STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[grapes]

I saw what you were doing, and it was not something I see scum in your position doing. It's that simple, really.

But that's not the point.

[grapes]

I'm (or was) the designated mislynch because of assumptions the town are making that need to be curbed.

1) There's only 1 scum left.
2) That a threat to Earth wouldn't be given a fakeclaim.
3) Almost50 is town.

Think about who my mislynch benefits the most based on those assumptions.

[Shiro]

Why did that make you want an alliance with him?

Because I wanted to ask if my flavour guess was correct

[grapes]

Would you vote A50?

[Randomnamechange]

If it's "unoptimal" then who do you think scum should have been killing? You seemed to dodge that question.

People fuzzy has been killing ?
Only day there was no kill was when the even that prevented scum to do anything happened, where convenitly fuzzy said that he decided not to shoot shadow.
It might sound like bullshit to you but it is the truth.

Fuzzy has killed Firebringer (on the same Night that scum killed not chara) and Farside, who was in the lynchpool because of bad third party paranoia.
So I ask again -- what's so subopitmal about scum no killing?

And you want to know why I think it's bullshit? Because Almost's event wasn't a secret Day 1. You've been paying attention to flavor like a big guy at the ice cream parlor you're not gonna sell me that it just "dawned" on you out of nowhere that

1) You realized what his flavor was
2) You're bad enough to think events are alignment indicative when varsoon told us events are tied to fakeclaims.

But even if I give you the benefit of the doubt, and here's the big thing.
Why did that make you want an alliance with him?

@grapes i would not put it past yume to troll town. They have lied about their abilities multiple times in past games

Alright even if we ignore the ICness -- why's mastin scum?

ridiculous extent of push on RR, extent to which contributions focussed on beach-a-palooza for ages. im not saying they are scum, im saying that if it werent for yume they would def be in the lynchpool for today

[Varsoon]

Once again, I urge that if anyone has flavor questions, to just ask me.
I will not deny that flavor is a strong component of this game, but it has also been balanced such that reliance on flavor over gameplay/rhetoric/mechanics will always lead you to defeat.

[Shiro]

Would you vote A50?

Personally I am indifferent, after i learnt i was wrong I trusted RR read on him.

I still strongly believe fuzzy is the last scum left tho, and I am mostly afraid that tommorow I will be dead and nobody will be pushing that.

[Almost50]

@Almost50

How on Earth do you suppose that I'm a scum-leftover-judas given that we've seen what the leftover wincon is and how one functioned already? Why were you skeptical of magna's flavor spec? Why do you think shiro is scum?

I didn't understand the question before, and I still don't now. What's the problem with Varsoon having the leftovers wincon in your PM and adding that if you get shot at that wincon is dissolved and you automatically join the scum faction?? It's a NEW wincom based on a mechanical occurrence that IS the definition of the role itself.

It's as if you're asking "How can a TOWN player be a JUDAS when SOME OTHER TOWN had flipped with a "Town wincon"?". and the fact is they just do (as per the wiki page of the role itself: A Judas is

originally a pro-town role

, but

when it should die

(either by lynch or other kill)

it stays alive and converts to the Mafia's side

instead.)

[Almost50]

And, since we're at the WIKI PAGE: In the interest of balance,

the Judas may not be told who the rest of the Mafia are upon conversion.

So, all VC analysis are rendered obsolete bc there is a chance that grapes converted to the dark side, yet wasn't old who his partners were, so he remained uninformed.

[Almost50]

@Mastina:

You are getting too carried away with your push on RR you are starting to sound quite unreasonable yourself.

For one thing: RR are specialized in setup spec and breaking?? Well, so are YOU.

For another: They are specialized in manipulating people into thinking they're Town in PTs??
1- Titus is skeptical by nature. She cannot be manipulated/pocketed that easily. Furthermore, it was her, me, random, Fuzzy, Shiro, Yume and farside they allied with, not just one or two players.
2- The ONLY reason you are Conf!Town is because Yume said so. Hypothetically, it could very well be that you manipulated her into fake-claiming the text on the wall (i.e. there was no text but she was convinced claiming so is for the best).

Third: You assert you don't want grapes (and didn't want far) lynched based on speculation of either being 3P, and you want to lynch scum. Well, I seem to remember YOU were the one who said to lynch all 3P at the start of THIS VERY GAME. Why you changed your stance is a mystery to me.

