Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

podoboq
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Post Post #2325  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:27 pm

Official Vote Count 3.05
LynchingWith 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

nn30 (3): Shadow_step, PenguinPower, Grendel
Grendel (2): Zoronos, Dierfire
boring (1): Prism
PenguinPower (1): boring

Not Voting (2): implosion, nn30


Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-14 13:30:00)
Currently looking for reviewers, a backup mod, and a flavor writer for a Magic: the Gathering flavored Large Theme. PM if interested.

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Post Post #2326  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:33 pm

@DeirFire

This situation where I'm arguing against the of existence of a role blocker is some serous irony right?

I guess its karma.

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Post Post #2327  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:34 pm

@Grendel - You just said that you hate bussing. There's no reason this couldn't be you lying.

I don't think scum were trying to set me up as a mis-lynch - unless that scum is you (since you brought it up).

I think it's more likely that it's coincidence that everyone else on that wagon has now flipped town.

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Post Post #2328  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:52 pm

In post 2322, boring wrote:
In post 2320, nn30 wrote:@Boring - thanks for the insight. Gun to your head - is Grendel scum?
He's not the towniest player in the game, but he's not in my bottom two. So probably not as things stand. (you don't have enough gym badges to stop me from turning a yes/no question into a full sentence)

@Grendel - what's your current feel on me? I know your vote is still on me. Have your opinions changed at all based on the last few pages?

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Post Post #2329  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:55 pm

In post 2324, Grendel wrote:I can even pull up the stats if you want them!


I would. This is my first normal.

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Post Post #2330  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:01 pm

Consider how much I value meta, do you really think I'd soil my ability to self meta in future by using it as scum?

I brought it up because of the two who voted before me.

Ugh, I really wish that Zoronos had held off on his case until I heard more of the other player's reads on me. At this point is hard to tell who went into today town reading me, and who went into today scum reading me, and I can't see the legitimacy of any bodies feelings on me.

PRe edit
nn30 wrote:
In post 2322, boring wrote:
In post 2320, nn30 wrote:@Boring - thanks for the insight. Gun to your head - is Grendel scum?
He's not the towniest player in the game, but he's not in my bottom two. So probably not as things stand. (you don't have enough gym badges to stop me from turning a yes/no question into a full sentence)

@Grendel - what's your current feel on me? I know your vote is still on me. Have your opinions changed at all based on the last few pages?


I'm trying to figure you out. I'll have to sleep on it.

PenguinPower wrote:
In post 2324, Grendel wrote:I can even pull up the stats if you want them!


I would. This is my first normal.

k hold on

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Post Post #2331  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:08 pm

Actually, wait, I have get off for tonight.

I just realized that its getting late and I haven't done my hw...

I'll get back to this tomarrow

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Post Post #2332  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:13 pm

I'll be waiting with bated breath.

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Post Post #2333  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:14 pm

In post 2330, Grendel wrote:Consider how much I value meta, do you really think I'd soil my ability to self meta in future by using it as scum?

I think this line of reasoning will paint you into a corner, since truth-tells are against this site's rules.

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Post Post #2334  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:29 pm

Alright. Broken record time.

I do not buy at all that LUV's scumflip implies boring-town.

I think the biggest point I want to make here is that either boring or nn is really REALLY likely scum. On day one, during the time when boring and eager were competing as the two main wagons, LUV heavily (at least, relative to his volume of posting) pushed the shadow-scum narrative. He eventually could easily have gone to either wagon, but chose to vote for eager. If we assume nn is town (not a safe assumption obviously but bear with it) then this seems just a bit strange:

In post 1467, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.36
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

eagerSnake (6): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Dierfire, Prism, Gamma Emerald
boring (4): MariaR, implosion, nn30, eagerSnake
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Grendel


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)

This is the last VC before LUV suddenly flips on eager and declares intent based on his no-lynch thing. The boring wagon has the nice property here of being all-town, with the possible exception of nn. So if nn is town I just don't see LUV going for this awkward turnaround hammer on eager unless he was trying to avoid bussing boring. In other words if nn is town, then the boring wagon was an all-town wagon that scum actively avoided by choosing to flip on eager rather than boring (again, he was pushing both of them as town up to this point).

