Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Kairal]

Hello everyone.

Looks like we ended up in the same game after all Mini.

Have a vote to celebrate

VOTE: MiniDeathStar

[Kairal]

Lets start off by being a bit scummy or i wont get pushed by scum

Original Roll String: 1d9 (STATIC)

1 9-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

VOTE: Io

hello old neighbor

I assume Cloudkicker's d9 thing is just part of 'deliberately looking scummy'. Or is it a genuine slip? Would we typically expect 4 scum in this game size?

[Kairal]

It's scummy enough to be worth a vote anyway

VOTE: cloudkicker

[Kairal]

Ok so you think 4 maf is unlikely? Why did he choose a 9 then? If he was deliberately doing a 'lol I so scummy, look at me excluding scum from the vote' he'd do d10 right? Himself + 2 others. If he was Maf he wouldn't know if there's a serial killer I assume.

[Kairal]

Yeah I guess I do tend to read a lot into things. I also didn't realize the roller worked that way.

[Kairal]

I was being serious about Cloud though. Remember a fellow who claimed scum recently and turned out to be the real scum? Hint, their name also starts with C.

There's also this:

Hello, i fliped my favorite alignement :3 its a secret tho which one it is

Sound like it's town? Because to me it doesn't sound like town would be a secret.

Incidentally I did spend the whole last game tunnelling someone who's name started with C because they were deliberately looking scummy. I really should try to avoid that this time.

[Kairal]

I'm already liking aj for town

Anyway since the die seemed to be a dead end I'll have to start sniffing somewhere else. Can you elaborate on why that post seems to make AJ look town?

[Kairal]

Yeah I figured you were talking about someone else. Just an amusing coincidence.

[Kairal]

I was just gonna let the die thing go. However I don't really see how that's a townslip. Can you explain? I'm a new player so I'm still learning some stuff

[Kairal]

I'm not quite sure what to make of this exchange. I'm leaning both of you being town right now.

However I am curious about Grey's vote. At this point a vote for Cloud feels like a serious vote and not an RVS vote. Please provide some reasoning Grey.

VOTE: Grey

[Kairal]

@Culted what is there to read into, as a town with a lot of attention i expected some kind of chainsaw/coasty NAI posts from scum and his last could fit in these if aynthing but thats really nothing

Yes, Cloud, we get it, I called you scum and I still don't think you're town. Why are you repeating it? Like literally what was the purpose of that wall?

@culted:

Not sure yet. I've played with Jin twice so far and from what I saw he's a bit weird/scummy in tone and playstyle so I can't read him until I've seen actual decisions from him.

@Culted : i am mentoring on another mafia site, this line could be added to my book of tells about how this is a clear cut really really common pattern from mafia to answer this kind of question, it keeps everything opens and looks like game solving when its not, its just refusing to answer

Although... Cloud isn't your post on Jin functionally identical to Mini's? You both say he's sorta suss but we probably shouldn't make anything of it. Seems a bit odd to be calling her out for it.

[Kairal]

Haha. I appreciate your vote of confidence. When I do get scum I really have to hope you're not in the game :p

[Kairal]

Perhaps I should clarify the die thing. I did indeed read that as a scumslip not a townslip. However that was based on two wrong assumptions. Firstly I thought the roller was just a standard 1-9 roller. I didn't realize it was linked to the forum (i.e. I assumed he'd just manually skip over anyone who was a scum buddy). Secondly I thought 4 mafia might be possible in this game size. A few people have chimed in to correct me on both these points. It is now clear that it couldn't have been a scumslip and anyone familiar with the roller or the normal number of scum in the game would know that.

I don't buy it being a townslip though - it just indicates that he most recently played a micro game.

Anyway what's interesting to me is that Jin suggested that there could be something more to it. Is Jin as inexperienced as I am? Or was he trying to run with a newbie's mistake to get someone lynched? Lets move over to Jin and find out

VOTE: SecretAgentJin

[Kairal]

Oh Massive also asked why I think Cloudkicker and Mini aren't scum. Well I feel like Mini's suspicion of Cloud is pretty well founded and she seemed to be chasing it up appropriately. However I think she's wrong and that Cloud is town.

Generally in my experience scum are relaxed under pressure whilst town panic. I'm guessing this is because scum know they're lying and are expecting (on some level at least) to be caught out. Town however see a wagon as a betrayal - their own allies are turning on them. Therefore when experiencing pressure scum will tend to reply carefully and calmly whilst town will flail wildly. I'm seeing a lot of flailing from cloud. Most particularly him receiving a moderate push from Mini and unleashing a full voiced, totally unironic OMGUS in response. It reads a lot like tunneling something which isn't really beneficial for scum. Maybe it's all just wifom and I've been taken in but for now I'll give him a pass.

[Kairal]

Yeah that makes sense. I'm trying to say this without being mean to cloud. I just don't see cloud doing an elaborate deception here. His flailing feels genuine to me. For example I think a scum player trying to look like a flailing newbie would not continue to insist he's super experienced.

I guess it's more of a gut read than anything else. At any rate I'm not gonna be too bothered if we do end up lynching him. For now though I'd prefer to get a bit more of a feel for everyone else.

[Kairal]

I dont know about these couple of votes on me but it really isnt a wagon so i will let it rest for now. I think the fact that CK cant go a single post without dropping the words "im town" is a bit troubling to me. It seems like he has to convincingly talk himself into believing that he is town. Personally i think CK purposely scumslipped so he could say that he is obviously town because no scum would REALLY do what he did and expose themselves when he actually has been scum all along.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: CloudKicker

I voted on you in the hopes of hearing a bit more about the d9 thing. It's clear that no-one with experience with either the roller or games of this player size would think the my theory that it was a scum slip made sense. However you entertained it anyway. Why?

[Kairal]

Jin that's perfectly fair reasoning. It's not what I'm asking though. I (completely wrongly) suggested that maybe Cloud had scumslipped by revealing there were 4 scum in the game. 4 people commented on that. Mini, Io and Culted all said it was dumb and clearly didn't make sense (which it turns out, it doesn't). You played along with it. Why?

[Kairal]

On the one hand it's clear that at this point scum have more info than we do so their relationships should feel different then ours. On the other hand I can see how it's easy to get all tied up in building fantasy teams based on interactions with a single person that all falls apart when it turns out that first person wasn't scum and you've just been misreading them. I guess it seems to make sense to try and deliberately build interactions at this point through questions but probably best to leave actually using those interactions for votes till later days when we have more info.

[Kairal]

Honestly if cloud flipped scum I could see his read on you making sense

By 'his' in this post you mean Grey's read that AJ is scum partner? That seems to be the case but you could also be referring to a cloud read on AJ I'm not seeing.

[Kairal]

Anyway Cloud mind elaborating on why you have FoS on IO? I don't see anything off about either of her posts

[Kairal]

Lets start off by being a bit scummy or i wont get pushed by scum

Original Roll String: 1d9 (STATIC)

1 9-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

VOTE: Io

hello old neighbor

I assume Cloudkicker's d9 thing is just part of 'deliberately looking scummy'. Or is it a genuine slip? Would we typically expect 4 scum in this game size?

That is a bit weird that 9 numbers would be used instead of 12 or 13. I am interested to see Cloud's response.

MDS, what do you think of the D9 roll instead of D12 or 13?

In these posts rather than pointing out that what I've said doesn't make any sense you instead appear to agree with me. The first one could just be reasonably looking to get more content out of Cloud. The second one addressed to Mini seems to be an invitation for her to run with the idea that the D9 is a scum slip. Something which I've been informed by no fewer than 3 other players definitely could not be the case. I'm not sure why you did not correct me on this and instead appeared to agree with me.

[Kairal]

I see. So you simply didn't want to embarrass me Jin? Thanks I appreciate that.

Anyway I'm satisfied with that for now
UNVOTE: SecretAgentJin

[Kairal]

Alright. Elhabe I'd like to hear a bit more from you. Only one post so far. What are your thoughts on... AJ and Grey?

VOTE: Elhabe21

[Kairal]

Hi Dierfire

The person you replaced hadn't done much so far so I'm currently voting you in order to encourage you :p

VOTE: Dierfire

[Kairal]

Sheeping discussion. Personally I've never really understood the concept. The whole reason I make arguments is in order to persuade people. I want them to go 'Oh that's a convincing argument that X is scum, so I'll vote for them too'. To me sheeping seems like successful persuasion. On the other hand last game scum did blatantly use my argument, everyone else called them out for it and lynched them. So it seems it is a scumtell. It's a weird thing that's for sure.

Anyway right now we have 2 votes on AJ (from Massive and Io) and I don't see any reasoning provided for either. Mind explaining? Personally I looked through his ISO and he looks fine to me. By which I mean he has a reasonable number of posts and doesn't seem afraid to create solid interactions with people, and is actively creating content. Now sure my reads are often poop as previously established but if you post persuasive arguments as to why he should be lynched maybe I'll vote him too :p.

[Kairal]

As an aside apparently I really am very transparently scum. I was playing Avalon with a friend the other day. He called me being scum on the very first vote (and I voted the same way I always do!). In fact he read who my scum partner was based on my interactions that first vote too. I managed to win by OMGUSing him super hard though. In fact it was me and the other scum who were selected to go on the final mission. Good times.

Anyway the point is when I roll scum I'll OMGUS super hard, kill you first night and then claim it's an obvious frame job.

[Kairal]

Anyway re sheeping. I agree with you completely :p. Seriously though I do agree that semantics discussion is not at all useful to town. However I feel like Grey has been behind it both times. Now I like Grey because he obviously town reads me. However it seems like semantics are the main reasons for him voting AJ and I'd prefer a little more elaboration there.

VOTE: Grey

(Guess I'll abandon my CPR vote then. I've still got my eyes on you Dierfire)

Don't think I've forgotten you Io and Massive: both your votes on AJ are equally weird. Massive has this mas... huge post that seems to be leading to a vote on Mini and then abruptly swaps to AJ.

Io votes Aj citing my argument. However the only argument I can see with AJ is about whether scum or town are more likely to flail. I don't really see why she'd be voting Aj for that. Unless she thinks it was all part of a scheme to cast suspicion on Cloud (remember that I was saying Cloud's flailing meant town, so the disagreement implies that AJ thinks he's scum). However AJ's position is pretty clearly "Cloud is town and we should look elsewhere". So yeah. I don't see the scum motive here.

[Kairal]

Cloud I get it. This can be frustrating game. When I'm getting heated I try to take a step back, walk around and cool off. If you really think Mini's scum I'd suggest you take a break and come back when you're ready to argue your case calmly.

