Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

Zoronos
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Post Post #2675  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:17 am

In post 2669, implosion wrote:Again, the breadcrumb is just one of many reasons I think he's town. Frankly it's the weakest. The combination of setup spec and my pre-existing townread on him is enough for me to write him off completely even if I ignore the crumb. And again, I don't think pp is experienced enough as scum to fake a crumb and a reaction in the way he did immediately after seeing the cop claim. But again. Beside the point.


Yeah, that's fine.
Breadcrumbing (and people's reaction to it) is just one of those things that annoy me in mafia games. I agree that it is beside the point. We can debate the relative merits of breadcrumbing in postgame.

I further agree that PP is definitely not today's lynch, as I said earlier.

In post 2669, implosion wrote:Because she'll look scummy if LUV winds up flipping scum later. It's not complicated. With LUV very likely to die before endgame, it's smart play from boring-scum to keep pushing him because it gives her more towncred from his flip. It doesn't matter to her if she's scum whether LUV dies on d2 or later on, but, again, based on his play, he was very likely to die before endgame. And I'll quote boring again on this...


I don't think I agree with this.
Sure, LUV was likely to die before endgame. He was a lurker that had basically no content.
I disagree that it was smart play to push him *when she pushed him*. He could have easily floated another day before she had to leverage the bus play for town cred. She wasn't on the menu D2; she didn't need the extra time that a bus would buy. I could see it D3 or D4, but D2 it just seems... I don't know, excessive? Just seemed unnecessary at that juncture, unless boring was massively overestimating the amount of heat on her.
I understand the value of mixed play; but pushing a team mate off the boat when there's no immediate threat just seems dumb. And so far Boring hasn't struck me as a dumb player.

That said, I did not expect boring's VT claim. I had a back of the head 'tracker' read on her from how the LUV lynch went down. She was full bore on him all day and in hindsight during N2 I thought that was a PR result. Oh well.

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Post Post #2676  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:46 am

I thought implosion was the tracker and was going to blow the game open by ccing those VT claims.
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Post Post #2677  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:28 am

Zoronos wrote:He could have easily floated another day before she had to leverage the bus play for town cred. She wasn't on the menu D2; she didn't need the extra time that a bus would buy.

She easily could have wound up being on the menu; she was the counterwagon to a d1 townflip and I was continuing to push her. She certainly wasn't under no pressure. She wasn't under a ton.
I understand the value of mixed play; but pushing a team mate off the boat when there's no immediate threat just seems dumb. And so far Boring hasn't struck me as a dumb player.

I mean, sometimes doing that is a tenet of mixed play. She may not have been first on the chopping block but she certainly wasn't last. Thinking back it's actually a little odd that I was the only one voting her for most of the day until dier eventually did after she had a 5 person wagon d1. Though I suppose maria and eager were on that wagon and were both dead on d2.

I feel like apart from my feeling like boring has been scummy all game, there is just so much circumstantial evidence for it. None of which is conclusive on its own but taken together it's really incriminating. The four-conftown-and-nn d1 wagon on her. LUV's reads list that lists her and prism as the only non-conftown null players. These really aren't necessarily arguments for her being scum but I think they are pretty decent arguments for (her or nn) and (her or prism) being scum and i'll be damned if the scumteam is nn and prism.

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Post Post #2678  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:30 am

And in addition to that, if she is scum, her transitioning into a bus on LUV is very natural. He was her backup after eager; if she transitioned into the gamma wagon or something like that, it would look unnatural and suspicious if LUV were ever to flip scum.

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Post Post #2679  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:13 am

Official Vote Count 3.18
LynchingWith 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Grendel (3): Zoronos, Dierfire, Prism
boring (2): implosion, PenguinPower
nn30 (1): Shadow_step
Dierfire (1): Grendel

Not Voting (2): nn30, boring

V/LA: Zoronos


Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-14 13:30:00)
Last edited by podoboq on Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Currently looking for reviewers, a backup mod, and a flavor writer for a Magic: the Gathering flavored Large Theme. PM if interested.

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Post Post #2680  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:27 am

In post 764, MariaR wrote:Dear god it's a horse race with boring and LUV

"Here comes boring with bad posts" Oh nvm Luv takes the lead with those reads lists!

