Micro 673: Bee Movie Mafia (Game Over)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #2 (isolation #0) » Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:14 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

Theorem

The more Creature posts, the more likely he is to be town. Thus, we can calculate the probability he is town this game.

Proof

Spoiler:
Percentage of Posts Belonging to town!Creature in 9 player games

note: counts of total posts stop as soon as the last flip of the game occurs or creature flips
  • GameProportion of PostsPercentage
    Newbie 1683160/122313.1%
    Micro 60077/10557.3%
    Micro 61030/25112.0%
    Newbie 1696147/94515.6%
    Micro 62096/81311.8%
    Micro 61267/6969.6%
    Newbie 1715211/99021.3%
    Micro 63152/34415.1%
    Newbie 1725284/113325.1%
    Open 64196/43222.2%
    Micro 646143/66921.4%
    Micro 645164/88518.5%
    Micro 652110/41626.4%
    Newbie 1743227/89325.4%
    Micro 650175/116815.0%

    Mean: 16.4%
    Standard Deviation: 6.2%
Percentage of Posts Belonging to scum!Creature in 9 player games
  • GameProportion of PostsPercentage
    Micro 6018/1944.1%
    Micro 59794/63814.7%
    Newbie 1703135/15298.8%
    Micro 61959/11085.3%
    Micro 64757/55110.3%
    Micro 65717/2008.5%
    Newbie 1752178/89519.9%

    Mean: 10.2%
    Standard Deviation: 5.1%
Percentage of Posts Belonging to Creature this game
  • 0/1 (0%)
Calculations
  • Z-score: (0 - 16.4) / 6.2 = -2.65
    Image
    p = .0041

    Z-score: (0 - 10.2) / 5.1 = -2
    Image
    p = .0238

    .0041 - .0238 = -.0197


Conclusion

Creature is 2% less likely to be town than normal this game.

VOTE: Creature


basically-confscum gogogogogogogo
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Post Post #9 (isolation #1) » Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:05 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 8, Dunnstral wrote:Wow, I wonder who nitroglycerin could bee

me too

also how do you guys feel about signing posts

shadow and i are basically polar opposites so we should be easy to differentiate and also signing takes effort to remember so

~giggles
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Post Post #11 (isolation #2) » Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:36 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

how is 9 a faked interaction
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Post Post #13 (isolation #3) » Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:37 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

oh lol

i had like a week to make that post i did it pre-game. data is fun

plus it's 3 am rn
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Post Post #14 (isolation #4) » Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:38 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

and also why are you already assuming creature town
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Post Post #16 (isolation #5) » Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:41 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

good luck with that lmfao
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Post Post #21 (isolation #6) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:03 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

good to know i didn't make a Type I error here

though Dunn is the better lynch because 10 was a scumclaim. plus if i'm wrong about creature he'll obvtown later while i have zero tolerance for this dunn's fuckery this game tbh

HS please obvtown in your confirmation so i can get a decent townbloc of 4 and win this game for town ty
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Post Post #23 (isolation #7) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:13 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

it's all me

detective giggles is on the case
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Post Post #24 (isolation #8) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:13 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

shadow actually hasn't checked in yet :dead:
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Post Post #27 (isolation #9) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:16 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 25, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 21, Nitroglycerin wrote:i have zero tolerance for this dunn's fuckery this game tbh
The heck is this supposed to mean
i enjoy your fuckery when you are town

you're scum here and i'm already annoyed :dead: :dead:

also which of beeboy and guilty (or both) is town in that case??
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Post Post #29 (isolation #10) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:19 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 28, Dunnstral wrote:there's 3 mafia
i'm sure
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Post Post #31 (isolation #11) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:22 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

ok seriously i have to ask if you already have a poe scumread

what the fuck are your reads
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Post Post #33 (isolation #12) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:29 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

the game hasnt started and i'm already dunn :dead:
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Post Post #37 (isolation #13) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:04 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

The dark overlord is here.

~Ss
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Post Post #39 (isolation #14) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:05 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

VOTE: Dunnstral

everyone confirmed so let's do this shit :dead:

~giggles
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Post Post #40 (isolation #15) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:05 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

yeah hs is town g2k

~giggles
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Post Post #42 (isolation #16) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:12 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 40, Nitroglycerin wrote:yeah hs is town g2k
She's joking. Not AI

~Ss
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Post Post #44 (isolation #17) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:14 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 8, Dunnstral wrote:Wow, I wonder who nitroglycerin could bee
Even when it says in the sig?