[Kairal]

Cloud I don't want to misrepresent you. Just to be clear you believe the optimal play is to vote Mini regardless of anything that happens? Even though you believe Mafia will vote with you i.e. you don't think she's Mafia? You've had a chance to cool down now and I just want to be 100% you think this is a good idea.

[Kairal]

Cool. I'm glad that's sorted. That means the most pressing thing right now is... I think it's probably the 3 votes on AJ. I can't see a reason to vote him and none of Grey, Massive or Io have presented one. I don't think it's possible that all 3 are scum. That would be a bit too easy. I do think scum is hiding behind it. If you're town and you're voting AJ please explain why. If you're not town and you're voting AJ please vote for yourself :p

[Kairal]

Good reasons? It seems like he thinks he might be cloud's scum buddy. But he thinks cloud is town. Not sure about that

[Kairal]

Am I missing something? He accused you of confbiasing which only town or a neutral can do I guess sure. But it was pretty clear he meant arguing from a conclusion (because he thinks you're scum).

I guess it could be a scum slip... I'm not convinced he's scum yet but sure you've justified your vote.

UNVOTE: Grey

[Kairal]

Cloud kicker

You bring up the fact that you have town slipped several times. Why do you think that couldn't have been faked by scum?

Everyone is so preoccupied about mafia faking slips and such

lol

lol, that guy is saying im scum for calling myself town and doing a play ''no scum would REALLY do'', make sens

his intent to accuse you of intentionally shitting up the thread with wifom rung clear to me

114 leads me to believe cloudkicker is more concerned with being self-congratulatory than actually trying to prove they are town

No. Just blunt.

Im not impressed with your hard on for ck

That last post is addressed to Jin for context. Flubber why do you go from a series of posts that seem pretty anti- ck to snapping at Jin for voting him? Is this because you no longer suspect CK? None of your posts seem to indicate that shift.

[Kairal]

Sure, if you're able to provide any reasoning behind it. Your current state of analysis is basically "I see you as scum because you are scum" and nothing more. You've adopted to tunnel on CK and apparently see me pointing out that NIA =/= Good play is 'coaching'. You've confirmbiased the game already.

You've confirmbiased the game already.

Only town can confbias. You are talking to me like you know I'm town even though you're voting for me.

That only strengthens my scumread on you.

Confbias might've been a wrong choice of wording. Tunneling would be the proper word.

However Confbias can absolutely come from scum (they know the roles from the getgo). It just isn't the correct word for what I asserted.

There's nothing to double down on. My semantic issue doesn't change my opinion, and you're trying to extrapolate shit that isn't there from it.

Ok I went back through AJ's ISO. These are the 3 posts discussing it. I'm a bit more sympathetic to Grey's argument now. It is weird that he specifically says confbias can come from scum then clarifies that he DOESN'T mean confbias he means tunneling (which... presumably only comes from town?). I dunno it's still semantics at heart but... yeah it's a bit weird.

I was actually looking for the post which convinced me he was town the first time. Basically he initially calls out CK for being anti-town but suggests we should move on. I see how there can be scum motivation for this. However when I say I think Cloud looks like flailing town AJ suggests that most experienced players are good enough at faking it that I shouldn't read much into it. That's effectively an attack on cloud rather than a defense. I initially read this as being contrary to scum motives (if they're partners why initially defend and then attack?) (if Aj is the scum and CK is town then surely CK is an easy mislynch so why defend in the first place?). Thinking it over a bit more I guess he could be hoping to get a mislynch without actually doing it himself, and then after the town flip he could be all "I told you he was prob town".

So yeah I dunno. Grey's case isn't as bad as I thought and the reason I was town reading him is pretty flimsy. Most of the rest of his posts are meta or semantics fluff that doesn't really help. That's all getting a bit suspicious. On the other hand I still think the other two votes on him without any reasoning feel a bit scummy.

I'm not quite ready to vote him yet. I want to hear more of why those other two did but I'm leaning towards it. Sorry Grey. It was unfair for me to dismiss your case as a bad one.

[Kairal]

Well tbh I was always planning on voting cloud. I just wanted to fish around for a bit more info on everyone else before getting to it. Yes the die thing was stupid but everything else he posted looked scummy as hell to me. I kind of had a gut feeling that maybe he was too obvious to be scum, but bad players can be scum too.

Anyway now that Cloud's gone it hardly seems fair to lynch Shadow for it. I'd like to see Newman's thoughts on other players. I guess Aj or Massive seem to be the two we're talking about now...

I understand Massive's vote on me and it makes sense. If anyone still wants to discuss it I can explain but it's kind of a complicated situation without much pay off so I'd rather not bother.

I don't understand his vote on AJ - he never provided a reason as far as I can see. His reasoning for voting Mini is also pretty wacky. You'd be a lot easier to trust if you just explained where you were coming from you know that?

Mini seems pretty town to me this game. She's playing about the same as she did in her last town game. She also provides clear explanations for who she's voting for at any time and it makes sense even if I don't always agree. It's possible I'm biased since she's the only one I've played with before I guess. I don't think so though.

[Kairal]

@Flubber. I see you weren't actually suspecting Cloud. I inferred something in your posts which wasn't actually there then I guess.

[Kairal]

You'd be a lot easier to trust if you just explained where you were coming from you know that?

I'm gonna blow your mind here. If I don't explain blank votes, I never deceive you. WHOA MIND BLOWN

I laughed. I'm still gonna vote you though since I feel unexplained votes are anti-town and you seem committed to not explaining them.

VOTE: massive

[Kairal]

Incidentally as far as Gamma goes, as far as I'm concerned rule 0 is in effect. Rule 0 is: the gamerunner is always right. if you have a problem with their ruling bring it up after the game. Gamma says the replacement isn't AI then it's not AI. If it were Gamma could always have restarted the game or whatever.

[Kairal]

I'm currently sorting into two baskets. Would not lynch day 1 and the rest. Right now I have Mini, Grey, Dierfire and Culted in basket 1. Including myself that means I have the bare minimum for a town read from 5 of 13 people. That's not my 'would never lynch, clearly town bff' list. That's my exceeded bare minimum to not get lynched list. If I'm super generous I could maybe fit Jin in there.

Why are the rest of you making this so hard? You can't all be non-town aligned. I would basically be ok casting a vote on 7 players here either because they've posted virtually nothing (IamI, Newmann), have an inexplicable aversion to explaining their votes (Io,massive), accused a player of tunneling and then clarified that tunneling is not the one that comes from scum! (AJ), are most notable for being weirdly hostile to someone for no reason (Flubber) or... whatever the hell cloud was doing. If you are town throw me a bone here. Give me a reason, any reason, why I shouldn't be voting you out.

/rant over

[Kairal]

You've confirmbiased the game already.

Only town can confbias. You are talking to me like you know I'm town even though you're voting for me.

That only strengthens my scumread on you.

Confbias might've been a wrong choice of wording. Tunneling would be the proper word.

However Confbias can absolutely come from scum (they know the roles from the getgo). It just isn't the correct word for what I asserted.

Cool you're here. Lets talk about it. You initially claim he's confbias - he says only town can be confbiased so why are you voting him. You respond with... this. You clarifiy that confbias can come from scum but you don't think he's confbias. Surely you can see how this looks like you are arguing he's not scum. Yet you continue to vote him. Just to get this totally clear for me: what do you mean when you say tunneling?

[Kairal]

Ok I see the disconnect here. I've been seeing tunneling as a town thing and given that you specify that confbias can be scum it looked weird. Thanks I'll put you in basket 1 for now.

It really is that easy folks. Just give me something to go on. 6 people left. Well... maybe 7 depending on Jin's next few posts.

Like Io. You still have a naked vote for AJ with 0 explanation as to why. Your most recent post indicates that you weren't even sure about AJ and were possibly thinking of voting Grey. None of this was clear to me because you never said anything about it. If you are town leaving a record of these thoughts makes it easier for the rest of us to see where you are coming from and forces scum to also commit to positions and thoughts all of which makes our job easier. Please help me out here.

[Kairal]

I think it may well be a scumslip or it may be a simple mistake. Personally it is nowhere near as incriminating as Io and massive's repeated refusals to engage in basic town behaviour. At least AJ's playing the game, posting reads and reasonable questions. I'm getting absolutely nothing of value from Io or massive despite repeated requests. I'm not sure if Io straight up ignoring it is more or less frustrating than massive outright telling me it's not gonna happen.

[Kairal]

I forgot you were voting massive :p. Anyway if you recall this conversation started with me trying to decide whether AJ should fit into my lynch list or my reassess tomorrow list. You responded so I responded. I'm feeling confident at this point that you're town, so I feel like your read is genuine. I'm just trying to decide whether or not I agree.

[Kairal]

I already said, I'm like 90% sure in the vote post itself, that I voted AJ because I had real Kai's points about AJ then agreed with the assessment.
Then he made the 378 which is just a long scum orientated post throwing a little bit of shade at a lot of people but not outright accusing most of them.

The thing is... I never made a case on AJ. Seriously check out my discussions with Grey where he's frustrated with me specifically because I've frequently defended AJ. I have one post that could be considered an attack on AJ and it's really more of a concession that he may have scumslipped. Emphasis on 'may'

[Kairal]

Kairal

: Can I direct you to 41, 47, 117, and 291, and ask you whether or not you think those votes had reasons?

No those votes are also annoying. However culted's post in 41 appeared to be a late RVS, I specifically voted Grey for 47, I specifically called out Grey again for 117. In both cases he explained where he was coming from. 291... Hmm yeah that's a little weird. Mini why are you feeling better about Massive? I believe you already had FoS on Io previously so I get why you changed the vote to her. But why not massive?

Massive why do you have time to scour the thread for other naked votes and not explain your own naked votes. Maybe I'm stomping all over some brilliant plan that comes from years of experience here I dunno. But it really does just look like a scum chucking in votes and unable to justify them.

[Kairal]

I'm currently sorting into two baskets. Would not lynch day 1 and the rest. Right now I have Mini, Grey, Dierfire and Culted in basket 1. Including myself that means I have the bare minimum for a town read from 5 of 13 people. That's not my 'would never lynch, clearly town bff' list. That's my exceeded bare minimum to not get lynched list. If I'm super generous I could maybe fit Jin in there.

So here's the thing. Kairal's actively trying to reduce the pool of suspects, which is incredibly town and super bad for scum unless he put his partners in his "basket 1". And tbh if those people are the scum, we may have already lost the game, we just don't know it yet.

Either way, I don't see how any scumread on that man could be justified other than with forced nitpicking.