WHO'S GONNA WIN MY VOTE!


lol

In post 470, MariaR wrote:Gren is one of my top townreads now mostly because he is saying a lot of what I'm thinking and not just saying it


In post 1356, MariaR wrote:When eager flips town I am power tunneling Dierfire into the ground


I don't get why a scum! Grendel would kill Maria n1. LUV was just a goon, killing off someone who TRs you is sub optimal play.
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Post Post #2681  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:30 am

In post 2673, implosion wrote:My gut is at boring+dier. My gut really wants to townread grendel's most recent posting. Still trying to substantiate it.


Same, I think DF can be in any scum team at this point. Are there any combinations we can strike off because of interactions?

VOTE: DF

Fine with this
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Post Post #2682  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:00 am

I could see Dier/boring. Throws lots of suspicion the entire game, but ultimately is always more suspicious of someone else. Let's put more votes on boring and see what happens given his last statement.

Spoiler:
In post 1299, Dierfire wrote:This isn't a Town read, but it's not a Mafia read and I think that eagerSnake is a better vote than boring.


In post 1662, Dierfire wrote:I'm still assessing whether I'd prefer to vote for Gamma Emerald than for boring.

I guess that for the purpose of clarity I'll put my vote on Gamma Emerald for now.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald



In post 2277, Dierfire wrote:So, I'd like to vote for Grendel or boring today.

VOTE: Grendel


In post 2674, Dierfire wrote:At this point, I'm willing to vote for either Grendel or boring. Grendel seems to have the most votes, so my vote stays.

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Post Post #2683  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:19 am

In post 2671, implosion wrote:literally you criticize him for "jumping to a conclusion" and then jump to a conclusion where he didn't. It's a conclusion that I agree with. Coincedentally it's a conclusion that nn also agrees with. but ugh.


Thanks for saying what I wanted to. Had I said that it would have started another NN v Shadow flame war.

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Post Post #2684  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:24 am

In post 2678, implosion wrote:And in addition to that, if she is scum, her transitioning into a bus on LUV is very natural. He was her backup after eager; if she transitioned into the gamma wagon or something like that, it would look unnatural and suspicious if LUV were ever to flip scum.


I play a lot of Poker - so I see where you're coming from with the 'mixed play' argument. I hadn't considered the possibility until you pointed it out.

However:

Late D1 Boring said that regardless of the Eager flip, she found LUV scummy.

The first thing she did D2 was push LUV.

This series of events is less of a transition and more of a continuation of what she was already doing D1.

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Post Post #2685  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:40 am

This post is regarding Grendel.

First spoiler - this is Grendel explaining why he unvoted me earlier in the day. For the purposes of this exercise I want you to read it and determine, on the basis of this post alone, what Grendel's read on me was at that time: scum, null, or town? Then move onto the second spoiler.

Spoiler:
In post 2372, Grendel wrote:Nn30, Initially I thought your knee jerk reaction to my vote at the start of the day was pretty scummy. But I forgot that you’re new to the site, and it is more a sign of your newness here then straight up scum opportunistic play. Primarily because as scum I don’t think you’d unvote, then put all this effort into thinking about the game state as a whole. If you were scum I’d imagine that you would be perfectly happy to ride me to my death.

I had some serous paranoia about you over the course of night two, but I’m pretty over it now. It was how you went on that tangent at EoD yesterday about serial killers. As a rule of thumb I find players that are paranoid about third party roles with night kill capabilities to be a scum tell. Mainly since a SK would be a threat to scum during the night, and can be leashed by town if found out making them as dangers as a vigilante to the mafia. I guess it sounds silly in this context, but it’s a legitimate tell on the other site I play at... I hope Gamma isn’t taking notes from the dead thread.

There is also the matters of POE on the boring wagon when I came into today, but I’ve lost my initial confidence that boring is town due to associative to another player I think is scum now.

I also don’t think that effort necessarily equals alignment, but I do think that faking the effort you have throughout the game is reflective of somebody with a lot more experience the you seem to actually have. I briefly entertained the idea that you could have more experience then you let on. I recall you playing lots of different games of deception for fun in you submitted RQS answers. But all the tangents you hit throughout the game sound a lot more like somebody who is newer to the game, and in interested in how things work, then somebody experienced. Even the sk thing in retrospect.


Spoiler:
Here's what he has to say about me six days later.
In post 2651, Grendel wrote:Hey Penguin. I know you think I'm scummy, but if you were to assume I were town. Do you think that Deirfire and nn30 are scummy, and have scum chemistry with LUV?