~Ss
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Post Post #49 (isolation #18) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:16 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 48, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:
In post 46, Maxous wrote:Neither of them are a bee though.

VOTE: GuiltyLion
If we can vote now
why is guilty a better vote than dunn or creature?
In post 47, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:
In post 41, Human Sequencer wrote:
In post 40, Nitroglycerin wrote:yeah hs is town g2k

~giggles
are you memeing, and if not, where is the basis for this read?
same question for your read on dunn

i hope you know i choose to read your signature as you letting out a giggle every time you finish a post
actually i'm not memeing :dead: :dead:

Your RVS vote felt genuine in terms of like reaction time and i liked the tone of it. townier than TB and about equal to max's entrance

Dunn feels like he's trying to make a quirky push and i don't think he believed in it, like there's no way i could be "forcing an interaction on a townie" with my rvs vote because that implies it has scum motivation when it was written as soon as the playerlist came out so :dead: . plus i feel like he's backpedaling from it too tbh

kind of reminds me of the dunn from KT's game that i only watched for like part of D1 because the kraska push was nauseating to watch

i like to think of myself as "not male" rather than female :dead:

giggle read is totally accurate btw that's how i talk irl lmfao

also lmfao where did u get ur impression of me i'm kind of concerned because my last set of town games were really awful because of a depressive episode i had

shadow isnt really my type either, the guys i go for are generally more gentle and soft-spoken :dead: (plus im in a relationship)

agreed we're an interesting combo tho lmfao
booo im awful
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Post Post #50 (isolation #19) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:17 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

it's funny because i'm simultaneously using sessionbox and different themes at the same time and i fuck up twice :dead:
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Post Post #51 (isolation #20) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:40 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 0, Aeronaut wrote:According to all known laws of aviation, there is no way a bee should be able to fly. Its wings are too small to get its fat little body off the ground. The bee, of course, flies anyway because bees don't care what humans think is impossible.
Read this and it reminded me of Muhammad Ali's famous quote. It should be changed to sting like a "bullet ant" really! [youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHrjgWoy8qY[/youtube]

~Ss
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Post Post #52 (isolation #21) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:42 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

EBWOP
In post 51, Nitroglycerin wrote:
In post 0, Aeronaut wrote:According to all known laws of aviation, there is no way a bee should be able to fly. Its wings are too small to get its fat little body off the ground. The bee, of course, flies anyway because bees don't care what humans think is impossible.
Read this and it reminded me of Muhammad Ali's famous quote. It should be changed to sting like a "bullet ant" really!
~Ss
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Post Post #53 (isolation #22) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:49 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

i get it now

i'm still townreading hs shadow sorry :dead:
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Post Post #56 (isolation #23) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:08 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

VOTE: Dunnstral

oh i thought it'd count before :dead:

~giggles
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Post Post #59 (isolation #24) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:13 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 57, ThinkBig wrote:The votes during the pregame are automatically reset and don't count.
no i know but like after hs confirmed i thought pregame ended :dead:
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Post Post #60 (isolation #25) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:14 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 54, Aeronaut wrote:
- VoteCount 1.0 -

With 9 players still alive, it's 5 to lynch!


Yellow, black. Yellow, black.
Yellow, black. Yellow, black.


[L-5]
Human Sequencer -
[L-5]
Maxous -
[L-5]
GuiltyLion -
[L-5]
ThinkBig -
[L-5]
beeboy -
[L-5]
Creature -
[L-5]
Drone -
[L-5]
Nitroglycerin -
[L-5]
Dunnstral -

Just Buzzing
-
Human Sequencer, Maxous, GuiltyLion, ThinkBig, Beeboy, Creature, Drone, Nitroglycerin, Dunnstral



Day 1 ends in (expired on 2017-01-17 15:00:00)
also @mod i love me some futura :up: :up:

it pairs nicely with minion pro if you want to use a sans/serif combo
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Post Post #63 (isolation #26) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:19 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

wait sugarnips was you?? :dead: lmfao

that game was a wreck because i got way too heated arguing with obvscum because no one was posting so i thought they were being townread

good vote btw
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Post Post #87 (isolation #27) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:31 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 82, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 49, Nitroglycerin wrote:
In post 48, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:
In post 46, Maxous wrote:Neither of them are a bee though.

