Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Jaack]

Hello people.

VOTE: BlackVoid

Post 16 seems to take for granted that Hoopla is town. Seems like a good enough start.

[Jaack]

Hey look stuff is happening

Regarding the rask wagon, I think that the initial reason BlackVoid gave for voting rask is pretty solid. That being said, rask's reaction to the wagon seems towny enough that I'm not enthralled with rask as scum. Either way, there is probably scum somewhere on the rask wagon, so I'm more concerned there for now.

Brief timeline:
56: BlackVoid gives reason, votes rask
57: Hoopla endorses rask vote but does not change her vote
58: BBT vote rask in hopes of starting a wagon
59: Sotty joins wagon. Follows it up with 60 which is substantitive, but does not discuss rask
62: Hoopla officially votes rask
63: TwoFace votes rask without reason other than it existing and the coin flip gimmick

I'm generally townreading hoopla right now for her approach to this wagon as well as her early game play (the dice tag discussion seems needlessly risky for scum). I also do like BlackVoid's reasons for the wagon, even if my intial vote was there. If there is scum on the wagon its probably within {BBT, Sotty, TwoFace}

Of those three I think Sotty is most likely. She had an empty vote, but at the same time added a few weak reads right afterword. Seems like someone who knew their vote was not good, so they decided to put down some content so as to not get blamed for fluff. 86 also shows more self awareness about the quality of her posts.

As for the other two, there's not enough from BBT to make note of pretty much anything, since his only post is the rask vote. I do have a slight scumread on TwoFace though, although it might just be the coin gimmick getting on my nerves. Scumread on Sotty is stronger.

VOTE: Sotty

PEdit-Okay BBT has three posts now. Still not a lot to go on, but he's still probably the most townie of the trio.

[Jaack]

Jack why do you think talking about dice is risky for scum btw I don't get it

Using dice tags in rvs is the kind of thing that tends to get people on your case, essentially for the reasons michel gave when he voted hoopla. It's sort of like self voting in rvs in that it's liable to get people talking about you early.

I don't think it's a pro-town play, but it rather on the nose for scum.

[Jaack]

I go away for a bit and everyone posts everything. Let's ketchup

If there is scum on the wagon

I like that you start by saying "IF" and then somewhere between there and the end of the post it magically changes to "IS" with no real explanation.

And by "I like" I mean "I don't like." Also VCA is dumb ok

Just looking for a place to start. While you may disagree with my methods of getting there, I do think my logic for scumreading sotty is solid, which is, you know, why I posted it.

I think that's all that was directly addressed to me, but for some general thoughts--

It seems strange to me that there has been as much discussion about BBT with his lack of content, particularly when he is not alone in said lack of content. (particularly I Am Innocent, but also sort of myself and Michel)

Still comfortable with townreading Hoopla and Rask. BlackVoid seems relatively townie as well.

I kinda have no clue whats going on with Victor and GM, although Victor's last few rage-y posts do feel a little fake to me.

I was inclined to townread Cloud for his early trolly play, but the self-awareness and apology-ness of 272 give me pause.

All in all I'm still rather comfortable with my vote on Sotty for now.

[Jaack]

And there's nothing wrong with that. There's still a gap in logic there though. When/why does if -> is?

It doesn't. It's very possible that there were no scum on that wagon, although I think that it's more likely that there were. I just didn't see the need to fluff everything up with conditionals, particularly when my though process arrived at what I think is likely scum.

[Jaack]

Hey Jaack, what do you think of twoface?

He is scummy enough that I should note it, but I don't feel particularly strongly about much. Sometimes when I read his posts I feel something looks scummy, but I also feel it could be general abrasiveness, 212 being a decent example.

Jack was one of the 2 people I had a sr on and he hasn't done much to change it I think the fact he tried to look for scum on a RVS wagon pinged me the wrong way mostly because there was nothing to go off on it because it was a RVS wagon
Plus the disagreement we had so!

Okay, but what about any of this is scummy?

[Jaack]

Okay, catching up a bit...

Rask and Hoopla are still my top two townreads. Unlike everyone else it seems, I feel like BBT is town as well...

My townread on BlackVoid has faded a bit. A lot of the posts I read from him are good and towny, but a couple of times I felt as if he was parroting what someone else had just said (323 and 456 are the two that caught my eye).

My gut feeling is that Maria is town. I generally feel that scum aren't going to blatantly avoid questions like she did with BBT. She avoided the question I asked as well (398 so you can answer it without begging me to quote it).

Ehh, I'll just give a full ordered list from town to scum

Town:
Rask
Hoopla
Maria
BBT
Michel
BlackVoid
GoodMorning
I Am Innocent I guess
Victor
Cloud
TwoFace
Sotty
:Scum

I think cloud is going a bit under the radar as of late. A lot of people seem to be willing to write off his actions as playstyle, but reading through this iso, it seems like he's been trying way to hard to assert himself as an important part of the town while simultaneously acting trolly. I'm not really sure here, but I'm feeling he's scummier than people have been treating him as of late.

[Jaack]

I think you tried to make a sr on something where I don't think anything was NAI let's see what scum want to do
1) Get towncred
2) Push a wagon
you did both congrats scum points for you

There are plenty of other people who got reads based on stuff from the early going of the thread. What makes my early read scummy? Also pushing a wagon isn't scummy, it's literally the only way to win as town.

Wth is with the two face sr?

It's not a super strong scumread, but I feel a lot of his posts have not been very good in terms of advancing the game or anything, which is not good for a player with as girthy of an iso.

@Jaack, how was I "parroting" what someone else said in my 323? I don't recall anyone making those points about GM. If they have, go ahead and quote them for me.

I agree that 456 was me agreeing with Rask about Sotty and BBT being scum, potentially together. But if agreeing with someone else is scummy to you, how didn't it affect your read on Hoopla when she said she noticed the same thing I did? Also, I had suspicions of both BBT and Sotty7 much before Rask brought up his theory so I'm not understanding how you interpreted that as parroting Rask.

Why is BBT town?

In the first case I felt you were parroting GM's thoughts on me a little bit, but that might just be because I'm more aware of people talking about me lol. As for the sotty/bbt theory thing, I felt it was kind of strange that you would bring up your own conspiracy theory in response to Rask's.

Really, parroting isn't the right word for what you did now that I'm englishing harder. It's more like you were kind of subtlely pushing along trains of thought I didn't feel were in town's best interest, particularly with the one in 456. I don't see what furthering that kind of paranoia does to help town. That being said, your still in my townreads for the time being for your general body of work.

I feel like BBT-Maria is a town-town thing. I also feel like scum wouldn't spend the vast majority of their time tunnelling when their are under pressure.

[Jaack]

I am here... and suddenly quite popular it seems.

Regarding Jaack, yeah I felt he was a bit too comfortable with voteparking your wagon based off of the "IF there's one scum on the Rask wagon, it's Sotty7" theory which isn't even necessarily true and he hasn't re-assessed or commented on your posts since then.

I've said this already, but my vote on sotty is not based on the rask wagon thing. It's based off of sotty's actions in the early game. As I explained already. I haven't commented on sotty since because nothing has really popped out at me from her posts. I mean I didn't really like her first vote on BBT all that much (119} but I haven't felt to strongly about the vast majority of her posts since the early game.

