uzi Vert has to those reasons and the way that Prism follows up in conversation. In the quotes below, Prism is pursuing Lil Uzi Vert while Lil Uzi Vert appears to be evading Prism rather than engaging with him, which is an unusual pattern for Mafia partners.

I'm ambivalent about nn30; certainly the D1 VC were suspicious if boring is Town, but nn30 spends a lot of time on the wagons of players in my POE lynching pool and I don't find the Shadow_step wagon after his claim a likely place for two Mafia players to stack. At any rate I will say that nn30 should not be Mafia with boring (because nn30 and Lil Uzi Vert should not have been stacking on Shadow_step in 900 if eagerSnake is the main alternative to boring). I also may want to rule out a team of nn30 and PenguinPower based on the VC in 2079 (if nn30 were to vote for a partner, the one about to be lynched makes more sense).

So, I'd like to vote for Grendel or boring today.

VOTE: Grendel

Why do you think scum would be scared of stacking on Shadow when Shadow was never the one getting lynched D1?

You may have a point on NN30 not taking advantage of LUV. But I'm usually inclined to think that bussing scum is the leader of the pack. No offence to nn30's skill, but their are other players that would be better canidantes for scum leader then him.

Well a role blocker doesn’t make sense with a Jail keeper because of the impending priority clashes. Games with both a jail keeper and a role blocker are very rare here.

Yeah. So, super rare, that they are standard in the newbie Matrix6 setup. Can I overemphasize this...

Nope. I can't.

In closed set ups like these it is rare! newbies are semi open.

I can even pull up the stats if you want them!

@Grendel - the boring wagon where I'm the lone unflipped person (except for Boring of course). Keep in mind that scum have control of NK's. They chose to kill MariaR first day. That could have been me and you'd be saying the same thing to an unflipped MariaR.

It looks hinky, and could add to a case, but it shouldn't be the basis of one. Just like you being jailed and the NK still happening shouldn't clear you of being scum.

p-edit: @Grendel - I am not suggesting you were coaching LUV. I"m suggesting you scum!Grendel saw the writing on the wall (LUV's impending doom) and chose to leave a trail of breadcrumbs suggesting you "thought" about it long enough to seem town when you join the wagon.

@Boring - thanks for the insight. Gun to your head - is Grendel scum?

Its possible. Do you think scum were trying to set you up as mislynch?

I've already established that I hate bussing. I've already established that I don't keep back pocket reads.

Intially I was kind of guilty to bring up this meta thing since its so cheap, but if I'm up for mislynch just because I wasn't hard on LUV until his pending lynch then screw it. I refuse to be mislycnhed for such a bad associative that seems to be the biggest part of the case in everybody's Scum!Grendel folios. Especially when I don't think it applies to me in the first place.

[Grendel]

@DeirFire

This situation where I'm arguing against the of existence of a role blocker is some serous irony right?

I guess its karma.

[Grendel]

Consider how much I value meta, do you really think I'd soil my ability to self meta in future by using it as scum?

I brought it up because of the two who voted before me.

Ugh, I really wish that Zoronos had held off on his case until I heard more of the other player's reads on me. At this point is hard to tell who went into today town reading me, and who went into today scum reading me, and I can't see the legitimacy of any bodies feelings on me.

PRe edit

@Boring - thanks for the insight. Gun to your head - is Grendel scum?

He's not the towniest player in the game, but he's not in my bottom two. So probably not as things stand. (you don't have enough gym badges to stop me from turning a yes/no question into a full sentence)

@Grendel - what's your current feel on me? I know your vote is still on me. Have your opinions changed at all based on the last few pages?

I'm trying to figure you out. I'll have to sleep on it.

I can even pull up the stats if you want them!

I would. This is my first normal.

k hold on

[Grendel]

Actually, wait, I have get off for tonight.

I just realized that its getting late and I haven't done my hw...

I'll get back to this tomarrow

[Grendel]

I was going to do original research, but I’ll just copy Hoopla’s research in mini normal 1809. She was in a similar situation that I am now. Where I was scum reading her, like Zoronos is scum reading me now. She was trying to convince me against the existence of a role blocker, though the order of events was different lol. At that point I was on mask, who was scum.
lol idk how to properly quote from a locked thread.

In post 1007, Grendel wrote:
Wouldn't scum have a role blocker since town had a jailkeeper? Maybe I'm used to different setups, but having a jail keeper makes mafia role blocker a confirmed role in the game right?
Assuming Mask is a vig, and scum has a role blocker then Mask is not confirmable.
I'm still inclined to think he is scum anyways tho.

Post #1008 (isolation #76) » Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:18 pm
Because having two blocking roles in one setup opens the door to paradoxes and messier night interactions, as such, mods tend to avoid doing it. I just did a quick scan of 13p Mini Normals with Jailkeepers. There were 30 games with a town jailkeeper and only four of those had scum RB's too, so I think it's highly likely that Masq will get a shot off tonight if he indeed has one.

If you think he is scum, fine, but lets lynch him tomorrow after he's had a chance to confirm himself tonight. Massclaim tomorrow might also narrow the game down enough to be able to tell whether his claim fits in the possible setup.

Except you can change that ratio too 31:5 since we did have a role blocker, and a jail keeper that game. The mod, Deirfire, used an Ascetic Role blocker to prevent priority clashes between the two roles...

Despite my initial stance, I actually do think that there is a role blocker now, and I think I know who this scum lord is too.

@Boring - thanks for the insight. Gun to your head - is Grendel scum?

He's not the towniest player in the game, but he's not in my bottom two. So probably not as things stand. (you don't have enough gym badges to stop me from turning a yes/no question into a full sentence)

@Grendel - what's your current feel on me? I know your vote is still on me. Have your opinions changed at all based on the last few pages?

I'm trying to figure you out. I'll have to sleep on it.

Nn30, Initially I thought your knee jerk reaction to my vote at the start of the day was pretty scummy. But I forgot that you’re new to the site, and it is more a sign of your newness here then straight up scum opportunistic play. Primarily because as scum I don’t think you’d unvote, then put all this effort into thinking about the game state as a whole. If you were scum I’d imagine that you would be perfectly happy to ride me to my death.

I had some serous paranoia about you over the course of night two, but I’m pretty over it now. It was how you went on that tangent at EoD yesterday about serial killers. As a rule of thumb I find players that are paranoid about third party roles with night kill capabilities to be a scum tell. Mainly since a SK would be a threat to scum during the night, and can be leashed by town if found out making them as dangers as a vigilante to the mafia. I guess it sounds silly in this context, but it’s a legitimate tell on the other site I play at... I hope Gamma isn’t taking notes from the dead thread.

There is also the matters of POE on the boring wagon when I came into today, but I’ve lost my initial confidence that boring is town due to associative to another player I think is scum now.

I also don’t think that effort necessarily equals alignment, but I do think that faking the effort you have throughout the game is reflective of somebody with a lot more experience the you seem to actually have. I briefly entertained the idea that you could have more experience then you let on. I recall you playing lots of different games of deception for fun in you submitted RQS answers. But all the tangents you hit throughout the game sound a lot more like somebody who is newer to the game, and in interested in how things work, then somebody experienced. Even the sk thing in retrospect.

[Grendel]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Shadow step

I'll have to come back later to give my case.

[Grendel]

Consider how much I value meta, do you really think I'd soil my ability to self meta in future by using it as scum?

I think this line of reasoning will paint you into a corner, since truth-tells are against this site's rules.

My slot isn’t compromised because people will have to take my word for it. I'm not posting hard irrefutable evidence like a role pm, or something. Even If I were to quote all the times I talked crap about bussing as a strategy thats still only as good as my ethos.

If you think I’m town why are you fishing for a mod-kill? :/

[Grendel]

The connection of the second Ascetic being a role blocker:

1) I hate to admit it, but Zoronos is right about scum being way to confidant to go after Gamma without a means to negate his power.

2) If there were two roles capable of negating night actions, the mod would have to decide which gets priority; giving the scum rb an aesthetic modifier solves this issue.

3) With Shadow being an ascetic it makes more sense for him to be a role blocker because his modifier with allow him to bypass Zoronos's blocking ablities.

4) All things considered from a set up perspective, town and mafia having one ascetic makes more sense than town getting two ascetics, while scum also gets something to counter town protectives. Unless we have another 3+ town power, (lol), then this isn't an incredibility anti-town set up.

I won’t remove a strong man from the table, but given that Shadow is arguing that instead of a role blocker is giving me bad vibes. Especially now that I have had this realization regarding Shadow.

