Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

podoboq
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Post Post #2650  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:01 pm

Official Vote Count 3.17
LynchingWith 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Grendel (3): Zoronos, Dierfire, Prism
boring (2): implosion, PenguinPower
PenguinPower (1): Grendel
nn30 (1): Shadow_step

Not Voting (2): nn30, boring

V/LA: Zoronos


Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-14 13:30:00)
eagerSnake - "Fwiw mod steals pagetops while driving. Still think they wouldn't put in 2 people with ascetic?"

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Post Post #2651  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:05 pm

Well, Pengiun is town.

With two asthics, one jail keeper, one cop, I was expecting one more strong role, or two middling roles to counter the two negative utilities. With only one sitting PR claim I'm thinking that Penguin has to be telling the truth. I'm a little disappointed because backup roles aren't a huge pro for town in my experience. But my set-up spec is altered by playing elsewhere. Whether or not Deputy is considered strong or middling, the lack of other claims reassures me that Penguin is truthful.

I'm thinking that town power isn't significant enough to even out the asthetics. Assuming that shadow is town, this means that scum power must be weak too. I'd say they shouldn't have anything. Yet, I'm guessing that they must have something because they targeted Gamma last night. Perhaps scum have an "x-shot strongman", or "x-shot role blocker", or a role stopper.

In other news I wasted like two hours earlier building a case to connect Penguin to LUV. Maybe I should have waited until all the claims rolled out before I started things.

Pre-edit

Hey Penguin. I know you think I'm scummy, but if you were to assume I were town. Do you think that Deirfire and nn30 are scummy, and have scum chemistry with LUV?

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Post Post #2652  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:06 pm

Oh yeah, I should do this.

UNVOTE:

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Post Post #2653  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:34 pm

PP, your reaction to Gamma's claim looks pretty kosher, but why did you wait 4 days after his claim to leave your breadcrumb? Why not leave it sooner/immediately?

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Post Post #2654  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:46 pm

Because I'm a newer player and didn't really think of crumbing until implosion mentioned it in post . I thought that it would be good for me to do so as soon as possible to that (post ). Happens to be the first time I have ever done so.

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Post Post #2655  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:54 pm

@Penguin - the breadcrumb is a cool idea, but all it does is indicate planning. It's NAI.

I'm choosing to believe your claim on the basis of your LUV interactions and I encourage the rest of the town to make their decisions on PP for reasons other than the breadcrumbs.

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Post Post #2656  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:25 pm

In post 2646, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 2643, nn30 wrote:@PP - Also, holy hell I'm glad you didn't leave me digging for breadcrumbs for too long. I would never have found that.


I didn't want anyone to find it. I wanted to use that as "proof" later on so that my investigations would be believed. Now we mass claimed, so may as well point to it.

Yeah this is a little strange of a question given that this is the entire point of a breadcrumb but I think she's just commenting on you telling us we could look for it before you pointed it out. That is a good breadcrumb. I'm pretty much entirely inclined to believe pp is town at this point. Which means if I trust my shadow/nn townreads (which I do) and am right about them, then we can lynch the other 4? Of course we also have power roles to help us along the way which is nice~

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Post Post #2657  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:38 pm

@Implosion - the breadcrumb only implies planning. Scum could have thought ahead - I'm agreeing on the town read but don't rule this out.

Why else is PP town for you?

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Post Post #2658  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:42 pm

Are you serious right now? I could have easily claimed VT with the rest of you, especially since I wasn't even up on the chopping block to date.

You're really making me reconsider my Grendel read with you continued focus on me instead of probable scum.

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Post Post #2659  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:48 pm

@Penguin, Don't forget to answer this.

In post 2651, Grendel wrote:Hey Penguin. I know you think I'm scummy, but if you were to assume I were town. Do you think that Deirfire and nn30 are scummy, and have scum chemistry with LUV?


Alright. This is where I think we should be going.

VOTE: Deirfire

I'll provide a case tomorrow.

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Post Post #2660  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:53 pm

I just got home:
1) Breadcrumbs are dumb. I don't understand why people do them, and I further don't understand why anyone believes them. As the NN30 / Penguin interaction showed, that crumb would never have been found without it being pointed out, which makes it intrinsically useless since anyone could leave any number of similarly un-findable crumbs, and then point back to any arbitrary claim.
PP gets believed if he plays towny and gets lynched if he doesn't, that simple. We'll see what he comes up with ~tomorrow~. He's not being lynched today though.

2) We're still lynching Grendel. Choo choo all aboard.
Actually I want to re-read and think a bit but I'm reasonably confident this is still the right answer.

3) I don't actually have a (3) but I like lists with three things in them.

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Post Post #2661  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:04 pm

I think I still prefer a boring lynch over a Grendel lynch; my initial gut impression of his responses were that they dissuaded a lot of the points against him in my mind but i need to look at them more closely. Other big reason is that boring + {grendel/dier} seems more likely to me than grendel+dier due to already-mentioned vca. And I don't suspect anyone else of being scum (I think prism has the highest chance of being the scum who's slipping under everyone's radar right now but do not think he is.)

