Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

[podoboq]

Official Vote Count 5.01

Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Dierfire (1): Prism

Not Voting (4): BlackVoid, Dierfire, implosion, nn30

V/LA: Prism

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-03 09:00:00)

[nn30]

The good news is we have 2 shots at this lynch. From implosions perspective and just rando-lynching from among remaining players we have a 50/50 shot. Odds are actually better than that assuming Implo has correctly pegged a townie.

[podoboq]

@Mod: what's the priority resolution on simultaneous roleblocks? i.e., if there's a mafia roleblocker who kills and blocks someone, and that person is a roleblocker or jailkeeper who blocks the mafia back, what would happen?

Roleblocks resolve before protects and kills. Therefore, in your hypothetical situation, both players would be roleblocked simultaneously, and lose all other actions. Nobody would be killed, and nobody would be protected by the Jailkeeper (though they would still lose their remaining night actions. Note that other mods might resolve this differently, but I believe this is the most straightforward and fair way to resolve mutual roleblocking scenarios.

[nn30]

My inclanation is that, via POE, it must be Dier
Prism wouldn't sub out as scum and BlackVoid feels towny. If we're wrong about dier I say we lynch BV next. This is obviously leaving a substantial blindspot in Prism but I don't think I'm wrong there.

Does anyone NOT think Dier should be today's lynch?

[BlackVoid]

A full roleblocker and a neapolitan seem overpowered against a cop, deputy, and jailkeeper. I wondered if there was an x-shot roleblocker but what I really think makes sense is some type of mafia ascetic.

Having two town ascetics and one mafia ascetic could create quite a bit of confusion, nerf the power roles (because without a roleblocker, this seems mildly townsided). That's what I'm guessing the last mafia is and the game fits together really well in that scenario.

[nn30]

Ascetic would also explain Zoro being dead given the fact that he was planning on jailing dier.

He was planning on jailing Dier, right?

[nn30]

This feels a little bit too easy, but I think it's just Dier here.

VOTE: dierfire

His [post]2955[/vote] doesn't make a whole lot of consistent sense. His spoiler tag, where he discusses myself and Prism, mentions a number of times that I'm unlikely to be mafia. Yet his summary has me in his 2nd most likely scum team.

I posted a case on him a while back which his response was largely 'yeah, that's a thing.'

My only trepidation here is that it just feels too easy.

BlackVoid has felt towny since subbing in. When LUV was flailing for a counter-wagon he put a vote on Shadow_Step (and also chose to scum read Shadow_Step on D1 based on my admittadly thin reasonings). These make me think BV is town now.

Implosion is conf!town. So there goes that.


Moderator note: A paragraph in this post has been redacted for breaking site rules. No further action will be taken. I cannot go into further detail at this time.


EDIT: Now that both games have completed, I can explain further. The paragraph is now at the bottom of this post. It refers to an ongoing game, one which nn30 had replaced into. Players in that game could use his post here to town read him, as only town would need to "peg scum." It's a town slip. This is why referring to ongoing games is illegal, no matter how minor you think it is.

Spoiler:

I ISO'd Prism and his first two posts of the game have LUV and Boring as high priority scum. Frankly, this was the scummiest thing about him (as it could set him up for bussing later on). That said people who sub in tend to just peg scum. Having that bird's eye view of the game makes it easier to do - I just did it in a game I subbed into (and I found instances on the wiki which point to this idea as well.)

[nn30]

2955

[implosion]

Scum ascetic is stronger than scum strongman. Completely counters the jk while it's alive *AND* partially counters the cop/deputy.

[nn30]

^ indeed.

[nn30]

@Implosion - in the event that a case for intent / hammer happens quicker than we expect, you should prepare a list of thoughts about the game under the presumption that Dier flips town.

If he flips scum, well, the game is probably just over.
If he flips town, you're probably not going to survive to share that perspective with us. Being conf!town makes you a high priority night kill if not the only logical choice for scum to go for tonight.

[Prism]

Mafia doesn't have an ascetic for reasons listed by Implosion. I obviously disagree on the strongman point-scum having no counter to not just one but two cops and a jailkeeper does not seem balanced to me. X-night/oneshot strongman seems likely to me and while I hope Zoro jailed DF but the way he said "If boring flips a blocking role" does not inspire me with confidence that he didn't jail me or BV instead. People seem to be viewing ascetic as a negative utility role which is not necessarily true-any separate title for role has power in itself, but there's more. Purpose of the ascetics was to counter the scum neopolitan. While it works against town's cops too, I find it difficult to see a setup in which scum only has neo, where it has town counters via ascetics and JK (three ways to block), and scum has no counter to cops or JK except through JK jailing a cop.

