Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

[nn30]

I don't know why you guys are asking permission...

[Dierfire]

I believe that Prism was intending to return with content shortly.

I suppose that I could drop the hammer anyway as Prism is likely to survive to share content, but that seems rude to me.

[BlackVoid]

Same here. But she's at L-2. It's more a question of putting her in self-hammer range just in case anyone had anything really pressing.

[Prism]

Go ahead and hammer, I'm not even sure if I'll get around to it as sad as that is. I don't see myself backtracking on boring anyway-anything I can see about DF/Black/nn/Zoro can wait until after we see the flip.

I'm assuming Zoro outed his jail already, which I think he did as DF.

[Prism]

I'm going to feel kind of bad if it just ends on this note with DF getting autoloss and me never reading him but I mean nothing is saving boring here FMPOV regardless of what I can envision him saying.

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: Boring (Lynch - 1)

[Prism]

Thinking about it more this almost certainly isn't scum autoloss, I forgot about boring's selfhammer shenanigans. The only way it's scum autoloss is if she really thought it was L-1, which given her playstyle seems unlikely.

[Prism]

I actually have some time now so give me a bit.

[implosion]

I really have no new thoughts. Zoronos *is not* scum. Setup makes that evident. He's going to die tonight anyway so it's a moot point.

I'm gonna hammer once prism posts whatever prism is posting if i'm online.

[Zoronos]

I really have no new thoughts. Zoronos *is not* scum. Setup makes that evident. He's going to die tonight anyway so it's a moot point.

I'm gonna hammer once prism posts whatever prism is posting if i'm online.

I asked a half question to you last night, not surprised that it got missed since I phrased it poorly, but I'm curious for your perspective at the moment.
I'm struggling because I'm sitting here looking at one PoE read, and a 'Something in my town pile is wrong'.
Is my PoE also garbage, or did I get two town calls wrong? (looking for opinion and thoughts)

[Prism]

Just posting to confirm I'm still here and planning to post, I'm just multitasking and taking awhile to go through.

[Prism]

Breaking from my normal rule of conciseness as I don't have time to get it worded optimally. This one's pretty stream of though..

My townread on nn30 has honestly been very much mired in confirmation bias but I don't think that means it's wrong. I started townreading them sometime either late Day 1 or early Day 2 and from there there's just been constant affirmations to the fact dealing with demeanor/the timing of certain posts. They were fakeable but I found it unlikely, as they were basically exactly what I wouldn't expect from nn scum at exactly the right times. If he's scum he's a borderline psychic which is why I called him god at a keyboard. Based off Implosion's statements regarding nn30 he probably understands what I mean. Yeah, my read is largely tonebased and may be an exaggeration, and at some point I might have to read through a nn30 scumgame or really go through interactions with LUV/earlier boring interactions but that's a lot of effort for something that will probably wind up pointless.

The only reasons I can see for nn30 are the boring/Zoronos interactions the last few pages. The former feels like bad distancing, the latter scum is kind of forced to throw shade on Zoro here if there's no circumvention, or if boring is that circumvention. I find both unlikely given nn's readiness to lynch boring until her selfhammer shenanigans.

I don't Penguin was likely to get mislynched at all. I think people realized how well his role fit into the setup. Without it, town would be underpowered.

This really isn't immediately relevant to anyone's alignment I think as DF/nn30/you all would have made that kill, but I definitely wasn't sold on him being town, especially given that scum claiming all VT there was bad play with a jailkeeper in the mix (I probably would have fakeclaimed BP after the deputy claim to cast doubt on one). Part of the purpose of my #2699 and #2802 were in the hopes that they'd nightkill him over Zoronos who I suggested as the "likely kill". Jailkeeper is about as valuable as deputy given how likely I thought we were to lynch scum, but in my opinion Zoronos had a higher chance of being town than PP did at the time.

Finally having read Dierfire: Going through I see nothing suggesting he's not scum with boring/LUV, #2070 makes a case for lynching LUV only to backtrack and give a vote on boring that wasn't happening. Despite saying in #2194 that 1. He didn't believe LUV's claim 2. He saw no convincing reason to put it off. he still didn't hammer him. #2277, the first post after the LUV flip where DF kept his vote on boring, is all about justifying townreads. At the end he says he'd like to vote Grendel or boring and picks Grendel despite not mentioning him the entire post.