VOTE: GuiltyLion
If we can vote now
why is guilty a better vote than dunn or creature?
didn't like this post. I think a townie who wanted to build a wagon would ask something in the vein of "why not vote dunn/creature", rather than assuming Max's vote wasn't RVS and that he had a "better" reason to vote me. Feels like a leading question.

VOTE: Nitroglycerin
I don't really see how that's a different question or what I asked is leading...?

Voting for you at that point is an empty vote at that time, while I think the other two options had posted enough content to develop an opinion of them...

i'm assuming that people are making what they feel is the best vote unless they say otherwise... Correct me if I'm wrong but that's a totally normal assumption?? but basically why make an empty vote if there's already AI content? i think that's a completely valid question

plus all you posted was a confirm so i'm not really sure why someone would make a non-rvs vote on you at that stage :dead:

@TB, I think that's a silly reason to vote someone, Beeboy isn't the one at L-2 so he's not in danger of being lolhammered just yet. What do you make of GuiltyLion's vote?

@Everyone, I have 4 townreads so this game is basically won :dead:
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Post Post #88 (isolation #28) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:32 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 75, Dunnstral wrote:Alright listen up everybody

everything I said from post 28 and before


was a joke :)
that's what they always say :dead: :dead:
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Post Post #89 (isolation #29) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:37 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 85, Maxous wrote:If we're "well past RVS" then where is your post-RVS thoughts/analysis?
In post 83, Maxous wrote:VOTE: beeboy
max could you answer my question from before

mostly because i'm well out of rvs and i want to know why you aren't basically :dead:
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Post Post #92 (isolation #30) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:06 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

gun to head says town :dead:
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Post Post #98 (isolation #31) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:01 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

this is a bad counterwagon :dead: :dead:
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Post Post #100 (isolation #32) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:05 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

why are you expecting me get off of you if i scumread you :dead:
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Post Post #103 (isolation #33) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:21 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 101, Dunnstral wrote:Your read is intellectually lazy and I don't like your doing nothing
I don't see how "Your push on me earlier was nonsense and I don't really believe that it was in jest (and you calling it as such/making shitposts about there being 3 mafia feels like backpedaling after i called you on that)" is that intellectually lazy especially for like page 5? What would be a better vote in my position?

and people are still in rvs somehow so i'd say asking a question and having reads on every slot is doing something at this point of the game :dead:
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Post Post #105 (isolation #34) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:27 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 104, Dunnstral wrote:I don't think you'd be ok with a lynch this early if you were town
what is that based on

my playstyle evolved significantly from 649 and this is a micro (where getting reads is easier for me because you just need 4 townreads to win the game basically) so
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Post Post #108 (isolation #35) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:12 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 107, Drone wrote:What point is it? And what do you expect to happen?
I mean, not everyone posted yet.
Whom are you reading and what are you reading them?
"at this point of the game" as in the weird transition between RVS and like the first serious wagon i guess? what comes after rvs

like some people "got serious" (me) while others are still random voting (Maxous, Beeboy). i disagree that not everyone posted btw, but not everyone is really in a non-RVS mindset yet

usually it's a clusterfuck because no one is really on the same page so reads aren't going to be super developed

i am reading every slot as something, but i'll get into specifics once TB answers my question first :dead:
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Post Post #111 (isolation #36) » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:40 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 110, Drone wrote:Yo Gigabyte, you two should use your original avi.
It's epic.
?

if you mean laborwave rosa that's not my original avatar (nor does it fit the hydra theme :dead: )

if you mean the christopher hart drawing A: how do you know about that, and B: no lmfaooo

usually once i make an avatar from scratch it sticks

also remind me to ask you for thoughts on the Dunnstral wagon once i give you my readlist
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Post Post #118 (isolation #37) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:08 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 117, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:
In post 113, Human Sequencer wrote:nitroglycerin really confuses me so far. hydras are difficult to play with. can one of you lost interest in this game so the slot becomes really easy to read, a la dartvader in equilibrium mafia? thx
probably not

What's confusing about us? It's mostly me (giggles) posting, I think the only game relevant thing Shadow has posted is where he says that my tr of you isn't serious but we cleared up the dissonance in the pt so...?