[Prism]

And I agree with nn, there's no real reason to rush this lynch, getting our eggs out of one basket in case he flips town is a good idea as long as we don't spend the time being paranoid and swapping away.

[Prism]

UNVOTE:

[implosion]

It's not two cops. It's one cop at a time. The deputy does literally nothing if it dies before the cop does, which will happen ~1/2 the time. That's WAY weaker than two cops.

And the scum don't lack a counter. They have a flipped neapolitan who can potentially locate the hiding cop before they can get their results out, or either of the other PRs. The ascetics are sort-of there to counter the neapolitan but at the same time they really don't? If the neapolitan targets an ascetic they don't get a result of "not a vanilla townie", they get a result of "no result." If they were, say, millers, or macho townies, or some other negative-utility role then they'd do much more to counter the neapolitan. The neapolitan still gets, essentially, no false positives or false negatives - just two people for whom they get no result.

This:

and while I hope Zoro jailed DF but the way he said "If boring flips a blocking role" does not inspire me with confidence that he didn't jail me or BV instead

is somewhat true. But I am nowhere near as brimming with confidence in a dier-scumflip as I'd like to be.

Will try to get more detailed thoughts out there but I can tell you now they're going to amount to "if dier is town then i don't have any good clue." Prism is town for voting patterns and contributions and etc, nn is town for his play yesterday and the jailkeep on him last night and etc, bv is town because lol shadow d1 scum? no.

If dier is town then the last scum has my kudos for stumping me.

[Dierfire]

Does anyone NOT think Dier should be today's lynch?

Ha ha, I don't!

In seriousness, I understand that I'm likely to be lynched today. My most recent thoughts are in 2955, but the Neapolitan flip concerns me because it means that Town Ascetic does have some positive utility in this game, and obviously if BlackVoid were a Traitor we would have won the game by now.

Today is a busy day for me, but I'll make some time to read again tomorrow and see if I come up with anything.

[BlackVoid]

What worried me about your posts D4 were that you wrote a lot of stuff without concretely saying that anyone is scum. I want to see you make direct accusations.

[podoboq]

Official Vote Count 5.02

Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Dierfire (1): nn30

Not Voting (4): BlackVoid, Dierfire, implosion, Prism

V/LA: Prism

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-03 09:00:00)

[nn30]

Pre-emptive prod dodge.

Still waiting Dier.

[Dierfire]

@BlackVoid

What worried me about your posts D4 were that you wrote a lot of stuff without concretely saying that anyone is scum. I want to see you make direct accusations.

This doesn't sound true to me! I thought that my 2955 was very clear; I was reading boring strongly as Mafia, I listed you as the most likely partner, and I gave reasons for those things. I listed nn30 as the next most likely partner, and I gave reasons for that. I listed Prism as an unlikely partner, and I gave reasons for that. Did you have any comment about the reasons that I gave?

I've not finished reading the entire game again, but my current thought is that you are most likely to be Mafia--there is my accusation.

I feel that my strongest point is the behavior that Lil Uzi Vert exhibited in voting for your slot rather than eagerSnake after the two claims.

[nn30]

@Dier - two questions.

1) Your 2955 included much exposition about how I'm unlikely to be mafia. However, your read list ended up stating that I was the next most likely scum team with Boring. What gives?

2) Why does LUV vote for his partner over a townie in this situation?

[Dierfire]

For the first, there's a limited pool of players! Certainly you'll see that I'm more confident that implosion is Town, and obviously I know that I am Town. So, you are the second most likely player to be Mafia just because I find you more suspicious than Prism. (If the phrasing is creating difficulty, I could also say that you were more likely to be partners with boring than Zoronos or implosion were, and you will see that "unlikely to be Mafia" still has you in the bottom half of the list).

For the second, I think that Lil Uzi Vert was scared to have all three Mafia votes on eagerSnake.

[Prism]

or the second, I think that Lil Uzi Vert was scared to have all three Mafia votes on eagerSnake.

nn30 never voted EagerSnake so your logic isn't matching up here, assuming nn30 would be your pick for the day.

Given that boring has flipped neopolitan I find it really unlikely that nn30 kept his vote on her Day 1.

[Prism]

Sorry, I somehow missed that that first post was directed at Black Void. Ignore that last question.

[Prism]

I just realized I missed all of #2995 too, Jesus Christ, I'll do a better review in the morning. I knew I was being lazy but clearly it's costing me more than I thought.