Now w/o Yume's vouch for you I would still suggest you are very likely Town based on the ability you've been given (the threshold thing) AND for outing and pushing TWIE when there has been absolutely no need to bus him like that.

However, I'm not about doubtcasting you. I'm about expressing how awful some (actually many) of your own arguments are against yourself.

It's not "just my pride" (and yes, it has to do with it, but ONLY regarding your hijack of the game). It is also about your push being weak and unconvincing to me. My analysis/reads are different, and there's no reason for me to sheep anyone else at this point. Like, if anyone wants to lynch you at this point I wouldn't vote you either. I'm fully convinced grapes is caught scum and is trying his best to escape the lynch by throwing everything he has on most everyone alive (Please reread his posts of the day, especially the 2nd half of the day).

Now let me remind you of this little fact:

We are 8 today, so it takes 5 to lynch and 7 to lynch grapes. Tomorrow we might be 6, and even if he is the last scumster alive he becomes UNLYNCHABLE because it takes 4 to lynch and 6 to lynch HIM. Since it won't be LyLo in this case you probably will be ok lynching someone else, and then we are 5 and it takes all 5 to lynch him (he doesn't kill on the next night to ensure this is the case). OR he kills you and WIFOM's his way out of it as "why would I kill the one person not only fully Town reading me, but also providing me with protection from being lynched?"

I don't like doing future assumption based on assumptions because it tends to get complicated and I'm bound to make a mistake somewhere, but let's just limit this to the next day, so: Lynch anyone but grapes and he becomes UNLNCHABLE tomorrow, and I ave no way to know exactly what he has planned next.

If there are TWO scumsters alive, same thing, except they don't kill today, thus 7 alive tomorrow with 4 to lynch and 6 to lynch HIM. His partner won't vote him. It's not LyLo and we lynch someone else and... you get the picture.

So, please be considerate and let us lynch the one most of us feel comfortable lynching. If the game doesn't end and with you not allying with anyone next we can lynch RR tomorrow (or whoever you feel like lynching by then).

You yourself have admitted that a grapes town flip clears Shiro for good. That's a step ahead if you're Town reading grapes. On the other hand, a scum flip would either end the game or bring Shiro back on the able, only this time we KNOW there's only one scumster left alive. No ifs and buts anymore.

[Almost50]

[REDACTED]

[Almost50]

OOPS!

@varsoon:

Please delete the above post. It's in the wrong game thread.

[Reasonably Rational]

Sorry for the lack of involvement everyone, been enjoying my time off by ignoring mafia.

This is an utterly useless "yes I'm still alive and here" post, I'll try to actually accomplish something tomorrow.

@mastin: my reasoning for everything I've said has been laid out throughout the game, and if you note the timing, those short posts from me have all come when I've been at work and mobile, and I just c/p'd what drixx had to say in the past because I didn't have time to write an actual post.

-Cerb

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Shiro...
You are committing a fallacy. You are assuming that scrum are playing to win. Some players just come and play Mafia for fun. They don't care if the win. It's possible that the last scrum is just playing for fun and does not care if they win. It could be that they are too busy ,distracted etc to make NK. Not saying that's what's going on but it's possible. I personally believe that this is the likely case.

Night 6 and 8 there was a no kill by scrum. Night 5 and 7 there was a rb of scrum.

On that note I got a response from Vasoon. He did not understand what I was asking so I had to reask. Basically I asked if there was an actual shot taken or was the no kill result just do the nature of the event. The first time I asked was a bit confusing . I want to know if someone was actually shot night five.


Random assertion that Yume might of lied makes no sense. Yume gains nothing to lie about Mastin. I don't see any reason to even doubt Yume claim. I don't see any reason to try to make us doubt Mastin claims unless he think it might be Him Mastin and Moi as the final three and he is setting up a Mastin mislynch.

I think Almost is town. His interaction with DR and me seems sincere. I think RR is likely town. They seem like they are trying to scrum hunt. I think she got caught she caught in her own paranoia. I think that it is possible that they could of used me and almost to shoot Far bc far was dangerous to scrum. TBF town could get caught up in a 3rd party win con
Their paranoia could go either way

I still think that scrum could be in the Masons.
I also think that the scrum are not making kills and it's likely due to inactivity. If this is true this point to Random, MOI or Grapes. I don't think that MOI is scrum. This means that if scrum is inactive than the last scrum is either Grape or Random.
I want to wait till Vasoon respond before I go further. I could be wrong about the inactivity theory.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Not sure why I typed she and not they....brain farts I guess. Sorry RR

[mastin2]

@grapes i would not put it past yume to troll town. They have lied about their abilities multiple times in past games

I can't directly confirm my alignment.
Nor can I directly confirm that Yume told the truth about me being confirmed town.

