Mini Normal 1862 - Town win.

[Rainbowdash]

You all need to post less. This much in a day is nearing a point where its just anti-town in nature for those of us who have a regular job and cant be online 24-7. Currently a third of the game has less than ten posts, and likely as with me don't have the time to be effective in a 15 page a day game. Some people can only really give an hour or two a day to playing, and when all of that time is spent getting caught up on all of this you are going to create an oversaturation of information on a few players and leave the bar on entry at others so high that you are going to get next to zero content. I can normally read at work, but a phone and hooves? That isn't conducive to being able to play the game.

That just needs to be said. Say in it less words. Let other ponies get a chance to say things. Posting this much is an anti-town practice when a third of the game is essentially eliminated from the picture because of it, and a fast paced game is by FAR the easiest thing for scum to be able to manipulate because there tends to be far more impulsive acts. I will see if I can find a game from a few years back that I am remembering where town basically lost what should have been a cakewalk win because they sped the game up way too fast and scum took advantage of it.

Trying to get caught up and something substantial out when cooking now.

[Rainbowdash]

@Grey - Why do you react with a vote to Ircher saying he is a bad player (which he has number to back up) while ignoring Aspho laying out a scum meta of themselves? Both are self-reflective and you jumped on the far less important one.

@HS - You say that its too early to lynch Ircher because he might just be "bad town" and there is not that much content early on. This one is really bugging me because you are just essentially just punting on the forming wagon by saying you like it but he could be town. You continue on to say that you want to hear what he has to say, but aren't actually trying to make him say anything.

Flubber and Alisae are the voices of reason for question what is up with the Gamma and Ircher wagons which are both very flimsy at best.

HS getting progressively worse as this goes on for pointing out what he thinks is a softclaim, which if you see as town you say NOTHING about and just change your read to town in a believable manner. Scum just brings it more to the front as when a PR sees another one, they will react differently than VT. There better be a wagon on them coming.

AA can be town. I really dislike the snap sheep of Grey though who had completely ignored everpony but Ircher and just fluff posted up to that point.

That said the Aspho wagon where it is about ten pages in doesn't feel natural. There is a case, but there is nothing else getting traction and no pony is even trying to start any other type of a push. Lots of players haven't been active, but it feels like there is no resistance and too little that is being utilitzed in the case. I couldn't point to anything that he has said that make him town, but I have alarm bells about the wagon (probably in part that I have a strong scum read on HS which would mean Aspho is probably town)

I could live with calling Naomi town, and actually not hating an Ircher town read because he keeps getting needled for stupid things and has responded well to it.

Going to do another back read before voting, but im probably on HS here. Grey would not be a bad wagon as well. If this game is still this pace, im essentially V/LA then during normal working times because as I said: Phone Typing + Hooves isn't happening.

[Rainbowdash]

I guess thanks for only putting up 10 pages overnight?

Before I get caught up properly, there are two things that need to be said. I am commandeering that IC hat from Gamma because he has ZERO idea about what he is talking about and if he is town just really helped scum these last few pages.

1) The "scum don't have day talk" is not a slip. It is something that you should always operate on as being true unless something presents itself to directly say otherwise. If Naomi said scum DO have day talk, that would be worth jumping on. As it stands she said something that I would bet all my bits everypony else assumed is the case.

2) Asectic should absolutely 100% NOT CLAIM if they are town, and I am stuck between Gamma as the town VI or as scum trying to find out more about PRs. For two primary reasons. The first is that a majority of time a town role is given the ascetic modifier, its to help balance out another part of their role. Like if a mod wants a cop and a doctor, they can make the cop ascetic and that acts as a way to weaken the town role. The second is what Gamma did if he is town just made the scum job easier. Again working on common assumptions and nothing else, scum learns that he is not any other role threat to them. 10:3 is the standard split for these games, assume VT lynch day one. Scum would have 9 players to choose to NK from, with Gamma making his move, that is down to 8. Again the standard 2/3 town PR assumption... that means scum increase their chance of killing a PR by about 10% (3/9 - 33% to 3/8 - 43%) if they are just randomly guessing.

