Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over


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Post Post #2525 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:39 pm

Post by podoboq »

Official Vote Count 3.12
LynchingWith 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

boring
(3): Prism, implosion, PenguinPoqer
Grendel
(2): Zoronos, Dierfire
nn30
(1): Shadow_step
PenguinPower
(1): boring
Shadow_step
(1): Grendel

Not Voting
(1): nn30

V/LA
: Zoronos


Deadline
: (expired on 2016-11-14 13:30:00)
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Post Post #2526 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:02 pm

Post by Shadow_step »

Shadow_step wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:21 amYou call me scum and then call me conf biadsed, implying I'm town. What is it, I can't be both.
If its conf bias you certainly aren't making it easy for yourself by posting things like that.


Calls me out for dodging questions. Dodges questions himself :evil:
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Post Post #2527 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:04 pm

Post by Grendel »

Grendel wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:36 pmNN30... Why am I duking it out with boring for your most scummiest read, meanwhile you seem the most skeptical of Shadow's slot when I started pushing shadow more then anybody else has since D1?

Before my push you thought he was town yea?


I mean, I haven't gone back to all your pushes to hard confirm this, but I recall you chiming in whenever the tide of suspicion changed throughout the game, and that's bugging me out. Like, that has some viable scum motivation behind it...

Also nn30, what
are
you current reasons for scum reading me?
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Post Post #2528 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:09 pm

Post by Shadow_step »

Zoronos wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:59 pmThis discussion is distracting from actually finding scum. It should stop, and likely do so now.
My scummiess meter on Shadow_step has increased markedly. The things that Implosion pointed out in are not only super aggravating, but also many of them are scum sided (specifically calling yourself conf town while not actually confirmed anything).
The summary of them all is "You are playing both anti-cooperatively, and are actively breaking down cooperation amongst other players." That's an actively pro-scum strategy.

I think at the very least you need to eat some humble pie. In the mean time, I think the rest of us should have a larger discussion on whether or not the wide town read based on D1 play is misguided / overridden by his behavior since then.

However, my best scum read remains Grendel, so I think people should either vote that way, make a case for Grendel being town, or make a more convincing argument for Beatrix being scum (because the bus vote stuff on LUV I don't find convincing, given that there were a number of opportunities for her to vote opportunistically on town targets and instead maintained her vote on a scum. So if she was busing, she was super dedicated to the bus and is probably bad for busing on D2 when she could have lynched town and then bus'ed on D3).


It's not a strategy, its how I play. I'm apathetic, and I still find scum and Lynch them.

The MC is actually going to help us POE, further to reduce the Lynch pool. As is scum will probably kill you and implosion in whatever order so there is no downside to not mass claiming.
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"I'm mightily impressed by Shadow's ability to find town PR's, by the way. He was the one directing the first two nightkills." ~Michel
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Post Post #2529 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:50 pm

Post by Shadow_step »

nn30 wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:14 amYour conf bias goggles
really
need to come off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

Yes I'm calling myself stupid for having them on the same level.


So @Implosion and anyone else who bothers reading the thread. Don't you think this is a scum slip?
Isn't this nn scum calling me conf biased because he knows I'm town?
If its not, why?
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"I'm mightily impressed by Shadow's ability to find town PR's, by the way. He was the one directing the first two nightkills." ~Michel
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Post Post #2530 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:52 pm

Post by Zoronos »

Grendel wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:20 pmRight, lets do it:
Penguin
Deirfire
Nn30
Prism
Boring
Grendel
Implosion
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
@Zoronos, I would love to hear a more developed case against me frankly.

-Optimal bussing position, not moved by LUV’s original claim
-My reaction to your vote, and the scum tells you associated with it.
-Using bad play to hide scummy intent

Is there anything else here you want to add?

@ALL

Call me egotistical, but I’d like a
novel
written about my escapades if I’m gonna be mislynched. Can people who are scum reading me detail why they are scum reading me currently?

Grendel's ordering putting himself at the very end of the reveal list is 100% lol worthy.

I'll post later maybe once I get to a computer and am maybe sober.
Which may be tomorrow we'll see.
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Post Post #2531 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:53 pm

Post by Zoronos »

Oh god I hit quote whatever I hate editing quotes on iPad anyway.
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Post Post #2532 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:56 pm

Post by Shadow_step »

Grendel wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:20 pmRight, lets do it:
Penguin
Deirfire
Nn30
Prism
Boring
Grendel
Implosion
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
@Zoronos, I would love to hear a more developed case against me frankly.

