Mini 1856: Spectator's PT

[mhsmith0]

Oh so aero is actually not sk just took an atrocity of a shot.

Also one shot bp traitor is MORE powerful than goon if he doesn't get endgamed. Obscures relationships, and prevents traitor death by mafia/vig (always a danger w traitor).

Town SHOULD win I guess d4.

[mhsmith0]

But it was pretty freaking obvious that I was potentially self-clearing on N2 given my claim. I'd presume I was NK'd anyway so it didn't REALLY matter, and Aero going 1/2 is fine, but jeez what a bad vig shot there.

[mhsmith0]

I was thinking, what if whoever's the missing maf if existant and not bee didnt kill coz they figured i'd roleblock bee.
Shouldn't we go no lynch and then i roleblock bee again to be sure?

No lynching with 9p alive
Just mislynch beeboy and then Rb the NEXT suspect. It's very very very very very clearly not LYLO or close to it. No lynching here is explicitly horrific (especially if aero shoots beeboy N3 because "hey top suspect").

[mhsmith0]

Oh, and because traitor can't kill and there's no cop, it will take a looooooong time to figure out pisskop lol

So it's essentially mountainous once they lynch aero (whose shot last night was borderline SK claim). With an IC on the board, that's going to be SUPER hard for scum to win, and outright impossible if people continue to believe pie's backup IC claim (barring aero shooting pie i guess). I wouldn't call it yet but it's getting pretty close to that point i think.

[mhsmith0]

So it's essentially

mountainous

NIGHTLESS once they lynch aero (whose shot last night was borderline SK claim). With an IC on the board, that's going to be SUPER hard for scum to win, and outright impossible if people continue to believe pie's backup IC claim (barring aero shooting pie i guess). I wouldn't call it yet but it's getting pretty close to that point i think.

EBWOP

[mhsmith0]

Theoretically aero should just holster but who knows. I feel like he's gonna be the d4 lynch if town is solving, just in order to force rb results to be "meaningful" if nothing else.

[mhsmith0]

dwlee next, I think.

vote: dwlee

I think probably we should either wait another night on beeboy or just let Aero shoot him.

Pie in what world is Beeboy being blocked and there being no kill not clear to you

I mean, my first thought was scum shot me since I was gonna self clear. So it's kinda nonsense reasoning.

[mhsmith0]

inb4 paranoia lynch on me because killing me is literally going to lose the scum the game. :p

How brazen

[mhsmith0]

Btw is remilia scarlet a gif alt or what?

[mhsmith0]

Pisskop borderline open wolfing, but dwlee joining him. Lolwillage?

[mhsmith0]

This game is super boring to watch rn

[mhsmith0]

here's the issue with this game.

I think I know who the other WW is if we're in a 9-2-2 scenario, and if it's who I think it is, literally fuck this game.

It's actually me! Surprise!

Spoiler:

oh wait lol not it isn't

[mhsmith0]

I'd be surprised if it gets there. It's locked unless pisskop can make pie dead somehow, and without a nk I don't see it at all.

[mhsmith0]

This game was I think pretty unbalanced, I'm just happy I didn't rand wolf in it (my luck w these kinds of games is not good). Probably scum needed to kill the ic n1 but whoever knows that that's the case ahead of time?

[mhsmith0]

Traitor didn't know scum and gets no nk? Lol ouch

[mhsmith0]

Original setup

10x "congrats on free win". PMs
3x "lol enjoy getting rekt" PMs

[mhsmith0]

Part of me wants a scum win for the hilarity, but I'm back to .500 and actually want to rise above again.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah either endgame him or give him a kill next time. This is just going to DRAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGG...

[mhsmith0]

Pisskop uninformed traitor scum without kill. All others town.

[mhsmith0]

This game will very very slowly drag to finish, only ? Is if pisskop can clear out most of the non IC players before dying.

[mhsmith0]

PK cannot win without pie getting mislynched, and is kinda being clear about really wanting her dead.

[mhsmith0]

one would think. i'll call it 10% odds because I'm a cynic.

[mhsmith0]

Mod literally just spewed that there isn't an arsonist (3/3 no kills = draw doesnt work at all if arsonist is priming), hopefully this gets noticed.

[mhsmith0]

Lol

[mhsmith0]

My bah was better
Lol that town is gonna turn a lock win into a draw

[mhsmith0]

really dislike cakey posting that in thread. i generally prefer mod communications to be not in thread, because it creates a potentially nasty situation where a mod has to confirm that someone isn't lying, which I think isn't optimal at all.

[mhsmith0]

Holy crap this is ridiculous. They're screwing around with "coordinating" what to do if YET AGAIN they don't lynch, in a situation where scum is mechanically either:

1) Forced to not kill (via roleblock or factional kill lack or whatever)
2) Actively choosing to not kill (for whatever reason)

They're literally looking their gift horse in the mouth at this point. Scum can't or won't kill? Great! More day lynches and voting data to sort.