The only other players I have reasonable scum-inklings about are twoface and cloudkicker, and neither of those two players have much momentum towards a wagon, so I don't know why I would move my vote to a less useful place.

Now regarding myself, I think it's notable that there has been a lot of interest in me as a scum candidate in the past couple of pages, but no one is willing to cast the first vote. Of course now that I say that someone will probably cheekily quote this section and vote me.

[Jaack]

So you have nothing at all to ask me about anything in the game?

Nothing has popped out at me as I've followed the thread, but I'll review your iso to see if my mind on you changes and/or I find something interesting.

So you don't want to move your own vote because you don't think it would be useful off of either of the major wagons.
But you also question people won't move their votes off of a major wagon onto you.
Somewhat contradictory isn't it?

Not really at all contradictory. I don't want to move my vote because other options I kind of like (Cloud, TwoFace, maybe you) don't appear to have much in traction at the moment.

As for me, there was a groundswell of interest in a wagon on me in the couple of pages immediately prior. A single vote and a hard push could have easily produced a wagon. It didn't, or at least hasn't happened yet.

[Jaack]

Do you have any plans to change that?

As of right now I'm happy with my sotty vote. She's my strongest scumread and has an active wagon on her. I'm going to focus my interests there for the time being.

Are you not concerned about Maria's vote on you?

A bit, at least in the sense that my townread on Maria might be wrong.

I've already addressed her concerns about me and she offered any other reasons to be scumreading me since this 524, where she basically admits that her reasons for scumreading me were less than adequate.

Now since then, others have offered reasons to scumread me (mainly my lack of major postings and my 'voteparking' on sotty) which she hasn't commented on, even just an 'I agree' type of thing.

[Jaack]

Okay let me spam the thread even more with an I agree to every single thing said on you.
No in all srs your townread weakens if someone votes you? That's new at least to me talk to me on that
You haven't really done much and everything you have done would be me just parroting about your going UTR and just coasting I have no new comment to add besides the light shade you just threw[/quote]

Well help me clear things up so I can get your train of thought right.

1. In 524, you conceded all your points on me.
2. You unvoted BBT in 551.
3. BlackVoid posted his reasons for scumreading me in 567. As far as I can tell, this is what started the interest in me as a scum choice (Hoopla and GreyIce would soon follow in assert interest in me as scum).
In 572 you expressed a continued interest in me as a scum candidate, but weren't interested in voting me because there was no traction on the wagon.
4. This is where Hoopla and GreyIce, and maybe someone else I don't remember sort of fall in line on the whole "Jaack is under the radar and lurking" deal. GreyIce actually addresses me about things.
5. I address these concerns in 611 and essentially challenge someone to vote me if they are scumreading me.
6. You post 618 without addressing me.
7. You nakedly vote me in 622.
8. You justify it in 642, repeating the idea that I was just coasting.

That section is mostly for my own reference right now, but if there is anything that is incorrect, feel free to correct it.

My first actual question is this: Were you scumreading me between 524 and 567?

[Jaack]

I am aware you had an early scumread on me, I was wondering if you continued to scumread me after 524, when you seemingly gave up on that train as I had addressed your concerns.

[Jaack]

My sr on you lessened by a considerable amount I still need to do SOMETHING though and you're the biggest person I sr besides victor I'm at a lack of sr's so just going with what I got.

Fair enough.

Moving forward, you express your scumread in me in 572. I didn't post anything since you say your scumread on me lessened. In this time frame (524 through 572) BlackVoid and Sotty kind of agreed that I could be scum due to my voteparking and general lurkiness.

Did you agree with this sentiment?

[Jaack]

I don't agree with the vote parking that's just a bit overkill and I don't really sr that the lurking kinda if you count lurking and coasting as the same thing.

Okay, moving along.

Why did you neither vote me or attempt to engage me in 572. You say in the post that you don't see my lynch happening, but this was immediately following sotty and BlackVoid discussing me in 566 and 567, so I'm not fully buying that explination.

[Jaack]

Because everyone can say this sr ___ but looking at the wagons that were happening (scoty and BBT) I doubted that people would go for you because the 2 main wagons already seemed established already

Okay but why didn't you try to engage me?

[Jaack]

uhh does this mean vote you or talk to you (I'ma assume talk)
I normally only talk to people first when I have a question or if I wanna goof I'm not really one to engage people much it's something I need to work on

Okay, whatever...

Last question for now - What changed that made you vote me when you did?

[Jaack]

Okay lets get to the sotty stuff, and then we'll address more recent concerns.

Rask - Thanks for the meta input.

I think it might be better for us to continue this once BBT comes back and starts posting more. I'll put a pin in it for now.

Twoface being like antisocial and giving a "fuck you" vibe doesn't get any points but it's hard to judge it from style from an alt without meta available. Him not voting anyone despite seeming to have problems with people is kind of weird to me. Would think he'd vote victor or maybe cloud at this point given the things he said.

I didn't even notice he wasn't voting anymore. Town read downgraded.

I really don't care about the coin flip thing, I'm not taking it to mean he is letting the coin decide his vote expect maybe in the initial stages of the game. It's a quirk I'm fine with. The lack of a voting is more damaging than anything else, you should always be trying to work your vote as it's your strongest tool. Not only that but it provides info about were you stand at any given time, not to mention potential VCA's. It's day one Twoface, what are you waiting for, vote your top scum read and lets get going.

Was about to vote victor actually but his response makes me think town, and goodmorning's push on him has been weird.

Why were you about to vote victor? Cutting through GM's style I fnd myself agreeing with things she has posted (hoopla stuff, BBT stuff, maybe not so much Victor stuff)

Why don't you come and join me on BBT instead?

I know you kinda want to.

I'm not really interested in a Victor vote. His stuff on Twoface is mostly good and I haven't hated his responses to GM. If he addresses Hoopla's questions, that would be even better.

(Bolded added for emphasis)
This feels contradictory. Her case on BBT was a good part meta, but after Rask sort of argues against that (209), sotty wants to simultaneously drop discussion of BBT's meta while also getting Rask to vote?

Sotty eventually switches her vote over to TwoFace (311) until BBT comes back and its right back to that wagon(466).

But in that interim, she does very little to push on that TwoFace vote. In fact she even pushes him to vote BBT in 334. The push on TwoFace looks kind of like a placeholder until BBT returns, because sotty is aware that camping on a non-entity doesn't look good.

Overall, I just feel there's a strange fixation early on that seems unnatural. But now that the BBT/GreyIce wagon has come to pass, sotty seems to be no longer concerned with too much with pushing it.

Other than that ordeal and the stuff from the early game that I've already covered, most of sotty's posts are in the meh range. It's enough where I continue to be comfortable with my vote.

----
Moving right along, I want to wrap-up my little dialogue with Maria earlier.

I had downgraded my read of her as I had said in 641.

I felt there was a easy to see scum-narritive there. She made a weak initial push on me, one of the inactives. After I kind of shut that down and she failed to get any traction she moved away, but after interest in me organically sprung up she was back to voting me. It felt more like she was scum who had me as one of her own designated scumreads than town actually convinced I was scum.

But with Maria kind of pushing back on most of the others' reasons for scumreading me (656) I do feel better about her.

[Jaack]

Can you post a list of your reads from town --> scum? Maybe even with scores if you're feeling friendly?

