Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

[podoboq]

Official Vote Count 5.03

Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Dierfire (1): nn30

Not Voting (4): BlackVoid, Dierfire, implosion, Prism

V/LA: Prism

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-03 09:00:00)

[podoboq]

implosion has been prodded.

[podoboq]

BlackVoid has been prodded.

[implosion]

bloop bloop

still semi-vla but idk i honestly just have no clue if it isn't dier and i have a feeling he'll flip town so i guess you guys get to sort it out, get it wrong, and then i get to blame you.

If I had to take a guess if it's not dier it'd be prism. But i still feel terrible saying that. The reality is i'd have no idea.

[nn30]

Hey everybody, I'm finally caught up. Heads up that I'm really bad at reading things I wasn't here for due to sheer volume (more specifically, keeping up with connections between posts) so expect me to be more reactive/thorough to future occasions than I will be here looking into the past.

Rereading I really don't like LUV as much as I thought. I liked the reaction to the wagon, it was very daring, but the post afterwards, #246, reads more as trying to stir off future trouble before it happens. It's a post for volume than substance, more chin scratching than investigation. I realize he said it was a reread post but something that for the most part is a summary doesn't really help. I also really don't like his passing on me even after I posted.

Elaborating more on my boring scumread and Zoronos townread, boring's #196 more sold me on thinking Zoronos was town than anything else. Having an inconsistent mind isn't a hallmark of being scum-being deceptive is. Saying that "I think talking about yourself is a scumtell" then doing it anyway shows less concern for appearance. And what on earth is that reasoning on the implosion read? I agree with it but that's not it at all.

Implosion is on the downhill ever since the wagon on him derailed. I agree completely that PP reacted really well to the wagon, for now I'm taking everyone else's word about him not doing this as scum but I'm doing a more thorough review later. On the other hand his read on Shadow is complete yuck and considering the thought that goes into most things I'm finding it hard to believe that this is the read getting the stamp of approval. I really don't like the noncommittal read on Maria in #562 or the halfhearted opinion fishing on boring in #563. #565's opinion on Gamma looks to me like either distancing from the wagon before it flips or fishing for a future derailment more than a real reconsideration.

I don't really have too many thoughts on Gamma himself, I feel like I need a better understanding of his meta. My initial readthrough was leaning town but after reading nn30's posts and ISOing Gamma I've waffled on that. I don't trust Implosion as far as I can throw him.

VOTE: Implosion

@Mod: Just a note that I voted boring back in #488 and that Slandaar is still in the vote count

Implosion, you expressed that if it wasn't Dier you thought it'd be Prism. Therefore, I want to talk about Prism.

This is Prism's first substantive post of the game. He successfully finds scum reads on two of three people who are now confirmed scum.

Why is this?

Explanation 1: The wiki talks a lot about town sub ins having an eye for scum. Their birds eye view of the game gives them an ancanny ability to peg the people behaving... scummy...

Explanation 2: He's scum pointing the finger of suspicion at his buddies without explicitly voting them. This allows him room to hop on a bus wagon when this is convenient to him later on down the road.

Thoughts?

[nn30]

My thoughts on Shadow / BV:

Shadow's D1 play makes sense as town - this is a bad gambit.

Shadow's subsequent play makes sense as scum - he did a good job of throwing a wrench into our discussions with his rudeness.

That said, I don't think scum will sub out because they've frustrated the town/are frustrated with the town. I think Shadow's desire to sub out means that he was actually just town who was no longer being heard.

If someone is inclined to disagree, please say so.

[BlackVoid]

I'm still not sure which of nn30 or Dierfire it is. I guess I'll have to do this the hard way and re-read again. This is going to take a while.

[nn30]

Playing this PoE game leaves just Dierfire.

I laid out my case on him in a previous post 2697.

The crux of this was VCA. He is timid at most points in the game and totally unwilling to lead. I think this is scummy.

Of the 3 people here, I am still in favor of a Dierfire lynch. My PoE exercise here clenched it.

If you aren't, please let me know why.

We're burning daylight and we're not using any of that time to have any meaningful discussions.

Unless someone (other than Dier - sorry m8) has a reason not to lynch Dierfire, please say so now. Otherwise we should just string him up and get it over with.

[nn30]

@BV - I'm fairly certain you're town at this point and fairly certain Dier is the last remaining scum.

If you choose wrong on the first lynch, you can always just lynch the other one next.

[Dierfire]

Shadow's D1 play makes sense as town - this is a bad gambit.

I want to note that this was, empirically, a good gambit for a Mafia player to make. If Shadow_step was Mafia, then the gambit was greatly successful at little cost (we're still talking about it as one of the primary reasons to read Shadow_step as Town after multiple days of play and two Mafia flips).
I'll agree that it did and does seem unlikely as a gambit (because these sorts of things don't often occur to Mafia players when less effortful measures are available), but the move was demonstrably a good one for a Mafia player to make.

[nn30]

Shadow's D1 play makes sense as town - this is a bad gambit.

I want to note that this was, empirically, a good gambit for a Mafia player to make. If Shadow_step was Mafia, then the gambit was greatly successful at little cost (we're still talking about it as one of the primary reasons to read Shadow_step as Town after multiple days of play and two Mafia flips).
I'll agree that it did and does seem unlikely as a gambit (because these sorts of things don't often occur to Mafia players when less effortful measures are available), but the move was demonstrably a good one for a Mafia player to make.

Sure. There are other reasons to read BV as town though.

If this were true a mafia player would be the first to point out why it was a bad gambit to make as scum.

Grendel was the one to point it out as a bad gambit if I'm not mistaken. Eager implicitly knows this as well by way of his assuming the two of them are town for the entirety of the discussion.

