Micro 658 - Frozen [Game over]

[Postie]

VOTE: MagnaOfIllusion

Predecessor was 5edgy3me.

[Postie]

If the person who knows elsa is chosen to live, and Elsa lives, they will be clear

There are two assassins and they win if Elsa dies.

[Postie]

I'd wager our biggest threat here isn't Elsa telling her identity to the scum but Elsa either giving away her identity by acting weird or telling her identity to someone who gives away who she is.

Elsa needs to:

• tell her identity to someone that is both extremely likely to be town and has an appropriate level of experience so as to not give the game away
  
• not give her identity away by being overly coast-y or withdrawn

Anyone who's notified of Elsa's identity needs to:

• not suddenly lessen or completely drop any suspicions they previously held towards the slot
  
• continue interacting with the slot to the same degree as they did before

[Postie]

IIRC Lohikäärme's has played Mafia before but not for a while so I'd put him off the table for now. Dunnstral I would trust not to screw things up. A Simple Plan, Parama, and MagnaofIllusion seem to have a fair bit of experience but I haven't played with them before so I can't comment on their abilities. Aristophanes and Cakez are probably sub-optimal choices, but also not terrible. lane0168 I would avoid. I'd put myself just above Aristo/Cakez. Either way Dunnstral's usually obvtown as town so we'll probably be going there first if he rolled town this game.

[Postie]

It's not "risky" it's just based on a misunderstanding of how this set-up works.

[Postie]

If the person who knows elsa is chosen to live, and Elsa lives, they will be clear

There are two assassins and

they win if Elsa dies

.

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[Postie]

Dunnstral your thought process here makes no sense. What did you think the point of protecting Elsa from dying was if not that it made town lose???

[Postie]

Oh. I may have misunderstood slightly.
Give me a minute to process things.

[Postie]

Alright so basically your strategy is to have the people who know Elsa's identity claim that they do to confirm them as town, and then have them decide the lynches?

In which case:
a) Why is having a single conftown be the sole decider of a lynch a good idea? What if they're a terrible Mafia player?
b) If everyone who knows Elsa's identity claims, the Mafia now know exactly which people's behaviour they need to monitor to find out who Elsa is.

[Postie]

Elsa could target someone, claim to have been targeted, then lynch their target

What?

[Postie]

But why would we gladiator this when we could... not do that?

[Postie]

Still doable. Elsa could target someone, claim to have been targeted, then lynch their target

I'm just saying hypothetically scum can't assume anything and this plan allows for strategic diversity

AND THIS LITERALLY GIVES AWAY ELSA TO THE SCUM IF HER TARGET IS TOWN

DUDE. CHILL. JUST ACCEPT THAT YOUR PLAN SUCKS OK?

Oh I see Dunn was trying to say now. Lmao.

[Postie]

Then don't Elsa visit them?

What if Elsa is a terrible decision-maker?

[Postie]

Why avoid me?

I know I've only played one game with you but my gut says you'd have a high probability of inadvertently giving away who Elsa is.

And that's funny, I just got out of a game where people said Dunnstral scum and town game is almost identical. You must have a good way of reading him but I've never seen him be obvi town when he's town

Have played 2 games with Dunn. He was obvtown for ~reasons~ in at least one of those games to an extent I don't see him being able to fake, and on the verge of obvtown in the other. But I'll bear that in mind and make sure not to relax my standards.

[Postie]

@lane0168

- Thoughts on gamestate and/or strategy?

[Postie]

VOTE: lane0168

[Postie]

Dunn, you can't just appoint yourself as town leader. Your plan means nothing if no one follows it.

[Postie]

LANE CONTINUES HAVING NOTHING USEFUL TO SAY, YET CONTINUES SAYING STUFF ANYWAYS

I answered your question, responded to a vote on me, and asked for clarification. What the fuck are you on about? Are you expecting something profound for page 3 or what is this shit?

What's your read on Dunn and Parama? What's your opinion on strategy?

