STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[grapes]

@Fuzzy

Vig the shit out of RR.

So you don't miss it this time.

[Reasonably Rational]

@grapes: when have you shown much caring? Instances of your involvement have been few and far between. What third party bullshit are you concerned about?

-Cerb

You're either a robot or scum.
Or both.

I'm not really sure what it is about me wanting to make sure the lynch on shadow is successful makes me a robot?

-Cerb

[grapes]

I'm a little bit frustrated and am going to stop posting for a while.

[Randomnamechange]

So now that I have a few more moments I have some time to post my thoughts.

I did indeed bubble Shiro last Night. I assumed given the lack of scum Nightkill that I prepared that RR’s fears about today being LYLO thanks to a scum kill would be diminished and Fuzzy would hit Shadow to eliminate the full complement of Creature / Shiro / Shadow so if the game didn’t end we could start looking among the less usual suspects.

Shiro can be released as necessary but I’m really loathe to do so given that I’d want him lynched anyway if he is released. I have confirmed that his bubbled status counts as him being dead for purposes of Town winning via elimination of all the Threats to Earth.

Grapes is literally the last of Almost / Grapes / RR I would want vigged. Almost or RR would be preferable to me if the game doesn’t outright end on a Shadow lynch.

@RR

– The info dropped by Random overnight was … underwhelming. Literally just two post with about 50-60 total words. If you intended more to be provided … well … it didn’t happen.

Random and I are Allying tonight. We have our reason for this.

--

I gave it in the PT.......there is nothing more to it,

ProTip – I can’t see that PT so this response is meaningless. Explain to those of us

NOT

in your PT why you didn’t shoot your number 1 scum suspect knowing that you get another Vig today.

Anyways Shadow fake comments means that Grapes is very likely not scun..thus I wont vig Grapes tonight

No, grapes is not cleared by the trolling at all. That shadow came in trolling indicates that he knew he was boned so nothing he says today should be attempted to be parsed as it is all WIFOM. I think grapes is less likely scum than either of Almost or RR based on my conversations with him in our PT. Is that information absolutely solid? No he could have been lying to me but what he chose to tell me makes little sense as it would not let him live to LYLO.

--

@MoI: I don't know what Random told you, so....yeah.

Can you explain your position regarding farside, given that you said yesterday that you understood my concerns?

-Cerb

I did't quote all of the logic bc it changed a lot and wasn't needed. A lot of it was theory crafting around fuzzy shooting last night/ a different set of alliances which got changed later so I didn't change that. I summarized fairly heavily. I probs should've explained the LyLo situation in detail. I put everything I put in the post in our alliance that I said I would RR.

TFL looks really scummy right now. They are still trying to swing as many potential vig shots for themselves as possible.

[Reasonably Rational]

I don't think that really makes sense Random. If they're scum the only reason to not shoot Shadow would be to force town to lynch him, but they had to know that he'd be forced to shoot him tonight if shadow wasn't lynched today.

So....why not just shoot him last night and remain safe as " this guy shot scum with a vig".


-Cerb

[Randomnamechange]

Buying time?
Mechanically I agree that he looks town, but his posting has been incredibly scummy.

[Reasonably Rational]

So....what course of action do you propose we take?

-Cerb

[Randomnamechange]

lynch shadow today.
TFL vigs [person]
if vig shot is town we lynch TFL

[TheFuzzylogic99]

hey if you want to lynch me.... lynch me tomorrow/ We have a confess scum that needs to die.

I would not say my play is scummy just a bit erratic ....but everything seems different when you are looking from your own eyes as opposed to someone else.

As I said it doesn't matter who I vig ....the plan being we lynch Shadow. If the game does not end we have one scum left. I vig from the list. If I hit game over ..... if not we lynch tomorrow and that's should be game.

[mastin2]

Mastin you have been a bit quiet, any thoughts other then lynch shadow, who you are scum reading?

I stopped having the capacity to townread/scumread players two phases ago. I asked Varsoon to deliver a message to the dead topic where I explained this in more detail, but basically: I knew that kraska/Creature wasn't the scumteam. I knew that--at MOST--one of them would be scum. And that it was fully possible (as it turned out) neither were.

But.

I literally had no better ideas.

I know that I'm confirmed town. I know that it's my job to lead the town, as confirmed town. But my mind's an utter mess. The way I process information is...I am both right, and wrong, 100% of the time. Because I both think every player is scum, and every player is town. The way I function. The way I remain even remotely close to competent. Is that I push probabilities in my mind. For instance, sure. It's

possible

that MoI and randomidget are scum of some sort. Sure. It's possible MoI and randomidget have a third party wincon that will endgame the town. I prefer to deal with the probability, however, that they are effectively town. (Especially given the similarities between the crystal gems and the URS make perfect sense to me.)

