Micro 649: Normal Idea Mafia (Game Over)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #576 (isolation #0) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:21 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Catching up with this game now.

As we're in massclaim, claiming immediately: I'm a Jailkeeper, Gamma jailed itlepip Night 1 and Sgz13 Night 2, I jailed Sgz13 Night 3.
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Post Post #577 (isolation #1) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:25 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I'm going to read the players who haven't claimed first in order to make a sensible decision about popcorning. (As it's massclaim, I'm going to hold off on making comments until after the claims are finished.)
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Post Post #578 (isolation #2) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:36 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Popcorn to Heartache.

(I'm going to continue reading through some of the other players while the massclaim is going on.)
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Post Post #610 (isolation #3) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:16 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Agree that it's obvious that someone's lying.

With six players alive, there are 15 possible scumteams. That's a small enough number to analyse them individually to see if the night actions make sense. I'm not going to assume anything about scum claims being honest (unlike McMenno, I think that's a really dangerous assumption!), and am going to assume that scum killed N2 but might or might not have killed N3:

CFJ + 1SVT: I don't see any theory reason why this would be impossible (of course, I know I'm town so I can discount this possibility, but I'm listing it to help the rest of town try to solve the game), this could be explained by 1SVT having some sort of blocking role and lying about his actions;
CFJ + Heartache: Possible; this would require both me and Heartache to be lying about targets/results, but could happen with the claimed roles;
CFJ + McMenno/Sgz13/Leonshade: All three of these are possible, but require an unclaimed role to exist to explain Heartache's no-result N3;
1SVT + Heartache: I don't see any reason why this wouldn't work, given that it would explain all the contradictory investigative data, although it would require a nightkill
on
Sgz13 (or a no-action gambit) N2;
1SVT + McMenno: This situation seems most likely if 1SVT is a rolestopper. He could have rolestopped his buddy McMenno N1, Heartache N2, Leonshade N3. Again, this requires an nightkill on Sgz13, but there's a plausible explanation in this case: nothing in this scenario confirms that McMenno is vanilla (he didn't act N2 but could have had an N1, odd-night, or non-consecutive modifier), and McMenno could therefore have somehow determined Sgz13's role night 1, which would make him a high kill priority.
1SVT + Sgz13: Again, if 1SVT is blocking night actions, there don't seem to be any problems here (this works with roleblocker, rolestopper,
or
jailkeeper). This scenario is particularly plausible because it's trivial to explain the missing kills in this one.
1SVT + Leonshade: This is very similar to the 1SVT + McMenno case, although like in the previous case, 1SVT can have any blocking role and it still works.
Heartache + McMenno: This works fine if McMenno blocked Leonshade's night action N2. We only have Heartache's word that McMenno wasn't responsible for that. Again, it'd need Sgz13 to be the nightkill.
Heartache + Sgz13: I can't see a sensible way to make this work; if Heartache were Ascetic (to block Leonshade's N2 action) it would also have blocked 1SVT's N3 action. I guess you can make it work if
both
scum players have some sort of roleblocking/rolestopping role (Heartache blocking my action N2, Sgz13 blocking Leonshade's action N2, and 1SVT being the kill target), but that seems fairly unlikely.
Heartache + Leonshade: Straightforwardly works, because most of the investigative results can be lies.
McMenno + Sgz13: I don't think there's any way to explain Leonshade's no-result N2 in this situation, unless a townie is lying. So this case is likely impossible.
McMenno + Leonshade: Works if Leonshade has an unclaimed Ascetic modifier; also mathematically works (but is less plausible) if McMenno is an odd-night rolestopper. There are two possible explanations for the lack of kill: Sgz13 being the kill target N2 (again, note that there's no confirmation of McMenno's role, only that he didn't act N2, so he could have discovered Sgz13's role N1); or Leonshade interfering with my night action N2 (meaning that Sgz13's Weak Doctor action saved 1SVT's life; note that if Leonshade has an Ascetic modifier, we have zero confirmation of what his actual role is).
Sgz13 + Leonshade: Works if Leonshade has an unclaimed Ascetic modifier. I don't think there are any other explanations, because neither Sgz13 nor Leonshade could have roleblocked Heartache or rolestopped Leonshade N3.

