Mini Normal 1839 - Game Over!
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OK so I read all 40 pages. Mostly all I got was buyer's remorse, but I do have a few clear(ish) thoughts:
- The day 1 lynch was piss-poor in my opinion. For all of the accusations flying around of players not basing their reads on demonstrably credible reasoning, the idea of lynching a lurker on Day 1 because "he appears to be active elsewhere on the site" is utterly ridiculous. I mean how is not playing the game any more scum than it is town? Would scum really be so obvious as to avoid play like that? Bad bad wagon. So I will have to analyze that wagon and how it went down a little more clearly on a second more focused read, because I think I might be able to get some good reads from that.
- I tend to look for subtle interactions more than obvious ones. Sure some people have put forth dumb theories or sometimes have not been entirely self-consistent in their reasoning, but that stuff is just as likely to happen for town as for scum. I don't find the argument that "X must be scum because I defeated X's position on Y" particularly compelling. Regarding subtle stuff, I find aronagrundy's posts and votes to repeatedly tingle my spidey-senses, I feel like there is alot of subtle maneuvering there. I'll provide more detail later in this post.
- ironstove is high on my list of interesting persons. I appreciate how he's tried to drive wagons repeatedly and all of them seemed well justified to me.
- I think Knighty Knight was lying about not having played before. His grasp of the game lingo was too strong for someone who hasn't played before. He was replaced by someone who has claimed a power role. I would tend to believe that Knightly Knight was trying to feign newbishness as a means of providing him some "space to work" with his PR, so that he could say and do seemingly dumb things that had a PR purpose, without being suspected of having a PR. For this reason, and others (mostly related to Fire Assassin's posts on the PR subject themselves), I believe that Fire Assassin is a confirmed town PR.
I have two strong town reads at the moment: Fire Assassin, and ironstove. I already explained why above.
I have one really strong scum read: aronagrundy. My reasoning here, is twofold: I generally don't like the tone of his posts, they feel a bit slimy, he feels like he is just trying to prod town along to making mislynches, more than actually scum hunting. And the quantity and timing, just seems carefully planned, he pops up just enough to guide or participate in bad wagons.
The second issue I have with aranogrundy is his voting record. It's really bad.
He spends most of post-RVS Day 1 voting Knighty Knight, whom I feel never really deserved a vote, and then jumps over to malpascp when it's clear that that wagon has momentum, happy to stay on that terrible wagon with the only two players he had previously voted for (Fire Assassin and PenguinPower). This feels very opportunistic to me.
VOTE: Aronagrundy- bji
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Here are some things I didn't like:In post 991, aronagrundy wrote:I can't really respond to much else you say specifically about me unless you want to give examples.
This vote was not explained well. The reasoning for a vote against Knight, previously given in post 247 does not seem significant enough to warrant this vote. Shows a preference for voting Knight (now FA, whom I have as confirmed town).In post 248, aronagrundy wrote:I don't have a problem with the pressure tracer is getting but I'd rather vote knight right now.
VOTE: knight
I think this is a reaching post looking for justification to put a vote back on Knight.In post 446, aronagrundy wrote: This post sticks out like a sore thumb to me compared to anything else I've seen before in the game. No real reason for voting karnos plus misrepresenting what lmk said.
Not interested in gathering any more info on the person who you previously spent most of the day voting for. Just not a consistent position.In post 717, aronagrundy wrote:investigate iron/lowell, protect nero, kill mal if he doesn't replace out
So if you know after the vote that a mal lynch would give town almost zero information, you must have known that before the lynch too. And yet you jumped on that wagon. Like I said, I have to analyze that wagon a little more to see who went on it and why, but the whole thing was pretty suspect to me, and you're square in the middle of it.In post 887, aronagrundy wrote:I'm aware but there were legitimate reasons for the mal wagon, he just happened to flip town. Scum would know that he was town, though, and would also know that a mal lynch would give the town almost zero information. I'll actually take back using the mal wagon as a reason against you because I think it was a good move for scum regardless of your alignment.- bji
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Yeah. That is a good point. It was hard to follow all of the back and forth on a read through, so many intertwined threads of interaction. It's been my experience in the past that I cannot find scum by following the main points of contention, because WIFOM, so I try to look at the more subtle interactions. Eventually I get something. But it's harder when I am not observing them in real time.In post 1021, aronagrundy wrote:
Just wanted to respond, that post was in response to FA asking what he should do n1. By then FA had already claimed so I thought he was town. And it's not like I can ask see to investigate themselves lolIn post 994, bji wrote:
Not interested in gathering any more info on the person who you previously spent most of the day voting for. Just not a consistent position.In post 717, aronagrundy wrote:investigate iron/lowell, protect nero, kill mal if he doesn't replace out
UNVOTE: aronagrundy- bji
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It's a bit hard to say in retrospect because my evaluations are already somewhat affected by the actual vote and the results and today's further posts. The only players I would have avoided voting for are ironstove and Knighty Knight/Fire Assassin. I would have favored voting for aronagrundy or one of the { karnos, Saru } duo. Looking back at my notes, which started out more detailed but as you can imagine got sparser as the read through wore on and I got tired, I didn't like the karnos/sanu exchange where they traded insults about some other game, and I seemed to dislike karnos' involvement more than disliking saru's, especially karnos' vote on saru. But that fight seemed "weird" enough to me to put them both under some suspicion.In post 998, Nero Cain wrote:bji, who should we have lynched d1 and why?
I'm not that experienced at this game but I am under absolutely no illusions that I'm going to figure much out on Day 1, so as long as interactions happen, and a vote is placed on a player who was meaningfully involved, I'm pretty OK with it. What I really don't like about that day 1 lynch was that it was against a player who was not meaningfully involved.