Just from the catchup, for instance ur unvote/contradiction from an earlier stance where you don't like to wait until deadline to get claims would have been a negative point:

Town: Cloud, Hoopla, BlackVoid, Victor, Sotty
Null/Town Lean: Rask, TwoFace, Michel, Maria
Null Scum: GoodMorning
Scum: GreyIce, Jaack

3 of the town reads dropped strong town tells (including yourself), both scum read dropped a early game scum tells in addition to poor posts. Good Morning to did not have one positive post either. BBT was the only of my scum reads to have a good post, and it was for his early vote on the Rask wagon since I saw something there early on. Of course Rask has since been more townie, so that one post doesn't offset the number of bad posts/scum tell that slot dropped.

I'm sorry, but how at all is this a useful reads list? And then bragging about it in 780? You literally have no justification for anything. The only two actual references to something that's happened are something scummy you thought hoopla did (while you are townreading that slot) and something towny you though BBT did (you are scumreading that slot).

Now you can say you have this magical list and you aren't going to share it because "they'll stop dropping those scumtells" but that makes your accusations 100% useless. Especially considering you go against that in the quoted post - you do give an example of something scummy that Hoopla did. So give evidence or stop parading around as some town paragon. Even if GI and I are scum (which I'm not, and I don't think GI is either) and we would purposely stop dropping these scumtells, it doesn't mean they don't already exist in thread as evidence.

This feels contradictory. Her case on BBT was a good part meta, but after Rask sort of argues against that (209), sotty wants to simultaneously drop discussion of BBT's meta while also getting Rask to vote?

I asked Rask's opionon of my BBT meta which was from awhile back. She said I was wrong I said okay, let me wait for BBT to post more and we can take it from there. Nothing contradictory.

The contradiction is that you push rask to vote BBT immediately after saying you'll wait and allow BBT to post more.

But in that interim, she does very little to push on that TwoFace vote.

Okay that's just blatantly untrue. I push Twoface hard and we have an extensive back and forth that could have easily became a death tunnel. I am interacting and questioning twoface who starts off answering me and then just really falls back to insulting and taking pot shots at me. I pushed his voting behavior, I asked him for several reads a couple of pages back that he still hasn't provided. What would you consider "pushing a scum read"? Vote them then disappear for several pages and never interacting or questioning them again like you have been doing with me?

Upon further examination, I will concede this. I didn't originally feel as if your discussions with TwoFace were particularly productive and it felt more like you were biding your time until BBT came back and you could focus on him again. On a second read, I don't think you're pushes on TwoFace are as intense as your pushes on BBT, which does give me pause, but it's the smoking gun I considered it before.

As for the shade on me, I get it. I screwed up by being lazy and not participating for a good section of this game. If I get lynched for it that's on me. But that fact that you keep bringing up every time I try and do something now is counterproductive. Well, at least it's detrimental to me trying to contribute. Just because I had a bad start to the game doesn't mean I can't have something to say now.

[Jaack]

I will try and make this as clear as I can

Rask - Thanks for the meta input. I think it might be better for us to continue this once BBT comes back and starts posting more. I'll put a pin in it for now.

Why don't you come and join me on BBT instead?

I find there two aspects of 271 to be contradictory.

[Jaack]

My townread on Hoopla has definitely declined a bit with how she's tried to force town towards me or GI. That being said, I kind of liked her stuff regarding IAI so she more in nullish territory.

I still prefer sotty as a lynch, but I could definitely go for an IAI lynch as well.

PEdit: Victor wouldn't be my first choice, but I might be able to be convinced. Could someone outline a brief case there?

[Jaack]

I don't hate anyone! ;-;

I h8 u

Blatant contradiction, confscum

[Jaack]

With that said, it looks like BBT is play for today. Hopefully we can L-1 a wagon and get a claim to assess before getting too close to the deadline.

I agree with this. My biggest pet peeve in mafia is the amount of D1's that wait until the last 48 hours to compromise, leaving little time to analyse a claim, and often reducing the town to chaotic scrambling if that wagon dissipates.

Totally agree with this.

Alright, as much as I want to tear 588 apart, GM can wait.

[This is Jaack editing out the vote on BBT because I get anal about quoting votes and normally just cut them out but it's kind of important to the context of the blind quote]

I was reviewing various iso's and I ran across this victor post I don't like. While I understand not wanting to allow the day to dwindle down to deadline, this looks like an excuse not to deal with GM's post 588. It's not as if victor has gone all in on trying to lynch BBT/GI... he's been fine with touching on a wide variety of subjects.

I'm not overly enamored with the cases I've read regarding victor, but he's more likely to be scum than GI, and it doesn't look like sotty and IAI are going to be options at this point.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: VictorDeAngelo

[Jaack]

Oh, that's L-2 on Victor.

[Jaack]

With TwoFace now being confirmed as town, I think it's worth bringing up sotty-scum again. Yeah, the wagon stalled yesterday, but looking back at that, it's odd that there were two townies (myself and TwoFace) hanging out on that wagon for a good portion of the day, but the wagon failed to gain much traction past that. Neither TwoFace or I were ever really universally townread, so, if sotty were town, it would be a strong opportunity for scum to push that wagon and then let the blame fall on TwoFace, or, more likely, me.

VOTE: Sotty7

At the same time, I could definitely go for an IAI wagon as well.

PEdit: Well what do you know, someone else would like a sotty wagon.

[Jaack]

The fact you think that no one fancies a wagon on me is ridiculous. Nearly everyone in the game has positioned themselves to vote for me at some point today. I fully expect to be one of the major centers of attention, especially now with that kill.

What are your reasons for wanting a IAI wagon?

I'm not talking about the difficulty of starting a wagon on you now, but yesterday. While a lot of people may have suspected you, only TwoFace and I actually stuck with a vote on you for very long.

As for IAI, his D1 entrance was awful, with suspicions on two townies (GI and myself) who also just happened to have been the favorite wagons at the time. Oh and remember how everyone was starting to doubt their Hoopla townreads at the end of D1? Look at IAI's first scumread of the day (1133).

[Jaack]

Your IAI points are solid.

What do you think of just how long it took to actually lynch Grey yesterday?

My inclination is that the wagon was stalled because there simply wasn't enough town support for it to end the day, but the town off the wagon was too fractured to come up a viable alternative. I mean, the best we could do was victor, and I'll admit I was never all that gung ho about a victor wagon, just that he was a far better choice than GreyIce.

Of course, I'm not all that thrilled with this conclusion. Why do you think it took so long?

----
Since he seems to be a popular point of discusion, I'll chime in on Rask.

The two primary concerns people seem to have with rask are that he disappeared when he was getting universally townread and that he was waffling around at the end of the day. The first reason I totally get, but the second reason seems a bit off to me. If we believe victor's claim then there's no reason for scumrask to waffle between them to the extent that he did - the day would end in a mislynch either way. And in general, his waffling at the end of the day feels more town to me than not, but the above reason is the only concrete one I really have.

[Jaack]

Goodmorning is town guys.

@Creature: Tell me about CloudKicker. Why is he town?

[Jaack]

Well... uh okay. When can I expect an answer?

[Jaack]

This has been so useful a conversation...

@CloudKicker - Tell me about creature.