What does town gain? Lets say there are two roles that can give us a direct advantage (which is generous... 2+ investigators is rare) that would otherwise be nullified. They both randomly target the other 11 players at random, with 2 players its about a 17% chance they will target the ascetic. If they claimed it drops to 11%. So town gains 6% chance at not wasting a shot, scum gains 10% chance of killing a value target. If there is only one investigator, gets even more advantage for scum. Its like the ponies who say "miller must claim". Its flawed thinking that a longshot chance might happen, when it gives scum a massive heads up on the setup and who is what role. You are doing their job for them.

I want to say VI on him, but this is SUCH simple logic if you put pencil to paper for just a minute that I have a hard time with it. I just hope if he is town that his role is a red herring, the town with that role hasn't checked in or was cheeky and just claimed not ascetic (which I thought about doing, but this needs to be said if for no other reason to correct future thoughts). Anypony else who hasn't claimed should refuse.



Math.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Grey

Lots of posts, next to zero content, and most of what he said is really bad.

Already making excuses for his poor decisions.

Remember that? When he voted Ircher because he posted his win rate? Its completely null, its just provides a baseline read on how good a player is. Funny enough he actually calls HIMSELF a bad player at a later point, making his weak "case" even weaker. Even more he calls Ircher a good player at a later point.

Between his chainsawing and efforts to undermine town cohesion, I think Ircher has put forward sufficient effort to earn a wagon.

Both of those are never explained. You also cant call somepony out for a chainsaw when there isn't a scum flip.

He has plenty of experience to know that there is no scum motive in my posts. He's just pushing a superficial read to look town.

He is scum because I look like scum and he is attacking me.

Drops it for Aspho because... I dunno.

It's not like I'm trying to put myself in the position of town leader to direct lynches, so what does standing out do to advance a scum wincon?

How is this even a defense? He literally is trying to say that because he is not trying to lead lynches (which he had been on Ircher for a long time) he cant be scum. Also is apparently sheeping a player which with the same logic would suggest that he is following scum?

Town often makes superficial cases on d1 because there isn't anything more substantial to build a case around when the game is just getting started.

Remember when Ircher was scum for making "superficial cases" earlier?

There is some really weird attack on Alisae that actually gets immediately dropped as soon as HS says "Maybe they are town without self-confidence"

Then comes the big point (as if what he had done up to there is remotely town like).

The "no day talk slip" saga.

Grey is the first to point it out, and votes Naomi for it. As already stated, this is a dumb idea and says that only scum would say that when again, its standard operating procedure to assume that is true.

Then we get this where it gets very fun

So, Gamma is voting me for voting Naomi over a slip, but completely ignoring 2F who is not only sheeping my push but advancing with it after Gamma stated in thread that he doesn't believe it's a slip.

Town Gamma would have picked up on 2F continuing to push what he considers a non-slip and voted him.

Possible Gamma/2F team. (I read 2F as possible scum for other reasons)

VOTE: Gamma

I had to read this a few times because its just THAT confusing.

What basically happens is a Gamma points out how bad the "slip" case is, and votes Grey for it. Grey freaks out and calls Gamma scum and tries to throw TF under the bus because they also liked the chance of the slip meaning something.

Also he apparently is entirely abandoning the Naomi read, and instead is basically launching an OMGUS attack while trying to deflect blame onto another. He actually is using the fact that TF thought the exact same thing that Grey said as a reason that TF is scum. This is now the second instance of Grey saying a player is scum for doing something that Grey did first.

Naomi, 2F is pushing both of us because he got sucked into the scumslip and now he's butthurt over me calling him out for attaching himself to me since page two.

"Sucked into" what Grey said was absolutely a slip and would never vote elsewhere. Grey continues to try and shift the blame to anypony else and discredit those attacking him.

Vote Grey

Can we lynch this guy? He is responsible for a lot of the spam and fluff in this thread, and is ridiculously scummy to boot.

[Rainbowdash]

If somebody said "scum probably have day talk" would that be a slip?