I still have to re-read that mislynch wagon a little more closely and see if anything stands out. My first read-through was linear and I didn't pay as close attention to the mislynch wagon because I didn't know that it was going to go all the way.- bji
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OK so karnos put FA at L-1 in post 608.
Nero Cain responds with a fake hammer vote in post 612. I somehow missed that on first read through. It's not that interesting though because it doesn't really do anything. He does a real vote for ironstove 621. Then post 626 is the place where he starts some FUD about Mal which begins that wagon.
If Nero Cain were scum, I don't know why he would lead a wagon away from town PR Fire Assassin, I'd only see him doing that if FA was his scum buddy, and I really don't believe that FA is scum. My only problem is that the logic of "and Mal posting everywhere but here is prob scum" is terrible, but then again, if Nero is town believing town!FA PR claim, then he's gotta be happy to lead a wagon just about anywhere in preference to seeing a FA lynch.
644 and the subsequent postings between ironstove and FA I read as ironstove trying to fake a hammer as a reaction test. I am under no illusion that ironstove actually believed that he was hammering FA. His post 652 makes it pretty clear that he was just reaction testing FA. This is one of the reasons that I have a strong townread on ironstove.
Around post 685 a wagon on Thor is starting to form. Nero Cain prefers to vote against Mal though. This is actually interesting. Post 689 Nero Cain says "so scum is voting Thor. Does this mean Saru is a scumbuddy or he's voting off the wagon to manipulate us onto the Saru wagon?". Who was voting Thor? Saru, FA, and ironstove. Saying "Does this mean Saru is a scumbuddy" means that Nero must have been referring to one or both of the other two as scum. If Nero thought that FA was scum presumably he'd be focused on hammering him instead of pushing a new wagon. That leaves ironstove. This is consistent with his earlier postings wrt ironstove. But why is Nero Cain pushing for a wagon on Mal if he believes that ironstove is scum?
FA is second on the mal wagon in post 695. The vote is not explained. I don't get it.
Thor is third on the mal wagon with 701, and his reasoning is sheeping. This looks bad to me. Sheeping didn't fit into any part of Thor's approach up to this point. I felt like he was being methodical and consistent previously and then all of a sudden is happy to be on a wagon that makes no sense? Highly suspect.
Nero Cain post 702 makes it very clear that ironstove was the scum he was referring to being on the Thor wagon.
703 to 707 ironstove bounces from lowell to Mal, becoming fourth on the Mal wagon. It seems like he does it in response to interaction with Nero Cain, who thinks iron is scum. Is ironstove joining the Mal wagon just to test Nero Cain's response to having his top scum read join his wagon? I can't see any other reason given by ironstove for the vote. Nero Cain doesn't really respond though and doesn't seem to care that his strongest scum read has joined his wagon. This is weird.
710 aronagrundy pops in and doesn't give much substance and happily joins the Mal wagon, putting Mal at L-3, despite having no good reason to. I didn't like this vote either which was one of my strikes against aronagrundy.
713 LmkGuy refuses to join the Mal wagon. 714 says he would like to see mal killed though, which is a more reasonable approach than the lynch.
karnos tries to inject reason into the debate in 738.
742 Nero Cain is now actively pushing for the Mal lynch for bad reasons. This is significant. In 743 he doesn't even suggest that taking any action against Mal in the event that the Mal lynch doesn't happen is worthwhile. Also significant.
GreyICE 746 also tries to inject some logic into this bad wagon.
ironstove post 752 unvotes Mal. Would be town cred, except later he gets back on the wagon anyway.
759 Thor replaces no reasoning for being on the Mal wagon with bad reasoning. Thor seems to me to be too experienced at this game to actively be preferring a bad lynch to his earlier lynch targets.
Following posts (I'm getting tired of typing post links, find the posts yourself) have karnos trying to get people off the Mal wagon using good reasoning. BUT THEN post 767 he totally does a 180 and votes him to L-2.
Soon thereafter ironstove does his own 180 and puts Mal on L-1. WTF is going on here?
Nero's post immediately after that claims that "Mal prob filps scum here. I tend to think that his buddies are in LMK, PP, and Stove." If Nero is scum he would have known that Mal is town, so he'd be weakening his own case against Ironstove by this post, suggesting he'd rather target LMK or PP for the next mislynch in day 2.
Thor comes on strong after that to push the Mal wagon. He's pushing what was a mislynch at L-1. I don't like this.
GreyICE hammers. We know GreyICE was town so I will trust that his reasoning really was policy lynch. I don't agree with that, but there it is.
OK so ... out of all of this, here are my conclusions:
- I don't know why Nero would prefer a Mal lynch over Ironstove, or why Nero moved his vote off of Ironstove and onto Mal. This is really bad.
- I don't know why Nero completely ignored the fact that his top scum read had joined his wagon on Mal
- LmkGuy, kamos, and GreyICE were the only players I saw really trying to put the brakes on the mad Mal wagon
- Thor looks opportunistic and bad in all of this
- ironstove confuses me, his overall contributions have been very towny to me but his presence on this wagon and the way it went down at the end are very troubling
So this analysis lets me further refine my reads.
Town: Fire Assassin
Lean Town: ironstove, LmkGuy, Kamos
Lean Scum: Nero Cain
Scum: Thor
VOTE: Thor- bji
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I liked what he did in post 60. I thought he was faking a claim that he would hammer to see how others would react. I can see him trying to apply pressure on players (post 73) for a similar reason. I feel like there is a scum hunting motivation in all of these reaction tests and bluffs and stuff.In post 1020, Thor665 wrote:In post 990, bji wrote:- ironstove is high on my list of interesting persons. I appreciate how he's tried to drive wagons repeatedly and all of them seemed well justified to me.