Sure, it's possible farside is a malevolent third party. Sure, it's possible farside is scum. The probability to me tells me she's more likely than not town enough to not be a lynch.

Beyond that, though. We've already reached the point where I've lost my ability to produce rational, reasonable, functional analysis. The probabilities I have list

everyone

as more likely to be town than scum. So at least one of my probabilities is therefore...wrong. And I can't discern which it is.

Do you know how bad that doubt is?

It's bad enough where it would not at all surprise me to learn that Shadow is town, trolling.
This, in spite of Shadow having literally scumclaimed.

There's the hope that Shadow is scum, and Shiro was the partner. If Shadow flips scum and the game doesn't end, then Shiro is confirmed as town, though, by my understanding. (There can only be two scum left. If Shadow is one of them, then there would be one left after he was lynched. Because Shiro counts as dead when bubbled, if Shiro were the other, we'd win. So with Shiro bubbled and the game not ending, we have confirmation that Shiro is town--I trust MoI can confirm this with the mod, and either already has done so or will launch a flurry of questions to try and explicitly 100% beyond all shadow of a doubt confirm it after he comes back.)

So where does that leave me?
That leaves me with Fuzzy, Almost50, RR, and grapes.

Aside from Fuzzy, these players have been my strongest townreads practically since the game has begun.

And frankly, I'm disregarding role mechanics in terms of why they would be town. I don't care about Fuzzy's vig. I don't care about RR's power. I don't care about Almost50's power. I don't care about grapes's power. (Not that I really know the details of their roles, though. They've partially claimed, but I don't think any of those three have fullclaimed. And for that matter Fuzzy may have but I don't remember where.)

All of them have reasons to be town. Fuzzy's tone hasn't seemed like scum. The way Almost50 used his joyride, combined with his early presence in the game seemed town. RR's been entering the game solving mode which has looked like what I expect RR's game solving mode to be when they are town. grapes was the main force behind the SirCakez lynch, is the best lead we have for being the scum's N1 nightkill, and was obviously town in the earlygame even without the lynch seemed town. Plus, grapes's ranting today sounds incredibly sincere.

All of them have reasons to be scum. Fuzzy's actions are extremely lackluster. Almost50 has somewhat-consistently protected scum throughout the majority of the game. RR's had some egregious posting at points, among them being the campaign against farside which looked incredibly scum-motivated, and also, if kraska and Shiro were both town, they'd be the only possible scum name on SirCakez. And grapes has, since the D1 lynch, been coasting. grapes hasn't given a single major push since then. There was white knighting of Creature, but that only materialized after the lynch on Creature was already inevitable.

I would lynch Fuzzy, and I would lynch RR, but beyond that...I wouldn't have any direction. At all. Whatsoever. There are no obvious signs. There are no obvious tells. If there's a section of the game where the dead thread--sure to have more information than the living, no doubt--is ranting at me to check out because it has the answer, because it has what I need...well sure that may be obvious to the dead thread, but it sure aint obvious to me with me alive.

No doubt when I do die and I come to the dead thread, this late into the game I guarantee you that they are spoiled. It'd be literally impossible for them to remain unspoiled this long. So they know the answer. And when I do join them there, I will look at the game and facepalm at how, in hindsight, it was so obvious that I won't be able to believe how stupid I was to have missed it.

The problem is that I am in fact...that stupid right now. We have 450 pages that can be sifted through. We have all of this information at our disposal. In spite of me being conftown, I'm not actually privy to all of it, thanks to the inability to communicate it to me except publicly where it would be open to all.

I've simply run out of ideas. I'm out of my element. Rather...I was in my element for a time a few days ago, and then that element failed. That element broke apart. That element, which felt right, turned out to not be right. So in this post-prime state, in this gamestate past the point of where I am at my best, because my best was wrong and my best has failed...I cannot take the leadership position. I cannot dictate things. "Okay, here's the plan. This is what we are going to do."

If I had a clear direction, sure. If I had an idea, sure. But while I usually have a plan. While I usually have a strategy, some grand idea. I've exhausted them all this game. I have none left. So all I can do is sit in the background, and comment on other players' plans. I can give my feedback on what they want to do: "I think this is a good idea". "I think it's worth trying". On rare occasions, "I don't approve of this". And if asked for reasoning why, I can probably give some sort of reply laying out the logic.

