Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

Dierfire
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Post Post #2700  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:43 pm

@nn30
I've three comments about your analysis of my voting patterns.
First, I will argue that voting for a leading wagon (adding the fourth vote to PenguinPower when he was already leading with three votes), voting for a tied wagon (adding a third vote to Gamma Emerald when he was tied with Lil Uzi Vert with two votes, adding a third vote to Grendel when he was tied with you with two votes), and voting to bring a wagon to a tie (adding a fourth vote to eagerSnake to tie boring) are three different patterns. The second one in particular is almost the opposite of voting for a consensus candidate.
Second, I will argue that I am always diligent about giving reasons for my votes so that they carry more information than just the position on the wagon. Do you have any comment about the reasons that I gave for my votes?
Third, I am wondering why the vote on boring seems incriminating to you.

podoboq
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Post Post #2701  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:45 pm

Official Vote Count 3.19
LynchingWith 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Grendel (3): Zoronos, Dierfire, Prism
Dierfire (3): Grendel, Shadow_step, nn30
boring (2): implosion, PenguinPower

Not Voting (1): boring

V/LA: Zoronos


Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-14 13:30:00)
Last edited by podoboq on Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Currently looking for reviewers, a backup mod, and a flavor writer for a Magic: the Gathering flavored Large Theme. PM if interested.

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Post Post #2702  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:50 pm

@Dier - I apologize for not making this clear in my original post. This is my fault.

The pattern I noticed was a lack of something - the willingness to start wagons on new people. It indicates that you are adding steam to where town is already heading, but unwilling to lead it in a new direction. This pattern is more likely to come from scum (who are incentivized to remain under the radar) than town.

The vote on Boring is scummy - not because it is on Boring (I would feel how I do regardless of who you voted for) - but because it wasn't on LUV and came at a time that indicates you could have been attempting to distract from the LUV wagon.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, you expressed reasons for scum reading LUV but never found yourself on his wagon.

As for the effort you put into your thoughts and posts, I see it and acknowledge it. If you're town I appreciate it even. However, if I'm under the assumption that you are scum (which I am right now) your votes mean monumentally more than your words.

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Post Post #2703  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:52 pm

On mobile right now. I can comment on the reasons you gave for votes later.

boring
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Post Post #2704  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:03 pm

In post 2698, nn30 wrote:@Boring - what do you think of Dier right now?

If Penguin is really just town with a scummy playstyle, then Shadow and Dier are next in my lineup.

Dier is my #2 scum read at the moment, and I think it's possible for them to be the two remaining scum. I'm lacking time to dig, but I can't recall them really having much, if anything to do with one another. Certainly nothing worth writing off the possibility of a scum team. So while I'd rather lynch Shadow first, I could vote Dierfire.
Spoiler:
inB4 Shadow realizes Dierfire might actually get lynched, and makes an excuse to hop off the wagon.

Speaking of which,
VOTE: Shadow_step

In post 2699, Prism wrote:-I don't get most people's reaction to Grendel, the past few pages of his are all over the place and it reads as trying to dodge autoloss at any cost.

I'm not seeing it. When you have more time, can you explain what you mean?

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Post Post #2705  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:12 pm

Shadowstep and Dier over Grendel?

I am going to speculate that this means you think Grendel is town?

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Post Post #2706  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:21 pm

In post 2705, Zoronos wrote:Shadowstep and Dier over Grendel?

I am going to speculate that this means you think Grendel is town?

I think Grendel's more likely town than either of them. If Penguin is out of the pool, then my scum list is Shadow>Dier>Grendel>nn30>Prism

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Post Post #2707  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:22 pm

Actually, I think nn30 and Prism could switch places. I keep going back and forth.

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Post Post #2708  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:23 pm

In post 2706, boring wrote:
In post 2705, Zoronos wrote:Shadowstep and Dier over Grendel?

I am going to speculate that this means you think Grendel is town?

I think Grendel's more likely town than either of them. If Penguin is out of the pool, then my scum list is Shadow>Dier>Grendel>nn30>Prism

In post 2707, boring wrote:Actually, I think nn30 and Prism could switch places. I keep going back and forth.