@nn, penguin is town because:
1) i had a pre-existing townread on him which i've justified quite a bit,
2) his breadcrumb is not something i would expect from unexperienced scum,
3) no way in hell do we only have 2 power roles. Assuming 3 scum at least. I doubt a 2 PR 3 scum mini normal setup has ever passed normal review, even with pretty strong PRs (especially since cop+jk don't play nicely together).

Zoronos wrote:1) Breadcrumbs are dumb. I don't understand why people do them, and I further don't understand why anyone believes them. As the NN30 / Penguin interaction showed, that crumb would never have been found without it being pointed out, which makes it intrinsically useless since anyone could leave any number of similarly un-findable crumbs, and then point back to any arbitrary claim.

You're right in the sense that this does make them theoretically useless. You're wrong in that in practice no one does this. No one is saying a breadcrumb should be a be-all end-all. But empirically I don't think I've ever seen a scum player breadcrumb multiple things.

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Post Post #2662  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:10 pm

In post 2661, implosion wrote:You're right in the sense that this does make them theoretically useless. You're wrong in that in practice no one does this. No one is saying a breadcrumb should be a be-all end-all. But empirically I don't think I've ever seen a scum player breadcrumb multiple things.


I have seen scum do this.
Maybe nobody on *this* board does it (or nobody you've seen), but I absolutely guarantee it happens and is very easy to do.

So. Practice reasonable skepticism and play the game in front of us.

------------------
If you want me to even begin to agree with a Boring lynch, you should explain to me why in the presence of multiple 'easy' trains yesterday, she stayed locked on LUV.

She played anti-opportunistically. Why do that as scum and instead sit locked on for an unnecessary D2 bus?

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Post Post #2663  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:21 pm

In post 2658, PenguinPower wrote:Are you serious right now? I could have easily claimed VT with the rest of you, especially since I wasn't even up on the chopping block to date.

You're really making me reconsider my Grendel read with you continued focus on me instead of probable scum.


I'm pointing out the obvious. Bread crumbs are NAI.

Grendel is still who I want to lynch today.

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Post Post #2664  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:26 pm

In post 2657, nn30 wrote:@Implosion - the breadcrumb only implies planning. Scum could have thought ahead - I'm agreeing on the town read but don't rule this out.

Why else is PP town for you?


This is why I keep thinking you are scum. You just do surface level analysis and jump to conclusions.
Let's imagine PP is scum here, how many days do you think he can get away with? He has to say his night result everyday. There are 4 people he cannot investigate. Himself, implosion, zoro and me. One will get lynched today. That leaves 4 people. He can't pretend to have been RBed. He can't fake a guilty cause we can test his result. How does he explain him not getting killed at night?
Basically there is no way PP is scum.
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Post Post #2665  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:43 pm

In post 2644, boring wrote:
In post 2639, Shadow_step wrote:I'd prefer boring right now.
She tries to throw shade on PP without committing to a stance. Asks for town consensus about PP claim.

I saw his claim and unvoted because that what you're supposed to do when people claim. Am I supposed to welcome into the town fold with open arms after the fake doc claim yesterday? He's been scummy all game, just like LUV.

Anyway, it looks like you're throwing shade at me without committing to a stance because you know you're next in my scum-line, and you might as well get ready for an OMGUS. You follow it up by throwing shade at the guy who comes right after you in my read list. Not very subtle.

PP, you didn't actually expect anyone to pick up on that "breadcrumb", did you? By the way, did you spend the whole game with the knowledge that you were Deputy, or were you informed when Gamma was killed?


Oh really!
Thank you for getting PP off of l-3. I must say that way a extremely pro town of you. </s>
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Post Post #2666  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:49 pm

Shadow, how bout another slice of humble pie?

These last two pages have actually been bearable with you. Until now.

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Post Post #2667  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:51 pm

In post 2648, boring wrote:
In post 2579, Shadow_step wrote:@boring #2571

How does believing a claim make me scum? what is your argument here? I don't get it at all.

I'll try to explain in more detail.

It's not the fact that you believed his claim that is fishy to me. It's that you stated intent to hammer because, and I quote,
In post 2085, Shadow_step wrote:I want to lock LUV into a claim, I think he is also scum.


If that was your thinking, your purpose, then why would you take it entirely at face value? It makes the whole thing seem staged, like "okay little buddy, time for you to claim now"...

The next quote I mentioned, aside from indicating your belief, added what looked like a slip.
In post 2092, Shadow_step wrote:Brilliant, all the lynch baits got all the good PRs :/


Because again, why is this a thing worthy of " :/ "? If all the "lynch baits" can be established as conf. town, that's good news. That is, unless your "scum hunt" is just a hunt for easy mislynches.

p-edit: I'll look through your interactions with Gamma around the claim, and see if it looks congruent with the deputy claim. Were you offered a read last night, since Gamma died, or is it supposed to start tonight?


Do you even understand what the point of locking someone in a claim is ?
Its so that in future if there is an incriminating result on him he can't get out of it by claiming to be a specific PR. Example - if LUV had claimed to be Vanilla and he is seen moving by tracker next night it obviously means he was lying and is scum.

