Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

podoboq
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Post Post #2950  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:50 pm

Official Vote Count 4.05
LynchingWith 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

boring (3): Prism, nn30, implosion
Dierfire (1): boring

Not Voting (3): Dierfire, Zoronos, BlackVoid


V/LA: boring

Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-27 11:30:00)
Last edited by podoboq on Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:17 am, edited 3 times in total.
eagerSnake - "Fwiw mod steals pagetops while driving. Still think they wouldn't put in 2 people with ascetic?"

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Post Post #2951  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:10 pm

I've been doing more thinking about what to do in the event of a scum lynch today.

Looking around at other large normals, the one I found so far most similar in terms of flipped power is this: Mini #1800 which has a town motion detector, a jailkeeper, an odd-night mason recruiter, and a scum neopolitan/jailkeeper enabler. Our town power seems a lot heavier, as even with ascetics they provide distinctive claims from the VTs. Assuming Zoronos is real I suspect it is very likely that either scum has a jailkeeper enabler (presumably the scum expected to go first) or that the player expected to go further is a strongman.

Without a circumventing scum PR, I think killing Zoronos was almost certainly optimal. Gamma/PP gave only one more report in the event they didn't die. PP was still potentially lynchable. Zoronos in contrast has a chance to block back to back scum and is not lynchable. Town also gets a pseudoclear post-death if he dies with only one scum left. This threat continues into the next night, even after cop/deputy has died. The only way not killing Zoronos is optimal is if they are confident that scum will not be lynched, either Day 3 or on Day 4.

With this in mind, I think I've drawn up the best strategy for tomorrow. Assuming we get a scum lynch today, we will still have a mislynch. If there is no kill tomorrow night, Zoronos outs who he jailed, and we lynch outside that person and Zoronos. That night, if our lynch is on town, Zoronos jails the same person. If we again get a no kill, it is safe to lynch that person as we've just been granted a second mislynch and therefore get no harm out of using it on the jailed. If Zoronos dies instead, we get the same pseudokill a day delayed.

This works best if there's no scum circumvention. If there is it prevents outright framing of a town before the kill. If they no kill once then kill the next day, our extra person we prevent the death of to turn 3 way into 4 way is Implosion. The only downside to this I see is if scum has an every other night strongman.

P-Edit:
nn30 wrote:Keep in mind he made the majority of those reads before he got a role pm.
That is the point. I asked about the reads because I was skeptical due to their convenience, but he posted it in less than 30 minutes. It's definitely legitimate, if not wholly than the vast majority. It's possible he tweaked them after seeing his role PM but the chances are lower, and it couldn't have been more than one or two.
nn30 wrote:Also, I want your opinion on my theoretical world where Boring/Dier are the next two to go. Who's do we lynch assuming the game doesn't end right then and there?
Probably BlackVoid or Zoronos. My reads are my worst part of my towngame (See: Implosion, Grendel) but I'm still very sure it's boring/Dierfire. I really don't believe Shadow pulled his Day 1 as scum, nor that you are this capable of a scum. I mean this not in the sense that I think you're incompetent, but rather that if you're scum to me you're god at a keyboard. If it comes down to it I'll spec your other games and make sure you're not.

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Post Post #2952  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:16 pm

In hindsight it might not have been in my best interest to label you that way publicly just as a hedge, but it speaks to my confidence in it.

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Post Post #2953  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:25 pm

This is going to look pretty bad if boring does end up flipping Mafia, but I'm still not ready for the hammer.

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Post Post #2954  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:43 pm

Dier - in our hypothetical suicide pact with you and boring, who's the last scum? Who do you advocate we lynch?

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Post Post #2955  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:08 am

All right, here I go with the consolidated results of my reading:

Spoiler: Prism and nn30
Prism is likely to be Town and I stand by what I said earlier (). Throughout D2, Lil Uzi Vert seemed to evade his lines of questioning and Prism kept a consistent vote on Lil Uzi Vert. I additionally note that Prism makes an unlikely partner for BlackVoid due to the heat of the argument with Shadow_step.
New this issue: I also find Prism an unlikely partner for boring due to the fact that Prism and boring both voted for Lil Uzi Vert throughout D2. As boring was a major wagon D1, it would not make much sense to me that Lil Uzi Vert would be selected as the target for a committed bus; rather I would read boring's vote as designed to create distance and I would expect that the lack of a significant wagon on boring D2 indicates that the Mafia were not attempting to sacrifice there.

