Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

[nn30]

VOTE: DF

Fuck it

Shadow you dirty dog.

Goddamnit lol.

I'm so gullible.

@Boring - thanks... lol.

[PenguinPower]

He hasn't been hammered. Shadow was already voting Dier.

[Grendel]

VOTE: DF

Fuck it

Shadow you dirty dog.

Goddamnit lol.

I'm so gullible.

@Boring - thanks... lol.

Ah, okay.

it makes sense now. I thought that was pretty out of the blue at first.

[Grendel]

General question.

Would who you lynch next according to what Dier had flipped?

Like if he flipped mafia then x would be the next to go,

or if he flipped town then y would be the next to go.

[Grendel]

I'll answer my own question at 2778 when I finish reading through Prism. Ideally today.

Hi we're murdering Dierfire or Grendel.
Preferably Grendel.

Your probably going to hove to do more then this to lynch me btw.

Flex dem' muscles Zoro.

[boring]

My intent to hammer stands. I can't stop anyone else from hammering sooner, but I can't think of any good reason for not letting people sort out their affairs.

General question.

Would who you lynch next according to what Dier had flipped?

Like if he flipped mafia then x would be the next to go,

or if he flipped town then y would be the next to go.

Dier's played very carefully, and has no obvious associations. It's one of the reasons I think he's a likely scum. LUV was the closest association thus far, and will be irrelevant after the flip. I don't think his flip will point anywhere in particular, which will leave us in the same position tomorrow as far as the scum-hunt goes.

That's why I hope PP can get us a clear from among the potential mislynches. If it's a guilty, all the better, but one more clear will guarantee that a conf!town is present in LYLO, which will be vital. I think it's wasted on Zoro.

[podoboq]

Official Vote Count 3.22

Lynching

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Dierfire (4): Grendel, Shadow_step, nn30, PenguinPower
Grendel (3): Zoronos, Dierfire, Prism
boring (1): implosion
Shadow_step (1): boring

Not Voting (0):

Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-14 13:30:00)

[implosion]

At work but.

Do not hammer *anyone* until Zoronos has a chance to give a jailkeep target in the event that we get a scum flip.
If we get a townflip, Zoronos should not necessarily follow that target, but if we get a scumflip he should so that we can have an additional pseudoclear if he dies.

[implosion]

If we do get a scumflip Penguin should investigate someone other than Zoronos' target. I don't think it matters if they target the same person if we get a townflip (the only case where it could matter i think is if zoronos blocks the killing scum and in that case we basically win anyway).

[nn30]

@Implosion - so you're saying Zoro would say this:

In case of scum flip - I'll jail xxx

In case of town flip - I'll keep you guessing because WIFOM and not wanting to tip off scum.

Correct?

[implosion]

Yep.

[nn30]

@Boring - please wait for Dier to come back and say something before hammering. I'm sure you already intended on that, but yeah.

[boring]

Yeah, no. I want to hear any last arguments from Dierfire, as well as confirmation that Zoronos and Penguin are ready before I hammer. We have time.

[Shadow_step]

If DF flips red investigate one of boring/prism

If green one of boring/prism or nn/Grendel

[Shadow_step]

Zoronos should consider protecting PP as an option. Cause if we can keep blocking the scum kill, we get more lynches.

[Shadow_step]

I've responded to the first part which you never replied to.

If I'm an ascetic RB, this setup is ridiculously scum sided, so that whole argument is balls.

Next

What are you even talking about? The first part includes responses.
Why do you really think If I'm an ascetic RB, this setup is ridiculously scum sided is relevant to anything I've said? I don't think you're necessarily ascetic or RB. I just think you're scum.

I can't even be ascetic mafia goon, too scumsided.
So let me get this straight. You're case against me is that I CCed Eager a useless role at night(according to threat to mafia) by a role I didn't have ?
So apparently I can get fucked any night if someone bothers to check me.
Yeah okay. Brilliant case. You want a scummy?

Just say "yes this is my case" for my sanity.

Anyone scum reading me should consider this.
It's impossible for me to be mafia ascetic anything because of the minimal amount of power town has and ascetic can counter both.

We have 1) a cop 2) probably a deputy and 3) probably a jailer and 4) an ascetic.

We could have a mafia ascetic something in this game. Just means mafia power is concentrated on one member. Not impossible.

Plus, if you're mafia, there's no guarantee you're ascetic. You cc'ing Eager could have been a gambit where you lied as easily as one where you have a mafia PR.

Even your speculation of what could and couldn't be in this game is overly confident.

They won't give a mafia member a role which can counter all the PRs town have. It's too OP.

You can ask your favorite Implosion.

There should be no doubt over Zoro being conf town either. There is no way town only have a deputy and a cop as PRs.