Shadow>Dier>Grendel>nn30=Prism

Sorry for the spammy posts.

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Post Post #2709  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:28 pm

In post 2704, boring wrote:Speaking of which,
VOTE: Shadow_step

Do you actually think there's any chance shadow will be lynched today, at this point?
If no, why vote him?
If yes, how?

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Post Post #2710  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:46 pm

I'm focusing on the posts which encompass your not voting for LUV. I'd like an explanation from you regarding them.

Spoiler:
In post 2070, Dierfire wrote:1)I've read through both PenguinPower and Lil Uzi Vert again. I don't find the depth of analysis that I find in other players (Prism, Zoronos, Grendel). In general I'd characterize this as not making effort to solve the game, which is suspicious.
2)I suppose that, if I trusted my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel, I'd start lynching by POE and drop a hammer on Lil Uzi Vert, but I'm reluctant to do so for two reasons.
First, the wagon on Shadow_step after the claim yesterday does not strike me as the sort of place to find a high density of Mafia players (it would have been far easier to vote for eagerSnake). This means that Lil Uzi Vert (and nn30) should be less suspicious than the other players I'm having difficulty reading (boring, PenguinPower). As a parallel to that, if nn30 is less suspicious, it becomes difficult to see why no suspicious players are voting for boring in the quoted VC.
Second, I don't really trust my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel. I have reasons to read each as Town but I'm simply finding it too good to be true that I've narrowed the Mafia players down so much.

In post 1150, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.26
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

boring (5): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald, nn30
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Prism


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


My vote is for boring. I haven't seen many good reasons to read her as Mafia, but I've seen none to read her as Town and I think that the VC shows, at a minimum, Mafia players avoiding her wagon.

VOTE: boring


1) You give a reason to scum read LUV
2) You explain why you aren't voting him

Spoiler:
In post 2194, Dierfire wrote:I believe the claim from Zoronos with a fair degree of certainty (it makes him at least as likely to be Town as Shadow_step).
1)I disbelieve the claim from Lil Uzi Vert for a few reasons. First, as Zoronos becomes more likely to be Town, my confidence in POE from earlier increases, which makes Lil Uzi Vert more likely to be Mafia at baseline. Second, the vote for Zoronos makes more sense from a Mafia player who claimed Doctor than from an actual Town Doctor (the latter has little reason to suspect that a Mafia player wants him lynched immediately rather than killed by Night, particularly at the cost of countering the claim).
2)I could think of two potential reasons to leave Lil Uzi Vert alive. First, if if Lil Uzi Vert is actually a Town Doctor, it would potentially allow Gamma Emerald another action. However, I'm inclined to think that the combination of Doctor and Cop, besides being rare, would likely have a Mafia role to counter this interaction. Therefore I think that this is not a good reason to leave Lil Uzi Vert alive. It does open one other long shot; if we lynch a player who flips with a role like Mafia Strongman or Mafia Roleblocker, the Doctor claim would be much more believable.


1) You don't believe the claim from LUV.
2) You present a reason for leaving him alive anyway.


Spoiler:
In post 2197, Dierfire wrote:@Lil Uzi Vert
Your vote for Zoronos is fairly bad. I could perhaps be persuaded that it's wise to defer a decision on your lynch today, but I'd need a good lynch option and Zoronos is not that.


Again, you present a reason to not like LUV, yet you don't vote him.


Spoiler:
Penguin hammered shortly after this. However, given how you felt about him leading up to this it's strange that you never hopped onto his wagon. The 'I scum read LUV but let's not vote him and here's why' is definitely more than a little hinky feeling.

Let's compare your treatment of LUV to your treatment of Eager.

Spoiler:
In post 1297, Dierfire wrote:All right, I've caught up.

I am virtually certain that Shadow_step has the Ascetic modifier, regardless of alignment (he was clearly setting up to counter the claim as soon as eagerSnake made it), and very confident that Shadow_step is Town (Mafia has low incentive to counter the claim). With eagerSnake, I was half expecting him to withdraw the claim; the fact that he hasn't rules out some Town plays (Bulletproof or Miller trying to draw the kill were my first thoughts, I also thought of Wary but I don't know if that's common on this site because I can't find it in the Wiki--certainly it's not Normal). It also weighs against some Mafia plays (I agree with the idea that a Mafia Ascetic role is powerful and probably unlikely to claim early without withdrawing the claim later, so I'd find a Mafia Goon more likely).