But, I can directly (and I do mean DIRECTLY) confirm that Yume was in fact informed of my alignment. Which is as close as you're going to get. If Yume received my alignment and said alignment wasn't town, do you think Yume would lie?

If so, there's nothing I can do.
But if not, shut the fuck up about this line of discussion, because I can and WILL prove that Yume did indeed receive mod confirmation of my alignment. That's as close as I can get to proving that Yume received mod confirmation that I am town.

[mastin2]

A Judas is

originally a pro-town role

, but

when it should die

(either by lynch or other kill)

it stays alive and converts to the Mafia's side

instead.)

By the way.

Just wanted to tell you this.

Nobody--and I mean absolutely fucking NOBODY--uses the Judas role.
Not even bastard mods.
It's outside the realm of even a fucking Mind Screw game run by Tar the famous king of running mind screw games.
Every bastard mod in existence refuses to use the Judas role.
And every mod who considers their games to NOT be bastard will not include a Judas role, because bastard is partially defined as alignment changes in the middle of the game (especially ones the player is not aware of), which is

part of the Judas role

.
I've been on the site longer than most people have even so much as HEARD of the game of mafia.
In all my time on here, I've not once. ONCE. Not so much as fucking ONCE. Seen, in a mafia game. a Judas being used.
Seriously: this is how many instances of the word Judas there are in mafia games.
Go through those games and see how many of them

actually

contained a Judas.
Maybe it's a nonzero number, but I'm willing to bet that of those 145 games, less than 5 would have one.

The one and ONLY time I can see a Judas being used? In a semiopen game, where it is KNOWN a Judas is a possible role. E.g. "worst ideas mafia", "bad ideas mafia", or mafia games which use card decks including Judas as a role.

Outside of those specific conditions, the Judas role simply doesn't exist.
Not on mafiascum. That article we have on the Judas role? See how often it has been updated, see how often it has been referenced, see how often people talk about the Judas role compared to when it is actually used.

Mafiascum hates the Judas role. Varsoon would NEVER use it. Ever.

[mastin2]

For one thing: RR are specialized in setup spec and breaking?? Well, so are YOU.

You're not listening to my point.
My point is, Reasonably Rational is AT LEAST my equal in setup speculation if not my superior especially at gamebreaking.
However, in this game, they have--CONSISTENTLY--been proven, time and time again, to be wrong, going

against

what I was saying, even making a play (telling fuzzy to vig farside) which

cost the town an auto-win

, something that runs contrary to their very nature.
So my point is that they AREN'T doing it properly. They have consistently pushed things that were wrong. And here in the now, they are continuing to push ideas that aren't likely, and they are refusing, in spite of MULTIPLE REQUESTS ON MY PART, to do gamebreaking. They haven't commented, at all, on plans to lock down the game as of today. They've done nothing.

For another: They are specialized in manipulating people into thinking they're Town in PTs?? 1- Titus is skeptical by nature. She cannot be manipulated/pocketed that easily. Furthermore, it was her, me, random, Fuzzy, Shiro, Yume and farside they allied with, not just one or two players.

Oh believe me. Titus can be manipulated. She is indeed skeptical by nature. She is not immune to making false assumptions, however. And when she locks onto an idea, she almost never will release it. And, say she locked onto a wrong idea of certain players being scum. (e.g. farside.) Say someone like RR agreed with her. How do you think Titus would react to that? It is going to be more favorable than not. Perhaps she holds some healthy speculation on RR, but she is going to assume--correctly--that both RR and her other scumread cannot be scum together, and thus, only one of them can be scum. And if she deems it to be the other one, what does she do with RR?

Give them slack. To the point where, especially in PTs, but also in-thread, it would appear that she doesn't have a scumread on RR at all. And at that point, yes, she has been manipulated. Sure! True pocketing isn't possible. But deception is possible, and Titus lacks communication skills. I do believe she, like me, lies at least partially on the autistic spectrum (she's free to correct me on this if I'm wrong postgame), and inherent in that is not communicating ideas as clearly as she thinks she is. So she might not have trusted RR, yet with her words, at the time of her death, fully appeared to.