He's very clearly scum reading me IMO. Does this match the read he had on me from the above spoiler quote, in your opinion?

Spoiler:
There's also this. These quotes are only a day apart. On the one hand, this could be his read evolving naturally over the course of time (my reads certainly have). I'm more inclined to believe it's him, as scum, pretending to have reads and the result is that he's inconsistent.

In post 2372, Grendel wrote:
There is also the matters of POE on the boring wagon when I came into today, but I’ve lost my initial confidence that boring is town due to associative to another player I think is scum now.



In post 2433, Grendel wrote:
In post 2380, nn30 wrote:2) What are your feelings on the Boring case?

2) I think that boring is town, but a lot of it is based off of gut, and notes I took yesterday. I don't think I can lynch her.

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Post Post #2686  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:55 am

In post 2638, nn30 wrote:
In post 2636, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 2619, Dierfire wrote:I am also VT.


Out of all the claims, I found this the scummiest.
Like he believes all the people that claimed to be VT before him. Hence the "also".


I posted a while back that I had a bit of a scum read on him as well as why - you might be onto something here.

Does it feel funny to you that I scum read Dierfire as well, given your feelings on me?


@Shadow - I don't believe you've responded to this, and I'd like you to.

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Post Post #2687  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:11 pm

In post 2680, Shadow_step wrote:I don't get why a scum! Grendel would kill Maria n1. LUV was just a goon, killing off someone who TRs you is sub optimal play.


This is another good wrinkle to consider. I'd like to hear more people's thoughts on it, especially Zoronos.

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Post Post #2688  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:29 pm

In post 2687, nn30 wrote:This is another good wrinkle to consider. I'd like to hear more people's thoughts on it, especially Zoronos.


I can see at least five potential lines of play from it.
1) DF is scum and was afraid of Maria. (Maria's last will was that she was going to tunnel DF into the ground if Eager flipped town).
2) Scum believed that the reason Maria was playing very 'head down' during the day phase was because she was a PR. Maria specifically said she didn't like revealing her thinking. Scum may have intuited that as a PR soft and shot her as a result.
3) Scum believed that they could push narrative after the flip based on Maria's reads.
4) Almost nobody was voicing suspicion of Maria at the end of D1, so scum have may shot her because they realized it was going to be really hard to mislynch her later in the game and wanted to clear out a nearly-conf-town player.
5) She mentioned in that she wanted to lynch LUV. She might have been killed to distract from a potential LUV train. Goon or not, scum need bodies to win, so killing someone that scum reads a weaker member of the scum team is a good kill. This same logic could apply to Boring, but we know LUV is scum at this point. Maybe Maria had both right, but we know she had LUV right ergo 'remove a person correctly scum reading LUV' goes on the list.

Basically, imo, there's not enough definitive information here to do effective NK spec. The competing theories all depend on knowing the scum mindset however, which is inherently hidden.

Reading and understanding Maria's thoughts is good, because we know they come from an honest place. But trying to fit in a rubric of scum NK thinking is, imo, a mistake.

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Post Post #2689  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:38 pm

In post 2687, nn30 wrote:
In post 2680, Shadow_step wrote:I don't get why a scum! Grendel would kill Maria n1. LUV was just a goon, killing off someone who TRs you is sub optimal play.


This is another good wrinkle to consider. I'd like to hear more people's thoughts on it, especially Zoronos.

I don't see why it would be sub-optimal. It points away from you, clears the person town-reading you, and then you just have to wait for someone to dig it up on your behalf (can be town or a buddy). It's a lot smarter than leaving a big, messy bloodtrail.

I'm not convinced that this is something Grendel would do or has done. It's just that if S_s could conclude at first that MariaR's NK could be used to frame me, I don't understand why he can't see this.

p-edit: Zoronos - space ninja, scourge of the seven seas!

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Post Post #2690  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:41 pm

Can we just double lynch boring and DF.
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Post Post #2691  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:43 pm

In post 2689, boring wrote:
In post 2687, nn30 wrote:
In post 2680, Shadow_step wrote:I don't get why a scum! Grendel would kill Maria n1. LUV was just a goon, killing off someone who TRs you is sub optimal play.


This is another good wrinkle to consider. I'd like to hear more people's thoughts on it, especially Zoronos.