A few points since the claim make me suspicious of eagerSnake. First, and most obviously, eagerSnake actively resisted attempts by Zoronos ( and others) and nn30 () to provide content that would help us judge his alignment independently of the Ascetic claim. This seems consistent with a Mafia player in significant danger of being lynched and trying to avoid giving associative information (discussion of possible self-vote in is also consistent with that thought process). The vote on implosion in is also strange given that boring is the larger wagon and was the player eagerSnake was most confidently reading as Mafia (I don't see any change from ). Of course, I think that the reasons to vote for boring didn't hold much water in the first place (next post post after next), which is also suspicious (I'm not buying that eagerSnake was simply too uncertain to make a meaningful case--in that event, he should have been working at improving his reads rather than repetitively insisting that he was Town).

UNVOTE: PenguinPower
VOTE: eagerSnake

I want a full claim from eagerSnake.

I saw someone else ask this and get the "fishing" dodge, so to be clear: I am inclined to lynch eagerSnake unless he has some additional reason that we should leave him alive.


There's a lot more confidence in your read on Eager here as well as 0 credence given to Eager's theory that both he and Shadow were town.

Spoiler:
In post 1516, Dierfire wrote:I'm ready for a hammer.

You even ask for a hammer.


Spoiler:
Comparing your ambivalence towards LUV to your confidence in lynching Eager, and I'm just more convinced of my scum theory on you. Your behavior betrays hidden knowledge. Granted, I wasn't on the LUV wagon myself - I think I was a little snowed by him town reading me. So it's possible that you're a townie who was just more sure of Eager than of LUV. At the moment, I'm not inclined to believe that.

I look forward to your response to these things.

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Post Post #2711  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:47 pm

Dier’s tone in general is hard to decider because unlike most players he is capable of treating mafia like a game. So for the most part it’s a little hard to tell what he is thinking beyond what he says openly. Or rather, looking onto his motivations is hard. While this is an issue I’m seeing nothing that really points toward a town!Dier this game, and would like to have him lynched. I also think the best way to divine his alignment would be by looking at what he says about individual players, then who he votes in response. Since there are occasions where he can clearly see a player as suspicious, acknowledge it, and then he votes somebody else instead. I will be paying close attention to this when I look as LUV and Dier together later, (I actually have most of this wrote out, but figured that I should make separate posts)

Things about Dierfire

Spoiler:
In post 35, Dierfire wrote:
In post 31, Zoronos wrote:Only person who has both posted in thread and does not have an RVS vote.


Not the only one!

VOTE: Zoronos


I have had a recurring experience where scum vote somebody whose first posts don’t include a RVS vote. I think its because it’s a good way for scum to look like their advancing the game state with little to no effort.

Spoiler:
In post 351, Dierfire wrote:
The rapid change between (Grendel is either Town playing poorly or Mafia) and (Grendel is Town) is also suspicious to me. While I agree that the last line of sounds more like the kind of thing that Grendel would say as Town than as Mafia, the speed of reversal from the aggression in the earlier posts makes me believe that the aggression was feigned...

...

...I'm out of time for this interval. I'll back in a few hours to discuss why I'm reading implosion, Grendel, and nn30 as Town (I could tentatively add eagerSnake and Zoronos as well).


I originally felt that Dierfire may have been trying to buddy me here. What with his agreeing with my push on Penguin while telling me that I’m town based off of one phrase. In this and in a few posts after I felt like Dierfire was trying to get on my good side. It Could be paranoia though.

Spoiler:
In post 1330, Dierfire wrote:I promise that I will continue to evaluate and update throughout the game. I like to think that I am not inordinately susceptible to confirmation bias, and I always read and try to understand the perspectives even of players that I find suspicious.


