Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

[podoboq]

Official Vote Count 4.07

Lynching

With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

boring (1): Prism
Dierfire (1): boring

Not Voting (5): Dierfire, Zoronos, BlackVoid, implosion, nn30

V/LA: boring

Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-27 11:30:00)

[BlackVoid]

If scum have a roleblocker and roleblock anyone OTHER than Zoronos, two potential drawbacks: one - their kill target may be protected by Zoronos in which case they miss their kill; two - Zoronos jailkeeps the killer which casts suspicion on them and they miss their nightkill. Tl;dr - if they have a roleblocker, roleblocking Zoronos is the way to go. They could have killed him as well but that leaves Penguin free to investigate anyone he wants.

I don't Penguin was likely to get mislynched at all. I think people realized how well his role fit into the setup. Without it, town would be underpowered.

You being easily convinced doesn't explain why Implosion making similar arguments didn't sway you. (I'll have to look back to confirm this though). It also seems weird that your top suspect besides Boring is the one that showed you why Boring was scum.

Advocating for my lynch outside Dierfire doesn't mean that he won't be lynched anyways due to concensus so that the next day you can say "told you guys, it was BV." It also doesn't mean that you can't change your mind in 3P and vote Dierfire anyways. In fact he'll be a hell of a lot easier mislynch than me in 3P because everyone is so against him.

[nn30]

Uh no, I highly doubt scum don't have a roleblocker.

I think everyone's agreed that the remaining scum has to be between nn30, Dierfire, and me. We have two chances to get it right. We shall see how it pans out.

@BlackVoid - I have some responses. However I want to hold them until you've looked at my scum game.

[Zoronos]

In approximately that order of likelyhood, from most to least. But all those strike me as fundamentally off. I'm trying to decide if I rate (b) as more likely than (a), and if so, does that leave boring town with a NN+DF scum team.

Would you agree that if Boring flips scum, my chances of being scum go way down (given that you jailed me last night and a kill still occurred)?

My reasoning for jailing you was that in most of the scum teams that existed in my head, you were higher on my towny list than most, ergo were more likely to do the kill.
However, Boring was also on my towny list, so the specific NN+Boring team is one where the logic of 'NN probably did the kill if he was scum, and I jailed him and the kill happened anyway, ergo not scum' doesn't hold. Since the logic is contingent on you being higher on the 'Zor's town reads' chart, and boring was on that chart as well.

If DF flipped scum, I would agree with the statement. If boring does, I would consider if to not change my priors. However my prior was already that you were town-ish so that's not saying a ton.
Though I must confront that at least one of my town reads is wrong, since PoE demands it unless for some crazy reason there are only 2 scum.

[nn30]

@Zoronos - thank you for all that input. Based on this logic, I can see why a kill happening last night does not remove me from suspicion entirely.

I have to make a probabilistic argument here, however.

You jailed me. In order for me to be scum, either my partner had to make the kill or we role blocked you (or both, I suppose).

By jailing me, you've added more conditions which have to be satisfied in order for me to be scum. In probabilistic terms, this has to move the needle at least a little towards my being town.

Keep being suspicious of me if you need to. But do so after taking this argument into account.

[Zoronos]

When I play mafia, I make a habit of entirely ignoring probabilistics that require the assumption of hidden setup information. Specifically, night information; night information is the domain of the scum team.

The entire point of the game is information disparity; the scum know already which setup we are in. Trying to bucket the setup itself based on something I fundamentally don't know is to cast dice and hope on a setup-meta-level. I prefer to simply acknowledge it is currently unknowable. If the game enters into a state where that information *is* knowable, then people should go back and fill in the gaps of what I've written / done and come to useful conclusions from it.

Until then, I don't make a habit of gambling with the setup. I have watched Towns lose too many games to "The mod would never...."

[nn30]

I'm not saying 'the mod would never..." In fact, I've very intentionally avoided that statement.

I see what you're saying - I, as scum, could be using my hidden knowledge to manipulate you.

It is a possibility.

But I could also be town trying to make the most logical argument I can based on the limited information I have.

I'm not saying the needle should necessarily move much. I'm just saying it should move SOME. Like 5%?

Let's change the subject - we're obviously spinning our wheels here.

@Zoro - I believe I haven't asked you this. In my hypothetical world where Boring/Dier are next, who do you advocate for next?

[nn30]

Wait a minute.

Zoro is online lol.

VOTE: Boring

Can we get your night action intentions and lynch already? Lol.

[Zoronos]

@Zoro - I believe I haven't asked you this. In my hypothetical world where Boring/Dier are next, who do you advocate for next?

I feel like I addressed this about two posts up from the question.
I don't know, and frankly I feel uncomfortable giving a pre-flip associative, especially when that pre-flip associative necessarily fires into my town reads.

[nn30]

There's nothing that says you could change that feeling tomorrow after Boring's flip.

I just want the fullest picture of everyone's current feelings I can get. You must have some inkling other than 'idk man.'

[nn30]

Hell, I'd even accept you saying it was me. I wouldn't be surprised by that even.

