Micro 662: ArcAngel's Twin Trap Mafia (Ended)

[Pine]

Hello all!

/confirm

VOTE: Pine

Ermagerd! Ya suck!

Vote ThinkBig

[Pine]

I admit it, I am a scumfuck. You caught me!

[Pine]

You are, bro. Didn't we talk about this pre-game?

Whoops! Game solved on page 1. Shortest game ever.

GG Town.

[Pine]

I'm actually reminded of the strategy that scum sometimes use where they vote their scumpartner as a means of distancing

Yeah, no. ThinkBig and I just finished a game together and we were dicking around.

Unvote
Vote MisaTange

For making something out of nothing.

[Pine]

Ugh, equivocating. Either you meant it or you didn't.

I'm out of RVS. This guy is scum.

[Pine]

No scumhunting before flips. Really.

Hey, why don't we completely abdicate all of Town's agency!

[Pine]

Actually, I Townread uncertainty. Only scum has any kind of certainty right now. Admitting you're wrong, backing up and re-evaluating, that's a Townish thing. So we're going to wipe your slate clean, MisaTange, and chalk this up to you being a newbie. Maybe you're even net Townish from this? Yeah, maybe a little.

Back to RVS, I guess. I got no leads.

Maybe we lynch the Terminator.

Unvote
Vote Arnold

[Pine]

i just realized people from here scumread uncertainty

whelp

Actually, I feel this needs to be addressed more.

Bad

mafia players scumread uncertainty. Regrettably, in the 1.5 years I've been away, this site has been invaded by shitposting, overconfident newbies whose game has no sophistication. I'm not one of them, so I feel it's my responsibility to correct the damage they seem to have caused. Don't scumread uncertainty (when it appears genuine - this can be faked). Use discernment and don't let your head get too wedged up your own ass. Confirmation bias, tunneling, and an inability to re-evaluate your own reads are all signs of someone who doesn't have any real game.

#MissionToCivilize

[Pine]

[quote=TB's profile]Total posts: 298 (0.00% of all posts / 4.14 posts per day)[/quote]
You'll get there, kid. You've got a decent start.

[Pine]

I've actually experienced the exact opposite recently. People SR confidence just as equally.

Qualified agreement. Overconfidence is one thing. That can be a play style, and a methodology for pushing a read. Broad, unjustified overconfidence is scummy. I see players who declare (in a serious, not at all joking tone) that they have the game solved four pages in, with shitty non-reasons for each. Town has zero reason to ever be that confident that early. You know who does? The informed minority, aka scum.

[Pine]

Yes. Yes Arnold. Come with me if you want to lynch scum.

Okay. Who are we lynching?

You, toaster. Down with the skinjobs!

[Pine]

Lame game is lame so far. Most votes on the Cylon

[Pine]

First serious vote. SA goes that overboard making a bullshit case in RVS? Nah. This smacks of someone eager to fabricate reasoning, rather than spotting something real.

Vote Sleepless Assassin

[Pine]

Way to take things out of context. That was merely the start of a conversation in which I ultimately decided I was misreading Misa. As for 'first' serious vote, I'd forgotten about it. 54 is my second serious vote, first I'm going to stand by.

[Pine]

VOTE: Sleepless Assassin

Cause I feel like that was an opportunistic case by scum rather than town

Your argument falls flat when you realize that I wasn't scumleaning Pine/TB at all. Not from the beginning, not at the end of page one. If I had been scumleaning Pine/TB due to their RvS exchange, I would have voted for one of the two in my 15. You've made a PBPA of my current iso, but you haven't noted that my vote was on Tyler the

entire time before this post

... I.E: Someone who hasn't posted at all.

This post's vote is my first serious vote.

I repeat,

I never believed TB/Pine was scummy at all.

Not even a gut-scumlean. I never suspected Pine/TB due to 15. In fact, Pine is a gut-townread atm (due to 25, willingness to help a newbie, but I also recognize that can come from scum as well).