While this has largely been true throughout the game. I think that Dairfire has been much happier to sit on his vote on me with little introspection. He has responded to me when ever i brought something new to light, but it dosen’t seem like he is in any hurry to change his mind. E.I. I thought he would become more or less convinced of my alignment. Which is odd considering his reasoning for scum reading me was PoE exclusive until he looked at my interactions with LUV, (Why did he wait so long to do this btw?), and stuff Prism said.

Spoiler:
In post 1351, Dierfire wrote:@Zoronos
In post 1334, Zoronos wrote:So, for the sake of clarity Dierfire, your scum reads are Eager, Gamma, and Penguin? You are further of the opinion that Gamma and Penguin's set of disagreements around the competing trains was theater / scum distancing and that they could be scum together?
Am I understanding this correctly?


Yes, that's correct.
I'm not married to the idea that all three are Mafia together, but I have independent reasons to read each as Mafia, associative reasons to read PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald as partners, and no associative reasons to doubt either as partners for eagerSnake (in fact, perhaps some associative reasons to read Gamma Emerald as a likely partner for eagerSnake given the hops on and off the eagerSnake wagon).

For Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower, I think that their direct reads on each other looked like interactions between Mafia partners. I don't recall many disagreements between them about other players (implosion early in the game, in real time when Gamma Emerald voted for me, and indirectly after Gamma Emerald was considering moving back to eagerSnake); none looked especially difficult to coordinate or unlikely to occur to Mafia partners.


Here Dierfire groups all low hanging players together as a single scum team. It’s not something town wouldn’t do, but it is something that a scum could favor doing. It certainly doesn’t hurt Dier’s connections with LUV, since he doesn’t mention LUV here.

Spoiler:
In post 1659, Dierfire wrote:@implosion
In post 1651, implosion wrote:@dierfire: last think I see you say about boring is that you've read up on her but don't find anything really alignment indicative. What do you think of her after the eager+maria townflips, and/or why don't you agree with my points on her?


Obviously the death of MariaR is a minor point against boring (MariaR was voting for boring), but no more than a minor one.
I still don't see any evidence that she processed the conflict between eagerSnake and Shadow_step in a suspicious manner.

For your points:

You made the point () that you don't see why boring would read eagerSnake as Town for the initial claim. I think that, from a probabilistic perspective, it makes more sense from a Town player claiming legitimately than from a Mafia player making a gamble (this is where I was after the initial claim). Whether that was a reason sufficient to justify the apparent strength of the read given by boring is a matter best answered by boring (I, for example, had eagerSnake as one of my weaker reads); I looked to for an answer and it seemed that boring thought the claim sufficient that eagerSnake would either die or be held in suspicion for living. Therefore none of the reaction from boring to the second claim seemed out of place to me. In fact, of all the players that wanted to lynch eagerSnake after the second claim from Shadow_step, boring had the most prior evidence that her read on eagerSnake was primarily based on the first claim.

You also made the point that boring seemed artificially rather than genuinely unconcerned about the wagon forming on her. To assess this, I would look at her attempts to read those voting for her (if she is genuine that the wagon on her is in part a positive thing because it informs the alignments of players on the wagon, she should show evidence of trying to use that information). She had appropriate questions out to nn30 (, , especially ) and Gamma Emerald (). She appears to have made some attempt to read you as well (, ) and to have revisited Gamma Emerald in . I was hoping to have a deeper analysis from her with the results of those inquiries; I will prompt her directly.

You made the third point () that boring had a "tepid" response () to the suggestion from eagerSnake that we pass on the lynch. It seems clear to me that boring was demonstrating that better play from eagerSnake as Town would have been to push for lynching boring rather than no lynch at all (I don't read "are you suggesting that we give a free kill to the Mafia?" as a serious question but rather as a rhetorical one). I've no problem with the tenor of her response; I acknowledge your argument that it sounds "detached" but find this unpersuasive as a reason to vote for boring.


Another thing is that Dier had posts like this where he looked into boring, but wasn’t sold. I just think the transitions later when he voted boring later came off as forced given he spent so much time being skeptical of the reasons people scum read her. His logic that he doesn’t see anything pointing to town in boring, plus a VC later as enough to justify this move. Especially when he seemed to acknowledge that there were better reasons for going after Penguin or LUV in 1912.