I guess I should address the elephant in the room first. The reason why everybody has a mutual town read on Shadow: his counter claim. Heck, even I thought it was a pretty town motivated thing to do, cc another unlikely role in the only makes sense. The thing is though that I have witnessed enough games to recognizing risky D1 scum gambits. They go hard and long D1, until everybody is convinced that there is no way the slot could be scum. Then once cleared by the other players they lurk until the late game. Compare this to shadow’s activity this game. 166 posts D1. 35 posts D2. 15 posts so far today. He becomes significantly less aggressive with his pushes going into the second day, and many of his opinions are not memorable. As in looking over his iso, I’m seeing things I never really noticed before.

Some things I noticed going through his isolated posts:

Spoiler:

VOTE: LUV

This is a scum PR we need to get riD of ASAP.

Looks like LUV has been advised to play dumb and play newb like.
Needs death.

-Shadow had started out D1 with a vote on LUV, and then proceeds to distance him until he comes to the conclusion that LUV null. Looks like scum pretending to sort scum.

N30 has been obv town since the start of this.

The fact gamma isn't obv town when I've obv town read him before is worrying

the LUV townreads make me laugh.

I'm gonna look more into a few players that don't need names but with the amount of people I am slowly going like "you can be town" these players are....

If penguin is scum, LUV is town.
I do agree on that town reading LUV is kinda dumb.

- Its common for scum to link their buddies to other players in mutally exclusive relationships. Though I find the order a bit weird.

-With the usage of the scum pt it is not unreasonable that Shadow could have plotted out his counter claim in advance. I believe he is of the ability to organize this as scum. Town reading him for it would be folly.

I'm not lynching anyone but eager today.
If there are two ascetics. This game is bastard.

So I'd rather believe eager is scum than this game is bastard.

- Shadow step calling the game bastard seems like a redirect to get town to blame to mod’s set up choices instead of Shadow once Eager flips scum. It also gives him an excuse to spend the whole day tunneling Eager, and be justified by the outcome regardless what Eager flips. He do say this as town, but it'd be an awfully convenit stance to take as scum sense he can look like aggressive town while not actually being aggressive towards other players. So he gets no back lash for statements like this.

Hmm I got my facts wrong. Eggman and eager were both useless I thought eager got lynched for the cult win.

- Scum slip. A low expections of Eager. As scum Shadow would view him as an easy mislynch. Suggests that Shadow would have been more confidence pushing a cc on Eager then somebody else.

If he thinks I'm scum, I would obviously not consider Eager to be town. Why the hell would I? He then says that Eager could be lying town. Implying he knows eager I town. Lying as town is very risky. Not just in that game. But you can get blacklisted.
LUV treats me as if I am town here.

To be noted

- Shadeow’s read of LUV bounces throughout D1, but ultimately it appears that LUV is a null read for him given how Shadow keeps a suspicion on him without acting on it. It isn’t until this point that he seems legitimately interested in lynching LUV… until he moves over to Gamma.

Brilliant, all the lynch baits got all the good PRs :/

VOTE: Nn

- 2092 Immediately buys that LUV is doctor. I think this could be a last second reprieve to see if LUV can live another day or two.

Someone needs to unvote before luv self hammers.

He will hammer cause he is scum.
Probably going bonkers in his at.

- 2099 & 2102 This reads like damage control. Trying to back away from LUV as fast as he can.

- Shadow spends a lot of time on set up speculation D2…

Lil Uzi Vert, Mafia Goon, was lynched Day 2.

It is now Night 2. Please PM all night actions to me by the deadline, or bold them in your associated private thread.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-29 08:44:00)

Only if bastars mod hadn't put 2 town ascetics, had this scum fuck day 1.

- Takes credit for the lynch of somebody he only kept as a scum lean and only pushed whenever Shadow thought LUV said something particularly bad. Usually something directed at Shadow too. Also Shadow is once again painting the mod as the scape goat. Maybe it's just me, but shadow has been evading the responsibility for his actions this game, starting with his fake 1-L vote on Pengiun back in Day 1.

Seeing how the most town thing I had to say about Shadow going into today was his behavior D1 tells me that he has been keeping a low profile since Eager flipped. Also nobody pointing out some of these things means that everybody has written off Shadow as town. Which imo is a big mistake that I too was a part of yesterday. The entire purpose of a powerful D1 scum gambit is to rack up enough town cred to slide into the endgame. This is exactly what Shadow is doing.

You know, I had originally thought that Shadow step was an investigative role given his jump on Gamma at the start of D2 along the lines of “Oh yeah, this is scum btw”. I thought that he was softing a guilty, the same way he did at the start of D1 where he remarked how easy the game will be after Eager’s claim. There was also how much attention Shadow gives Maria D1, and her general feelings were that Gamma wasn’t Ob!town like she was expecting him to be. More reasoning I had down in my notes is that two regular townies modified with straight aesthetics modifiers and nothing else, would be really anti town. So I thought that Shadow should be a cop or some such.

[Grendel]

I see several people I want to respond too. But I don't have time to night to answer them all, so I'm just gonna answer a couple.

@Grendel - You make some interesting points about Shadow, which I'll get to in a minute.

1) What reason did you originally have for scum reading me?

2) What are your feelings on the Boring case?

1) I already explained this. I viewed your sk tangent as a legitimate scum slip. Also went into today thinking that there must have been scum off the Eager wagon, so PoE. Your reaction to my vote on you at the start of today was pretty bad too.

At one point I thought you might be scum for jumping on several of my scum reads through yesterday. Mainly thinking of Gamma/Pengiun then. But you did have me as a top town read throughout much of the game so that would be a decent reason why.

2) I think that boring is town, but a lot of it is based off of gut, and notes I took yesterday. I don't think I can lynch her.

That reminds me, I've yet to revaluate most the roster. I usually do that during the night cycle, not sure why I've been so lazy about it this game.

It's nice how Grendel wants to lynch me out of setup spec when he himself condemns me for it.
If I was maf RB I wouldn't kill GE I could just keep blocking him and kitll Zoro.
Killing GE gives town a confirmed town aka Implosion. Why am I making it harder for myself

Maybe because I find the set up speculation your putting forward is really scummy?

I find it incredibly unlikely that you can be town, and scum has a strongman. That combination would give scum three unblockable kills. I thinks its more likely that you are scum, and the scum have a strong man then you being town right now.

The reason you're arguing this instead of something that makes more sense is because your modifier incriminates you by making you, as a role blocker, have priory over the jailkeeper.

A cop is a bigger threat to scum then a jail keeper. Especially if the jail keeper in question has scum, you, as a top town read. Like Zoronos would never think to lynch you in a hundred years.

[Grendel]

I had this weird feeling creeping up on me yesterday that Prisum has been trying to pocket me this whole game.

But has made zero attempts at white knighting since I've come under fire. So I guess I was wrong?

In past days I've said virtually nothing about your alignment, the only times I did were that I liked your RVS questions and that I liked one specific post Day 2. The only reason I've ever given to townread you is based off Maria's death. In contrast, I've also pointed out that certain posts of yours were bad, and some of them worse yet replying to me without actually reading the original post (which suggests you weren't interested in them to begin with). You've been basically in the middle to bottom half of the game, and I've made it explicit that I intend to vote you today if I can't get boring. If boring is town, you are almost certainly scum by PoE. If boring is scum, you are still a very likely candidate for the partner.

You didn't even acknowledge repeated announcements for you as a potential alternative lynch, both today and yesterday. I'm not just not whiteknighting you, I'm straight up more on the offense. Between this and 2-3 other posts that appear unconcerned as to what I'm actually thinking, and boring pushing a PP lynch, you've definitely earned the second spot. I'll ISO you sometime tomorrow night.

If I’ve been bouncing around the middle of bottom you reads what was up with the times you scratched my chin? Like announcing whenever I made a high quality post? Do you just randomly hand out compliments to your scum reads?

Yea, I had you as town for a while, but wasn’t super interested in teaming up with you so I didn’t give your posts and cases priority over the others that I needed to sort, or was more interested in generally. Do you normally consider people that are clearly disinterested in you to be scummy?

I could see what you mean if I had you down as a strong scum read, but that isn't the case.

I’m pretty sure the only time I entirely forgot something you presented was when I was confused that you blindly followed Implosion’s meta argument, which you explained as a miscommunication. You are now mad that I had forgotten that first encounter, which I am explaining as a miscommunication on my part. Do you want an Asop, or is my point clear?

2) I think that boring is town, but a lot of it is based off of gut, and notes I took yesterday. I don't think I can lynch her.

What do you think of the case on her though? Obviously you believe it to be incorrect - why though?

The thing about the boring case is that I feel like she has been in a lot of peoples scum lean for much of the game. In this position its more likely that scum would try to lurk out the pressure. From what I’ve seen boring has been pretty on top of things and actively contributing to the gamestate. The near constant pressure makes me think that town is just being paranoid, thus watching and dissecting boring more than any other player. Also, more than town paranoia there is the chance of mafia taking advantage of this at some point, and into today.