I only needed to point that out in the world (as in: I recognize that Pine/TB might be universally-townread in this game, which I'm okay about atm) that town finds TB/Pine to be scummy enough for a lynch, Pine/TB's RvS exchange might be some means of getting to their partner, especially if their partner shows sign of scummy behavior. It's future-evidence, if you will. It's nothing to pursue because if we applied that scumtell to right about now in three-page, just-out-of-RvS, we're doomed to fail, even with the basic questions of "Is this scum-intentioned? Is this town-intentioned?"

Which is why I sounded noncommittal before that post.

Me pointing out those two RvS votes were in no means a way to properly scumhunt.

How am I able to scumhunt when literally all of the events of this thread are literally:

• RvS > Pine suspecting me due to 15
  
• Pine suspecting me due to 15 > RvS
  
• RvS > SA suspecting me due to 15

If you're suspecting me just because I'm not scumhunting, then it's fair for me to suspect you because you're tunnelling.

The others have been just asking questions which is NAI, and Kop promised to post since yesterday but that is also NAI (especially as I'm still assuming that everyone's busy with Thanksgiving).

^My gut reaction to this is that it may be distancing/tactical bussing. It just plain smells fishy that they're so dead-set against one another. I've had very successful scum games where we come out strong against one another right from the start. Whoever wins coasts on early scumlynch.

PEdit - Reaching? Not at all. You quoted specifically the one thing that supported your position, ignoring the posts following it which explained the context surrounding the voluntary negation of that point. That's like, definitionally out of context.

[Pine]

Yeah I'm getting a strong tactical bussing vibe. At the very least, I feel confident that this dispute is not Town vs Town

[Pine]

Lame game is lame so far. Most votes on the Cylon

Who?

Arnold. A Cylon is a robot imitating a person, from Battlestar Galactica. Because I was calling Arnold Terminator earlier. It was an RVS joke, because I didn't have any leads. We're past it.

Being defensive is indeed a scum tell. Town care less for personal survival, more for investigating and lynching scum. If you drop everything as Town to defend yourself against an attack, you're Towning wrong.

[Pine]

[img]https://media4.giphy.com/media/GfAD7Bl016Gfm/200_s.gif[/b]

Undue

defensiveness is a scumtell. If a Townie is under heavy attack from something that can be countered and defeated, they should defend against it. When a player moves into full-scale, drop everything else defense mode after one or two votes or a weak case not going anywhere, it's a sign that they have no investment in pushing Town objectives, only in not getting lynched themselves. That's a scum motivation.

[Pine]

Boooo. Image fail. Fortunately, my image applies equally to my tag fail and your interpretation fail.

[Pine]

Wtf are you on about? Tactical bussing works just fine in micros. If you do it in a larger game, it looks odd when the survivor lasts a long time. In a micro, you only have to run Town for a couple of days.

[Pine]

Shrug. I'm just saying it looks fishy. Until evidence suggests otherwise, they're both my suspects.

It definitely doesn't look Town vs Town, so they both need rope.

[Pine]

Shrug. I'm just saying it looks fishy. Until evidence suggests otherwise, they're both my suspects.

It definitely doesn't look Town vs Town, so they both need rope.

So are you saying it's Scum vs Town, or are you implying it could be scum theatre and it's scum vs scum?

Judging this post, your implying it's the latter, if both need rope.

It could conceivably be TvS, but the whole argument feels contrived and forced. This implies that one or both are scum. I've been saying this right along, are you not reading?

[Pine]

Nah.

SA or Misa.

[Pine]

Lil Uzi Vert, I agree with your assessment that there is not enough content right now to deduce anything substantial. BUT, the stance you have taken because of the lack of information is exactly what I advise against. You say you don't feel like voting anybody. Specifically you don't want to vote Sleepless Assassin, MisaTange, and Pine. Sleepless Assassin is the most relevant of these three because he has the most votes right now.