I don't see why it would be sub-optimal. It points away from you, clears the person town-reading you, and then you just have to wait for someone to dig it up on your behalf (can be town or a buddy). It's a lot smarter than leaving a big, messy bloodtrail.

I'm not convinced that this is something Grendel would do or has done. It's just that if S_s could conclude at first that MariaR's NK could be used to frame me, I don't understand why he can't see this.

p-edit: Zoronos - space ninja, scourge of the seven seas!


You are reading something else, interpreting something else, posting something else. Did you understand what I said?
You have played a lot of game as scum. Have you killed people town reading you on the first chance you got ?
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Post Post #2692  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:50 pm

In post 2686, nn30 wrote:
In post 2638, nn30 wrote:
In post 2636, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 2619, Dierfire wrote:I am also VT.


Out of all the claims, I found this the scummiest.
Like he believes all the people that claimed to be VT before him. Hence the "also".


I posted a while back that I had a bit of a scum read on him as well as why - you might be onto something here.

Does it feel funny to you that I scum read Dierfire as well, given your feelings on me?


@Shadow - I don't believe you've responded to this, and I'd like you to.


I don't find it funny(?)
Are you saying I should TR you because you find DF scummy?
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Post Post #2693  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:01 pm

In post 2688, Zoronos wrote:
In post 2687, nn30 wrote:This is another good wrinkle to consider. I'd like to hear more people's thoughts on it, especially Zoronos.


I can see at least five potential lines of play from it.
1) DF is scum and was afraid of Maria. (Maria's last will was that she was going to tunnel DF into the ground if Eager flipped town).
2) Scum believed that the reason Maria was playing very 'head down' during the day phase was because she was a PR. Maria specifically said she didn't like revealing her thinking. Scum may have intuited that as a PR soft and shot her as a result.
3) Scum believed that they could push narrative after the flip based on Maria's reads.
4) Almost nobody was voicing suspicion of Maria at the end of D1, so scum have may shot her because they realized it was going to be really hard to mislynch her later in the game and wanted to clear out a nearly-conf-town player.
5) She mentioned in that she wanted to lynch LUV. She might have been killed to distract from a potential LUV train. Goon or not, scum need bodies to win, so killing someone that scum reads a weaker member of the scum team is a good kill. This same logic could apply to Boring, but we know LUV is scum at this point. Maybe Maria had both right, but we know she had LUV right ergo 'remove a person correctly scum reading LUV' goes on the list.

Basically, imo, there's not enough definitive information here to do effective NK spec. The competing theories all depend on knowing the scum mindset however, which is inherently hidden.

Reading and understanding Maria's thoughts is good, because we know they come from an honest place. But trying to fit in a rubric of scum NK thinking is, imo, a mistake.


Point 1 is what I have said.
Point 2 I can consider.
Point 3 wifom kills generally don't happen this early. Especially not when you have plenty of ML baits.
Point 4 meh, I don't really think that's plausible. Maria is definitely not hard to ML as town.
Point 5. Neither is she THAT convincing enough to get LUV lynched.

I'm talking from my exp on this site so far, call it site meta.
Scum kill in this order
1. Said player is a renowned strong town player.
2. Said player is suspicious about them and is capable enough of lynching them by co-ordinating the town.
3. Said player possibly has a PR
4. Said player is suspicious of them.
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Post Post #2694  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:04 pm

What I'd like everyone to do is, iso themselves and post what their day 1 reads were(roughly even). It would help in NK analysis.
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Post Post #2695  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:12 pm

@Implosion - good point. Not enough info to draw definitive conclusions from.

@Shadow - My scum read predates your scum read on him (as well as everyone else's - I was the first person to move him from '???' to 'scum read' - but that's beside the point.) Let's look at the four possibilities for mine and Dier's alignments as well as my feelings on the likelihood of each of them.

Scum!Dier + Scum!Nn30 - In what world do I, as scum, intentionally lead the discussion of Dier into 'he's possible scum' territory before everyone else? I find this highly unlikely - especially since neither of us were experiencing any pressure at the time of my initial scum read. Don't go all conspiracy theorist on me here, either. I have no idea how town would react to this play. Use occam's razor.

Scum!Dier + Town!Nn30 - I'm a towny picking up on scum reads, I voice them.
Town!Dier + scum!Nn30 - I'm a scummy pretending to pick up on scum reads, I voice them.

Town!Dier + Town! Nn30 - I'm a towny picking up on scum reads, I voice them. My scum read is incorrect.