[Jaack]

Cloud and creature are in my "could be scum but I'm kind of meh" category. Creature's townread in cloud seemed like a good place to start working out that junk, but him refusing to give me a solid answer kind of put a pin in that.

[Jaack]

@Jaack

- Tell me why your townreading Goodmorning?

In general, I haven't gotten the sense that she's trying to make any friends/doesn't seem to care what people think.

More specifically, I don't think that scum would so strongly doubt your claim, at least at this point. It's the type of thing that draws unnecessary attention.

[Jaack]

Yeah but at the same time doubting the claim is easier for gm than coming up with new reads, and she can maintain everything from yesterday without change. And mason claim makes it an easy scumread because you're not expected to do that much about it. I agree it brings attention though I already voted her at that point.

How she does it too "(which is totally not Scum's favourite FC or anything, nope)." is kind of absurd also, and how gm super scumreads victor. Apparently all of it still on the entrance and the semantics argument he had. I don't buy you scumread someone early that much you stop reading them and are still ultra confident, then see mason claim and are still 100%, and go as far as implying mason claim is even likely or common for scum to continue (how does she even get to that conclusion?).

This is a fair enough assessment, but I don't agree with your conclusion that gm is scum. Overall your case feels more like "gm has done some things that could have been done with scum motivation" as opposed to "gm has done actively scummy things." In this particular case, I think its far more likely that gm is stubborn town as opposed to lazy scum.

[Jaack]

This is a fair enough assessment, but I don't agree with your conclusion that gm is scum. Overall your case feels more like "gm has done some things that could have been done with scum motivation" as opposed to "gm has done actively scummy things." In this particular case, I think its far more likely that gm is stubborn town as opposed to lazy scum.

Things which have more scum motivation to them than town motivation = scummy things.

Let me rephrase

I think a lot of your case on gm boils down to you looking for scum motivations behind everything gm has done, regardless of how likely those explinations are. You offer a possible reason that scum-gm could continue her scumread on victor, but it's far more likely, at least from my perspective that she is stubborn town rather than scum trying to find a tunnel that will allow her to not do anything.

While the scum-explination is possible, I think that overall, most of gm's play this game looks to come from town. She's not town to the point that I would be shocked by a scum flip, but I think town is more likely.

[Jaack]

UNVOTE:

Cloud, explain to me why you are scumreading sotty. You're two posts discussing her today show an extreme ambivalence.

[Jaack]

He gave intent to hammer her. With 9 days left until deadline, I doubt he has any other reason to do that unless he's scum reading her.

[Jaack]

I can confirm that sotty is telling the truth as far as me going nowhere N1.

I also don't really like how cloud reacted to me asking him to explain his sotty read.

I don't have time right now to go fully into everything regarding cloud, bu the following post gives me scumfeels:

@jaack i wanted a claim and i havent read the day or what post you are reffering to. I havent even actually read sotty for a while but she constantly put shade on me for not actual reason, this is exactly what mafia whos being wagoned would do : they cant include strong town/active players too much on their scumpool so they have to includes thoses who are less active and null from a town pov, she literraly never outed a singel reason why am i mafia but poe and says im scummy -> this is a scumplay imo

Now, i wasnt actually going to hammer but i wanted a claim

On the one hand, cloud gives his reasons for scumreading sotty. At the same time he tries to excuse his scumread by saying he hasn't read sotty recently and didn't actually want to hammer.

Moving along, I really didn't like this:

Also depending on the flip, i dont think that the way it goes i am a good nk target, this means that eventually ill survive to a lylo situation if we keep mling ppl and ill have to be more active, when this will happen i will step up my game.

And btw sotty, i still want your claim and if you even dare to make a bad post or excuse yourself about not claiming in your few next posts, i will iso you and fuck you up if i end up sring you.

First of all, this sounds way too much like cloud knows that this is a mislynch. So far we've had one mislynch, but if sotty is scum, like cloud seems to think, there's no real reason to make this kind of statement. This also looks like excusing himself for not getting nkilled, which isn't something town should be thinking about, especially at this point in the game.

And the second half of this post makes it look like he's not currently scumreading sotty at all and just wants a claim. I don't know why town-cloud would be so desperate for sotty to claim if he wasn't actually interested in lynching her, as he said previously.

Overall, I just see a lot of stuff from cloud that doesn't make sense from a town mindset. While I still think there's a chance that sotty is scum, I'm more comfortable with a cloud vote at this time.

VOTE: CloudKicker

[Jaack]

LOL this is how you can misunderstand everything and jump to conclusions in a nutshell. Jaack you have been wrong on me the whole game, i didnt actively read sotty content but she still kept throwing shade to me, like i evocated several times in my recent posts and you still somehow ignore all of this and 180% on your whole game scumread. You also didnt even left the vote on her for a claim nor did you comment on her claim but that you didnt visit. Depending on the flip means that i would probably be a good nk target if it flips scum and not if it flips town.

Heres how inconsistent you are :

-Jaack foses me all game for light reason, never go into details, he hardfos sotty and pushes on her
-I am showing intent on hammering sotty, asking a claim
-Jack unvote and ask me why i showed intent/scumread her
-I show why i felt like sotty is having a scumplay atm and how her reads on me makes 0 sens
-Jack then doesnt think about sotty being mafia from his firsts reads, he should actually tr me for being his top sr's sr, she even included us both in multiple scumpool
-He litterraly flip onto me 180d just because of a few posts, going back to all his reads and doesnt comment on sotty's claim more than that.

I asked sotty to claim, your scum read, and you fos me for it

Well, if its all a misunderstanding then you should be able to answer my questions.

First, why did you want sotty to claim if you didn't want to lynch her?

[Jaack]

On Sotty7's claim - I don't buy her night actions. It seems too much of a co-incidence to me that one of Sotty7's biggest antagonist was nightkilled and the other was tracked by her.

It seems more likely she's scum, figured out that TwoFace and Jaack were her biggest threats during the night, killed one, and rolecopped/tracked the other.

With this as an assumption, you would also essentially have to assume that victor was scum as well. Neither TwoFace nor I would have been very likely mason partners for victor (I was voting him at the end of the day and TwoFace had a pretty nasty back-and-forth with victor). If sotty was a role cop, that would mean scum had two assets to find a mason and used neither of them for that purpose. I find that hard to believe.

I guess sotty could be a scum tracker with victor as a mason, but I definitely can't see sotty as a scum role cop with victor as a mason.

I'm still concerned with cloud. It seemed like for most of the game whenever someone gave the slightest whiff that they thought he could be scum, he would immediately start scumreading them back, but 1447 seemed like a big shift away from that. My mental narrative is that I actually hit something that scumcloud knows is legitimately scummy and could stick and he shifted to damage control, but I'm struggling with where to go further with this.

As for the Hoopla wagon and related breakdown of the sotty wagon, I'm actually feeling more confident in sotty being scum at this point then I was when I unvoted (where I was starting to doubt myself due to cloud's activities). D1, the BBT/GI wagon stalled and people unvoted on occasion, but it never collapsed at any point. The sotty wagon, meanwhile, collapsed as soon as I unvoted and started looking elsewhere. I think that points to some scum bussing but looking for an easy out. There's a lot of 'not totally buying that claim but whatever' going around as well which I think feeds into that theory as well. As for hoopla herself

I think lynching sotty is probably our best option at this point. There's been too much doubtcasting on sotty's claim to make it a neccessary target for scum N2 if she is town. Double that if we don't lynch scum today.

