STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[Reasonably Rational]

I actually know the answer to that question, in general at least(mastin should definitely check if her ability is special somehow, but I will warn you that she is definitely not above lying about how her role functions in order to manipulate town into taking the path she believes to be correct, ESPECIALLY if she's conftown and knows there is no downside to doing so).

Anyways, per Varsoon:

1) If an alliance is attempted with someone who dies in the night, no alliance is formed, and nobody receives any benefits from having an alliance.
2) If, after an alliance is established, a member dies, any bonuses the living member gained as a result of their own role as a benefit for being in an alliance remain, and any bonuses caused by the dead member of the alliance end.

Also, MoI, don't think I didn't forget your whole ultimatumlike declaration. I'll get to it when I'm home.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Mastin - Random told you that we were working with him and legitimately gamesolving when we were allied. Just because you choose to ignore that and instead praise Grapes for suggesting that I was "sucking his dick" and somehow that made him say we were working on solving the game doesn't mean he didn't tell you the reason. He did. You just chose to exclude it from your ranting. Just like when you tried to say our meta is different than it is, you pointed to very old games when there are more recent games that contradict your point. You cherry picked to try and prop it up. The moment you sacrificed legitimacy and started manipulating information, ignoring anything that conflicted with what you were pushing, etc... you threw away all the things that give you a reputation as a good player.

We have zero interest in humiliating you, but if you push us to it, I'm sure I can get Cerb to set aside some time if I go through your entire ISO today and pull out every point and lay it out point by point to be deconstructed. It will end up being a gigantic wall and even though it will completely deconstruct and point out how illogical and irrational you've been and it will serve no purpose but to just make you feel bad, as far as I can tell.

We can also do a complete evaluation of our slot and everything we've done, with as little bias as possible. It's impossible for anyone, no matter how practiced a rationalist, to completely remove bias, but we can scrub most of it by continuously viewing our slot as if it were someone else. Much like going through and dismantling your arguments against us point by point, it would be a lengthy exercise, and so far you have not given any indication that you will budge from your stance, even if we do take the time to address your points one by one AND lay out the totality of what we've done this game.

The bottom line, for us, is that we've worked every step of the way to the benefit of the town, from how we used our event (which we could simply have never mentioned or used if we were scum and which resulted in you getting a gunsmith guilty on TWIE) to working with Titus (check every game we've played with Titus to see how contentious that history is; the ship PT from Space Dandy 2 being a place to look if you want to see recent and the ugliest it ever got) because despite the friction and frustration in the past, her particular way of utilizing different roles in synergy is her greatest strength. There's a reason she concluded we were town (and hey, Shiro is back in the game and can confirm that Titus did indeed grill the SHIT out of us, permanently steal our alliance ability, and decided we were town because of how we claimed it and asked for her to help us amplify its use by having her organize things and misdirect so scum wouldn't realize what was going on). There's a reason that everyone we've worked with all game long concludes we're town.

And that brings me to the crux of things: there is no world in which we are the last scum (as you are suggesting) and can win. There's 3 slots that will never be lynched and we know (as does MoI, and sorry for outing this MoI but I don't think scum can turn it to their advantage) that MoI can ensure that he's the one alive in any kind of last day scenario. Like ... MoI isn't bullshitting when he says there's a 100% guaranteed path to a town win here. Even positing two scum, the only way I see for us to lose is something like what you're doing right now, frankly.

~Drixx

[Almost50]

Because farside was fucking unlynchable.

She may have been confirmed to you but not to me.

You know what? You're still persistent on your thoughts .. your theories .. your understanding to be correct all the time.

I -on the other hand- will always be a stubborn asshole in response to that notion in particular.

If farside was stll alive today I would not have lynched anyone bu her, not even if I was told grapes was guilty AND she got mod-confirmed in public. The same now applies to RR. I'm not lynching that slot even if Varsoon himself confirms that slot to be scum.

You keep pushing your agenda, and the harder you do the harder my stance is on the opposite direction. We're not children, but you seem to want to play it that way. OK, forget I'm Almost 50.. I'm now almost 5 years old, a brat, and a mule head. I go before RR goes.

[Almost50]

@Almost – regarding 11837 – I don’t care if it is on principle and a vote on scum – mastin has basically assured that grapes isn’t getting lynched. That means it is useless. Find another scum suspect to vote.

There is no other viable lynch. I just thought of something that makes it all fit now: grapes DID get shot by Sky. Only his role is that of a JUDAS. He gets shot and he converts alignment. Easy. That's when he joined the dark side. That's why TWIE made sure Sky's shot was mod-confirmed (if indeed that was the case).

[mastin2]

I can settle for the minor version by not giving you what you want today if I wanted to be vindictive.

Which still serves to be part of my plan. Not my primary plan, mind you, but the backup plan. A non-RR lynch today allows us to test two scum alive tomorrow by attempting to lynch grapes--grapes dies, we had two scum alive; grapes lives, we do not.

But the basis for your “I am confident there is only one scum” seems to be some sort of power analysis. I don’t see why else you come to that conclusion even with your magical MYLO LYLO powers.

The basis for my analysis comes from a combination of SIMPLE SETUP DESIGN (running the numbers, that being, how many neutrals we have compared to town compared to scum), flavor speculation (there being five rubies plus an outside Jasper = five scum plus a traitor), and also, POE. What combination exists as a viable two-man scumteam? But yes, also mechanics analysis. Beyond setup design, mechanics design suggests only one scum left. Literally everything paints the picture of one scum left: flavor, general game design (would you, in ANY OTHER 25-PLAYER GAME, assume 7 scum?), mechanics, reads. Plus general gut. It "feels" right. It seems right. So I am assuming, until given evidence to the contrary, it is right.

The one hole in your logic that I see that I want you to absolutely check with Varsoon on – confirming you have to be alive for your MYLO / LYLO powers to work for your alliance member.