There is not enough content, yes. So, anyone has a 2 out of 9 chance to be scum. If you run the numbers, you will find a 2 out of 9 chance is good enough for the town at this point. If you feel apathetic, just join the bandwagon. Then the content will come.

What the fuck is this scumfuckery

Unvote

This looks a LOT like a scumbuddy trying to push a rudderless player onto the less damaging of two options.

I am still of the opinion that SA/MT is not Town vs Town, so that suggests a MT/Milkshake scumteam.

Game solved. You're welcome.

Vote MisaTange

[Pine]

Sleepless Assassin should agree with this vote. Bandwagons are good for making games come to life!

VOTE: Sleepless Assassin

Yeah, this supports it. Blatantly doesn't care about scumhunting, just wants to lynch someone.

In fact,

Unvote
Vote milkshake

I can come back to SA/MT, this is shiny and obvious.

[Pine]

Arnold mentioned Pine's comment that the exchange between MisaTange and Sleepless Assassin was "not town vs. town." I might as well note that I also didn't like Pine's comment. But I don't have any solid reads at this point.

I think the best stance at this point in the game is pro-lynching-anyone. The numbers back this up too. I think this strategy will serve the town well:

1. Bring someone to L-1
2. Listen to what they have to say
3. Someone hammers or someone doesn't. If the latter, repeat these steps.

This is also not a Town strategy.

[Pine]

You use the word 'random' a lot in that 'analysis'. Your entire premise regarding random wagons is predicated on the notion that they are random. When scum fabricates a reason to push a 'random' wagon, it ISN'T random. There's a reason that using provably random votes it banned.

Bullshit analysis is bullshit.

[Pine]

You've got it backwards. I think that there is 1-2 scum in {SA, Misa}, and milkshake's scummy pushing of SA over you makes SA Town and you the scumbuddy. You're the starting point, not the other way around.

[Pine]

Isn't doing something that has a lower than 50% chance (and because it has a lower than 50% chance) a fallacy?

No. That's not what a fallacy is. Learn to English.

[Pine]

No.

No, fuck off.

Take your moronic numbers and go.

Everything in those infantile percentages presumes randomness in the results, which is NOT factual. The results of games are not based on odds or calculations; if they were, it wouldn't be Mafia, it would be an Excel spreadsheet. Anything based on that sort of tripe would have Town subsume its agency to the will of fate, and allow only the Mafia a free hand to make changes. Why is it bullshit? Because it presumes that the Mafia are killing randomly.

They don't.

They kill threats to themselves, they kill active and influential Town, they target suspected Town PRs, and they let live people they think are easy to manipulate. None of that is factored into those odds, and calculations which ignore major variables are just bad science.

Fuck off with your bad science.

Unvote Milkshake
Vote Milkshake

Because that deserves to be voted all by itself.

/rant

[Pine]

[quote=Your stupid article]All are basic games, with Mafia and Townies only, starting with Night and assuming random lynchings and night kills. The numbers probably do not reflect what the actual outcome would be if real games were played, as they don't account for the Mafia giving themselves away through bad logic.[/quote]
I mean, even the author here tells you that those numbers are not to be taken seriously. It was clearly a thought exercise, or meant as a guide to trying to balance games from a modding perspective.
[quote=That thing again]Only games with probabilities between 30% and 70% are included (except for 5 players, where 25% is the closest to 50%).[/quote]
They even admit to fudging their numbers! How are you not only taking that seriously, but apparently as word of God?

It doesn't even include percentages for 7 Town/2 Mafia. It isn't valid for this game!

Fuck off. Fuck off for real.

[Pine]

Quote fail

Criticism remains valid.

[Pine]

Say I am today's lynch. Who is scum then on the world I flip town?

btw Pine I directed this to you

The SA/Misa dichotomy still works for my analysis. Milkshake, for anti-Town actions.

