STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[grapes]

Jesus fuck why with the walls cerb.

1) Any argument that who allied with Xk was in any way indicative of someones alignment only applies to A50, not to our slot. The argument that scum killing Yume and thus ENABLING the Xk kill power is alignment indicative for people applies to both A50 and myself.

Ugh. Stop making me think holy shit.

I guess ... Are you not more likely to pay attention to stress/mechanics than a50 is?

2) With 1 in mind - from my iso of xk/skybird/twinwings on that day, and my recollection of everything else, it was Titus who arranged to put Xk and twinwings together. Xk was uncertain about it(they asked if twinwings had really requested to ally with them, and were informed that they hadn't and it was just arranged by someone else), but basically said fuck it I'll submit you. During that time, twinwings had not responded at all iirc, and, well, could have just completely ignored the arrangement. After all, it's better to be suspicious and force town to spend a day lynching you, than it would have been to essentially feed them a free kill. This simple fact makes the point that Skybird was the one who asked for Xk as their ally even weirder...especially given that in this scenario, A50!scum has told his team about Xk's role, therefore there is NO benefit to having skybird ally with him, since they'd already know he was a gem and was planning on joining the gems. Obviously since Xk's infodump happened during this phase(please confirm A50), it's POSSIBLE that A50 didn't KNOW about the role and such at this stage in the day, but given how late in the phase it happened...that seems unlikely.

OH alright so titus made the proposition and skybird was all over it.

See here's where we differ. Twinwings, while not in anywhere near as good a position as skybird was, is still a number for scum. It's definitely worth trying to save any member of the scumteam that they can.

The benefit is that scum were living in a world where skybird was lock-town and thought she was invincible.
I wasn't living in that world.
I don't think that you were living in that world.
Who was?

3) Now, considering that in 2, A50 already knows Xk is a gem who is planning on joining the crystal gems, and will thus be essentially unlynchable...why wouldn't the scum simply shoot him rather than whoever they shot that day(I need to look at who died that night to see if an Xk kill could have made any sense). For that matter, if they didn't want to kill Xk, why not use the event MoI told us about that stops alliances?(Yes, I know, there could have been restrictions on it's usage, but still, it's not something you're even considering at all.

Why wouldn't scum shoot xk? Maybe because that incriminates those who had knowledge of his role? Just spitballing.
Stopping alliances also accomplishes the same sort of problems.

4) Even AFTER all of this...unless you think the scum had NO control over using the yume killing thing...this was quite literally the WORST day for them to use it. Trading 1 for 1 is incredibly bad, EVEN if they don't think it's likely that Xk will use the kill, it's just not a risk that makes sense for anyone to take. The only scenario I can imagine where using the yume kill had to happen on this day would be if it was locked to a seasonal thing, as in it had to be used before the first season finale and/or was usable multiple times, refreshing on finales(this second part is super unlikely given that we haven't seen it happen again)...In the first case, why wouldn't they just use it on D1 or D2, and avoid that whole alliance through the means mentioned above? In the second, losing out on that one instance in exchange for protecting the slot most likely to make it to endgame(and who had powers they were clearly aiming to trigger, given the kills on KC and Yume(like, literally, their entire endgame strategy appears to have been focused around Skybird at this stage of the game)) seems well worth it.

In the event that stress reaches +2 their options are - let twinwings slot eat a bubble. Or let skybird sweet talk her way out of it.
Regardless of whose role was more powerful (and I know you all love to ogle at BIG role pms, losing a scum is losing a scum mate) Either of them dying makes the game harder.

[grapes]

So, the MARTYR .. whose aim was TO GET SHOT as his ONE AND ONLY win con.. was survivalistic?? Sure, dude. Now please order me some of the same stuff you've been drinking.

Well your thing was that you wanted to draw a nightkill. Which is why you tried to hard to dodge rope.

You found out that game taht wanting to dodge rope too hard puts you in the noose. That was my point old man.

[grapes]

I could pull a mastin and just wall-case A50 but I'm not sure that would do anything -- I've already laid out a pretty compelling case just for his day 1 play.

At this point it's just letting the Earth among us do what they feel is right. But I'm not gonna give up either.