I would be far more concerned about that one. We speak in declaratives quite a bit, such as "Grey is scum".

What do you think about Ircher saying that being pr confirmed ascetic with no claim is an auto lynch?

That bothers me a little, but I still have a fairly solid town read on him. However

Since Gamma claimed Ascetic Enabler, any "no results" results should be insta-lynched because the ascetic(s) is/are scum hiding behind the role.

Grey is still pushing it without addressing my post about why this logic is bad and my case on him. Can we really lynch him at this point?

Negative utility always claims straight out the gate. You should be experienced enough to know that.

No they don't. The only role that I can see as the justifiable D1 claim out the gate is PGO, otherwise you help scum. Plus Ascetic is not necessarily negative utility. You will learn that with experience.

[Rainbowdash]

Miller

Nah.

You need to not only have a cop in the game but they also need to target you. Its far more of a risk, but by claiming miller you basically say to the scum "by the way there is a cop in this game". Even if you want to say both players survive two cycles, you are at about 80% chance not to be investigated. Especially in a large game, I think you can get away without a miller claim, even more if you leave some sort of a "Hey look at me, im a miller and this is a convenient breadcrumb" type post.

Less scum know about the setup the harder it is to play as scum. C9++ setup is the best example of how scum not knowing what they are up against makes the game FAR harder for them.

That's just theory though, I think site still tends to trend towards the conservative miller claim (likely due to lack of scum faking it) although not as much anymore, but I think there is plenty of justification against throwing that claim out as well.

[Rainbowdash]

I am fairly confident that's BS.

I don't want a real cop countering him right now. For time being and hopefully to make this far easier, what type of results do you get: Guilty/Not Guilty or Mafia/Not Mafia.

[Rainbowdash]

@Grey - Last chance to add anything else to your claim that you may have been missing.

Im still convinced grey is scum and he is caught for both game actions he hasn't realized yet and something else that im not going to say until he responds to this just incase he decided to leave out something critical in his claim because there is some stuff that doesn't add up.

[Rainbowdash]

"Hey look at me, im a miller and this is a convenient breadcrumb"

Im a cheeky pony and I freaking love it.

Yeah im claiming miller. It why I specifically asked about the type of result that he would get since my role is a bit vague regarding it, but heavily implies that he would be getting guilty/not guilty instead of mafia as he suggested.

Now your immediate thought may be as to why I question a cop when my role implies it and there are a few things that I have been thinking as to why I am pretty sure he is lying about this that don't have to do with result wording. In a bit of a spoiler alert, I think there is a better chance that he is fakeclaiming town than a cop.

1) His immediate thought of "we lynch any guilty or 'no result' D2". This is first implies he would be alive which if he is a cop... why does he think this really, especially when he has continually pushed for a fact that there is "no RB" in the game. The assumption that there is no RB is a little interesting, as a RB is a usually a scum counter for a role. The presence of Gamma doesn't increase or decrease the chance for there to be a RB unless the ascetic is scum in which case it dramatically. Either way, what is the worst case for him as scum? Call a guilty on a player like me or another somewhat hard lynch and end up not pulling it off? Best case he got out of D1 lynch, easy D2 lynch and scum is way up.

2) The game he kept referring to he claimed cop in and completely left that out of his reason for crumbing. Its why I have this really bad gut feeling that he might be VT and is completely screwing with us and I am either a red herring role or there is a real cop who was smart and kept their mouth shut. If he is going to refer to a game he claimed cop in (even as not cop) how do you NOT link that into your claim? I had no idea what Gamma was going on about early, but figured it had to be something role related since I couldn't see any play reason to make that link.

3) Ascetic. As I already stated, that is a way to weaken a role far more often than not. What else is Gamma effecting? I don't think he can be a red herring since that would be a massive curveball by the mod. Throw in a very rare role (enabler) and then give it an ever more rare modifier (ascetic) and then make it useless? Doubt it. He has to be playing some part in this game, and scum having that modifier makes little sense as it doesn't really benefit them in any way, even if an ideal situation occurs (like cop targets ascetic) as its not a clear, just a "there might be a RB" and if Gamma claimed would likely get them lynched. So its probably a town modifier, and it pretty much would only work on something like a cop. Its why I kept trying to push just incase he was lying and was a more believable one shot or something.