nn30 is unlikely to be Mafia in any case. As I've said already, the VC in makes nn30 unlikely to have been partners with Lil Uzi Vert because they stacked votes on Shadow_step when the logic for stacking votes on eagerSnake would have been easier to fabricate. This also especially makes nn30 unlikely to be Mafia with BlackVoid (because that would mean that two Mafia players stacked votes on their third partner while ignoring two larger wagons on Town players with easier logic). Finally, I agree with the analysis by Shadow_step (in ) that it seems unlikely that a Mafia team of boring and nn30 would have boring commit the kill.
New this issue: this does raise the problem of why Lil Uzi Vert, known to be Mafia, would do such a thing at all. I speculate that if Shadow_step (now BlackVoid) and boring were both Mafia the play might make some sense; Lil Uzi Vert could have been worried about stacking a third Mafia vote on eagerSnake but also reluctant to bring the boring wagon close to completion. By the same token, although to me it seems less likely, nn30 and boring could both be Mafia; in that case, nn30 and Lil Uzi Vert would have stacked on Shadow_step in order to avoid being on a wagon in direct competition with boring. This isn't wholly implausible given the way that Lil Uzi Vert migrated to the eagerSnake wagon eventually, but the way that nn30 went to the boring wagon instead () suggests to me that Shadow_step would have been a more likely third partner than nn30.

I've expressed that both Prism and nn30 are unlikely to be Mafia based on negative associations with Lil Uzi Vert, unlikely to be partners with BlackVoid, and unlikely to be partners with boring (Prism less likely than nn30). I didn't find any specific associative reason that they are unlikely to be partners with each other, but I think that the weight of the evidence for reading each individually as Town is sufficient for me to discount this.


Spoiler: BlackVoid and boring
BlackVoid still gives me trouble because of the claim by Shadow_step. However, as I've said in the above section, there are significant negative associations with Prism and nn30, so the only plausible partner would be boring--and I may have worked out a few scenarios in which the voting pattern makes sense with a Mafia team of Lil Uzi Vert, boring, and Shadow_step. Most obviously, the odd behavior by Lil Uzi Vert (voting for Shadow_step rather than eagerSnake) raises my suspicion that something strange is going on, and it would make sense if boring is Mafia and eagerSnake already had two Mafia votes. The way that Lil Uzi Vert was so conservative with votes D1 (the vote for Shadow_step after both claims were out was the first vote since RVS) would also fit a player scared to vote in general, which is consistent with a player scared to stack votes with partners. Furthermore, I found that the reaction that Shadow_step had to seeing boring at L-1 ( and , no hammer on boring and continues to push the nn30 lynch despite what appears to be a case against boring in ) makes Shadow_step more likely to be partners with boring and less likely to be partners with nn30. More recently, I note that boring and Shadow_step have been fighting (, , ) but without voting in a way that resembles creating distance (for example, Shadow_step claimed to have found my VT claim most suspicious in and to have preferred to lynch boring in , but kept a vote on nn30 throughout). In fact, Shadow_step never voted for boring, and boring votes Shadow_step in at a time when the lynch is unpopular (marked opposition from me in , implosion in , Zoronos in , PenguinPower in ).
So what about that claim? On its face, I still have problems with it because the Ascetic claim ought to be low priority for the Mafia to counter (it is relatively easily dispatched by night or lynched later), and because Shadow_step did appear lay early groundwork for doubting the claim. My only proposed solutions are either that Shadow_step really had the Ascetic modifier and decided to commit to playing like a Town Ascetic (with a bit of recklessness), or that Shadow_step has the Traitor role.
  • Ascetic first: while I think that it's clear that Shadow_step was laying the groundwork to doubt the claim from eagerSnake, on further review of D1 material I don't actually see much evidence that this requires Town alignment rather than just keeping the option to counter the claim later. Posts like , , and can be used as evidence that Shadow_step doubts the claim, but don't commit Shadow_step to a specific reason for that doubt (that is, there is no crumb that specifically points to Shadow_step being Ascetic).
  • Traitor next: there was a mention of the role by Shadow_step in , which raised my hackles a bit because the context was incorrect (Traitor is not immune to Cop as confirmed by Mod in ). I consider a fringe theory that this mention of Traitor and the early RVS vote for Lil Uzi Vert () were attempts to subtly inform the Mafia players of the situation. I also considered again the interactions between Shadow_step and Lil Uzi Vert that I quoted in , and they require only that Lil Uzi Vert was unaware of Shadow_step's alignment, not the reverse.

In any case I think that it's evident that the claim was the only major reason to read Shadow_step as Town. I read Grendel's again and find the associations with Lil Uzi Vert and the steep decline in activity persuasive as reasons to be suspicious of Shadow_step.

boring is the player that I most expect to be Mafia. I had difficulties with reading her for a long time (, , ), but by a combination of associations (), VCA (), and an accumulation of points that other players made (), I'm reading her as Mafia. I've discussed above why I find her an unlikely partner for Prism, a reasonably likely partner for BlackVoid, and a less likely partner for nn30.