[Zoronos]

There's nothing that says you could change that feeling tomorrow after Boring's flip.

I just want the fullest picture of everyone's current feelings I can get. You must have some inkling other than 'idk man.'

I've made it pretty clear that my best read in the current situation is DF.
But you posed the question of "What if DF is town and Boring" which basically is "If all your reads are wrong, then what?". To which my response must be "Well, if all my reads are wrong, I don't know what to think, since we're pre-supposing all my reads are wrong."

[Zoronos]

*and Boring is scum

[nn30]

Unwilling to play ball.

*noted*

[Zoronos]

...
I don't even understand your question at this point. Or maybe you don't understand your question.

[nn30]

The question was never hard.

In a hypothetical world, where the great and powerful Zoronos is wrong about his reads, who do we lynch after Boring and Dier?

[Zoronos]

That's a dumb question, and I answered it already.

I don't know.
If we're explicitly talking about a world where *I'm actively wrong*, doing pre-flip associatives off the premise that I'm wrong means my associatives are *probably also wrong*.
Setting up contingent lynches in that scenario would be terrible and the height of foolishness on my part. Having a lynch not flip the way I think it will should be an inspiration to rethink, not to double down on predictions.

[nn30]

In case I die tonight, my top scum after Boring is actually Zoro.

Since D2 started Zoro has basically been unwilling/unable to put forth his own effort to solve the game. The last thing he did was decide on Grendel and stick with that all D2.

I don't think he had much original to say about Dierfire being scum - rather, he just let us morph his '???' to 'scum-read' for him.

I understand that Zoro is an un-countered PR. That said his jailings have targeted town (who are now dead) or myself. From my POV I know for a fact that he's only targeted town with his jailings.

I know he's an uncounted power role. That said, there's absolutely no guarantee that there's a jailkeeper in this game. All we know for a fact is that LUV flipped goon, we had a deputy, an ascetic, and a cop.

Just between the two investigative roles town has a lot of power. What level of power on the remaining 2 scum would counterbalance a cop, deputy, AND a jailkeeper? I'm not sure - but I'm inclined to think Zoro is lying about his PR.

The conversation I've had with him right now feels a lot like he doesn't want to get painted into a corner by answering my question and would prefer to keep his options open.

@Zoro - let's flip Boring already. That lynch is all but guaranteed anyways. We can revisit this tomorrow.

[nn30]

I'm also dialing back my scummy feelings towards BlackVoid. His behavior today has been 100% reasonable and gave me all kinds of reasons to think he's town.

[nn30]

Hell, if BlackVoid is actually a town ascetic as I'm arguing my Zoro theory makes even more sense.

Scum don't need much power to counter a cop/deputy combo. Town already has two roles negative roles.

[nn30]

I also think that Boring/Dier being the scum team isn't super likely. Neither of them made any effort to try to move the conversation away from the two of them being the next lynches. There was absolutely no flail. If we find scum in Boring I don't want to think about Dier.

[nn30]

More stuff on Zoro.

Do your own digging too. I found this stuff after deciding I thought he and Boring were the team. Grains of salt, conf bias, yadayada.

Spoiler:

Here Zoro pushes me away from a Boring lynch and in favor of a Grendel Lynch.

So, something was bugging me earlier, and I want to go back to it quick.

If your theory is correct, this could be Boring teeing up my mislynch after Grendel flips red.

NN - If you believe this, it predicates on Grendel actually being red.
If you believe Grendel is red, and boring is using a red flip to try and mislynch you, then *Grendel is still red and should get lynched for being red*.

Here, have a 'Zor thinks you're not busing Grendel probably' certificate. You can use it to convince someone that I don't think you're busing and we shouldn't lynch you for it.

(I want to be clear; I'm not saying I think NN's scum. I don't. It's just a common mistake; going second intention when we can go direct)

Spoiler:

D1 - he states '????' but actually lists a lot of reasons to scum read her. Classic FoS from scum.

Boring is in the ???? bucket as well. I really don't understand her 'strong town' reading on Shadow_Step. He's at the top of her town list and it makes no sense to me. She cites aggresiveness and grandiosity as town tells, and the former I don't find a town tell unless backed by reasoning and consensus building, and the later I don't think I see in ShadowStep's posting. I agree with her Implosion read at the time she made it, for basically the reason she listed in her list, so I'm wondering if I don't have that read wrong.
Basically, I feel like she's coasting in the middle of the pack, and that itself puts me on edge. I am not seeing effort to get out front and lead a case or do real deep scum hunting. But some of her opinions and thoughts are quite solid, so I am conflicted on her to sort her.

Spoiler:

He was also absent from all wagons on D1. After this was pointed out, he stated that he takes a long time with deciding his votes. Then he behaves totally different than he did D1 and starts joining wagons.

Spoiler:

First quote: yeah, she's kinda scummy but I don't wanna hammer yet, let's see what she says.

Inbetween the two quotes I've provided, Boring responds to her case.