To be honest I don't think anything here is a strong affirmative to go for Dierfire, but I really don't see a reason not to. Nothing about LUV/boring and DF tell me that's not the team and everyone else has towntold harder. If I were to go more indepth and find deeper reasoning to scumread him not based off of PoE I imagine it's there but DF is clearly no slouch at staying rational or consistent. His townread on me despite it being advantageous to walk back awhile ago is probably the only plus in his favor, but at this point it's looking more like a failed bet.

The last 2/3 pages I'm too tired to go through, I see more on roleblockers & strongmen, and I see more speculation as to the setup. I don't really want to get into it, I think I already explained my point about nn30's interactions with boring, and why I find it unlikely that Black faked the reads. Black townreading me for that replace out makes 0 sense if he's mafia because all he'd have to do is just not mess up and ride into the sunset, and townreading me as scum has the potential to backfire.

I'm not 100% sold that there's guaranteed a JK via the setup (I still think ascetics are powerful in their own right and we don't know the scum PRs, if any) but the doubt being thrown on Zoros suddenly isn't the best idea. Being paranoid is how we throw away a free win. Save it for 3/5 way LyLo. In the event boring is a circumvention PR or scum have none, scum throwing shade on Zoro is literally their only chance to win. boring's last statement on him is a pretty obvious WIFOM in my opinion and I think he's more likely town for it. 0 reason to even draw attention to her partner here, I would have told her to keep quiet long ago for reasons like this below:

Actually, @Prism - What do you think of nn's sudden turn on Zoronos?

I guess you being scum would also explain why you're so very twitchy about the slightest hints that you might be scum, and why you always try to force others to do the research for you. It's a pretty typical power play, and it's something I've been observing all game. I had pretty much chalked it down to your personality, but if someone's doing a meta dive, they might as well check for that.

If nn is your partner over DF you did him a pretty big disservice with this, not that I'm going to lynch him before DF but maybe if we keep going. If you were trying to irritate me Shadow-style with that last part, it didn't work.

tl;dr: I'm still not convinced it's anyone but Dierfire, and I don't see any reason to pore over nn's meta and Shadow/Zoronos's ISOs when we don't even know if we need to yet. Hammer away.

[implosion]

@Zoronos, I answered it vaguely here:

I honestly have a mental block right now where it's really just hard to see anyone other than boring/dier as scum.

One of your townreads is certainly wrong by numbers... and I'm certainly a person who has a lot of experience with too-many-townreads syndrome. I'm going to have that problem if either boring or dier flips town. But I'm not sure at a high level whether one of your reads + your poe are wrong or two of your reads are wrong. It all comes down to the individuals. My overall thoughts on individuals right now are something like:

boring/dier: poe scum/boring is scummy in her own right.

Blackvoid: shadow's play makes little sense as scum. Blackvoid's play slightly increases that townread to me (though not nearly as much as it was pre-existing).
nn: I have a hard time seeing the method in which he's been aggressive as scum-motivated. He also feels like he's been just too actively transparent.
Prism: I honestly am not sure where my townread on prism has come from at this point but no one else really thinks prism is scum so I haven't really had motivation to question it. Some combination of the way they pushed me early, the way they asked to replace out, the way they generally feel like they're trying to make things more transparent.
You (Zoronos): Town because 2 power roles (really effectively one power role split across two players) is not enough in 3:10 especially w/ ascetics.

So yeah. If this flips town then -hitoshrug- and i'll cry myself to sleep and re-evaluate tomorrow.

VOTE: boring

[Zoronos]

I assume that's hammer?
Well, if I ~mysteriously die~ overnight, my primary suspicion is DF.
Regardless of NN's sudden push tonight, I think DF is the more likely scum just from a a 'effort expended' perspective, so if I fail to block the kill and die, that's my next thought. I don't feel great about what happens if that's wrong though. Too many 'what if' scenarios at this point.
GL!

[Zoronos]

My main worry is that I went into this segment of the game town reading Boring for her push on LUV, and for playing anti-opportunistically. Normally I use those as indicators of town play.
If she flips scum, that means my other town reads are similarly suspect, and that's more than a little worrying.
I guess you guys are giving less town cred for the LUV train than I was, so may it matters less overall and you're not going to fall into the trap.