Spoiler:
In post 2277, Dierfire wrote:I'm getting close to committing to POE here.
I have more reasons, but I think that their claims are sufficient to have Shadow_step and Zoronos as Town.
I think that Prism is unlikely to be Mafia given the protracted conflict with Lil Uzi Vert. More powerful than his reasons for voting Lil Uzi Vert is the reaction that Lil Uzi Vert has to those reasons and the way that Prism follows up in conversation. In the quotes below, Prism is pursuing Lil Uzi Vert while Lil Uzi Vert appears to be evading Prism rather than engaging with him, which is an unusual pattern for Mafia partners.

(I delete the quotes because it was a lot to format) -Grendel-

A brief overview of the VC also supports Prism for sticking to Lil Uzi Vert throughout D2 (while I see that boring also does this, I don't trust this alone as proof that boring is Town, because she was nearly lynched D1 and might therefore have seen a need to create some distance).

Therefore, I'm strongly reading implosion, Zoronos, Shadow_step, and Prism as Town.

I next compare the wagon on boring in with that on PenguinPower in . PenguinPower receives votes from all other players outside my Town pool; boring receives a vote only from nn30. I would vote for boring before I would vote for PenguinPower.

I'm ambivalent about nn30; certainly the D1 VC were suspicious if boring is Town, but nn30 spends a lot of time on the wagons of players in my POE lynching pool and I don't find the Shadow_step wagon after his claim a likely place for two Mafia players to stack. At any rate I will say that nn30 should not be Mafia with boring (because nn30 and Lil Uzi Vert should not have been stacking on Shadow_step in if eagerSnake is the main alternative to boring). I also may want to rule out a team of nn30 and PenguinPower based on the VC in (if nn30 were to vote for a partner, the one about to be lynched makes more sense).

So, I'd like to vote for Grendel or boring today.

VOTE: Grendel

His voting me while simultaneously saying that his only reason to scum read me is PoE implies that his read on me is weak (2277). Yet I don’t think he did much to further justify this read until much more recently today. I really don’t see Dier point out anything that looks like total Scum!Grendel to him when he deiced to vote me at the start of today, this makes me think that he knows I’m town. I want to stress that he did little to reinforce this read until others (me) asked for elaboration. If anything he thought me being jailed last night should be a point against me being mafia.

Spoiler:
In post 2559, Dierfire wrote:@Grendel
In post 2460, Grendel wrote:I meant to ask this earlier, but do you know if our mod had knowledge of 1809?

I feel like most people are viewing this as a left felid theory, and I want something to reel them into the possibility that Shadow is scum. I am interested in any further considerations you have for me.

You said that your vote on me was PoE, have you found anything beyond that since?

I don't know whether the Mod had any knowledge of that game. On further consideration, though, I'm not sure that any was needed. If your theory is that Shadow_step has a Mafia Ascetic role, the Roleblocker function is not necessary to explain the decision to kill Gamma Emerald, right? In fact, I'd think that a Mafia team with an Ascetic Roleblocker (and one capable of killing and blocking by night according to the opening post) could get away with either action, whereas a Mafia team with an Ascetic Goon would be more likely to go after the claimed Cop.

Anyway, I've reviewed the Shadow_step again, and while to a certain degree I agree with the ideas that he has been playing in an unhelpful manner, I think that his claim is more likely to come from a Town Ascetic role than a Mafia Ascetic role. At this point, the only thing that would make me want to lynch Shadow_step is if we have a set of claims that supports the existence of a Mafia Ascetic role over a Town Ascetic role.

Although it's true that I base my read on you primarily on POE, I do also stand by the things that I said to nn30 in (that your treatment of Lil Uzi Vert reads like creating distance), and the more recent points by Prism () also highlighted some ways in which your treatment of Lil Uzi Vert reads like a soft defense.


2559 Here Dierfire has expanded that he also scum reads me for my interactions with LUV. This does nothing to reassure me of Dier’s intents because those aren’t exactly new points by that point in time. Maybe I’m just setting the bar too high but Dier just doesn’t sound in any way insightful with his reasons to scum read me. His case on me is just verbatim with what Zoronos, and Prism have previously said.