Things that could possibly point to scum boring look circumstantial, like scum reading her for her unvote to LUV. It seems like she had some doubts about the Doc claim but didn’t want to make a mistake and accidentally flip the town doctor. It was a pretty natural reaction that I don’t think was fake. I don’t wholly understand how LUV’s lack of a counter strike towards boring should paint boring as bussing scum since LUV would want to distance himself from boring, which I don’t really recall happening. I also don't see boring being the hard bussing type, and she was on the LUV wagon for extended periods of time all of D2, even with the existence of an appetizing Gamma wagon was happening on the side. She had multiple times she could of justified leaving the LUV wagon. The only time she unvoted LUV was when he fake claimed, but most people did at the time so...

I don’t agree with what Eager had as a case on boring. I don’t agree with his tone read on boring being happy with the D1 cc. Or his assurance that boring must be scum based off a lack of action on her wagon early into D1. I mainly believe this to be so because there were people who voiced suspicions, but didn’t scum read her enough to put any more votes down. I think if scum were jumping on boring’s wagon they’d do it when she was the focus of discussion. Lastly, the fact that Penguin is swayed by Eager’s argument now after a whole day goes by looks opportunistic. If he truly thought that Eager was on to something why did he why so long to point this out?

I still don’t think Maria night kill points towards boring!scum.

I did wonder when I first thought that shadow is scum if he was hard defending boring because he wouldn’t want another buddy bussed with him being a claimed role and all. But at the same time, if shadow sees that town!boring is today’s lynch he may be trying to put himself in a good light by town reading her.

[Grendel]

@Grendel

lol idk how to properly quote from a locked thread.

If you hit the "PM" button at the lower left of a post, whether or not the thread is locked, it will generate a draft with post quoted (it will be a PM draft, but you can copy/paste that into a post in the correct thread, and I usually clean up the quote tag as well so that it looks good).

---
You make some interesting points about Shadow_step that I'll consider further. What do you think of the fact that boring was having doubt about Shadow_step (2290), and the posts from Lil Uzi Vert that I quoted in response (2292)?

Spoiler:

@boring

@Dierfire - Can you explain why you are certain about Shadow being town? I still have some doubt, based on the facts that he's unconfirmed and eager really was town ascetic.

A few of the posts that Lil Uzi Vert directed at Shadow_step seemed like unlikely partner interactions to me.

Good this should be an easy game. I have a couple of town reads too.
Need to hear more from Slandaar/Maria/Diet to sort them out.

You keep implying this game will be easy. I seriously hope you have a backup plan for when I flip town.

This reads to me like ATE, which is a technique used against a Town player rather than a partner.

Calling me a VI? Okay that is just bullshit.
Esp since you have no idea with am I talking about.

Never called you a VI, I thought you was one though. Why so angry?

And you're right, I don't know what you're talking about, but no one else does either. Mind sharing what knowledge you may or may not have to determine how you're finding this game easier then the rest of us?

This seems a little too confrontational to be staged. Also the "do you mind sharing" bit seems like Lil Uzi Vert is legitimately probing for information rather than teeing up a partner.

Yeah I honestly don't know what the hell happened the last 5 pages, just seems like poorly calculated move by Shadow regardless if he's telling the truth or not.

This makes it seem as though Lil Uzi Vert was not in on the plan if Shadow_step is Mafia with an elaborate claim strategy.

I’ve always seen “I hope you know what to do when I flip town”, to be a meaningless statement that is Non-ai, and could easily be fake for distancing.

I think your second point could be faked on Shadow’s part, and I don’t find LUV especially confrontational there. If shadow were planning to run a cc gambit against Eager then I’m unsure why LUV would be poking at it. Since that would be what he was doing here. It doesn’t rule them out as a scum team though.

For your last point I’d say that LUV wouldn't take a stance that demonstrated that he was in a knowing position. Kind of why I feel like his push on Shadow later into the day was to distance himself from Shadow down the road. This point could technically justify the previous one now that I think about it.

I like that boring expressed some skepticism on Shadow because I feel the slot deserves some skepticism. If Shadow really is town I don't think that scum would be ballzy enough to bring up this point while Shadow is generally town read. If Shadow and boring were partners I don't think boring would call him out on it either. Thank you for pointing me to this because it has completely destroyed the possibility of boring being scum with Shadow.

I meant to ask this earlier, but do you know if our mod had knowledge of 1809?

I feel like most people are viewing this as a left felid theory, and I want something to reel them into the possibility that Shadow is scum. I am interested in any further considerations you have for me.

You said that your vote on me was PoE, have you found anything beyond that since?

[Grendel]

The fact that nn30 was off the Eager wagon is more damning. Scum knew he was town and didn't want to be on his wagon. They wanted town to destroy themselves, look at LUV's wagon position. He was so reluctant to join the Eager wagon.

Okay, so Shadow is scum and scums were all on Eager’s wagon D1. In retrospect, that would explain LUV’s awkward hammer at EoD. It also explains MariaR’s death, made to prevent people narrowing down scum on Eager wagon. Shadow entered into D2 talking about how Eager was the proper lynch and all that jazz to dissuade scum hunting off of that wagon.

on

Let's be frank, any scum lynch will have scum on the train bussing.
The line *I* draw is "is my scum read the person leading the train". I know that's why I refused to hop on the LUV train yesterday.

Do you think Penguin is leading this train? (Let's be fair, I haven't been paying much attention the past 2 days, so I just don't know at this point.)

He isn't leading it, but I don't expect scum to buss today. With one scum down and 3-4 conf townies. Unless the lynch of the buddy is inevitable I don't expect scum to buss.

At this point it might be as easy as a grendel/boring scum team. Grendel is trying to lynch me because he doesn't want to buss boring.

Scum projecting his guilt on me.

Since you're scum with a claimed role you absolutely don't want to bus this game. Reflective with your intent to hammer LUV yesterday which led to an immediate fold back after the claim. Even your reaction looks super staged.

-mind=blown-

lol

[Grendel]

The thing is though that I have witnessed enough games to recognizing risky D1 scum gambits.

The problem with this is that I just very simply don't think scum-shadow would think to randomly counterclaim the immediate ascetic claim, and he immediately breadcrumbed. You are right that his play is worthy of a bit more thought in light of the possibility that he's a scum ascetic but I do not think there's any chance that he's scum unless he counterclaimed because he thought it was what he'd do as a town ascetic. Which is possible. But I think the rest of his play is town-indicative still. It's worth some consideration at massclaim time.

Hmmm

Well how do you feel about the huge drop in his activity going into D2?

Do you think scum Shadow isn't capable of planning something like that out?

Outside of D1 what did you find townie about his play?

[Grendel]

@boring

Would you be willing to lynch Shadow with me?

[Grendel]

Lots of Bravado=/=Convincing me

I can see scum motivation behind lots of your posts, and no, you are not confirmed town.

[Grendel]

If we're mass claiming it'd be better to do it sooner rather then later.

The longer we wait the more time scum has to ponder plausible roles to fake claim.

[Grendel]

I'm fine with whatever list is finalized by Implosion.

Just don't dilly dally about it.

@Implosion, after this can you explain what you found to be town about Shadow's play yesterday, and today?

[Grendel]

Right, lets do it:
Penguin
Deirfire
Nn30
Prism
Boring
Grendel
Implosion
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
@Zoronos, I would love to hear a more developed case against me frankly.

-Optimal bussing position, not moved by LUV’s original claim
-My reaction to your vote, and the scum tells you associated with it.
-Using bad play to hide scummy intent

Is there anything else here you want to add?

@ALL

Call me egotistical, but I’d like a novel written about my escapades if I’m gonna be mislynched. Can people who are scum reading me detail why they are scum reading me currently?

[Grendel]

NN30... Why am I duking it out with boring for your most scummiest read, meanwhile you seem the most skeptical of Shadow's slot when I started pushing shadow more then anybody else has since D1?

Before my push you thought he was town yea?

[Grendel]

NN30... Why am I duking it out with boring for your most scummiest read, meanwhile you seem the most skeptical of Shadow's slot when I started pushing shadow more then anybody else has since D1?

Before my push you thought he was town yea?

I mean, I haven't gone back to all your pushes to hard confirm this, but I recall you chiming in whenever the tide of suspicion changed throughout the game, and that's bugging me out. Like, that has some viable scum motivation behind it...

Also nn30, what are you current reasons for scum reading me?

[Grendel]

Right, lets do it:
Penguin
Deirfire
Nn30
Prism
Boring
Grendel
Implosion
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
@Zoronos, I would love to hear a more developed case against me frankly.

-Optimal bussing position, not moved by LUV’s original claim
-My reaction to your vote, and the scum tells you associated with it.
-Using bad play to hide scummy intent

Is there anything else here you want to add?

@ALL

Call me egotistical, but I’d like a novel written about my escapades if I’m gonna be mislynched. Can people who are scum reading me detail why they are scum reading me currently?