Here's the point I'm trying to get across to you with this line of reasoning. It is unlikely that both Dier and I are scum together. Therefore, either we're both town or one of us is scum. At most one of us is scum - which means you're wrong about one of us. I'm also trying to imply that the person you're incorrect about is myself, but that's open to your as well as the town's interpretation.


P-edit - I'm not going that do that Shadow. NK analysis of D1 is largely a waste of time. It hinges on knowing how scum will behave. Let's spend the time we have on things with a higher likelihood of being useful, please?

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Post Post #2696  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:10 pm

In post 2691, Shadow_step wrote:You have played a lot of game as scum. Have you killed people town reading you on the first chance you got ?

Yes. First two chances, actually, if you include the D1 lynch. viewtopic.php?f=50&t=67031

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Post Post #2697  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:29 pm

Hmm...

I ISO'd Dierfire to take a look at who he has voted for, and when. I found that, when only considering who he votes for (and ignoring his thoughts about the game), he's very conservative. I found exactly one instance of him putting a vote somewhere which was an unpopular opinion - and it's a pretty damning 'one and only' instance as well.

Aside from RVS, he was:

4th to join a wagon on PP (post 351). At the time of his vote, Penguin was the leading vote with 3 votes compared to the 2 of Zoronos and Gamma Emerald.
4th to join the Eager wagon (post 1297). At the time of this vote, Boring was the leading wagon with 4 votes and Dier's vote tied the wagons.
3rd to join the Gamma Emerald wagon (post 1662). At the time of this vote, LUV and Gamma each had 2 votes. Dier's vote puts Gamma 1 vote above LUV.
3rd to join the Grendel wagon (post 2277). At the time of this vote, I was tied for leading wagon at 2 votes. Dier's vote puts Grendel in the lead with 3.

In fact, the only time he stuck his neck out was when he voted for Boring in post 2070 (I'm defining 'sticking one's neck out' as doing something away from town consensus.) At this time LUV had 5 votes compared to the next highest wagon of Penguin Power with 2 votes. His vote put boring from 0 to 1 votes.

Here's the full post of this instance:

Spoiler:
In post 2070, Dierfire wrote:I've read through both PenguinPower and Lil Uzi Vert again. I don't find the depth of analysis that I find in other players (Prism, Zoronos, Grendel). In general I'd characterize this as not making effort to solve the game, which is suspicious.
I suppose that, if I trusted my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel, I'd start lynching by POE and drop a hammer on Lil Uzi Vert, but I'm reluctant to do so for two reasons.
First, the wagon on Shadow_step after the claim yesterday does not strike me as the sort of place to find a high density of Mafia players (it would have been far easier to vote for eagerSnake). This means that Lil Uzi Vert (and nn30) should be less suspicious than the other players I'm having difficulty reading (boring, PenguinPower). As a parallel to that, if nn30 is less suspicious, it becomes difficult to see why no suspicious players are voting for boring in the quoted VC.
Second, I don't really trust my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel. I have reasons to read each as Town but I'm simply finding it too good to be true that I've narrowed the Mafia players down so much.

In post 1150, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.26
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

boring (5): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald, nn30
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Prism


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


My vote is for boring. I haven't seen many good reasons to read her as Mafia, but I've seen none to read her as Town and I think that the VC shows, at a minimum, Mafia players avoiding her wagon.

VOTE: boring


Some of the town have pointed out that it's textbook scum play to say 'I scum read my partner for these reasons, but here's why I'm voting elsewhere.'


For the moment, I'm actually more interested than a Dier lynch than a Grendel lynch.

VOTE: Dierfire

If he flips scum I'm going to need to reprocess my current reads because it means I'm making some incorrect assumptions.

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Post Post #2698  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:53 pm

@Boring - what do you think of Dier right now?

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Post Post #2699  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:01 pm

I'm still busier than usual and can't make the responses I want today but quick notes:

-nn30 is either a god or town. I'm an atheist, I think it's the latter.
-I haven't reread to see if PP is real but I believe Implosion's site meta. if he is, lynching red today should give us town auto which would be pretty sick. Only way I could see to avoid it is if scum has a strongman.
-I don't get most people's reaction to Grendel, the past few pages of his are all over the place and it reads as trying to dodge autoloss at any cost.

@Implosion: If Grendel flips red do you still consider me a possibility?

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