And beyond that. NOBODY is immune to being manipulated in a private PT. Drixx has manipulated ME in a private PT. Smite Mafia would like to remind you of how brilliantly executed that was. There, he was also manipulating the third Mayan God player as well. Sure! Maybe RR wouldn't be able to manipulate all of Titus/you/random/Fuzzy/Shiro/Yume/farside at the same time! But they didn't have to. All they had to do was manipulate you ONE, or in the case of a season finale, TWO at a time. And that can be done repeatedly. Time and time again, you can pull this same stunt off. Manipulating a single person in private is easy. Manipulating two people in private is still easy.

There's a damn fucking good reason why content should be given IN HERE. In the thread.
And Reasonably Rational has

consistently

failed to deliver it. The content RR has given has been direct copy-pastes from private topics. The content RR has been giving has been rehashing and giving brief glimpses into the private topics, without actually giving NEW info, and without giving the WHOLE of the private topic.

So Reasonably Rational will bring forth something that--to a member of the private topic in question--looks good, and those players will vouch for that thing being good, without actually putting forward all the thoughts for all the players to scrutinize. Do you know why? Because if Reasonably Rational let their posts in their private topics be scrutinized, ALL of them, inconsistency after inconsistency would crop up, bad push after bad push would come out, and all the players would know as much.

Hypothetically, it could very well be that you manipulated her into fake-claiming the text on the wall (i.e. there was no text but she was convinced claiming so is for the best).

You know what my fucking power is. You know DAMN well and good that I can EXPLICITLY prove this to be false. Fuck! The only reason I haven't is because I honestly made a bit of a mistake in choosing the order of my night actions. (My second night action you're aware of should've been done tonight rather than done earlier.)

Third: You assert you don't want grapes (and didn't want far) lynched based on speculation of either being 3P, and you want to lynch scum. Well, I seem to remember YOU were the one who said to lynch all 3P at the start of THIS VERY GAME. Why you changed your stance is a mystery to me.

You're either senile or never read the discussion because my stance here has always been consistent.

I am THE strongest defender of third parties on site. THE. strongest. I consistently advocate for them. Fuck! If I know that a serial killer is a serial killer, I still insist on not lynching the serial killer, on leashing them, unless the serial killer then breaks from the leash and acts anti-town after being outed. I will, EXPLICITLY, try to utilize

even a malevolent third party

, YET ALONE, benevolent ones.

The one, and ONLY, reason why I was against third parties is because I didn't believe there would be any third parties in this game especially given the criticism about the third parties in V's last game or two. I said I would lynch third party claims because I was under the impression said third party claims would be scum fakeclaiming third party, and not actually BE third party.

Then, the crystal gems were revealed, and farside revealed her third party power. When I saw the NATURE of those third party roles, I knew them to be town. Farside's role? Nearly identical to BRantz's role in a Varsoon game I was reading. (Because I tend to read, or at least skim, MOST Varsoon games.) The crystal gems faction? A full FACTION (and therefore not possibly a single scum player, fakeclaiming), unlikely to be a scum faction, and whose wincon is near-identical to the Undead Risen Slave third party wincon that I made for Gistou. (Basically town, but not QUITE town, being harder than town to win but still having pro-town interests at heart.) And given how similarly I think to Varsoon, I understood that to immediately be true.

And GIVEN THOSE CLAIMS. Given how many fucking third party players WE ALREADY HAVE. Damn straight that I do not believe there are any more in the game. I do not think there are any more leftovers. I think there is one scum, and one scum ONLY left. I think that the only third parties left are the crystal gems. And that's it. Nothing more, and nothing less.

It is also about your push being weak and unconvincing to me.

I'd say "pot, kettle, black", but that would imply that there was a strong resemblance between your arguments and mine when they're the difference between night and fucking day.

My arguments?
Long essays that give detailed, multi-layered thoughts covering the whole game:
What every flipped scum player has talked about.
Where every player has been voting.
Where every player has been pushing.
What every player is doing right in the now.
Every piece of mechanical evidence we have at hand.
Every piece of flavor we have at our disposal.
Why I think every player is town.
Why I think RR specifically is scum.
And probably half a dozen other things I am forgetting because I am easily distracted.