Holy shit list makes no sense.
So your top 2 candidates for scum and PP and I?
So in a world where I am buddies with PP and LUV. On day 1 I make a crazy push for LUV head, then I start a PP wagon? Then I fake hammer him? LUV has both me and PP as his scum reads. LUV busses me and distances from Penguin.
All this distancing and bussing on day 1, are you for real?

Truth be told you aren’t my strongest scum read. I mainly went after you because i figured that if i didn’t do it now, and I’m lynched today, then nobody would do it in the future. At least, not the likes of Zoronos, or Implosion who are living in a world were scum never pull any unusual gambits. I can drop it since my vote and case have established the reasonable doubt which won’t let you slide into the endgame unnoticed. I’m glad to see my voice went into good use.

My goal since 2372 was to line up Penguin, Deirfire, then you as the lynches for the next three days whether I’m alive to see them or not. I believe I have you boxed in for lylo, so now I work on Penguin, and then... Deirfire.

As far as teams go i think its:

LUVxPengiunxDeirfire or LUVxDierfirexShadow

I think there is a small chance of LUVxDeirfirexnn30 too, but i trust that nn30 won’t be able to keep up the charade if he is scum into the endgame. Which is a lot of trust that a player will screw up, but this town as a whole isn’t super dumb, and if nn30 is scum i think they catch on eventually. I’m sure you won’t let them forget will you shadow?

The reason I want Penguin over Deirfire is that i believe his lynch will be the easiest to convince people of, it will clear boring, and i generally find him to be the scummiest of the three lynches I want.

[Grendel]

I am a VT.

But nobody hammer before I get all my cases out.

It will probably take a couple days to get all the information together since I am tired out tonight, and I am busy tomorrow.

[Grendel]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Penguin Power

[Grendel]

My scum reading Shadow has less to do with you and more to do with his actions today. You pushing him adds a confusing wrinkle though.

I've got this big convoluted triangle bouncing around in my brain.

Shadow has been acting ridiculous all day - plenty of people have pointed this out. Not going to beat a dead horse. He feels scummy for this reason.

Beginning of the day you hopped onto my wagon (as the 3rd voter) with some flimsy reasoning and then wrote half a novel about why you hopped off. Felt weird to me - like you hopped on opportunistically and then hopped off when the lynch wasn't going to happen. You then move onto push Shadow.

Which makes me think you two can't be scum together.

Then there's the case on boring - which you have written at length that you simply don't agree with the reasons she's being scum read. This links the two of you in my eyes - it seems that, if you're scum, you're distracting from Boring by pushing Shadow.

Then Shadow is pushing me - which could also be a distraction from Boring.

Then there's Diefire who nobody has a handle on yet.

Truth is, I'd rate a 75% chance of the remaining scum being in these four. I just don't know how the puzzle fits together.

I will be honest; my vote on you at the start of the day was pretty lazy. I felt like had you pretty much pegged as scum off the wagon. I still had my strong town read on shadow, and while I wasn’t particularly keen on Penguin, I thought you were worse in comparison. I thought the likihood that you are scum was like… in the 90’s percentile. And if that doesn’t make me confidant, and a bit lazy, coming into today then I don’t know what would.

Hold on there buckaroo, you wanted my current read on you. It wasn’t like that “half a novel” was unprovoked. Also gross word usage, if you consider four paragraphs half a novel then… idk, just seems like a bad description. You wanted me to respond with a read. If I said, “I think you’re town”. Would that seriously been enough for you?

If I had done that then you would be accusing me of being too vague right now.

I just find that you being suspicious of Shadow when I was the one who first called him out, while keeping me as top scum is pretty bad imo. You being perfectly happy to see Me, boring, shadow, and Penguin lynched makes me wonder if we are all town, and you are scum. You have Dierfire out there too, but given that town has four lynches left. It comes across like a back pocket read. Since lynching us in order of who you find most scummy would be Me<Boring<PengiunPower<Shadow. That mean you would not actually have to see Deirfire lynched. So you sayyou can't read him, and say he is probably scum for it, but you aren't willing to lynch him over the other four right?

This is part of the reason I could see a LUVxDeirfirexnn30 scum team btw.

[Grendel]

Finished my Grendel reread. Next up is Dierfire. As always, I've tried to keep it short to keep it readable-ask if you think something needs more explanation.

I went into it with a pretty heavy scumlean on Grendel. I'm a lot more sold on it now, looking primarily for interactions with LUV. His opening game with LUV is incredibly awkward, in #215 and #232 he basically just calls LUV "lynch bait" as town and says he doesn't know how to read him. He had a big stretch Day 1 of encouraging people to think of who's scum with Gamma, and that it couldn't be LUV so they shouldn't really vote him as he's lynchbait when he's town.

The biggest red flag Day 1 is that he directs questions at LUV but then never actually follows up or interprets their answers:

@LUV Lets chat a bit:
How do you feel about the two leading wagons, as well as the individuals on them?
And if this were EoD which wagon would you join?
In this hypothetical situation where would you look next if the one you picked flipped scum? if they flipped town?

I want you to take more active stances. Your note taking, and your otherwise low key posting is not helping me get a hold on your alignment friend.

This was the last he had to say about LUV for the day.

Magically, day 2, he forgets LUV is in his words "lynchbait":

Luv looks worse in retrospect then I first thought.

This is exactly what he should have expected as town given his own meta. If it's comparatively worse to that bad baseline, I would at least expect further explanation given the emphasis Grendel has placed on it, but this never happens.

Before the Gamma wagon takes off:

Luv is all over the place and I'm having trouble pacing him. I definitely didn't like his hammer, or the unnatural transitions in his reads. I can't help feeling like it is all to easy though.
I might try to look into Gamma first. There is something he has not been doing that I have been expecting him to do for a while now. And that is bothering me.

After this he winds up hardshoving Gamma, then just kind of flops onto the LUV wagon with no explanation, the only reasoning is what I quoted and that was hundreds of posts before the flip.

Aside from his interactions with LUV, I think his approach to this game has been really suspicious in hindsight. He's prided himself on taking a very ambitious, intellectual approach to the game, but regularly stops at the most basic level of speculation. He said he looks forward to matching wits with us, and made ambitious statements like RQS working him but not "for the masses" and that he tries to pin the whole scumteam Day 1 collectively rather than focus individuals. Simultaneously, his night kill speculation on Maria's death was "boring wouldn't make that because it implicates her" despite that being exactly what you would expect a scum defense to be. Several of his stronger townreads have been for things as simplistic as "draws attention to themselves". It seems really strange to take pride in taking a "deeper" approach to the game yet settle for assuming the other players are incapable of more than one level of WIFOM.

With all of the above in mind, Grendel has shot up to #1 on my scum list. boring is a lot more likely to be town now. My reasoning for voting her has largely been based on PoE and not liking her attitude. The biggest thing that flags me to her being scum is Grendel's hesitance to vote her, and that says a lot about what I think about Grendel.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Grendel

I’m tempted to ignore all the people scum reading me for having ties to LUV. At this point I don’t think I can convince anybody of anything here. My only response is that I don’t keep back pocket reads as scum for various reason, one of which I already explained.

Personally, I think that your second to last paragraph marches dangerously close to a Politian’s rhetoric. Which I’m not a fan of. As for the issue between how I try to appear smarter then I really am… yeah I do that a lot in hopes of attracting a night kill early into the game. I try to come off as smart and clever so I can to make scum nervous. For the most part its all a show. I have moments where I’ve done some cool things, but generally speaking I’m not much of a intellectual lol.

I think is mainly an issue of my inability to multitask, my forgetfulness, and a tight schedule. If I had these I think I’d be a more formidable player.

I've town read people for simple reasons sure, what's so bad about that? I generally keep things open at day start, then start narrowing down onto who I think is the best lynch. Usually the mid point of the day is where I compete my narrowing down of the lynch pool, and move into making a hard stance that I push until either they are lynched or they aren't. This has become a more recent trend for me so I can't grantee many completed games here display this as factual. If I write off somebody as town for something one dimensional it doesn't mean I write them off from the rest of the game. When a new day rises I start over with many reads expect my strongest scum read (Whom I vote) and my strongest town read(s), then I precede to sort the people in the middle regardless of their place meant the day before. Once the game is nearing lylo, or is lylo, I go back and evaluate all the unconfirmed players as hard as I can.

RQS isn't a big factor there, its mainly a point to start talking, and most the reads I develop are lite ones. Did I really say "RQS doesn't work for the masses, but it does work for meeee"? If so then that came off as much more elitist then I meant for it too.

There are situation where their really isn't anything I can say that has been said. The town read around you is one of them. I could say that how hard you were on LUV is town like. I could say the aggressive way you address the game state is townie.

Is FE8 your favorite fire emblem? (I've been like- wanting to ask this question for ages)

I would like to hear your reaction to my recent posts because I was hunting for teams the whole time. I just thought it was funny that you brought that up as a point before I had a chance to reveal what I’ve been thinking about the past few days.