Not as much on a direct correlation, but a PR claim D1 is a bit more likely from scum than from town. Town wont (shouldn't) fake claim as VT. Scum who are going to be lynched without a PR claim will claim a PR at a higher frequency than exist in the game. Its not big, but it more works counter to this. A VT claim is disproportionally likely to come from town D1 when it the first player ran up.

Anyways tl;dr

My role wording, him setting up ideal scum resolutions and assuming he will be around D2 to execute it, ignoring what seems like what would be an obvious cop breadcrumb from somepony who was planning it, ascetic not really balancing with a full cop.... I think he is scum.

Really I think there is a better chance he is a VT who saw this work once and now tries to do anti-town play than he is a real cop. Either way I needed to claim here because I basically wreck a scum claim, become basic conf-town due to it and am a role that isn't even a threat to scum. That's a win-win in my book since they have to take me out or hunt other roles.

Lets lynch him now please and thank you. That was not cop play. That was somepony trying to act like a cop.

[Rainbowdash]

RainbowDash, what's your opinion on the Ircher wagon?

Melted down and given away a lot of his town points, but if we are going away from Grey I like Aspho or HS instead.

[Rainbowdash]

@Rainbow: if you believe me about my claim Ircher should be scummy to you.

As odd as it may seem given what I am currently pushing, I tend to pride myself more on town read than on scum reads. If you have ever seen me play I will absolutely defend somepony I think is town to no end when I read them as town, even if that's not a popular read I am usually able to get them off the block. I was reading Ircher as one of my strongest town reads for quite a while, so this sudden descent of him is giving me fits since I don't know if he actually is just confused about what is going on or had happened to luck into hitting a few of my town tells in the early game.

Really im not sure if he just doesn't understand that the only way I really think you are scum is if you are ungodly creative with that role claim/are true claiming as scum and ascetic is scum or there is none. Its hard to sometimes judge since your role really is that rare.... in easily over 100 games here this is maybe the third time I have seen this role pop up.

Removed from your claim, you would be more of a null read to me, but that claim I don't see being fabricated, and if you had the guts to claim that as scum more power to you. That's really the only reason I have you as solid town here.

Either way, my vote is VERY firmly planted. I don't see Grey as town. As said already, I see him as more likely VT who tired to get cute than cop here.

@Ircher - Explain the scum motivation for Gamma to claim what he did for me.

[Rainbowdash]

If you see him as VT, don't vote for him (unless that's not what you believe).

I don't think he is. I would say it something like 60% scum, 30% VT, 10% cop. More likely VT than cop, but more likely scum than anything else.

Again note how he basically ignores anything that is pushed against him. That is not what town does, that is scum who is afraid of town and wants it to just go away so hopes the speed of the game does that for him.

Also, RD should not have claimed FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS Ascetics should not.

I claimed so we could lynch Grey. If me revealing myself does that, we have created a situation where scum has to choose to kill the miller and ignore the other PRs, or leave other PRs alive to kill me. Either town gets further in the game or I eat a kill and help the rest of the town.

[Rainbowdash]

Me: I think he is lying about his role, here is why that is true and they are scum.
Grey: I am lying about my role, she is scum.

Seriously we need to lynch this. Grey tried to bail himself out with a claim and is now trying to do anything in his power to not have a confirmed town miller around.

Edit...

Ascetic(s) + Miller vs

x-shot

cop?

I DON'T FUCKING THINK SO

Ponyfeathers.

I specifically gave you that type of out BEFORE I claimed. Why do you think I said "Last chance to add anything"? Just incase you were trying to be cute as a more limited cop or were really VT. Now that you are caught you switch it up? No chance.

He dies now. HS can apparently die tomorrow.

[Rainbowdash]

Grey didn't switch anything up. Grey posted that he -was- leaving something out. His story is consistent start to finish.