[Postie]

They will be following it by tomorrow.

All that's left to decide is whether we kill or not today. What do you think?

I think your plan is atrocious and no one will follow it.

Why don't we vote on it?

I vote no.

[Postie]

IIRC Lohikäärme's has played Mafia before but not for a while so I'd put him off the table for now. Dunnstral I would trust not to screw things up. A Simple Plan, Parama, and MagnaofIllusion seem to have a fair bit of experience but I haven't played with them before so I can't comment on their abilities. Aristophanes and Cakez are probably sub-optimal choices, but also not terrible. lane0168 I would avoid. I'd put myself just above Aristo/Cakez. Either way Dunnstral's usually obvtown as town so we'll probably be going there first if he rolled town this game.

This is a large amount of verbiage that says basically nothing of use. You draw no useful conclusions on a course of action.

I've quite clearly stated which players I think should and shouldn't be considered to be Elsa'd if they're townread, to the best of my ability for page 1.
Did the formatting confuse you?

Good - Dunnstral
Not bad - Me, Aristophanes, Cakez
Bad - Lane, Lohi
Don't know - A Simple Plan, Parama, You

Better?

[Postie]

@Postie

- since you are so quick to ask others about their reads ...

What are your reads on Dunn and Parama?

Dunn lean town. No read on Parama.

[Postie]

I disagree with your assessment on Dunn - we recently played an Arena game where he was Town and I was scum and he didn't do a very good job of looking Town in a situation much like he is advocating in his plan. He as a fairly easy mislynch that game where scum didn't have a Nightkill. So at best I think he belongs in Not Bad even if he's Town.

The ranking is purely about how likely or not they would be to give away Elsa's identity somehow, and it isn't supposed to say any more than that. The towniness of a player is an entirely different consideration, and I'll have a different ranking later on in the game that incorporates both factors.

So I'm having to decide whether this disconnect is alignment indicative or not.

Why would it be?

[Postie]

HELLO PARAMA I DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU ARE SAYING COULD YOU EXPLAIN A BIT BETTER.

[Postie]

What's your read on Dunn and Parama? What's your opinion on strategy?

@Postie

- since you are so quick to ask others about their reads ...

What are your reads on Dunn and Parama?

BOTH OF THESE ARE BAD POSTS

@Postie

- since you are so quick to ask others about their reads ...

What are your reads on Dunn and Parama?

Dunn lean town. No read on Parama.

I UNDERSTAND IT'S YOUR FAULT FOR ASKING THE BAD QUESTION IN THE FIRST PLACE BUT YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE ANSWERED THIS

THIS IS WHAT I AM CONFUSED ABOUT CAN YOU ELABORATE SO I CAN ANSWER AND ASK LESS BAD QUESTIONS IN FUTURE THANK YOU.

[Postie]

#2: I explained that Elsa could theoretically claim to have been visited themself.

Theoretically yes but she wouldn't do that

because then we would be guaranteed to lose

.

[Postie]

*almost guaranteed

[Postie]

Don't assume scum would kil confirmed town. Maybe, even probably n1 they would. After that; realize that they're also "confirmed" as not Elsa

It's not about who scum kills. If Elsa picks a townie,

we lose no matter who gets lynched

.

[Postie]

I'm not saying Elsa would actually visit themself

Then what is the point?

[Postie]

POSTIE SEE THIS

I WOULD SUGGEST EVERYONE PLAY THIS GAME LIKE THEY WERE SCUM. I DON'T WANT TO SEE ANY CASES AND PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP THEIR READS CLOSE TO THEIR CHEST.

Oh. Then how do we decide who to lynch and who to Elsa?

[Postie]

I LITERALLY HAVE NO CLUE WHAT DUNN IS TRYING TO ARGUE FOR ANYMORE SO I'M JUST GOING TO IGNORE HIM

Good idea I'll join you.

[Postie]

ELSA DECIDES WHO TO ELSA. THAT'S EASY.

I don't trust half this playerlist not to have godawful reads though.