The only people who work to actively *expand* the possible pool of lynchables by feigning paranoia before MYLO/LYLO and looking to cast doubt on others' townreads, are the scum.

Thanks Mini. You know when you put it like this it makes it sound like I'm doing the pool of suspects again. As you recall that didn't end so well for us last time. I assure you I'm not locking myself into these reads. They're purely for day 1 and I'll reassess everyone on the list tomorrow. It's just a way to narrow down my potential lynch targets for today.

[Kairal]

Massive why do you have time to scour the thread for other naked votes and not explain your own naked votes. Maybe I'm stomping all over some brilliant plan that comes from years of experience here I dunno. But it really does just look like a scum chucking in votes and unable to justify them.

It's day one. I don't have a brilliant plan. I also think anyone who says they have a concrete reason for voting on day one is probably wrong and scum will love having them around to exploit.

---

MDS

: Specifically can you quote my "bad logic" that I've "doubled down on"?

Ok. Does this mean all of your votes till now are random votes? You should at least have some reason for them right? Like you made this post earlier about how scum are brilliantly mind controlling people into lynching you. I'm offering you a very easy way to get me to reconsider my vote on you. All you need to do is explain your votes.

[Kairal]

Yes I agree. Thus why I'm voting for massive. It just feels... I dunno, too easy I guess. Still it is easy to overthink things. In this case anti-town behaviour is probably just motivated by him being scum.

[Kairal]

That was @Jin bu it doubles for Mini's post too.

[Kairal]

Alright I've given him more then enough chances. I'm not quite ready to end the day yet. I'd like to hear a bit more from Newman, IamI and Shadowstep. Likewise I'd like to hear Io's explanation for this argument of mine she's sheeping, the argument I never made. However barring some pretty major scumtells from someone I think my vote will remain on massive for today. He's extremely likely scum and I'm no longer seriously entertaining the possibility that he's town.

[Kairal]

Cloud scum flip will make me very interested in AJ.

I'd say we just go ahead and get interested in AJ without worrying about a flip.

Massive, I would like your read on cloudkicker. I see your 94 as not reading them as town, yet your 95 votes for someone else for *reasons*

And my vote is staying on you.

I'm leaning towards town. I haven't seen any indication that his townslip isn't genuine (and I do think it's a townslip), and after thinking about it, Kairal's townslip along the same lines probably makes them both town. I don't think either of them make good lynches today. (Or lunches, if that's a thing.)

How do associative tells not work? Like I know I've been gone for 8 months but how does the community just disregard an entire part of scumhunting? (Asking because this is something I've heard multiple times in like 2 days). They absolutely do work, Grey's just grasping at shit and hoping something sticks.

There are no associative tells between town and anybody, so trying to use them as a method of scumhunting without, you know, having a scum to tie them to really isn't a thing.

If you legitimately believe Cloudkicker is scum as you say, why would you be actively against people sheeping you? You do this more than just here.

Because last game people sheeped me and I was voting town 50% of the time. We're a majority for a reason, everyone should be contributing to the discussion, not blindly following the village elder.

A -- if you were only voting town half the time, you're actually doing better than would be expected (since town is 75% of the game) so again, why would you not want people sheeping you? And B -- honey, if you think people are going to follow the village elder, maybe you better check my join date.

Oops forgot my random not-actually-random vote!

And just like that, massive starts slowly oozing down towards the scumpile.

Very interested what it is about my vote that makes me scum. And no, 157 isn't even remotely close. And no, trying to push the town based on 157 with no additional reasons is practically bullshit.

His questions felt pointless, and that vote on Kairal was super bad.

That's fair, 99 is pretty bad as well like you always see scum trying to push people while simultaneously impressing how they should be reading someone else.

Can you quote 99 and, specifically, what is exemplary of your point above?

---

VOTE: AJ

Hmm I see. Well I apologize for annoying you enough to do so, on the off chance you're being genuine. You will be unsurprised to learn that it doesn't help me town read you though.

[Kairal]

Oh wow. I quoted those because I was going through his ISO to make a big post on his unexplained votes... apparently I forgot to get rid of them when I decided it was so obvious I didn't need to bother.

[Kairal]

I've said everything I have to say about massive for now.

Mini what do you think about Flubber? I think he hasn't contributed much so far, and that post attacking Jin was weird. Seems like he's in your top scum read. Did you see something I didn't?

[Kairal]

Scum Meter
Kairal
Elhabe21
Cloudkicker
-Grey-
culted
HellloooNewman
I Am Innocent
Secret Agent Jin
Aj The Epic
massive
Flubbernugget
Io

town

|

~town

|

null

|

~scum

|

scum

Hmm...? Either flubbernaught is your number 2 scumread or if I'm reading it backwards I'm your number 1 scum read?

Hope you're feeling better soon. Get lots of rest!

[Kairal]

Unfortunately I don't think a massive flip will tell us about flubber specifically. Flubber's vote early is not hard enough to be clear evidence he's town but also not quite soft enough to be sure he's scum. It really could go either way.
That said I don't think he's particularly scummy at the moment. Right now massive,io, shadow, Newman and IamI all take priority for me. Massive, Io and Shadow are quite scummy whilst I have far less of a handle on Newman and IamI then I'd like.

Ideally I'd like to go into day 2 having some idea where everyone stands on the person being lynched.

In other words if you haven't provided a read on massive I'd really like to see one before we proceed to lynching him.

[Kairal]

Hmm actually I disagree (with my own post). Thinking about it more Flubber had a lot of chances to move that RVS vote. If massive is mafia I would be more inclined to read Flubber as town. Not conclusively or anything but it'd buy him a townlean at least.

[Kairal]

Thus town lean and not town conf :p

[Kairal]

Besides Bork's ruthless bussing actually lost her the game. If Flubber was doing the same thing a) He'd be going at massive a lot harder and b) he'd lead us to more scum tomorrow. That game is actually a very clear demonstration to me that scum cannot win by playing like town the whole game. At some point they need to actually be doing things in the day phase that favour scum (i.e directing suspicion towards town and away from scum). Otherwise they run the risk of being found mechanically.

[Kairal]

The reason why I'm iffy on it is because Flub could have quoted a number of other posts as evidence for his scumhunting, but he was specifically anchored on that *one* post and brought it up several times. It kind of looks like he wants bussing to pay off, if he's indeed bussing.

It's possible. In another town I'd probably be very worried about it. However I have literally 3 people who are scummier and 2 who are totally inactive. That puts flubber way down at number 6 personally and therefore I just can't see my way towards lynching or voting him day 1. We'll see how he looks by the end of Day 2 I guess

[Kairal]

Kids are watching this Mini! We can't have those kind of flubs. *Turns to Camera* Anyone who gets the highest votes is just going home kids, so you don't you worry!

[Kairal]

Anyway seems like we're generally in agreement then. Oh except you seem pretty sure that Cloud/Shadow is town. I am definitely not :p

[Kairal]

Sigh. Getting impatient now. Lets just lynch massive already. I felt like discussing the possibility that Jin is scum but again came to 'maybe but too many others in line to make much of it'. Until we start clearing the air with some lynches I think there's not much to discuss.

But I also want to hear from my scum list/inactives. I'm torn. Well I suppose I can look on the bright side and say there are positives to either approach.

[Kairal]

Yeah I guess. It's so weird to me that we're 5 days into a game and IamI and Newman have less than 10 real posts between them. I get that other people actually have lives but I'll still never understand why people join a game they aren't actually interested in playing.

[Kairal]

Yeah I see what you're getting at there with AJ. Pretty sure he was arguing with Mini before you were though - he did use your mod confirm argument to turn a disagreement into a vote I think.

[Kairal]

And I'm getting close to being replaced for playing against my wincon too and just saying I'm going to blank-vote for as long as I am in the game just to drive Kairal nuts.

I mean personally this is the only post massive needed to make me sure he was scum. Basically he's either being deliberately unhelpful because he's scum or because he's a town who's just so frustrated with me. I don't buy it though. I've never played with him before so any anger he has comes purely from this thread and I really don't see anything I've done as being likely to provoke a game throw. Maybe from a new player but massive has apparently been playing for 13 years on this site. Maybe he just has a habit of gamethrowing over nothing but I suspect he'd be permabanned for it by now if that was the case. It's just a scum gambit.

[Kairal]

To be fair it was a mean trick! :p

[Kairal]

Can't argue with the results that's for sure

[Kairal]

Ok I should stop refreshing and actually do something. My current feelings are that the following are no bueno for a lynch today: Mini,Culted,Dier and Grey like before.
I'm moving AJ, Flubber and Jin here as well.
AJ answered his weird semantic thing and I've moved on for now at least.
Flubber has been voting massive for the whole day and my increased suspicion of massive is making me more inclined to give him a pass.
Jin's posts on massive are also pretty good.
That's 8 players I'm feeling good about for the moment.

For the rest:
Newman, IamI and Shadow still haven't put in an appearance since yesterday.
Io is still weird in what she responds to and what she doesn't. No idea what's going on there and the continued refusal to explain why she's sheeping an argument I didn't make is downright bizarre.
massive moved from a scum lean to a definite scum read. I explained why earlier.

Anyway that's me done for today... unless I get bored again.

[Kairal]

Lol.

Newman I want to direct your attention to this post. Do you know why Grey is laughing? It's because he started the whole Mini and Cloud modconfirmed scum thing as a way to lure scum out. You didn't read that part I guess? In fact just before I left the thread Grey and I were having a laugh about how he caught massive out with it.

Then right after that you come along quoting that same argument? It's not a great look

The reason it's a dumb argument is because scum absolutely can vote for their own partners and still be playing for their wincon. Last game I was in scum ruthlessly bussed their partner from page 2. Cloud could absolutely have been doing the same if he and Mini were scum.

I've also read plenty of games where scum manufactured what appears to be a personal disagreement to make town think there's no way they can be linked. If you think about it Cloud's play would actually be pretty good if he and Mini were scum. If either of them ever dies we definitely wouldn't suspect the other of being their partner. Even better Cloud created a perfect excuse to vote Mini all day every day and therefore avoid having to fake reads and votes on town.

Yes I know I said I was done for today. But I had dinner with my girlfriend's parents so I got bored and checked the thread again. It was alive and that got me excited! Dinner still sucked though

[Kairal]

Well I'd really prefer a massive lynch - I think his refusal to explain his votes and his threat to start gamethrowing is a lot more suspicious. The problem with having so many scummy townies is that our votes will spread out. Well we still have a lot of time to sort it out I guess.

