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[Alisae]

I have a problem with both Debi's logic and people voting Debi for such logic.

You think scum is pushing Debi for lynch bait?

[Wraith]

Trying to think if there are any Normal town-aligned roles that might have setup foreknowledge.

There's Mason, but Mason wouldn't have info on the number of scum or scumteams in the game. Same with Neighbor or Neighborizer.

Outside of those I don't think there's anyone and I don't think there's Informed roles in Normals?

[Creature]

I think Debi just made a dumb assumption rather than showing actual knowledge.

[Debi]

TheRealGin-N-Tonic, there is something I'm failing to understand to do with your current actions in the round. You have voted to lynch Pine, which is all well and done, at this point in the game, 99% of the votes, won't have any ulterior motive behind them whatsoever, which is fine, if you don't have any main reason to be voting for Pine. However, you have currently created a contradiction, when trying to prove that your vote on Pine is legit, and has reasoning. The main problem with it, is as below:

It might be one-sided on Pine's side considering he's only made one post showing he's online but stopped saying anything afterwards, however on my end, to give you context to the vote, I recently played a game as an IC and Pine had day talk as scum and manipulated me throughout the game till I sided with him in LyLo and lost the game for town and said I'd vote Pine every game we play together that has daytalk.

I'd love to be able to tell mods in advance what roles to give Pine and I but the likelihood of me playing a game with Pine and I on opposite factions to set up a grudge vote scum theatre just for this game IF we both happened to roll scum would be a god like miracle. However, as much as I wish that was actually true, it is literally a close to impossible scenario, ergo the most logical conclusion is to not treat it as such and wait for more substance throughout the thread before you think you honestly caught 2/X scums when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them.

You are claiming that it is very unlikely, for both you and Pine to both be scum in the same game, however the roles are chosen randomly, and I believe in a random order. So just for the sake of it, lets say we had 10 towns in this game, and 9 scum, it is unlikely but go with it. If Pine was first to get a role, then you, there'd still be a high chance of you both being scum:
For Pine to be Scum: 9/19
If Pine is Scum, For Gin to be scum: 8/18
Therefore, For both to be Scum: Roughly 21/100

So it wouldn't be a 'god like miracle', ever.

Also another thing, when voting for somebody, you might thing they are suspicious or whatever. Therefore I have a question for you. If you are wanting to vote Pine, and argue for the vote on Pine, why are you suggesting he might not be scum via the 'when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them'???

UNVOTE: Alisae
VOTE: TheRealGin-N-Tonic

And, the reason for this totally useless nonsense is _____?

4-5 scum is a more logical coonclusion for the scum ratio. 9 scum in a 19p NORMAL game has probably a 1 in a Million chance AT BEST. (Most likely, there is a 0 zero chance of that happening cuz that makes Day 1 LyLo and could still screw town w/ a perfect game if it's multiball)

4/19 * 3/18 = 12 / (152 + 190) = 12 / 342 = 4 / 114 = 2 / 57 or <4% chance.
VOTE: Debi

All of my workings out thus far have been examples. Of course I don't know how this forum works as to faction ratios, so you'll have to forgive me for that, so if somebody would to be so kind at to post a normal ratio, I would be very grateful!

Also, I don't think that any of it is 'totally useless nonsense'. I wanted to pressurise Gin so I did, everything in there is completely logical to be honest, he did contradict himself, by saying that Pine might be innocent even though he voted for Pine. Which of course is true, you vote somebody either for a reaction, for a joke, or because you think they are scum. We can rule out that it was for a reaction, as he has stuck to the basis of his vote for a while now, trying to prove it was a good vote. If it was for a joke, and not for a reaction, then he wouldn't have gone so far as to prove his point to us, regarding his vote. Therefore, it must have been because he thinks or thought, that Pine is scum. Therefore if you think somebody is scum, try to get people to think that they are also scum, then suggest they are town, is contradictory.

PS: I'd still like the answer for the question Gin:
Also another thing, when voting for somebody, you might thing they are suspicious or whatever. Therefore I have a question for you. If you are wanting to vote Pine, and argue for the vote on Pine, why are you suggesting he might not be scum via the 'when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them'???

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Lol Debi, You don't get the context as to why it's actually a god like miracle and because you opened to the door to the maths, let's do it. (I'll also go over your other concerns but let me have some fun here)

Spoiler: Maths for the fuck of it

I have two completed games under my belt and then this one I'm playing. So far out of all 3 of them, Pine has been them all.