Your arguments?
"...Because I think so?"
"Because RR were town in this area that you can't see?"
"Because gut?"
"Because POE townreads on all players except one?"
"Because I disagree with your read?"
"Because of this crazy setup spec I have which is in violation of occam's razor and also site meta standards?" (Judas as a role.)

That's literally fucking all of what you have presented.
You disagree?

Prove it!
Show me your case in explicit detail.
Because I've only been fucking asking for you to do this since, you know. DAYSTART. And been given nothing.

Lynch anyone but grapes and he becomes UNLNCHABLE tomorrow, and I ave no way to know exactly what he has planned next.

That's the fucking thing, though.

You say grapes has this "plan" in place to win the game.
Yet, you don't know exactly what that plan is. You just assume "there must be a plan here".

I have shown you, rather EXTENSIVELY, exactly what Reasonably Rational's plan is. I haven't just said they have a plan. I've shown, in detail, exactly what that fucking plan is. I have laid out their path to victory and why they have done what they have done, because their moves have been strategically laying down the best possible path to a win. Sure, the strategy I have shown you isn't foolproof--but it's the only path down which they don't lose the game.

[mastin2]

I think RR is likely town. They seem like they are trying to scrum hunt.

Show me.
Like, show me a single fucking post of scumhunting.
Not, "I think player X is the best lynch".
Not, "Please do this".
Not setup spec.
If you think there is scumhunting from them.
SHOW IT TO ME.

[mastin2]

In fact.
Here, have a practical demonstration of the manipulation.
Read this private topic.
Too lazy?
Too damn bad. At the very least, read Drixx's iso.
Compare his posting in there to the posting you see in your private topics.

Now take it further.
This was his in-game iso.
See what kind of difference there is in presentation?

I am telling you.
ESPECIALLY at this point. Reasonably Rational's consistent dedication to keeping the majority of their alleged content entirely exclusive to their private topics is serving a pure scum agenda.

In contrast!
Look at what they did in here, and then look at their in-game equivalent.
Literally every thought they posted in the Connie-Centipeedle-Steven topic, they brought to the game thread.
Literally. EVERY. single. thought. Was brought directly from there, into the game thread. Maybe not immediately. In fact, some of their traps for scum (namely, Titus) RELIED on the delay in timing.

But they did in fact bring literally every single thought from their PT with us into the game.

Now I ask of you.
Read your entire PT with RR.
How much of what they said, did they bring to the thread?
25%? 50%? It can't be much more than that. If so, please be so kind as to point out exactly when and WHERE they brought this content directly to the thread because I'm telling you.

I keep on hearing, time and time again.
"Oh, their content in the PT is town!"
And time and time again, I'm asking. "Okay. So they were town in the PT. Where the fuck is that townness IN THREAD?"
And time and time again, I'm being told, "...But...they were town in the PT!"
Without. being. shown.

[mastin2]

Like.

I have 575 posts in my iso.
Do you know how many of those posts have been today?
88 of them.
I realize that's only a little more than an eighth of my iso. I realize that the game has been going for nine days, so an eighth of my entire iso isn't that terribly much. But do you know how long I've been posting those 88 posts? Less than two weeks. Over six posts a day. And these aren't exactly short posts! These are lengthy posts, where I lay out detail. After detail. After detail. And need I remind you! I didn't suddenly start pushing Reasonably Rational out of the blue today. I was pushing them on Day Eight, too. (Admittedly as a vig.) 11465 as a fine example. 11312 is where I first laid out the plan though. 11500 is another such instance. You get the idea.

I've not only been showing why RR is the last scum. I've also been showing why other players are NOT the last scum, and also explaining why it is frankly LAUGHABLE to think there's more than one.

This isn't stubbornness on my part. I've been looking to be proven wrong.
I've been LOOKING. Actively LOOKING. For signs that I am wrong. For signs, so much as a SINGLE sign. That someone else could be scum. Fuzzy. grapes. Almost50. Shiro. (Well admittedly Shiro's strength is in having been bubbled.) Everyone in this game has reason to be town, and everyone in this game has scummy aspects of their play which can be construed as coming from scum.