-Optimal bussing position, not moved by LUV’s original claim
-My reaction to your vote, and the scum tells you associated with it.
-Using bad play to hide scummy intent

Is there anything else here you want to add?

@ALL

Call me egotistical, but I’d like a
novel
written about my escapades if I’m gonna be mislynched. Can people who are scum reading me detail why they are scum reading me currently?


Holy shit list makes no sense.
So your top 2 candidates for scum and PP and I?
So in a world where I am buddies with PP and LUV. On day 1 I make a crazy push for LUV head, then I start a PP wagon? Then I fake hammer him? LUV has both me and PP as his scum reads. LUV busses me and distances from Penguin.
All this distancing and bussing on day 1, are you for real?
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"I'm mightily impressed by Shadow's ability to find town PR's, by the way. He was the one directing the first two nightkills." ~Michel
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Post Post #2533 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:58 pm

Post by nn30 »

[quote="In post 2524, Grendel"][/quote]

My scum reading Shadow has less to do with you and more to do with his actions today. You pushing him adds a confusing wrinkle though.

I've got this big convoluted triangle bouncing around in my brain.

Shadow has been acting ridiculous all day - plenty of people have pointed this out. Not going to beat a dead horse. He feels scummy for this reason.

Beginning of the day you hopped onto my wagon (as the 3rd voter) with some flimsy reasoning and then wrote half a novel about why you hopped off. Felt weird to me - like you hopped on opportunistically and then hopped off when the lynch wasn't going to happen. You then move onto push Shadow.

Which makes me think you two can't be scum together.

Then there's the case on boring - which you have written at length that you simply don't agree with the reasons she's being scum read. This links the two of you in my eyes - it seems that, if you're scum, you're distracting from Boring by pushing Shadow.

Then Shadow is pushing me - which could also be a distraction from Boring.

Then there's Diefire who nobody has a handle on yet.

Truth is, I'd rate a 75% chance of the remaining scum being in these four. I just don't know how the puzzle fits together.
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Post Post #2534 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:01 pm

Post by nn30 »

Shadow_step wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:09 pm
Zoronos wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:59 pmThis discussion is distracting from actually finding scum. It should stop, and likely do so now.
My scummiess meter on Shadow_step has increased markedly. The things that Implosion pointed out in are not only super aggravating, but also many of them are scum sided (specifically calling yourself conf town while not actually confirmed anything).
The summary of them all is "You are playing both anti-cooperatively, and are actively breaking down cooperation amongst other players." That's an actively pro-scum strategy.

I think at the very least you need to eat some humble pie. In the mean time, I think the rest of us should have a larger discussion on whether or not the wide town read based on D1 play is misguided / overridden by his behavior since then.

However, my best scum read remains Grendel, so I think people should either vote that way, make a case for Grendel being town, or make a more convincing argument for Beatrix being scum (because the bus vote stuff on LUV I don't find convincing, given that there were a number of opportunities for her to vote opportunistically on town targets and instead maintained her vote on a scum. So if she was busing, she was super dedicated to the bus and is probably bad for busing on D2 when she could have lynched town and then bus'ed on D3).


It's not a strategy, its how I play. I'm apathetic, and I still find scum and Lynch them.

The MC is actually going to help us POE, further to reduce the Lynch pool. As is scum will probably kill you and implosion in whatever order so there is no downside to not mass claiming.


Do you even know what the word apathetic means?

If this is how you play I suggest you make your 1 post per day to avoid being prodded and let the rest of the town figure out what's going on. You aren't adding to any discussion in any helpful way whatsoever.
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Post Post #2535 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:02 pm

Post by nn30 »

Shadow_step wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:02 pm
Shadow_step wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:21 amYou call me scum and then call me conf biadsed, implying I'm town. What is it, I can't be both.
If its conf bias you certainly aren't making it easy for yourself by posting things like that.


Calls me out for dodging questions. Dodges questions himself :evil:


You just quoted yourself. Lol.
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Post Post #2536 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:04 pm

Post by nn30 »

Grendel wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:04 pm
Grendel wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:36 pmNN30... Why am I duking it out with boring for your most scummiest read, meanwhile you seem the most skeptical of Shadow's slot when I started pushing shadow more then anybody else has since D1?