[Almost50]

Obviously since Xk's infodump happened during this phase(please confirm A50), it's POSSIBLE that A50 didn't KNOW about the role and such at this stage in the day, but given how late in the phase it happened...that seems unlikely.

Not "positively sure" what you're asking me to confirm, but I think it's this:

I was allied with Xk on E2 (that's when I got the info). I was allied with you on E3 (that's when I relayed the info to you). Sky then died on Season Finale 1 Exposition (i.e. E4).

It thus follows that if either of us was scum the info was already relayed to the whole scum team. I'd have had the whole on Climax 2, Episode 3 (both Exposition and Climax) to do it, and you would still have had Climax 3 to do it, and given that Varsoon gives us until the very last limi9 of the deadline to change our choices it is thus IMPOSSIBLE that Sky allied with Xk "without knowing his abilities" IF either of us was scum.

So, if -hypothetically speaking- either of A50/RR is scum then Sky allied with Xk KNOWING all about his role and how it functioned, which needs to be explained in light of it not having been a compulsory choice.

However, it's because neither of A50/RR is scum that Sky walked into that trap that got her killed NOT KNOWING that such a trap existed to begin with.

This -to me- is CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE that the RR slot is NOT SCUM. If Sky was the one "set to endgame" there's no way in hell where the "Masters of Deceit and Tactical Maneuvers" would have let her go there even if they thought it was only a 10% chance she'd get lynched.

[grapes]

I mean we've already seen evidence that trying to conclude anything based on alliance choices (particularly alliances set up by town just out of whim) isn't a smart way to go about this (see: shadow_step's towncase on himself).

If anything, skybirds happy go luckyness with wanting to ally with Xk after titus proposed that might've been an attempt to further make him second-guess his shot. Especially if the threats thought that the gems were town and wouldn't just kill indiscriminately.

[Almost50]

considering that in 2, A50 already knows Xk is a gem who is planning on joining the crystal gems, and will thus be essentially unlynchable...why wouldn't the scum simply shoot him rather than whoever they shot that day(I need to look at who died that night to see if an Xk kill could have made any sense).

On Climax 2, KC was killed.

On Exposition 3, Yume was killed.

On Climax 3, both NC & FB were killed.

I believe Xk joined the Gems on E4 (if memory serves right, but the Gems can confirm or correct me).

However, even assuming he had joined them starting Climax 3, then it still was a big mistake to take out Yume earlier on Exposition 3. In fact, DOUBLY as much faulty. It raised the stress enough for Xk to actually join the Gems AND allowed him to use his ability to kill.. then Sky goes in willingly to ally with him knowing all this??!!!

[grapes]

Does nobody else find it remarkably telling that this is all news to almost?

Also, as I've just said. "Willingly" is a strong word for a reserved lurk-slot who (if there's scum between a50/rr) needs to pretend that there was no danger.

[grapes]

Don't mind me, just swimming through concrete.

[Almost50]

See here's where we differ. Twinwings, while not in anywhere near as good a position as skybird was, is still a number for scum. It's definitely worth trying to save any member of the scumteam that they can.

It could have been done with a simple "I forgot to submit an alliance" by Twin. Given that they were already very much inactive at the time it would have been accepted, and although it would not have improved their position it certainly would not have ade it worse for them either, but it would have saved Sky the trouble (which, btw did not improve Twin's situation either).

[grapes]

We've established that sky and xk didn't ally completely of their own accord. Keep up now.

[Almost50]

In the event that stress reaches +2 their options are - let twinwings slot eat a bubble. Or let skybird sweet talk her way out of it.
Regardless of whose role was more powerful (and I know you all love to ogle at BIG role pms, losing a scum is losing a scum mate) Either of them dying makes the game harder.

1- Tell that to SC
2- Xk's bubble ONLY worked on someone allied to them. None of the scum, and especially Skybird of all "had" to ally with him if they knew anything about it.

[grapes]

2- Xk's bubble ONLY worked on someone allied to them. None of the scum, and especially Skybird of all "had" to ally with him if they knew anything about it.

Other options (after titus proposed the alliance) were what then?

Look your maker in the eye and tell him do your worst.
Or run away.

Which one looks worse?

And if sky was gonna run away to something else then who would it be? And does that not keep twinwings in an iffy position given that they weren't posting and couldn't attempt an alliance with anyone else leaving the blocks to fall more or less the way that they already were?