btw the dissonance doesn't have to be cleared up here because there's no longer dissonance
mobile hydras are hard
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Post Post #126 (isolation #38) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:33 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 123, Human Sequencer wrote:VOTE: beeboy
because my gut tells me to
whaaaaaat

those posts were super town >:/

also maxous's vote is good and i could swing that way

max i kind of disagree with your philosophy in 124 (in that it would help scumhunting) but i don't think it's scummy
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Post Post #127 (isolation #39) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:36 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

also on 119 im basically the same way so i feel

i've never actually had to read a hydra before now that i think of it
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Post Post #129 (isolation #40) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:41 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 120, beeboy wrote:I don't think ThinkBig has a reason to be suspicious of that post so I might as well vote him since I have nothing better to do with it atm.
something about this just felt really genuine

i guess it's the belief that there's no reason he should he suspected for his initial vote/that post that seems town to me? i would think that maybe scum approaches this vote by attacking a presumed reasoning rather than this

rereadinng i guess it wasn't as crazy town as i thought but this part still really sticks out to me
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Post Post #131 (isolation #41) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:44 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

honestly i'm more fun as scum because throwing fake bullshit is funny and it's my favorite part of this game :dead:

but likewise
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Post Post #145 (isolation #42) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:01 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

HS why am i vibing with you but like disagreeing with your every move

VOTE: Creature

bigger wagon on a scumread :dead:

and honestly the more confident read now
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Post Post #150 (isolation #43) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:06 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 149, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:maxous and guilty are good reads at least

yeah im shit too at this game no one's good tbh

can't confirm that read on me sorry, biased source
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Post Post #152 (isolation #44) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:07 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

oh fuck i just slipped my read on guilty which is why i didn't want to give a readlist zzzzzz
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Post Post #153 (isolation #45) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:19 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 152, Nitroglycerin wrote:oh fuck i just slipped my read on guilty which is why i didn't want to give a readlist zzzzzz
so yeah i'll go in-depth here since i'm no longer in class :dead:

{Max, Drone} - Town
{HS, Beeboy, TB} - Townlean
{GuiltyLion, Dunnstral} - Scumlean
{Creature} - Scum

Spoiler: Explanations since i got verbose :dead:
Max just straight up has good tone and is voting my top scumread out of his own volition. Not a complicated read. 124 was kind of derpy for his join date imo but I don't think that's scummy

Drone's questions are pretty legit so far. I liked the second question in #, like it was kind of generic but the "in your own eyes" part I think shows that he's trying to make TB hone in on something actually AI and analyze something. was a good catch too and the way Drone asked about it didn't read as though he was trying to dig shit up on TB to make him look bad. I also felt like he was trying to figure me out in our conversation. Plus I had a moonlogic townread on him for putting a period at the end of his confirmation :dead:

HS has good tone and the way they've been posting feels natural. I liked the timing of their RVS post for example, though I'm taking into account that Shadow says that's within their scum range and I honestly believe it. That and the fact that I feel disconnected to all of their reads though are stopping them from being a stronger tr

Beeboy I talked about basically, the nonchalantness of his Dunn vote I also liked but it's probably within his range as scum

TB had a really obvtown entrance. Like I don't think scum would have thought "Oh I got my role PM? Better post in the thread and vote!" since they have a PT to talk in, especially without a daystart PM or the mod posting something about a confirmation phase. Plus the eagerness of that post meshes with that interpretation. He really just needs to post thoughts beyond "Naked votes are scummy" for me to double down on (or reject) that read.

GL's vote was kind of shit... I played with GL before and I know he uses linguistics to scumhunt and so I know it's a valid method. maybe i'm in a biased position since i know shadow and I are town but here it felt kind of reachy and I already addressed why I didn't think the read made much sense anyway. Also the fact that he didn't engage with anything else in thread looks like scum making what looks like well-thought out analysis but not really doing anything with it...? it just feels incomplete. Plus I really doubt that town scumreading this slot ignores Shadow's knee-jerk reaction to HS's question directed at me, it's something I'd be weary about if I were in another town slot.

Dunn I've already explained

Creature's most likely playing to his scum meta here. His confirmation posts were bad ( was something pretty obvious and felt really forced in context) and felt like he was just trying to inflate his post count after I made a (scientifically inaccurate btw that's not how statistics work at all) post about his tell. feels self-concious. also felt like Creature forgot how his thought process as town works. like there's no brute forcing "well which townreads work? let's cross them off", he just went straight to "well let's pick a random suspect and see how it works out." just doesn't feel like the way i've seen the gears turn in creature's head in the past. basically creature here seems more interested in inflating his post count rather than scumhunting and letting it go up naturally


@HS, I know you've meta'd Creature for that Newbie since I watched it, so what do you think of my read on him? Do you at least see where I'm coming from?

