Pick Your Power: Double Deck (GAME OVER)

[Fishythefish]

@giga: just a note - I think you're too hung up on protecting the two of diamonds. Understandable given your position, but your suicide is fairly unlikely, it's not the only two of diamonds, scum might shoot you anyway, and we can potentially revive them anyway. If Dunn/gerry is the best lynch by any appreciable margin, I'd say the two of diamonds should not be a dominant factor.

@MB: I disagree. It's very unlikely scum would have gone through with a vig shot on Titus after Dunn slipped. I don't think the post is good evidence against Grey. I also don't think Grey is scum for other reasons.

[Fishythefish]

gerry and McMenno picked a fight with a decently town-read, fairly influential player. They did so in a way that had no prospect of leading to his lynch, before I turned up - which they could not have predicted. So I don't think there's a good scum motive here. I could see one of them being scum, following the other - from the initial neighbourhood posts, where gerry reacted first, that would likely be McM following gerry. But my instinct is that they are town here.

[davesaz]

I thought it possible that Titus was scum right up to her flip. Town more likely than not, but as scum she could have defended Maria simply because we don't expect scum to hard defend their partners. I think that others thought she was scum after her defense of Maria. Furthermore I think that

Dunn would

think she was scum in that circumstance. I've watched Dunn form a lot of reads that way. The post in question was probably a legitimate desire to kill her. Not a scum slip if he thought she was scum. I've seen him make the exact same type of post countless times as town.

If he is scum then we get more evidence and lynch him later. If he is town we preserve the ability to revive 2 more cards if another 7 comes up trump. What's wrong with pursuing other more scummy players?

[MathBlade]

@Fishy --- If you knew Titus like I do I would know why Dunn would kill Titus. That to me is a scumslip.

@Davesaz -- That is terribad. If he is scum the answer is lynch it always. You don't trade a scumlynch for information. Iioa kills townies. Don't do itssss.

[davesaz]

If you have likely town who made a post which can be misinterpreted as a scumslip if you squint, vs obvious scum -- why not lynch the obvious scum?
Lynch McMenno!

[MathBlade]

Because it is a scumslip so large 4 billboards don't contain it and McMenno is lynchbait. Move on.

[Fishythefish]

When and how did McMenno become obvious scum? Seems that we've all been calling him a little bit scummy for ages, and suddenly there's a real push on him. Where's it coming from?

[MathBlade]

When and how did McMenno become obvious scum? Seems that we've all been calling him a little bit scummy for ages, and suddenly there's a real push on him. Where's it coming from?

Because people don't want to lynch Dunn.

[MathBlade]

It wouldn't be a wagon without Dunn and Grey.

[gerryoat]

Imagine scum slipping and not voting it lol

[gerryoat]

Some of you literally need to be handfed mafia

[gerryoat]

I don't get the Dunn wagon at all.

VOTE: McMenno

R u blind. He scum slipped the NK

[gerryoat]

I'm really surprised by the lack of interest in this. I'm going to lay out exactly what happened in the neighbourhood, and why I think it's likely that it makes Dunn scum. I think various people are dismissing this for no reason at all.

All three

of the people who have seen this post think it a likely scumslip. Writing that off without seeing it, and without asking a question about it, is not wise.

An account of the Diamonds hood

I've tried to keep this completely unopinionated. Dunn, shout if you think any of this is unfair or anything interesting is left out.

- A few posts of pleasantries.
- Dunn and McMenno briefly discuss gerry's alignment, and massclaim. gerry defends, pointing out that Maria was deflecting onto him
- Discussion of claims within the hood
- Dunn makes a comment on how it's sad there's no doc/watcher to protect giga.
- Some chat around gerry being sent fruit. Speculation about scum having a fruit vendor, which fizzles out when they remember Vecna claimed it.
- Dunn asks whether card spy seems town. gerry replies he doesn't see town wanting it.

- Dunn posts "Let's kill titus". This is the entirety of the post.

- gerry and McMenno call it a scumslip.
- Dunn says it wasn't a slip, he was talking to the hood.
- Dunn expresses frustration at delayed N3 deadline, and emphasises the he wants to kill Titus.
- Dunn proposes posting as if the hood was the scumteam (I think? Dunn - is that the right interpretation)?
- gerry and McMenno are clearly unconvinced.

My opinions on it

From town?

So, Dunn's claim is that he meant "let's lynch Titus". I find that claim unlikely:
- There had been zero comment in the neighbourhood on anyone's alignment outside the hood. It doesn't feel like a neighbourhood you're going to galvanise and build a wagon around.
- It's completely unexplained. There's no reasoning why Titus is scum - and remember, we just had a scumflip and a very significant claim from Titus.
- It proposes no action, makes no attempt at persuasion, nothing. All in all, I see this as a very unlikely post at that point in the neighbourhood conversation.
- The reaction to it in the hood reads to me like Dunn knows it's a dodgy post, and is trying to cover for it. If he's just unlucky town, you might see the same - but then I wouldn't expect the completely blase attitude he's shown to it in thread.
One point on the other side - Dunn wanting to lynch Titus is plausible; relevant posts are post 3725 and post 3595. The latter being particularly notable as containing the phrase "kill titus".

@Dunn: do you see why the neighbourhood post looks really dodgy? Can you explain any more about what you were thinking when you made it?

From scum?

It seems unlikely to be about the Grey shot. It would be bold scum indeed to go through with that after slipping it to the hood. More likely it was just about the kill the next day. Is that likely? Not sure. Scum could reasonably shoot at Titus for holding the King of Diamonds. Much more likely if the scum held the other one, I'd say.