I can't believe I'm explaining you this.
It was ":/" worthy because if the lynch baits didn't have the PRs, the PRs wouldn't have been outed in the first place !!!! Aka easier to catch scum.
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Post Post #2668  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:55 pm

I'm going to ISO maria to figure out why the fuck was she killed n1 itself when there were 2-3 better kills. She was either scum reading the right people or fake PR crumbed. Yea, she scum read LUV but I don't think that's a huge enough reason to kill her straight away.
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Post Post #2669  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:25 am

Zoronos wrote:
I have seen scum do this.
Maybe nobody on *this* board does it (or nobody you've seen), but I absolutely guarantee it happens and is very easy to do.

So. Practice reasonable skepticism and play the game in front of us.

Again, the breadcrumb is just one of many reasons I think he's town. Frankly it's the weakest. The combination of setup spec and my pre-existing townread on him is enough for me to write him off completely even if I ignore the crumb. And again, I don't think pp is experienced enough as scum to fake a crumb and a reaction in the way he did immediately after seeing the cop claim. But again. Beside the point.

Zoronos wrote:If you want me to even begin to agree with a Boring lynch, you should explain to me why in the presence of multiple 'easy' trains yesterday, she stayed locked on LUV.

She played anti-opportunistically. Why do that as scum and instead sit locked on for an unnecessary D2 bus?

Because she'll look scummy if LUV winds up flipping scum later. It's not complicated. With LUV very likely to die before endgame, it's smart play from boring-scum to keep pushing him because it gives her more towncred from his flip. It doesn't matter to her if she's scum whether LUV dies on d2 or later on, but, again, based on his play, he was very likely to die before endgame. And I'll quote boring again on this...
It's really easy to float to day 1 or day 2 in order to give your teammates something to bus, and that matches his behavior.

LUV was basically bus-bait at that point in the game. He wasn't valuable to scum alive because he was generally scummy and continuing to act scummy. Grendel talked about the idea of some scum being the one or ones who are planning to "go deep." In this case, if boring is scum, the plan was for her to get credit from that bus and go deep into the game from that credit.

The way that you're saying she didn't play opportunistically is a very straightforward claim. In a game theoretic sense the optimal scum play is a mixed strategy; sometimes you should defend teammates, sometimes you should stay ambivalent on them, sometimes you should distance, sometimes you should bus. The less often bussing occurs in the meta the more lucrative it becomes as a way of gaining towncred.

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Post Post #2670  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:27 am

In post 2664, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 2657, nn30 wrote:@Implosion - the breadcrumb only implies planning. Scum could have thought ahead - I'm agreeing on the town read but don't rule this out.

Why else is PP town for you?


This is why I keep thinking you are scum. You just do surface level analysis and jump to conclusions.
Let's imagine PP is scum here, how many days do you think he can get away with? He has to say his night result everyday. There are 4 people he cannot investigate. Himself, implosion, zoro and me. One will get lynched today. That leaves 4 people. He can't pretend to have been RBed. He can't fake a guilty cause we can test his result. How does he explain him not getting killed at night?
Basically there is no way PP is scum.

How the hell is saying "breadcrumbing isn't a tell" surface level analysis? The surface-level analysis thing to say would be "he crumbed, he must be town." He is literally explicitly avoiding jumping to a conclusion in the post you quote. I have no idea what the hell you're talking about shadow. He literally says the breadcrumb can't be used to jump to a conclusion and asks for more reasons.

And it's not like he's trying to set up pp for a mislynch if he's scum. He is solidly continuing to state a townread on pp, and is asking me for more reasons to townread him.

I have no clue what you see here.

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Post Post #2671  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:28 am

literally you criticize him for "jumping to a conclusion" and then jump to a conclusion where he didn't. It's a conclusion that I agree with. Coincedentally it's a conclusion that nn also agrees with. but ugh.

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Post Post #2672  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:30 am

Also.
boring wrote:Because again, why is this a thing worthy of " :/ "? If all the "lynch baits" can be established as conf. town, that's good news. That is, unless your "scum hunt" is just a hunt for easy mislynches.

This is really simple. The lynchbaits got the PRs (or at least, shadow thought that they might have), and so we wound up forcing them to claim earlier than would be optimal. Do you really not understand that?

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Post Post #2673  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:40 am

My gut is at boring+dier. My gut really wants to townread grendel's most recent posting. Still trying to substantiate it.

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Post Post #2674  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:49 am

Right, so, the claim and the flipped/claimed roles make very PenguinPower virtually certain to be Town.
I won't be considering theories about a fake claim from Shadow_step today.

At this point, I'm willing to vote for either Grendel or boring. Grendel seems to have the most votes, so my vote stays.
It's also worth noting that, from the teams considered in , Grendel should have been voting for me rather than PenguinPower in . I take this as an indication that Grendel did not actually proceed from reads to votes but rather attempted to fabricate both.

---
@nn30
You said that you prefer to lynch Grendel today, but the most recent VC shows no vote from you.

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