@TB, even though I already gave you my perspective I still would like to see if you concur or disagree. I emphasize that I mean concur because I'm hoping to see what unique viewpoint you bring since "Yeah pretty much what you said" doesn't help. If that's the truth then it is what it is but i'd just like to confirm my gutread on you :dead:

@Drone, :]
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Post Post #156 (isolation #46) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:26 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 155, Creature wrote:If my goal was inflating my post count, there are a lot of things I can do to inflate my post count.
there's a point where it becomes too obvious though and I think you're trying to avoid that
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Post Post #158 (isolation #47) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:28 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 154, ThinkBig wrote:@Nitro, will respond when I get off work. Been very busy. I will give my full reads and analysis so far when I get back.

Apology for the delay.
start small imo, you don't really need to post a full readlist just yet
Creature wrote:Wouldn't be too obvious as
I usually aim to inflate my post count as town either.
This is news to me??
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Post Post #160 (isolation #48) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:34 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 159, Creature wrote:Who never did?
uh :dead:

yeah idk how normal that is sorry :dead: :dead:
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Post Post #165 (isolation #49) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:44 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 163, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 153, Nitroglycerin wrote:Dunn I've already explained
fake
you're just fucking with me right

this game has killed me enough times to the point where i'm already dead :dead:

its ur fault done-stral
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Post Post #169 (isolation #50) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:51 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 47, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:Dunn feels like he's trying to make a quirky push and i don't think he believed in it, like there's no way i could be "forcing an interaction on a townie" with my rvs vote because that implies it has scum motivation when it was written as soon as the playerlist came out so :dead:. plus i feel like he's backpedaling from it too tbh
and was bad too (see my response in )

not liking the lack of response to either

but honestly i want creature dead more and guilty's slightly worse than you probably :dead:
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Post Post #171 (isolation #51) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:56 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 170, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 105, Nitroglycerin wrote:
In post 104, Dunnstral wrote:I don't think you'd be ok with a lynch this early if you were town
what is that based on

my playstyle evolved significantly from 649 and this is a micro (where getting reads is easier for me because you just need 4 townreads to win the game basically) so
INSTINCT
yeah if you're town your instinct's really off here

there's really no reason to ever not be ok with a D1 lynch. like even a random lynch provides information (i think of that micro guilty almost solved but then lost because expedience and I scumread each other and then i gave up and voted a townread that was actually scum :dead: )
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Post Post #173 (isolation #52) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:00 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 172, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 171, Nitroglycerin wrote:there's really no reason to ever not be ok with a D1 lynch.
ya haha no reason

except it was on me so????>
ok to be ON a D1 lynch that you support :dead: :dead:

that's splitting hairs and you know as well as i do i was talking about me and from my perspective
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Post Post #175 (isolation #53) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:06 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

i'm pushing a lynch on scum!Creature and attempting to engage someone who nullreads me and townreads creature about that read

which is far more than disagreeing with everything you're saying :dead:
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Post Post #179 (isolation #54) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:44 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 177, GuiltyLion wrote:it's basically how you assumed that it wasn't an RVS vote that I have a problem with. Like I just looked at it - a vote on me, mind you - and assumed it was RVS because I had only posted a confirm. Further, poking on someone "for making an RVS vote when we're past RVS" seems like the classic easy/shallow hook into the game that scum would want to use in order to look town.
but that's what i'm saying

you're assuming i thought max's vote wasn't RVS when I believed it was and i'm not sure how you made that mental jump?

the second point is valid but i was more interested in seeing if he was townreading dunn or creature rather than make him look scummy
GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 108, Nitroglycerin wrote:like some people "got serious" (me) while others are still random voting (Maxous, Beeboy). i disagree that not everyone posted btw, but not everyone is really in a non-RVS mindset yet
like here now you're making a new assumption that maxous is random voting, so clearly in your head his GL vote was random too, which renders your original question kinda pointless
Not really?