But I fundamentally can

not

do my job and, as confirmed town, be a leader. Not in this state, not with my doubt, not with me unable to parse the useful information from the useless. I tried. I tried pair interactions. I tried VCA. I tried scumteam interactions. I don't have a solid direction. I don't have a solid answer. I have nothing left in me because every tool in my arsenal has failed.

Unless the last scum is Fuzzy, the last scum player by necessity is required to be a player whose skill level is high enough where they have thoroughly embedded themselves in the workings of the town. Unless the last scum is Fuzzy, the last scum player has managed to penetrate into the heart of the townbloc that has been driving the game forward for...the entire game. Unless the last scum is Fuzzy, then one of the players we've been assuming is town since D2 (Almost50, RR, grapes) is actually scum. And while of those three I hold a much higher chance of lynching RR than the other two, I hold no stance on Almost50 vs. grapes, which--in a worst-case scenario--I think 3p lylo would boil down to.
(We've got nine alive. Shadow flips scum. Game doesn't end, Shiro is confirmed as town. We have a nightkill. Eight alive once Shiro is let back into the game, or seven if Fuzzy vigged. Lynch one of the four. Scum kill. 5/6 alive. Lynch another of the four. 3/4 alive. Lylo, or mylo. And unless Fuzzy shot one of the four, then two of the four will be alive in there. Meaning we'd only have a 50% chance at winning.)

Ideally, yes, the game ends before then.
Ideally, Shadow flips scum, and Shiro was the partner, game ends.
If not, Shadow flips scum, and Fuzzy is the partner.
If not, Shadow flips scum and Fuzzy vigs the partner.

But if the game doesn't end after any of those...then yeah. I don't know what to do.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Fine......
it will give scum an extra day,,,, but I don't care......as long as you lynch off my list after I die.
Scum is pretty much doomed at this point so even if they are given an extra day they still going to loose.

I pefer Almost over RR.... RR just seems to be tunneling Farside , I don't think they are scum. But if town wants me to vig RR I will


Vote for Vig tonight
Almost - Fuzzy
RR -

Grapes

(so I don't Miss it)
Grapes-

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Hey Grapes it just a game......relax. anyways unless you are scum you have zero to worry about . Town has this won!!!!!

[mastin2]

I suppose that works as some semblance of a plan:
Lynch Shadow.
If he flips scum and the game doesn't end, release Shiro from the bubble.
During the night while we are waiting for Shadow's flip, Fuzzy vigs RR.
If the game isn't over with Shiro confirmed as town and RR dead...lynch Fuzzy. (This takes us to night with six alive.)
We should have the mislynches necessary to lynch both Almost50 and grapes, probably in that order. (Day dawns, five alive. Lynch Almost50. Scum kill. Three alive, lynch grapes.)

If the basic premises we're running on are true, that being, Shiro is confirmed town if Shadow flips scum; MoI and random are both town; farside is also effectively town, then this works.

But I'm sure that those who are more attuned to everything have a MYRIAD of problems with this plan.
Which is why I'm not advocating for it right now.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

if I get lynched tomorrow if I don't shoot scum I shooting Almost......

Shadow ( lynched)
Almost
RR
Grapes

[grapes]

And grapes has, since the D1 lynch, been coasting. grapes hasn't given a single major push since then. There was white knighting of Creature, but that only materialized after the lynch on Creature was already inevitable.

Everyone's coasted a bit. My coasting hasn't always been a thing I wanted to do, if you know what I mean. Believe I pushed kraska and was pushing a scum lynch just last day.

It's not a white knight when I laid out why the lynch was bullshit and you read eod; depending on who's scum here there was a shot drixx voted shadow and almost hammered. Nothing's inevitable everything's live until the thread is locked.

What's this with talking about rr gamesolving? Do you mean sk-hunting and scumposting?
Who do you think puts the idea to vig me into fuzzy's head?

hey if you want to lynch me.... lynch me tomorrow/ We have a confess scum that needs to die.

I would not say my play is scummy just a bit erratic ....but everything seems different when you are looking from your own eyes as opposed to someone else.

As I said it doesn't matter who I vig ....the plan being we lynch Shadow. If the game does not end we have one scum left. I vig from the list. If I hit game over ..... if not we lynch tomorrow and that's should be game.

Your play has been scummy, fuzzy. You've borderline scumslipped on more than one occasion and I really have not a clue why you haven't shot anything since firebringer. But I want to believe it's easy.

Why do you think I'm scum?

I'm not really sure what it is about me wanting to make sure the lynch on shadow is successful makes me a robot?

Why do you assume I was talking about you calling for the hammer?

[Reasonably Rational]

Because that was quite literally the ONLY thing I had posted prior to you saying that?