No it isn't. Grey clearly implied that the missing piece of his role had some natural connection with another player - he specifically mentioned a counterpart. X-shot does not have a natural connection with another player, unless he is

still leaving things out

.

*ding ding ding*

What is the counterpart to a cop? Miller.
What is the counterpart to a X-Shot Cop? Still Miller.

Two X-Shot Cops is going to be a massively townsided setup because you get two N1 investigations. You can have a backup/deputy but why would he think im trying to counter with that?

Grey probably has me pegged as miller and is getting bailed out by HS here.

[Rainbowdash]

Real cop should still not be claiming here though. Worst case I get lynched, everypony hypo claims (If I was a cop I investigated X and got Y result) and then you quick lynch Grey tomorrow.

[Rainbowdash]

BECAUSE MILLER CLAIMS ARE SUCH A THREAT TO SCUM!

Sure is here.

You die here then what? Do your partners waste a shot on me or do they try to find the real cop? Busting a cop claim as a miller is probably a first though. Not sure ive seen this one done before.

Feels like a long time ago when I broke a setup so badly that town though I was scum.

[Rainbowdash]

Cop claims don't die d1 period, even if they're shitty claims.

Exactly why he is scum. He claims what he thinks is a 100% free pass.

Like I said, absolute worst case he is scum and I get lynched here. Real cop should probably target HS just incase they were town unlucky enough to accidently buy Grey and extra day.

[Rainbowdash]

Want to find scum? Start with those who have pushed for my lynch today after my claim.

And here come the intimidation attempts to try and keep votes off of him. Seriously how are these actions remotely town?

[Rainbowdash]

@Gamma

Because its improper play to claim as a miller in your first post. Meta that one me all you want, its the wrong move to claim miller in your first post.

You need to not only have a cop in the game but they also need to target you. Its far more of a risk, but by claiming miller you basically say to the scum "by the way there is a cop in this game". Even if you want to say both players survive two cycles, you are at about 80% chance not to be investigated. Especially in a large game, I think you can get away without a miller claim, even more if you leave some sort of a "Hey look at me, im a miller and this is a convenient breadcrumb" type post.

Why would I tell scum that there probably is a cop in the game in my first post to decrease a very small chance of being investigated to zero?

[Rainbowdash]

Here's the deal.
Claiming Miller first post means scum can't fakeclaim miller under cop investigation.

As I said: Risk reward.

Chances are low that any individual player will never hit a situation that they have to claim and a cop targets them. You balance a cop such that they will get about two investigations in a game before they die, meaning that any single player has at most a 1 in 6 chance of being targeted. I think my target rate is far below that for how often a cop runs into me, so im not going to claim miller in my first post. It simply is bad math to do so.

I would 100% prefer to end up looking town enough to not get targeted instead of tell scum "by the way im not a threat to you and there is a cop".

Seriously just play with an assumption that there is a cop (not always given with miller) and 13 players...

D1 there is only a 85% chance (at best) neither role gets ran up
N1 there is only a 78% chance both roles live (assuming town lynch) and a 9% chance cop hits miller
To note... that is already a 34% chance one of cop/miller have claimed or died
D2 82% chance that one claims/is lynched
N2 20% one dies (assume one scum is dead - otherwise 22%) and 10% chance cop hits miller

So basically... chance that cop and miller live to D3 is about 40%... compared to around 25% that cop targets miller

Yeah. Miller doesn't claim.

VOTE: Rainbowdash

Not buying the miller claim. Two negative-utility roles is unheard of in a mini normal, and I'm pretty sure RBD has been around long enough to know that. I think if she was really a miller, she'd have shown a

lot

more reservation about Gamma's ascetic enabler claim than she has.

Way too bizarre of a role for somepony to fabricate like that. Its real, even if Gamma is scum its real.

[Rainbowdash]

I want each player voting me to state that no matter WHAT Grey claims D2 you lynch him. If he claims a guilty. You lynch him. If he claims and inno. You lynch him. If he claims he got Ascetic. You lynch him.