Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

podoboq
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Post Post #2350  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:04 am

Official Vote Count 3.06
LynchingWith 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

nn30 (3): Shadow_step, PenguinPower, Grendel
Grendel (2): Zoronos, Dierfire
boring (2): Prism, implosion
PenguinPower (1): boring

Not Voting (1): nn30

V/LA: Zoronos


Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-14 13:30:00)
Last edited by podoboq on Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
eagerSnake - "Fwiw mod steals pagetops while driving. Still think they wouldn't put in 2 people with ascetic?"

Shadow_step
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Post Post #2351  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:06 am

In post 0, podoboq wrote:The mafia team has day and night chat, and can use multiple abilities per night.


We have a flipped goon, so the other two are likely to be Mafia PRs?
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Dierfire
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Post Post #2352  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:23 am

The presence of multiple Town Ascetic roles might suggest some Mafia investigative role (against which they have some positive utility for Town).

Shadow_step
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Post Post #2353  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:25 am

In post 2344, Shadow_step wrote:So one of [Diefire, Grendal, nn30]
and one of [boring, Prism]


I want everyone's opinion on this, out of these 5 would have made the kill last night and why?
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nn30
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Post Post #2354  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:12 am

In post 2344, Shadow_step wrote:Implosion is town so that is out of the equation.

So one of [Diefire, Grendal, nn30]
and one of [boring, Prism]

I will ISO Prism and LUV together, I haven't looked at it and I don't get the Prism town reads atm.


You're right - the logic of LUV putting his partners on differing tiers makes sense.

At the time I disagreed because, in my mind, Boring was cleared by her insistence of a LUV lynch and I have a powerful town read on Prism. Based on that your one of [boring, prism] argument had to be wrong.

Now that Implosion & Prism have picked apart the Boring v. LUV play, I'm more inclined to think you're on the right path.

@Shadow - a couple questions for you.

1) Will you point to the LUV v. Penguin interactions that you are referring to? I have PP as my top scum read right now and, if I'm wrong, I'd like to know why.

2) Other than myself (since you're obviously already voting for me) who is scummiest among [Grendel, Dierfire, Zoronos]?

nn30
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Post Post #2355  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:14 am

In post 2353, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 2344, Shadow_step wrote:So one of [Diefire, Grendal, nn30]
and one of [boring, Prism]


I want everyone's opinion on this, out of these 5 would have made the kill last night and why?


Not Grendal (jailed last night)

Not Prism. He's too towny.

Diefire or Boring.

Probs Boring - the recent Implosion / Prism posts have pushed my thoughts on her back towards scummy. I don't have a reason to scum (or town) read Diefire and I know my own alignment.

nn30
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Post Post #2356  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:16 am

In post 2349, Shadow_step wrote:m


I didn't consider the role block on Zoro in my previous post.

This makes Grendal a possibility for the kill as well. Not sure about likelihoods between him and Boring though.

Dierfire
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Post Post #2357  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:18 am

@Shadow_step
I'm uncertain what assumptions I'm supposed to be using.

If your question is, out of all of those players, which one was most likely to have made the kill, my answer will be boring. Players more likely to be Mafia (boring and Grendel) are more likely to make kills, and Grendel having been jailed weighs slightly against him because it requires the Mafia to have a power that counters that action and to have that power in the correct place (doesn't work if Grendel's partner is Ascetic, for example, or if Grendel is a Rolestopper unless self-targeting is allowed, or if Grendel is a Roleblocker who also made the kill unless the Roleblocker takes priority over the Jailkeeper).

If your question is, which of those would be most likely to make the kill assuming Mafia alignment, then I'm looking for a player least likely to be blocked by Zoronos (if the Mafia has the power to block Zoronos then I can't draw a meaningful conclusion about which player would have made the kill). In that case, boring isn't a bad guess (Zoronos was apologizing to boring at the end of D2 and so might have been thought unlikely to block boring), but Zoronos didn't seem openly suspicious of Prism or nn30 either.

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Post Post #2358  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:31 am

Grendel could also be strongman.
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nn30
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Post Post #2359  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:35 am

Grendel could also be ascetic.

Apparently we have 2 town ascetic's. Why not a mafia ascetic?

Dierfire
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Post Post #2360  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:40 am

In post 2358, Shadow_step wrote:Grendel could also be strongman.

This is true. However, Grendel's partner could also have the Strongman role. Grendel having been jailed eliminates all scenarios in which Grendel is Mafia and could not have circumvented the block, however unlikely, while leaving possible the equivalent scenarios in which the partner is Mafia and could not have circumvented the block.

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Post Post #2361  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:43 am

Equivalently:

Assume that we were guaranteed that one Mafia player has the Strongman role. Zoronos claims to have jailed Grendel. This means that Grendel is either Town or the Strongman. Other players have three options: Town, Strongman, some Mafia role other than Strongman.

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Post Post #2362  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:48 am

In post 2359, nn30 wrote:Grendel could also be ascetic.

Apparently we have 2 town ascetic's. Why not a mafia ascetic?


A mafia ascetic can't kill a player protected by the JK. Strongman seems a decent counter to that.
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nn30
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Post Post #2363  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:08 pm

I thought a mafia ascetic would be immune to jailing though. Which makes Grendel a possible killer.