Additionally, Boring's behavior after Shadow CC'd was a very quick reaction. I find it unlikely that Shadow_Step and Boring planned this together and that Boring reacted so quickly to Shadow's CC.

To me it reads more like Boring seeing an opportunity and hopping on it in order to secure a mis-lynch.

[Dierfire]

If this were true a mafia player would be the first to point out why it was a bad gambit to make as scum.

What does this mean?

Additionally, Boring's behavior after Shadow CC'd was a very quick reaction. I find it unlikely that Shadow_Step and Boring planned this together and that Boring reacted so quickly to Shadow's CC.

To me it reads more like Boring seeing an opportunity and hopping on it in order to secure a mis-lynch.

This is fair. I'll think about it more.

[implosion]

nn i think i've made my thoughts clear... prism doesn't make sense as scum, neither do you, neither does bv. If I call prism scum out of the three it is by a sliver because I really do have no idea.

[nn30]

If this were true a mafia player would be the first to point out why it was a bad gambit to make as scum.

What does this mean?

This means that:

1) Mafia planned the gambit
2) If mafia planned the gambit, they would have also discussed the 'success scenario' of the gambit. In this case it appears to be that 'succes' would be town interpreting the gambit as such a bad gambit to run as scum (trading 1-for-1) that Shadow_Step must be town.
3) If this is true, a mafia player would have been the first to suggest such a thing (since they would have been antsy about the success of the gambit).

[nn30]

nn i think i've made my thoughts clear... prism doesn't make sense as scum, neither do you, neither does bv. If I call prism scum out of the three it is by a sliver because I really do have no idea.

Fair enough.

I'm just playing devils' advocate here.

I'm obviously voting for Dier right now (and not Prism) That is very intentional.

Since nobody seems to want to lynch Dier, I'm trying to start a discussion. If we can rigorously prove Dier is scum via PoE (which you seem to have already done) then we can move forward with this lynch.

To do that I needed to present some sort of scum case on Prism to start that discussion.

[Dierfire]

@nn30
I think that you are saying that the Mafia players would have been likely to (claim to) strongly read Shadow_step as Town for the gambit, in order to support the gambit and influence Town players to do the same.

Would you then say that boring did this?

I looked again at the reactions that boring and Lil Uzi Vert had to the claim, and they are sort of opposite reactions (Lil Uzi Vert stalls for a long time, then votes for Shadow_step; boring immediately reverses her read on eagerSnake and votes for him).

[nn30]

I looked again at the reactions that boring and Lil Uzi Vert had to the claim, and they are sort of opposite reactions (Lil Uzi Vert stalls for a long time, then votes for Shadow_step; boring immediately reverses her read on eagerSnake and votes for him).

It's possible.

We have 2 lynches left.

I'll make you a deal Dierfire.

We lynch you today. Before we lynch you, name the person you have pegged as your top scum. Tomorrow, if I'm still alive, I'll take your word from the grave as the gospel and push for them all day long. You can even name me as your target and I would honor this agreement.

[nn30]

This is of course under the assumption that you're town.

[implosion]

why must the good die young... and why must people FREAKING IMMEDIATELY jump to the conclusion of "lol it's wifom".

Alas.

Essentially if dier flips town, then here's why I'm convinced on everyone as concisely as possible.

BV: the biggest point is shadow's claim. The way he "crumbed" in 121 and 122 just looks too damn genuine. That was really well crafted if he's scum, it just doesn't look like a premeditated fakeclaim. I could believe that he was a mafia ascetic but I think if scum have an ascetic, then the setup is hilariously scumsided, so I'm discounting that possibility.

Prism: if they're scum they'd have had to do a HELL of a lot of bussing. Pushed LUV and boring. nn makes a good point with his opening. He has also just felt forthcoming and has the feel of genuinely trying to solve the game.

nn: 1, the jail; my (moderate-to-strong) inclination is that nn would have done the kill out of nn and boring. If this is the case, then blah blah blah see prior setup spec. But 2, nn also has felt forthcoming in a similar way and it feels like they have put way too much out there, actively challenging things as they arise, to be scum. He also has some amount of bus-cred particularly from his "opportunistic" vote on boring d1 that put her at l-2, which *could* have been a bus.

I guess I'd be inclined towards just not-blackvoid as scum primarily. I sort of waver back and forth between the other two. I think looking at these reasonings again the nn one sort of feels weakest, if we're willing to lynch dier who was supposedly jailkept... but I'm sort of mostly willing to lynch dier because of a combination of not being totally sure zoro jailkept him and just feeling lost without a scumflip from him.

[Dierfire]

@nn30

I'll make you a deal Dierfire.

We lynch you today. Before we lynch you, name the person you have pegged as your top scum. Tomorrow, if I'm still alive, I'll take your word from the grave as the gospel and push for them all day long. You can even name me as your target and I would honor this agreement.

Ha ha, no, that's not the deal! The deal is that I give you a name, but if you follow me and I'm wrong then I blame you anyway!

In seriousness, this was already mostly how I expected today to go (except that I wasn't expecting anyone to commit to honoring my read after my flip).

[nn30]

@Dier - you can blame me if you want in end game

Do we have a deal?

[Dierfire]

Yes, that's acceptable to me (I didn't really expect anything better anyway).

[nn30]

Yes, that's acceptable to me (I didn't really expect anything better anyway).

All right so either you're scum attempting to WIFOM us into not killing you today

OR

You're town.

I must implore town to ignore any WIFOM thoughts which may lead them to town read Dier. Accepting this deal is the only choice he has as scum. Doing otherwise would indicate that he is scum (since he must survive today in order to win the game).

Who is your top scum, Mr. town!Dier?

[Dierfire]

I've not finished reading the entire game again, but my current thought is that [BlackVoid is] most likely to be Mafia--there is my accusation.

[nn30]

Deal.