No need. I know this already. If a player dies during the night, alliances with them fail. You'll recall I allied with Not Chara and McMenno the nights they died. The following days, I did not have my alliance power active, so I know you can't ally with a nightkill. With a lynch, sure, yeah, your power will work if your ally was lynched. But given that I'm confirmed town, presumably, that won't be a problem. Soyeah. Killing me kills my alliance, meaning I MUST live to use it.

Because an easy way to blow a hole in the scenarios I’ve run if for you to die tonight and thus not being able to confirm grapes tomorrow via MYLO / LYLO.

Then you manually lynch grapes anyway and you'll have your answer upon grapes's flip.

We (attempt to) lynch grapes no matter the outcome of today, if the game has a tomorrow. I figured that was a given. Am I wrong? 'Cause I'm pretty sure you said it yourself: the only way for there to be two scum is if grapes is among them. So if tomorrow is mylo, we lynch grapes and know there was a second scum. If I die, you...lynch grapes, and grapes's flip will tell you whether there were one or two scum remaining. The game continuing tells you that there's at least one.

I'm pretty sure there's no glaring hole in this.

[mastin2]

We have zero interest in humiliating you, but if you push us to it, I'm sure I can get Cerb to set aside some time if I go through your entire ISO today and pull out every point and lay it out point by point to be deconstructed.

Yeah that's the thing though.

You've been doing nothing but this already.
You've been throwing insult after insult my way.
You did so in this very fucking post in the paragraph above which I deleted.
Time and time again, you're forming excuses. You're shutting me down. And you're avoiding the question I asked for. I specifically told you not to post obsolete game solving. You did so anyway. I asked for a comprehensive plan from you after your "mis"lynch, to deal with every variable, something you should specialize.
And your attempts to shut this request down by pointing out that I have no plan are another dodge of exactly that.

I am not you.
It makes sense for me to not have a perfect plan. I have one plan, and one plan only. I don't know what to do when my one plan goes wrong.
But YOU are defined by making plans. You SHOULD be able to honor that simple request, and have it be a fucking simple request.

Yet instead of spending a small morsel of your time and effort to leave something after you die. Instead of trying to create a lockdown after you have been removed from the game.
You keep on spending time and effort trying to survive. To shut me down. To get people to not vote you.

You are showing survivalism, rather than showing interest in leaving a legacy after you die. You are attempting to stop your death, rather than attempting to win the game. Simple "lynch in this order" doesn't cut it, especially given that it could potentially be impossible to lynch grapes tomorrow if tomorrow isn't mylo and I live and my alliance with grapes is not broken. I asked for a comprehensive plan. Not a single line easily open to interpretation.

Your whole post here. The whole fucking thing. Is saying, "we are here to show why we should not be lynched". Not showing "we are here to show what the possible paths to victory are". And including in those paths your lynch. Sure, you could give paths to victory which don't involve your death today...but you haven't done even that much! None of it.

You bitch and moan. You say you have done these grand, wondrous things. Yet you aren't actually DOING those grand, wondrous things. You say you've gamesolved. I don't even want at this point proof from you of having done it in the past. (Even though I would like to point out it doesn't exist out in the open.) I want it shown from you RIGHT IN THE FUCKING NOW, and in spite of my CONTINUED requests to show this...you have not.

And that's why you are scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well you are wrong Mastin in that not lynching grapes today as Town turns a sure win into a 50 50 LYLO.

Don't see that? Redo your analysis then.

[Reasonably Rational]

We have zero interest in humiliating you, but if you push us to it, I'm sure I can get Cerb to set aside some time if I go through your entire ISO today and pull out every point and lay it out point by point to be deconstructed.

Yeah that's the thing though.

You've been doing nothing but this already.
You've been throwing insult after insult my way.
You did so in this very fucking post in the paragraph above which I deleted.
Time and time again, you're forming excuses. You're shutting me down. And you're avoiding the question I asked for. I specifically told you not to post obsolete game solving. You did so anyway. I asked for a comprehensive plan from you after your "mis"lynch, to deal with every variable, something you should specialize.
And your attempts to shut this request down by pointing out that I have no plan are another dodge of exactly that.

I am not you.
It makes sense for me to not have a perfect plan. I have one plan, and one plan only. I don't know what to do when my one plan goes wrong.
But YOU are defined by making plans. You SHOULD be able to honor that simple request, and have it be a fucking simple request.

Yet instead of spending a small morsel of your time and effort to leave something after you die. Instead of trying to create a lockdown after you have been removed from the game.
You keep on spending time and effort trying to survive. To shut me down. To get people to not vote you.

You are showing survivalism, rather than showing interest in leaving a legacy after you die. You are attempting to stop your death, rather than attempting to win the game. Simple "lynch in this order" doesn't cut it, especially given that it could potentially be impossible to lynch grapes tomorrow if tomorrow isn't mylo and I live and my alliance with grapes is not broken. I asked for a comprehensive plan. Not a single line easily open to interpretation.

Your whole post here. The whole fucking thing. Is saying, "we are here to show why we should not be lynched". Not showing "we are here to show what the possible paths to victory are". And including in those paths your lynch. Sure, you could give paths to victory which don't involve your death today...but you haven't done even that much! None of it.

You bitch and moan. You say you have done these grand, wondrous things. Yet you aren't actually DOING those grand, wondrous things. You say you've gamesolved. I don't even want at this point proof from you of having done it in the past. (Even though I would like to point out it doesn't exist out in the open.) I want it shown from you RIGHT IN THE FUCKING NOW, and in spite of my CONTINUED requests to show this...you have not.

And that's why you are scum.

...

Did you read my last post?

That is, the last post from Cerb?

That post tells town what order to lynch in.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

On a non game related note: Merry Christmas all.

And now, back to our regularly scheduled argument:
And umm... thanks for illustrating my point that you are only paying attention selectively Mastin. We couldn't have possibly pointed it out any better than you did yourself by begging for something we already gave you.

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Headed 900 miles South.