On d2, I asked LUV for his thoughts on boring, to which he cited his rhetoric from d1 about not buying the case on her and saying he'd need more time to figure it out. Between (which vaguely implies he still has a townread on boring I think, and he doesn't say anything about scumreading her before it either) and (where he all but calls boring his strongest scumread!) he mentions her a couple times but none significantly. His play towards boring looks like freaking textbook scum who was afraid to bus or distance but decided that it would be good to distance before he went down when it seemed like there was a strong chance he was going to be the lynch.

As for boring hard-bussing LUV, it really was not in a way that I think lends her a lot of town credence; on d1 she consistently pushed eager and cited LUV as her fallback if we weren't voting in the CCs. Hardly an all-out bus on a partner like some people have described it, as far as I can tell... that's a perfectly typical scum d1 distance if she is scum. Vote a townie fos a buddy. It's pretty much the oldest trick in the book. By d2 LUV was already pretty set to have a lot of pressure on him. She gets some credit for pushing him but... well, she :
boring wrote:I think LUV has been lurky, beetlegeuse-ish, and unoriginal throughout the game. It's really easy to float to day 1 or day 2 in order to give your teammates something to bus, and that matches his behavior.

Bussing LUV there is not some crazy thing scum wouldn't do. He was lurking. He was being actively scummy with refusing to commit to either major wagon and then showing up at the last second and awkwardly declaring intent and hammering. Bussing LUV is absolutely sensible play from scum, especially scum who was already distancing from him... and again, distancing from a partner on d1 is standard play.

I really think though that the biggest thing is that I just find it hard to believe that all six of these names are town:
boring (5): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald, nn30

and I think nn's play today is pretty towny. Which I can justify separately.
VOTE: boring

My main candidates right now for other-scum are dier and grendel but I still, throughout this entire game, have seen no reason to townread boring that I've agreed with... and continuing mounting reasons to scumread her. I haven't changed my reads much over the course of the game because there have been relatively few incidents that felt like they were worthy of causing change (gamma acting townier, zoronos's claim). I'm going to have this mental block until we lynch boring or I see any reason at all to townread her. I'd love if someone can justify why her distancing from LUV was strong enough to have been unlikely to come from scum.

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Post Post #2335  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:37 pm

In post 2333, boring wrote:I think this line of reasoning will paint you into a corner, since truth-tells are against this site's rules.


Truth tells? Please expand on this.

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Post Post #2336  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:47 pm

In post 2319, Grendel wrote:I had this weird feeling creeping up on me yesterday that Prisum has been trying to pocket me this whole game.

But has made zero attempts at white knighting since I've come under fire. So I guess I was wrong?
In past days I've said virtually nothing about your alignment, the only times I did were that I liked your RVS questions and that I liked one specific post Day 2. The only reason I've ever given to townread you is based off Maria's death. In contrast, I've also pointed out that certain posts of yours were bad, and some of them worse yet replying to me without actually reading the original post (which suggests you weren't interested in them to begin with). You've been basically in the middle to bottom half of the game, and I've made it explicit that I intend to vote you today if I can't get boring. If boring is town, you are almost certainly scum by PoE. If boring is scum, you are still a very likely candidate for the partner.