Or am I understanding that rule wrong?

nn30
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Post Post #2364  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:08 pm

Also @Shadow please answer my questions from above. I feel like you're about to ignore them >.>

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Post Post #2365  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:09 pm

Speculating about scum roles and who would have made the kill is mostly useless. Too much guesswork; in practice it's just a crapshoot.

The amount of scum power depends on the amount and kind of town power; even then guesswork is hard because if we don't have that much power they might not have any at all. it's useless to speculate on podoboq's post 0, it's something that's required to be put in all normals.

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Post Post #2366  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 1:51 pm

In post 2312, boring wrote:@nn30 - I appreciate that your mind changed throughout the process. Some thoughts: a) if Grendel flips red, you've put your head on the chopping block


@Prism / Implosion - Another wrinkle.

If your theory is correct, this could be Boring teeing up my mislynch after Grendel flips red.

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Post Post #2367  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:05 pm

Yeah I'm okay with this.

VOTE: boring

PenguinPower
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Post Post #2368  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:25 pm

Hmm...

UNVOTE: nn30

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Post Post #2369  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:39 pm

What caused the change of opinion Penguin?

PenguinPower
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Post Post #2370  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:48 pm

Because I agree with and Snake.

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Post Post #2371  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:49 pm

Snake hasn't said anything in ages. Whaddya mean by that?

Grendel
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Post Post #2372  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:17 pm

I was going to do original research, but I’ll just copy Hoopla’s research in mini normal 1809. She was in a similar situation that I am now. Where I was scum reading her, like Zoronos is scum reading me now. She was trying to convince me against the existence of a role blocker, though the order of events was different lol. At that point I was on mask, who was scum.
lol idk how to properly quote from a locked thread.
In post 1007, Grendel wrote:
Wouldn't scum have a role blocker since town had a jailkeeper? Maybe I'm used to different setups, but having a jail keeper makes mafia role blocker a confirmed role in the game right?
Assuming Mask is a vig, and scum has a role blocker then Mask is not confirmable.
I'm still inclined to think he is scum anyways tho.

Post #1008 (isolation #76) » Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:18 pm
Because having two blocking roles in one setup opens the door to paradoxes and messier night interactions, as such, mods tend to avoid doing it. I just did a quick scan of 13p Mini Normals with Jailkeepers. There were 30 games with a town jailkeeper and only four of those had scum RB's too, so I think it's highly likely that Masq will get a shot off tonight if he indeed has one.

If you think he is scum, fine, but lets lynch him tomorrow after he's had a chance to confirm himself tonight. Massclaim tomorrow might also narrow the game down enough to be able to tell whether his claim fits in the possible setup.

Except you can change that ratio too 31:5 since we did have a role blocker, and a jail keeper that game. The mod, Deirfire, used an Ascetic Role blocker to prevent priority clashes between the two roles...

Despite my initial stance, I actually do think that there is a role blocker now, and I think I know who this scum lord is too.

In post 2330, Grendel wrote:
nn30 wrote:
In post 2322, boring wrote:
In post 2320, nn30 wrote:@Boring - thanks for the insight. Gun to your head - is Grendel scum?
He's not the towniest player in the game, but he's not in my bottom two. So probably not as things stand. (you don't have enough gym badges to stop me from turning a yes/no question into a full sentence)

@Grendel - what's your current feel on me? I know your vote is still on me. Have your opinions changed at all based on the last few pages?


I'm trying to figure you out. I'll have to sleep on it.

Nn30, Initially I thought your knee jerk reaction to my vote at the start of the day was pretty scummy. But I forgot that you’re new to the site, and it is more a sign of your newness here then straight up scum opportunistic play. Primarily because as scum I don’t think you’d unvote, then put all this effort into thinking about the game state as a whole. If you were scum I’d imagine that you would be perfectly happy to ride me to my death.

I had some serous paranoia about you over the course of night two, but I’m pretty over it now. It was how you went on that tangent at EoD yesterday about serial killers. As a rule of thumb I find players that are paranoid about third party roles with night kill capabilities to be a scum tell. Mainly since a SK would be a threat to scum during the night, and can be leashed by town if found out making them as dangers as a vigilante to the mafia. I guess it sounds silly in this context, but it’s a legitimate tell on the other site I play at... I hope Gamma isn’t taking notes from the dead thread.

There is also the matters of POE on the boring wagon when I came into today, but I’ve lost my initial confidence that boring is town due to associative to another player I think is scum now.

I also don’t think that effort necessarily equals alignment, but I do think that faking the effort you have throughout the game is reflective of somebody with a lot more experience the you seem to actually have. I briefly entertained the idea that you could have more experience then you let on. I recall you playing lots of different games of deception for fun in you submitted RQS answers. But all the tangents you hit throughout the game sound a lot more like somebody who is newer to the game, and in interested in how things work, then somebody experienced. Even the sk thing in retrospect.

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Post Post #2373  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:19 pm

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Shadow step

I'll have to come back later to give my case.

Grendel
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Post Post #2374  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:24 pm

In post 2333, boring wrote:
In post 2330, Grendel wrote:Consider how much I value meta, do you really think I'd soil my ability to self meta in future by using it as scum?

I think this line of reasoning will paint you into a corner, since truth-tells are against this site's rules.


My slot isn’t compromised because people will have to take my word for it. I'm not posting hard irrefutable evidence like a role pm, or something. Even If I were to quote all the times I talked crap about bussing as a strategy thats still only as good as my ethos.

If you think I’m town why are you fishing for a mod-kill? :/

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