[Postie]

EVEN IF WE ALL COLLECTIVELY VOTE ON WHO ELSA SHOULD PICK, THEY ARE UNDER NO OBLIGATION TO FOLLOW THE TOWN'S CONSENSUS, SO THERE'S NOT REALLY ANY POINT IN DISCUSSING IT

Yes but I like to think they wouldn't be arrogant enough to reveal their identity to someone that the town has agreed is a terrible person to reveal their identity to. They may also simply not be sure who would make a good choice and appreciate the help.

[Postie]

THE OTHER ISSUE IS THAT 25% OF THE TOWN IS SCUM, AND THUS 25% OF THAT CONSENSUS WILL BE SCUM DRIVEN. SCUM WANT EITHER THEMSELVES OR THEIR PARTNER TO BE TARGETED AND CAN DRIVE THE CONSENSUS IN THAT DIRECTION

Scum have just as much influence in a regular game with regular lynches, but no one ever delegates all decisions to an innocent child when there's one in the game.

[Postie]

Unless, you know, they pick scum to lynch

Which they're unlikely to.

[Postie]

Oh shit sorry I said I'd ignore Dunnstral.

[Postie]

AND AN INNOCENT CHILD IS NOT THE ONE SUBMITTING THE NIGHT ACTIONS IN A NORMAL GAME

And? My point was that you don't just leave one towny to make all the decisions, even if it risks scum influence, because one towny by themselves is generally terrible.

[Postie]

To be fair, they will have to do so eventually if the game continues for any length. Or, the town could be totally wrong. I agree that Elsa will need to use a lot of caution, but I wouldn't necessarily call it arrogance for Elsa to choose someone against popular opinion.

If the whole town agrees that someone is being scummy as fuck and you decide to pick that person to Elsa, you are being arrogant.

[Postie]

You know what I'm tired I'm going to leave this game alone for the night and come back once everyone else has checked in with their thoughts.

[Postie]

Then the post was your subjective opinion that didn’t need posted. Just the process of Dunn bringing up his plan should put every non-VI in the game on alert about how to handle the situation. And I don’t see any Vis on the playerlist to my experience.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

Because any discontinuity between how a Town player is thinking and what they observe in others should be considered for the possibility it is scum trying to fake being Town. Doesn’t mean it has to be (playstyle, etc) signs of scum but should not be ignored. This is pretty basic Mafia gameplay stuff Postie.

I guess. It just sounded like you considered me disagreeing with you scummy, which didn't make any sense.

Buddying up to Parama pretty hard I see …

In what way is any of what I said buddying? And how is buddying alignment indicative?

[Postie]

OH YEAH BY THE WAY ALL CLAIMS ARE HAPPENING AT L-2 WITH INTENT TO VOTE GIVEN, TO MINIMIZE ANY CHANCE OF SCUM QUICKHAMMERING AN ELSA CLAIM

This is a good point.

[Postie]

Yeah this looks good.

Nice 1 Aristo + Parama

[Postie]

So it's not a reads list? MOI's point seems a lot more valid if you're not even trying for reads.

What made you think it was a readslist, especially since it was page 1 and I gave "reads" on players that hadn't posted yet? And how does this affect what MoI was saying?

[Postie]

@magna, good point, I didn't realize there are two night kills if they don't target Elsa.

I sure hope not. That would be way overpowered for scum. I don't think that's what Magna was saying.

[Postie]

Cool. Why's he scummy?

[Postie]

So... he's just null then? Okay. Come pressure lane with me.

[Postie]

Alright: I think you're scummy. Fite me.

[Postie]

That's some nice set-up spec who's scum

[Postie]

Aristo, I appreciate the humour but you're almost as bad as lane at this point.

Tell me

Who are we lynching today?

[Postie]

lol

Can we lynch lane now

[Postie]

Everyone has done almost nothing alignment indicative

Also this isn't true at all

[Postie]

lol

[Postie]

Magna did you just pick my name out of a hat and decide that was gonna be your tunnel target
Because that's what it feels like.