I think my response to the above quote clarifies this but if not I'll try to explain again.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #55) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:49 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 180, GuiltyLion wrote:P-EDIT: I didn't make the mental jump, you expressed it in your post. "Why is Guilty a better vote" implies that Max had kind of reasoning behind his vote, putting words in his mouth, that's why I called it a leading question
Is it a bad assumption to make that people will always make the best vote from their vantage point?

like

there
are
circumstances where i would think a naked/empty/rvs vote IS the best vote to make, such as having townreads on everyone that posted or wanting to get a read on someone who hasn't posted yet.

just because a vote is meaningless doesn't mean it can't be a better vote than another vote... does that make sense?
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Post Post #184 (isolation #56) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:57 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 182, GuiltyLion wrote:I don't remember this level of early-game tryhard from town!you in Mystery Box.
tbf that was just an off-game for me and a bad time. same with family mafia

i'm normally more like this when i'm in a shitposty/hyperposting mood. i guess the closest i've been this try-hardy is my newbie (1718) but it's been a while since i've had a wind like this

i think OMGUS can be a valid reason to scumread someone... if a push on you is shit why not push on it? i've caught scum that way too :dead:

honestly though your last few posts have been ok so i'm not really sure where i'm wrong

still pretty sure this is scum!creature though
GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 181, Nitroglycerin wrote:Is it a bad assumption to make that people will always make the best vote from their vantage point?
bad? I dunno. scummy? yes. Like I don't want to get bogged down into a huge argument over the logical validity of this, the simple fact of the matter is I didn't like the way you made this assumption about Maxuous making the "best vote" or whatever and then used that to ask him a question. feels forced, feels unnatural.

Dunn I like the bee puns, keep it up
fair enough then :/
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Post Post #189 (isolation #57) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:25 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 187, Drone wrote:I state something a bit outrageous.
?

agreed that beeboy's dunn vote was townie and i guess the reasons you have it as so are valid too

let's kill creature today yeah?
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Post Post #190 (isolation #58) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:37 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

honestly i think my issue with GL's initial post was more like

the minimalism behind it? rather than the reasoning behind the vote. i mean obviously i know it's a wrong vote and i can see just like a linguistic dissonance in how GL and I communicate/view Mafia theory affecting how town!GL views me but like i feel like he's walking on eggshells here if that makes sense.

just shocked that it engaged with so little. as town joining in late i probably would have dug up more on my scumread and that's why i'm still surprised (and kind of peeved) that there's no commentary on Shadow's posting on here. i'd like to know why you haven't said anything about it GL.

either way i'm not going to really entertain a lynch on Dunn/GL today because i think strongarming creature first is the better play here
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Post Post #193 (isolation #59) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:49 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 192, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 190, Nitroglycerin wrote:either way i'm not going to really entertain a lynch on Dunn/GL today because i think strongarming creature first is the better play here
And why is that?

Funny how I'm randomly in your scummo pool even though I haven't done anything that could be construed as suspicious
because he's obvious scum and forcing his partner to be in the awkward position of deciding whether or not to bus D1 in a micro is probably smarter play than trying to lynch the scum that makes endgame first since I could be wrong on both of you (GL and you)

also you're not randomly in my scumpool lmfao but OK dude. if it makes you feel better i can just say i'm not townreading you

you just don't feel as genuine here but that could be my dunnanoia working here

what do you think of my points on GL (work on this with the assumption we're town :death: )
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Post Post #194 (isolation #60) » Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:58 pm

Post by Nitroglycerin »

creature only has 5.7% of posts in the thread rn

which is basically 2 standard deviations below his average as town

even the numbers show that his engagement in thread is pretty low compared to normal

#ScumhuntingWithStatistics
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Post Post #199 (isolation #61) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:07 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 195, Dunnstral wrote:It's too early to be using that. You forcing that as the games just started only hurts your case. There's a reason you'd want to come out with it instantly, however.
i think creature would want engage more with the thread this early on yeah

i voted for you first for basically that reason though and i'm not really happy with the direction he's going :dead:
Dunnstral wrote:
In post 193, Nitroglycerin wrote:you just don't feel as genuine here
Compared to?
In post 193, Nitroglycerin wrote:but that could be my dunnanoia working here
I don't think you've ever doubted me before.
649, where I did doubt you actually :dead:

and yeah you have a point that we're both hyperposters but like statistics account for variation like that. we're still at the point where creature has a 2% chance of being town with that logic due to natural variation and stuff

do you have a reason to think creature is town besides the fact i'm pushing him btw
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Post Post #200 (isolation #62) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:08 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 198, Creature wrote:Ever checked my average position?
your average as town in micros is like 16% vs. 10% (as scum)

i could do an overall thing but it still wouldn't help your case even if i were working purely in numbers
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Post Post #202 (isolation #63) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:13 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