[Grendel]

You can't be hammered, you are not on l-1.

I'm just saying



these people look mighty trigger happy.

You think Penguin is town correct?

I don't recall what you originally said, but if you could quote that for me that be pretty cool.

[Grendel]

Something I meant to add to post 2603, but accidently posted without it.

There are situation where their really isn't anything I can say that has been said. The town read around you is one of them. I could say that how hard you were on LUV is town like. I could say the aggressive way you address the game state is town like. I could say that your desire to be hear is town like. I could say that the soundness your logic is town like. But to my knowledge these things have been addressed, and I haven't noticed anything independent of these I could add. SO what's the point? I'm already town reading you at the moment. I don't see why I need to distract myself away from players that are scummy for a player that is probably town.

If in some miracle I'm not lynched today, you are not killed at some point, and we end up nearing lylo together, then yes, I'll gladly reevaluate you then.

[Grendel]

Well, Pengiun is town.

With two asthics, one jail keeper, one cop, I was expecting one more strong role, or two middling roles to counter the two negative utilities. With only one sitting PR claim I'm thinking that Penguin has to be telling the truth. I'm a little disappointed because backup roles aren't a huge pro for town in my experience. But my set-up spec is altered by playing elsewhere. Whether or not Deputy is considered strong or middling, the lack of other claims reassures me that Penguin is truthful.

I'm thinking that town power isn't significant enough to even out the asthetics. Assuming that shadow is town, this means that scum power must be weak too. I'd say they shouldn't have anything. Yet, I'm guessing that they must have something because they targeted Gamma last night. Perhaps scum have an "x-shot strongman", or "x-shot role blocker", or a role stopper.

In other news I wasted like two hours earlier building a case to connect Penguin to LUV. Maybe I should have waited until all the claims rolled out before I started things.

Pre-edit

Hey Penguin. I know you think I'm scummy, but if you were to assume I were town. Do you think that Deirfire and nn30 are scummy, and have scum chemistry with LUV?

[Grendel]

Oh yeah, I should do this.

UNVOTE:

[Grendel]

@Penguin, Don't forget to answer this.

Hey Penguin. I know you think I'm scummy, but if you were to assume I were town. Do you think that Deirfire and nn30 are scummy, and have scum chemistry with LUV?

Alright. This is where I think we should be going.

VOTE: Deirfire

I'll provide a case tomorrow.

[Grendel]

Dier’s tone in general is hard to decider because unlike most players he is capable of treating mafia like a game. So for the most part it’s a little hard to tell what he is thinking beyond what he says openly. Or rather, looking onto his motivations is hard. While this is an issue I’m seeing nothing that really points toward a town!Dier this game, and would like to have him lynched. I also think the best way to divine his alignment would be by looking at what he says about individual players, then who he votes in response. Since there are occasions where he can clearly see a player as suspicious, acknowledge it, and then he votes somebody else instead. I will be paying close attention to this when I look as LUV and Dier together later, (I actually have most of this wrote out, but figured that I should make separate posts)

Things about Dierfire

Spoiler:

Only person who has both posted in thread and does not have an RVS vote.

Not the only one!

VOTE: Zoronos

I have had a recurring experience where scum vote somebody whose first posts don’t include a RVS vote. I think its because it’s a good way for scum to look like their advancing the game state with little to no effort.

Spoiler:

The rapid change between 221 (Grendel is either Town playing poorly or Mafia) and 242 (Grendel is Town) is also suspicious to me. While I agree that the last line of 241 sounds more like the kind of thing that Grendel would say as Town than as Mafia, the speed of reversal from the aggression in the earlier posts makes me believe that the aggression was feigned...

...

...I'm out of time for this interval. I'll back in a few hours to discuss why I'm reading implosion, Grendel, and nn30 as Town (I could tentatively add eagerSnake and Zoronos as well).

I originally felt that Dierfire may have been trying to buddy me here. What with his agreeing with my push on Penguin while telling me that I’m town based off of one phrase. In this and in a few posts after I felt like Dierfire was trying to get on my good side. It Could be paranoia though.

Spoiler:

I promise that I will continue to evaluate and update throughout the game. I like to think that I am not inordinately susceptible to confirmation bias, and I always read and try to understand the perspectives even of players that I find suspicious.

While this has largely been true throughout the game. I think that Dairfire has been much happier to sit on his vote on me with little introspection. He has responded to me when ever i brought something new to light, but it dosen’t seem like he is in any hurry to change his mind. E.I. I thought he would become more or less convinced of my alignment. Which is odd considering his reasoning for scum reading me was PoE exclusive until he looked at my interactions with LUV, (Why did he wait so long to do this btw?), and stuff Prism said.

Spoiler:

@Zoronos

So, for the sake of clarity Dierfire, your scum reads are Eager, Gamma, and Penguin? You are further of the opinion that Gamma and Penguin's set of disagreements around the competing trains was theater / scum distancing and that they could be scum together?
Am I understanding this correctly?

Yes, that's correct.
I'm not married to the idea that all three are Mafia together, but I have independent reasons to read each as Mafia, associative reasons to read PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald as partners, and no associative reasons to doubt either as partners for eagerSnake (in fact, perhaps some associative reasons to read Gamma Emerald as a likely partner for eagerSnake given the hops on and off the eagerSnake wagon).

For Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower, I think that their direct reads on each other looked like interactions between Mafia partners. I don't recall many disagreements between them about other players (implosion early in the game, in real time when Gamma Emerald voted for me, and indirectly after Gamma Emerald was considering moving back to eagerSnake); none looked especially difficult to coordinate or unlikely to occur to Mafia partners.

Here Dierfire groups all low hanging players together as a single scum team. It’s not something town wouldn’t do, but it is something that a scum could favor doing. It certainly doesn’t hurt Dier’s connections with LUV, since he doesn’t mention LUV here.

Spoiler:

@implosion

@dierfire: last think I see you say about boring is that you've read up on her but don't find anything really alignment indicative. What do you think of her after the eager+maria townflips, and/or why don't you agree with my points on her?

Obviously the death of MariaR is a minor point against boring (MariaR was voting for boring), but no more than a minor one.
I still don't see any evidence that she processed the conflict between eagerSnake and Shadow_step in a suspicious manner.

For your points:

You made the point (1068) that you don't see why boring would read eagerSnake as Town for the initial claim. I think that, from a probabilistic perspective, it makes more sense from a Town player claiming legitimately than from a Mafia player making a gamble (this is where I was after the initial claim). Whether that was a reason sufficient to justify the apparent strength of the read given by boring is a matter best answered by boring (I, for example, had eagerSnake as one of my weaker reads); I looked to 73 for an answer and it seemed that boring thought the claim sufficient that eagerSnake would either die or be held in suspicion for living. Therefore none of the reaction from boring to the second claim seemed out of place to me. In fact, of all the players that wanted to lynch eagerSnake after the second claim from Shadow_step, boring had the most prior evidence that her read on eagerSnake was primarily based on the first claim.

You also made the point that boring seemed artificially rather than genuinely unconcerned about the wagon forming on her. To assess this, I would look at her attempts to read those voting for her (if she is genuine that the wagon on her is in part a positive thing because it informs the alignments of players on the wagon, she should show evidence of trying to use that information). She had appropriate questions out to nn30 (1266, 1363, especially 1382) and Gamma Emerald (1365). She appears to have made some attempt to read you as well (1555, 1609) and to have revisited Gamma Emerald in 1610. I was hoping to have a deeper analysis from her with the results of those inquiries; I will prompt her directly.

You made the third point (1463) that boring had a "tepid" response (1453) to the suggestion from eagerSnake that we pass on the lynch. It seems clear to me that boring was demonstrating that better play from eagerSnake as Town would have been to push for lynching boring rather than no lynch at all (I don't read "are you suggesting that we give a free kill to the Mafia?" as a serious question but rather as a rhetorical one). I've no problem with the tenor of her response; I acknowledge your argument that it sounds "detached" but find this unpersuasive as a reason to vote for boring.

Another thing is that Dier had posts like this where he looked into boring, but wasn’t sold. I just think the transitions later when he voted boring later came off as forced given he spent so much time being skeptical of the reasons people scum read her. His logic that he doesn’t see anything pointing to town in boring, plus a VC later as enough to justify this move. Especially when he seemed to acknowledge that there were better reasons for going after Penguin or LUV in 1912.

Spoiler:

I'm getting close to committing to POE here.
I have more reasons, but I think that their claims are sufficient to have Shadow_step and Zoronos as Town.
I think that Prism is unlikely to be Mafia given the protracted conflict with Lil Uzi Vert. More powerful than his reasons for voting Lil Uzi Vert is the reaction that Lil Uzi Vert has to those reasons and the way that Prism follows up in conversation. In the quotes below, Prism is pursuing Lil Uzi Vert while Lil Uzi Vert appears to be evading Prism rather than engaging with him, which is an unusual pattern for Mafia partners.