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Post Post #2712  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:08 pm

In post 1516, Dierfire wrote:I'm ready for a hammer.

Man, Dier, good luck responding to all of this in kind. We're collectively piling it on here.

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Post Post #2713  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:22 pm

Plausible connections of Dier to LUV

Spoiler:
In post 1411, Dierfire wrote:@Lil Uzi Vert
I think that you are mistaken to suggest that Shadow_step was "tunneling" you early in the game. I assume that you're referring to things like and , and the fact that he left his RVS vote on you. I wouldn't read too much into those things; his lines of questioning suggest that his focus was much more strongly on eagerSnake after the claim (, , , , ).

I also think that it is incorrect to suggest that Shadow_step came up with "little to no information" by waiting, or that he had insufficient information to proceed. You may have missed this post:

In post 739, Shadow_step wrote:I got townreads. I'm almost 100% sure that boring is town because of your interactions.

And that these shouldn't be bothered at night by PRs[zoronos, nn, grendel, boring]
Actually I'd even go as far as saying that DF is town. But that is a meta read so meh


Here Deirfire sees that his his buddy has set himself up to one v one Shadow, and is trying to disauade him. It wouldn’t work to tell LUV in the PT to back off shadow because LUV already started in the thread proper. (this assuming that Shadow isn’t the third member)

Spoiler:
In post 1662, Dierfire wrote:I'd rather vote for Gamma Emerald than for PenguinPower or Lil Uzi Vert.
I'm still assessing whether I'd prefer to vote for Gamma Emerald than for boring.

I guess that for the purpose of clarity I'll put my vote on Gamma Emerald for now.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald


Votes Gamma instead of LUV.

Spoiler:
In post 2197, Dierfire wrote:@Grendel
Oh hi Mark!
(Hilarious film)

@Lil Uzi Vert
Your vote for Zoronos is fairly bad. I could perhaps be persuaded that it's wise to defer a decision on your lynch today, but I'd need a good lynch option and Zoronos is not that.


This could be Dierfire publicly kicking LUV’s boat away from the dock. He tells LUV that his case on Zoronos being bad. Then leaves LUV there to be hammered. I do not think Dierfire has a record for bussing, at least i don’t recall him bussing any partners in the scum games i read. So this might be the closest that Dierfire comes to 1v1 distancing at EoD. Just as an over all I found this interaction to be weird, idk.

Spoiler:
In post 1912, Dierfire wrote:
In post 1150, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.26
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

boring (5): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald, nn30
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Prism


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


This VC is where I'm starting.
So, eagerSnake is Town and 4/5 players on the boring wagon are Town. Although it's clear to me that my reads have not been superb in this game, I still think that Shadow_step is close to mechanistically clear by virtue of his claim.

If boring is Town, it's unlikely that the Mafia players would find a reason to avoid her wagon (makes nn30 more suspicious) and it makes PenguinPower the most suspicious player on the eagerSnake wagon. Lil Uzi Vert remains the most suspicious of the players on neither wagon.
If boring is Mafia, it makes nn30 less suspicious and probably increases the chances that we're looking at something like: boring, either PenguinPower or Grendel, and one of the players on neither wagon.

PenguinPower and Lil Uzi Vert are fairly suspicious regardless of whether boring is Town or Mafia. PenguinPower is more suspicious than Grendel, which makes him a better guess for a second Mafia player working with boring to oppose her wagon and a better guess for a single Mafia player on the eagerSnake wagon. Lil Uzi Vert is more suspicious than Zoronos and Prism, which makes him a good guess for Mafia unless all Mafia players are on the important wagons.


He mentions that LUV is suspicious but underplays it, and foucuses on the players on the main two wagons. Settling on boring a few posts later. Logically, it’d make sense for Dierfire to vote boring, given his null-scum read. Yet, consider the VC he uses lets him ignore LUV for other players as far as taking action goes. Namely Dier lines up boring/nn30, then he moves to Penguin/me if boring is scum, and ends with “somebody off the wagon” effectively putting LUV on the back burner. Even as he moves on to access LUV as the most likely of scum compared to Zoro, or Prism, his interest remains elsewhere. The reasoning behind voting boring is straight, but his priorities on the other players seems skewed away from LUV intentionally.