Yet I've gone to GREAT lengths to explain exactly--and I do mean EXACTLY--why I feel the way I do. Who is not likely to be scum, why the reasons for them being scum don't hold water for me, why the reasons for them being town are valid to me. And also, why I think the last scum is Reasonably Rational in literally dozens of different ways, why probability points to them being scum, why I think the things that are town from them don't make them be town.

What more can you ask for?
I've given you basically everything short of a page-by-page play-by-play of the game.

What have YOU given ME?
"You're wrong."
"RR's town because of effort." (Not showing where this alleged effort is.)
"RR's town because of PT stuff." (Again, something which hasn't appeared in the thread, or if it has...has not been demonstrated since I HAVE asked this, many times, and been given nothing.)
"I don't think your reasons are valid." (No why. Just flatly, "I disagree".)

I really don't know what you're asking for.
I've shown you WHY I don't think grapes is scum. I've shown you WHY I don't think there are two scum. I've shown you WHY I think grapes is town. I haven't seen people disagree with my reasons. Just point out, "but, grapes COULD be scum, and COULD be fooling you". Of course he fucking could be. But I've explained exactly why I don't think he is. And you HAVEN'T explained why he would be.

[mastin2]

I swear.
Multiple times this day phase, even.
I've left out of pure, sheer frustration.
I've walked away from posting. Because I've told myself.
"No matter what I say. It's not going to make a difference. In spite of them having EVERY REASON TO TRUST ME. And EVERY REASON TO LISTEN TO ME. And MY PAST RECORD. And ME KNOWING THE PLAYERS. Despite all of that. They won't listen to me. But maybe, if I'm patient enough, if I wait long enough, playername will come in and show them the light. Be sensible. Convince them with sheer, hard, cold logical precision why RR is the play for today."

Who said player is has varied.
I've put my faith in grapes.
I've put my faith in Magna, because MoI is a pretty damn good mechanical-based player AND a scumhunting-based player, so he should be picking up on all the logical inconsistencies from Reasonably Rational, every suboptimal play they have orchestrated, and he should realize that as town they wouldn't be doing those and thus he should be spearheading their lynch. I've waited for that magical moment, where I would have an ally that someone else would listen to, that someone else could see as maybe having a point.

Because I know that I'm not the most charismatic of players.
I know that I don't really know what to put forward to convince others.
I know that when I try to strongarm a lynch through, I am doing so on purely a "PLEASE just fucking trust me!" basis, and that I don't really have any other real tool at my disposal.

And yet, here I am doing my damnedest anyway because that magical, mythical, mystical player who can muster up the rest of the town to my aide simply isn't materializing.
I'm throwing everything including the kitchen sink forward here.

More than any other player. I swear to god, more than any other player, I doubt my reads. I constantly reevaluate them. I'm always right, and always wrong, about my reads, because I always see a player as scum, and I always see them as town. I simply have to deal with the probabilities. And I'm telling you. Right here and now. In a game that is 477 pages long and counting. Everyone has reason to be town--does anybody disagree with this? Everyone has reason to be scum--yes, even me. Yes, even the crystal gems. Said reasons may not be valid, of course. But they exist.

I considered the possibility of the gems being scum. I have ruled it out as implausible, and that the probabilities point to them being town.
I considered the possibility of two scum left. I have ruled it out as implausible, with the probabilities pointing towards only one scum remaining.

I have strongly considered the possibility of Shiro being scum, especially with Shiro's attitude and overall lackluster content with pushes which weren't exactly the most helpful. I have ruled it as less plausible, with probabilities pointing towards Shiro being town, both because Shiro has been voted by scum and voted FOR scum during a key day phase. (Namely, DGB, when we KNOW DGB was in communication with the scumteam.)

I have strongly considered the possibility of Fuzzy being scum, because of Fuzzy being a non-topvoter, because Fuzzy having a kill fits Army's flavor, because of Fuzzy's consistently derp play, and because of the lack of a second shot. I have ruled it as implausible, with the probabilities pointing towards Fuzzy being town because Fuzzy's slot has consistently voted and pressured scum, and been voted and pressured BY scum, with scum's moves initially focused on eliminating Fuzzy via a lynch and when that proved impossible, focused on keeping Fuzzy from being confirmed as town via shooting during a night scum also shoot.