[nn30]

With the setup spec conversation, I'm basically stuck taking everyone's word for it. I didn't even know what to expect from this game as it's my first normal. I am wary because of this, especially when the loudest contributor is you Shadow.

[Shadow_step]

Zoronos doesn't need to claim his target, cause even if he is hitting scum, assuming DF flips town. The other mafia will do the kill. PP needs to say his target so that Zoro and him don't end up targeting the same pjayer.

[Dierfire]

I'm aware that there are questions outstanding that I haven't answered, but I'm pressed for time so I will be giving only a short update tonight.

I'm not flipping Mafia, so while strictly speaking Zoronos should be announcing a target in the event that I flip Mafia, Shadow_step is correct that this will not be the case and in practice Zoronos will be working on the fly.

It was also a collective mistake to bring me to L-1, as if I were Mafia I would have been given the option to cut off discussion while Zoronos was away.

Of players on my wagon, I am most suspicious of Grendel and least suspicious of Shadow_step. It is in character for Shadow_step, as Town, to flip on me as he has recently, and I still think that the claim dynamics indicate Town alignment.

Therefore, my recommendations in the event of my death are to lynch Grendel and boring as first priority, with additional consideration to nn30 if the game is not won. Only in extreme cases would I consider Prism or Shadow_step candidates for the lynch.

[nn30]

@Implosion - In your experience, how often do scum play the 'here's what I think you should do when I flip town' card.

I know we don't have stats or anything, but is it common? Grendel basically did the same thing too.

[nn30]

@Dier - can you qualify your suspicion of Grendel, please? I know you don't have time tonight but at some point I'd like to hear your version.

[Zoronos]

Just got done driving a relatively long drive.

'Flips Red' is actually not the primary thing to be tracking. It's flips Red *and strongman / roleblocker / other jail avoider*.
If a scum goon flips, we have to assume the remaining scum has an available mechanism to dodge jails (because they went to the dome on Gamma as opposed to killing me first). Ergo, the clear could easily be a false-clear if it's an unlimited (or 2-shot) Strongman or a roleblocker that can both block and kill. We have to know that the scum's ability to defeat the offensive jail is offline before we make use of the jail as a cop clear.

tl;dr stop being bad.

I'll ponder my appropriate contingencies in a bit.
I still believe that Grendel is by far the best lynch today.
<have some more posts I want to respond to, please wait before lolhammering>

[Zoronos]

@Implosion - In your experience, how often do scum play the 'here's what I think you should do when I flip town' card.

Slightly less frequently than town, but not by a statistically significant margin. It is not a tell either way.

[Zoronos]

Confirming what we think we know would be a good start. So, Zoronos would be a good idea - though you're risking scum killing Zoro and you getting nothing useful here.

Same logic goes for shadow - though if he is ascetic, we still won't know his alignment. In a world where I could guarantee my investigation working, I'd go for Zoro over Shadow since it's more likely to turn up something useful.

I want to call these really bad suggestions and suggest that my town read on NN wavered slightly for it. But that might be overreaction on my part because I'm tired and grumpy from driving 9 hours.
Both of these feel like "Target useless people!" but I can see a reason to target Shadow (test the ascetic claim) and me (paranoia. We used to refer to it as 'Zoronoia' on my old forum, given how often it happened). So maybe I'm being a little overly harsh.
Noting for future reference.

[Zoronos]

As I've said before, I'm willing to vote Dierfire if we can't lynch Shadow today. If you're willing to vote Dierfire too, then I guess we'll have our five.

I would much rather lynch Grendel.
Dierfire feels much more of a PoE lynch to me. Grendel I have actual scum vibes from.

I've mentally broken it down thusly:
Grendel - actively scummy. Used NAI information repeatedly to build his cases, persisted bad cases even when warned off them, associatives with LUV look like partner-play (see: asking questions without concern for followup, largely ignoring him), vote position seems to more likely than not indicate a bus as does his certainty that LUV's doctor claim was fake.
NN30 - Had a lean town on him since D1. A bit... off kilter in terms of play skill, but seems to be trying to sort. Some of his posting has been O.o but a lot of that could be 'new and enthusiastic' rather than scum. I am not liable to go this way without significant convincing.
Boring - I maintain that her persistence on LUV on D2 over easier targets, especially once she decided to go from scum reading me to trying to work with me, even given my antagonistic stance throughout late D1 / all of D2, suggests town. Not liable to lynch.
Dierfire - Not much of a read at all. But the only person left in the bucket so "shoulder shrug I guess", which is not a great case for lynching someone in my mind. I want to be enthusiastic about going for the shoulder shrug lynch; I don't like it. But it's where we are and I'm not about to vote a town read. So.