[Pine]

If there's nothing to be gained by talking, let's just random lynch. Hell, let's RL D2 as well. Then the day after that. Maybe we just turn this into an EpicMafia or Town of Salem satellite site while we're at it.

Fuck off. We don't neuter Town on this site. Get with the program or go back to where you came from.

[Pine]

Hey Vedith. Sheeping me here is the smart move.

[Pine]

The difference is that I'm not acting scummy. You people are.

Cautious opportunism = another scummy action.

MA/Milkshake. Game solved. Moar votes please.

[Pine]

I'm going to say my point more passionately this time. Then maybe I'll let it rest. Or maybe not!

Most of the "scum hunting" going on in this thread is based on this idea: scum look at their role PM, have some sort of deep emotional shift, and can never again play the game correctly, instead making posts with all sorts of strange emotional motivations deeply affected by their desire to "fit in" and "look town."

This is a silly idea! Ignoring what is in your role PM and posting your true thoughts anyway is not hard at all! Under the one scenario when there is a possibility of your scum partner getting lynched, THEN you have to go through contortions, because you are the only one with motivation not to vote him. Town players have no information about him, and are as happy to participate as anyone else. Of course, if town players frequently refuse to participate based on "reads," then scum can just say they have a "read," and we have lost any hope of

true

scum hunting.

For my part, at this day 1 juncture, I'm willing to participate in any bandwagon that gains steam. And all town players should be. If they aren't, we reach stagnation, which has sort of already happened, and as demonstrated in the previous paragraph we lose the most reliable source of information. Only when someone is near being lynched will we be able to make any sort of legitimate inferences about alignment.

[Pine]

Moar milkshake votes

[Pine]

(He meant to say milkshake and Misa)

[Pine]

One of SA and Misa is, and I think it's Misa. Setup is open, so you're not Masons.

[Pine]

Lil Uzi Vert, I agree with your assessment that there is not enough content right now to deduce anything substantial. BUT, the stance you have taken because of the lack of information is exactly what I advise against. You say you don't feel like voting anybody. Specifically you don't want to vote Sleepless Assassin, MisaTange, and Pine. Sleepless Assassin is the most relevant of these three because he has the most votes right now.

There is not enough content, yes. So, anyone has a 2 out of 9 chance to be scum. If you run the numbers, you will find a 2 out of 9 chance is good enough for the town at this point. If you feel apathetic, just join the bandwagon. Then the content will come.

What the fuck is this scumfuckery

Unvote

This looks a LOT like a scumbuddy trying to push a rudderless player onto the less damaging of two options.

I am still of the opinion that SA/MT is not Town vs Town, so that suggests a MT/Milkshake scumteam.

Game solved. You're welcome.

Vote MisaTange

Sleepless Assassin should agree with this vote. Bandwagons are good for making games come to life!

VOTE: Sleepless Assassin

Yeah, this supports it. Blatantly doesn't care about scumhunting, just wants to lynch someone.

In fact,

Unvote
Vote milkshake

I can come back to SA/MT, this is shiny and obvious.

That's the start of it.

[Pine]

Shrug. Like I said, it was just the beginning of the case, and what I could easily pull from my ISO on the fly. The stronger case is in the ongoing reaction to my suspicion.

[Pine]

Ok, I will join the Kop wagon.

VOTE: Kop

This will help things happen I think.

My heart wants Pine to be scum, because his play is based on such incorrect understanding of the game from my viewpoint, but I think that just because he disagrees with me doesn't make him scum. However he does seem to think I am scum, ha. I do think there's a chance he's scum, but anyway there's no votes on Pine. So it's a moot point.

Gah. This post right here. It's a scumpost.

How are you people not seeing this? A lurkerlynch over this crap?

[Pine]

Actually, the vote switch was fine. That post makes me question my reads, because it was Town as fuck.

Unvote

Need to reevaluate.

[Pine]

Looks like bluster. Haven't done my reread yet. Probably won't until this evening.

