Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

Shadow_step
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Post Post #2800  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:18 am

You need to correctly target 1/11 people assuming day 1 lynch is town to block the Mafia doing the kill . Even if you get that correct the person can argue that you protected him instead of blocking him.

Giving scum x shot RB or strongman is a huge "fuck you" to town . It is heavily unlikely scum have a RB or strongman.
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Shadow_step
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Post Post #2801  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:25 am

Implosion can you back me up here cause everything I say seems to be like talking to blank walls. Half the playerlist can't setup spec accurately to save their life.
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Prism
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Post Post #2802  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:50 am

I've seriously turned into a ghost the past 3/4 days sorry, I'm still heavily of the opinion that Grendel should be the lynch today. I'm not sure where Dierfire has come from over either of him/boring. I don't see him as unlikely to flip scum but I think Grendel is a LOT more likely, again the past 10 pages just reek of desperation to avoid potential autoloss. It turned borderline nonsensical.

This is probably the most important lynch in the game, and I want it on Grendel. I want a catchup post before any lynches go down and I really encourage people to unvote DF. Grendel, Shadow, nn30, and boring (declared intent) are literally all on Dierfire. Assuming Penguin Power and Zoronos are town, and Dierfire is mafia, mafia is bussing into probable autoloss. The only way this lynch makes sense is that either Dierfire is town or I'm mafia and, spoiler, I'm not.

Assuming Dierfire is town, I see no world in which Grendel is. That's a lot of assumptions, but I don't see any issues with my reasoning.

Shadow needs to drop the attitude again. Zoronos possibly jailing PP is stupid and nets us 0 information if they kill Zoronos which is the most likely outcome.

implosion
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Post Post #2803  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:50 am

@, it isn't a particularly good tell.

I'm just so unconvinced of anything other than boring being scum. Like ugh. Her pushing shadow, her making an obvious vanity vote on him and then saying she's not sure if there's a chance to lynch him, is just her desperately trying to get enough mislynches on the table to flip the game. Someone made a similar comment on Grendel which is fair.

Idk. I think I probably prefer a grendel lynch to a dier lynch right now but am essentially wavering between them.

@setup spec it wouldn't surprise me if scum have something like a 1-shot strongman or rb. It would surprise me quite greatly if they have an ascetic... which essentially fully counters the jailkeeper so long as it's alive (meta is to almost always use jailkeeper as a roleblocker because of fear of blocking a town power role), and partially counters the cop/deputy.

implosion
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Post Post #2804  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:51 am

and 2802 makes some solid points.

implosion
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Post Post #2805  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:54 am

I think one of my biggest personal mistakes in a recent towngame was when an experienced player (CES) subbed in to what wound up being a scum slot, and then quickly argued very saliently that Equinox, who was a consensus townread, was scum. I wound up townreading him partially for that. I think the thing I missed there was that it's important to look at not just the reasoning, but also who the reasoning is directed towards. I find it somewhat hard to believe that town at this point would genuinely think that shadow is probably one of the remaining two mafia. And more than that they really do need to push him.

So i guess for that reason I don't think I want dier today.

implosion
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Post Post #2806  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:58 am

i really do think it's silly to assume scum have a role though. It's silly to assume anything about night play. I've been burned way too many times in recent history by making bad assumptions about scum night play and chasing shadows...

anyway. Pretty tired from election-watching and stuff. Alas. I don't want a dier lynch. Zoronos doesn't want a dier lynch. PP's reads list implies he doesn't want a dier lynch. So can we like. Unvote from the dier lynch. As a general principle it's probably a good idea to have at least some of the conf/obvious townies want a lynch to happen for it to happen. And granted I just flip flopped. But meh. I think a dier townflip would be really bad because we'd be kind of gaining nothing while a grendel townflip, while bad, would be less bad. And i think at this moment that grendel's a less likely townflip.

implosion
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Post Post #2807  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:59 am

PP's voting dier and i'm an idiot i ctrl+f'd "dierfier" in his iso... page one.

Shadow_step
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Post Post #2808  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:58 am

Fine UNVOTE:

I just think we cannot possibly eliminate DF of any scum team so numerically correct lynch and all that.
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Prism
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Post Post #2809  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:37 am

And for Grendel and Implosion, yes, Fire Emblem 8 is my favorite. It's almost time for an avatar change.

podoboq
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Post Post #2810  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:52 am

Official Vote Count 3.23
LynchingWith 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Dierfire (3): Grendel, nn30, PenguinPower
Grendel (3): Zoronos, Dierfire, Prism
boring (1): implosion
Shadow_step (1): boring

Not Voting (1): Shadow_step


Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-14 13:30:00)
eagerSnake - "Fwiw mod steals pagetops while driving. Still think they wouldn't put in 2 people with ascetic?"

PenguinPower
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Post Post #2811  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:51 am

I could vote Grendel. My Dier scumread was associative, so not that great, I guess.

UNVOTE:

nn30
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Post Post #2812  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:12 am

I have good feels about prism and slightly less (but still good) feels about zoro. If they would prefer another lynch that's fine by me. Implo is conf town.

VOTE: grendel

That's l-1

That said, I get the impression that none of the three of you gave any lengthy consideration to why I'm finding Died scummy. It seems that the three of you are still on your '???' reads from 15 pages ago.

If this is true let me know. I'll point you back to the posts I want you to look at.

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Post Post #2813  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:11 pm

Also, I just want to acknowledge that I know Implosion is for a Boring lynch.