[Prism]

You need to be on your claimed jail regardless tonight.

Best case: boring flips strongman, we know you're real because why would there be a strongman without a town protection role. Anyone you jail is either clear or scum (Scum can't NK two nights in a row and is thus forced to give us the clear or the second ML night 2).

Worst case: boring flips goon or traitor, there may or may not be a strongman. You lose nothing by outing your jail beforehand as scum circumventing it or not is predetermined. If you die we may or may not lynch your kill regardless.

If boring flips town go ahead and yolojail but that selfhammer gives that practically a 0% chance. Scum cannot do anything with the knowledge of your jail.

[Zoronos]

I went through my jail thought process earlier. As much as emotional response wants to sway me the logic chain I posted earlier is, I believe, sound. I intend to follow it.

[podoboq]

Official Vote Count 4.09

Lynching

FINAL

boring (4): Prism, nn30, BlackVoid, implosion
Dierfire (1): boring

Not Voting (2): Dierfire, Zoronos

V/LA: boring

Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-27 11:30:00)

[podoboq]

boring, Mafia Neapolitan, was lynched Day 4.

It is now Night 4. Please PM all night actions to me by the deadline, or bold them in your associated private thread.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-19 08:42:00)

[podoboq]

Zoronos, Town Jailkeeper, died Night 4.

Day 5 begins

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-03 09:00:00)

[podoboq]

Official Vote Count 5.00

Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Anybody (0):

Not Voting (5): BlackVoid, Dierfire, implosion, nn30, Prism

V/LA: Prism

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-03 09:00:00)

[Prism]

Neopolitan flip makes strongman less likely but still seems weird to me to have no direct counter to either the jailkeeper or the cops. I was really hoping for a no death and swift end, at this point the game feels solved and I've lost excitement for it.

Scum still probably DF as I don't think BlackVoid is scum and instant thought to the flip is that nn30 bussing such a strong scum PR day 1 is nearly unthinkable. It also makes me wonder why they all claimed VT (unless Black is mafia) given that they had 2 or 3 results. I had a bit more speculation with the Neo typed up but it wasn't useful other than to as a "next time" lecture.

I thought about holding off on voting DF pending more setup discussion but I see no point. I think Strongman DF is more likely than scum nn or scum Black.

VOTE: Dierfire

I'm V/LA until probably Monday.

[nn30]

How does priority work with jailkeeper and the NK? If Zoro chose the correct target, would he still die?

[implosion]

How does priority work with jailkeeper and the NK? If Zoro chose the correct target, would he still die?

If zoro jailed scum-dier and scum-dier killed zoro, zoro would live, assuming dier isn't a power role.

I am actually pretty inclined to think dier is town now... I can't think of any role he could be that makes sense. But might as well ask.

@Mod: what's the priority resolution on simultaneous roleblocks? i.e., if there's a mafia roleblocker who kills and blocks someone, and that person is a roleblocker or jailkeeper who blocks the mafia back, what would happen?

[implosion]

He's not a full strongman. That's *WAY* too powerful. Makes the jailkeeper a negative-utility PR until he dies.
He's not a full roleblocker. Also way too powerful, and mutual roleblocks are often avoided as a design principle.
He's not an x-shot strongman because he'd likely have used his shots already and I still think it seems too much.
He's not an x-shot roleblocker for the same reason, he'd already have blocked on previous nights I think.

I've been burned way too recently by taking the paranoid approach of "well, this person would have to be a mafia strongman to be scum, but that's probably the case." Literally that exact line of thinking got me to mishammer at 3p lylo, and it got me thinking about pr pseudoresults in general. That game was somewhat different because it turned out that the jailkeeper claimant was scum but the principle is the same. I think we need to trust the jailkeep. My instinct is that {cop, deputy, jailkeeper, ascetic, ascetic} vs {neapolitan, goon, goon} is balanced enough. It's only three town power roles; that's basically the bare minimum that will be accepted in a 13p mini normal anyway.

I'm gonna need to re-evaluate everything here, I think. Which is a little awkward since I'm V/LA Sunday-Friday. But hopefully I'll be able to find time/energy during that. If not then I will afterwards.