[Kairal]

I mean things did get heated and go beyond the normal bounds of the game. That's why he was replaced. However if you agree that Cloud could have been genuinely voting Mini and not gamethrowing regardless of their roles, then you see there's no real reason to believe it's any particular configuration of alignments.

Anyway enough of that. The best way to determine your alignment is to see your views on every player. Obviously I'm mostly interested in seeing if you'll support my massive wagon but thoughts on everyone else as well would be ideal.

[Kairal]

Just kind of sat at my computer doign things for 30 minutes then suddenly realized I was forgetting something. So. Here I am.

A little new at this but
VOTE: CloudKicker
Cuz you're standing out more than others

I want to kill you just for that logic.

OK caught up.
Firstly wanted to address the 144 since I disagree with that entirely. I get the vibe from Cloud that they are trying to convince people they are town from the town slip, but Cloud's logic as to why it's a town slip is pretty shaky yes town slip quite a lot, but really thinking there is 9 players isn't much of a slip if anything it's just you didn't read. Kai also mentioned Town are usually in a panic under pressure but I think that's more a personal thing, I for one always try to remain calm even if it's frustrating being ignored.

VOTE: AJ

I'm going to have to agree with Kai after reading their accusation.
I don't really agree with the SAJ wagon in general after hosting a game with him, he mostly just feels like a fairly easy mislynch to push.

Lets not ignore that Io voted for Aj in post 166 based on my read in 298. Io is a TIME TRAVELLER and personally that's a bit more important than a game of mafia

[Kairal]

@ Culted I'm actually not sure I'd say I scumread Newman. I was frustrated earlier because his low post count made it impossible to read him town. When I said his recent vote on Mini was a bad look. I meant literally it looks bad. Right now I'm not sure either way on him.

Personally I have no idea how we're overlooking massive claiming he's gamethrowing over me. Io's time travelling is the only thing remotely as suspicious and these should be our two major wagons for today.

[Kairal]

Ok so you agree with me that time travelling makes no sense.. but you're voting Newman? With no explanation?

[Kairal]

I feel like a reasonable sheep should at least quote the argument you're sheeping.

[Kairal]

Like it's not even doing the bad play correctly :p

[Kairal]

LOL, yeah Mini, I'm terrified of you.

You guys are so caught up in the "mafiascum meta" that your posts all sound so robotic, and the same. Half the time, I have to double check the username, just to remind myself who's talking. I'm sorry that I post differently than you guys, and by extension seem scummy to you. Sorry, shouldn't say "scummy" because that apparently makes me look bad too.

I'm real simple. I call it as I see it. If y'all don't like that, or think that makes me scum, then vote me.

Oh man that's a low blow. You didn't like my time traveller joke? I thought it was pretty good

[Kairal]

Can we have an actual vote count rather than a post that says "VC"?

And can someone go back and re-read where i said I would blank-vote for the rest of the game to drive them nuts and NOT keep misrepping it as me saying I'm "throwing the game"? Because at no point in that do I say I'm not voting my top scumread and the "replaced for not playing to my wincon" is clearly a dig at the mod and nothing else.

The thought never even crossed my mind that it was a dig at the mod. That said I don't know how you characterize "I'm going to play anti-town to spite someone" as not being game throwing.

[Kairal]

And 'hungry/happy' is actually 'hellooo' for HelloNewman....

His post 79 is fine, calling CK out for congratulating himself on a townslip is all well and good. The only issue is HelloNewman never actually interacts with anyone outside of CK and tunnels a bit that he's scum long after most of us have him as town. I don't mind contradictory viewpoints, but with an unpopular view comes a burden of proof, and I don't think Newman attempts that at all in his post. His reasoning CK is scum doesn't change at all (propped himself up on a townslip) even though he challenges CK multiple times through different wordings for the same thing. As I've said, I feel CK's play there was anti-town (aka looking at himself instead of others) but still NAI. Newman should've been tasked at building a case to actually make something happen rather than just stating he didn't like CK. At that point in time, nothing was happening with CK as a wagon so he either needed to drop it and refocus or force a real reason behind it.

So that's what I've got on Newman for the 4 posts so far.

It's not sheeping if you're the first one to point it out. And I'm not going to beat a dead horse about why his posts coming back weren't good.

I'd forgotten about that. Fair enough.

[Kairal]

Can we have an actual vote count rather than a post that says "VC"?

And can someone go back and re-read where i said I would blank-vote for the rest of the game to drive them nuts and NOT keep misrepping it as me saying I'm "throwing the game"? Because at no point in that do I say I'm not voting my top scumread and the "replaced for not playing to my wincon" is clearly a dig at the mod and nothing else.

The thought never even crossed my mind that it was a dig at the mod. That said I don't know how you characterize "I'm going to play anti-town to spite someone" as not being game throwing.

I mean it isn't game throwing because you're a scum player playing to your win con. But if you were town it would be game throwing.

Anyway it seems like Newman managed to attract a lot of votes for you so I suppose you're safe for now.

[Kairal]

You know on second thought that might be a bit overaggressive. In any case, you need to re-assess me Kairal, and you need to let go of this "not explaining your vote is anti-town" stance because you're going to find a LOT of players who won't and who will further demand that you follow them based solely on their reputation. I'm voting who I think is scum. End of story.

Alright so I've mentioned before that I'm a new player. This is sort of a frustrating position because it means I'm likely to be wrong about a lot of stuff but can't necessarily trust people telling me I'm wrong (since they may be scum). That said I am still willing to consider any advice I get. So work with me here.

I think not explaining votes is anti town. I think this because scum are lying and town are telling the truth. The best way to catch liars is to force them to generate a lot of content, and the best way to read town is again to see a lot of their content. It is harder to sustain lies long term. Therefore every player should be explaining their votes, and giving reads. If we don't do so we contribute to an atmosphere that makes the game easier for scum.

There are other benefits to explaining votes and reads too. Like imagine you are town and get nightkilled tonight. You're now a confirmed town to the rest of us and we can pick through your Iso to get what we now know are definitely town based reads. Except we'd get almost nothing from reading yours. We'd know you genuinely suspect MDS and AJ. That's it. We wouldn't even really know why.

If I get nightkilled though town will have a very good feel for where I am and what I was thinking. Doesn't mean they'll agree with it but at least they have a confirmed townie viewpoint on every player in the game

If I'm wrong about any of this feel free to explain why.

Anyway I appreciate you engaging with me and since Io still hasn't in hundreds of posts I'll move the vote there. For now at least.

VOTE: Io

[Kairal]

@ Io. You've ignored my every attempt to question you until now and I suspect you will continue to do so, but hey doesn't cost anything to try. Why did you vote AJ based on a post I hadn't made? To me this suggests you don't really care about reasoning through your AJ vote- the obvious explanation is that you already know you want to lynch him because you are scum and he is town. Thus you screwed up by citing a post that didn't exist and have refused to explain it because you can't.

[Kairal]

Anyway I looked through IamI's Iso and it seems fine. Nothing scummy that I can see. I also quite like how he initially calls our Grey for being opportunistic and then decides he's clearly town. That was basically how my Grey read evolved too so it feels pretty legit. He goes into my 'will reassess tomorrow list'.

I'm gonna reiterate that I actually think Newman is town. If he's scum he could easily jump onto Aj, massive, Io or Jin all of whom have received a fair bit of suspicion throughout the game and presumably can't all be scum. (Note that both Io and massive who are my top scum reads have given the AJ wagon a spin) Instead he votes for Mini using explicitly discredited logic. She's clearly not very likely to be lynched today. She floats near the top in most people's town reads. Surely scum would ignore her for today and Nk her?

Why fall for the same trick massive already did? I dunno it doesn't seem all that likely to be scum play to me.

That leaves me with Io, massive and Shadow for my potential lynches today. I'd like to hear from Shadow before we proceed I guess

[Kairal]

Why fall for the same trick massive already did? I dunno it doesn't seem all that likely to be scum play to me.

He didn't. massive voted for adjacent reasoning. Newman piggybacked my trap logic.

This feels like a semantics debate waiting to happen. I'll sidestep it. The question I'm really getting at is: Was Newman's vote opportunistic? I don't think it was. By the time he voted Mini most of town had agreed that the mod confirmed mafia argument was a non-starter. If he were just voting for the easiest to lynch town why not jump on any of the other people I mentioned. There are too many for them all to be scumpartners so he passed over an easy mislynch on a town to argue for a fairly difficult lynch in Mini.

It just doesn't really make sense to choose the hard road rather than the easy road. More likely he just genuinely believed the mod confirm argument (even though I agree it's not a very compelling one).

[Kairal]

I'm not paranoid. I'm not piggybacking anything.

Y'all are silly.

If you are town please provide a really good argument for why we should lynch Mini or provide some reads on someone who might actually get lynched.

[Kairal]

I think it's perfectly reasonable for town to narrow down their lynch choices. It is true that Newman isn't giving any reads on anyone else. I can see how that could be so that when we lynch him it will be difficult to find his partners. That's why I keep asking him to talk about other people. This is why I'm getting closer towards being ok with lynching him. He's still a distant third for now. Who knows though? Another few days without any substantial interactions aside from Mini and Cloud might just be enough to change my mind.

[Kairal]

@ Io. You've ignored my every attempt to question you until now and I suspect you will continue to do so, but hey doesn't cost anything to try. Why did you vote AJ based on a post I hadn't made? To me this suggests you don't really care about reasoning through your AJ vote- the obvious explanation is that you already know you want to lynch him because you are scum and he is town. Thus you screwed up by citing a post that didn't exist and have refused to explain it because you can't.

Looking back at it I just said the wrong name actually. I went ahead and re-read the first 7 pages since that's what I was referring too (mostly page 5 and 6) and I said you're name when I had meant Grey. The post I had made in 166 was in response to to 116 and the previous few posts. I just never double checked who was talking and thought it was you so then the post I grabbed from your ISO about AJ was the first one I saw from you about AJ. But yeah I was meaning to have talked about Grey not you.

I also haven't ignored you, pretty sure I've answered everything you said, most of it asking me to explain the vote which is annoying since I did it I think 5 times now 6 albeit just not realizing I said the wrong name.

@IAI no, but I'm still not seeing a reason to move it to someone else, no one has been giving any reason to vote them or another person that I have seen.

Hmm. Hmm. I guess it is the obvious explanation. Is there a scum motivation to not explaining you meant grey instead of me until now? I can't really see one.

[Kairal]

On the other hand Io seems surprisingly sure that massive is town. Is this just my reads being way off again? Although they could easily be scum partners. It's better to start with the more suspicious of the pair I suppose. I think it's better to go back to massive for the moment.