Now I've done that, I feel a bit disappointed; I was hoping that the night actions would exclude a ton of possible scumteams (especially because McMenno was implying they would), but most of them seem to still be viable.

McMenno, why did you assume that everyone was being honest about their role? This gives me a bit of a bad taste in my mouth,
especially[/] because a) you claimed VT, and b) there's no confirmation by anyone that you're vanilla (only that you didn't act N2).
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Post Post #612 (isolation #4) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:24 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I'm pretty concerned about many of the slots, really. I reread the Heartache and 1SVT slots first in order to determine who to popcorn to, and neither filled me with a huge amount of confidence. Heartache appears to have been doing more pushing lynches than actual scumhunting, which is concerning because it implies a lack of concern as to whether the lynches are actually on scum. Meanwhile, 1SVT (the player, not the slot) doesn't seem to have any reads that aren't based on theory or a very cursory read, and doesn't seem to be spending much effort on trying to scumhunt (he's admitted he hasn't read through your slot ever, in #). Tere (the same slot) spent much of her time active lurking (the posts mostly consist of information dumps); I'm conflicted about what I think about the Heartache push (it looks genuine earlier on but more artificial later; it seems to go from genuine read to tunnelling to thinking that Heartache is town but needs to be lynched anyway? (#)). Sgz's ISO is also fairly terrible; it's full of mostly meaningless one-liners which makes it very annoying to read.

@1SVT
: why did you change from thinking Heartache was scum to thinking Heartache was town in #?
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Post Post #616 (isolation #5) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:58 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I normally spend days re-evaluating my reads in lylo (and observing how other people interact, and asking them questions) even when I've been playing the game for a long time already.

Having just replaced in and done basic ISOs and spent time getting to grips with the theory but not much else, I don't have any reads that are strong enough to push them yet. So no, I'm not going to start pushing reads unless I'm at least reasonably sure that they're correct.

In your opinion, is it normally correct strategy for players to push reads that they aren't sure about?

PEDIT: Also, there can totally be two protective roles. Please read the setup generation information in the OP. The roles were all generated at random; there is no mechanic preventing duplicate or similar roles, and no mechanic requiring the game to be balanced. This isn't a normal game.
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Post Post #624 (isolation #6) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:06 am

Post by callforjudgement »

@Leonshade: If Sgz is scum, it's with you or 1SVT.

I can understand why Gamma Emerald thought that Sgz was scum; he was blocking Sgz, there was no kill, it seems reasonable. However, a number of unexplained blocks have been claimed; and the fact that I was blocking Sgz repeatedly means that it's
less
likely that Sgz is responsible (because being blocked means that he couldn't block anyone else). Meanwhile, there's a need to explain the no-kill, and most likely either Sgz was performing the kill, or Sgz was the target (likely because scum had somehow determined he was a Weak Doctor and thus a huge threat).

Do you think I should have strong views on Sgz based on dayplay, or only on night actions? If it's based on night actions, then why don't you think 1SVT is scum?
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Post Post #626 (isolation #7) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:09 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 622, Sgz13 wrote:2 VTs?
Aristophanes flipped VT.

That said, it'd be mathematically fallacious to assume that a second VT is less likely just because one's flipped. (That said, VT – and less powerful/protective roles in general – tend to be more common fakeclaims for scum because they're harder to confirm and give less information away. Additionally, many players who are used to more normal games are in the habit of claiming VT as the "default" claim for scum. So a VT claim in a game generated like this still makes me more suspicious of a player than most other claims would, just for different reasons.)
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Post Post #630 (isolation #8) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:17 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Wow, just reread McMenno as a result of this conversation, and the ISO is all sorts of terrible. I don't think he explained any reads all game until D4 (unless I missed something), and then tried to narrow the lynch pool to me/Heartache/Leonshade based on a dubious theory argument (# which translates to "I claimed VT therefore I can't possibly have taken any night actions even if I'm scum").