V/LA this head until January 3rd, 2017

See you all next year,

~Drixx

[grapes]

Hey guys.
Hope you're all having a good holiday.
This is a long one so buckle up and enjoy some music while you read!





Like the nerd I am I spent time thinking about games over the last few days while spending time with the family (overrated imo). Had some time today after stuff settled down and decided to really sit down and take a hard look at things because something just didn't feel right. Might have had something to do with my achieving lynch-threshold, which by the by, really puts it in perspective let me tell ya.

First thing's first.

There might be another leftover.

And I know I've been skeptical of the speculation around that but you all will understand it was mostly due to the blind wave of head nods that it must be Lapis from the majority of you. Like when you're getting runup strictly because of your flavor-claim the idea is going to immediately repulse you especially if you're someone like me. I think that was close-minded and selfish of me and considering I have more than one overwhelmingly strong scumread, certain slots insisting strongly that there is one based on hot air and thinking that 6 scum is iffy on balance upon reflection ... we may in fact have two scumbummies still out there.

But more importantly.

It's a very bad assumption to think that this leftover wouldn't be given a fakeclaim if it can align with the threats to Earth. Sure, Xk and the rest of the crystal gems weren't given them ...

but they're not scum

. They're actually an experiment put into the game to test Earth's sanity, humanity and faith. (That or they're running an absolutely epic gambit.) In other words this game is an allegory for the meeting of humans and space aliens and the paranoia that would bring about. If the mod gave fakeclaims to the gems that's essentially telling us to lynch through them because they have something to hide. Much to the reverse of the reds who have everything to hide.


A better question to ask is: who fits as a leftover ... based on role?

Killing role maybe? A role similar to Xk's?

And what about play?

Well we can assume that they weren't given the names of the scumteam from the start otherwise the idea behind being a leftover (that they choose whether or not to join their respective faction after a certain point) loses all meaning and sorta breaks the game.

How about someone with a large contrast in tone, engagement, reads and interaction with scum from the beginning of the game up until a certain point?

I can think of one person who fits the first question quite easily.
I can think of another person who fits the second question with flying colors.

But let's hold off on that for a minute and do a little PoE.

---

Confirmed Earth:

grapes
mastin2

Confirmed Gems:

MagnaofIllusion
randomidget

The Rest:

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1)
Shiro (2)
Almost50 (3)
Reasonably Rational (4)

-1-

What fuzzy has going for him is his confirmed vig-shot. The fact that the gems didn't have an opportunity to bubble farside. Counterclaiming TWIE. Outstanding voting record (as he likes to remind us). And some relatively believable AtE recently (which I'm an absolute sucker for).

What he has going against him is some very questionable interaction with scum in a few spots. Bad play around his role (shooting outside the gem/mastin consensus last night -- which I'm going to forgive because RR probably begged him to shoot there). And what's more is that he kinda fits in my head with what I would

expect

the scum leftover to look like on role. Key word there is expect.

-2-

Don't have a good reason to call shiro town.

I have a lot of reasons to call shiro scum and even more reason to think he may be a leftover.

-3-

Almost is a guy who I've been overlooking a lot of the game. Glossing over his posts for the most part. In fact the first time I clicked iso on him was just the other day because his death tunnel on me is to the point of ridiculousness and I thought "could the emu actually be that bad". Which is why I've been forgiving to his eccentric bullshit for the most part, thought he was just tremendously horrible. Probably a bad assumption.

He doesn't work as a leftover because his tone, reads (certain ones) and engagement has stayed relatively consistent throughout the game. And what's more has an incredibly scummy Day 1.

-4-

I'll keep this one short. They're probably Town.

You can push them all day for death-tunneling farside. Sabotaging what would have been an auto-win. Flailing all over the thread. Their wagon on both day 1 and 2 resembling a wagon on scum but at the end of the day maybe scum were resigned to NKing them or just letting them push mislynches through the whole game before varsoon even unlocked the thread. Engagement-wise they stand above the entire pool. Burdening them with proficiency isn't a great idea especially if we're talking about hunting for scum (and even then they have had sparks of okay reads throughout the game). I was paranoid and put out about farside claiming a third party win-condition myself somewhat. We've all had games stolen from us and that's a feeling that never goes away.

Their play and reads from day 1 carrying over into day 2 and then so on and so forth don't line up with what I'd expect to find in a leftover. And like I said before their engagement has been very consistent regardless.

So trimming it down:

Possible leftovers: Fuzzy, Shiro.
Possible scum: RR, Fuzzy, Almost50.

RR and Fuzzy are more town by play than Almost no contest.
Fuzzy doesn't really work as a scumbuddy for either of them (particularly on recent days).

Leaving us with Almost50 as scum and Shiro as the potential leftover scum.

Now I know what you're all thinking.

"grapes what the fuck are you on about?"

Just bear with me.

---

I'm going to start with an iso of Shiro's early game.

>

Nothing but fluff and setting up an alliance with firebringer for the first 15 posts.
Forgivable because ... most people didn't really scumhunt at all until the game actually began.

>

First push he makes is on Almost:

Varsoon

Can you confirm Almost50 is town?

??? Are.. are you claiming .. the LIE DETECTOR??!!!!!! GAWD, I hope NOT! I mean, what's with people crumbing and/or outright claiming in a game we've been explicitly warned against doing so??
Hell, even if you had a death wish, wouldn't it have been better for you to wait a few RL days to see who would vote you/me and for what reasons before you outed yourself, and confirmed me in the process???
On the other hand, if this is another one of those tricks, do you realize how scummy it makes you look??

This seems fake as fuck.

And I'm going to call this a solid observation. ^

Almost is reaching incredibly hard to twist creature's post as him claiming to be the lie detector first off. What's more the lamist 'why wouldn't you wait to confirm me' comes off as forced.

>

Following up the push he calls out Almost on a scummy contradiction in 1937.
Almost says that his Not Chara vote at first was a sheep, but then later on says that he's scumreading Not Chara.
Pretty decent scumhunting.