VOTE: massive

[Kairal]

Well, you all can vote on any wagon you want as it seems there is a few (massive, Io, Newman) but i think there are too many thoughts and conversations and not enough cohesive togetherness or focusing on a player we all think is scum. The scum have done exactly what they set out to do and have caused confusion among the town.

This is also a plausible explanation for scum motivations maybe. At any rate I'm fine with any of the 3 really. Just deciding my order is difficult. I think Newman's continued tunneling is making him look more suspicious. Right now my order of preference is massive, Newman then Io.

[Kairal]

On the other hand Io seems surprisingly sure that massive is town. Is this just my reads being way off again? Although they could easily be scum partners. It's better to start with the more suspicious of the pair I suppose. I think it's better to go back to massive for the moment.

VOTE: massive

That makes no sense. If you think Io is scum, then vote him. Scum has plenty reason to townread a player regardless of their actual alignment.

Io being surprisingly sure that massive is town does not say anything about massive, only Io.

A) Io is a she :p. B) Of course it makes sense. I thought Io was scum because of the whole time travelling vote - she's now explained that she simply used my name when she meant yours. Is there any scum motivation to doing so? Or to leaving it so long to clear up? All it's done is bought her a ton of votes and suspicion. Without that I think she's not especially scummy.

However I do think her interactions with massive suggest a scum team. In this case massive is suspicious and her defense of him indicates they could be a team. Thus we lynch him first.

[Kairal]

And I'm getting close to being replaced for playing against my wincon too and just saying I'm going to blank-vote for as long as I am in the game just to drive Kairal nuts.

Actually since we're talking about massive can I get a second opinion (or more really) on this post? He insists that I'm reading something that isn't there. What do you the rest of you think?

[Kairal]

Yeah but my argument that Io is scum is now based entirely on the possibility she's defending massive. If he is town then I don't (currently) have any real reason to suspect she's scum.

[Kairal]

Hmm it doesn't feel right. I really don't want to give up this scumread on Io.

[Kairal]

Reading Iso. Again.

[Kairal]

Yes I agree. I'm saying that I am (somewhat reluctantly) not seeing her as scum right now. If massive flips scum then she looks suspicious. If he flips town she doesn't.

[Kairal]

If massive flips scum, she would be less suspicious, not more.

Scum have more motive to defend town than their buddies.

I just finished a game where scum played like you're suggesting. She succeeded in buying town cred but because she never tried to throw suspicion or defend her scum buddy she lost by process of elimination. Scum want to look town but at some point have to start playing towards a scum objective or else they too will find themselves losing from PoE. In this case massive is a possible but not certain lynch - exactly the time for scum buddies to come forward and try to shift the wagon elsewhere. That's why I think Io is a likely scum buddy for massive. That said obviously you vote the person you think is actually scum and then look for buddies later. Thus I'm voting massive and simply pointing out Io's interaction in case I don't make it to tomorrow.

[Kairal]

Starting the final's gauntlet so this is mostly a prodge.

If massive flips scum, she would be less suspicious, not more.

Scum have more motive to defend town than their buddies.

I just finished a game where scum played like you're suggesting. She succeeded in buying town cred but because she never tried to throw suspicion or defend her scum buddy she lost by process of elimination. Scum want to look town but at some point have to start playing towards a scum objective or else they too will find themselves losing from PoE. In this case massive is a possible but not certain lynch - exactly the time for scum buddies to come forward and try to shift the wagon elsewhere. That's why I think Io is a likely scum buddy for massive. That said obviously you vote the person you think is actually scum and then look for buddies later. Thus I'm voting massive and simply pointing out Io's interaction in case I don't make it to tomorrow.

Scum doesn't necessarily have to do something scummy, they just eventually will have to be wrong. But as this is expected, it IS possible to play a perfectly town game as scum, they'd just end up with a few mislynches here or there.

I'm not saying that it's impossible for scum to perfectly pretend to be town. I'm saying it's a losing strategy, and as such I expect scum will try to influence discussion away from their partners, try to fan suspicion against townies. If they never do so they run a risk of town getting too organized and losing badly.

In this case we currently have 3 quite likely lynches: Io, massive and Newman. It's unlikely they're all town and also unlikely they're all scum (at least to my mind). Therefore this is exactly the time when scum will try to subtly shift discussion towards some wagons and not others. Depending on the flip we get the conversation around this time could be extremely enlightening in hindsight.

[Kairal]

You know Mini I'm pretty sure 'bus' refers specifically to scum voting for other scum. If that was an actual scumslip and the scum team is you, Grey and massive I will be laughing for days. You do know that right? :p

[Kairal]

Oh Derp. It was a joke in response to Flubs saying you and Grey were massive's scum partners. I'll just go sit over here for a bit :p

[Kairal]

Hmm. Yeah he's definitely reminding me of the scum who got caught out day 1 last game. He hasn't contributed anything at all outside of a push on cloud and a push on Mini. I'm still not at all sure about massive but it makes sense to start with the most likely scum and right now I think that has to be Newman. Just too long without anything useful

VOTE: Newman

[Kairal]

This whole page was great. Gave me a good laugh

[Kairal]

I imagine that will 47 hours 59 minutes from his last post.

[Kairal]

I've been townreading Mini but if Newman flips scum massive might be onto something here. Worth considering at least.

[Kairal]

Yes I would also like to end the day already. I say give Newman till his next prod dodge and then move on. I'm guessing he won't bother making a claim anyway

[Kairal]

I don't believe it for a minute. However we can't take the chance. Well I preferred a massive lynch anyway

VOTE: massive

[Kairal]

Oh one more thing: If Newman is scum he might just be baiting out a cop counterclaim to help his scumbuddies out. I think it's probably best to wait a day or two before counterclaiming if we do have a cop. We can still lynch Newman then and you'll get a few investigations before scum nightkill you.

[Kairal]

masssive simply pointed out that Mini was defending Newman. It's a possible sign of a scum partner. If we lynched Newman and he flipped scum then sure I'd say we should check everyone who was defending Newman (incidentally this includes me).

Until we have some flips I'm more interested in looking for individual scum members and massive has been my top scum read for a while. The only real thing to be gleaned from massive's post is that he and Mini probably aren't scum partners. I think that's been clear for a while though.

[Kairal]

The 'she' in that post refers to Io. Obviously in any case where someone flips scum we check their interactions to see who was defending them.

[Kairal]

Newman I want either massive or Io investigated. The one we don't lynch. That said we don't want scum to simply follow your investigation targets so it's probably good to be ambiguous about it.

[Kairal]

massive and Io are both at L-3 by my count. I would advise everyone to cast their vote towards one of these two wagons since a Newman lynch is not really an option now.

[Kairal]

Newman what kind of cop are you? If he's scum telling us now makes it more difficult for him to lie later, and if he's town he's going to get nightkilled anyway.

[Kairal]

Maura's, It's interesting that "you don't believe for a minute" that I'm a cop, but you are all in on helping direct my actions.

When I decided we couldn't lynch you today that basically means I'm playing along with your lie. So for the next few days I'll be treating you like you're a real cop. It's always possible I'm wrong.

If you are a cop scum will kill you at night. If they don't we'll know you were telling the truth about what reads you gathered when we lynch you in a few days.

On the other hand if you are scum you've only bought yourself a few days and every interaction you have can be analyzed to see if it leads us to more scum.

It's a win for town either way as far as I'm concerned.

As far as Grey goes sadly we can't lynch town just for being mean :p

[Kairal]

This is a closed set up right? I'm quite confused right now. I will say I specifically said not to counter claim.

[Kairal]

We.. did reach a majority right? Gamma can you please kill Io already?

[Kairal]

Don't suppose you'd mind doing me a favour and revealing? Since Gamma should have done it already. At least that way I can start thinking about where to go on Day 2.

[Kairal]

Yep Mini pretty much sums up my feelings here. The obvious course would be to go for massive since he was the 3rd likely scum. However with two misses in a row I'm not feeling so sure.

[Kairal]

Incidentally this is a perfect example of why blank voting is anti-town. Now we have 3 players doing it. We have no idea why. There's nothing we can point to and say 'your reasoning here totally contradicts your other post'. If any of these three votes are from scum or scum motivated we have absolutely 0 tools to do anything about it.

It also provides absolutely no persuasive power. As Aj notes why would I follow Shadow in his IamI vote? No reason at all. Hell why do we even bother having a discussion board? We could all just submit votes through a poll without wasting time on this whole 'communication concept'.

[Kairal]

Screw it I blame massive for this.

VOTE: massive

[Kairal]

Yeah I guess I do have that tendency. Io was correct in reading Newman as town after all.

[Kairal]

Also I don't see why you would use my ISO to justify not lynching massive.

Although this quote suggests maybe we're on the right course anyway?

[Kairal]

Seems she mostly suspected Aj and Flubber with a bit of culted. Feeling lazy tonight. I'll go through their ISOs tomorrow and see what I find I guess.

[Kairal]

Yes I suppose I can ask why. Given that you know I'm going to do so why not just save us all time? Can everyone who blankvoted recently or in future please do not and instead explain your vote.

Alright I can come back to massive later. I was about to lynch Cloud yesterday when he got replaced out and Shadow has basically slipped under the radar. I read through Io's ISO and either I missed it or she never really made a push on IamI - why are Shadow and Mini suddenly pointing fingers there?

VOTE: Shadow

[Kairal]

Dierfire is probably my single top top read. All his posts make sense, feel like they add new content and he even explains who he's voting for this makes it easy to read him town. I'm not remotely inclined to lynch him for his predecessor.

Shadow what were you hoping to achieve with your reaction test? You just asked a few questions afterwards. Give us something we can work with. Reads, votes, reasons whatever.

Anyway We still have 2 days after this even if massive is town so on balance I think we should just lynch him to be sure.

[Kairal]

I'm saying I think you're scum and if I'm wrong it's not like an insta lose or anything.

[Kairal]

Alhough... it is weird that Jin thought that was a good plan. Nobody ever likes my plans.

[Kairal]

Aha I just refreshed the other mafia game I'm in to see someone say to me 'tbf that's a great plan'. I guess sometimes people do like my plans

[Kairal]

Anyway I guess we have like 10 days for this. No need for me to rush into a massive lynch. I'll unvote for now

UNVOTE: massive

[Kairal]

Poor Jin. Anyway I haven't been scum reading him really. On the other hand I guess I haven't been entirely town reading him.

Thinking about it though this has all been a bit too easy and a bit too fast. I still haven't seen a very strong case on him. I think there's scum on this wagon.