Why does it seem like everyone's ISO is terrible this game? At the moment it's hard for me to know who's scum because there are so many choices.

@McMenno
: Care to explain the reasoning behind some of your reads earlier in the game?
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Post Post #633 (isolation #9) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:24 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 629, Leonshade wrote:Night actions. The unexplained blocks couldn't have been done by town, otherwise why lie during the massclaim? So yes, either Sgz was the target or scum from your POV.

I don't think 1SVT is scum, I think you're scum. 1SVT is my strongest TR.
There are a few situations involving multiple scum roleblockers/rolestoppers/jailkeepers too, but I agree that Sgz was most likely either the nightkill target or the nightkill performer N2.

However, what I don't get is why you'd think I'd conclude from that that Sgz is scum. There are unclaimed blocks going around. I know I wasn't responsible for that (and in a "my POV" argument, you have to make the assumption). I blocked Sgz. Thus isn't it more likely that the unclaimed blocks came from somebody else?
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Post Post #635 (isolation #10) » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:33 am

Post by callforjudgement »

There are plenty of other possibilities.

For example, say you're scum with Heartache and actually a roleblocker. You block me N2, Sgz's protection on 1SVT goes through and stops the kill. That doesn't seem that implausible to me.
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Post Post #654 (isolation #11) » Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:01 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 650, Heartache wrote:If leonshade is scum, he would have had to been creative enough to come up with "even-night-only cop" and also about having been roleblocked.
In fact, if leonshade is scum he could probably just have faked a guilty onto me or sgz and have won the game easily.
But if Leonshade is town and McMenno is scum, then who's McMenno's buddy? From your point of view, it can only be me or 1SVT, unless there's something I'm missing.

I agree that McMenno's claim is terrible and that his ISO is terrible, but by far the most plausible McMenno buddies are Leonshade and you. The other possibilities require some rather implausible jumping around of blocking roles. So you might want to re-evaluate your reads, taking theory into account.

@Leonshade: I'm really tired right now, so I'm not likely to be able to manage any complex theory immediately, but I'll have a look at seeing if there's some sort of breaking no-lynch strategy when I wake up. (My initial guess is that there isn't, though.)

@1SVT:
If you're scum
, you almost certainly have an unclaimed blocking-like role (unless Heartache is your buddy). There are plenty of scenarios where you aren't scum at all, though.

Note that Leonshade could have been either Rolestopped by someone (presumably scum), or Ascetic (in which case Leonshade is scum); both of those would explain Heartache's no-result without you being able to see why, and without Heartache being scum. So that isn't exactly a 1v1
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Post Post #700 (isolation #12) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 2:29 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I jailkept Sgz last night. I decided that the most likely choice for scum was Leonshade and that he would almost certainly shoot Sgz, which would almost certainly lead to a scum win. If Leonshade were scum, protecting Sgz with my JK shot would likely lead to a guaranteed town win (because we'd have Leonshade's cop result which would probably lead to a confirmed townie or a 1v1, either of which allows town to win with five players alive).

I'm going to have to reread; I didn't expect that kill at all. There doesn't seem to be any theory reason to prefer 1SVT or McMenno as the remaining scum (either could equally well be an unclaimed roleblocker), so sorting this out will have to be based on dayplay; Sgz, obviously, is confirmed town. As usual when there's only one scum left, talking isn't all that useful (although I may well have questions and will answer questions that other players have, this is going to be easier to solve via referencing previous days than via trying to sort things out today).
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Post Post #701 (isolation #13) » Sat Nov 05, 2016 3:29 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