VOTE: Sotty7

[Jaack]

I am here, sorry been swamped.

Will catch up in the morning

[Jaack]

Actually, I'd rather post than sleep right now

As for the Hoopla wagon and related breakdown of the sotty wagon, I'm actually feeling more confident in sotty being scum at this point then I was when I unvoted (where I was starting to doubt myself due to cloud's activities). D1, the BBT/GI wagon stalled and people unvoted on occasion, but it never collapsed at any point. The sotty wagon, meanwhile, collapsed as soon as I unvoted and started looking elsewhere. I think that points to some scum bussing but looking for an easy out. There's a lot of 'not totally buying that claim but whatever' going around as well which I think feeds into that theory as well. As for hoopla herself

People unvoted because of the claim from what I can tell. Not because you unvoted and looked elsewhere. Can you explain to me why you're debating if I could be a scum role cop or not, or why that makes any sense to do at this point? The two paragraghps at the start of this post make no sense to me. The whole post is disjointed. You could have just came out and said "I don't believe the claim" and revoted. It would have made more sense.

I'll try and clarify a bit since people seem to be having trouble.

I unvoted you in 1403 afte Cloud gave intent. He later stated that he was trying to get a claim although he did not vote you to put you back at L-1. That's where I felt the wagon sort of stalled, although now that I'm thinking about it, it was 100% cloud who stalled it by not revoting.

I brought up the role cop thing because BV brought it up in 1457 where he said that he suspected you were a scum investigative. I tried to work out why you as scum would investigate me in anyway, and came to the conclusion that if scum had a rolecop and targeted me with it last night, than victor is likely lying about being a mason, as I would imagine that scum would use their rolecop to try and find the other mason. That being said, now that I'm actually explaining this more I realize that that is not the most useful insight because we could never confirm if a scum investigative targeted me N1. Whatever. You probably aren't going to get lynched again today so it's unlikely to matter right now.

I also just noticed that I left out my analysis of hoopla in my post in question aside from the transition into it. I do want to talk about hoopla's wagon, but I want to talk about cloud more first because I feel like I'm the only one concerned with this.

I first want to highlight posts 1447, 1456, and 1477. All three were from when I was trying to illucidate cloud's behavoir towards the sotty wagon. All three posts feel like cloud is talking to someone he believes is town - he's not trying to antagonize me and tries to play it up like I'm just making a mistake and I've got him all wrong.

Then he votes me in 1483, right after maria does, later justifying it with my 'inconsistency' (1509). The general feeling I get is that when I was pushing him he was trying to make my suspicion go away, but now that I'm a viable lynch option he's totally willing to jump on that.

Okay now I really need to sleep. I would respond more to the fact that I'm being wagoned but I already know that one of the people on my wagon (maria) has literally no reason for scumreading me, and no one else has given anything concrete.

[Jaack]

Youre not wrong in that i did appeal to you, you still didnt come around and now i want you to claim, saying iam the one who staled the sotty's wagon by not putter her on L-1 when YOU unvoted is being hypocrite and flawed logic boi

It's not flawed logic. You say youwanted a claim from sotty. With her at L-2 at the time, why didn't you vote her?

Also, explain my scum motivation for inviting sotty, since you claim my inconsistency is why you are voting me.

[Jaack]

It was L-1, you unvoted, i just didnt vote her to reput her at L-1 and she claimed anyway so idk whats your problem

The problem is that you should have voted if you wanted her to claim. You had ample opportunity between my unvote and her claim and you had no reason to expect her to claim at L-2.

I'm not sure what it means yet, but it's a clear disconnect between your actions and your claimed intentions.

[Jaack]

That it exists.

None of the votes have any attached reasoning with them at all. I have a mild townread on Jaack. Suffice it to say I'm not voting there.

This is the most annoying thing about this game.

I mean, Maria's had a scumread on me since

page 14

and hasn't done anything to argue I was scum that entire time. She just says stuff like 'hey vote jaack' or 'I would vote jaack but no one else is'

Rask's vote is because I feel fake all of the sudden? But he doesn't point out a single post where that's the case.

Cloud's voting me basically because I'm scumreading him. When I asked him to extrapolate on his vote on me in 1578 he ignored me.

Hoopla's voting me because there are town on my wagon I think? Inertia from D1 reads?

Now I've been meaning to chime in on the Hoopla wagon, and I'm warming up to it. I'm currently reading her as null because I felt a lot of her D1 was solid town stuff, even if she was wrong about both GI and me. But her D2 has been lacking to say the least. I don't really like the opening of 1266. It feels a little revisionist - there was nothing about BBT's D1 that made that slot doomed other than town apathy to finding a decent alternative. Seems a bit like she's trying to distance herself from participation on the GI wagon, but it's not a smoking gun to me. In general, there's a lot of that in Hoopla's posts. Stuff that could be from scum, but nothing that makes me compelled to vote.

I'm not super convinced of her being scum though. I'd much rather lynch sotty or cloud today, but it seems I'm alone in both cases. I can at least understand why people are unwilling to vote sotty due to her claim, but I really feel that people are giving cloud to much leeway due to his playstyle.

I'm also concerned that currently 100% of the Hoopla wagon is made up of people on the GI lynch. But whatever, it's not a great wagon but its an okay one, and okay is better than the actual worst (which is my wagon).

VOTE: Hoopla

[Jaack]

Jaack you want more fine first of all that vote you made was opportunistic as fuck "I was kinda okay with a Hoopia wagon" nanana you're just voting it to save your own ass you only pop up when it's convenient for you and you've coasted a hella ton this game the fact your wagon has so much fight to it shows that Hoop is a counter wagon

Yeah, i guess you could say it's opportunistic in that it looks like it's my best opportunity to lynch scum today since no one else wants to vote cloud or sotty. I'm not in love with scum-hoopla but she's none too high on my town reads either.

That all being said, your scum read on me predates my hoopla vote by weeks. You should have more than that.

Moving right along, you say I only show up when it's convenient for me? Wouldn't it have been convenient of me to allow the sotty wagon to go through? Wouldn't it have been convenient of me to lynch GI yesterday when I was option number 2? I don't really want to self read, so give me concrete examples of me showing up only when it's convenient so I can tell you why you're wrong.

And it's not like you've done anything worthwhile this whole game. While you've been scum reading me the whole game, the only two times you've actually given reasons are when I've pried them out of you. You haven't done anything to change people's minds regarding BV, your other scumread either.

I'll admit that I haven't posted as much as I like, but I try and get something accomplished with every one of my posts. You've had hard scumreads on two players for most of this game but have done nothing to see those through.

And finally, this counterwagon garbage again. First of all, it's patently false - Hoopla was a wagon today before I was. But it doesn't matter which came first, what matters is the quality of the wagon. And while I might not be in love with the hoopla wagon, the reasoning for its existence is infinitely better than the reasoning for mine.

I think your town Maria, but you're dead wrong on me.

[Jaack]

What about Creature?

What about him? As a lynch candidate? He's a weak town read for me right now but I admittedly haven't been paying him much attention.

[Jaack]

I've reviewed creature, and mantain a slight townlean there. His posts are lean but I don't really feel much scum coming from them.

