Mini Normal #1838 Mafia PT

[boring]

If you're willing to lynch PP, even a smidge, I might be able to swing his wagon. Can't tell yet.

Go with your gut, ultimately, though, since you'll be alone at the end one way or another.

It's just that I see him being potentially hard to lynch as time goes on for some reason.

[Prism]

I've left myself options, I've got a lot of time after 6 PM EST tomorrow so I should be able to put out some quality content.

This game is hard as fuck.

At least we're rolling in $$$ scum cash money from not killing Shadow.

[Prism]

Man, I really, REALLY want to claim BP but at this point I am scared to death of Grendel being it. There's one in this game, and it's Grendel, I can feel it.

[boring]

Okay, well Grendel is clearly going to let me buddy him, and nn30 has left a small opening. I'm going to try to take both, that'll line up some easier MLs for you, but it also means slowly turning on Shadow. Shadow has almost no credibility, so his only use is his vote. Besides, he'll turn on you eventually. Buddying/mirroring implosion has been a smart move on your part. He has just the right amount of ego apparently take it as natural. Just be careful to disagree in a few minor points here and there just in case someone else notices.

If we don't get a massclaim today, I'll Neo Grendel tonight (if I live through the day). But I'm doubting the existence of a BP.

What do you think of Motion Detector?

I agree the game is hard, but it's really fun. Besides, this is the only way we're going to improve, and sweet onion chutney, I could use some improvement.

[boring]

If you're toward the bottom of the massclaim list, you can just wait and see what Grendel says.

[Prism]

Was flopping to Grendel a mistake?

Possibly.

Is it better than Zoronos getting a jail with a solo scum in play?

Yes.

[Prism]

And yeah you're right the game is a lot of fun, I never really mind if it ends in a loss, especially if it winds up being very close. It's fun to see your limits.

You've played this really well in recent days by the way so great job!

That said, this game is a mountain right now that I'm eventually going to have to climb solo. It's not a sprint. It's a long, arduous journey uphill with dangerous heights and tricky navigations galore. There are checkpoints along the way and the climb gets increasingly harder after each, and if my ego gets in the way or I get complacent, or do the equivalent of tossing a bag of food off the side by letting Zoro have his jail, my chance of scaling it goes down significantly.

It's a mountain all right, and I'm taking it one rock at a time.

[boring]

How handy would it be for me to be reasonably townread tomorrow?

Because no one is going to listen to me about Grendel, but the town cred (I assume) I'll get for refusing to hop on him as my counterwagon might really be worth it.

If we're desperate, I can just hammer him at L-1, and get myself powerlynched tomorrow.

[boring]

Okay, I'm going to claim VT when asked, unless you've got a better idea.

[Prism]

I'm likely going to claim VT as well, I'm very wary of town having another non-VT role of some sort, so the BP claim is still up for grabs if you want it, it's just mildly risky. Even/Odd Night Commuter is also a good claim (Though I doubt there's incentive to out which as town). We can't afford for me to get trapped in a cc with anyone here.

I also wouldn't quickhammer ever at this juncture even if it wins a mislynch. You're not as closed to being lynched, if you hammer it confirms that you're confident in your partner getting a back to back mislynch. We don't want that.

[Prism]

Shadow didn't put himself in the list. He might be more than just ascetic. I townread him so I don't want to point it out. Can you do it?

[Prism]

Oh god a deputy too.

Why, Podoboq, why?

[Prism]

Me claiming VT over BP is likely a mistake but too late now. I probably could have gotten a mislynch on PP with it and leave you with one more to go.

The amount of town power in this is pretty insane, the cop/deputy+jailkeeper combo is ridiculous. We kill Zoronos tonight imo, in an ideal world PP investigates you tonight and you 1v1 tomorrow. If he guilties me at least we probably get a mislynch out of it. We don't want anymore innocents. Killing PP and having you lynched tomorrow gives them a report anyway, so we might as well try and get something out of it.

[boring]

I'm not sure I'm following what you're wanting.

Anyway, I don't see how we'd have much choice but to kill penguin first. That is, if I live today. Every day that he gets another conf. town or another conf. scum is another disadvantage. Zoronos at least likes us both, and so it less likely to target us for jailkeeping. Then again, what do you think are the chances that he'd keep penguin tonight?

I feel like daytalk really isn't that huge of an advantage to be having this much stacked against us, but I like a challenge!

