Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[MiniDeathStar]

I've been meaning to take a good hard look at culted and IamI since Yesterday, but I'm on vacation and another game was (and still is) kind of preoccupying me, so that'll have to come in gradually and in small segments. I'm sorry.

But feel totally free to check them yourselves in the meantime. I think Io might have been onto something there.

[Aj The Epic]

Why are you so attached to Io's reads over your own?

[culted]

Kairal, culted, IamI and massive claimed they didn't believe the claim.

Again. Notice a pattern?

What was believable about his claim?

[I Am Innocent]

6 - Io: Dierfire, MiniDeathStar, Aj The Epic, HellloooNewman, -Grey-,

I Am Innocent, culted

Secret Agent Jin (6)

culted , I Am Innocent

, Flubbernugget , massive , -Grey- , Kairal LYNCH!

Either we were all absolutely totally wrong as town and scum didn't even need to wagon these people (and make themselves look bad), or scum decided to sponsor them a little bit.

Do you notice a certain pattern here?

Mafia theory time, regarding this and the 'who didn't believe the Newman claim' patterns you are pointing out.

Do scum usually vote together like I think you are trying to hint with me and culted?

Do scum usually like to be on all the town wagons? (Look at DGBs scumputer and it shows a greater correlation to being scum for players on some town wagons and off other town wagons)

Scum would have known Newman was town, so they would have likely believed his claim. So how would scum act? Once again I think you throw out patterns and assume 1, maybe 2 did not believe him and 1, maybe 2 scum did believe him. (Yes this assumes 3 scum total) like voting, scum are usually pretty careful to try to mix it up and blend in, not go all united together as you are hinting.

I did not like these posts by mini at all, but iso'ing her again I still think she is town. Misguided on me yeah but still prob town none the less.

Like I said I still want to check some voting histories and would like to ISO a few players if not all. Two players that I have not suspected much this game have recently caught my eye, tho one dropped a very strong early D1 town tell that is usually right :-/

More to come.

[I Am Innocent]

Dierfire, saw you post elsewhere today, time to play this game.

[massive]

The problem with doing ANY kind of votecount analysis is that .. well, we have a lot of holes in patterns due to the lack of votecounts in this game. Anyone who wants to use it is practically going to have to go back and redo a bunch of them.

Mini, it also doesn't count the fact that you are practically rushing the IO lynch yourself - you post this:

I just love how nonchalant Io is at L-1.

between I Am Innocent's L-1 vote and Culted's hammer.

I'm not necessarily saying you're wrong, but I will also agree with IaI's post above, that if I were scum in that situation, I doubt I'd start the next day by sitting right next to my partner again, and certainly not in the very next post. (Their votes are 889 and 890 respectively.) (And 891 definitely doesn't make it seem like they're partners.)

If you want to do culted, though, I can get on board with that.

[Kairal]

massive's last post is pretty convincing. I agree that scum would probably not want to vote for the same person in such quick succession. On the other hand the day did end somewhat faster than people were expecting. It's not impossible they were planning to move their votes a little later on.

I also agree that scum would probably believe Newman - they know he's not on their team at the least. Given that they were planning to kill him anyway did they have any real reason to try and throw doubt on his claim? I don't really see the scum motive personally.

I think the main thing I want right now is to see a bit more from Shadow.

[Aj The Epic]

I mean it depends on their acting level. If it was cut and dry, everyone would do it one way or the other. The thing you don't expect is scum to counterclaim or scum to hammer vote after the claim.

[Shadow_step]

So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
I'l get caught up during the weekend.
Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?

[Aj The Epic]

Kairal's still solidly town. It's gonna take more than mild shade throwing to change that for me.

[Flubbernugget]

VOTE: MDS

Still sticking to my suspicions from before + her vca is awful

@Aj how is massive, who has avoided lynch for three days now, an easy push?

[Aj The Epic]

He avoided lynches against people he agreed with (mostly) and are now all dead.