Could you pick any one of his wagons (he has plenty to choose from) and explain why you like the well justified logic of it?
117 and 118 feel like more of the same.
225 same.
236 tries to strengthen the weight of his bluffs.
It's just a feeling I get, this looks like a player who is trying to use voting to apply pressure. I would not expect scum to spend so much time moving votes around, I'd expect them to more opportunistically stick to one or two wagons.
Of course, I have been fooled in the past and will be fooled in the future. But my gut feeling on ironstove leans town because of all of this.
I just don't get why he voted Mal, the reasoning was thin and what was there was bad.
Care to offer any explanation ironstove?- bji
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It's not my definition of opportunism. I think of opportunism more as 'following wagons' than 'leading wagons', although sometimes it can include starting wagons. I think of opportunism as being more passive than active. All of these are fuzzy definitions of course. And ironstove just doesn't strike me as passive, and thus doesn't strike me as opportunistic.In post 1034, Thor665 wrote:Your definition of opportunism is not moving your vote much?
And your theory that he is faking his pushes is what shows 'justified logic' to you?
And me sheeping Nero is tantamount to a scum case.
Eeeeeh.
You should vote Karnos.
Please don't get hung up on my 'justified logic' phrase. It was part and parcel of a general observation that I found myself agreeing with ironstove's logic and apparent motivation, and also approving of the way he was going about it, more than disagreeing.
Your sheeping is just out of character with the rest of your postings. Do you deny that? Can you show me another post (in this game) where you decided to sheep a position for no obvious reason? As far as I can tell you spent most of the game steadfastly defending a Karnos vote from detractors, and attacking other people's positions against anyone except Karnos, and then suddenly you're sheeping a vote on mal for unexplained reasons (I'd quote posts but it's pretty much your entire ISO for Day 1). Please describe to me the chain of logic that gets you from point A to point B there.
Why should I vote Karnos? I have a town lean on him.- bji
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If I am consistently opportunistic you might rationally use it as supporting evidence against me. Won't happen though. I've already been nonpassive in analyzing the Day 1 lynch wagon and taking action based on my analysis.In post 1040, Thor665 wrote:
That's a bad definition.In post 1037, bji wrote:It's not my definition of opportunism. I think of opportunism more as 'following wagons' than 'leading wagons', although sometimes it can include starting wagons. I think of opportunism as being more passive than active. All of these are fuzzy definitions of course. And ironstove just doesn't strike me as passive, and thus doesn't strike me as opportunistic.
By that definition aren't you being opportunistic by voting me?
No, FA has taken fairly agressive action from time to time in this game. Please don't ask me to give you examples, they're in the game, and I'm tired of doing your homework.Isn't FA (a person you claim as town) being opportunistic on everything?
I must be misunderstanding the question. If town does the thing that I am saying seems towny, then doesn't that make my evaluation that the actions are towny correct? Because it's being done by town?If town does exactly what you're using as evidence that Iron isn't scum, isn't that kind of an empty logic ball you're holding up?
Not really. I prefer to try to deduce motives from what I can read from people's actions when they are not aware of my interest. Because they can posture for me any way they want to if they think I am looking for something; but if I'm looking when they don't know that I am doing so, then I feel that I will be less likely to be fooled by a charade meant to specifically fool me. I am satisfied with what I saw iron do earlier in the thread that I understand his motivations; I don't need him to tell me, and in fact I trust my own observations more than I would his answer to a direct question from me anyway. That being said, sometimes I will ask questions, when I don't feel that I can gather evidence elsewhere. Not necessary in this case though.
Your agreement of him is based on a presumption of what he's doing though, isn't it?In post 1037, bji wrote:Please don't get hung up on my 'justified logic' phrase. It was part and parcel of a general observation that I found myself agreeing with ironstove's logic and apparent motivation, and also approving of the way he was going about it, more than disagreeing.
Shouldn't you have at least asked him 'hey, what was your motivation with these votes?" first before town reading him? Y'know, to verify your presumption was correct?
I avoid all meta. I never read older games for anybody and will not do so even when asked to. It's just a personal position I take. It feels too much like homework to have to read other games, and I also prefer to play this game making my own discoveries in the game thread rather than being directed to cherrypicked "evidence" from other games. The ironic thing is ... you'll know this is how I play if you look at my meta (full disclosure - I may have looked at prior games once or twice in the past before I decided to hold myself to a strict no-meta policy, but certainly in the most recent three or four games, which would be half or more than half of the games I've ever played, I have refused to look at meta when asked).
Fascinating that you want to restrict it to this game only when making a value call about how I play the game. Why is that?In post 1037, bji wrote:Can you show me another post (in this game) where you decided to sheep a position for no obvious reason?
Agreeing with someone and following up with clarifying questions is hardly the same thing as sheeping a bad mislynch vote. Even suggesting that they're the same feels like desperation to find some justification for the bad vote. Yeah I'll keep my vote on you.And here's one;
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8431551
I agree (for no reason, as I don't justify the stance, am sheeping PP's opinion, and also am theoretically attacking the slot) that Karnos isn't over defensive.
So...your move?
Simple: 1. I never scum read Karnos, that's your interpretation of what I wrote. When I post that I don't like what people did, that doesn't mean that I am scum reading them, it means that I don't like what they did and will consider it in the overall body of evidence I use when analyzing that person. The fact that karnos was not mentioned as a scum read in any of the two explicit reads lists I have given (post 990 and 1032) is my proof that I never scum read him. Yes, I have had my doubts about him -- but I've had doubts about everybody! ... and 2. my more detailed analysis of the mislynch wagon gave me town vibes on karnos because he was one of the only ones to try to derail that wagon, and his actions read as sincere.