In summary:
I think that the most likely Mafia team is boring and BlackVoid.
I think that the next most likely Mafia team is boring and nn30.
I rate all remaining teams are well below these in terms of likelihood.

I'm holding my vote for now in case there is any other important discussion that needs to happen today, and so that Zoronos can again name a target for the event that boring flips Mafia, but otherwise I'm committing to reading boring as Mafia and ready to drop the hammer.

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Post Post #2956  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:20 am

Since it's likely one of Zoronos and Implosion won't be here tomorrow, I'm ready for a hammer after they both get another chance to post final thoughts/JK target (unless there's anything else). I need to process Dierfire's posts and re-read closely but I'd rather do that after flipping Boring and confirming that she's indeed scum.

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Post Post #2957  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:41 am

I won't deny that blackvoid's entrance is possibly just a very overt appeasement directed to me. But,
1) I still think shadow was town, doubt that the scum have an ascetic, doubt that he'd have done the cc d1 if he were a scum ascetic, think his play is generally town (if frustrating),
2) I doubt he just made all of that up in the time between reading his role PM and saying it. I'd see it as more likely, if blackvoid is scum, that he genuinely misread the slot he replaced into as town. But I do still think it's a town slot.

@Prism's , odd-night mason recruiter is actually extremely strong (and synergizes much better with jailkeeper than a cop does) and remember that our town power, if BlackVoid is town, is mitigated significantly by the existence of two ascetics.

I'm pretty much willing to say if there are 3 non-traitor scum and zoronos is scum, we lose. we should never, EVER lynch zoronos unless there is a traitor flip or the game goes to 3p lylo without any more scum flips and in the former of those situations I'm still skeptical.

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Post Post #2958  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:47 am

I honestly have a mental block right now where it's really just hard to see anyone other than boring/dier as scum. I don't think I'll be able to effectively re-evaluate anyone unless one of them flips town. If that happens then I will. But I'm pretty confident zoronos will die tonight.

But, just to be clear again, Zoronos definitely needs to out a JK target before we hammer, in the event boring flips scum. I personally think he should follow that target no matter what scum role she flips if she does flip scum but I'll leave it up to him.

Unvote

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Post Post #2959  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:32 am

Double checked my role PM just to make sure. Still town.

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Post Post #2960  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 5:33 am

Sorry, I'm just not sure what to think from this seat.
PoE says either
a) It's Boring + DF, but I'm not super enthused about that specific combination.
or
b) my town read on NN is wrong
or
c) Something really whacky happened with the LUV bus re: Pristm.

In approximately that order of likelyhood, from most to least. But all those strike me as fundamentally off. I'm trying to decide if I rate (b) as more likely than (a), and if so, does that leave boring town with a NN+DF scum team.

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Post Post #2961  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 8:32 am

VOTE: Boring

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Post Post #2962  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 8:44 am

In class. Flip will be posted in a couple of hours

EDIT: Nevermind, I miscounted votes. Sorry for the mistake. I have unlocked the thread.
eagerSnake - "Fwiw mod steals pagetops while driving. Still think they wouldn't put in 2 people with ascetic?"

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Post Post #2963  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 9:58 am

Whoops, sorry podoboq. I was trying to squeeze some reactions from the players, not fake you out. Though, on the positive side, it was convincing! If only mornings were more active...

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Post Post #2964  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:08 am

@Podoboq

Where's the miscount?

Including Boring's vote, she has four. That's lynch.

What am I missing?

UNVOTE: Boring

Assuming there was a miscount, I don't want her hammered before Zoro can declare his intention for his night action.

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Post Post #2965  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:16 am

Official Vote Count 4.06
LynchingWith 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

boring (2): Prism, boring

Not Voting (5): Dierfire, Zoronos, BlackVoid, implosion, nn30


V/LA: boring

Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-27 11:30:00)
eagerSnake - "Fwiw mod steals pagetops while driving. Still think they wouldn't put in 2 people with ascetic?"

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Post Post #2966  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:20 am

crap. sorry.

UNVOTE:

I forgot to do that.

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Post Post #2967  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:22 am

VOTE: Dierfire

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Post Post #2968  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:26 am

OH Implosion unvoted. That was hard to see. Okay, cool.

Boring's self-vote virtually guarantees her to be scum now... Her 'I was reaction fishing' retroactive explanation is awful. She was obviously trying to deny Zoronos the opportunity to declare his night action intentions. If Boring is scum, I see virtually no more reason to believe Zoronos is suspect. Sorting his slot has been nagging at me all D3 and it will (likely) be put to rest here and now.