>

1949 -

"Why the fuck would town reveal who they think the lie detector is."

Feels genuine and is actually a solid observation.

>

Moving further on he continues the push on almost and it's a real-time back and forth with omgus on both sides.
Shiro looks better because his push actually has merit.

>

Finally kinda comes out of his tunnel with a scumread on KTS in 2271 but it's naked.

>

Votes cakes in 2295
Doesn't look like a bus because it was done in a preview edit with more focus on posting an adorable anime picture.

>

Continues tunnel on A50 until 2426 where he finally gives some more reads.
Feels like a townish off the cuff post. Now has mcmenno as a scumread as well. What's notable is that his vote is on sircakez but doesn't mention him in his reads. Kinda feel like scum are more likely to remember that they're voting a buddy.

Day 2 starts -- things start to get interesting.

>

3299 & 3307
Asks mastin and titus why they're both townreading Almost50. The thread's loudest voices. This gets important later.

>

3346
The farside scumread is intertwined to his almost scumread when it wasn't before.

>

3373
Is actually a solid case. But he's not voting almost at all today.

>

And then on to this:

ok it just hit me and my mind did a 180

I am an idiot almost is possibly town

@Almost
Ally with me.

Hmm.

tl;dr

- Push on almost is kinda town. Engagement is good. Stuff looks off the cuff. Then weird asf turnaround on A50 a short way into Day 2 in conjunction with asking exclusively confirmed-town why they're townreading him basically at Daystart looks more like checking if the coast is clear rather than genuine inquiry. Because the timing of his realization of Almost being town couldn't have come about for any special reason that wasn't there before. This is notable because of an answer to a question I ask him later on.

---

Let's take a break from shiro for now and go into Almost50's Day 1.

>

Mostly fluff, talking about how there's people he can't read in the game and alliances in the first 10 or so posts.

>

First thing that resembles scumhunting is throwing shade on mastin in 347 for misreading her role pm.

>

515
This is interesting. Accepts cakes' request to ally. Very over-worded and carried over into a separate post in 517 no less.
But the line

"in the majority of games we were of opposite alignments"

is a potential scumslip.

>

648
Bit of an overreaction to a simple question.

>

794
Bad question.

>

890
Bad vote because he earlier had given me the impression (based on the overreaction to chara's question) that he was scumreading it. Now he's absolving himself of responsibility for the vote by calling it a sheep and calling himself opportunistic is scummy too.

>

891
Nitpicking a bit here but the line

"I have never voiced my suspicion of them either"

is once again disingenuous because that implies you had suspicion to begin with. When he already said that he didn't.

"Come on people put some pressure on me"

is also bad.

>

984
Quotes snarky's early vote on sircakes. It's fair for a50 to say that snarky pushing on cakes for having different reads is iffy. But it's also a subtle chainsaw of cakes when we look closer. Like, he says that snarky has strange reads too but goes out of his way to have a conversation with snarky about all of his reads but his cakes read which is odd considering Almost initially found this post notable for snarky 'also having strange reads' implying he didn't understand his read on cakes.

>

988
This post.

Creature's a young gun and almost looks to be trying to put pressure on a soft target for something that doesn't make sense. Nowhere in creature's post could anything be gathered that he was the lie-detector.

The line

"do you realize how scummy this makes you look"

is disgusting hedge (and also feels like he knows creature is town for that matter) and if we assume almost is bad enough to think that this was a lie detector crumb. It makes this post pretty blatantly manipulative and fishing for creature to out if he in fact is that role.

>

1081
Scumpost. He's focusing way too much on who he thinks the lie detector is and admitted in the post before this that he does have reads. It's pretty terrible that it was a vague -I've got a lot of townreads and no scumreads- and I'm kicking myself for letting him get away with such a lame response when the thread was at a 4 digit post-count.

>

1418
Offers to ally with me.
Segways awkwardly into a townread on cakes ... says he thought he was town because he offered to ally with him (doesn't really make any sense) and that now he's unsure because the private topic isn't very active. We'll call this part fair.

Note that there's been essentially -no- scumhunting up until this point.

>

1643
This looks like some awkward distancing because instead of confirming what cakes is saying (like he asked him to) he instead coaches him on how to talk in thread about things pertaining to their hood.

>

1676
Scummy asf.

>

Something tangible to dissect finally:

{

mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Yume, Farside22,

} << As good as mod-confirmed Town
{

killthestory, Firebringer, grapes,

} << Strong Town
{

Foxbird, Skybird,

} << Town
{

Sir Cakez, Xkyfu, CooLDoG, Reasonably Rational, McMenno,

} << Town Lean
{

SnarkySnowman,

} << Null-Town
{

Klingoncelt, Shiro, DrippingGoofball, randomidget, TheWayItEnds,

} << Null
{

Seraphim, Creature,

} << Null-Scum
{

Not Chara, kraskaesque,

} << Scum Lean
{

Nobody

} << Scum
{

Nobody

} << Strong Scum

Most of these reads don't make any sense. Fox and sky both being in their own bracket of town makes me squint. Town-lean on Xk when he hadn't posted any content yet makes no sense and there's cogdis displayed in the end of this post where he barks for people to provide real content.

But above all having scum and strong scum tiers with no players in them just hedges the list entirely.

>

1695
Bad vote on mcmenno (who he was previously townreading).

>

Note the contrast in replies in posts 1858 & 1859.
Appeases the fuck out of titus with an entire three paragraphs.
Quick, barely-a-response to Foxbird asking him about his read on Xk.

>

1861
Baaaaaad post.

>

2120
Stillllllll dodging why he's townreading the birds and Xk. Thinking those reads might've been bullshited at this point.

>

Mastina and I both want Cakey. Sheepy?

Let's just wait and see who else is going to join the wagon.

Tim Allen's Career.

tl;dr

- Almost was a scumfuck Day 1 and remains a scumfuck now.

---

Let's get back to our boy shiro for a moment.