And all I said to fuzzy was that today should be spent removing farside and shadow, while various reasons ensure neither slot can escape(which I said before shadow even did his whole scumclaimingwhiletryingtowifom thing), so yeah. No idea wtf you're on about grapes.

-Cerb

[Almost50]

TFL looks really scummy right now. They are still trying to swing as many potential vig shots for themselves as possible.

I'd like to emphasize on this statement. Scum!TFL could NOT have shot anyone last night because of the ongoing event. I would lynch him over conf.Scum!Shadow at this point (and I DO have a reason for it too).

OK, I'll lay my cards:

TFL is currently allied with me (and RR), and the actions of whoever allies with me on the Finale .. CANNOT FAIL. (That's why I wanted to ally with Mastina, btw.. so that her check could not be redirected or blocked in anyway).

So, while Shadow IS confirmed Scum, TFL will have a GUARANTEED SHOT tonight. (Note that the event's effect ends by today's Exposition, so the Scum kill is not prevented by it anymore on the Climax, while the effect from the alliance with me guarantees the shot WILL go through).

As for Shadow's trolling, I believe he was talking to "someone" on the 2nd one (the "the longer grapes lives .. bla bla"), and that someone certainly is NOT Shiro (because Shiro is bubbled so should have no access to any other PT's, which is proven by his PT with me still being locked btw).

So, I propose we lynch TFL today and the Gems can always bubble Shadow tonight to make sure he doesn't kill either. If a kill still occurs then we know there's an additional scum left. If not, then the game should be over (as per MOI's statement of his bubbled target counting as a death for as long as they are bubbled).

If I'm not being clear enough, please ask specific questions for me to be able to respond in a way that makes my thoughts perfectly clear to you.

VOTE: TFL

[Almost50]

So....why not just shoot him last night and remain safe as " this guy shot scum with a vig".

Because Scum usually can't kill scum, and even if they did the currently going event prevented him from shooting.

[Almost50]

Buying time?
Mechanically I agree that he looks town, but his posting has been incredibly scummy.

I beg to differ here. Otherwise, what was the point from activating that event (I trust either you or MOI activated it, and I trust it was for an elaborate reason).

[Almost50]

the actions of whoever allies with me on the Finale .. CANNOT FAIL.

Btw, I believe both Gems, as well as RR, grapes and TFL himself can confirm this bit. It's in the opening post of each alliance PT I've been in.

[Almost50]

And I was really hoping MoI or RR would actually recommend me allying with Mastina FOR THIS VERY REASON when I proposed it yesterday. I can't believe both "slots" (i.e. 3 different players, considering RR is a duo) missed it. I even PM'd Varsoon about it to release the pressure off my mind a bit. I was frustrated nobody picked at it and thought "Oh! That's right. Mastina alling with Almost on the Finale makes her Gunsmith check a trump!"

[Reasonably Rational]

I can confirm what A50 is saying. I also reject in totality the bullshit Grapes is peddling. We never suggested to anyone that TFL shoot Grapes. The plan was always for us to use our hammer ability on Farside today (assuming we could get you guys to realize that she's 3rd party and in a Varsoon game there is precedent for that to be a solo win alone condition) and to point Fuzzy at Shadow.

I believe Random can confirm that was our plan and that our reasoning for doing it that way is sound.

~Drixx

P.S. - First post by me today grapes. Not sure what you were going on about me earlier for but I've been sick as heck and went to bed before day started and just got up an hour ago.

P-Edit: We didn't pick up on it because she was only given a one shot of it and used it already.

[Reasonably Rational]

Yep..which is why I wanted you allied with fuzzy so the shot could be leashed and there could be no possible doubt about whether nor not fuzzy shot, and who he shot at.

I think you're misunderstanding the event though A50. It specified scum factional abilities and scum events couldn't be used. I don't see any reason why a theoretical scum!fuzzy with a PERDONAL vig shot couldn't use it. Now, I don't know whether or not scum would be allowed to use such a vig on one of their teammates, but I think it's certainly with the realm of possibility.

-Cerb

Pedit:A50, she doesn't have a gunsmith check anymore..she used it on TWIE days ago.

...

The only powers I knew about that you could empower were farside's roleblock(which apparently can't stop the scum kill, so it didn't matter) and Fuzzys vig.

Pedit again: ninjaed.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Phone post to say no we are lynching Shadow today for certain.

When I get to a computer I will explain why.

[Reasonably Rational]

Phone post to say no we are lynching Shadow today for certain.

When I get to a computer I will explain why.

Agreed.

It's umm pretty obvious why. I'll be arguing with A50 about that when I get home..:p

-Cerb