2/3 of the people I'm confident in want Grendel, hence my vote.

implosion
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Post Post #2814  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:21 pm

nn, yes, i probably missed those.

boring
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Post Post #2815  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 3:33 pm

Okay, I'm super thrilled about this Grendel wagon. I certainly don't see why he's so high on everyone's scum list. I'm not holding him up as "for sure town", but why is he the top scum read?!

Anyone voting him, please give me a tl;dr, or point me to posts that you think are the most succinct arguments for his lynch.

nn30
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Post Post #2816  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:07 pm

@Implosion - 2697, 2702, 2710.

@Town - would someone kindly explain to me how to link to posts (as it would have been useful above).

PenguinPower
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Post Post #2817  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:18 pm

Code: Select all
[post]# of post[/post]


e.g.

Code: Select all
[post]1[/post]

nn30
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Post Post #2818  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:21 pm

Thank you Penguin!

@Implosion

, ,

boring
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Post Post #2819  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:05 pm

In post 2813, nn30 wrote:2/3 of the people I'm confident in want Grendel, hence my vote.

Confirmed town are just as likely to be wrong as unconfirmed. The only difference is that you know their opinion is genuine. Do you have independent reasons for believing that he's likely to be scum? If so, what are they?

boring
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Post Post #2820  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:19 pm

Okay Zoronos, I see that you provided some info on your Grendel read recently.
In post 2799, Zoronos wrote:Grendel - actively scummy. Used NAI information repeatedly to build his cases

I agree that Grendel has made a few NAI points, but that can be said of many players. Meta isn't NAI, but I know you're not fond of it. He's also shared statistics and data from previous games. While I realize we just have to take his word for it, it would be a strange gimmick for scum. It gives me more of a game-solvey vibe.

In post 2799, Zoronos wrote: persisted bad cases even when warned off them

Persisting in bad cases when warned off them is more likely to earn town points than scum points in my book. Scum are more likely to respond to correction than town, as they're trying to survive, not solve.

In post 2799, Zoronos wrote:associatives with LUV look like partner-play (see: asking questions without concern for followup, largely ignoring him)

I'll skim through Grendel's and LUV's combined ISO's, unless you've given us examples, and I've just forgotten. If you're thinking of any post combinations in particular, please let me know.

In post 2799, Zoronos wrote:vote position seems to more likely than not indicate a bus as does his certainty that LUV's doctor claim was fake.

I'll concede that point, but it's not enough to lynch someone.

boring
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Post Post #2821  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:21 pm

In post 2815, boring wrote:Okay, I'm super thrilled about this Grendel wagon. I certainly don't see why he's so high on everyone's scum list. I'm not holding him up as "for sure town", but why is he the top scum read?!

Anyone voting him, please give me a tl;dr, or point me to posts that you think are the most succinct arguments for his lynch.

Wow.

I meant that I'm not super thrilled about this Grendel wagon.

nn30
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Post Post #2822  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:26 pm

@Boring - I do.

And you're right, town could be wrong very easily. But if I'm going with the people I'm confident in at least I'm confident that I'm not being intentionally misled.

,

[bold]@ Mod - The second link goes to the wrong place, funnily enough. Must be a bug with the site. Notice how it reads 2577 but leads to 2557? I've left it here as evidence of this bug - who should I point this out to, if anyone? [/bold]

Game related - just ISO me and look for post 2577. It's the one I mean (not the linked one).

Grendel
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Post Post #2823  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:06 am

Welp I'm fighting a sinus infection right now, and my over all drive to play has dropped significantly.

I still think Dierfire needs to be lynched first (Has anybody even read my case on him?). Then moving on to the -Belgian waffle peddler-, nn30 as next priority.

Outside of those two I am wary of Prism because I think he has the ability to fake what he is doing as scum. At this point I still think he shouldn't get town cred for being on the LUV wagon. I also dislike how he accuses his scum reads of being "nonsensical", which is on the same level as "Either they're bad town or scum". I also think a lot of the rhetoric he uses to drum up support for his lynches is mischaracterizing, and misleading. Trouble is that idk if that's just how Prism likes to push his wagons, or if its actually something he prefers doing as scum. I also never finished rereading him because his posts are dense and I had to do lots of cross checking. I was null about a lot of it.

I'm not at the same level of support of town Boring that I once was. I still have a town lean, but I actually haven't been very found of her push on Shadow lately. Its mainly that with all of of town power on the table I think its significantly unlikey for scum to have power for both an asthetic, and something else. It occurs to me that with Gamma being the kill scum probably have something to counter the jail keeper. I still however think that boring is less likely to bus LUV, and that a lot reasons she has been scum read came from personality quirks, and fear votes. The later reason is also an additional reason the sr nn30 imo, and if nn30 flips scum, boring is a strong town read again.

Shadow is close to mechanically clear.

I consider everybody else mechanically clear, and completely off the table.

--Implosion, Zoronos, Penguin Power-- conftown

Shadow, Boring, Prism nn30, DierFire

Grendel
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Post Post #2824  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:23 am

@Zoronos, Expect me to talk your ears off in the post game. You've made several, really, questionable plays this game that were bad and you should avoid in future. I also think that you shouldn't have the authority you do despite being conf!town. From my eyes Your push on me looked highly ego fueled. Also, for somebody telling another player they need humility, you yourself are no Job.

@boring and Dierfire it was nice to finally get to play with you both!

Good luck town. I think that you guys are in a good position to win. :)

I'm going to go back to bed now...

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