[Reasonably Rational]

Would a failed alliance necessarily have raised any eyebrows though? It would have been fairly easy to just avoid the risk altogether and just claim to have somehow had your alliance prevented. I mean ... a whole pile of people literally just didn't vote during beach-a-palooza ... and that was a fairly dominant part of the conversation and everyone was reasonably expected to do as asked, and yet so many did not. If those people weren't even pressed at all (and go back and look ... there was zero shits given for the most part), then why on earth do you think an informed scum team would have made that move rather than just avoid it and feign surprise?

You seem to have as a basic premise that the scum team was informed and felt obligated to just walk into the trap they knew about, and that seems like a shaky premise to me.

~D

[Almost50]

We've established that sky and xk didn't ally completely of their own accord. Keep up now.

If I'm submitting my own picks then I'm doing it WILLINGLY. On that night it was proposed that I ally with MoI and YOU (remember?). Something went wrong (a mere misunderstanding) and I ended up allying with MoI alone.

But hold on.. I've got something interesting I picked up while reviewing my PT with MoI for the umpteenth time (this one to try and remember whom it was we were supposed to have for a 3rd).

What hit me was a post by me where I stated I wanted to lynch S_S, and my reasoning included them allying with flipped scum on E1, grapes on E2, and no one on E3. So I went back and reread both Sky's and S_S roles and it's evident S_S did not benefit from an alliance nor did they actively give anyone else benefits. HOWEVER, Sky was immune to all action while in an alliance, so that's why they allied with their own p on E1 (not knowing how they'd perform and thus how likely it would be for them to be investigated on Climax 1).

Now the ball is once again on Mastina's court, I'm afraid. Check the benefits allying with grapes gives you/him (and I'm talking about HIS effects not yours) and see if he would benefit S_S in anyway and/or would benefit FROM S_S (actually from allying with just about anyone)

[MagnaofIllusion]

So here is where I am at. Having read over countless Mastin walls and other responses I’m at the following place regarding everyone left in the game.

Mastin / Random – Not going to lynch them. This is pretty much written in stone at this stage.

Almost – the Mod revelation(to me) that his Alliance ability did in fact empower the Mafia factional Nightkill spelled the end of my suspicion of him today. There is no reason for scum A50 to not link up with partners after Day 1 to make sure (or as sure as they could get) that no pesky Docs or BP prevented their Nightkills. And especially after the loss of Skybird. Yet we’ve had a significant period of lack of unaccounted for Nightkills. So not voting there today. If someone wants to compile an alliance list for Almost (N0/D1, N1/D2, etc) to refute my perception feel free.

RR – Given as solo Mafia his Nightkill last Night would not have fail on any Non-Commuting targets I don’t see the lack of kill outside Farside as making any sense for RR. He could have easily shot Mastin under those circumstances and no-one would have blinked an eye given Mastin’s confirmed status. Sorry Mastin but your whole “No Killing keeps the suspicion on Fuzzy” theory is great and all but it requires RR to have made a move that GUARENTEES he loses the game as solo scum with grapes being lynched today. I don’t see that as happening.

Grapes – I’ve already explained why he’s the optimal lynch for today so not rehashing since Mastin has dug his heels in.

That leaves –

Fuzzy – the lack of a second kill last Night makes all sense for scum with a Vig that can’t use both abilities. And I’m not forgetting that he was more than willing to lynch other than Shadow yesterday when that was the best choice for hanging. lastly he works as both Solo scum or partner scum with grapes.

Shiro – In hindsight I wish he was still bubbled. I acted rashly in releasing him and that is on me. His play is meh but he’s cleared of being solo scum so I will not lynch there today.

So that’s everyone. I can’t see me budging on voting either Fuzzy or Grapes today regardless.

--

How many vigs do you expect scum to have?

As many as is reasonable in an insanely complex set-up. Are you suggesting that scum couldn’t have a limited shot vig for balance purposes? Really trying to clear Fuzzy via role reasons is probably the least convincing route you could go.

Why don’t you explain why he doesn’t make sense from a Dayplay perspective?

Then stop contributing to my paranoia and quit with the terrible pushes bro.