>

We'll begin here:

@Grapes
I didn't pick almost, I legitimately believed he was scum. My mind changed mostly to, I won't lie, mechanics and flavour, hate me for that if you want.

Whoever said grapes doesn't ask good questions! This is what I was referring to before. He's lying here because between the point Day 2 started and his turnaround, Almost hadn't claimed flavor and nothing mechanical changed about his slot either.

>

I'm gonna chill a bit with the pbpa for the rest of page 1 of shiros iso because the scumhunting ... really tapers off to just reaction gifs flavor speculation and an omgus war with farside.

>

Oh actually wait up there's a readslist in 4248.
Right off the bat there's quite a few names missing here to my eye. Notably: TWIE, Foxbird, Fuzzy and probably some others.
Reasoning all sucks. Like there's not a lot of substance here which when you account for the size of the post; I'm squinting pretty hard at this.

The scumreads are all bad and opportunistic. Killthestory read in particular doesn't make any sense as an example it's just

"I didn't buy the IC claim"

-- clearly. And

"here's some meta where he was different in another game."

I could dissect this post into an entire wall but I'll spare you all that. Kudos btw to whoever's still reading this. : D

Page 2 of Shiros iso

... I want you guys to read it yourselves. There isn't any scumhunting. I could quote all the posts and just say "fluff" or "bad post" but the proof is in the pudding.

>

Here's the important ones:

I believe that scum fake claims and role don't match as well as towns does

:/

Fire, stop not caring damn it D: Leave yume alone, she is obv town.

Shiro if you want to maintain our friendship never talk about Yume to me again.
Now are you interested in joining sky wagon.

No, mainly because sky is mechanically cleared.

:/ :/ :/

Almost Scum
Farside – I felt she was town in our PT. The things putting her here instead of the next level up is the stubbornness and game play like blowing up the Joy Ride and the weird claim. I’m not opposed to lynching her but would rather lynch from my scum pool right now.

Weren't you strongyly townreading her ?

Why in hell's kitchen does shiro's only decent question in all these posts look like blatant distancing?
Didn't he think skybird was confirmed-town?

Explain your Almost50 townread.

Nope.

...

I had no ally tonight ) :

Also I kind of eeeh forgot to vote for the event hehe ^_^;

Dear Barbara.

Question though Math, You honestly think I bussed almost but then dropped it and now instead of safely staying on you, I am bussing DgB ?

This speaks for itself.

People are just wasting time on her wagon. Now Dgb on the other hand who steals votes. Now that is a scummy role.

The one correct scumread shiro pushed consistently was DGB. And his reasoning wasn't that she

claimed scum

it was because her role was scummy.

tl;dr

- Shiro made at least one good push day 1 and looked relatively town in some spots. But mysteriously turned around on that push because of ... flavor? And then never scumhunts again. Starts making scumpost after scumpost after scumpost. If there's a red leftover it's shiro.

---

What we're looking at here ladies and gentleman is a climb. The above is mostly how I arrived where I'm at right now after isoing everyone in the game including the gems. There's a few other things I'll talk about once I get answers to a couple questions below. But needless to say I don't think it's a coincidence that the player who I believe is most likely to be scum and the player who fits the vein of a leftover who sides with scum after day 1 have such an odd dynamic with each other.

Mastin

, appreciate the epic white-knight but let's calm down a bit here. Your death-tunnel on RR is bad for the game. Clear your head and come back after you've digested some of the things I've brought up and let's have a conversation not a lecture. Currently your order of RR>Grapes in the event that there's a scum leftover means that town loses the game.

Magna

, we need to remember that scum fakeclaims in this game go beyond just a safe name to claim. Scum were given events tied specifically to their fakeclaims. In other words varsoon went out of his way HARD to make this unbreakable by flavor and after some research, yea I can see why out of the flavor claims why mine might fit the most easily but here's the catch; I'm town. And assuming once I flip town that there's only 1 scum left is going to lose town the game.

They don't call me grapes just because I'm a fruit. I also enjoy fine flavor. I've seen this shit happen time and time again. I'm sick to death of people trying to game shit by flavor and even sicker of bad setups broken by it because it creates a vicious cycle of unenjoyable experiences and brings down mafia as a whole. You want proof? I was scum in a game where people wrote off my scum-buddy based on a flavorclaim because there was a fruit vendor action tied to their fakeclaim. I cited the OP saying that scum were given fruit vendors tied to their fakes and proceeded to bus my partner into the dirt. Now to be fair, there was a role that confirmed there was scum within a pool of three players, my buddy and two town mason-lovers. So my bus was half on principle and half strategic considering frog was getting lynched the next day no matter what and there was already enough traction on the masons to get a lynch

just based on flavor-spec

(one of the few scenarios where I'd ever bus). Point being I hate when people try and game flavor. Which is why I blew up at you.

Let's say we massclaimed our flavor and lynched through the obvscum ones and we were right every time and won. That'd feel empty to me not sure about you. That isn't playing mafia and varsoon understands that it's one of the reasons why I enjoy playing his games. Think about it.

Cerb

, please get your head back into the game. I know that we've had our differences and I've thought you were scum all game and I can only imagine what getting death tunneled by mastin feels like. But try and not focus on that and focus on helping me lynch scum. I know that you and drixx really want a win here and so do I. Your PoE is wrong and I can show you why but I don't want to tell you why. I want to have a conversation.

Fuzzy

, if you're town bud please. Calm down and understand that tensions are high and there's enough ego in this thread to build a city. If at any point you thought that someone was talking down to you don't because I've played with all these guys at least a few times they're all okay. We just happen to all be old nerds taking a cops and robbers game on the internet based on a children's tv show a bit more seriously than we should be. I for one think that since my first newbie game here (you probably don't even remember that game) you've grown into a fine mafia player despite what your alignment is here. One thing that I'll say no matter how this turns out is try to keep better track of your role and stuff especially if you're town because goddamn it's so easy to scumread you bro and you've got a confirmed vig-shot.

random

, I get that you're above putting too much effort into games. I get that 'try-hards' like me probably are the bane of your existence. I get that you must care somewhat or you would have replaced out by now. I say shit I don't mean when I'm pissed. I don't think you're all too bad a player it's just lurksacks infuriate me to no end and your vote on me sucked and you know it. We are polar opposites and probably always will be. Lend me an ear and let me know what you think of my stuff the tl;dr's were put in with you in mind.