Before my push you thought he was town yea?


I mean, I haven't gone back to all your pushes to hard confirm this, but I recall you chiming in whenever the tide of suspicion changed throughout the game, and that's bugging me out. Like, that has some viable scum motivation behind it...

Also nn30, what
are
you current reasons for scum reading me?


Maybe that'd be accurate today - but not for D1 or D2.

The people I pushed the hardest so far have been GE and Shadow. I did that without town consensus behind me.

The reason it feels like I'm going with town consensus is because I have a conf town in implosion, a very hard town read in Prism, and a very likely town in Zoronos all saying reasonable things. My scum hunting this game has been abysmal - so I'm deferring to the people who 1) I trust and 2) seem to be onto something.
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Post Post #2537 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:06 pm

Post by nn30 »

Shadow_step wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:50 pm
nn30 wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:14 amYour conf bias goggles
really
need to come off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

Yes I'm calling myself stupid for having them on the same level.


So @Implosion and anyone else who bothers reading the thread. Don't you think this is a scum slip?
Isn't this nn scum calling me conf biased because he knows I'm town?
If its not, why?


No, it's me saying you have conf bias because you pick and choose 1 of the last 10 things I've posted, post some BS reason to scum read it, and then drop the mic and ignore the rest of the conversation.
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Post Post #2538 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:09 pm

Post by Shadow_step »

nn30 wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:02 pm
Shadow_step wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:02 pm
Shadow_step wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:21 amYou call me scum and then call me conf biadsed, implying I'm town. What is it, I can't be both.
If its conf bias you certainly aren't making it easy for yourself by posting things like that.


Calls me out for dodging questions. Dodges questions himself :evil:


You just quoted yourself. Lol.


I quoted the question. Which you didn't answer.
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"I'm mightily impressed by Shadow's ability to find town PR's, by the way. He was the one directing the first two nightkills." ~Michel
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Post Post #2539 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:09 pm

Post by Zoronos »

Nn30 there is no way shadow is on the table today. His D1 play fits way too closely to the long surprise trap town 'gotcha!' Counterclaim. The town motivation on that line of play is pretty clear.

Pursue individuals, using what we know. Not what we speculate the entire team might be. Focus.
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Post Post #2540 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:11 pm

Post by Shadow_step »

nn30 wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:06 pm
Shadow_step wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:50 pm
nn30 wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:14 amYour conf bias goggles
really
need to come off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

Yes I'm calling myself stupid for having them on the same level.


So @Implosion and anyone else who bothers reading the thread. Don't you think this is a scum slip?
Isn't this nn scum calling me conf biased because he knows I'm town?
If its not, why?


No, it's me saying you have conf bias because you pick and choose 1 of the last 10 things I've posted, post some BS reason to scum read it, and then drop the mic and ignore the rest of the conversation.


Cause you aren't going to scum slip in every post you make now are you?

And worst ass save ever BTW.
Don't pretend like you didn't know what conf bias means, cause that is not what it means.
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"I'm mightily impressed by Shadow's ability to find town PR's, by the way. He was the one directing the first two nightkills." ~Michel
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Post Post #2541 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:13 pm

Post by Shadow_step »

Zoronos wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:09 pmNn30 there is no way shadow is on the table today. His D1 play fits way too closely to the long surprise trap town 'gotcha!' Counterclaim. The town motivation on that line of play is pretty clear.

Pursue individuals, using what we know. Not what we speculate the entire team might be. Focus.


When you are less drunk you will see that NN is simply throwing shade on me without voting me WHILE he is not voting ANYONE.
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Post Post #2542 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:17 pm

Post by nn30 »

Zoronos wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:09 pmNn30 there is no way shadow is on the table today. His D1 play fits way too closely to the long surprise trap town 'gotcha!' Counterclaim. The town motivation on that line of play is pretty clear.

Pursue individuals, using what we know. Not what we speculate the entire team might be. Focus.