[mhsmith0]

I mean, I guess I can vaguely see the possibility of being paranoid about a 9/2/2 format, but that would require, from the mystery scum team #2...

1) Night 1: to have either intentionally chosen to no kill (or been mechanically forced not to kill) or to have bizarrely chosen to shoot varsoon instead of someone that was potentially self-clearing like pie
2) Night 2: to have either intentionally chosen to no kill (or been mechanically forced not to kill) or to have chosen to shoot me (this is semi-bizarre, though my "I'm going to self-clear" bit MIGHT have pinged such a team I guess
3) Night 3: to have either intentionally chosen to no kill (or been mechanically forced not to kill) or to have bizarrely chosen to shoot beeboy instead of someone that was potentially self-clearing like pie, or an actual town PR (unless you think cakey/luna make sense as a combined team #2)
4) Night 4: to have either intentionally chosen to no kill (or been mechanically forced not to kill)

9/2/2 literally makes no sense whatsoever; night 3 in particular just screams out that there could not reasonably have been a 2nd team at work. So you're left with:

10/3, in which case you just lynch someone scummy and force scum to no kill
9/4, in which case either scum can't kill or it's probably just a troll game anyway, and in either case you need to lynch

[mhsmith0]

I approve

[mhsmith0]

le sigh.

I dont think blocking proves anything because scum cant kill

But sure.

cakez is a lynch

Not even trying to hide it anymore

[mhsmith0]

this game is so pointless, it's effectively locked without night kills, just running out the clock. if town decides to HEA pisskop I'm going to be super pissed off though

[mhsmith0]

2. I went back and reviewed Luna again, and I still feel very good about her being among the set of players we're making dead. in fact, barring what she did with beeboy, I've actually arrived at a scum read on the rest of her play after reviewing it. again, might explain this in a separate post but I feel pretty OK with the idea of lynching her before pisskop here since I still don't really see pisskop's play here making sense coming from scum.

Ok that's just embarrassing now
Doesn't really matter since scum can't kill but this is the sort of thing that actually makes happily ever after actually possible, which WOULD be embarrassing

[mhsmith0]

I dunno
Did u leave because busy or was it the game just turning unpleasant?

[mhsmith0]

Understandable, I kinda felt the same way about Luna v beeboy d1 tbh and various other back and forths. Part of why I just wanted d1 to be over with, which apparently was scummy of me

[mhsmith0]

I'm glad to see this game has gotten even more ridiculous. "things that happen when smith is town"

[mhsmith0]

Technically only a lynch on the ic or backup ic can cost town the game. And neither will actually happen. But yeah this is incredibly sad.

[mhsmith0]

fortunately town is still gonna win this like 90% of the time just due to mechanics, but it's still just not a fun wya for it to go down. town played well at the beginning, but is bleeding away that advantage

[mhsmith0]

The notion that Luna, as scum, would not have made it utterly clear what she was fake-claiming in the scum PT is beyond ridiculous. This is the epitome of taking something fundamentally null (and is just dumb play as either alignment) and twisting it into a "scum slip". If I didn't know better, I would say that pie is scum here.

[mhsmith0]

I mean, knowing her alignment, I now know it's conf!bias at work, but it's a valid cause for concern.

That said, mechanically speaking, lynching cakez was an absolute atrocity. Cakez LITERALLY CANNOT be a strongman in any reasonable setup, since he's already used multiple tracker shots (JOAT of like 2x tracker 1x strongman is inherently ridiculous). So if the plan is pisskop->cakez or cakez->pisskop, when pisskop mechanically COULD be a strongman (since all you know is multi-neighbor), then you always lynch pisskop first.

Of course, teh vig on me was also bad given that I was about to self-clear, but a N1 correct vig and an N2 blown vig is overall a pretty good record so I can't really complain too much.

[mhsmith0]

Mod error wooo

ooh those are always fun
i had one in the last mini normal i modded where i forgot that someone hadn't consented to speed deadlines
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p8605719
was not fun
fortunately it didn't break the game

[mhsmith0]

the funny thing is when you died i thought scum had shot you.
P-Edit: @ mhsmith

I did too
thought aero claimed sk with that shot
oops

[mhsmith0]

Yeah there's PK fishing for a lynch in the ICs

towns continued inability to distinguish from someone being nakedly stupid (dom - with a side of mod error) and someone actively pursuing scum wincon (PK) is increasingly embarrasing

[mhsmith0]

i am going to continue to not spectate this game because i feel like it would not be good for my health if i did

as long as you're willing to laugh about it and not get upset you should be fine. I'm already mentally preparing for a scum win and my inevitable postgame comments like

"This is what happens when smith rands town"
and
"This would never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever happen when smith randed wolf"

[mhsmith0]

i'm actually not 100% opposed to being lynched.