Shiro

, why do you think fuzzy is scum? Why do you think that mastin could be a leftover?

Almost

, you sir are a phenomenal bullshitter and I'll never underestimate you again. How on Earth do you suppose that I'm a scum-leftover-judas given that we've seen what the leftover wincon is and how one functioned already? Why were you skeptical of magna's flavor spec? Why do you think shiro is scum?

---

It begins.

VOTE: Almost50

[Shiro]

@Grapes I think mastin is leftover because it fits from every flavor prespective also town is earth humans which a corrupted gem doesnt fit at all. She just makes sense as neutra lsurvivor.

As for fuzzy, I have explained why I believe his actions are scummy. Unless someone is hard framing him for like forver, All of his actions make sense only from scum prespective.

Not shooting shadow, not shooting during the even were scum cannot use action,killing farside who as vig makes no sesne while as scum makes the best kill option. His sudden epiphany that gems might be mafia mason and that we should lynch in the gem party(somethin gonly useful to scum that NEED a lynch other than humans to win in a 4 way with 2 gems) I still dont get why people are seeing it.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

That time to clear my head was great.......
Ok before I jump back into this game like a crazy man jumps into jello I just wanted to say I hope every one had a wonderful and blessed Christmas. I hope that you all had a great , wonderful and memorable time with those who matter most to you
only 364 more days officially to Christmas cant wait,,,,,,but remember you can make it Christmas every day and not just one day,

Mow time for some jello divingin

3
2
1

and we are baack

[TheFuzzylogic99]

@Shiro
I think you are wrong about Mastin..... I don't think we can trust flavor too much.

1) I did not kill Shadow bc RR had a plan and for some reason I went along with it. Can you explain why you are giving me heat about not killing Shadow and killing Far whos were both plans of RR. Okay I get why you might think I am scum for those things what I don't get is why you not giving RR a bit more heat about those things as it was their plans. I am trying to figure out the logic here, Help me out here please.....If you want to lynch me for those things fine..I will gladly eat ropes for my mistakes but can you tell me why I should eat rope and RR should not,

2) If I remember the event was the same night I was suppose to shoot shadow... see above. I want to add that since I have a sure no miss at +3 and season Finale I like to wait till then to make my kills as I know I can hit something. Call it a comfort zone if you wish

3) I don't understand why you cant see the possibilities that a gem could be scum. You seem to be sure Gems are conftown......Can you tell me why? Also why it is not possible that a townie would absolutely not think a gem could be scum and only a this is only a scum mindset
to try to lynch Gem I am trying to follow your logic, For all you know I might just be a paranoid town with bad logic.

BTW I am not voting Shiro at all unless there has been a scum flip and the game does not end

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
@ Grapes
No offense taken..... I just got caught up emotionally in the game and let my feelings take control instead of my logic. I can be very logical but equally emotional . Its funny and frustrating. And yes it easy to scum read my that's why I am the #1 lynchabit of this site

I think you might be right about the Gems skating through the game especially Random.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All I know is
a) I am town
b) I am a vig
c) that there are atleast two days that scum did not make a kill. Maybe more

this means that one of the following is true
a) scum are missing taking shots( They have been too busy or been forgetting)
b) scum are choosing not to take shots as a strategy
c) scum have been RB
d) a combination of the above

[Almost50]

VOTE: Almost50

I'm very much FOR this, btw. If you're not today's lynch then I should be. I have nothing more to offer and I doubt the game will reach the 3rd Season Finale, so I have no night action to benefit the Town.

Furthermore, I'm not an established analyst, and I sure am not a good case-constructor. In fact, making detailed cases with convincing logic and outspoken language has always been one of my weakest sides. I can scum-hunt, but I cannot easily get people to see what I see.

So, I would be happy to eat the rope today, and watch how the rest of the game goes from the dead thread.

@MoI:

PLEASE, do consider bubbling Mastina tonight. That's seems like the ONLY way left to lynch grapes tomorrow. He is very much in control now with her sheltering him, and it IS going to cost us the game. Don't say I didn't explicitly say this here and now as my last tip going out with my last breath.

[Randomnamechange]

random

, I get that you're above putting too much effort into games. I get that 'try-hards' like me probably are the bane of your existence. I get that you must care somewhat or you would have replaced out by now. I say shit I don't mean when I'm pissed. I don't think you're all too bad a player it's just lurksacks infuriate me to no end and your vote on me sucked and you know it. We are polar opposites and probably always will be. Lend me an ear and let me know what you think of my stuff the tl;dr's were put in with you in mind.

its k man. I read everything. I just don't post a lot. It doesn't mean I'm not aware of what is going on. RR can confirm this from games like Bloodborne. I can definitely follow your logic and it is a pretty solid argument. Almost is one of those players that I feel like i missed a post that made them obv town or something. He kinda reminds me of soccer spirits him here. The one thing is that I definitely feel that Shiro has a point about mastin. Far also had some questions about mastin's alignment btw (in our alliance PT) gtg now but gonna give some more thoughts today or tomorrow depending on how much time i have

[mastin2]

Well you are wrong Mastin in that not lynching grapes today as Town turns a sure win into a 50 50 LYLO. Don't see that? Redo your analysis then.

There are, if two scum, five candidates for it: Almost50, Reasonably Rational, grapes (guaranteed to be one if there are two left), Shiro, and Thefuzzylogic.
No matter what, there isn't a surefire win. RR ensured that when the shot was directed towards farside instead of within this grouping.