[Kairal]

Yes I just read IamI's ISO since the Dier stuff seems weird.
A possibility is that he sees a town bloc forming and wants to try and tear it apart.
I don't really get a scum vibe from his day 1 posts though. His two top scum reads were both town... but that's true of almost everyone.
Looking back both IamI and Flubber have a pretty long history of FoS on Jin. Doesn't mean they aren't scum but they aren't just opportunistically jumping on this wagon at least.

[Kairal]

massive was also voting him yesterday. As usual he doesn't really provide reasons just to annoy me. Again though it isn't just opportunism.

[Kairal]

culted likewise has been on Jin from very early. Grey's vote is the only one that looks opportunistic. However he's obviously town. In short everyone on this wagon is either confirmed town or has been pushing this for a while.

[Kairal]

Ok I'm gonna give you guys the benefit of the doubt and see if you are onto something. Reading through those ISO's has made me more suspicious of Jin anyway

VOTE: SecretAgentJin

[Kairal]

If he is scum I think Mini must be a partner. If he isn't then maybe Io was onto something with culted?

[Kairal]

Yeah lynching Jin was a mistake. Sorry guys. That said he was reasonably suspicious for quite a long time. He frequently had posts that scolded people for doing exactly what he was doing, (i.e. softly casting suspicion on people without voting on them, or talking about a very small number of people). I should have left it longer but I got impatient.

Guess I should slow down a bit. Anyway I'm still feeling pretty good about Mini, AJ and Dier. I think massive is too obvious. We went down that path with Newman and Io already.

I'd also like to hear more from Shadow. Culted and Flubber were the two main Jin pushers so I guess I'm a bit suspicious there too. Although I thought he was suspicious too so not sure how noteworthy it is.

[Kairal]

massive's last post is pretty convincing. I agree that scum would probably not want to vote for the same person in such quick succession. On the other hand the day did end somewhat faster than people were expecting. It's not impossible they were planning to move their votes a little later on.

I also agree that scum would probably believe Newman - they know he's not on their team at the least. Given that they were planning to kill him anyway did they have any real reason to try and throw doubt on his claim? I don't really see the scum motive personally.

I think the main thing I want right now is to see a bit more from Shadow.

[Kairal]

So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
I'l get caught up during the weekend.
Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?

I'd like to hear more from you. I don't really have any kind of read on you right now.

[Kairal]

I've been feeling a bit suspicious of Shadow too. However I am concerned that it's just because he's calling me out. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

[Kairal]

I've been giving Shadow a pass on his low content because Day 2 was pretty short. However I just checked and his first post on Day 1 was 8 days before we lynched Io. That's a pretty long time and he still hasn't 'caught up'. You really need to start contributing more Shadow.

[Kairal]

I don't have time to dig into this right now so I'm posting it to remind me to do it later. On Day 1 we basically have 3 lynch candidates. Newman, massive and Io. We know that two of those three were definitely town. In other words we either had 3 town up for the lynch or we had two town and one scum. If massive is scum then we should see a clear effort from the other scum players to shift focus from his wagon to one or both of the others. From a quick glance I'm not sure I saw anything that fit that pattern, but I'll take a closer look later. If there's no such activity then we can probably assume massive is town.

If it was three town then I'm guessing scum would probably have been ok with being relatively inactive and just watching. I initially thought Shadow might fit that but replacing out suggests he really was just uninvested in the game.

[Kairal]

Alright so I went back through Day 1 a bit. As massive has pointed out in VC 1.0 he's the leading candidate for a lynch. There's no real effort to shift the wagon away from him until Newman comes in and immediately draws suspicion to himself. This suggests to me that massive is town and scum had no need to play their hand day 1 because Io, massive and Newman were all town.

[Kairal]

We currently have 9 living players and very likely 3 scum. Removing myself for obvious reasons that leaves 3 scum in 8 people. I've already explained that I think massive is clear.

I've had pretty good town vibes from Dier so far. His posts seems consistently analytical and helpful.

That leaves me with 6 candidates. I'm not really sure about any of them.

[Kairal]

I think I agree generally that a scum team of culted and IamI would probably not both vote for Jin in sequential posts. This suggests to me that only one of them is scum. I also think IamI's push on Dier doesn't really help scum at all. He's too townread for that to go anywhere. Better to focus one's efforts on easier to mislynch targets I think.

I think I'm ok with IamI for town then.

[Kairal]

That leaves me with 3 in 5. Mini, Aj, Culted, Flubber and Shadow.

Sort of hard to narrow it down any further. Shadow as I've already said looked like someone who wasn't paying attention- his desire to get replaced seems to bear that out. Mini and Aj have both sort of given me a town vibe. It's nothing concrete though.

That leaves culted and flubber. I don't have any huge reason to think they're suspicious I suppose. They both spent a lot of day 1 casting suspicion on Jin. Flubber was pretty keen on a massive lynch but then so was I. Hmm I can't really narrow it down any further right now.

[Kairal]

That said if we screw it up today then tomorrow is probably Lylo. I think we should seriously consider a full claim. It's too easy for scum to lie about roles on Lylo.

[Kairal]

I get your frustration flubs. That said I've effectively lynched the nail that sticks out 3 times now and gotten no scum. I'm just not sure doing it a 4th time is gonna help.

I went from 1.07 through to when Newman enters the game and didn't see anyone trying to stop a massive lynch. Did scum really just sit around while their team mate was close to getting lynched hoping that Newman would show up and step into a noose for them? I doubt it. Remember that many people were also suspicious of Io. It would have been quite easy to suddenly decide massive was town and then move to Io. It didn't really happen and this suggests to me that all three wagons were town and scum had no need to show their hands.

[Kairal]

VOTE: Newman

I think 278 comes from scum a good amount of the time.
He's too fixated on the cloud push, I think it's fair to say that trying to hammer home your own townness can be scummy in some environments, but he's not really trying to wrangle with anyone in particular about it. Mostly looks like he's just trying to convince cloud that he's scum and not really anyone else.

Ya know, stay justified, stay unquestioned, out of the limelight.

Specifically the "someone tell me why they're town" is scummy at the end, doesn't feel like someone searching for answers but someone looking like they are.

Wait... what am I smoking? This came like 2 posts after 1.07. I must've have missed it the first time. Here's culted starting a Newman wagon. This is before Newman started tunneling Mini with the mod confirmed thing. And Aj also calls out Newman before this. Am I looking at a culted, massive and AJ team?

[Kairal]

I mean I don't entirely disagree with you I guess. Timing wise though this push comes when massive is the clear lynch frontrunner. From culted at least it very much looks like it could be a defense.

[Kairal]

For what it's worth I think you are the least scummy of the three. I'd prefer to start with culted and then see where that goes.

[Kairal]

Mini and flubber argument looks to be fueled by a playstyle disagreement and personality clash more than anything and they're both actually making okay points at the same time while not caring very much how their pushes come off to everyone else. Think this is Tvt.

@Io

I realize a lot of people called you out on this but was there anything in particular from kairal's post on aj you resonated with that made you develop a scumread there?

@Kairal

When did your scumread on newman develop specifically?

Io is climbing in my scumreads.

k

Probably a scum reaction.

MDS

: Specifically can you quote my "bad logic" that I've "doubled down on"?

Meh, I was kinda iffy on massive earlier from some stuff on cloud that looked like cogdis (like I still find it strange how you can discredit someone saying they townslipped in one post and then tell them people taking issue with the slip isn't a reason to townread them in the next.) Like, he brushed it off as a handslap which eh? Kinda bad but the thought process behind those posts made more sense when he explained his townread later on and I'm not gonna act like I've always kept my reads easily traceable regardless of alignment.

But THIS shit is typical scumflail and massive's been playing since 03 he should know that nothing productive is gonna come from arguments like this.

My concern is not for whether you and CK are the same alignment, MDS, nor for whether the mod was correct in replacing CK for his actions. My concern is for the amount of time and effort you put into getting people to NOT LOOK AT IT, to ignore it, to claim it's NAI, and THAT is what makes me say "the lady doth protest too much." Which is, in all honesty, what "protest" MEANS. And how, of course, me "doubling down" has no actual link to factual in-thread posts. You tried. You failed.

I just don't see how MDS is still running this town.

Kinda torn though because these gut decently real.

Well its blatantly obvious to me who scum is, ill give you a hint, its flubber. He doesnt take much interest in the game until he feels he can strike at an opportune time and argue his way into getting a player lynched. He also, like Massive, doesnt really explain much. He also is just pointing fingers at MDS and pushing the points she is making aside. Its sort of like when you argue with your parents and they say "That doesnt matter, listen to me, i am the parent" he is just deflecting what she says with minimal effort.

I'm sad that nobody wanted to vote this with me.

I was typing when he posted his last few posts that defend himself a little more, it all looks very suspect to me still but not vote warranting.

What about it was suspect?

scummyness

Scumpost.

@mod

An actual votecount instead of just saying "VC" would be great. : )

Rather a newman lynch > massive at the moment. With massive he's got a track record of bonking heads with mds so the benefit of the doubt that he's just tunneled and omgusing is there and despite how bad the push is as a whole I can kinda see the where he's coming from on the 'protest too much' stuff if I squint.

And on the other hand, like grey said, newmans mds vote is just pure opportunism.

My other preferences are jin and io; more enthusiastic about jin. Also kinda don't think these two are scum together.

Wouldn't end the day without content from IAMI.

In these posts Culted calls out massive but immediately backtracks. Also there are a lot of bad reads going around but here we see that Culted wants to lynch Io, Jin and Newman. All now confirmed to be town. Actually a large amount of Culted's Iso is tunneling on Jin.

[Kairal]

They could be I suppose. I haven't been reading Mini as scum. Day 1 at least she was pretty active and her reads felt genuine to me. They also lined up with mine quite a lot. Of course now that we know most of the top scum reads Day 1 were town that counts for less than it did. She's also been a lot less active- however she's also been on holiday so that's fair enough.

I actually considered suggesting to Shadow that he should replace out if he's town because he seemed so uninterested in the game. The fact that he did so on his own suggests to me that he's not a low lying scum player.

I'm not really sure what to make of the Mini Cloud argument day 1. I'm tempted to say that scum wouldn't let an argument get that bad but I have actually seen a game where two scum got into such a heated argument that one of them volountarily replaced out so in the end I'm inclined to say it's NAI.

Overall I've got a weak town lean on Mini and I'm waiting on Shadow's replacement before I make any new judgements there. I don't think it's impossible they're a scum team but I'm looking at other people first.