You've read the game, I tend to presume you've read my case.In post 1037, bji wrote:Why should I vote Karnos? I have a town lean on him.
Would you like to explain why my case is bad/why you have a town read on Karnos? You were scum reading him a few posts ago so I'm not sure where that really came from.
With regards to your case against him, I will look into it. But not right now. I have work to do.- bji
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My apologies, walling is an unfortunate speciality of mine.In post 1043, PenguinPower wrote:Ugh, wallposty guy. Let me introduce you toCode: Select all
[spoiler=][/spoiler]
How do you suggest I use that tag? On only my responses to quotes, or to break up all long posts into a series of separately expandable small posts?- bji
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Because I don't think you ever credibly established that Mal was scum, so I wouldn't characterize your actions that way.In post 1046, Nero Cain wrote:
Why should I have stopped voting one scum read just b/c a another hoped on?In post 1032, bji wrote:But why is Nero Cain pushing for a wagon on Mal if he believes that ironstove is scum?
Perhaps I used the term incorrectly. I only play this game a couple of times per year and I might be misremembering the definition of "policy lynch".
His vote was clearly not a policy lynch.In post 1032, bji wrote:I will trust that his reasoning really was policy lynch
I thought that hammering someone because they are breaking site rules, not because they are scum, falls under the heading of "policy lynch".
Like I assume that you are taking the italics out of context but he's clearly saying he was scum that was breaking site rules. This is not something he'd say as a PL.In post 777, GreyICE wrote:Oh holy shit though.
I looked at mal's recent posts. Whatever you can be town.This is fake VLA shit.
Vote: mal
Jesus. Don't claim, just die.Fucking fake VLAers.This doesn't just make you scum,it means you're garbage who abuses site rules meant to accommodate people IRL. Welcome to the hell of "I will expect you to post content at all times in all games I am a part of regardless of VLA status."
Misrep of who? A dead player already confirmed as town? What do I gain by that?
this is also your second misrep.- bji
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It is tiring arguing with you because you act like any evaluation that anyone
No - I'm saying that town does what you're saying Iron doesn't - which is why you're calling him town, even though town blatantly does the thing. Also, frankly, scum do what Iron is doing. Like, when your case is 'he's voting lots of peeps (but I presume fake doing so for pressure)" I don't think it takes much to look like that's an iffy case.In post 1042, bji wrote:I must be misunderstanding the question. If town does the thing that I am saying seems towny, then doesn't that make my evaluation that the actions are towny correct? Because it's being done by town?elsemakes has to have perfectly airtight justification, but you are free to sheep votesfor awful reasonsand we're all just supposed to accept that as great play.
You also tend to ask questions that feel like the whole purpose is to tire/wear the other player out. I have been observing this from you all game; find the question that takes the minimal effort for you to ask, but the maximal effort for anyone else to respond to. Seems like a strategy designed to exert your will by wearing opponents out.
Nothing about the strategy I described is about gut reaction. I described a metric for evaluating players that is based on looking at the evidence in situ instead of trying to gather evidence through questioning. What about that approach deserves being called making reads by gut reaction?
So...'gut'.In post 1042, bji wrote:Not really. I prefer to try to deduce motives from what I can read from people's actions when they are not aware of my interest. Because they can posture for me any way they want to if they think I am looking for something; but if I'm looking when they don't know that I am doing so, then I feel that I will be less likely to be fooled by a charade meant to specifically fool me. I am satisfied with what I saw iron do earlier in the thread that I understand his motivations; I don't need him to tell me, and in fact I trust my own observations more than I would his answer to a direct question from me anyway. That being said, sometimes I will ask questions, when I don't feel that I can gather evidence elsewhere. Not necessary in this case though.
Ooookay. I'll be ignoring you a lot, unless I decide to lynch you now.
Sorry it's just a personal policy of mine not to read external games. If you think that makes my play weaker, oh well. I come to this site to enjoy myself, and slogging through prior games to look for circumstantial evidence is not my idea of fun and I'm not going to do it. And if you point some cherrypicked content from another game out to me, I could only trust that evidence if I could confirm that it is not contradicted by other evidence from other games. And since like I just said I'm not doing that slogging, I simply cannot rely on anything from exterior games at all.Yeah, meta would be a bother to justify your weak case with, so better ignore it because...well, meta *in one game* is readable, but meta in *more than one game* can't be trusted.
I want to slap whoever started teaching newbs this dreck as sense.
I also do not play alts because I can't be bothered, I never play more than one game at a time, and I always replace into every other game and start from the outset on every other game. It's just the way I roll, dog.- bji
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Karnos - I didn't like his tiff with Sanu and I didn't like how he voted Sanu in post 427 when it was clear that Sanu and he were just in a tit-for-tat argument and nothing from that stupid argument should have been used for any voting purposes period. However, emotion can get the better of anyone so that could explain the vote too ...In post 1061, PenguinPower wrote:Ah, damnit.
VOTE: bji
Please expound upon your read on karnos read for me. Also, elucidate your town!iron read.
I liked his attempt to derail the mislynch. If I were in the game at that point I would have been making the same points. I cannot find any scum motivation in trying to stop a mislynch. I see lots of town motivation in trying to stop a lynch that had no credible likelihood of being a scum lynch and that had no value except as a scum lynch because it would provide nearly zero information as a town lynch.
Didn't I just argue with Thor about my iron read? Did you read it? Do you really want me to repeat it?
Oh fine. In short, I don't see scum fake hammering for reactions, starting wagons for reactions, making votes for reactions. In my experience not many scum want to work that hard or try to take a leadership role like that. I could of course be wrong, and his Mal vote is very troubling to me. He's explained it in a way that is at at least palatable though, and he never to my knowledge claimed that Mal was scum, just that he was a lurker and that it was mostly a policy lynch. Nero Cain may not find that to be significant, but I do.