You didn't even acknowledge repeated announcements for you as a potential alternative lynch, both today and yesterday. I'm not just not whiteknighting you, I'm straight up more on the offense. Between this and 2-3 other posts that appear unconcerned as to what I'm actually thinking, and boring pushing a PP lynch, you've definitely earned the second spot. I'll ISO you sometime tomorrow night.
In post 2279, nn30 wrote:p-edit - not even how early she wanted LUV on day one
I think it means nothing when it was halfhearted at best up until Day 2.
In post 2308, nn30 wrote:Boring (wanted LUV's booty for two days)
I really, really don't feel like this is the case. When was the last time you ISO'd it? I see no realistic pushing on LUV until boring was a 50/50 for the lynch.
In post 2286, boring wrote:In both these arguments, you're suggesting that I've completely changed my scum-play (and possibly suffered brain damage in the interim). Hard bussing from Day 1 is idiotic. Especially when there are so many bad town running around to provide easy counter wagons. So is killing the person most vocal against you, by the way. Not to mention it being crazy for a scum team to allow that kind of reckless killing pattern.
1. You barely went after LUV Day 1 despite mentioning him repeatedly 2. No, it's not.
In post 2286, boring wrote:Okay, assuming that was a typo, and not a senior moment, there's a difference between suspecting and knowing. There's no way that scum would risk a no-kill night. Unless the scum team can't math.
Actually, the math shows they can afford one no death without giving town an extra mislynch. It's not about "suspecting" there was a roleblocker either-you acknowledged in the post that it's stupid to jail Gamma but were apparently surprised he died.
In post 2286, boring wrote:Of course, your assumption that I'm scum seems to be based on the belief that I'm stupid, so maybe simple arithmetic is beyond me. :facepalm:
Can you quote examples of me basing my belief on you being scum as the belief that you're stupid? I've suggested nothing of the sort. This just entire post just reads as a poor ad hom defense more than anything else.
In post 2311, Zoronos wrote:I find scum tend to mark their scum buddies as 'neutral' and will constantly express mild to moderate suspicion on them *while not pushing them*. That is classic distancing. "Yeah A is scummy but let's all vote B" is scum play 101. So those things you flag as 'breadcrumbs' to me are potential setups to join the bus in case LUV goes down. Which is basically what happened yesterday. Those were specifically the things that led me to conclude he might be scum with LUV.
What you are describing is what boring did Day 1 with LUV.
In post 2308, nn30 wrote:Prism (he intentionally draws attention to himself for people to state reads on him as scum wouldn't do).
What's your basis for this? I do it because my reads are a lot more accurate when gained through 1 on 1 interaction, but this is precisely the thing you want to be said about you as mafia and I play as such accordingly. I don't mean to be arrogant but as scum I've got the behavioral quirks down pat. If you're going to townread me, it should be more on the basis of my votes and my reasoning/timing, and it should be done sooner rather than later. I think my reads on implosion prior to his confirmed status and now boring are the best chances to evaluate that.

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Post Post #2337  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:47 pm

@nn, she means trust tells.

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Post Post #2338  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:52 pm

Important enough to go into its own post: Still not convinced by any argument nn30 is scum. Defending your lynch opponent to towntell is an extremely effective scum tactic, but I rarely see anyone else do it. This might be confirmation bias speaking but I really don't see it coming from him.

And I never thought I'd say this but thank god for Implosion.

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Post Post #2339  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:56 pm

Oh man, I didn't even see that boring described her own play as "hard bussing from day one." I'd love to hear a justification of how listing him as your , saying you'd be for lynching him if you couldn't lynch eager, and then amounts to "hard bussing" because I can't see anything else on d1 that you said about him.

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Post Post #2340  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:29 pm

V/LA until Monday 10pm EST

I'll do my best to keep up from phone and occasional laptop, but no promises.

Quick thoughts:
-"I can't do X as scum or I'll ruin self meta" is truth telling and against site rules. Don't even try to sell me that line regardless, I've seen way too many "I'd never do X as scum" from scum players.
-Grendel's strikes me as a giant AtE and I put no stock in it one way or another.
-Grendel, if you want to convince me my read is wrong, show me a good non-meta case that's well sourced from events this game.

Other players that think Grendel is town:
Why? What am I getting wrong / missing here? Let's pow wow on this one. If I'm wrong, I want to understand where.

Prism:
My gut read has been that NN was town for a while now. I posted some reasons back on D1, but it boils down to that it looks to me like he's trying to solve the game, and that's towny.
If you want to convince me on boring, ignore the D1 stuff (I give no credit for that regardless, so you don't have to sell me on it) and convince me why she ignored Gamma in favor of LUV on D2.

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Post Post #2341  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:19 am

In post 2339, implosion wrote:Oh man, I didn't even see that boring described her own play as "hard bussing from day one." I'd love to hear a justification of how listing him as your , saying you'd be for lynching him if you couldn't lynch eager, and then amounts to "hard bussing" because I can't see anything else on d1 that you said about him.