(I delete the quotes because it was a lot to format) -Grendel-

A brief overview of the VC also supports Prism for sticking to Lil Uzi Vert throughout D2 (while I see that boring also does this, I don't trust this alone as proof that boring is Town, because she was nearly lynched D1 and might therefore have seen a need to create some distance).

Therefore, I'm strongly reading implosion, Zoronos, Shadow_step, and Prism as Town.

I next compare the wagon on boring in 1150 with that on PenguinPower in 383. PenguinPower receives votes from all other players outside my Town pool; boring receives a vote only from nn30. I would vote for boring before I would vote for PenguinPower.

I'm ambivalent about nn30; certainly the D1 VC were suspicious if boring is Town, but nn30 spends a lot of time on the wagons of players in my POE lynching pool and I don't find the Shadow_step wagon after his claim a likely place for two Mafia players to stack. At any rate I will say that nn30 should not be Mafia with boring (because nn30 and Lil Uzi Vert should not have been stacking on Shadow_step in 900 if eagerSnake is the main alternative to boring). I also may want to rule out a team of nn30 and PenguinPower based on the VC in 2079 (if nn30 were to vote for a partner, the one about to be lynched makes more sense).

So, I'd like to vote for Grendel or boring today.

VOTE: Grendel

His voting me while simultaneously saying that his only reason to scum read me is PoE implies that his read on me is weak (2277). Yet I don’t think he did much to further justify this read until much more recently today. I really don’t see Dier point out anything that looks like total Scum!Grendel to him when he deiced to vote me at the start of today, this makes me think that he knows I’m town. I want to stress that he did little to reinforce this read until others (me) asked for elaboration. If anything he thought me being jailed last night should be a point against me being mafia.

Spoiler:

@Grendel

I meant to ask this earlier, but do you know if our mod had knowledge of 1809?

I feel like most people are viewing this as a left felid theory, and I want something to reel them into the possibility that Shadow is scum. I am interested in any further considerations you have for me.

You said that your vote on me was PoE, have you found anything beyond that since?

I don't know whether the Mod had any knowledge of that game. On further consideration, though, I'm not sure that any was needed. If your theory is that Shadow_step has a Mafia Ascetic role, the Roleblocker function is not necessary to explain the decision to kill Gamma Emerald, right? In fact, I'd think that a Mafia team with an Ascetic Roleblocker (and one capable of killing and blocking by night according to the opening post) could get away with either action, whereas a Mafia team with an Ascetic Goon would be more likely to go after the claimed Cop.

Anyway, I've reviewed the Shadow_step again, and while to a certain degree I agree with the ideas that he has been playing in an unhelpful manner, I think that his claim is more likely to come from a Town Ascetic role than a Mafia Ascetic role. At this point, the only thing that would make me want to lynch Shadow_step is if we have a set of claims that supports the existence of a Mafia Ascetic role over a Town Ascetic role.

Although it's true that I base my read on you primarily on POE, I do also stand by the things that I said to nn30 in 2301 (that your treatment of Lil Uzi Vert reads like creating distance), and the more recent points by Prism (2545) also highlighted some ways in which your treatment of Lil Uzi Vert reads like a soft defense.

2559 Here Dierfire has expanded that he also scum reads me for my interactions with LUV. This does nothing to reassure me of Dier’s intents because those aren’t exactly new points by that point in time. Maybe I’m just setting the bar too high but Dier just doesn’t sound in any way insightful with his reasons to scum read me. His case on me is just verbatim with what Zoronos, and Prism have previously said.

[Grendel]

Plausible connections of Dier to LUV

Spoiler:

@Lil Uzi Vert
I think that you are mistaken to suggest that Shadow_step was "tunneling" you early in the game. I assume that you're referring to things like 125 and 166, and the fact that he left his RVS vote on you. I wouldn't read too much into those things; his lines of questioning suggest that his focus was much more strongly on eagerSnake after the claim (122, 168, 263, 280, 296).

I also think that it is incorrect to suggest that Shadow_step came up with "little to no information" by waiting, or that he had insufficient information to proceed. You may have missed this post:

I got townreads. I'm almost 100% sure that boring is town because of your interactions.

And that these shouldn't be bothered at night by PRs[zoronos, nn, grendel, boring]
Actually I'd even go as far as saying that DF is town. But that is a meta read so meh

Here Deirfire sees that his his buddy has set himself up to one v one Shadow, and is trying to disauade him. It wouldn’t work to tell LUV in the PT to back off shadow because LUV already started in the thread proper. (this assuming that Shadow isn’t the third member)

Spoiler:

I'd rather vote for Gamma Emerald than for PenguinPower or Lil Uzi Vert.
I'm still assessing whether I'd prefer to vote for Gamma Emerald than for boring.

I guess that for the purpose of clarity I'll put my vote on Gamma Emerald for now.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Votes Gamma instead of LUV.

Spoiler:

@Grendel
Oh hi Mark!
(Hilarious film)

@Lil Uzi Vert
Your vote for Zoronos is fairly bad. I could perhaps be persuaded that it's wise to defer a decision on your lynch today, but I'd need a good lynch option and Zoronos is not that.

This could be Dierfire publicly kicking LUV’s boat away from the dock. He tells LUV that his case on Zoronos being bad. Then leaves LUV there to be hammered. I do not think Dierfire has a record for bussing, at least i don’t recall him bussing any partners in the scum games i read. So this might be the closest that Dierfire comes to 1v1 distancing at EoD. Just as an over all I found this interaction to be weird, idk.

Spoiler:

Official Vote Count 1.26

Lynching

With 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

boring (5): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald, nn30
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Prism

V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)

This VC is where I'm starting.
So, eagerSnake is Town and 4/5 players on the boring wagon are Town. Although it's clear to me that my reads have not been superb in this game, I still think that Shadow_step is close to mechanistically clear by virtue of his claim.

If boring is Town, it's unlikely that the Mafia players would find a reason to avoid her wagon (makes nn30 more suspicious) and it makes PenguinPower the most suspicious player on the eagerSnake wagon. Lil Uzi Vert remains the most suspicious of the players on neither wagon.
If boring is Mafia, it makes nn30 less suspicious and probably increases the chances that we're looking at something like: boring, either PenguinPower or Grendel, and one of the players on neither wagon.

PenguinPower and Lil Uzi Vert are fairly suspicious regardless of whether boring is Town or Mafia. PenguinPower is more suspicious than Grendel, which makes him a better guess for a second Mafia player working with boring to oppose her wagon and a better guess for a single Mafia player on the eagerSnake wagon. Lil Uzi Vert is more suspicious than Zoronos and Prism, which makes him a good guess for Mafia unless all Mafia players are on the important wagons.

He mentions that LUV is suspicious but underplays it, and foucuses on the players on the main two wagons. Settling on boring a few posts later. Logically, it’d make sense for Dierfire to vote boring, given his null-scum read. Yet, consider the VC he uses lets him ignore LUV for other players as far as taking action goes. Namely Dier lines up boring/nn30, then he moves to Penguin/me if boring is scum, and ends with “somebody off the wagon” effectively putting LUV on the back burner. Even as he moves on to access LUV as the most likely of scum compared to Zoro, or Prism, his interest remains elsewhere. The reasoning behind voting boring is straight, but his priorities on the other players seems skewed away from LUV intentionally.

Spoiler:

I've read through both PenguinPower and Lil Uzi Vert again. I don't find the depth of analysis that I find in other players (Prism, Zoronos, Grendel). In general I'd characterize this as not making effort to solve the game, which is suspicious.
I suppose that, if I trusted my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel, I'd start lynching by POE and drop a hammer on Lil Uzi Vert, but I'm reluctant to do so for two reasons.
First, the wagon on Shadow_step after the claim yesterday does not strike me as the sort of place to find a high density of Mafia players (it would have been far easier to vote for eagerSnake). This means that Lil Uzi Vert (and nn30) should be less suspicious than the other players I'm having difficulty reading (boring, PenguinPower). As a parallel to that, if nn30 is less suspicious, it becomes difficult to see why no suspicious players are voting for boring in the quoted VC.
Second, I don't really trust my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel. I have reasons to read each as Town but I'm simply finding it too good to be true that I've narrowed the Mafia players down so much.

Official Vote Count 1.26

Lynching

With 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

boring (5): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald, nn30
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Prism

V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)

My vote is for boring. I haven't seen many good reasons to read her as Mafia, but I've seen none to read her as Town and I think that the VC shows, at a minimum, Mafia players avoiding her wagon.