So in short, he seems townie to me, except for the Mal vote, which I feel he explained adequately. That yields a town lean in my rough evaluation.- bji
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This debate is pointless. You are just pointing out what I've already admitted - I'm not trying to play optimally if playing optimally requires doing shit that I can't stand doing. I've not had any problem playing this game well enough without having to read outside of the games I've played, and doing so has maximized my enjoyment, which is a big part of why I'm here.
Says the guy basing his entire concept of my play off one game, and two votes.In post 1072, bji wrote:Sorry it's just a personal policy of mine not to read external games. If you think that makes my play weaker, oh well. I come to this site to enjoy myself, and slogging through prior games to look for circumstantial evidence is not my idea of fun and I'm not going to do it. And if you point some cherrypicked content from another game out to me, I could only trust that evidence if I could confirm that it is not contradicted by other evidence from other games. And since like I just said I'm not doing that slogging, I simply cannot rely on anything from exterior games at all.
When you meet someone for the first time do you think you know everything about them from one meeting, or do you discover new things on subsequent interactions? Your logic is so inherently flawed I'm not even sure why you think it sounds good.
I get it, you're trying to weaken other people's faith in my ability to play this game as a means for getting them to ignore my case against you. So let's just agree that we've established my play style here and they can judge me based on what's already been said. Because this line of debate must be boring the shit out of everyone (I know it's boring me).
Just trying to demonstrate that I have fairly strict criteria for how I play the game, and these criteria are numerous and I take them seriously.
...okay...are you trying to educate me on your meta play? First off, since you think that info from other games is meaningless, why are you doing it? Second off - I didn't ask about your replace in habits, and am not sure what this has to do with anything I've said. Clarify?In post 1072, bji wrote:I also do not play alts because I can't be bothered, I never play more than one game at a time, and I always replace into every other game and start from the outset on every other game. It's just the way I roll, dog.- bji
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The difference is that the others all agreed that it was policy lynch, but you explicitly called Mal scum on several occasions. That's not objectively discussing the merits of a last minute policy lynch, that's trying to push it, and is a bridge too far if you ask me.In post 1085, Nero Cain wrote:
So I (and the others, I was far from the only one to notice that Mal was posting elsewhere) and should have gone "oh hey, TracerIn post 1071, bji wrote:I do not understand why Mal lurking is scummy but Tracer lurking is not. Is the difference to you the fact that some kind of site info indicated that Mal was playing other games but not this one, but the same source of data showed that Tracer was not playing other games? That's weak sauce if so. Did you consider that Tracer could have an alt and be playing other games constantly here while ignoring this game too? And did you really think that this is the behavior that scum would use - blatant and obviously fact-checkable lurking? Attributing the dumbest possible play to someone so that you can lynch them doesn't sound like good town strategy to me.couldbe playing on an alt. This is something we should consider and not lynch a lazy slot that should have been mature enough to replace out while they coast through the gameBUTwe shouldn't even consider this." PBBBT!
As an example, this game had a player that flipped scum while constantly posting elsewhere.
but its just one example!
There are more but I don't feel like slogging through my past games to find them. Its a somewhat common scumtell.
Here's the thing. We have only a few pieces of undeniably true data in this game. A major piece of objective information is that Mal was town and was fairly quickly lynched at the end of Day 1, in what read to me as a flurry of people giving up on their prior cases and just deciding to join that wagon. Mass hysteria? I dunno, but I would be more likely to believe that at least one or two people on that wagon were scum. My two most likely candidates are you and Thor, for reasons I have already given.- bji
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Well I've been prodded, but I really have little to add except to restate my case.
Call me naive but in the face of lots of uncertainty I'd rather focus on something that is at least grounded in fact, and that's the wagon. I wasn't a part of it in real time so maybe I'd have felt differently about it if I was, but reading it after the fact, it's just really hard for me to believe that this mislynch happened without scum help.
Again, almost everybody abandoned their Day 1 cases to join a fairly quick mislynch based on what I think is patently poor logic, and furthermore, targeted at a player who had had zero meaningul interactions and was, therefore, the least valuable mislynch if he was to be a mislynch (and he was).
It's very, very hard for me to believe that all of those factors happened by chance. Of course it's possible, but this is a game of odds and those odds don't seem good to me.
So now, I had to ask myself, who are the most likely scum drivers or participants of that wagon?
The wagon had Nero Cain, Fire Assassin, Thor, aronagrundy, karnos, ironstove, and GreyICE.
GreyICE is out because already dead town.
ironstove is one of my top town reads for other reasons that I have already stated, so I'm not going to focus on him when I have better choices.
karnos, same.
aronagrundy would be my third choice for scum, and I would vote him absent other choices. I tried to push a little on aronagrundy but I felt like his reasoning in response did seem sincere, and additionally, he doesn't post a lot so it's easy to lose focus on him when other people I am interested in are posting more. That being said, not posting alot should not be a free pass to coasting through so I'd still be happy to pressure aronagrundy if anyone else in this game would bother to try with me.
Thor - I didn't like his unexplained sheep vote and I don't feel like any of the reasons he gave for voting Mal were even remotely as well explained as any of his other reasons for vfoting any of the other people he's voted. So he's a strong candidate for scum on this wagon from my perspective.
Fire Assassin I have as a town read because of the claim and the way that the NK went down, so I'm not focusing on him while other better candidates are present.
Nero Cain started the wagon, which I didn't like, and I really didn't like his defenses, which also involved outright misrepresentations of other players' reasons for being on that wagon, which I elaborated on in post 1089.