It means pieguyn is confirmed tomorrow either way (as town or scum, that is) and then chooses who she wants to take to the end of the game.

Alternatively, scum reveals they can kill, pieguyn dies at night, and whoever Dominator blocked decides between the final two unclears.

Neither is exactly a terrible situation.

like, I'm not even mad at this point, just laughing

[mhsmith0]

I think that nahdia should reveal IC. If he does that will comfirm pie as well.

(don't mean this in an accusatory way so much as if you're town you weren't here and probably not aware of this) we've considered this and this is impossible because if we do this it means pisskop is pretty much guaranteed to just vote me 100% of the time regardless of what happens, even though in any logical universe it'd confirm me along with them. yes, I'm aware of how incredibly stupid it is. we all are, we've tried.

Why everyone continues to ignore the very very obvious possible explanation here (i.e. because PK is scum) continues to baffle me.

[mhsmith0]

I mean, it's not even just pie at this point. Literally everyone has decided that he's not worth thinking about or even just policy lynching for *reasons*

[mhsmith0]

now that fakegod's game is over I don't have to avoid discussion on it

pie hated my comparing her to titus in that game, but she's gone full titus in this game. have a read (in this case PK as town), blindly defend it, engage in no rethinking whatsoever of that read, allow that read to flow through to conf!biasing everything else she sees too.

if scum actually could kill it would be a great case study in how an overconfident townie can utterly destroy a town. mechanically town still should win but it never should have gotten this close.

[mhsmith0]

THEY COULD FUCKING KILL DOM SCOT FREE

I think he's banking on no one actually reading what he's saying at this point?

Well it's worked so far...

[mhsmith0]

you still refuse to engage with the actual point I'm making here: that from your POV, with the belief you have expressed that Nahdia revealing would make me town, having Nahdia reveal would be a game throw due to the way pisskop is acting, and yet you still hard push for it anyway (even after I've pointed this out several times).

why? because you don't give a shit. you want town to throw the game and not realize what they did until it's too late.

For the record gamma. If nahdia and pie are scum and you vote me I'm baming you for the loss

Dom has done a bad job of clearly explaining why he wants Nahdia to reveal, but the logic remains pretty obvious. It COULD be something weird like 9/4 or 9/2/2 without scum getting factional kills, and being concerned about the possibility is entirely reasonable.

[mhsmith0]

Why read when you can just tunnel and conf!bias instead?

[mhsmith0]

Remember we had those discussions about why towns need a LOT of help in mini normal design? Just remember, this is a MORE veteran town than you usually see.

[mhsmith0]

my initial thought overnight was that it's GE and that I shouldn't think

overthink things

.

I fixed the typos

[mhsmith0]

FWIW, this game is sufficiently town-sided that it's not totally inconceivable that scum would be explicitly given fakeclaims like backup IC, so I wouldn't call that in and of itself a super strong point.

[mhsmith0]

Why I am town:

- I just rolled scum in like 2 of my last 3 games. -> odds are heavily against it mechanically.
- I caught Wis and outed Varsoon. -> did we forget that Bboy and dwelee happened? They go out of their way to explain how I outed the hood and was hunting with my role.
- I am not acting like my scum game. and even pie has admitted it. dont think, at least. the curse of self-meta and all. Self-meta is a bad practice for many reasons, but you are a poor neutral observer of yourself.
- I am putting in effort into this. Normally effort is something I save for school and the gym.

[mhsmith0]

[mhsmith0]

[mhsmith0]

I give PK about a 1/3 chance of winning here. He's working Nahdia in a smoother manner than Pie did, and I'd say realistic odds it works.

[mhsmith0]

I'm happy pisskop is doubling down on the ridiculous gamblers fallacy argument, because it actually seems like nahdia is buying the rest of the silliness he's selling.

[mhsmith0]

Not at all.

The cumulative average of several events transpiring and the average of a single event occurring are entirely different things. you'll learn that in statistics 101 if you ever bother to get a higher education.

Having an actual background in statistics AND a university education, I can say that, beyond the needless obnoxiousness of the post, that PK's point is itself ridiculous. The probability of him randing scum here, GIVEN that he randed scum in let's say his last two games (or whatever) are exactly the same (barring GIF bastard behavior which I doubt) as the odds of him randing scum in this game had he randed town the last two games.

[mhsmith0]

Lock was odd...

[mhsmith0]

My guess is a civility timeout but idk, could be a hood quoting violation. Would be a silly way for game to end but so it goes sometimes

[mhsmith0]

[mhsmith0]