Now the first game was the HungerGames Round 2 and that contained 17 players and there was 4 evil roles so we start out as me landing scum with a 4/17 chance. Now we multiply that by the Pine having the slot of scum as well so it's 3/16. Let us not forget that Pine also replaced in to a scum slot so that's a 3/16 chance he had the chance of replacing in to a scum slot and join me with day talk which is a 1/2 chance of being included.

Next, we move onto a game we just had where we had 5/8 townies and that was my chance of landing townie and 3/7 chance for Pine to land scum that game and again, 1/2 chance of having a game together with day talk.

Finally, this is where we do a little assuming here but I doubt the maths change would be astronomical. We assume a 4:1 ratio of scum meaning we have 5 scums this game, Now by the way the PM was worded, I'm going to go under the premise of a 5 man scum game meaning there would be a 5/19 chance I roll scum and for Pine a 4/18 chance he's scum.

After multiplying by 100 to give us percent, we get

0.006475749% chance that all of this has occurred so Pine and I could use that as scum theatre.

[Wraith]

I think Debi just made a dumb assumption rather than showing actual knowledge.

Eh, yeah it could be a "culture shock" kind of thing since we know her regular forum isn't dedicated to the game like this one is, and so we don't know how they make setups or if they're balanced or what.

[Ircher]

Also no I am not an alt, I used to do mafia a lot of another forum is all, new things here such as what OMGUS or WIFOM have been explained to me via Wiki or other sources. This is my first time on this forum.

Creature if it was A ratio of Town:Scum:Other it would probably be 7:6:6:
So it would be:
For pine to be scum: 6/19
If Pine is Scum, For Gin to be Scum: 5/18
For both it is roughly 1/11:
Meaning there is a 1/11 chance they are both Scum, but of course it is just a hypothesis.

PS: Genuinely not an alt, you can ask for my IP if you need some evidence.
PSS: Alisae is a Steam friend

Please stop with your ridiculous assumptions.

[Wraith]

@Debi: IIRC normal ratio for singleball is 1/4 scum-to-town.

[Ircher]

Ircher why don't you attempt to ask where he has played instead of trying to get a sense of what his normalcy is?

Cuz those are insane and illogical ratios, even if you are used to such, for a game that has been approved to be balanced BY 3 people.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Also another thing, when voting for somebody, you might thing they are suspicious or whatever. Therefore I have a question for you. If you are wanting to vote Pine, and argue for the vote on Pine, why are you suggesting he might not be scum via the 'when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them'???

UNVOTE: Alisae
VOTE: TheRealGin-N-Tonic

Grudge votes are part of the RVS stage. I don't know his alignment and I moved onto Creature so if you're saying I've been pushing a Pine lynch that's a misrep.

[Ircher]

Sorry a little disclaimer before I go into any bigger posts later on:
I have problems with wording sometimes
Also its REALLY hard to read considering how quickly you are posting

Thats fine, but please explain to me where your assumptions cane from.

[Creature]

Singleball is usually:
T = (M x 3) + 1
Where T is the number of town and M the number of mafia.

[Debi]

I'm the one getting called out for 'Over thinking'
The entire probability part of my post was solely to prove that it wouldn't be a 'god like miracle', it hasn't been to prove that somebody is or isn't Scum. I haven't claimed anybody as Scum yet, only listed that I am suspicious of people. By suspicious, I mean that I currently or once thought, that they were or are not town.
Also to quote myself:
'So just for the sake of it, lets say we had 10 towns in this game, and 9 scum,'
Doesn't that tell you that it was just an example. I have no idea if it 10:9 or anything. At the time when I did it, it was due to the fact I didn't know if there was a 3rd faction or not. the 10 and the 9 are merely random numbers I chose.

[Creature]

Btw, did anyone check the forums Debi linked to see if their games are usually 10v9?

[Alisae]

Dear Gin and Debi
Maths are killing me, please send help
Love, Alisae

[Ircher]

TheRealGin-N-Tonic, there is something I'm failing to understand to do with your current actions in the round. You have voted to lynch Pine, which is all well and done, at this point in the game, 99% of the votes, won't have any ulterior motive behind them whatsoever, which is fine, if you don't have any main reason to be voting for Pine. However, you have currently created a contradiction, when trying to prove that your vote on Pine is legit, and has reasoning. The main problem with it, is as below:

It might be one-sided on Pine's side considering he's only made one post showing he's online but stopped saying anything afterwards, however on my end, to give you context to the vote, I recently played a game as an IC and Pine had day talk as scum and manipulated me throughout the game till I sided with him in LyLo and lost the game for town and said I'd vote Pine every game we play together that has daytalk.