I'd lynch one of { Thor, Nero Cain, aronagrundy } today.
Until and unless I do a deep re-examination of the game, I don't see my stance changing there. Everything else feels like pushing ropes because it's all just assumptions based on assumptions that are all founded and based on unverifiable evidence. But the wagon was REAL and is an ACTUAL FACTUAL BASIS to draw evidence and cases from.- bji
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Yes, I'm trying to honor his request. I don't know exactly the length of a post that makes it a wall though, I didn't think that one was too long but I erred on the side of spoilering it anyway, hence the "Is it a wall" tongue in cheek question.In post 1137, Nero Cain wrote:You are putting things in spoiler b/c PP fussed at you for walling right?- bji
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The point is that Grey accused Mal of faking V/LA and didn't even CARE if Mal was scum or even say he thought that Mal was scum. Grey said in the SAME POST that Mal could be town or could be scum, but that he wanted to lynch him anyway because V/LA shenanigans. That is like the definition of a policy lynch. Everyone on that wagon except you was calling it a policy lynch.In post 1159, Nero Cain wrote: The point was that I have a hard time seeing Grey accuse Mal of faking V/LA b/c why the fuck would townEVERdo that?
That was my original point, that invoked all of this argument about GreyICE's statements about Mal.
Really nothing has happened today that fundamentally changes my evaluation as given in post 1130, except that Nero has squirmed like crazy in response.
We really need other players to contribute though. All I'm hearing is echoes off of the walls from me, Nero, and Iron.- bji
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That makes no sense. There was literally zero to change his mind about you between 776 and 777, those are consecutive posts! He's not talking about you in 777, he already talked about you in 776, he's obviously just ISO'd Mal, and he says "Oh holy shit though. I looked at mal's recent posts. Whatever you can be town. This is fake VLA shit." Cripes it is completely obvious that every statement there is about Mal, not you.In post 1171, Thor665 wrote:The 'Whatever, you can be town' from Grey in 777 was a reference to his 776 'you' was 'Thor'.
I swear no one in this game reads.
Or are you now going to claim that his further statements of "Jesus. Don't claim, just die. Fucking fake VLAers. This doesn't just make you scum, it means you are garbage etc etc" was about you also?
And the thing is, you've shown from prior posts that you can read the game alot more carefully than that when it suits your needs.
{ Nero, Thor, Aronagrundy }, with Arona a distant third at this point.- bji
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Doesn't policy lynch mean lynching for non-alignment-related reasons?In post 1176, Thor665 wrote:In post 1175, bji wrote:Cripes it is completely obvious that every statement there is about Mal, not you.
Okay, you're clearly wrong, but let's use small words.
If he's claiming the Mal vote is a policy lynch.
Why is he calling his V/LA "fake" as opposed to complaining that he's just not posting?
He is claiming town is faking being unable to post...?
That makes sense to you?
So not caring whether or not Mal is town or scum, just caring whether or not Mal is ignoring this game while posting elsewhere, is a policy lynch.
Now, you're asking how could Mal have believed that a town player would lurk like that? I don't know, maybe he thinks Mal is some kind of griefer, or is not interested in this game for ??reasons?? and just doesn't want to play, preferring to leave himself on V/LA here so that he doesn't have to deal with prods for a while. The whole concept seemed to piss Grey off pretty well, I suspect he wasn't thinking "awesome, this foolish scum has revealed himself by a brain dead V/LA ploy", because, my god, who actually believes that scum would employ that technique? I think he was pissed about lurkers and especially pissed about lurkers that would hide behind V/LA in a game for any reason at all, because you know what, lurkers piss me off too and if I thought someone was doing it intentionally I'd be extra pissed.
To be frank, the whole concept of believing that someone is scum just because they appear to be abusing V/LA features of the site is so far beyond rational to me that I can't actually even believe that anyone would truthfully propose that. Which is why the fact that everyone else (including Grey) calling it a policy lynch, while Nero called it scum behavior, is telling to me.- bji
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I will admit, that the meaning that you and Thor have ascribed to his statements, could make sense if read that way. That is not the way I read it though, and my interpretation makes more sense when you consider the emotional content of Grey's post.In post 1182, PenguinPower wrote: Are you for real with this post? Grey was obviously referring to Thor with his "ok you can be town" statement. He called out mal for the fake V/LA, so he "let" Thor be town given previous interactions.
It's not hard to understand.- bji
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You are implying that Grey really believed that Mal was scum and using literally the dumbest possible scum strategy. I just don't believe that.In post 1190, PenguinPower wrote:No it doesn't. Not even a little bit. He literally said that, then voted mal, then went on a anti-V/LA faker rant. It's completely obvious.
But hey, I'm happy that you're kind of playing the game. Why are you voting me again?- bji
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You had your vote on me long before this page and never explained it, so giving that reason now seems a bit convenient don't you think?In post 1192, PenguinPower wrote:Your posts on this page are reason enough.- bji
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Ah so I checked the replacement requests forum, Foxbird has only requested a replace for LmkGuy, and I see that everyone else that Foxbird sent weekend prods for has posted here. So I guess we already have just about everyone who is going to contribute in here already.
So in the interest of trying to get things moving forward, let's step back and take a look at this game. Thor and myself are the two hottest wagons at the moment. And yet there are some players who are piddling around with wagons that clearly aren't going anywhere. I present to you: LmkGuy, Lowell, and Saru.
LmkGuy has a very bland ISO. One thing that caught my eye was post 741 where he said "Maybe everyone should post a few reason why they want a certain person lynched", but then he doesn't actually follow through and provide "a few reason" why he wants anyone lynched. This is either very lazy scumhunting, or is an attempt to just kind of coast while looking like he is trying to scumhunt. I mean if you think that everyone posting some concise reasons for a vote is needed to get clarity in the game, why wouldn't you start out by doing it yourself? Unless you actually didn't care or didn't believe what you were saying?