The only way I'm going to be able to do this is if I ignore literally every post Shadow makes for the rest of the time he's alive.
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Post Post #2543 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:26 pm

Post by Shadow_step »

nn30 wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:25 pm
Shadow_step wrote: Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:54 am
Intent to hammer LUV


Shadow_step wrote: Tue Oct 25, 2016 5:46 amBrilliant, all the lynch baits got all the good PRs :/

VOTE: Nn

Shadow_step wrote: Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:01 amHe will hammer cause he is scum.
Probably going bonkers in his at.


These three posts happened in relatively quick succession. The second post feels strange to me in particular (it's not because he voted me - it's because he's so quick to believe the claim of the person he just declared intent to hammer on).

Zoro counter-claimed between the 2nd and 3rd quote - which would explain that flip. But the flop between the 1st and 2nd is still throwing me off.


If you had actually read the thread properly and didn't want to simply paint me as scum. You would see that I mentioned the whole point of declaring intent on LUV was to lock him into a claim.
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"I'm mightily impressed by Shadow's ability to find town PR's, by the way. He was the one directing the first two nightkills." ~Michel
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Post Post #2544 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:54 pm

Post by Zoronos »

nn30 wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:17 pm
Zoronos wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:09 pmNn30 there is no way shadow is on the table today. His D1 play fits way too closely to the long surprise trap town 'gotcha!' Counterclaim. The town motivation on that line of play is pretty clear.

Pursue individuals, using what we know. Not what we speculate the entire team might be. Focus.


The only way I'm going to be able to do this is if I ignore literally every post Shadow makes for the rest of the time he's alive.

Then you need to be a lot more freaking convincing .
He's being a jerk, fine whatever I don't even care just let him be a jerk and loop back to it tomroww after I'm dead use what I wrote earlier if you want, but right now we're longing Grendel if we're smart or we're debating boring but I thi , Grendel.
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Post Post #2545 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 7:57 pm

Post by Prism »

Finished my Grendel reread. Next up is Dierfire. As always, I've tried to keep it short to keep it readable-ask if you think something needs more explanation.

I went into it with a pretty heavy scumlean on Grendel. I'm a lot more sold on it now, looking primarily for interactions with LUV. His opening game with LUV is incredibly awkward, in #215 and #232 he basically just calls LUV "lynch bait" as town and says he doesn't know how to read him. He had a big stretch Day 1 of encouraging people to think of who's scum with Gamma, and that it couldn't be LUV so they shouldn't really vote him as he's lynchbait when he's town.

The biggest red flag Day 1 is that he directs questions at LUV but then never actually follows up or interprets their answers:
Grendel wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:15 pm
@LUV
Lets chat a bit:
How do you feel about the two leading wagons, as well as the individuals on them?
And if this were EoD which wagon would you join?
In this hypothetical situation where would you look next if the one you picked flipped scum? if they flipped town?

I want you to take more active stances. Your note taking, and your otherwise low key posting is not helping me get a hold on your alignment friend.
This was the last he had to say about LUV for the day.

Magically, day 2, he forgets LUV is in his words "lynchbait":
Grendel wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:47 pmLuv looks worse in retrospect then I first thought.
This is
exactly what he should have expected
as town given his own meta. If it's comparatively worse to that bad baseline, I would at least expect further explanation given the emphasis Grendel has placed on it, but this never happens.

Before the Gamma wagon takes off:
Grendel wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:08 pmLuv is all over the place and I'm having trouble pacing him. I definitely didn't like his hammer, or the unnatural transitions in his reads. I can't help feeling like it is all to easy though.
I might try to look into Gamma first. There is something he has not been doing that I have been expecting him to do for a while now. And that is bothering me.
After this he winds up hardshoving Gamma, then just kind of flops onto the LUV wagon with no explanation, the only reasoning is what I quoted and that was hundreds of posts before the flip.

Aside from his interactions with LUV, I think his approach to this game has been really suspicious in hindsight. He's prided himself on taking a very ambitious, intellectual approach to the game, but regularly stops at the most basic level of speculation. He said he looks forward to matching wits with us, and made ambitious statements like RQS working him but not "for the masses" and that he tries to pin the whole scumteam Day 1 collectively rather than focus individuals. Simultaneously, his night kill speculation on Maria's death was "boring wouldn't make that because it implicates her" despite that being
exactly what you would expect a scum defense to be.
Several of his stronger townreads have been for things as simplistic as "draws attention to themselves". It seems really strange to take pride in taking a "deeper" approach to the game yet settle for assuming the other players are incapable of more than one level of WIFOM.