OK, so looking through Heartache's ISO, there are plenty of interactions with McMenno, many of which clearly seem quite artificial. Heartache's been soft-pushing McMenno repeatedly (i.e. claiming a scumread on McMenno but not voting for him) repeatedly: #, #, #, #/#, #. In most games, that's the result of a scumbuddy relationship. In this game, though, I don't think it's as strong; there were obvious alternative "mis"lynches (itlepip/BYF day 2, no lynch day 3) which would be preferable for scum to push, and so keeping a level of suspicion on McMenno would have been useful if he were town, in an attempt to give the necessary lynch to push the game through. Then of course there's the weird claim-interaction thing where Heartache claims that McMenno's claiming soft-power but no-acted N2, and McMenno subsequently claims VT. I can most easily interpret that as a method of allowing the players to attack each other, then subsequently claim a townread if it becomes necessary.

There's also a second layer which is revealed upon reading McMenno. McMenno has hardly contributed through most of the game (day 1 he never left RVS, unsurprising given that it was so short; day 2 the only substantive post is # which is a reads list that's noncommital on many players). In general, when McMenno does contribute content, it's unexplained reads. Day 3, McMenno started scumreading Heartache as the second-strongest scumread (while advocating for no lynch) apparently purely based on the basis of Heartache's softclaim (#). By #/# McMenno apparently strongly thinks Heartache is scum (again without explanation; possibly OMGUS?), votes and then unvotes no lynch, and tries to force Heartache to claim. Day 4 is where things get interesting: # sets out the night actions, and tries to encourage people to assume that everyone's trueclaiming their role. That would make McMenno look town (because
someone
had to block Leonshade N2, and McMenno claimed no action that night with Heartache confirming it). OTOH, now we know that Heartache is scum, it's quite possible that that confirmation was fabricated in an attempt to drive suspicion onto other players. In general, I consider McMenno's apparent trust of scum not to fakeclaim (and attempt to drive that narrative via assuming that it can't possibly fail to be the case) to be a very suspicious turn of events. (Also, McMenno's reads continue to be either unexplained or entirely theory-based D4. McMenno doesn't seem to have actually scumhunted all game.)

Meanwhile, Heartache hardly has any interactions with Tere (=1SVT throughout most of the game). Pretty much all of them are driven from Tere's side; Heartache seems to have been ignoring Tere's presence in the game whenever possible. One thing I found interesting is that Tere scumread reso (= Heartache) for a bogus reason upon replacing in (# scumreads reso for dropping out of the game in # but not officially replacing out; but reso actually did drop out, and did the same thing in the now-completed Newbie 1740; "reso has stopped posting in all its games" is something that could easily have been checked at the time without violating ongoing-game rules). Tere seems to have scumread reso consistently all day 2, but didn't vote for ages (the vote counts are wrong but light_ganski never voted for reso) and only seems to have voted Heartache much later in # when prompted (and at a point when Heartache was very unlikely to be lynched; players were looking to consolidate at the time and somebody's vote would have had to change). Then soon after (#) Tere made a large case on BYF anyway (despite BYF being at L-1 and having voted for Heartache). The next day, Tere was back to pushing Heartache (#) but without voting (which makes some degree of sense as it was mylo at the time), and never voted again. (Incidentally, # is just weird.)

Once 1SVT replaced in, there was an abrupt reversal of opinion on the Heartache slot in # (claimed to have been a gambit in #; I can see the merits of trying to draw the kill onto the player you're watching, but Heartache wasn't exactly a likely kill target even with the endorsement…) Also, 1SVT seems to have hardly contributed late day 3 / early day 4. Incidentally, I didn't get a chance to reply to # because the thread had been locked by the time I got online, but # was meant to be a reply to #, rather than a question.

Overall, I'm pretty torn on this. I think McMenno is more likely to be the scum based on my reread, but I can see either as a possibility, so holding off on voting for now.