VOTE: boring

He prefaces his post with, “i do find lil uzi vert suspect”, even saying that operating by PoE he would have him hammered. Instead of these he states of paranoia rising within his town reads, me, Zoronos, and Prism. Then justifies that LUV was less suspicious for pushing Shadow over Eager. Ending with a vote for boring. This post goes along with what i said about 1912, that Dier acknowledges that LUV is scummy, but intentionally diverts his attention away from LUV for somebody else, boring.

Spoiler:

@PenguinPower

You'll have to forgive me if I don't take your word for it. Regardless, I can't be the only person he buddied.

You actually seem to be, on his ISO read. At least, the only one I was able to discern. Please feel free to find another.

I'm surprised that boring didn't answer this, but I can find one--me! I've included several quotes below.

[spoiler=][spoiler=Quotes]

I am pretty wary of Penguin, especially after how hypocritical he's been about Grendal's RQS. That alone though isn't a strong enough for me to jump on this wagon although I agree with a lot of what Diefire presented.

Diefire - I liked every single one of his observations he's made so far and agree with almost all of them except the likelihood of Gamma and PP being a team. I'm not saying it's not a possibility, I just don't try to look for teams early on in the game and I like to focus on one person at a time once I feel 90% sure they're scum.

Why Dierfire? To me, he's trying really hard to sort out who he feels is suspicious and none of the cases he presented so far have read like scum trying to push a mislynch.

Anyway, I protected Dierfire Night 1. He was one of my strongest town reads and I thought scum would be threatened by the observations he made.

[/spoiler][/spoiler]

I don’t think any of the points raised here are specifically condemning of a relationship between Dier and LUV. The last one is the most unusual; it is weird that LUV would have claimed to have doctored his buddy. Mainly because LUV would be missing out on the opportunity of appealing to a townie. That's probably the only thing that directly contradicts DierxLUV there. THe stuff about LUV buddying you doesn't phase me because I played a game with LUV where I was scum, and I buddied my partner throughout the whole game. Even keeping him as a top tr for a while, so it wouldn't surprise me if LUV thought it was common practice for scum. Also some would say the fact that Dierfire brought this to every bodies attention himself is scummy. I personally find that sort of thing null.

[Grendel]

I'm ready for a hammer.

Man, Dier, good luck responding to all of this in kind. We're collectively piling it on here.

When I first saw you post in my pre edit menu thingy I was worried that you were gonna hit the same points that I was.

If that happened I would have been sad because it'd mean I'd wasted another evening lol.

[Grendel]

Shadowstep and Dier over Grendel?

I am going to speculate that this means you think Grendel is town?

I think Grendel's more likely town than either of them. If Penguin is out of the pool, then my scum list is Shadow>Dier>Grendel>nn30>Prism

Have you explained your read on Dier yet?

I don't recall when and if you did.

[Grendel]

@ Podoboq I switched my vote to Dier. Im not on the batman villain anymore.

[Grendel]

I'm still busier than usual and can't make the responses I want today but quick notes:

-nn30 is either a god or town. I'm an atheist, I think it's the latter.
-I haven't reread to see if PP is real but I believe Implosion's site meta. if he is, lynching red today should give us town auto which would be pretty sick. Only way I could see to avoid it is if scum has a strongman.
-I don't get most people's reaction to Grendel, the past few pages of his are all over the place and it reads as trying to dodge autoloss at any cost.

@Implosion: If Grendel flips red do you still consider me a possibility?

Heh, okay, you want "serous" Grendel to address you. Fine. Let me tell you what I see in your question to Implosion:

1)I see how strongly you tie being cleared to being on lynched scum.

2)I know that typically speaking scum try to exploit what they view as town.

3)I recall that you consider your scum game to be far stronger then you town game.

4)Statistically speaking the amount of people that view themselves to be better as scum are avid hard bussers. The percentile is 86% of the time going off a sample size of 96 players that submitted RQS answers in previous games that pertained to the subject. To get more specific 43% of people favored Scum, and of those who answered 86% of them bussed at least one buddy at some point in the same game the submitted their answers. Those who preferred town did bus too, but only 33%, which is significantly smaller then those who favored mafia.

5)You rode LUV to death harder then anybody and earlier then anybody...

6)I've decided to not give you a town read for your being on the LUV wagon, and I'd advise anybody reading this to do the same in future.

Instead of evaluating nn30 next as I had originally intended. I'll assume you are correct, and nn30 is confirmed town. Meaning that I will looking into my weakest town read. Whom I will not deny I have been letting slide through the game. I'm guessing you know who I'm talking about?

See you tomorrow.

[Grendel]

Hey conf!town nn30, tell me what you think of Prism.

Outside of him driving LUV into the ground what are your reasons for town reading him?

[Grendel]

To get more specific 43% of people favored Scum, and of those who answered 86% of them bussed at least one buddy at some point in the same game the submitted their answers.

I was walking away thinking how cool it was whippin out dem stats, but then I realized I made a dumb mistake.

Its 43 out of 96 people. Not 43 percent of people. A prefect half!

(Though it'll likely be ruined once this games ends )

[Grendel]

I also forgot to mention that the sample size of 96 is all people who rolled mafia/wolf.

I did not include results of people who rolled town for this.

I'm just adding this to prevent confusion.

(Is it obvious that this is the first time I've made use of the raw data I amassed in an actual game of mafia?)

[Grendel]

@Grendel - how much mafia do you play? Did you gather that info yourself?

I’ve played 15 games to completion on 4 different forums. I also used some information from 6 other games I wasn’t in where a player opened RQS with the question, “What is your preferred alignment?”. So I have 21 games worth of data at my disposal. The amount of slots totaling being 272, (which means I included repeats (players I played with before)).

I think my biggest break came from two very large games I took part in. One being a 48 player role madness ( the NPBR I previously mentioned), and a 35 player “normal”. Plus gleaning 76 slots from the 6 games I wasn’t in.

Some concessions I should make, since I decided to do calculating on the fly is I accidentally included 2 games of white flag mafia. Where mafia can’t bus. I need to remove these. I also shouldn’t have included 3 other games ran by an English professor I had. I was the only one with good forum mafia experience, and therefore my opinions on mafia theory had greater emphasis (bias) then other players who only had f2f experience, or who played (lol) Town of Salem. Which influenced other's play.

I’ve not ran the numbers with just the 16 left, but I’m confident that there is still a clear connection between bussing buddies, and a preference for playing scum.

[Grendel]

In other news Dier has been hammered.

I'd better get post a reads list before the mod comes back, and read the new info that cropped up since this morning... after?

[Grendel]

VOTE: DF

Fuck it

Shadow you dirty dog.

Goddamnit lol.

I'm so gullible.

@Boring - thanks... lol.

Ah, okay.

it makes sense now. I thought that was pretty out of the blue at first.

[Grendel]

General question.

Would who you lynch next according to what Dier had flipped?

Like if he flipped mafia then x would be the next to go,

or if he flipped town then y would be the next to go.

[Grendel]

I'll answer my own question at 2778 when I finish reading through Prism. Ideally today.

Hi we're murdering Dierfire or Grendel.
Preferably Grendel.

Your probably going to hove to do more then this to lynch me btw.

Flex dem' muscles Zoro.

[Grendel]

Welp I'm fighting a sinus infection right now, and my over all drive to play has dropped significantly.

I still think Dierfire needs to be lynched first (Has anybody even read my case on him?). Then moving on to the -Belgian waffle peddler-, nn30 as next priority.

Outside of those two I am wary of Prism because I think he has the ability to fake what he is doing as scum. At this point I still think he shouldn't get town cred for being on the LUV wagon. I also dislike how he accuses his scum reads of being "nonsensical", which is on the same level as "Either they're bad town or scum". I also think a lot of the rhetoric he uses to drum up support for his lynches is mischaracterizing, and misleading. Trouble is that idk if that's just how Prism likes to push his wagons, or if its actually something he prefers doing as scum. I also never finished rereading him because his posts are dense and I had to do lots of cross checking. I was null about a lot of it.

I'm not at the same level of support of town Boring that I once was. I still have a town lean, but I actually haven't been very found of her push on Shadow lately. Its mainly that with all of of town power on the table I think its significantly unlikey for scum to have power for both an asthetic, and something else. It occurs to me that with Gamma being the kill scum probably have something to counter the jail keeper. I still however think that boring is less likely to bus LUV, and that a lot reasons she has been scum read came from personality quirks, and fear votes. The later reason is also an additional reason the sr nn30 imo, and if nn30 flips scum, boring is a strong town read again.

Shadow is close to mechanically clear.

I consider everybody else mechanically clear, and completely off the table.

--Implosion, Zoronos, Penguin Power-- conftown

Shadow, Boring, Prism nn30, DierFire

[Grendel]

@Zoronos, Expect me to talk your ears off in the post game. You've made several, really, questionable plays this game that were bad and you should avoid in future. I also think that you shouldn't have the authority you do despite being conf!town. From my eyes Your push on me looked highly ego fueled. Also, for somebody telling another player they need humility, you yourself are no Job.

