Breaking from my normal rule of conciseness as I don't have time to get it worded optimally. This one's pretty stream of though..
My townread on nn30 has honestly been very much mired in confirmation bias but I don't think that means it's wrong. I started townreading them sometime either late Day 1 or early Day 2 and from there there's just been constant affirmations to the fact dealing with demeanor/the timing of certain posts. They were fakeable but I found it unlikely, as they were basically exactly what I wouldn't expect from nn scum at exactly the right times. If he's scum he's a borderline psychic which is why I called him god at a keyboard. Based off Implosion's statements regarding nn30 he probably understands what I mean. Yeah, my read is largely tonebased and may be an exaggeration, and at some point I might have to read through a nn30 scumgame or really go through interactions with LUV/earlier boring interactions but that's a lot of effort for something that will probably wind up pointless.
The only reasons I can see for nn30 are the boring/Zoronos interactions the last few pages. The former feels like bad distancing, the latter scum is kind of forced to throw shade on Zoro here if there's no circumvention, or if boring is that circumvention. I find both unlikely given nn's readiness to lynch boring until her selfhammer shenanigans.
In post 2976, BlackVoid wrote:I don't Penguin was likely to get mislynched at all. I think people realized how well his role fit into the setup. Without it, town would be underpowered.
This really isn't immediately relevant to anyone's alignment I think as DF/nn30/you all would have made that kill, but I definitely wasn't sold on him being town, especially given that scum claiming all VT there was bad play with a jailkeeper in the mix (I probably would have fakeclaimed BP after the deputy claim to cast doubt on one). Part of the purpose of my
#2699 and
#2802 were in the hopes that they'd nightkill him over Zoronos who I suggested as the "likely kill". Jailkeeper is about as valuable as deputy given how likely I thought we were to lynch scum, but in my opinion Zoronos had a higher chance of being town than PP did at the time.
Finally having read Dierfire: Going through I see nothing suggesting he's not scum with boring/LUV,
#2070 makes a case for lynching LUV only to backtrack and give a vote on boring that wasn't happening. Despite saying in
#2194 that 1. He didn't believe LUV's claim 2. He saw no convincing reason to put it off. he still didn't hammer him.
#2277, the first post after the LUV flip where DF kept his vote on boring, is all about justifying townreads. At the end he says he'd like to vote Grendel or boring and picks Grendel despite not mentioning him the entire post.
To be honest I don't think anything here is a strong affirmative to go for Dierfire, but I really don't see a reason not to. Nothing about LUV/boring and DF tell me that's not the team and everyone else has towntold harder. If I were to go more indepth and find deeper reasoning to scumread him not based off of PoE I imagine it's there but DF is clearly no slouch at staying rational or consistent. His townread on me despite it being advantageous to walk back awhile ago is probably the only plus in his favor, but at this point it's looking more like a failed bet.
The last 2/3 pages I'm too tired to go through, I see more on roleblockers & strongmen, and I see more speculation as to the setup. I don't really want to get into it, I think I already explained my point about nn30's interactions with boring, and why I find it unlikely that Black faked the reads. Black townreading me for that replace out makes 0 sense if he's mafia because all he'd have to do is just not mess up and ride into the sunset, and townreading me as scum has the potential to backfire.
I'm not 100% sold that there's guaranteed a JK via the setup (I still think ascetics are powerful in their own right and we don't know the scum PRs, if any) but the doubt being thrown on Zoros suddenly isn't the best idea. Being paranoid is how we throw away a free win. Save it for 3/5 way LyLo. In the event boring is a circumvention PR or scum have none, scum throwing shade on Zoro is literally their only chance to win. boring's last statement on him is a pretty obvious WIFOM in my opinion and I think he's more likely town for it. 0 reason to even draw attention to her partner here, I would have told her to keep quiet long ago for reasons like this below:
In post 3004, boring wrote:Actually, @Prism - What do you think of nn's sudden turn on Zoronos?
I guess you being scum would also explain why you're so very twitchy about the slightest hints that you might be scum, and why you always try to force others to do the research for you. It's a pretty typical power play, and it's something I've been observing all game. I had pretty much chalked it down to your personality, but if someone's doing a meta dive, they might as well check for that.
If nn is your partner over DF you did him a pretty big disservice with this, not that I'm going to lynch him before DF but maybe if we keep going. If you were trying to irritate me Shadow-style with that last part, it didn't work.
tl;dr: I'm still not convinced it's anyone but Dierfire, and I don't see any reason to pore over nn's meta and Shadow/Zoronos's ISOs when we don't even know if we need to yet. Hammer away.