Mini Normal 1857 (Game Over - Mafia Wins!)

[shannon]

VOTE: Shannon

Hey girl!

I would vote you for the lol's but I'm done with RVS. I mean, it *is* page 2, after all. We have higher standards now.

What, no, we can't be out of RVS, I've gotta VOTE: Lil Uzi first. Hi LUV!

[shannon]

so I'm thinking scum would usually hop on a 4th spot in a situation like this and push the wagon along / at least see if it gets a little more traction...that they haven't eeeither means there is scum already on it and they don't want to double-down, or it is scum...

Or you know, maybe they haven't had time to vote yet? I'll have to go back and look at the wagon, but it's interesting that you're trying to narrow it down to either the wagon target or the wagon members, at this early stage.

VOTE: Drealmerz

[shannon]

transcend i dno why ur being weird but if ur scum u can just get urself modkilled because ill feel bad if i have to lynch u

my heart still hasnt recovered fully from lynching kraska

Cannot imagine ever feeling bad about lynching kraska. (This isn't a contribution, it's me making conversation)

[shannon]

Hi, sorry for my absence yesterday, there's a lot going on here. I'll catch up tonight x

[shannon]

Bloody hell the game is growing as I'm trying to reply to stuff. And I'm having a hard time keeping everyone straight. OK, whatevs, here we go:

(PS - I've managed to leave my charger at work so I won't be back tonight probably)

you're most likely town because statistically most people are town in the game, and the argument against me is assuming you're town so there's no point in considering the other scenario

Are you seriously town reading someone because statistically they are more likely to be town? Wtf?

Uhhh yeah this read to me like someone is making a town read based on scum knowledge, and then trying to cover their ass.

@mod can TTTT get a different avatar i legit had nightmares about it

Vote for everyone to have labradorable avs like transcend <3

I can't fall asleep so...

My biggest problem with Transcend town reading rabbit is that he had less than 10 posts - most not very substantial - by the time Transcend TR'd him.

I need to go back and check this, but had Bunny contributed much in these 10 posts? Was there a general vibe of towniness from the slot, in spite of so few posts? I disagree (in general) that oyu can't get a town read on someone from just a few posts, but in this specific instance you might be right. (Wanna quotey spoiler Bunny's 10 posts and save me the leg work/battery power?)

okay i have an open question for people who've played with other people in this game

please point out all known filthy bussers ahead of time so they get less towncred for lynching scum lmao

I have played with Transcend and Lil Uzi (LUV). LUV was scum but got caught, can't remember what alignment Transcend was as it was a while ago. I remember catching Uzi but I don't remember whether he bussed (too focused on my glorious town victory).

[shannon]

OK VOTE: Impoetic for that explanation I quoted, which looked super fake

[shannon]

im not bunny im rabbit

hit my iso button and see if you would invite me to your town circle after the first 10 posts

Sorry, bunny just comes out when I mean R a b b i t

Yeah, I think after your first 10 you're town-for-now. It's not like, the strongest town read I've ever had, but I can't see any scumminess there. Put it this way, I wouldn't lynch you today unless there was some drastic change in your behaviour or tone.

[shannon]

oh god i'm actually getting wagoned d1 jesus

i'm town, i was defensive because i didn't like the explanation for the fos on me, i wouldn't be defensive as scum, scum is the only thing i do well

i know that's wifomy but jesus christ it's fucking suboptimal for scum to spaz out and respond wiht walls upon walls of text to a single joke that would normally just fade with time (it's page 7) unless they're doing it for town cred and i mean since i spent walls and walls letting myself get BWed before bringing this up to cash in for towncred... just stop speedlynching me i just saw like 3 votes

Uhhh, OK then ...

If you know that being defensive is likely to get you scum read, why would you avoid it as scum but do it as town?

Having scum reads on townies is sub-optimal for town.

The fact that you've posted about *knowing* how it looks shows that you could have intended it for WIFOM purposes, like too obv scum to be scum.

[shannon]

shannon do you see the town tone in recent 3 posts lol

this kind of indignation is not easy to fake well

Yeah, I see it, I'm not totally convinced yet though because faking isn't *that* hard. I'm going to let this play out overnight, which is when most of the game seems to get played.