[Kairal]

Anyway what are your thoughts on culted and flubber? Those are the two that seem best for today's lynch to me

[Kairal]

I don't know that I've talked about Flubber properly today actually.

Firstly I think massive's argument is absolute poop. It comes from an alternate dimension where massive's day 1 play was clearly town and maybe in that dimension it works as an argument. In this dimensions where he was extremely scummy all of day 1 it's total rubbish. Maybe the reason he got to 5 votes is because scum were pushing it... or maybe it's because he was super suspicious.

That said Flubber is pretty suspicious in general. When I was scum last game I fixated on a scum read the whole time and Flubber's certainty that we should lynch massive sort of feels similar. He also spent a good deal of Day 1 throwing suspicion on Jin like Culted.

[Kairal]

Ok I changed position a lot over this last page or so. I think if massive is scum culted must be his partner. However I can also see the possibility on a flubber, culted scum team. I feel like they were the two key instruments of the Jin lynch (and yeah I'm mad I fell for it) and yet vary rarely spoke to each other about it, despite both harping on Jin for much of Day 1.

The common element here is culted so he's my vote.

VOTE: culted

[Kairal]

Also we're after the halfway point. People need to start getting their wagons in gear if we're gonna get a lynch in time.

[Kairal]

Looks like this game is alive again!

It seems pretty logical that with an odd night cop there'd be an even night cop to me. Surely it would be too risky for scum to claim it. Therefore I think we can take massive at face value.

That makes things a good deal simpler. We're now down to 3 scum in 6 players since massive and BV are confirmed town. I'm gonna go with my gut and say that Dier, Aj and IamI are all town.

That leaves a scum team of culted, Naomi and Flubber.

Since culted can't be on a scum team with massive that makes him less suspicious. Therefore my vote goes to flubber

VOTE: Flubber

[Kairal]

Also I understand it's a lot to read up on so mistakes will be made but Naomi's last post calls a claimed cop and their innocent both suspicious. She also reads Dier (largely town read I feel) as suspicious. She's also wrong about me.

That's a whole lotta wrong in one post.

[Kairal]

VOTE: Kairal

I'm unlikely to make it through N4 so here it is: I'm the even cop. Checked MDS last night, she's town. I really figured someone would have picked up on that and not made me spell it out - I thought it was AJ early on, but then it was clear he hadn't from 1954.

I've been run up so many times on Day 1 that I know what that wagon composition is. It's too easy for scum to push on something NAI (usually it's my postcount, but this time it was "explaining my vote") that they look at me as an easy mislynch. I just happen to be a little more sturdy than a D1 mislynch ... most of the time. But yeah, I was purposefully needling Kairal to see how deep he'd bite, plus also trying to survive to now to get my likely only investigation through. And personally I think he's bit a little too deep.

IAI I trust you to some extent, so do you want to talk about this towntell you saw? I saw something D1 but now I want to go back and look and see how legit it really was.

Surprise Surprise you purposely needle people you will succeed in annoying them. I would avoid such a strategy in future since all you've succeeded in doing is wasting both of our time. In the worst case you may actually get me lynched.

[Kairal]

I get that as a cop you don't want to appear too town so you don't get nightkilled but damn man you didn't have to be so incredibly suspicious.

[Kairal]

Like we very nearly lynched you Day 1. See how well exactly what you're doing worked for Newman? It's bad play pure and simple

[Kairal]

The more I think about it the more annoyed I get. We had 2 cops and you both tried your hardest to get lynched Day 1.

[Kairal]

But you didn't think it was NAI. You thought it was scummy and deliberately did it to needle me. You already admitted that. Whatever. I'll drop it for now.

We should do a full claim. It might be too late tomorrow. I'm VT

[Kairal]

If you always read everyone who throws a tantrum as town you simply give scum incentive to fake tantrums. I have seen a game as I said where scum had a huge argument and replaced out over it.

[Kairal]

It is interesting. There are a number of things that make me quite suspicious of you. For example you imply that you are reading from the start- so why do you ask Mini a question as if she's still in the game and then remove your Fos from her replacement, well before she replaces out (if you were actually still only on page 10). Seems rather inconsistent no?

I also find your confidence that you can make reads based on 10 pages of a 47 page game rather... odd.

Then there's your description of Cloud making a 'fake' slip.

Likewise if you're reading from the start why are you claiming VT already? Why do you need to post the VT role pm?

This all seems pretty weird to me and it's not like I was confident about either of your previous slots. As far as cloudkicker goes I used kid gloves because it was clear he was genuinely upset. I was trying to calm him down at that point- in no way did it mean I was getting a strong town read from him.

However your main scum read is on Flubber which is where I landed pretty recently. This is making me doubt my Flubber read somewhat. That means scum would be... culted Naomi and... one of my town reads.

Really not sure here. Maybe she's just reading the room and thinking it's time to bus Flubber? Or maybe she's planning to have an 'evolution' and move around to voting me instead?

I think I'll give Naomi a little more rope and continue voting Flubber for now

[Kairal]

This is actually my first game encountering an odd or even night cop. Is it weird to have both? It seems logical to me. I mean sure scum have to kill twice as many but each cop is only half as useful so it seems reasonable?

Aside from that why would massive claim it now? There's no way we have two so a counterclaim would definitely get him killed. We should still have today and tomorrow left at a minimum. Also while he's been scumread a lot throughout the game he wasn't getting a lot of pressure today really... it's not like it was a last ditch effort to save himself or anything.

I guess I don't really see the benefit for scum.

Since you're confirmed town I'd like to hear a bit more about why you think Flubber is a lock town. There's been quite a bit of suspicion on him including from your own slot.

[Kairal]

I mean I guess for massive to claim it he has to A) be sure that there's actually no even cop. B) Be sure that we'll believe it, because it's pretty risky. Frankly scum are running rings around us at the moment. Why bother with a high risk gambit?

In order for him to claim it I think there would have to be something scum know that we don't that definitely proves there's no even cop. I can't think of such a role off the top of my head but again I have no experience with odd/even cops.

[Kairal]

Oh actually I did just think of one. If scum have a ninja for instance then they'd know we have a tracker or watcher or what have you. They could reasonably deduce from that there's no way for us to have 2 cops. But then surely the tracker would claim and it would be obvious someone was lying. Still very risky.

[Kairal]

Well I've been in favour of a full claim for a while because tomorrow might be lylo. Obviously that would entail you claiming.

[Kairal]

Man why would I even want to walk back my scum read of you? You're unpleasant to play with. If I were scum and I thought you were actually cop I'd want you dead. If I were actually scum and I thought you were just gambiting I'd still want you dead because you're scum reading me. Regardless of either of our alignments I want you dead because you're a pain. Unfortunately for me it makes no sense for your claim to be a lie so I have to conclude we're on the same team. This conclusion is not something I'm happy about.

[Kairal]

Maybe I was being unclear? I considered several reasons why you might be scum and discarded them all. To clarify I believe your claim and believe you're town. Obviously I'm going to adjust my reads when we get a cop claim (with no counter) that doesn't make sense for a scum team.

[Kairal]

4 days till the deadline.

[Kairal]

I think I'd prefer culted or flubber but Naomi works too.

[Kairal]

I believe the VC is currently:

Naomi: AJ, culted
massive: Flubber
Kairal: massive
Flubber: Kairal

Leaving Dier, Naomi, Black Void and IamI not voting.

5 to lynch

[Kairal]

Okay guys I'm getting to the point that I don't feel my reads are going to change very much. May I have the cop results and who the cop was and what nights.

Newman was odd cop, died night one. massive has claimed even cop, checked Black void night 2 (town result).

[Kairal]

Oh also Grey was Jailkeeper. Died night 2, didn't leave any obvious hints who he jailed.

[Kairal]

Even without massive's claim I was pretty sure he and Flubber couldn't be a team. Remember that in Day 1 there's a fairly lengthy period where massive is the frontrunner votewise. Flubber stayed on him like glue all of day 1. I don't believe a scum teammate would be very likely to do so. Not saying it's impossible because I did see a scum player do that recently. It's pretty risky play though. He could have tried to push the wagon to Io or Newman but never did. That is a pretty hardcore bus if it is one.

[Kairal]

Naomi's pushing Flubber hard. By PoE they're probably both scum. The question is whether this is a plausible bus?

My read of the room is that today's lynch is probably not gonna be anyone other than Naomi, culted or Flubber. The only other push really is massive on me. If I'm right that Naomi, culted and flubber are all scum then surely they'd push for me instead? I mean Naomi has left room to move to a lynch on me so I guess she could later.

The more likely explanation is that one of Flubber and Naomi aren't scum. culted is currently voting Naomi (and was doing so before she replaced out).

Yeah I think it's more likely that Flubber and culted are scum and Naomi is town. The third would have to be Aj, Dier or IamI.

I think it's unlikely to be IamI given the way those Jin votes came out. So it's Dier or Aj and I'm guessing AJ- he's also voting for Naomi which lines up with my scum team theory...

Well anyway these associatives are dumb. The point here is that most scum teams I can think of include culted and flubber but, tentatively, I'm not sure Naomi fits with them.

[Kairal]

Even without massive's claim I was pretty sure he and Flubber couldn't be a team. Remember that in Day 1 there's a fairly lengthy period where massive is the frontrunner votewise. Flubber stayed on him like glue all of day 1. I don't believe a scum teammate would be very likely to do so. Not saying it's impossible because I did see a scum player do that recently. It's pretty risky play though. He could have tried to push the wagon to Io or Newman but never did. That is a pretty hardcore bus if it is one.

yeah but despite being on them They didn't really push there was a total of one thing he brought up and other than that it was just sorta left to sit. I also read that interaction between massive and flubber as distancing more than anything and given there reads have been in alignment from my iso so far why would you find the person agreeing with you suspicious? especially if there not doing it loudly giving there own little flawed small reasons for it.

Hmm I see what you're saying that they both spent a lot of time on Mini. It's definitely silly that Flubber tried to propose a scum team of Mini and massive. They spent a long time going at each other. I guess the advantage of massive's approach is that he makes a lot of enemies- hard to see him on a scum team with quite a few players.

Anyway massive is cop so it's not possible for them to be a team.

[Kairal]

Oh also I see what you mean about solidifying reads early Naomi (I have a tendency to do the same) but it does have downsides. I was pretty sure culted was town day 1 too but I don't feel he's added much since then- just busy? maybe. Maybe he's posting less because scum are ahead and he doesn't feel as much of a need to get involved.