I'd love to be able to tell mods in advance what roles to give Pine and I but the likelihood of me playing a game with Pine and I on opposite factions to set up a grudge vote scum theatre just for this game IF we both happened to roll scum would be a god like miracle. However, as much as I wish that was actually true, it is literally a close to impossible scenario, ergo the most logical conclusion is to not treat it as such and wait for more substance throughout the thread before you think you honestly caught 2/X scums when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them.

You are claiming that it is very unlikely, for both you and Pine to both be scum in the same game, however the roles are chosen randomly, and I believe in a random order. So just for the sake of it, lets say we had 10 towns in this game, and 9 scum, it is unlikely but go with it. If Pine was first to get a role, then you, there'd still be a high chance of you both being scum:
For Pine to be Scum: 9/19
If Pine is Scum, For Gin to be scum: 8/18
Therefore, For both to be Scum: Roughly 21/100

So it wouldn't be a 'god like miracle', ever.

Also another thing, when voting for somebody, you might thing they are suspicious or whatever. Therefore I have a question for you. If you are wanting to vote Pine, and argue for the vote on Pine, why are you suggesting he might not be scum via the 'when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them'???

UNVOTE: Alisae
VOTE: TheRealGin-N-Tonic

And, the reason for this totally useless nonsense is _____?

4-5 scum is a more logical coonclusion for the scum ratio. 9 scum in a 19p NORMAL game has probably a 1 in a Million chance AT BEST. (Most likely, there is a 0 zero chance of that happening cuz that makes Day 1 LyLo and could still screw town w/ a perfect game if it's multiball)

4/19 * 3/18 = 12 / (152 + 190) = 12 / 342 = 4 / 114 = 2 / 57 or <4% chance.
VOTE: Debi

I agree. Assuming 9 scum right off the bat implies foreknowledge of the setup, which in this case means scum. It's also such an absurd ratio that it would have to mean multiball.

Vote: Debi

And this is also just bad. It's not extra info, it's just absurd assumptions to try to get someone lynched. Huge difference.

[Ircher]

I think Debi just made a dumb assumption rather than showing actual knowledge.

It's a possibility (and right now, Wraith's leap is a lot scummier than Debi's assumptions), but it is still a pretty far-fetched assumption to make, esp. when it's part of the reasoning for voting someone.

[Debi]

Also another thing, when voting for somebody, you might thing they are suspicious or whatever. Therefore I have a question for you. If you are wanting to vote Pine, and argue for the vote on Pine, why are you suggesting he might not be scum via the 'when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them'???

UNVOTE: Alisae
VOTE: TheRealGin-N-Tonic

Grudge votes are part of the RVS stage. I don't know his alignment and I moved onto Creature so if you're saying I've been pushing a Pine lynch that's a misrep.

If its OK, can I have your reason as to why you switched to Creature? It is easily interpretable that you changed vote afterwards to try and get rid of suspicions. I'd just like proof that this isn't the case.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

This setup talk is just noise to be honest. Stop.

[Wraith]

I agree. Assuming 9 scum right off the bat implies foreknowledge of the setup, which in this case means scum. It's also such an absurd ratio that it would have to mean multiball.

Vote: Debi

And this is also just bad. It's not extra info, it's just absurd assumptions to try to get someone lynched. Huge difference.

They're not mutually exclusive

[Creature]

The assumption doesn't really make sense for it to be scum motivated other than "trying to look dumb".

[Ircher]

VOTE: Wraith

Your assumption is more egregious than Debi's.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

If its OK, can I have your reason as to why you switched to Creature? It is easily interpretable that you changed vote afterwards to try and get rid of suspicions. I'd just like proof that this isn't the case.

Okay, I'll just lurk

through all the first 3 days so scum won't kill me early. Hopefully scum are lynched meanwhile.

Counting the ones I played somewhat relevantly:

Micro 597: Went super aggressive but didn't try to look like I was solving anything
Mini 1787: Showed obvious scum motivation
Newbie 1703:

Lurked, been called lurker lot of times

Open 643:

Lurked and eventually flaked out

Micro 619:

Lurked and coasted

Wake's Role Madness:

Lurked and coasted

The Walking Dead:

Lurked a lot

, my other hydra head had to do the most
Micro 647: Was actually towny there, but still lurked a bit

Likely all very different from my townplay

He also lurked in the Hungergames which is where this quote came from in the scum chat.

[Alisae]

Ircher why don't you attempt to ask where he has played instead of trying to get a sense of what his normalcy is?

Cuz those are insane and illogical ratios, even if you are used to such, for a game that has been approved to be balanced BY 3 people.

Yeah you're right, that is insane.
Derp moment, my bad

[Creature]

Speech vs Attitude