@Mod: Can you correct the votecount in #?
It was a pain to figure out who was voting where at the time from it, as it's clearly wrong.
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Post Post #713 (isolation #14) » Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:22 am

Post by callforjudgement »

@McMenno
: Could you please explain
why
you are so insistent on thinking that everyone else is trueclaiming role? There's a scummy explanation (that you want people to believe your claim that you're a VT and thus can't possibly have blocked Leonshade N2); do you have a townish explanation available as an alternative?
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Post Post #715 (isolation #15) » Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:29 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Ugh, it's so hard to read 1SVT (as opposed to Tere, which is where most of my read on the slot comes from) as he's hardly contributed. He hasn't even expressed a read since Wednesday.

@1SVT
: What were your reads day 4? In particular, did you draw any conclusions from the Heartache flip overnight? What are your reads now, and why?

PEDIT: @McMenno: You're acting in a scummy way. I want to know if there's an innocent explanation for it. Like, if you are actually town, you'd surely prefer us to lynch someone else rather than losing the game!
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Post Post #721 (isolation #16) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:03 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 717, 1 Shot Vanilla Town wrote:
In post 715, callforjudgement wrote:@1SVT: What were your reads day 4? In particular, did you draw any conclusions from the Heartache flip overnight? What are your reads now, and why?
Yeah, you're scum.
McMenno isn't flipping scum and neither is Sgz.
POE only suggests you.
This is such a strange endgame.

You haven't done anything useful for ages, and when I ask you questions to try to figure out what you were thinking, you refuse to answer and call me scum, without pushing the read. You didn't even have a scumread on me before the post! (# implies either that you think I'm town, or that you think I'm scum with you; the latter is impossible.)

McMenno has been acting in a scummy way all game. When I ask him questions to try to figure out if there's an innocent explanation for his actions, he refuses to answer and pushes me instead.

In other words, a) one of you and McMenno is tunnelling, b) the other is exploiting that by forcing the conversation to be about me rather than defending yourself. And because you won't let the conversation be about anyone but me, you're making it impossible to figure out which is which!

Mafia, as town, is a game of looking town, finding scum, and pushing your scumreads. Sgz, who's confirmed and doesn't even have to look town, is doing all of that; he's come to the wrong conclusions, but that's acceptable. You aren't doing that. McMenno isn't doing that. McMenno is pushing me, and at least giving reasoning; but that's only 1 out of 3 parts of the job of a townie. You aren't doing
any
of the three. Both of you, please try to put more effort in!
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Post Post #723 (isolation #17) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:41 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Well, it's a fairly high priority in mylo/lylo, when there are few players alive and a mislynch costs you the game. (In the extreme case, a 2:1 lylo with one player confirmed, you already know who scum is, so looking town is directly part of pushing scum.) Besides, it's easier to push your reads if other people are fairly sure you're town.

I'm just astonished that players would completely abandon any attempts to help the rest of the town determine that they're town, especially this late in the game when their mislynch would lose the game. Someone's doing it, as we have two players trying it and, much though they're acting like it, they can't both be scum. 1SVT apparently has a PoE read on me as scum, implying that he thinks McMenno has been playing townishly. And McMenno's reaction is basically "I'm being townread, I don't need to defend myself when someone sets out the argument for me as scum". Instead of helping me read him, he's apparently defending himself by trying to end the game as soon as possible, offering 1SVT the hammer and hoping that the day and thus game are over before he gets too broadly criticised. (If he's town, this would be a fairly risky strategy, depending on 1SVT being town
and
reading him and me correctly, and on you not changing your mind. If he's scum, rushing things makes more sense as there's less of a downside, and getting in before you change your mind would be advantageous.) Bear in mind that all this started because I wasn't sure whether McMenno's reactions to claims were an indicator of him being scum or not. I really didn't expect the response to be an outright refusal to help me scumhunt!

I'm still not 100% sure that McMenno is scum (of course, I will be if 1SVT turns up and doesn't hammer). But he certainly isn't doing anything to help his cause.
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Post Post #725 (isolation #18) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:15 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Yes.

VOTE: McMenno
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Post Post #731 (isolation #19) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:44 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I think the best argument for McMenno being scum is his play day 3 (which is particularly clear from the ISO).