So from there, we have to work on assumptions.
We are both fine assuming that no matter what, Almost50 is town--correct me if I am wrong there. So we are willing to gamble the game on him being town. But it IS exactly that: a gamble, not a given.

That still leaves four names, for three days.
You are fine clearing RR if grapes is scum--I, however, am not convinced of this. A townflip from grapes will ensure Shiro is town, giving us a lockdown IF we can guarantee Almost50 lives and we are both okay with the assumption he is town: lynch RR/Fuzzy, then the other.
A scumflip from grapes, however, gives us three candidates for two lynches. You remove RR from the pool. I vehemently disagree with that conclusion. It remains completely unsafe to make that assumption. It is also predicated on a scenario I don't see as likely. (That being, grapes flipping scum, but I'll go on about that in a bit.)

But. Agreeing to disagree here, for the sake of argument. Say you don't give a damn about my stance on RR, I die, you don't, so you get the final word on the lynches. There's nothing stopping you from lynching Fuzzy today, and testing for lylo tomorrow if you're so concerned about that win. When I die, then you can lynch grapes, and if grapes flips scum, then you can lynch Shiro too. No problems at all. Like I said, I am not demanding RR's death today. Simply...strongly recommending it.

As for why I don't think it's grapes.
If grapes is the last scum, then grapes is Army, NOT Lapis Lazuli. Lapis Lazuli would in fact be grapes's safeclaim. And that's a pretty shitty safeclaim. Why? Because of exactly why you want to lynch grapes in the first place--third party speculation, because surely if anyone fits the bill for third party it would be Lapis Lazuli! So from where I stand, if the setup has only one scum left, it CANNOT be grapes.

I also don't buy the bullshit of grapes being a second scum. And I'll tell you why. Because I'm sick and tired of all the bullshit violations of occam's razor. Assuming two scum left is assuming there is an unknown variable to "justify" making sub-optimal plays on the account of paranoia. When we have going for us:
-STRONG flavor reasons to believe only one scum left
-STRONG balance reasons to believe only one scum left
-STRONG mechanical reasons to believe only one scum left
-And decent play reasons to believe only one scum left.

For that reason, I am willing to risk the game on grapes not being scum. You are not, sure, fine. But as long as I live, I am.
I am of course willing to humor you--to test the theory of two scum tomorrow, via the usage of my ability. Grapes dies, there were two scum; grapes lives, there is only one. But at this point...
-Unless two scum is proven, I am NOT lynching Shiro.
-Unless there are two scum, I am NOT lynching grapes.
-I am willing to risk the game on Almost50 being town if you are.
-So that leaves me with Thefuzzylogic and Reasonably Rational as possibilities for scum, barring other evidence.

[mastin2]

Did you read my last post? That is, the last post from Cerb?

Oh you mean this?

To answer you about your insistence that we lay out a plan for the future(when you yourself HAVE NO SUCH FUCKING PLAN(which is primarily relevant in that this is essentially the same plea being made by you, that is "listen to us today because this is absolutely what we feel is the path most likely to lead to victory, and if we're wrong we have no idea how we should proceed"):
This is what we told A50 and TFL last night, and this is where we're at, because there is compelling evidence against any of A50, Shiro, and TFL as scum(while NO SUCH EVIDENCE EXISTS FOR grapes!town)
[-snip-]
In order of "strength of evidence indicating they are not scum": mastin>gems>A50=Shiro>TFL>grapes. In other words, you lynch in the reverse of this order.
It's arguable that Shiro should be lower, primarily because the bubbling clear is conditional on only one scum existing, and the other reasons to believe him to be town rely upon him actually keeping up with a PT between Titus and us, which is far from guaranteed; however, the simple fact that shiro currently possesses a "if we get to 4 left alive without having lynched any more scum and the game is still going, shiro is definitely town" ability means coupled with the other reasons to posit him as town, he should be far from a potential lynchee.

Yeah, I explicitly reference this.

I specifically told you not to post obsolete game solving

. You did so anyway. I asked for a comprehensive plan from you after your "mis"lynch, to deal with every variable, something you should specialize.

And your attempts to shut this request down by pointing out that I have no plan are another dodge of exactly that.

You are showing survivalism, rather than showing interest in leaving a legacy after you die. You are attempting to stop your death, rather than attempting to win the game.

Simple "lynch in this order" doesn't cut it

, especially given that it could potentially be impossible to lynch grapes tomorrow if tomorrow isn't mylo and I live and my alliance with grapes is not broken. I asked for a comprehensive plan.

Not a single line easily open to interpretation.

I asked for gamesolving and CURRENT ANALYSIS. Not for you to fucking quote obsolete thoughts from yesterday and a single line which really doesn't cut it for plans.

I've seen you lay out your plans before. You write big-ass huge long paragraphs detailing each aspect of the plan and why it is the right course of action. A single line (with barely a paragraph of clarification) is nothing of the sort.

[mastin2]

Sabotaging what would have been an auto-win.

The thing is.
And this is the big fucking thing.
You need no other point about Reasonably Rational.
This, and this alone, are reason enough for them to be scum.
They have tried making excuse after excuse, justification after justification for it.
They have let the blame be shift off of them, via Fuzzy and Almost50.
They have insisted that they weren't responsible, that it was Fuzzy's shot, that they weren't the ones which did it.

But the simple fact is.
They did exactly that: sabotage what would have been an auto-win.

And their excuse? Setup speculation--something they specialize at--which was proven

wrong

. Time and time again. They insisted that farside was a liar...except, everything she claimed was 100% entirely true. They claimed farside was a threat. Yet, she absolutely was not. They directed a shot at farside, who scum COULD NOT GET RID OF, and kept the shot from landing on someone the town needed gone.

If I had no other reason to lynch RR.
That reason alone would justify it.

Because them sabotaging an auto-win is SO out of character for their towngame, I cannot, fundamentally

cannot

accept that it is possible they would act in suck a reckless, selfish egocentric way which runs counter to the very foundation of their principles.