@boring and Dierfire it was nice to finally get to play with you both!

Good luck town. I think that you guys are in a good position to win.

I'm going to go back to bed now...

[Grendel]

My losing streak has lifted!

I'm busy right now, but I'd like to come back later to give my thoughts on the game.

Looking forward to reading the scum PT too.

[Grendel]

@Prism

I thought you played very well Prism.

The way you subtly diminished the possibility of Zoronos jailing Dierfire, and as a result, got Dierfire lynched was really impressive.

I think that you in general did a good job covering your bases, and your loss came more from outside influences then your actual play this game. I might go into detail later about some other points I thought you did well on.

You were also playing against Black Void at lylo. Based off of what I've seen and what BV has said, he is a scary strong player in lylo.

I came on the verge of replacing out in LyLo but I really wanted to see it through, and it would have really sucked Podoboq had I done so. I thought I could make it work anyway. I feel bad for boring/LUV that I didn't.

Please don't ever replace out of a game at its end state. Its not fair to the other players. And its a huge pain for the mod.

Even if your faction loses at least you can say you cared enough to not abandon it!

[Grendel]

I'm a little sad I wasn't mentioned more in the scum pt.

I guess I was never a real threat to scum this game. The only scum I had for sure was LUV, and it was the one scum read I never really pushed!

I did suspect Prism of being a dirty scum busser throughout much of D3, but I never really got around to elaborating on that thought. Outside of that I thought that Prism used lots of slimy rhetoric that... bothered me, but I didn't know weather I wanted to call him scum for it, or if I was just annoyed by that play style.

I had a few suspensions of boring, but I always dismissed them as they came.

[Grendel]

This game, for the record, it the first game where I have been mislynched.

In retrospect I still think that my lynch D3 was a weak choice, and I really should have been able to over throw it. I wish I decide to power through my sinus infection and try and deride my wagon. At the time I think I was focus on going after who I thought was scum was more important then defend myself.

I just kept assuming that it was clear I'm town, and that my wagon should fizzle out. Especially considering that Zoronos was doing jack squat to push my case. His whole case was associative tells, the assumption I'd bus, and that my play style is objectively "bad, and pro-scum". He never built off of that, and when I tied to engaged early in the day he cried AtE. He also spent more time pining outdated scum tells on my responses then caring what I said. It was at that point I recognized that talking to Zoronos would be pretty useless. Lastly, I still stand by what I said that Zoronos's push was personally fueled (ei he convinced himself that I was scum regardless anything I say).

Looking at my wagon:

Nn30 provided an in-depth read through where he came to the conclusion that I was a... moderate---weak town read, (I don't recall the spefic point he back tracked from this read, I just remember thinking it was gross and scummy)

It seemed like Dierfire only voted me for an apparent PoE for the entirety of the day. I thought that was really lazy from my PoV. Plus, I he talked to me like he knew I was town on multiple occasions.

Prism was scum, yet ironically, was the one to post the most through case on me.

Shadow compromise hammered.
-----------------------------------------------
There was nothing resembling a smoking gun on me, and none of the town players had what I could comfortably call good reasons to be on my wagon. Did I miss some vital information that made me conf!scum to you all in the thread proper?

Pre-edit

@Nn30 thanks though it was appernt in the scum pt that Prism wasn't aiming for that in the least.

@Prism Yes, it was mainly that you admonished me for my RQS, and said I made high quality posts. The reason I brought it up was B/C you made no effort to wk me in you D3 posting when I started coming under fire. Well actually I would have brought it up ether way. If you kept patting me on the head I likely would have scum read you, if you voiced reasonable suspicion then it you would have stayed null-town. In any case, I didn't view mentioning me as an after thought to be a "hard push" as you put it.

[Grendel]

Nn30 provided an in-depth read through where he came to the conclusion that I was a... moderate---weak town read, (I don't recall the spefic point he back tracked from this read, I just remember thinking it was gross and scummy)

Actually nn30 did present reasons for scum reading me beyond, "I'm sheeping Zoronos B/c he is the best player"

Though the points he raised weren't particularly original regarding LUV associative tells. And that was the crux of his case. :/

Also this:

This post is regarding Grendel.

First spoiler - this is Grendel explaining why he unvoted me earlier in the day. For the purposes of this exercise I want you to read it and determine, on the basis of this post alone, what Grendel's read on me was at that time: scum, null, or town? Then move onto the second spoiler.

Spoiler:

Nn30, Initially I thought your knee jerk reaction to my vote at the start of the day was pretty scummy. But I forgot that you’re new to the site, and it is more a sign of your newness here then straight up scum opportunistic play. Primarily because as scum I don’t think you’d unvote, then put all this effort into thinking about the game state as a whole. If you were scum I’d imagine that you would be perfectly happy to ride me to my death.

I had some serous paranoia about you over the course of night two, but I’m pretty over it now. It was how you went on that tangent at EoD yesterday about serial killers. As a rule of thumb I find players that are paranoid about third party roles with night kill capabilities to be a scum tell. Mainly since a SK would be a threat to scum during the night, and can be leashed by town if found out making them as dangers as a vigilante to the mafia. I guess it sounds silly in this context, but it’s a legitimate tell on the other site I play at... I hope Gamma isn’t taking notes from the dead thread.

There is also the matters of POE on the boring wagon when I came into today, but I’ve lost my initial confidence that boring is town due to associative to another player I think is scum now.

I also don’t think that effort necessarily equals alignment, but I do think that faking the effort you have throughout the game is reflective of somebody with a lot more experience the you seem to actually have. I briefly entertained the idea that you could have more experience then you let on. I recall you playing lots of different games of deception for fun in you submitted RQS answers. But all the tangents you hit throughout the game sound a lot more like somebody who is newer to the game, and in interested in how things work, then somebody experienced. Even the sk thing in retrospect.

Spoiler:

Here's what he has to say about me six days later.

Hey Penguin. I know you think I'm scummy, but if you were to assume I were town. Do you think that Deirfire and nn30 are scummy, and have scum chemistry with LUV?

He's very clearly scum reading me IMO. Does this match the read he had on me from the above spoiler quote, in your opinion?

Spoiler:

There's also this. These quotes are only a day apart. On the one hand, this could be his read evolving naturally over the course of time (my reads certainly have). I'm more inclined to believe it's him, as scum, pretending to have reads and the result is that he's inconsistent.

There is also the matters of POE on the boring wagon when I came into today, but I’ve lost my initial confidence that boring is town due to associative to another player I think is scum now.

2) What are your feelings on the Boring case?

2) I think that boring is town, but a lot of it is based off of gut, and notes I took yesterday. I don't think I can lynch her.

Was really bad reasoning b/c nn30 was acting like my reads shouldn't change over time. He even says, this is what Grendel said _six_ days later. A lot of things can change in 144 hours.

Also, if somebody thinks your scum, while saying otherwise. Wouldn't that imply that their scum read on you was genuine?

What motivation would scum have to say, "Sure I think you're town", while their actions toward you indicate otherwise?

If you arguing that scum are inconsistent. You should take note the level of priority the scum had put into this game to keep their plays consistent. Most the time an inconsistent opinion is only applicable to newbie scum, which I am not. Meanwhile town will always struggle with consistency because that isn't something they pay attention to the degree that scum do.

You'd also be arguing that scum would be faking their motivations, which is a hard thing to pull off as scum.

((Like nn30, you took something that could considered a town tell in some circles as scummy))

[Grendel]

@Grendel

It seemed like Dierfire only voted me for an apparent PoE for the entirety of the day. I thought that was really lazy from my PoV.

You're not wrong! It was a fairly lazy way to work on my part. I was not really an asset to the Town in this game--my apologies.

Well you helped get boring, and Luv lynched!

I wish we worked together more this game tbh. Maybe we would have realized we were both town.

[Grendel]

Consider how much I value meta, do you really think I'd soil my ability to self meta in future by using it as scum?

I think that this was my biggest regret this game.

It was a cheap move on my part. And I would have felt bad later if I got town cred for it.

Getting scum read for what would have been a largely useless bus, (if I was maf), really got under my skin. Being accused for something that I've always been against practicing made me even more aggravated.

I think my biggest weakness as a player is that I don't handle fast, acute, unexpected pressure well. I always have these bad knee jerk reactions that put me in an even worst position then what I started from.

[Grendel]

Oh man my first game in like a year.
Now I have to remember how to play.

I guess this draught was why Zoronos was using such outdated meta to gauge what was scummy and what was townie?

Really disappointed that Zoronos chose to site flake after being night killed. I legitimately wanted to talk about this game with him. While I think he played poorly this game, I wouldn't say he was a bad player in general. He seemed pretty experienced, competent, etc. If he wasn't so hung up on other's methods of approaching the game he might have done okay here. Or at least not scum read somebody for ignoring his advice on mafia theory lol.