[Postie]

He claimed Not Elsa so obviously I'm not scumreading him anymore. Before that, I was scumreading him because all of his posts amounted to "hurr durr I don't know what's going on" and fluff that was superficially game-relevant but actually did nothing to move the game forward (e.g. 38, 40), all of which felt like a disingenuous attempt at looking like he was playing the game while actually not doing so.

[Postie]

Also, you really think scum would claim Elsa day 1?

We're not not lynching Not Elsa claims, so yes.

Not to mention the hypocrisy, Postie, you should realize I've done just as much as you to move the game forward. Which I'll agree is next to nothing

First off, no, and secondly, by complaining like this you're continuing to do exactly nothing to move the game forward, so you can join Dunn on my ignore list until further notice unless you can come up with something genuinely helpful to contribute.

[Postie]

And yet you are still voting him ...

We're not not lynching Not Elsa claims

[Postie]

Oh and I'm scumreading MoI btw. I was ehhh about what if I'm right and get killed and can't push for his lynch tomorrow but I just remembered that's not how we're playing the game so it doesn't really matter I think. Unless scum!MoI would be worried about me convincing Elsa to visit him if kept alive but whatever I can do that now.

I'm having a hard time buying that he believes his own reasons for supposedly scumreading me. I don't think a townie would be so confbiased so early on that they'd just keep mindlessly reading into absolutely anything. Like I'm struggling to see a genuine thought process behind what he's doing that doesn't involve starting with the conclusion "Postie is scum" and working backwards from it.
Idk I'm probably not explaining this very well but I'm hoping if you read over how his read on me evolved you'll see what I'm saying.

[Postie]

Somebody tell me

Are we going with aristophanes plan or no? I know we're not doing mine

This is the plan:

ANYWAYS HERE ARE THE RULES:

1. ELSA DOES NOT CLAIM UNLESS IN DANGER OF LYNCH

2. ALL NON-ELSA CLAIMS WILL BE LYNCHED. ALL TOWN WILL CLAIM THEIR TRUE ROLE

3. ELSA SHOULD TARGET SOMEONE THEY FEEL IS LIKELY TO BE SCUM

[Postie]

so if lane were scum claiming elsa day 1 would be a real fast way to lose the game anyways

So he could have hoped that this claim would save him


On the other hand, I personally believe he's more likely to be town

But I think his claim was real dumb. The l-2 thing is so scum can't quickhammer easily. You're not elsa so you shouldn't worry so much about claiming at l-2 (and there were no other intentions to vote you)

IT DOESN'T MATTER IF HE'S TOWN OR NOT
All Not Elsa claims are lynched. That's the whole point. That's how we're playing the game.

[Postie]

That's what we're trying to do.

Self-vote?

[Postie]

360 no scope ayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[Postie]

A Simple Plan was shot for his "HEY SCUM LOOK AT ME I'M TOTALLY NOT ELSA" thing.
You know exactly what I'm talking about, ASP.

[Postie]

I'm fine with the PT being released; Lohi may or may not have siteflaked so I don't know if you'll get a response from him. He only said two words in the PT though so I don't expect him to have a problem with releasing it.

[Postie]

Oh, btw, ASP, what was this about...?

Actually I would probably avoid calling tons of attention to it because of -reasons-, of which I'm not on board for a Postie lynch d1 as of this post.

[Postie]

Yeah, the endgame flavour cracked me up. Nice work, FakeGod.

[Postie]

Tbh, I think the only thing that perhaps caused something resembling me and Parama becoming buddied to each other was you scumreading both of us while we were both frustrated with you.

[Postie]

The strategy was to lynch whoever Elsa revealed to (in this case, Parama), so you wouldn't have been able to.

[Postie]

My dreams are usually more accurate at predicting alignments than I am.

[Postie]

You mean on strategy? I think I would have done that as town too, because what he was suggesting made sense to me. If I was buddying him, it certainly wasn't intentional.