Second quote: I find you scummy for all of these reasons, but I'm still not sure ya know am I right town?.

More FoS.

Shadow_step - Has an aggressive town persona. A hint of grandiosity. I haven't seen this behavior before with scum.
eagerSnake - He's got a most-likely-town claim. If he's still alive tomorrow, he'll probably be bumped way down because he's pretty useless

These were Boring's top two town reads at one point. She flipped on her second top town read as soon as her first CC'ed him on a modifier, without further investigation. I find that questionable.
I am further surprised that not a single person brought up that she was willing to trash her town reads that quickly. But w/e.

Anyway, I want to hear what Boring has to say once she comes back; my gut wants her to be scum (hello conf-bias) but I can't justify just throwing down the hammer without giving her a chance to say her piece.

@boring
Anyway, here's my take on your play so far:
You've been in the middle of two trains - PP and Eager. Never the head of either - the player leading the charge for the lynch. While you were on PP, you didn't talk about him much at all or advocate for that train to move forwards. You mostly seemed to be talking to Grendel. (I kind of liked your evaluation of Grendel's conciliatory post to Gamma, actually 623).
However that suspicion also never seemed to get pushed based the suspicion phase.

At the time of the CC, you had Eager as your number 2 town read, after SS at number one. That suggests, to me, that you didn't have a lot of skepticism about his claim. Furthermore, I find "He survived the night, he must be scum" to be a really awful way to evaluate PR's (since it depends on the playstyle of the scum team on whether they are risk averse or not, which is hidden information). It makes it really easy for scum to try to lynch PR's by building up mistrust.

So, when you immediately flipped on him as soon as the CC happens, that seems scummy to me. You didn't take the time to re-evaluate the read or look for other indications on whether he was scummy. Just 'Oh counterclaim yup top scum' and a vote. There wasn't evidence of skepticism or evaluation. If someone counterclaims one of my top town reads, I am always going to try and think carefully about why my town read might have been wrong, or if something else is afoot.

So, I don't think you've done a lot of active scum hunting, haven't been an evangelist for the trains you've been on, and I question your sudden certainty on Eager-scum. Those things add up to my gut thinking you're playing a happy coincidence of two town having the same role modifier, and you get a free mislynch.
However, the logical case hasn't caught up to my gut and I am wary of just interpreting events into conf-bias land. So I'm not entirely convinced that you're the villain quite yet - at least not until we've had a chance to chat a bit more.

Spoiler:

On D2 he had this to say about Boring.

It reads like 1) more FoS and 2) reaaaaaaaly wonky considering he didn't actually 'inquisit' Boring any further for the rest of the day.

[quote="In post 1592, Zoronos"
Boring - Her posting was mostly defensive, we went over this in detail yesterday about why he read flipped. She didn't seem to do any work to suss out which of Eager and SS were the correct lynch, she just followed her top read SS to turn on her second to top read. I was in the middle of inquisiting this a bit when the hammer came down, but there we are.
[/quote]

[nn30]

40 minutes later - no response from Zoro.

Talking to Boring in day chat and coming up with a plan are we?

[nn30]

Funny timing on him no longer replying too. Pretty snappy conversation up until I accused him of being scum.

[Zoronos]

*sigh*
I should learn to ignore dumb questions. If you have a question about my actual scum reads, feel free to pose it.

-----------------------
To Implosion et al:
If Boring flips vanilla scum, I can see two ways forward.
1) My original read is correct and DF is the second scum. If boring is vanilla scum it probably doesn't matter anyway since I'll get blocked there and there will be a false "clear" on DF which means whatever tack I take here is meaningless.
2) NN is scum and is trying to bait the jail by attacking me, knowing that he's Strongman (or a roleblocker with priority), and is hoping to get me to declare him my target so he can claim a clear tomorrow.
Basically - If I die tonight, and boring doesn't flip a blocking role, ignore whatever results from my jail. Until we get more setup info from scum flips, using my results-so-far for clears is a bad plan.

If boring flips anything w/ JK evasion:
An hour ago I'd have said that I'm sticking with my gut and jailing DF. NN's nonsense posting here makes me want to just call him scum and jail him, but that's likely my frustration / perception of his shortsightedness. And playing off frustration isn't a long term good so. It also undermines the possible scenario where he's explicitly trying to bait out the jail, since that relies on boring being a goon, which decreases the scum motivation for the play.
So, boring flipping something that would prevent JK'ing strongly indicates a DF jail is the best plan, imo.

If boring flips town:
I was right, but saying 'I told you so' seems a bit inappropriate given the track record so far. I'll probably just yolo jail and hope to get lucky.


--------------
Thoughts on others:
I still rate ShadowStep as unlikely to be scum. It would take a lot of premeditation to run his D1 play. I've seen the 'anti charistmatic' scum line run before, but not in the direct insult case, only in the 'insult accusers' case. It doesn't match SS's behavior here I feel.
Prism has brownie points galore for the LUV lynch. I don't feel he's a smart lynch.
Implosion - Definitely scum we should totally lynch him.