That being said, his whole game reads as just lazy so it could just be that. Plus he's going to be replaced so I'd much rather see what his replacement says that relying on his ISO for evaluating his slot at this point.
Lowell has never voted anyone that I have a scum read on, while at the same time town reading me at every opportunity. He's so not present that he's been slipping under my radar but on re-read of his ISO and paying closer attention to his votes, I am getting a pretty icky feeling about him. He's also not given a single opinion about the Thor wagon or my wagon. Lowell - if you had to choose between me and Thor, who would you vote and why?
Saru is completely hung up on his fight with Lowell and is basically not interacting with the rest of the game, except to occasionally defend himself whenever anyone such as aronagrundy mentions him. If I recall he spent quite a bit of his time on Day 1 in a tit-for-tat with karnos. Saru -- do you have any plans to scumhunt any further than the person you happen to be in a fight with at the moment?
PEdit - Yes Thor I mislynched you in our only other game together. But I've already stated numerous times that I'm not going to let other games influence my decision making in this game. Unless and until I read every game you've ever played, and can evaluate all of your play instead of one example, I'm not going to look at just one example of your play and try to extrapolate anything from that. And besides, if you are a skilled player, and I believe you are, then your scum play should look just like your town play, and you do look pretty similar in this game as you did in the other. But of course, I'm not even factoring that into my case against you. But keep squirming, it's fun to watch ...- bji
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Yes, I've already stated that you and Nero are my top two choices and the Nero wagon doesn't seem to have nearly as much support despite being my preferred wagon so ... we agree that I've already made this clear. I'm not avoiding the vote, I'm just keeping my vote on my top read until it's in town's best interest to move it, and not a moment sooner.In post 1213, Thor665 wrote:It is blatantly obvious you're going to vote me eventually.
What I'm trying to point out to everyone is how you're aware this is a bad wagon - and your avoiding of it is a scum plot.
What plot anyway? What do you think I could possibly gain by "avoiding" a vote I have already expressed willingness to make?- bji
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Lulz at yourself dude. I haven't seen you do anything useful in this game, whereas I am at least trying.In post 1246, PenguinPower wrote:Also...lulz at bji.- bji
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Treading water while trying to look involved would be a decent way to play to a scum wincon ... and you've certainly got that nailed.In post 1248, PenguinPower wrote:I will agree with that point. You are definitely playing to your wincon.- bji
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OK ok. You're more smug than I am. You win.In post 1252, PenguinPower wrote:Yeah...sorry, still waiting for the response to my last question. Weak retort. Points lost.- bji
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Looks like flash. Poor bracing though.In post 1297, MathBlade wrote:
Answer me this: what language(s) did you code it in? Keep in mind you are speaking to a computer programmer.In post 206, ironstove wrote:No, it's not a website, it's code I run locally on my machine and it's not user friendly at all as I wrote it for my personal use.
public function determineAlignmentOfPlayer(Player player){
var response = player.askQuestionToThem();
if (response.truthful)
examineReadOnPlayer();
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This is not a presidential election; you can't just say factually verifiable bullshit and expect people to believe you.In post 1353, Thor665 wrote: Okay, so yesterday there was no case on me at all.
There were clear cases against you yesterday. I, for example, can recall having a pretty good one.
Well I haven't played all that many games of Mafia (7 or so now), but I've not only never seen duplicate roles, I've never even heard anyone mention it as a possibility, not even once. So I'd venture a guess that duplicate roles, if they do exist, are extremely rare.Today the case on me is "there can't be two Trackers!"
Not that there is any reason to think that as far as I'm aware, I've been in multiple games with duplicate roles.
I was already confident in my vote, and FA's flip countering your claim just about pushes it over the top for me.
I'll happily vote Thor but I would like to understand one thing first: if Thor fake claimed as scum, why would he agree to a NK of the only townie with a claim, and one that seemed pretty believable? Wasn't that just a huge gamble that his fake claim wouldn't be outed? I had been thinking that FA was pretty likely tracker, I mean this question:
The bodyguard already died so he wasn't protecting anyone, so that left either an investigative role (tracker) or a killing role (vigilante? Are there any others in a normal game?). I've seen quite a few more trackers than vigs in my day, so tracker seemed the most likely case.In post 712, Fire Assassin wrote: Who should I target for Investigative/Protective/or Killing abilitie(s).
So now ... did scum!Thor really agree to kill the one player most likely to out him?
PEDIT:
That is a very good point. Thor looks all kinds of inconsistent with this claim. I think I'm just going to have to conclude that scum really was dumb enough to kill the one player most likely to out their fake claiming teammate.In post 1354, aronagrundy wrote:@thor:
Thoughts?In post 1335, aronagrundy wrote:
This is thor's first post d2. If he was sitting on the knowledge that FA didn't visit anyone N1, why is he even entertaining the idea that FA is cleared town?In post 785, Thor665 wrote:So...potentially FA cleared town?
I'd like to lynch in here; aronagrundy, karnos, ironstove
I think Aronagrundy is probably town.
Vote: Karnoe
Second Day, going the same way
VOTE: Thor
The only remaining question I have is, does it benefit town to have any more discussion today beyond Thor's almost guaranteed lynching? Seems like any discussion beyond that is only in scum's interest as it gives them more info for their NK, and anything we say today beyond Thor's lynch can wait until tomorrow can't it?- bji
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That's not the point. The point is that Grey died and was revealed as bodyguard.In post 1361, aronagrundy wrote:@bji: that post of FA's you're referring to was made before grey died. Honestly what were the odds from scum's perspective that FA would flip tracker?