I mean the only appropriate response to this is …



--

MOi what makes you think scum will make or will be able to make a NK given the record the last couple night>>>

Because scum being able to Nightkill is generally the safe and conservative basis for extrapolation. My ‘Lynch Grapes’ scenario is as worst case as I can get. If scum somehow can’t kill then all the better Town absolutely can’t lose.

Also I wanted to share a tidbit that should completely eliminate Random from your suspect pool – Climax 6 where there was no Nightkill and Farside was targeted with a mystery ability (which I think was the normal Mafia kill) – Random took no action. Just an FYI. So whatever unclaimed ability targeted Farside did not come from Random.

I am confused as anything on why mastin, Moi or Random are not dead, If I was scum I would make sure atleast one maybe two were dead. If all three are town than that makes it so hard to win...... No way would there be three alive at this point if I was scum . This is of course Wifom.

Maybe it it is me but I found that if obvious town players are alive when they should be dead than you have to consider they might be scum Many a time there player who seem obvtown are left alive when they should
dead than at the end of the game they flip scum . Not always the case but I have seen it happen enough time to make me suspicious.

Aside from this awkward justification for suspecting players who you shouldn’t …

You keep trying to pretend scum didn’t shoot at me Climax 5 which was prevented. This reinforces my thoughts that you are trying to sell a narrative (scum just can’t kill) rather than looking at the facts and extrapolating from there.

[Reasonably Rational]

@MoI: Though I agree with you about A50 being town for other reasons, I have to note that I believe you have his empowering ability wrong. He empowers on season finales specifically, not all the time.

@Shiro: where are you?

-Cerb

[Shiro]

Here

[Shiro]

I won't budge on fuzzy scum and you guys won't listen nor accept my case.

In the meantime Mastin is hostage keeping the game to lynch you while other want to lynch grapes but can't.

Grapes on the other hand wants almost dead while fuzzy is pushing mason scum and people go whatever.

This day won't end in anything other than yours or fuzzy lynch and people other than me and random and MoI won't vote tgere cause whatever.

Not much I can do by talking anymore

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MoI: Though I agree with you about A50 being town for other reasons, I have to note that I believe you have his empowering ability wrong. He empowers on season finales specifically, not all the time.

I understand that (with the caveat it also works when stress is +2 or higher). However were you Fuzzy and Almost not allied for the Season Finale (Day / Night 8)?

[Reasonably Rational]

@MoI: Though I agree with you about A50 being town for other reasons, I have to note that I believe you have his empowering ability wrong. He empowers on season finales specifically, not all the time.

I understand that (with the caveat it also works when stress is +2 or higher). However were you Fuzzy and Almost not allied for the Season Finale (Day / Night 8)?

We were, I'm just saying that the history of scum no kills doesn't mean a lot when he couldn't have empowered kills except on some special occasions. Though, now that I think about it, mechanically there's weak evidence that he's not scum because of the existing scum strongmen+his empowering happening at the opposite end of the stress meter. So, your point does have some degree of merit, just not because of the missing kills...unless I'm misunderstanding the nature of your argument?

-Cerb

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Yes lets kill fuzzy.............................

(dodge post)

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Kill me Please.................

[Almost50]

If someone wants to compile an alliance list for Almost (N0/D1, N1/D2, etc)

Well, I don't want to refute you argument, that's for sure, but I wanted to give you and everyone else a helping hand.

And yes, I believe the wordings of my ability could be misleading, but I thing the "cannot fail" part applies to Season Finales (in which I've allied with MoI alone once and RR/Fuzzy the second time).

I've allied with Cakez, Xk, RR, MoI, respectively in the first Season.

Then I allied with grapes, Shiro, RR+Fuzzy respectively in the 2nd Season (there was a night when all alliances failed so that explains why thee are only 3 alliances listed).

And now let me ask you all this: Do you think it was a coincidence that grapes wanted to ally with me (and MoI) on Season Finale 1, and he is now allied with Mastina on Season Finale 2, given our abilities and the time the scum team learned about them? (Obviously mine was revealed to them on E1, while Mastina's may have not been until Shadow allied with her). Food for thought.

[Almost50]

Kill me Please.................

*Takes a water gun and sprays on Fuzzy multiple times*

Happy?

[Randomnamechange]

Kill me Please.................

k