I started suspecting him middle/end of day 1, and posted as much especially toward the end of the day. I'm not sure if you've noticed, but the end of a day isn't called a different day. You may have also noticed that I was V/LA half of day 1, and a leading wagon, so there was a bit of distractiin flying around.

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Post Post #2342  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:38 am

I forgot why I had Penguin as town when I read the LUV iso at night.
PP was the player he went all out attack on him and he was the Counter wagon to LUV on day 1. Both their interactions don't strike me as SvS. So definitely not in favor of lynching PP.
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Post Post #2343  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:44 am

In post 2295, nn30 wrote:
In post 2294, Shadow_step wrote:I've been giving boring a free pass so far because people seemed to be a soft target and people voting her because of her previous games as scum.
When I attacked LUV on day 1, boring had a "problem" with it.
I think one of [boring, prism] has to be scum because of LUV's readlist.


I think you're reading way too much into LUV's read list.


Seriously?

Do you disagree with my statement that he is more than likely to have put his buddies on different tiers rather than all of them on a single tier?

Consider this

In post 522, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Town: Diefire, Grendal, nn30, Zoro
Null: boring, Eager, Gamma, Maria, Prism
Scum - Penguin, Shadow


This is from my POV ofc, where do you think he places his buddies? Do you think it's 2/3 of the town tier? That would mean DF and Grendel are scum, cause you won't admit to being scum obviously lol.
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Post Post #2344  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:47 am

Implosion is town so that is out of the equation.

So one of [Diefire, Grendal, nn30]
and one of [boring, Prism]

I will ISO Prism and LUV together, I haven't looked at it and I don't get the Prism town reads atm.
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Post Post #2345  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:58 am

@boring
In post 2305, boring wrote:@Dierfire - I don't think there's any reason to doubt that both Implosion and Zoronos are town. Implosion is confirmed by a dead cop, and Zoronos is as good as confirmed CC'ing LUV.

Ha ha, yes, thank you, that was my point.

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Post Post #2346  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:58 am

@nn30
In post 2310, nn30 wrote:
In post 2070, Dierfire wrote:My vote is for boring. I haven't seen many good reasons to read her as Mafia, but I've seen none to read her as Town and I think that the VC shows, at a minimum, Mafia players avoiding her wagon.


@Dier - is the fact that Boring was so strongly interested in lynching LUV enough of a reason to town read her and get you to rethink this statement?


No, as I and others have said, I think that most of boring's interest in lynching Lil Uzi Vert comes after she herself picks up significant attention, at which point expressed interest in voting for a Mafia player becomes significantly weaker as evidence of Town alignment.

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Post Post #2347  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:58 am

@Grendel
In post 2324, Grendel wrote:Why do you think scum would be scared of stacking on Shadow when Shadow was never the one getting lynched D1?

You may have a point on NN30 not taking advantage of LUV. But I'm usually inclined to think that bussing scum is the leader of the pack. No offence to nn30's skill, but their are other players that would be better canidantes for scum leader then him.


I don't think that they'd be scared, really--I just don't see why they'd do it.
I'm not sure what this is about nn30 taking advantage of Lil Uzi Vert or being a leader to the team--I don't think that either of those are points that I made. Could you clarify?

In post 2326, Grendel wrote:@DeirFire

This situation where I'm arguing against the of existence of a role blocker is some serous irony right?

I guess its karma.


Ha ha, that's true! For what it's worth, I do find that the claimed action by Zoronos makes you more likely to be Town than otherwise; I just think that the quality of that evidence is weaker than what I'm using for my POE given the potential presence of a Roleblocker and the possibility that another player would have made the kill.

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Post Post #2348  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:58 am

@Shadow_step
In post 2344, Shadow_step wrote:I will ISO Prism and LUV together, I haven't looked at it and I don't get the Prism town reads atm.


I'd like to call your attention to the interactions quoted in my as a good place to start.

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Post Post #2349  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:03 am

Scum either had a 1 shot RB and used it night 1 or have a odd night RB or don't have an RB at all.
Apart from what Implosion has already said, Zoro is a better day player than GE so Rbing Zoro while killing GE instead of doing vice versa makes no sense.
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