He starts off arguing for no lynch (presumably based on theory arguments), then expresses a willingness to lynch anyone but Leonshade in # (despite the fact it's mylo; this is a response to a request for reads), then starts pushing Sgz for unknown reasons (he's pushing Sgz as strongly as he ever pushes anyone, and hasn't given any reason for Sgz as scum past #, way in the past and basically based on RVS posts). He also pushes Heartache as scum
based purely on lack of claim
(presumably so that when Heartache claims, it gives him a convenient reason to revoke the scumread on his buddy, whilst getting in a bunch of distancing in the meantime). That's… all McMenno did day 3.

Heartache claimed a no-action on McMenno, and McMenno eventually claimed VT. That's a convenient set of claims for scum: it conveniently hides the fact that McMenno's been performing actions via providing corroboration. McMenno then pushed (and is still pushing) very strongly for people to believe that scum would trueclaim their role and fakeclaim their actions, and hasn't explained this even when asked. That makes a lot of sense from a scum perspective, because it would necessarily push suspicion onto me if people believed them; on the other hand, I can't see any reason to believe that scum would act like that in the first place, and suspect that there isn't one.

Then today, McMenno's been refusing to engage, instead trying to rush the day as much as possible. That makes it look like he's confident of winning if people don't think things through, but worried about what might happen if the day goes longer. # is a naked vote on me as soon as it looked like my wagon might go through. When a player hammers like that, it's normally considered an admission of being scum. That wasn't a hammer, but I'd have expected a townie to give at least some explanation.

PEDIT: My chart there was attempting to eliminate players as scum based on theory reasons (for example, we know that Sgz and Heartache can't be scum together). When I started it, I assumed that most pairs would be eliminated and we could solve the game on night actions (especially as the theory posts in the game so far, from McMenno, had been painting it as very simple). It turned out there were a lot more viable pairs than I thought.

It's a mathematical fact that based on the information we had on D4, in most of the pairings where you were (hypothetically) scum, you had a roleblocking role of some kind. (McMenno couldn't have blocked Leonshade N2 because Heartache claimed to tracked him nowhere and would have been town in the scenario of you + McMenno; Sgz couldn't have blocked Leonshade because I blocked Sgz; and Leonshade wouldn't have been able to rolestop
himself
N3, so he would have needed a buddy to do that.) That wasn't intended to throw shade on you. It was intended to make sure that we weren't missing any possibilities as to who the scumteam was, that might have wrongly lead us to think that scum was confirmed or that a townie was confirmed scum. (And doing that was particularly important, because McMenno was trying to convince us of incorrect theory conclusions at the time!)
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Post Post #732 (isolation #20) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:45 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

My PEDIT above was a reply to #.
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Post Post #733 (isolation #21) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:51 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 596, McMenno wrote:Nevermind, callforjudgement + Heartache/Leonshade isn't ruled out. But my second point still rests:
For one of Heartache or Leonshade to be town, callforjudgement HAS to be scum.
Here: this is why I was concentrating so much on the theory.

The quoted statement is outright incorrect, and McMenno wanted people to believe it was true. As it happens, Leonshade has flipped town, so if McMenno were telling the truth here, I'd have been incorrectly confirmed as scum, and scum would have won already.

This is what made me run through all the possible scum pairings to see which were viable. For example, 1SVT + Heartache was viable at the time (and only disproved by your lack of quickhammer just now, although I was reading you as likely town anyway by that point). In order to show that they were viable (and thus that McMenno's theory conclusions were wrong), I had to give an example of a setup in which it could happen.
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Post Post #736 (isolation #22) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:03 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I thought he was likely to be the nightkill, especially because he was confirmed town (he couldn't have been town with Heartache).

If I'd stopped the nightkill, there would have been five alive, meaning that we'd have a mislynch. Combined with Leonshade's result, that would likely have been a town autowin, or almost so.
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Post Post #737 (isolation #23) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:04 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

EBWOP: "we'd have a mislynch" = "we could mislynch someone and still not lose", i.e. we'd get two tries to find scum. Just realised that that might be a bit ambiguous.
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Post Post #738 (isolation #24) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:37 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Actually, just realised that now 1SVT is confirmed as town, we might have a forced win here.