Spoiler:
In post 2070, Dierfire wrote:I've read through both PenguinPower and Lil Uzi Vert again. I don't find the depth of analysis that I find in other players (Prism, Zoronos, Grendel). In general I'd characterize this as not making effort to solve the game, which is suspicious.
I suppose that, if I trusted my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel, I'd start lynching by POE and drop a hammer on Lil Uzi Vert, but I'm reluctant to do so for two reasons.
First, the wagon on Shadow_step after the claim yesterday does not strike me as the sort of place to find a high density of Mafia players (it would have been far easier to vote for eagerSnake). This means that Lil Uzi Vert (and nn30) should be less suspicious than the other players I'm having difficulty reading (boring, PenguinPower). As a parallel to that, if nn30 is less suspicious, it becomes difficult to see why no suspicious players are voting for boring in the quoted VC.
Second, I don't really trust my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel. I have reasons to read each as Town but I'm simply finding it too good to be true that I've narrowed the Mafia players down so much.

In post 1150, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.26
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

boring (5): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald, nn30
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Prism


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


My vote is for boring. I haven't seen many good reasons to read her as Mafia, but I've seen none to read her as Town and I think that the VC shows, at a minimum, Mafia players avoiding her wagon.

VOTE: boring


He prefaces his post with, “i do find lil uzi vert suspect”, even saying that operating by PoE he would have him hammered. Instead of these he states of paranoia rising within his town reads, me, Zoronos, and Prism. Then justifies that LUV was less suspicious for pushing Shadow over Eager. Ending with a vote for boring. This post goes along with what i said about 1912, that Dier acknowledges that LUV is scummy, but intentionally diverts his attention away from LUV for somebody else, boring.

Spoiler:
In post 2560, Dierfire wrote:@PenguinPower
In post 2454, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 2452, boring wrote:You'll have to forgive me if I don't take your word for it. Regardless, I can't be the only person he buddied.


You actually seem to be, on his ISO read. At least, the only one I was able to discern. Please feel free to find another.

I'm surprised that boring didn't answer this, but I can find one--me! I've included several quotes below.

[spoiler=][spoiler=Quotes]
In post 443, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I am pretty wary of Penguin, especially after how hypocritical he's been about Grendal's RQS. That alone though isn't a strong enough for me to jump on this wagon although I agree with a lot of what Diefire presented.

In post 522, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Diefire - I liked every single one of his observations he's made so far and agree with almost all of them except the likelihood of Gamma and PP being a team. I'm not saying it's not a possibility, I just don't try to look for teams early on in the game and I like to focus on one person at a time once I feel 90% sure they're scum.

In post 1600, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Why Dierfire? To me, he's trying really hard to sort out who he feels is suspicious and none of the cases he presented so far have read like scum trying to push a mislynch.

In post 2120, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Anyway, I protected Dierfire Night 1. He was one of my strongest town reads and I thought scum would be threatened by the observations he made.
[/spoiler][/spoiler]

I don’t think any of the points raised here are specifically condemning of a relationship between Dier and LUV. The last one is the most unusual; it is weird that LUV would have claimed to have doctored his buddy. Mainly because LUV would be missing out on the opportunity of appealing to a townie. That's probably the only thing that directly contradicts DierxLUV there. THe stuff about LUV buddying you doesn't phase me because I played a game with LUV where I was scum, and I buddied my partner throughout the whole game. Even keeping him as a top tr for a while, so it wouldn't surprise me if LUV thought it was common practice for scum. Also some would say the fact that Dierfire brought this to every bodies attention himself is scummy. I personally find that sort of thing null.

Grendel
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Post Post #2714  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:26 pm

In post 2712, nn30 wrote:
In post 1516, Dierfire wrote:I'm ready for a hammer.

Man, Dier, good luck responding to all of this in kind. We're collectively piling it on here.