[massive]

Never mind that, after spending two days voting for me, why are you suddenly willing to switch to my biggest scumread from those two days?

[Aj The Epic]

I'm not switching to Shadow, it's just his 'attack' on Kairal is weak and is a fish to start a wagon without doing anything himself.

[Dierfire]

Here I am! I apologize for my absence--I am here now and not leaving until thoroughly caught up with this game (I have the remainder of the day at my disposal).

[Kairal]

So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
I'l get caught up during the weekend.
Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?

I'd like to hear more from you. I don't really have any kind of read on you right now.

[Flubbernugget]

Never mind that, after spending two days voting for me, why are you suddenly willing to switch to my biggest scumread from those two days?

What do your scum reads have to do with mine?

[Flubbernugget]

Why do you want me to waste a third day pushing for your lynch when we've seen from experience it probably won't go through?

[Dierfire]

Easy stuff first!
---
The "slip" line from CloudKicker in 43 is still unlikely from a Mafia player. The decreased activity level from Shadow_step is unfortunate but not suspicious in itself; my recollection and limited review of previous games supports the idea that Shadow_step is no less active as Mafia than as Town.
---
I Am Innocent was off of my radar for a long time, but now occupies a position that I'd consider among the stronger Town reads. Checking into my predecessor (893) is a level of effort that seems less likely to come from a Mafia player (also it's an unusual target for effort by a Mafia player).
---
In addition to all of my previous thoughts about Aj the Epic that still stand (656 mostly), I'm now adding that Aj The Epic responds to Io as I would expect a Town player to. Some of this is difficult to phrase (relies on things like "tone" and "gut"), but I think that I can safely point to things like 434 (very shortly after Io incorrectly attributes a read to Aj The Epic, he corrects her--this suggests a legitimately held read and familiarity with the thought process as opposed to a falsified thought process that needs checking before a response comes together).
---
My secondary tier consists of players like MiniDeathStar, Kairal, and culted. I was reading them as Town D1, but due to time/decay and my baseline assumption that I'm wrong about one or more of the players I was reading as Town, I'm less confident in these.

[Dierfire]

@MiniDeathStar

By the way: I just finished a game where Kairal was scum and totally fooled me, so I'm no longer locktown on him. Just town.

I'm having a bit of difficulty reading Kairal myself. I thought that many things pointed toward Town alignment, but as I already have too many players as Town I've been fretting about things that I might have missed. How did Kairal deceive you in the previous game, and what implications does that have for your read in this game?

[Dierfire]

@massive

I don't have any issue with Dierfire. 656 is good townposting. Also I find his push on Io consistent even if ultimately wrong, which feels good to me.

I found this while reading over again, and I've two questions. What specifically did you like about my 656, and do you still like those things?

[Dierfire]

@Flubbernugget

Still sticking to my suspicions from before + her vca is awful

I'm aware of several methodological problems with the VCA. As you believe that MiniDeathStar is Mafia, I assume that you find those problems likely to be intentional. What implications would you propose for the alignments of the players involved?

[Flubbernugget]

*groan*

Considering how poorly executed the vca is, I would assume that Mini is pointing to two townies in it

Why does this matter considering MDS hasn't flipped?

[Dierfire]

I asked for two reasons.
The first was that MiniDeathStar pointed to two players as suspicious in the VCA of 972 (I Am Innocent and culted) and four players as suspicious in relation to the claim from HellloooNewman in 974 (those two plus massive and Kairal). Given my reads, I was not thinking that all four were likely to be Town, so I was more hoping than expecting that you would have some great insight into resolving that.
Given your previously stated objections to associations before flips, however, I was more realistically hoping to have you discuss your independent reads on those players.

Does that tentative supposition (MiniDeathStar is Mafia trying to unfairly implicate culted and I Am Innocent, who are both Town), match your independent reads?

[Shadow_step]

@DF can you ISO grey so that we can pseudo clear some people.
Also why do you think he was killed?