[Pine]

@Pine please vote for someone. Lil uzi hasn't voted for anyone. And am not sure we can get a replacement before the day ends.

I need to do a reread, and it's finals week. Give me some space. I should be clear in 24-48 hours.

[Pine]

or do a no lynch.

Do you enjoy being called scum?
Post like this are going to do it.

We are not no lynching.

This.

[Pine]

VOTE: Arnold

I haven't seen anything resembling productivity from this guy, and singleminded focus on a nearly-absent player without other scumhunting strikes me as suspicious.

[Pine]

No lynching is empirically bad for Town. Stop it. Go home to whatever idiot site you learned badlogic from.

[Pine]

Ugh no

[Pine]

Moar Arnold votes

[Pine]

Dayvig Vedith

[Pine]

ANARCHY IN THE MS.NET

[Pine]

VOTE: Misa

I've done my own review, and I maintain that the Misa/SA tangle was not TvT. SA flipped Town, so that's solved.

[Pine]

Well, that reply, for one. If you were Town, you'd just tell me I'm wrong

[Pine]

That...actually makes a lot of sense. I could see Kop scum.

VOTE: Kop

[Pine]

Didn't realize I was in prod range. I've had a busy couple of days (I had a minor house fire), but have been staying current. Sorry, I do this sometimes when I'm not especially invested and when people are being boring.

[Pine]

Lynch the lurkers?

Let's start with Kop

[Pine]

What the fuck is this replacement.

Kop/Kain vote stays. Being insane and incomprehensible is anti-Town regardless of how scummy your predecessor was.

[Pine]

Is this nonsense for real?

I am ignoring everything that comes out of Kain until he starts acting like a person.

Votes on him please.

[Pine]

I'm not ignoring you, I'm ignoring nonsense. Say something that isn't garbage, like the above, and I will treat you like an adult.

Like I said, incomprehensibility is anti-Town.

[Pine]

I haven't, actually, but your penchant for misrep makes me pretty happy with my vote.

[Pine]

Hard claim: I'm the Watcher. I watched SpadeAce N1, no one visited.

I demand Kain's lynch.

[Pine]

Yeah, scum are hoping someone hammers and obviates that.

[Pine]

Okay, this response to a wagon doesn't strike me as Town.

VOTE: Spade_Ace

Okay, final reads, as I'm likely to be killed tonight...

Town

Milkshake - I'm standing by the Towntell I saw earlier.
TB/Vedith/Alisae - I haven't played with Alisae enough to know, but both TB and Vedith seemed to be playing their Town game, as far as I can tell.

LUV/BTD6 - Lean Town? Kinda nullish.

MisaTange - I still don't think the SA/Misa argument was TvT, but if the team is {Kain/Spade} I could be wrong. If either flips Town, look here.
Kop/Kain - Seriously, this guy.

Scum

[Pine]

It's called phoneposting, you knob. And it was a stupid question asked incomprehensibly, and I'm still not positive what you were looking for.

[Pine]

You asked a confusing question that required me to go back and compare notes on what you'd quoted in context. Can't be done from 30 seconds on a phone.

Also, again, the question was poorly-worded to the point that I still don't really know what you're after, and I thought it was kind of stupid. Not all of us just masturbate into our hands and smear the product into the Quick Reply box and consider that a sufficiently cogent way to play the game.

[Pine]

you are saying such disguszting things,, kain TAPAS is OFFENDED,,

Kain Tepes offends me. The mixed metaphors in your username bespeak a childish impulse to be intimidating, as does your brash and insouciant attitude. You cannot, however, seem to focus this desire on either figure of lore, Vlad the Impaler or Cain, son of Adam, which you additionally either misspell or draw from even less inspired sources. The addition of a dancing Miltank for avatar further discredits the theme, not to mention your propensity for tantrum.

Now cease your scrawled and obstreperous drivel, or I shall become annoyed, and beat you up with more large words.