Also would just like to point out: this grapes post is absolutely the last thing grapes would do if grapes were scum. It is literally alienating the rest of the town and going down a path, a battle, a fight which CANNOT be won. Because while grapes has my support to not lynch him, grapes will NEVER get my support to lynch either of Almost50 or Shiro. This is town crazy. It's crazy, yes. But it is town crazy all the same.

[mastin2]

1) I did not kill Shadow bc RR had a plan and for some reason I went along with it.

Gee I wonder who that plan benefited?

OH YEAH.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

As I said I deserve to die for following dumb town plans instead of going on my own instinct.....if yall want to lynch me that's okay

[mastin2]

Like.
Shit you not.
Before logging in and reading, my thoughts were devoted to thinking about how many ways I could be wrong.
I was wavering back and forth, thinking about every which variable here and there and just how much I could be mistaken about it all.

And then I actually read the damn thread.
And all that doubt, all that paranoia, vanished in mere seconds.

There's more to grapes's post than the actions within. There's also how grapes was addressing people and talking to them and trying to make the push. It wasn't just a blind case. It wasn't a presentation. It wasn't an appeal for survival. It wasn't effort for the sake of survivalism. (For that, see: RR's posting.) It wasn't effort done with the confidence of knowing that he won't die, either. It was not fluff, posting for the sake of posting. There was real thought put in. There were some real things in there, real analysis, and it simply is NOT something I see coming from scum. Not like that.

Almost50, I've seen him as scum and I've seen him as town. I'm basically convinced this is his town game. I really, really don't think Almost50 goes about posting as he has if he is scum. The way he invited his own death was incredibly sincere, in contrast with RR's way which was false bravado. He leaks genuine emotion. His posting is a pain in the ass to deal with. It'd be tempting to, in my frustration, write him off as scum because of it, hiding behind his pride (and yes that's the main thing driving him). Yet if farside has taught us one thing, it is to NOT do that, to NOT assume stubbornness is synonymous with scumminess. So I remain resolute: I will risk the game on him being town.

Fuzzy also sounds genuine. I see a post like 11863, and I cannot see scum in it. No matter how I read it, all I see is town. I see the thoughts behind him. I see his motivation as town. I see what guides his actions, as town. I read into it a town tone. I understand what Fuzzy has done. I see it. I comprehend it. I may not agree with all of his actions, but when witnessing them, I don't see scum behind what he has done. He's not a moron, sure. He's smart enough. He can obfuscate stupidity as scum easily. But in his actions, I don't see the scum player making moves. I see in him sincerity.

Shiro's not even worth considering if there's not two scum left.

So that really does just leave Reasonably Rational. Even if POE didn't point me this way, attitude would. Fuzzy's posts aren't trying to survive. grapes's posting isn't trying to survive. Almost50's posting isn't trying to survive. Reasonably Rational's posting...is. The only time they have shown so much of a HINT of antisurvivalism is in private topics (again, easily manipulated), where they had an agenda: "Shoot farside, we beg you. And if you have doubts, shoot us instead! (But really, shoot farside. Seriously, just shoot her.)"

Their posting today has been focused, ENTIRELY, on "we shouldn't be lynched today!" "mastina, stop trying to lynch us!" "mastina is wrong, so don't lynch us", and the like. They aren't scumhunting. They aren't focused on solving the game. They're focused on writing excuses. They're focused for justifying past plays, not on present or future plays. If RR were town, they wouldn't need to focus on their past. They know they are town and that they have the interests of the town at heart, so they should be focusing on the present and the future.

Yet the RR of this game has done nothing BUT focus on the past. As early as day fucking two, they were doing this: explaining what they have done. Showing off their "wondrous" accomplishments. Providing "proof" that surely, thanks to their magnificence, their masterful contributions, they could not be scum.

The difference between the players is literally night and day.

Swear to god.
The game will end on a Reasonably Rational lynch.

All this pain, all this effort, to go elsewhere, to think of other things? Sure, nice formality you've got there. I acknowledge it as a necessity and am myself engaging in it.
But it's really not actually useful, because it really will just end with RR's death. There will be no night nine. There will be no episode 10. There will just be, at long last, after 475 pages and counting, a "Game Over" message displayed on top.

I'm asking for people to trust me one last time on this.

[mastin2]

Also, I'd just like to say:
When RR keeps on posting about, "mastina, do you think the game is REALLY balanced, with all of these players who can be confirmed town and cannot be lynched?", all I can really see that as is scumplaining and ranting about how much in the game is working against them and how they feel they were fucked over by the setup and some bad luck. (For instance, my scan on TheWayItEnds was a game-changer. Zero suspicion prior to that, and suddenly one of scum's lategame--possibly even endgame--players was on borrowed time. There were half a dozen people I could have wasted my power on, namely, players like Creature, kraska, and SnarkySnowman, and by all accounts that's the type of player I should have scanned, yet I ended up scanning a nobody, TWIE, and was in disbelief of my own result.)

Like. Literally every post they have done to that. I can see as being ALMOST directly copy-pasted from the scum PT (or maybe hydra PT), into the thread, but changed from being a rant against Varsoon to a question posed to me.

[mastin2]

(Mind you...I have in fact seen their scumplaining ranting. I seem to recall some in SC's game, and they certainly had a fair share in Gistou, albeit posthumously, so it'd be multiple times. And I'm telling you, their posting here feels like their scumplaining ranting. It does not feel like gamesolving. It does not feel like gamebreaking off of mechanics. It feels like complaining, as scum, about all the things which have fucked the scum over.)

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Okay
bc I am curious.....I asked Vasoon if on night 5 was there was a kill or did the event just prevent the possibility of a kill........kind of a group RB. If it was a blanket RB than its possible that scum did not make a kill night 5 . This would make a lot of sense. If TWIE
was the last really active scum and could explain explain why there was no kills for so many days. Again this could also not be the case.....

Not sure what answer I will get