I don't want to lynch BV, Rask, or GM today, and a victor lynch is probably a bad idea lathough his utter lack of participation today is pretty disenheartening. Oh yeah, and while Maria is annoying, I'm not interested in that lynch either.

I'm still okay with a Hoopla lynch, but not enthralled.

Sotty and Cloud are the dream lynches.

I could lynch IAI too if we have the support.

[Jaack]

As tempting as it is to vote cloud I'm not sure there is the support for that wagon at this point in the day.

I'd prefer a sotty wagon anyway.

VOTE: Sotty

gogogo

[Jaack]

Not to disrail what's going on here with Maria et al, but I think Cloud is the right lynch today.

His actions surrounding sotty's claim are highly suspect. He gives intent to hammer her, but backtracks after I unvote and start questioning him about his vote, saying he never really intended to hammer her. Then sotty comes in and claims anyway? At L-2? It feels like that was a scum scheme gone awry. Cloud didn't vote for Sotty to put her back at L-1 in case I had a twitchy trigger finger and hammered in spite of her claim.

I was pretty confused by that turn of the events, but it makes more sense after the end of D2 when cloud basically hard defended sotty on the virtue of her claim alone.

VOTE: CloudKicker

I'm more willing to lynch Maria today than I was D2, primarily because she was the only non-sotty person who brought up the idea that the twoface kill framed sotty. Could have been a scum talking point, since the twoface nk was not a traditional choice with a claimed mason out there. I wouldn't be opposed to lynching her, but my priority is cloud. It's possible she's been subverting site meta by hardtownreading her partners or it's possible she's just been wrong about everything.

[Jaack]

I don't think it can be cloud+maria together, given their early talk. Cloud+GM or cloud+hoopla fit on first glance, though.

I've been thinking Cloud+Hoopla made a decent amount of sense, but I'd want to lynch cloud first for sure. Cloud+GM is something that is a possibilty I'm open to, but I'm not feeling it all to strongly

Cloud+Maria doesn't make all that much sense to me, but if Cloud does flip town, then the chance of Maria being scum go way up. But I think he's going to flip scum based both on his own scummy actions and his behavoir around the sotty wagons yesterday.

[Jaack]

Cloud, saying you're an obvious lynch candidate does nothing to help your case. In fact, it reminds me of the start of D2 when sotty started calling herself an obvious lynch candidate. You weren't preordained as a lynch candidate from the start -- at the end of D2, only Rask and I were particularly interested in lynching you. There's a ton of weird interactions between you and sotty beyond just your late attempts to save her. Furthermore, there was simply too much resistance to sotty's lynch at the end of D2 for it to be 100% a bus.

---

I will add one thing else. While at the start of the day I was reconsidering gm as a scum candidate, I'm pretty sure she's town now thinking about the IAI flip. There were a decent amount of IAI scumreads going around D1 and D2 but in all the counterwagons that developed yesterday, the only vote for IAI was by gm. My guess as to why is that scum was playing with the assumption that he was the other mason and knew that a wagon on him would be a waste of time as he wouldn't get lynched once he claimed.

[Jaack]

I think we should just lynch cloud and massclaim D4, but I'm not terribly opposed to doing it today. As long as cloud goes first, I have no objections.

[Jaack]

Fair enough.

As far as order goes, I'm fine with ceding the final say to arona as long as cloud is first to go. Or we can talk it over.

[Jaack]

im not claiming, i dont really give ashit about the massclaim thingy, im tote town and this is completly stupid. @jack im obvious a good lynch candidate, maybe cause i hard defended scum? while everyone forget that idid based on mechanics and not reads like maria did

The fact that you did it based on mechanics over reads is actually worse for you. Maria can very easily just be misguided town. You were unwilling to outright sotty but you were also unwilling to lynch her.

How does everyone feel about an order like this?

Cloud
Creature
MafiaR
Rask
GM
Jaack
BV

We can keep tweaking it until people are okay with the concensus. Obviously I exclude Hoopla (VT) and Arona (Mason) from the list.

That's pretty much fine, although I think it might make more sense for me to claim last since Maria and Cloud still seem to have some suspicion of you, while everyone seems to agree I'm town. It doesn't matter all that much since we're both town, so I'll just let arona make the final choice.

[Jaack]

Cloud, everything you say is really just digging you deeper. All your explanations sound like they're made up after-the-fact. You telling me I'm wrong does nothing to change my mind.

It's not PoE that's burying you, it your and sotty's actions throughout the game. So far, I've mainly focused on what you've done in my casemaking against you, but here's something that sotty did as well that I find points to you

Sotty had a cheesy null-scum read on you all game, in fact from 60 (which was, coincidentally the post that made me scumread her in the first place). But then there's this post here:

People are all up in arms about Cloud threatening to hammer me, but he did the same thing with Grey and it could easily be this Epic mafia style or whatever. Creature has now twice jumped onto blooming weak wagons with no thoughts or logic to back up either vote.

This does not look like the mindset of someone who has expressed a mild interest in you as a scum option. First of all, I was the only person particularly concerned with you at the time, so it's certainly an overexaggeration to say you were under significant pressure. The second thing is that you've repeated one of her talking points in your own defense today with regards to your attempts at pulling out claims.

That's a nice segway into my next topic. Claims.
You asked GI to claim in 650.
You asked sotty to claim in 1400.
You asked Hoopla to claim in 1477.
You asked me to claim in 1565. (I was only at L-2 at the time!)

And now you won't claim when it's pretty much consensus that you ought to. I'd say more, but I don't think I really need to extrapolate.

[Jaack]

@rask not claiming yet

*Sigh*

You're at L-1, with multiple people off the wagon agreeing you're the best lynch of the day. Don't be a hypocrite and just claim already. Dragging it out isn't going to save you. If you try some PR claim at deadline to leave us scrambling for a lynch, know it's not going to work. We lynched a PR claim yesterday and it turned out better.

As far as creature goes, I kinda get the scum case on him, but at the same time I'm not feeling all that much scum-motivation from what he's doing. His general absense at the end of D2 makes it a bit harder to read, but I feel like it wouldn't be advantageous to scum to avoid the sotty lynch. Either try and stop it or bus for townpoints.

From sotty's point of view, she was townreading michel pretty clearly but scumreading creature. Not really feeling much there either.

[Jaack]

Calling aronajaackvoid council.

Who we lynch if not Cloud?

I'm pretty singleminded at this point honestly but... eh maybe Hoopla idk? I might be able to get behind Maria as well. Some of BV points on her are getting to me.

[Jaack]

Was Hoopla's play today better?

Hoopla's been a tough one to read right from the beginning. Sotty7

was

buddying her quite a bit though. I got excited for a moment where I thought she was making a fake-townslip about daytalk despite reading the rules but I don't know if that means anything. Like goodmorning, she got onto some bad wagons like the Jaack wagon yesterday but overall, I think she's town. Why? Do you have any reservations about her?

Eh, unlike with GM or Maria there's nothing in her play thay seems very unlikely to come from scum. I do agree with rask that townhoopla is likely too useful to lynch on a weak read

[Jaack]

@Jaack, so what is it about GM that's unlikely to come from scum? There were a couple of things I noticed but I'm not sure if you are referring to the same points.