Dunn's reaction

Is really poor. It looks like he thought he could steamroller McMenno and gerry, as he has a lot more weight/presence/whatever in the game. He called for their lynches repeatedly, and never talked to them. If Dunn is town here, I really think the natural conclusion from his POV is that he made a very unfortunate post, or

possibly

that McMenno and gerry (and now me) are being idiots jumping on something that obviously wasn't a scumslip. Either way, I'd really not expect him to attack McM and gerry as scum.

OTOH, he put me in the neighbourhood, which made his situation potentially a lot worse. Did he forget I'd be in the hood immediately? Dunno.

McMenno and gerry

And if I'm town, what do you think of the people pushing on me?

Whether or not your are town - I think the manner of their push was idiotic. I feel a bit like I'm trying to convince the town that the slip is significant, while they loiter behind me saying "ner ner, Dunn is scum". I see no earthly motivation from any alignment to come out and vote you cryptically, not claim anything, not explain anything, etc. If you are town - this episode wouldn't give me a scumread on anyone pushing it.

What he said

[MathBlade]

Some of you literally need to be handfed mafia

This.

[MathBlade]

Horses and water.

[Maxous]

We can let him respond first obviously.
No rush.
Hold them horses.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

IF YOU RECEIVED FRUIT AT ANY POINT, please claim when!! Knowledge of what fruit vendors are in play will help me figure out what diamond cards are in the deck and better plan out night actions once the next 2 inventories necessary are completed.

^ no one got back to me on this btw

i think uzi said something but i don't remember if he said when specifically he received it, just that he did. but i would also like to know the when

I received some fruit during Night 2.

One point on the other side - Dunn wanting to lynch Titus is plausible; relevant posts are post 3725 and post 3595. The latter being particularly notable as containing the phrase "kill titus".

This in particular gives me pause. It's definitely a bizarre choice of words if he is town and I would be voting right now had you not pointed out post 3595. Seeing him use the same wording in the game thread, it's plausible that he meant "kill" to signify lynch in the neighborhood thread.

Dunn was also on Maria quite a bit during day two during the buildup of Jackel's wagon.

It seems unlikely to be about the Grey shot. It would be bold scum indeed to go through with that after slipping it to the hood. More likely it was just about the kill the next day. Is that likely? Not sure. Scum could reasonably shoot at Titus for holding the King of Diamonds. Much more likely if the scum held the other one, I'd say.

If Titus hadn't been killed & was still in the game, would you be reading this any differently?

Quoting Kison here because I actually agree with the first statement. I just want to add on a little and talk about the first post that Fish mentioned.

3275 sounds like genuine frustration. It just feels a bit misguided since we were all in agreement to lynch within rb's lynch pool, Jackal's play didn't scream town, and we'll never know if he shot Maria and failed or if he decided not to shoot.

[Vecna]

Good news everyone. Based on my analysis (with a bit of help from gigas inventory result) i think i have concluded noone can/will mess with the upcoming trump cards since me and my mason partner hold all those powers.So ill be disclosing the good stuff that is coming:

These are the following:
6 of hearts (tonight)
7 of diamonds (tomorrow)

This means tomorrow we will get 2 extra card revives and our double lynch. Noone should be able to die during the night as far as i can deduce.

Having said that.....WE ARE NOT LYNCHING DUNN TODAY. I dont buy dunn "slipping" a nk target more than a full (night)phase before scum could kill anyone again, and then inviting more people to witness the evidence. We can decide his card revive choice tomorrow if me and Giga fail to convince people that dunn is town, so its only to our benefit to keep him around. If he goes against our wishes (he wont), theres always the double lynch tomorrow.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

have my babies vecna holy fucking shit

also you saw my correction to my result, right? (13, not 14)

and thanks Uzi, that actually helps speaking of my inventory result

[Fishythefish]

Vecna's post makes Grey an even better protect tonight; gives us two lynches tomorrow. And I can confirm that all diamonds are accounted for by those paying sufficient attention (which is a lot of attention).

UNVOTE:

With a lot on both sides Dunn's slip (or not) is one I struggle to be sure of the significance of. The fact that I've failed to persuade a single strong townread likely means I'm way up the wrong tree. (Still, I don't regret outing this. McMenno and gerry's way of doing this was only leading bad places)

VOTE: Uzi

[MathBlade]

Masons don't exist in this game. Assuming you are town, Why the hell would you tell scum what cards are coming up now they can plan for it?

I don't like keeping claimed scum around. It is ridiculous. Whenever you can you lynch scum not leash it unless you have to. I absolutely do but Dunn slipping that.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Vecna's post makes Grey an even better protect tonight; gives us two lynches tomorrow. And I can confirm that all diamonds are accounted for by those paying sufficient attention (which is a lot of attention).

Just want to confirm, you know that there's only 13 diamonds not in players' hands, not 14?

Because I still need to know about 1 more diamond. :/

[Vecna]

have my babies vecna holy fucking shit

also you saw my correction to my result, right? (13, not 14)

and thanks Uzi, that actually helps speaking of my inventory result

Titus card holdings did confuse the hell out of me, but after i saw the correction it all made sense

[Vecna]

Oh and i tried to soft to you which one it is guga. I have it, and my few recent posts should hint enough at what it is.

Theres 2 cards left in the deck that could stop the trumps from coming. I have 1, my mason partner has the other.

[SpyreX]

I'm still fine with uzi or angel
Remind me tomorrow tell a dark secret