I'm glad you don't intend to push me. In all fairness to the people who are I suppose I should say the main scum read on me seems to be from my Jin hammer- which I acknowledge was a mistake. At any rate I think you asked why I Scum read culted and I think I forgot to answer. It's mostly PoE but on top of that he and Flubber both pushed Jin a lot Day 1 but almost never interacted. My scum partner and I did a similar thing in my last game- try to introduce suspicion on someone a few days apart and hope nobody notices the link.

[Kairal]

Yeah I get what you're saying about the cop claim. However 1) the roleclaim came quite late in the day. Like 8 days or more iirc. 2) massive had one vote on him at the time 3) he's an even night cop so he doesn't get to deliver any verdicts tomorrow.

This means that he can't use the claim to influence lylo if it is tomorrow, he wasn't removing an heat from himself and he didn't do it early. Moreover IamI suggests very early in the day that there's probably an even cop and specifically says he thinks they should wait till near the end of the day to reveal. This means that if scum massive was using it as a claim he couldn't be sure that a real even cop wasn't just waiting a little longer before revealing. Also the one verdict he did provide is a town read on someone who was in no danger of being lynched today either.

Basically it's a gambit that provides little advantage, and has a huge risk. It just doesn't make sense for scum.

[Kairal]

@Gamma: I'm pretty impatient but it's clear we need more time. I'm voting in favour of an extension

[Kairal]

Hmm I'm not saying voting Naomi is scummy. As you say I was pretty close to doing it myself. I'm saying that I don't think scum are going to be bussing at this stage, so I don't feel like culted would vote for Naomi and Naomi would be casting so much suspicion on Flubber if they were a team. I'm simply pointing out that your vote is not incompatible with being on a scum team. I'm not (looking at you individually) scum reading you. I have absolutely no intention of voting for you today or even tomorrow really. If culted and Flubber turn up scum that's where I'd be thinking about it.

[Kairal]

I haven't replaced into a game but out of curiosity if you replaced into CK's spot and he was town... what would you say about his play?

[Kairal]

Well as I say I was just curious... I didn't specify but it was actually directed at AJ. He doesn't like the way you've discussed CK- I'm curious to see what he'd say in that situation.

[Kairal]

Hmm I see. I think you have a pretty good argument about her selective re-read. I think she intends her reading to be a clear sign of town. However it seems to me it would be very easy to simply read scum chat to know what her allies are planning and use that to inform her reread.

I'm not really townreading her... I just think she's probably not on a team with culted and flubber. I'm not really sure who her team mates would be. It would have to be two people I'm townreading: Aj, Dier and IamI. Not impossible but it seems less likely.

[Kairal]

Anyway thanks for the reply. Something to think about when I replace into a game which is bound to happen at some stage.

[Kairal]

culted likewise has been on Jin from very early. Grey's vote is the only one that looks opportunistic. However he's obviously town. In short everyone on this wagon is either confirmed town or has been pushing this for a while.

Okay so wait.
Who was confirmed town on the wagon?
What does people pushing jin for a while have to do with jin's alignment?

Just to be clear these are the questions I didn't answer which I'm definitely scum for not bothering with? I didn't bother with them because they seemed so pointless. By confirmed town I was obviously referring to Grey. I'm not even sure what you're getting at with the second question. Obviously Jin's alignment is very important for determining the alignment of people pushing to kill him- since he's town they might be scum.

At any rate these recent posts by culted: A) attempt to mislynch me which I predicted scum trying to do, B) attempts to cast doubt on massive's cop claim- not definitely a scum action but helpful for scum to push, C) continues to defend Flubber, only making me more certain you're a scum team D) attempts to move some heat onto Naomi, which fits into my theory that she's not your scum buddy.

In short these posts present a few reasons why you might be scum and don't deviate in the slightest from how I'd expect you to play as scum.

[Kairal]

In these posts Culted calls out massive but immediately backtracks. Also there are a lot of bad reads going around but here we see that Culted wants to lynch Io, Jin and Newman. All now confirmed to be town. Actually a large amount of Culted's Iso is tunneling on Jin.

Like.

Was there anything about my thought processes on massive that you took issue with?
Can you talk about why I wasn't justified in having those reads?

This just feels like scum bravado to me especially the line "all now confirmed to be town" is laying it on thick. feels less like someone trying to empathize and more like trying make this sound better than it actually is.

Well I'm no longer scum reading massive so it's not really relevant anymore. My argument was that your timing was consistent with the timing a scum partner would have if they were trying to protect massive. And no I'm not trying to empathize. I'm trying to find scum.

[Kairal]

To that end culted repeatedly fits the pattern of someone with the appropriate timing for scum. His activity is good in the beginning- once it becomes clear that scum are winning handily his activity drops. His reads line up with Flubber (on Jin specifically) but he frequently tries to avoid mentioning him. When he does he's always convinced he's town, a read which I'm not sure anyone else in town has. Right after I say I'm not sure culted is scum because the best path for scum right now is to try and lynch me, he jumps into the thread with a crappy scum read on me. He continues to try and throw doubt on a cop claim with no counter. Incidentally if IamI was trying to set up a massive claim why does he specifically tell the cop not to reveal soon? Surely that's the exact opposite of what he and massive would need?

None of this is a smoking gun but it all adds up.

Incidentally Flubber has a post in caps where he makes it clear the word he used was pathetic, not apathetic. I'm not quite sure why you two are both misreading that.

[Kairal]

Uh... lol. I guess I shoulda doublechecked his posts before submitting that one. In my defense he does have a post where he emphatically insists he meant pathetic... but then he has the one you quoted where he bolds apathetic. I don't even know what that's about then. Anyway my bad

[Kairal]

Anyway I'm currently voting for Flubber but I'm pretty sure he and Culted are a scum team. I don't care which we lynch first.

[Kairal]

Well I'm no longer scum reading massive so it's not really relevant anymore.

It is relevant because you're taking issue with my thought process. I'd like you to explain why.

I already did but ok. I had no problem with your argument- however you made an argument shifting the focus from massive to Newman. This is exactly what a scum team might try when one of their members was the front runner for a lynch. As I say though massive's claim checks out, he's not scum, so you can't be his scum partner so there's no use discussing it.

[Kairal]

1) How do we know they don't have an RB? Without any flips we have no way of knowing what scum do or don't have.

2) How is this beneficial to scum massive? He'd obviously prefer to produce a 'guilty' result on lylo to get a win.

3) If he waited past today it'd be lylo and it would become hard to believe. Scum could counterclaim and make it a 50/50 (and generally I'd say people will lynch the original claimaint rather than the counter)

But really why risk dying (given that he can't be sure we don't actually have an even cop) for the benefit of... clearing two people who weren't likely to be lynched today anyway. As you note there was no pressure.

[Kairal]

The substance of your 1) argument seems to be that it would be too townsided if massive were a cop. A Jailkeeper, and odd/even cops doesn't seem that strong to me. For comparison a recently finished Mini game had a jailkeeper, tracker, one shot bulletproof and a neighborizor. Scum had a one shot tracker and a one shot ninja to counter.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714

Maybe I'm just underestimating the value of our roles or something but it seems like it would be balanced fine if mafia had a tracker or something to help them find the JK. Or maybe a strongman to shoot through it if the JK is protecting claimed cops.

[Kairal]

Sorry can you quote the post where I say that? I'm not quite sure what you're referring to. massive cleared BV not Naomi.

[Kairal]

Ok this is getting ridiculous.

AJ do you agree that in order for massive to claim this he has to know he won't be countered? If so how can be sure that there actually isn't an even cop but that we will believe there is one? If he can't be sure why is he pulling a high risk gambit?

Provide a satisfactory answer for these questions and I'm perfectly happy to entertain the idea that massive is scum. However the more you string this suspicioun out without good answers the scummier it looks.

[Kairal]

@IamI : Right now there are 9 people alive so we need 5 to lynch. Assuming 3 scum and no bussing that means our only chance of getting a scum lynch is for 5/6 town to agree on someone. Right now massive is tunneling on me which means we need every remaining vote to get scum. Please don't waste your vote on Dier since nobody else is scum reading him.

[Kairal]

I think the other thing that REALLY irritates me about the flubbs // massive thing is how flubbs had their vote on massive all of Day 1 (or at least upto where I am located) and had multiple oppertunities to push what they felt was there red read (if their green and massive is either alignment) but didn't. but also they didn't push there miss lynch, (if their red and massive is green) Which leads me to the odd conclusion that they know each others alignments.

Okay Let me make this a bit clearer by running threw all 4 situations

• [Green Flubs, Green Massive] Not knowing the alignment of massive and thinking there red, they would pick up and push things as they happen with the rest of Green

•[Green Flubs, Red Massive] Not knowing the alignment of massive and thinking there red, they would pick up and push things as they happen with the rest of Green

•[Red Flubs, Green Massive] Wanting a miss lynch they push whenever they think they can get away with it. pushing softly and edging them out.

•[Red Flubs, Red Massive] Voting them for distance but not really putting heart into lynching them as you want them alive.

The thing is that we never got a scum anywhere near a lynch Day 1. Scum don't need to push hard (and are gonna look bad on the flip if they do). I don't think Flubs play day 1 was inconsistent with your third scenario

[Kairal]

I mean I was trying to cut to what I feel is the heart of the argument. Does it seem to you like a massive lynch was inevitable? Certainly not today. If he were scum then he can push at least 2 of me, Naomi, culted and Flubber- that's enough to get over the line and all 4 have attracted some suspicion. He really doesn't need to pull a high risk gambit.

Also I mentioned before we don't know if scum have a roleblocker. Remember in Night 1 we have 1) a claimed cop, 2) a claimed Jk/BP. The obvious play here is to kill the cop and roleblock the JK. This stops him from keeping the cop alive. Now Grey never mentioned it but remember he was trying to pretend he might be BP and a BP wouldn't know about the roleblock.

Also your answer to 2) directly contradicts your reasoning for 3). massive had to reveal today because as you say nobody is going to believe a single investigation high scum read cop claim in lylo.

Ultimately what do you want to gain from this? Do you want to lynch massive today? because if you don't this is a waste of time we can't afford. We have very little time to reach a consensus even if we do get an extension.

[Kairal]

I still don't really agree with all of your reasoning. That said I am beginning to have some doubts about his claim and assuming you, me and massive are alive tomorrow I think it's worth pursuing further.

The important thing I think is that we agree we can't afford a massive lynch today. We need a scum flip. Hopefully at that point interactions will make this all a lot clearer.

Naomi is the third I'd want after culted and Flubber but at this point I'll take any lynch I can get.

[Kairal]

I'm ok with that and am in fact already voting it. AJ any chance I could persuade you to a flubber lynch?