With all of the above in mind, Grendel has shot up to #1 on my scum list. boring is a lot more likely to be town now. My reasoning for voting her has largely been based on PoE and not liking her attitude. The biggest thing that flags me to her being scum is Grendel's hesitance to vote her, and that says a lot about what I think about Grendel.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Grendel
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Post Post #2546 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:07 pm

Post by Prism »

That wound up a lot longer than I wanted.

tl;dr of that post: ISO Grendel and ctrl+F LUV.


I realize Shadow is giving us all a collective headache but this has become a serious distraction. His #2532 actually makes a pretty good point. Grendel's goal has been "to pin the whole team at once" but it doesn't really seem like his approach has really matched up to that.

I'm fine with seeing how the ordered list comes out and having Implosion hard veto it if he wants. I also see no reason for Implosion to claim unless he feels it is appropriate.

My list is: Grendel, boring, PenguinPower, Dierfire, Shadow, nn30.

@boring
I'd put him at my third slot for a lynch, and I'm pretty sure one of you is happening. I'll reread him if that becomes necessary or if I have the spare time but right now it looks like I'm getting a top choice.
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Post Post #2547 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:09 pm

Post by Prism »

Prism wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:07 pm@boring I'd put him at my third slot for a lynch, and I'm pretty sure one of you (my top two, Grendel/boring) is happening. I'll reread him if that becomes necessary or if I have the spare time but right now it looks like I'm getting a top choice.
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Post Post #2548 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:46 pm

Post by implosion »

I just remembered that Grendel is the only remaining reasonable candidate for scum-off-the-wagon for eager if nn is town. And I think i'm personally going to start putting stock into an nn townread; I think I've convinced myself of it. Notably I remembered this looking at grendel's where he lists scum teams that he thinks make sense going off of the wagon, and notably considers himself and nn as town and so based on the assumption that some scum is trying to "go deep" reasons that likely either i or zoronos is scum.

Prism's point that grendel isn't following up with the level of depth that he says he puts into the game is very interesting. The idea of how deep a player will think as town is something that I've been tossing around in my head since a recent hydra game where the subject came up in discussion with my other head. I'm quite curious to see grendel's response to it. I'm also curious to see what grendel thinks of the fact that his high-level analysis in 1847 has more or less fallen flat on its face given that 3/5 of the teams he listed have two people on them between me/zoronos/gamma... and one of the teams contained all three :s. I never read that post in depth until now but it's an almost fanatical level of attempted foresight... trying to call the scumteam based solely on vca and a little soft poe. He says he wants to start with lynching gamma because he's in 4 of them but ignores that i'm in 3 and luv is in 3 and zoronos is in 3 which is really only nominally less. Maybe doesn't ignore it. But it's an awfully convenient excuse, if grendel is scum, to lump me, zoronos, and luv into a "deal with after we get a flip from gamma" pile. His vote on luv at end of day 2 feels really awkward, like he's not really enthused about it. Like idk, after making that big deal out of those scumteams and asking his town pile to help comment on his high level speculation he ends the day after gamma is shown to be town on a note of "eh, i guess a luv lynch works for me" before adding some more words about the claim being fake. Can't 100% put my finger on this here. It sort of does feel like his thought processes are trailing off more than they should be. which sort of gets at what prism was talking about.

more to come probably.
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Post Post #2549 (ISO) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:47 pm

Post by Prism »

Thought more about Implosion's jail suggestion. He's absolutely right and he should announce a jail publicly-if we lynch scum today we get a free clear no matter what out of it if Zoro is town.

That said, we shouldn't bet on lynching scum today. Assuming there's two, we need to maximize his chance of jailing correctly given this. If our lynch flips town, Zoronos needs to pick who he thinks is best,
regardless of but including the named target.
I think Zoronos should keep his reads close to his chest for the rest of the day. The only vote he makes should be hammer. Scum can afford one no kill but it's a big opportunity for an extra mislynch or even autowin if we manage to get it. If Zoro never dies we can reevaluate that but it'd be pretty stupid to claim jailkeeper here as scum given that he has to die soon.

I'm also not the biggest fan of follow the clear but it's also a great idea to have implosion singularly pick today's lynch when we approach the deadline.
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