Dierfire's recent posts indicate a level of input into attempting to solve the game that he now reads towny to me. If we catch scum in Boring, I think we can afford to start tomorrow with BlackVoid. If we're wrong about BlackVoid we can discuss and potentially circle back to Dierfire (but I think it's unlikely I'm wrong about BlackVoid).

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Post Post #2969  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:27 am

In post 2960, Zoronos wrote:In approximately that order of likelyhood, from most to least. But all those strike me as fundamentally off. I'm trying to decide if I rate (b) as more likely than (a), and if so, does that leave boring town with a NN+DF scum team.


Would you agree that if Boring flips scum, my chances of being scum go way down (given that you jailed me last night and a kill still occurred)?

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Post Post #2970  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:45 am

Uh no, I highly doubt scum don't have a roleblocker.

I think everyone's agreed that the remaining scum has to be between nn30, Dierfire, and me. We have two chances to get it right. We shall see how it pans out.

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Post Post #2971  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:55 am

NN30 being so easily convinced that Boring was scum after I posted reasons seemed pretty suspicious actually. He was apparently townreading her for bussing, but then as soon as I make the argument, he's suddenly all for it, then pushes me and Boring as a team which is a weird progression. I think he's pushing me simply because he knows Boring is likely dead and Dierfire is pretty much a guaranteed mislynch, and I'll vote him in 3-way lylo.

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Post Post #2972  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 11:03 am

In post 2474, implosion wrote:Alright, nn's play today feeling town:

I think it's pretty much entirely encapsulated . That post gives me two reasons to think nn is town:

-the indignance with which he describes his play as town. This is more of a gut thing, it isn't going to be rigorously justifiable. It does go beyond simply indignance; it feels to me like nn is genuinely trying to work with people to solve the game. His insistence that the people pushing him give cases, his rhetoric towards Zoronos, and so on.

-his throwing townreads out left and right. If he's scum then the way that he went into today is painting himself into a corner, immediately striking out both pp and boring as likely directions for him to push in going forward. Granted, he did flip on boring now, but in a reasonable way in response to new information which him as scum wouldn't have known would be guaranteed to happen. To generalize he is playing this day very off-the-cuff, throwing reads out and laying his opinions bare for everyone to investigate. Saying he , then giving to vote him 7 minutes later. And then saying he got more from Grendel 40 minutes after that. He's responsive. He doesn't have a plan. His play just doesn't feel like scum who's trying to get a person in particular lynched, or avoid lynching anyone else in particular, or try to avoid being lynched himself; his play is just too much a combination of putting himself out there and not having a plan behind it to be scum, I think.

So, I read the posts you are pointing out. Obviously I need to re-read them in context before I can comment on them but he has a completed game as mafia so I'm going to check whether these are not just all playstyle-indicative.

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Post Post #2973  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 11:09 am

In post 2970, BlackVoid wrote:Uh no, I highly doubt scum don't have a roleblocker.

I think everyone's agreed that the remaining scum has to be between nn30, Dierfire, and me. We have two chances to get it right. We shall see how it pans out.


Explain this, please. This is my first normal. How can we be certain that a role blocker exists? I basically tuned out of the night action / power role discussion because your predecessor was so difficult to talk to.

Some thoughts on the topic. Let's pretend scum 100% have a role blocker. Are cops still more important to NK than Zoronos? Theoretically, when Penguin claimed deputy scum could have chosen to role block him and kill Zoro. This play comes with the possibility of town not believing that Penguin didn't get a result and securing a mislynch in this way. It also comes with the chance of Penguin stating who he investigated, saying he got no result, and scum throwing shade at that person 'for not claiming ascetic' earlier (ala Lynch all Liars).

By no means does this line of thought discount the possibility of scum having a role blocker, but it is a wrinkle to consider.

In post 2971, BlackVoid wrote:NN30 being so easily convinced that Boring was scum after I posted reasons seemed pretty suspicious actually. He was apparently townreading her for bussing, but then as soon as I make the argument, he's suddenly all for it, then pushes me and Boring as a team which is a weird progression. I think he's pushing me simply because he knows Boring is likely dead and Dierfire is pretty much a guaranteed mislynch, and I'll vote him in 3-way lylo.


While you do make a point that I'm too easy to convince, that is more a matter of my scum reads being so bad this game. My reads in early days consisted of Gamma, Implosion, and Boring (who now looks scummy btw). I also chose Grendel over Boring/Dierfire yesterday which in hindsight was a mistake.

I'm easily convinced because 1) my reads are not set in stone and 2) I'm unsure of my scum hunting game.

Last thing - take a look at my 2968. I'm actually advocating for someone other than Dierfire tomorrow. This point should refute what you've just said about my play regarding him since I no longer want his lynch.

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Post Post #2974  (ISO)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 11:13 am

@BlackVoid - I'm excited to hear what your meta dive reveals.

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