For science. For the mind! :up:
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Post Post #207 (isolation #64) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:20 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

which is why i thought dunn/creature was the team before GL's vote ^

still would like your thoughts on that dunn :dead:

and your actual, non-"Nitro is pushing on them" thoughts on creature :dead: :dead:

pedit:
Dunnstral wrote:
In post 199, Nitroglycerin wrote:do you have a reason to think creature is town besides the fact i'm pushing him btw
no
then just take my word on this — this is scum creature and you've never seen me in a hypomanic episode like this before :dead: :dead:

HS could be scum, especially with their townread on creature

which is why i wanted to talk about that read with them :dead:
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Post Post #210 (isolation #65) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:24 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 208, Creature wrote:
In post 200, Nitroglycerin wrote:
In post 198, Creature wrote:Ever checked my average position?
your average as town in micros is like 16% vs. 10% (as scum)

i could do an overall thing but it still wouldn't help your case even if i were working purely in numbers
I mean in Activity Overview.
ok but you're middling here which iirc isn't a good look for you

would you like to engage with something in the thread besides me pointing out your tell?
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Post Post #212 (isolation #66) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:26 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 211, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 207, Nitroglycerin wrote:and your actual, non-"Nitro is pushing on them" thoughts on creature
Right. I don't have any
that was pre-pedit sorry :dead:
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Post Post #217 (isolation #67) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:28 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 213, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 207, Nitroglycerin wrote:then just take my word on this
Nah how about chill out and let him play the game before you jump the gun and say his posting average is below average when we don't even have a good sample size yet
fine i'll try

but i legit think i can tell the difference between scum!Creature and town!Creature within a few posts zzz
Dunnstral wrote:
In post 207, Nitroglycerin wrote:HS could be scum, especially with their townread on creature
alright, let's get 'em
creature's still the better vote :dead:
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Post Post #220 (isolation #68) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:31 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

drone vca like that isn't super helpful without flips

like i agree it wasn't a townie vote and i like HS's tone still so i agree with the conclusion but still :dead:
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Post Post #222 (isolation #69) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:33 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

i'm dead inside laughing

hypomania is a weird feeling dunnstral

i'll probably mellow out in a week dw
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Post Post #225 (isolation #70) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:34 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

yeah it's kind of a weird read considering they spent time meta'ing creature for another game
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Post Post #228 (isolation #71) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:36 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

Let's just wait for them to get back to me on their thoughts on my read
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Post Post #234 (isolation #72) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:27 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 183, GuiltyLion wrote:bad? I dunno. scummy? yes. Like I don't want to get bogged down into a huge argument over the logical validity of this, the simple fact of the matter is I didn't like the way you made this assumption about Maxuous making the "best vote" or whatever and then used that to ask him a question. feels forced, feels unnatural.

Dunn I like the bee puns, keep it up
Why is it scummy?
If A votes B without giving a reason don't you wanna know why?

~Ss
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Post Post #237 (isolation #73) » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:01 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 42, Nitroglycerin wrote:
In post 40, Nitroglycerin wrote:yeah hs is town g2k
She's joking. Not AI

~Ss
^ this post in context

on suffocating the thread, it's fine and i get whatever the real life equivalent is of that a lot

i'll just stop posting for a day and get back to everything else later. you're kind of right :dead:
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Post Post #245 (isolation #74) » Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:27 am

Post by Nitroglycerin »

In post 233, Human Sequencer wrote:Not really. Meta is for understanding somebody's personality, not 'x does y as z'. Nothing Creature has posted so far looks like something Creature would do as scum tbh.
i mean that is what i mean by meta too though

like it's in creature's personality to hyperanalyze everything and brute force the game with stream-of-conciousness posts as town because he's the kind of person who's naturally inquisitive and persues every single angle, even if others think it's stupid

he doesn't read as invested in this game and while i was online yesterday (after i said i'd stop posting), i saw him actively ignore this thread and post in other games. like for creature that's like 9/10 times a red flag he's scum in a game and isn't as active as a result

i swear he made a vote similar to his drone one too in another scum micro so i'm not sure if your value call there is correct. i'll back it up later once i have more time to post. if you have more examples of things that don't mesh with your perception of his scum!personality that would be appreciated though

hope the thread had time to breathe while i actively restrained myself from posting :dead:
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