If we no-lynch, I jail McMenno, Sgz weak-doctors McMenno, 1SVT watches Sgz, then:
- If McMenno is scum, he can't do anything because I jailed him (and in particular, can't nightkill a second player, so we necessarily survive until tomorrow). Sgz dies due to the Weak ability, and 1SVT sees that nobody targeted Sgz (thus the death must have been a consequence of the Weak ability rather than a scum nightkill).
- If McMenno is town (and thus I'm scum), Sgz won't die from the Weak modifier, so the only way he can die is from the scum nightkill. But if I kill him, 1SVT will see the kill, and thus be able to prove me scum. I can't interfere with this with any potential power role: it must have been me who blocked Leonshade N2 in this scenario, and if I have a blocking role, I can't be a Ninja at the same time. (Actually, now I'm not sure the plan works: I checked the list of roles while reading the post, and I guess if I were scum it'd be possible for me to be a JOAT (Jailkeeper, Ninja). Highly unlikely, though, so it might be worth going for it anyway.)

Anyone see any problems with this plan?
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Post Post #739 (isolation #25) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:53 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Wait, just realised that I might not be able to block McMenno from blocking me (and thus being able to make a kill, winning the game for scum).

@Mod: If two players block each other, and one of them performs the nightkill, does the nightkill go through?
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Post Post #748 (isolation #26) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:05 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Sorry, everyone.

I was indeed scum, and tried my best to give you a game, but it was pretty much always going to be an uphill battle. Town had way too much investigative power, and I was forced into nightkilling Leonshade because it was the only kill that a) gave me a night action claim that was viable as town and b) didn't give town a 100% autowin (as seen above, town very nearly had an autowin even in this setup without the cop, but I was saved only by action resolution).

I'm pretty sure Heartache self-hammered due to needing to die before I did. I'm not even a Jailkeeper. I'm a Night 2 Rolestopper. I had to significantly overclaim my role to prevent town getting too far ahead just based on nightplay; and if I'd died and flipped my role, it'd have implicated Heartache so strongly that there's basically no chance we'd have survived another day.

I do think I may have screwed up my play D4 (which is the main reason I'm annoyed at this game; I'm normally happy to play a townsided setup as scum, but it's frustrating to screw up the theory that over). If I'd claimed to target Leonshade (trying to paint him as the nightkill target), or popcorned to 1SVT rather than Heartache, scum would probably have been in a better position (clearly I couldn't do both; if I didn't claim to block Sgz, 1SVT would have been confirmed town). It's hard to know, though. After 1SVT claimed (thus making it very hard for Heartache to indicate that there was a rogue roleblocker out there), I realised that I basically had no chance to win, but played things out anyway in order to give town a game. I think I did better than I was expecting, but even so, I still didn't really stand much of a chance.

(BTW, my frustration at McMenno and 1SVT earlier was genuine. 1SVT improved and I have no problem with his play on this page (although the "you're trying to call me a roleblocker" argument is still nonsensical; I'd have mentioned that even as town), but I wouldn't want to play with McMenno again; his playstyle helps scum regardless of which faction he's on (his town playstyle is trivial to fake as scum, and not helpful to town when he draws town).)
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Post Post #757 (isolation #27) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:19 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 749, 1 Shot Vanilla Town wrote:Well thanks for trying Call.
I think if you pushed more towards lynching Heart then I would have sided with you more this day, I've only seen you in some games, but you don't seem like the player to throw a team mate under the bus.
I'll bus if I have to (I once won a game by bussing my entire scumteam), but I do it less than half the time.

I was seriously considering bussing Heartache this game (mostly because based on the nightplay, it was absolutely vital that Heartache died before I did), but the day ended before I got a chance. (I wasn't faking being offline at any point in D4; my absence was genuine.)
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