Trying to swing the lynch to IAI at the end of D2 is the main thing. The fact that that wagon never developed D2 despite a decent amount of people (myself included) being interested leads me to believe that scum had figured out he was the other mason and decided to not waste their time with that lynch.

ScumGM trying to swing a lynch to IAI accomplishes what exactly? Either he would claim or arona would confirm and then it's right back to lynching sotty.

[Jaack]

Calling the council of not dumb players to analyse 2236.

Feels to me like Maria has decided BV is scum and is looking for reasons to scumread him.

But to resond more specifically, I don't see why BV would have to bus sorry for towncred when he was the most consensus town player there was at the time. Sotty's lynch wasn't inevitable at the time so it's not like he had to move on it to mantain those townreads.

[Jaack]

One thing you need to realize is that we have a limited number of mislynches (three) before we lose. I'm asking you to please not force us to waste one on you. If you are a PR, you should be one of the clears. One of the people we POE out so our lynches are more accurate. Getting lynched is the worst outcome. Claiming is not the end of the world. You've been happy to declare intent on anyone that's at L-1. There is no way you are getting away without claiming. Please claim ASAP.

Lo. He demanded I claim when I was at L-2 yesterday. This delaying garbage is a scum tactic to inhibit town discussion. Cloud knows we aren't going anywhere without his claim. He's not even trying to discuss his reads anymore - just delaying.

[Jaack]

UNVOTE:

I don't really buy his claim (1418 doesn't strike me as particularly likely to come from a bg) but it's veracity will be evident with time.

I'm not really feeling any strong enough about anyone else's chance of being scum so I'm going to review some isos and stuff.

BlackVoid is still town though obviously. I literally don't see a case against him.

[Jaack]

Meh... I don't really like any of the lynches being discussed.

I'd rather not lynch rask or gm. I think that BV points on rask might have merit but at the same time rask looks rather town to me and has for most of the game.

I've stated why I don't really want to lynch GM. I might be willing to compromise at deadline if there are no other options, but again, rather not.

BlackVoid is town and I'm not lynching that.

I could lynch any of the other candidates reasonably willingly but I'm going to need to be convinced.

[Jaack]

@Jaack, I still think you should ask yourself, if not Rask then who? I have a hard time seeing a scumteam outside of Rask. The only one I can see is Creature and MariaR but it's a bit iffy. There's also the IAI nightkill. IAI mildly suspected Rask saying that he thought Rask was just telling him what he wanted to hear which is exactly how I felt about Rask at times. If no one sticks out as obviously scummy, I think it points to one of the better players being scum and Rask and Sotty7 fit as a team extremely well. One other thing - when Sotty7 started D2 by voting Rask, my initial thought was "that's probably a bus vote." I think she anticipated pressure D2 based on the TwoFace kill and wanted to start by distancing.

I don't think the IAI stuff matters much tbh. I'm pretty sure based on how D2 progressed that scum knew IAI was the second mason by N1 and was hoping he'd get vigged and/or town would lynch him D2. That didn't happen and was unlikely to do so in the future, so they killed him N2. I don't think scumRask would feel any need to nk IAI over a mild scumread.

As for who else, I don't think Maria/Hoopla is unlikely as you say. In fact I don't really feel ready to rule out any Hoopla combos...

I'm also not willing to town clear cloud like all yall seem wont to do, but I know it's pointless to argue that at this time.

I'm willing to reconsider rask as a lynch candidate tho, but I think you're stretching a little.

[Jaack]

I'd like to take leadership, but my reads are too muddled to really have the urge to push something through at this point.

Between Maria and Hoopla, I think Hoopla is probably more likely to flip scum. I can definitely see a scenario where she bussed sotty because she knew sotty''s tracker claim was not going to hold up.

[Jaack]

Yeah, I can definitely see the pattern with rask and the sotty wagons, but I'm still feeling rask is reasonably town.

That being said, I could probably talk myself into voting for rask since my scumfeels towards Maria aren't all that strong. I'll give rask a second review to see if my townfeels there are based too much on my memory.

[Jaack]

Rask would you vote hoopla?

Because that would be my preferred choice of the lynchable people to be lynched.

[Jaack]

VOTE: Hoopla

Woo woo

[Jaack]

Twist of the century lol. I guess this means I'm in this game for the long haul.

I also cannot cc cloud.

[Jaack]

I'll unvote to appease bv but I still want a Hoopla lynch.
UNVOTE:


As far as IAI being a mason over you, Victor had a pretty unexplained hard townread on IAI, going as far to argue against his vigging when GI brought it up. I mean, I was assuming you (bv) were the other mason, but victor's townread on IAI was one of those things that made no sense at the time to me and then made way too much sense after IAI flipped.

That being said, you're case on GM makes some degree of sense. I think I can alter my mental narritive relating to this whole mason stuff enough to the point where GM is a viable lynch candidate to me.

[Jaack]

@Jaack you here?

I am here now.

[Jaack]

@Jaack, you completely set on Hoopla or you'd still consider lynching elsewhere?

Hoopla is my first choice but I'm willing to here arguments for others.

[Jaack]

I think your recent GM case has some merit but I want her to get in here and respond to new developments first.

I could probably still lynch Maria but I've never been in love with that.

Creature I'm rather meh on lynching.

[Jaack]

Well, I think Hoopla is probably scum but I'm not sure and I think another flip would help to read her. But I don't want to hold up a lynch on someone who may as well be scum and who I was scumreading all of D2. In the event Hoopla is town, if you really think the flip will help you get better reads, then I'll go ahead and hammer. If not, then it might be worth exploring other options. MariaR is who I'd want lynched just because her trying to do everything the opposite of what I do feels fake but I admit I could be a bit biased there. Although she did use that as an excuse to not vote Sotty7 so there might be something. I'm not wholly confident there though. If it's Hoopla, who do you think is the partner?

Hoopla flipping town would definitely point to a more coordinated effort on scum to avoid bussing each other, but I'm pretty sure she'll flip scum.

I don't really feel Maria as scum. I don't remember who said it, but someone said that sotty tried to take advantage of Maria's hard scumread on me D2 and I can kind of see that with regards to GM and Maria D3 with the wagon on you.

As for partners, Hoopla/GM makes some sense. I don't think Hoopla/Creature doesn't make sense, but I'm not in love with this pair.

Now that I'm acutally focusing on partners, it feels like every partnership has at least one of GM or Hoopla. Maria/Creature just seems strange to me, and I'm pretty sure rask is town.

Hoopla is still my number one choice by a substantial margin.

[Jaack]

In this episode of Scum, hoopla and goodmorning work hard at trying to expand the town's lynchpool.

Note that as soon as BV became conftown and GM could no longer push there, I am suddenly back in the lynchpool. Incredible magic!

I'm pretty sure we're at Hoopla/GM with a creature dark horse possible, but unlikely.

VOTE: Hoopla

Back to L-2

[Jaack]

Eh, I think Hoopla/Creature is slightly more likely than GM/Creature

Pedit - @Hoopla, eh I don't think the way you've pulled me back into your lynchpool is necessarily scummy, but with GM she tried and almost succeeded in pulling obvtown BV into the lynchpool earlier. There's a pattern of trying to wreck the townblock there.

[Jaack]

GM makes the most sense at this point for scum no 1, but I'm pretty stumped as far as scum no 2 goes.