From that evidence, I had already concluded that FA was likely the tracker. Why couldn't scum see the same thing? Well I guess they didn't because they derp killed the one player who could out their fake claiming teammate.
I'm just saying that all discussion should be about Thor, anything else can be used against us tonight, and anything we say now beyond the Thor lynch (if we are going to lynch him, and given that flip I can't see how we don't), doesn't do us any good TODAY and can only help scum TONIGHT. Unless we think that our discussion will somehow confuse scum into making a suboptimal NK choice, but I think it's more likely that anything we say helps them more than helps us.In post 1363, Nero Cain wrote:
well unless something happens to the nk we lose a townie so isn't that reason enough to not lynch Thor right off?In post 1355, bji wrote:Seems like any discussion beyond that is only in scum's interest as it gives them more info for their NK, and anything we say today beyond Thor's lynch can wait until tomorrow can't it?- bji
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Well aside from cop, I haven't personally played with any others. I guess scum could have thought FA was cop too. But then:In post 1370, aronagrundy wrote:Ok that said I'm confused re: bji too. Like there are investigative roles beyond tracker
Thor would have to believe that FA was cop, and then he'd claim tracker knowing that since the bodyguard was dead and there was likely no doctor (doctor + bodyguard in same game, does that happen?) that a NK of the cop would not out him. But he'd have to be pretty sure that FA was cop and not tracker ...
Maybe there are other investigative roles but I haven't seen them personally. I'm just not sure that if I were scum I'd agree to a kill of the one player most likely to out me.
Anyway, this is all just speculation about scum motives, and not particularly important given what we know about FA's flip and Thor's claim.- bji
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This is clearly a lie because no college student gets up at 6 am. Also no college student goes a whole day without checking every possible source of information on their phone numerous times.In post 1346, Saru wrote:Thor claimed at like 6am my time (EST) when I was getting ready to head to college. I didn't see the claim until I left my class which was on my mobile 10 minutes before the deadline (I never mobile post, fwiw). I figured it would be better not to take the chance of lynching a PR, basically. Nothing more to it.
j/k It's notclearlya lie, but it's no better or more verifiable than Lowell's non-reason for not hammering. Also MathBlade ...
Why? Why did you believe Thor's claim?In post 1326, MathBlade wrote:I believe Thor's claim.
I agree that all these refusals to hammer are ... interesting.
Please don't.In post 1390, ironstove wrote:I have a long flame post I wrote while night was out I'm gonna a paste it here so I can get banned from this game- bji
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Dude that's a little harsh.In post 1403, ironstove wrote:I tried being nice about this at d2 to push people to Lynch and explain why it is actually worse to no lynch than Lynch a town when a mislynch is available but people don't listen because they act like they're too fucking good at this game.
Like I don't FUCKING care if I get mod replaced I have already won fmpov it's these fucking shitty town players who are fucking idiots and can't fucking play the game correctly by listening to reason because they're so fucking obsessed with their conf bias and are basically more concerned with their egos than winning
Please show me where you "explain why it it is actually worse to no lynch than Lynch a town when a mislynch is available" ... I looked at your day 2 ISO. I see lots of "do this, because I say so", but little explanation.
Also ...
You are one of the people who screwed up on the Day 1 lynch, you admit it here.In post 1038, ironstove wrote: In retrospect I should have held my vote and waited last minute but I thought the outcome would be the same and fmpov nl was the only outcome that would have occurred had I fought the Lynch with that little time. Fmpov even if I thought mal wasn't scum, I voted because maybe I was wrong and the flip would give information.
It was very troubling to me that you flip flopped your way onto that mislynch, and your outrage today looks a little fake to me. Me thinks thou dost protest too much ...- bji
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Where did this come from? Surely not just OMGUS?
And please, for the love of god, don't say it has something to do with 1800 ...- bji
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OK so you prefer terse and uninformative arguments. Message received and understood.In post 1630, PenguinPower wrote:Lots of unnecessary words.
1st wall: I guess we disagree. I think votes are the only thing that matter in the end, and karnos was weakly pushing Thor while voting elsewhere. I already said his D2 was bussing, and D3 had to happen given the claim. Literally said that right above.
2nd wall: Whatever. It was a quickhammer.
From Wiki:is a technique (usually) used by scum tosecure a lynch by hammering a player before anyone can react.
You are wrong, and you are wrong.
Better?- bji
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1558 and 1559.In post 1699, Nero Cain wrote:What is your case on me besides "didn't vote Thor"?
Nero is absolutely not even trying to play this game.
What happened between your day 1 vigor where you made posts like 284 and started wagons and such, and today, when you can't even be bothered to read the game?- bji
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A few reasons --In post 1701, Nero Cain wrote:Why did you feel the need to answer for Iron?
- I want to engage with you
- I want to demonstrate that you are not even reading the game, because I think town needs to be aware of this
- I want to avoid Iron having to re-post his case again because this thread is already so damn long and cluttered with sh** it's just getting easier and easier for scum to hide in all the detrius- bji
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In post 1700, bji wrote: What happened between your day 1 vigor where you made posts like 284 and started wagons and such, and today, when you can't even be bothered to read the game?- bji
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You never showed that.In post 1704, Nero Cain wrote: I mean you have argued (and Iron) that I'm scummy for pushing Mal but as I have shown I've lynched scum for this exact same reason so why is it scummy that I'd think Mal could be scum for the exact same reason?
I'm curious to know what you think of iron's claim. Don't you want to know what his actual role is? You haven't expressed any interest.
PEDIT: What? Can you please rephrase the question NOT in the form of a run-on sentence? I cannot parse it. - bji
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