When I first saw you post in my pre edit menu thingy I was worried that you were gonna hit the same points that I was.

If that happened I would have been sad because it'd mean I'd wasted another evening lol.

Grendel
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Post Post #2715  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:28 pm

In post 2706, boring wrote:
In post 2705, Zoronos wrote:Shadowstep and Dier over Grendel?

I am going to speculate that this means you think Grendel is town?

I think Grendel's more likely town than either of them. If Penguin is out of the pool, then my scum list is Shadow>Dier>Grendel>nn30>Prism


Have you explained your read on Dier yet?

I don't recall when and if you did.

Grendel
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Post Post #2716  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:30 pm

@ Podoboq I switched my vote to Dier. Im not on the batman villain anymore.

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Post Post #2717  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:44 pm

@Grendel - Us hitting on similar points just means we're seeing similar (scummy) things from Dier.

Grendel
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Post Post #2718  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:04 pm

In post 2699, Prism wrote:I'm still busier than usual and can't make the responses I want today but quick notes:

-nn30 is either a god or town. I'm an atheist, I think it's the latter.
-I haven't reread to see if PP is real but I believe Implosion's site meta. if he is, lynching red today should give us town auto which would be pretty sick. Only way I could see to avoid it is if scum has a strongman.
-I don't get most people's reaction to Grendel, the past few pages of his are all over the place and it reads as trying to dodge autoloss at any cost.

@Implosion: If Grendel flips red do you still consider me a possibility?


Heh, okay, you want "serous" Grendel to address you. Fine. Let me tell you what I see in your question to Implosion:

1)I see how strongly you tie being cleared to being on lynched scum.

2)I know that typically speaking scum try to exploit what they view as town.

3)I recall that you consider your scum game to be far stronger then you town game.

4)Statistically speaking the amount of people that view themselves to be better as scum are avid hard bussers. The percentile is 86% of the time going off a sample size of 96 players that submitted RQS answers in previous games that pertained to the subject. To get more specific 43% of people favored Scum, and of those who answered 86% of them bussed at least one buddy at some point in the same game the submitted their answers. Those who preferred town did bus too, but only 33%, which is significantly smaller then those who favored mafia.

5)You rode LUV to death harder then anybody and earlier then anybody...

6)I've decided to not give you a town read for your being on the LUV wagon, and I'd advise anybody reading this to do the same in future.

Instead of evaluating nn30 next as I had originally intended. I'll assume you are correct, and nn30 is confirmed town. Meaning that I will looking into my weakest town read. Whom I will not deny I have been letting slide through the game. I'm guessing you know who I'm talking about?

See you tomorrow.

Grendel
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Post Post #2719  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:08 pm

Hey conf!town nn30, tell me what you think of Prism.

Outside of him driving LUV into the ground what are your reasons for town reading him?

Grendel
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Post Post #2720  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:13 pm

In post 2718, Grendel wrote:To get more specific 43% of people favored Scum, and of those who answered 86% of them bussed at least one buddy at some point in the same game the submitted their answers.



I was walking away thinking how cool it was whippin out dem stats, but then I realized I made a dumb mistake.

Its 43 out of 96 people. Not 43 percent of people. A prefect half!

(Though it'll likely be ruined once this games ends :( )

Grendel
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Post Post #2721  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:41 pm

I also forgot to mention that the sample size of 96 is all people who rolled mafia/wolf.

I did not include results of people who rolled town for this.

I'm just adding this to prevent confusion.

(Is it obvious that this is the first time I've made use of the raw data I amassed in an actual game of mafia?)

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Post Post #2722  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:52 pm

@Grendel - how much mafia do you play? Did you gather that info yourself?

boring
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Post Post #2723  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:31 pm

In post 2709, implosion wrote:
In post 2704, boring wrote:Speaking of which,
VOTE: Shadow_step

Do you actually think there's any chance shadow will be lynched today, at this point?
If no, why vote him?
If yes, how?

I'm not sure yet if there's a chance of lynching Shadow today. We have five days left, and a lot can happen in that time.

@Grendel.. 48 is half of 96...

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Post Post #2724  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:22 am

I'm waiting for that case on me.
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