[Prism]

Anyway, I don't see how we'd have much choice but to kill penguin first. That is, if I live today. Every day that he gets another conf. town or another conf. scum is another disadvantage. Zoronos at least likes us both, and so it less likely to target us for jailkeeping. Then again, what do you think are the chances that he'd keep penguin tonight?

I don't think jailing PP is the move as scum here. I'm going to assume we get Grendel lynched today.

If we kill PP tonight the game is left with the following state going into Day 4:

Unclears:
-Prism
-boring
-Dierfire
-nn30
-Shadow

Clears:
-Zoronos
-Implosion

Town has a mislynch. If either of us gets lynched, town gets a report via Zoronos jailkeep. That means we'd have to 1. Not get hit by the Zoronos jailkeep 2. Lynch both of Shadow+whichever of nn30/Dierfire he doesn't jail. Post Grendel flip I think it's highly likely that one of us gets lynched over anyone else, because it's implosion's town and he's out for your blood. I get the impression he has the feeling that I'm scum but can't really seem to put a handle on why. Either way, I doubt we're getting a mislynch in this hypothetical day.

If we kill Zoronos tonight instead of PP, the state of the game is:

Unclears:
-Prism
-boring
-Dierfire
-PP
-nn30
-Shadow

Clears:
-Implosion
-Possibly PP's innocent.

Here, PP will either clear one of nn30/Dierfire, or guilty one of us. If he guilties one of us, we can 1v1 him and try to get a mislynch, and town doesn't get an extra clear. If he outs an innocent on PP/Dierfire, that was probably happening anyway, but we still have the chance of mislynching PP. ie. We have to lynch 2/3 of PP/notreport/Shadow rather than 2/2 of notreport/Shadow.

On the flipside, the jailclear can be justified by claiming there's a mafia strongman, so town might not consider it a clear. It's a really tough choice tonight.

[Prism]

I don't think jailing PP is the move as Zoro here

EBWOP

[boring]

Okay

[boring]

We have 3 conf. town.

I've stated unwillingness to lynch nn30 and Grendel.

You've stated unwillingness to lynch nn30 and shadow (correct me if that was wrong).

That leaves Dierfire as someone we can both hop on. That is, if you weren't on eager. I'm too lazy to check.

I'm trying to make a believable transition from tunnelling to believing PP. I regret not neo-ing him last night. These curveballs are killing me. We could have hopped off LUV onto Gamma, but he was cop. Could have hopped onto Zoro but he CC'd LUV. Could have at least had a believable counterwagon to the Grendel/Dier/nn30 mislynch, but PP is deputy.

Gaaaah!

[Prism]

I really, REALLY should have claimed BP here.

[Prism]

Implosion scumreading me has been something I've been expecting all day, I just didn't think he could really justify it intrinsically and thus kept it quiet. I was right, but now he's going to 3 way guaranteed, and he's verbalized it and confirmed my intuition, and that's not a good thing.

[boring]

We have too many conf. town to manage, and I think, we've already lost. Without any reads or play at all, we've a 4/5 chance of losing.

I don't regret bussing LUV because he was going to be lynched today anyway, and I believe our lack of proactivity would have hurt us further. This way, he helped us gain at least a few town points with a few players.

However, I do wish that we had a third scum right about now.

I also think we have to subtly rally a bit because I don't think they're going to fall for much scum theater. I'm still totally willing to go down, but I question how many points you'll get for taking me out. If we can both breathe the air in D5, I think we can get to the other side of this hump. That's just two more days of ML's. Then you can swing the last one alone.

*crossing fingers*

[boring]

Do you think you could believably vote for Dierfire? They seem to think that scum are going to spread out on every vote, so there's no huge reason to actually spread out. I'd be happy to take slot #4 or #5 on his wagon. I think we should let someone else be #3, since people have already mentioned that scumtell in this game.

[boring]

We're about to lynch Dierfire. Any ML is a good ML at this point.

Shadow is begging for a policy-not-policy lynch. He would be such a liability at LYLO, I can't see any of our remaining stragglers wanting him there.

Man, I hope Zoronos doesn't Keep PP tonight.

[boring]

... and right on cue, Shadow fake hammers. Does he really think people are going to fall for that? Again? I guess it could be a childish attempt to get people to re-engage him.

[Prism]

Sorry I've been a ghost the past few days. I think the Dierfire lynch is a good thing but I don't want to be seen on it. I don't think my most recent post pushing Grendel is too risky, him getting lynched over DF is probably a good thing.