I have strongly considered the possibility of grapes being scum, because of grapes's only votes on scum being SirCakez D1 and Shadow_step the day before Shadow scumclaimed. (Note that I have NOT considered grapes being scum because of the idea of him switching to being scum.) I have ruled it as less plausible, with probabilities pointing towards grapes's continued pushing of scum (even if he didn't vote many) as coming from town, with his role making sense as being town, and him not making sense as having Lapis Lazuli as a fakeclaim as scum.

I have strongly considered the possibility of Almost50 being scum, because Almost50 has consistently tried to fuck the town over with his actions the whole game, he is a capable scum player, he is capable of obfuscating insanity as scum, and has to some extent cruised on early towncred while also making nonsensible pushes. I see it as neither plausible nor implausible, but my probability meter says more likely to be town than not, off of the sincere nature OF his interactions and how I don't see the scum motive behind his actions, with a town-sounding tone and a complete and utter lack of an obvious scum agenda; there's no hint of a plan from him, simply...posting, which I don't see as being from scum.

I have strongly considered the possibility of Reasonably Rational being scum, because literally everyone else is saying they are, because RR can in fact be wrong even as town, and because it is POSSIBLE for other players to be scum. I have ruled it as unlikely, because the probabilities point to them being scum. Their actions don't match up with my expectation of their towngame. Their continued deflections and elusive play serve a clear agenda. They have made sub-optimal play after sub-optimal play. They have defended scum at key areas of the game: lynching Creature over Shadow_step. Trying to lynch Creature over TheWayItEnds. Trying to lynch farside multiple times. Insisting on the farside vig. Strongly insisting that Skybird was town. The list goes on and on.

I am telling you that weighing possibilities into probabilities is what I specialize in.
I am telling you that I have looked at every angle. Even the ones which should be utterly impossible, which no sane player would ever rationally consider a valid option.
I am telling you that I have crunched the numbers. Done my math. Done my homework. Researched what I am saying, as much as a player like me who is easily exhausted can possibly research a 477-page game. I've compiled evidence from key areas of the game: what flipped scum have said. What players still alive have said ABOUT flipped scum. Where votes have landed.

And I am telling you.

It all points to Reasonably Rational as being scum.

[mastin2]

Like.
When I lynched SirCakez, I asked for your trust.
I didn't ask for your trust on Mathblade; that just kinda happened.
I wasn't involved on DGB.
I didn't ask for your trust on SnarkySnowman.
I DID ask for your trust when I lynched TheWayItEnds.
I didn't ask for your trust when we lynched kraskaesque.
I didn't ask for your trust when we lynched Creature.
I was planning on asking for your trust when we lynched Shadow_step, but Varsoon locked the thread before I was able to.

And I am asking you.
One last time.
Just once.
One more time.

To just fucking trust me.
Follow me, one last time, better or worse, and to just lynch Reasonably Rational.

This is not confirmation bias.
This is not a stale read which refuses to change.
I've come to this read only after having weighed all the options and thought everything through extensively.

Reasonably Rational is the last scum. The game will end with their lynch. It's that simple. So I ask again.
Please just fucking trust me on this.

[Shiro]

Vote:RR

This day will never end unless this happens.

RR I think you are town and you living will put us in this endless loop. If you are scum you fooled me.

We need to move this game forward.

[Reasonably Rational]

Hello again everyone. So I've decided that since mastin is right that every single slot in this game has a good amount of evidence in favor of them being town, so..I'm going to throw out all the evidence I've been relying on, the contradictions between the things people have done and what they would have done to be even halfway competent as scum, and, well, start over.

@mastin: I believe the only thing we've said in PTs that wasn't brought to the thread was this: we didn't EXPLICITLY say that the reason Fuzzy shouldn't shoot on N7 was because if the town experienced 3 deaths(ml, scum kill, vig kill)+farside attained their win con+we had underestimated the size of the the scum team, town would lose. Drixx HINTED at it, but didn't want to express it outright. We DID tell the game that if fuzzy shot on that night, his safest shot was at SS, because SS as near-vanilla only made sense to us as part of a larger than expected scum team, therefore shooting at him ensured both three town deaths AND a larger than expected scum team wouldn't happen simultaneously, or were at least improbable to do so.

@grapes: I'm going to be reevaluating things, so I'll get back to you about A50. I currently feel that he's part of the key to ensuring scum can't win, since they have too many legitimate conftowns to kill through to get to him, so even in the worst case he'll be alive in lylo and NOT an easy mislynch, but that's all based on the thoughts I'm throwing out.

-Cerb