[Jaack]

Well looking at partners for a second

GM/Rask doesn't make much sense to me due to Rask's push there on D2. If scum was planning on powerbussing, then the obvious target would have been sotty because sotty was in a weaker position than either rask or gm.

GM/Maria works pretty well.

Rask/Maria seems to work reasonably well too, but not as good as GM/Maria.

Rask/Creature is a strange one that I can see as concievable but it still feels weird.

Maria/Creature I have literally no opinion of. Someone tell me what I should think.

GM/Creature seems a little more likely than Rask/GM, only because GM didn't start scumreading creature really until AFTER sotty claimed tracker, which I guess makes more sense as a time to bus then immediately at the start of D2.

The least likely partnership is GM/Rask I think. Lynching Maria might make the most sense based on that alone....

[Jaack]

If the choice is between Maria and Rask, I would vastly prefer Maria.

[Jaack]

I think I'm just going to listen to BV and hope he's more correct than me.

VOTE: MariaR

[Jaack]

@BV - Which is more likely - GM+Creature or GM+Rask. Because both involve hard busses. (I'm going off memory here so correct me if I'm wrong).

Uff I think GM is the scummiest player left, but the only pairing that makes much sense right now is GM+Maria, in which case the higher percentage play is to probably just lynch Maria.

[Jaack]

Okay, I've been racking my brain over all these pairing and stuff and the more I do that the more I begin to think it's best just to get a flip and evaluate with that information. But what I do think:

I think Rask is probably town at this point. If she is scum, it's not with GM.
Creature I'm lightly townreading, but I can kinda see him paired with just about anyone.
Maria... honestly I'm about ready to stop trying to read. Sometimes she feels town and sometimes she just makes more sense as scum.
I think GMslot is more likely to be scum than not.

That up there is my reverse lynch preference order.

If I were forced to choose a scumteam, GM/Maria I think. I can see why Maria would bus GM today - Hope I join the wagon and make it the primary choice, let cloud lead a lynch on rask D5 and then get to lylo with me a creature D6. That makes some degree of sense to me.

[Jaack]

The whole scum pool minus 1 voting this, again, proves rask is a better lynch

On the one hand this logic seems sound at first, but at the same time, it would imply that BOTH scum are hitching their wagons to the GM/fitz train without any of the non-lynchable people joining it first.

I could definitely see scum-creature bussing here afraid that BV and I would lynch the wagon before he got the chance.

I'm pretty much fine with this lynch, but I'll leave the hammer to BV.

UNVOTE:

[Jaack]

I think it's especially noteworthy that fitz apparently didn't bother to read me even though I'm not a PR and I featured prominently in D1 votecounts and such. Even if he did somehow pick up on the buried claims there's no way he should be immediately be considering me such obvtown.

[Jaack]

This is weird. Can dying actually be beneficial for the greater good?

If I'm lynched, fitz is extremely likely secured to be the return. For resulting 3p BV is certainly gone, but also should be cloud, leaving the more sensible jaack to decide the 3p of maria creature, where he likely picks correctly.

You know, it's been in the back of my mind for a couple of days now that there's a pretty solid chance that I'm going to have to decide this game, but this is the first time it really hit me. And it hit me like a meteor covered in chainsaw volcanoes.

I still don't think rask is scum. The whole 'lynching me for the great good thing' on the surface is somethin I'd normally read as scummy but in this situation I'm getting the feels that it's not. Rask has been floating it to freely even when the lynch is elsewhere. Seems like an awfully big risk to take for scum.

I'm not sure BV is right in saying that only creature teams make sense, but I do agree that creature makes some degree of sense with every other scum candidate. While I still feel more strongly that gm/fitz is scum, I'd rather join the wagon that has conftown on it.

VOTE: Creature

L-1

[Jaack]

I requested, but I think Jaack didn't.

I totes requested it.

That being said, I'm not normally one to make judgments based on stuff like this, so I'm not going to pay attention to it all that much.

An exceedingly quick look over Maria's iso makes me lean creature as the last scum tbh. For most of the game she was 'scumreading' BV, Creature, and myself, but it only really felt like she really wanted the creautre lynch until BV and I were off the table.

I'm still feeling comfortable townreading rask. I don't really buy that Maria would hard townread her two buddies to hell and back. If rask were her scumbuddy and ended up getting lynched before her, it would, well, not look good.

I'm back in no mans land with fitz.

[Jaack]

does no mans land means a null or scumread ?

It's an 'I'm utterely confused at to what's going on with this slot because sometimes I think its obvscum but sometimes I see posts that just don't make sense from scum so I'm going to vaguely call it null' read.


As for rask I've considered and reconsidered there, but there's just some things that don't add up. For example, why would both scum try to lynch gm yesterday without anyone else voting there first? You just don't normally see that kind of coordination. And then why would Maria maintain such a hard townread on rask while rask is literally saying 'y'all should lynch me!' Especially when Maria had been given a hard time over her hard townread on sotty. It just seems like a losing proposition.

[Jaack]

Despite what creature says about vca, I still wanna do some from earlier. Specifically D2, because all scum was alive then.

(I am treating Cloud and me as conftown because reasons)

Hoopla

(4)goodmorning ,

I Am Innocent

, Creature ,

BlackVoid

L-2 ,

Jaack

(4)Raskolnikov ,

MariaR

,

CloudKicker

,

Hoopla

L-2 ,
Creature (2)

VictorDeAngelo

,

Sotty7

,

Sotty7

(1)

Jaack

,
(Editted for formating)

Did Hoopla get to L-2 without scum being involved at all? This vote count is pretty strong evidence that Rask is not scum.

Hoopla

(3)

I Am Innocent

, Creature ,

BlackVoid

,

Jaack

(4)Raskolnikov ,

MariaR

,

CloudKicker

,

Hoopla

L-2,
Creature (2)

Sotty7

, goodmorning ,

Sotty7

(1)

Jaack

,
Not Voting (1)

VictorDeAngelo

,
(Editted again for formatting)

Big change here is gm switching from Hoopla to creature. That too seems unlikely to come from scum (note I still have to review this switch in context). But leaving a wagon on town with three other town on it to join your scumbuddy alone? Seems strange.

Votecount 2.09

Hoopla

(4)

I Am Innocent

, Creature ,

BlackVoid

,

Jaack

, L-2,

Jaack

(4)

MariaR

,

CloudKicker

,

Hoopla

,

Sotty7

L-2,
Creature (1)goodmorning ,
Not Voting (2)

VictorDeAngelo

, Raskolnikov ,
(Guess what, it's edited for formating!)

If creature is town, that would mean that town successfully managed to put Hoopla at L-2 and no scum felt inclined to move? Okay.

I do wanna review the actions between these votecounts, but this makes a lot of sense if creature is scum and not much if either rask or fitz is.

[Jaack]

Can I know what I did wrong this game I feel like at the end I was stuck in a loop and couldn't do much this was def one of my meh scum games

I was townreading you for most of the game, so I'm not sure if my view will help much, but I think you ended up with the wrong allies. After D2 when your strongest townread was flipped scum and your two strongest scumreads up until that point were townblocked, you were doomed to the PoE monster.

As for myself, I'm still angry with myself for not continuing with my cloud push D3 after the claim. I didn't really buy it and I didn't have any other strong scumreads but I talked myself into it.