I'm down to 21% so I'm off for the night x

[shannon]

Catching up, on P17. UNVOTE: Impoetic

[shannon]

Page 18 - Yep, OK, we got it, no more walls please x

Like yes, I could be scum. I've never said I couldn't be scum here, and you can ISO me and see that. I don't ask to be cleared over subjective stuff. But so could anyone else; this is a game where everyone and everything can be scum at the start. That's kind of the premise. So if there's a situation where i'm town, and there's no reason to think the situation where I'm scum is more likely, then what sense does it make to scumread me over everyone else?

I know I'm being a derptown and that's why I'm actually at risk of getting MLed here, and I know I should be scumhunting and not continuing to pitch a fit over a tiny little wagon early on in d1.

It's just my style to be bad, tbh -- but also the fact that my terrible communication skills are frustrating me and making me want to keep trying to reword everything and not move on from the topic.

OK, done spamming this time. really.

[shannon]

Page 19 ((Yes I'm putting page numbers in, I don't want to get lost and I don't want people to be responding to stuff they've already answered in the pages since the one I'm on)

I also don't very often get super-hard reads of no-doubt like I have on LUV, and when I do get those reads they're 9/10 times correct, so it's hard for me to let go. Obviously I know I can't expect anyone else to see what I see, so I will work on it, but it's probably not until later today at the least.

If would be super helpful if you could try to explain what you're seeing, even a little bit. What makes LUV so readable to you?

Iron seemed to imply he was going to seriously start playing the game Monday when he mentioned Thanksgiving so I'm giving him the benefit of doubt for now.

+1

Fluffy earlier insisted on not being town read for some reason, makes me wonder if he's worried about people seeing that his posts are designed to have people TR him.

I don't think that's it. To me, it reads like bunny is trying to get more depth from people, and to see who is going to work from 'vibes' vs who is going to give strong cases with quotes etc.

[shannon]

you asid "Sure. Basically, I knew you were new to this site and I assumed you'd be newer to the game as well. The conversation with Transcend just makes me think newbtown but then I realized you just don't know that he always plays like this. Once you came to accept that you started doing things that actually made sense as a town player. I'll mark that point where you change within the quotes."

i disagree that the first set of spoilered quotes you produced wasn't pro town or didn't "actually make sense as a town player"

there were pro-town reasons for every post there imo

me not knowing transcends playstyle would be a reason to post those things, not to not post those things imo

rabbit - Yeah we disagree on that then. With my knowledge of Transcend, it does not look productive to try to engage him in the way you did. He can be engaged, but if you try to do it directly you won't get anywhere most of the time. You're right about you not knowing Transcends playstyle being a justification for posting those things, that's why I'm leaning town on you now

after

you figured Trans out a bit and "started doing things that actually made sense as a town player."

Getting to you drone

kyouko currently at highest scumread and would implore others to look there i think

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

Page 21 - Bunnyrabbit, SSBM, Impoetic all town

[shannon]

I'm getting off work in 5 hours. I'll make my cases then. For now, FOS on:

1. Impoetic
2. Dreal
3. RB

I'm fairly confident at least one of these is scum. I will further make my case when I get off.

So, could we please get these cases now?

[shannon]

Hi

Drone is a mislynch

Bye

hey is he town though or just not for today? Him and Kohai are definitely defending each other

Bring on the faux mason claims!

[shannon]

Uzi ain't a solid read in my list, pass.
Shannon is weird, okay with lynch.
rb ain't posting yet still, prefer to avoid lynching.
Ironstove - no use, okay with lynch.

Nuh-uh, no way. I'll cop to weird (I think kraska's term is 'kooky') but I'm not scummy for it and I'm not going to accept being lynched. 'Tis just how I am.

[shannon]

He needs some winding

I only have 0 votes because people aren't VOTING FOR ME. I just SAID PEOPLE NEED TO VOTE FOR ME IF THEY THINK I'M SCUM INSTEAD OF THROWING SHADE.

This is a fair point why is everyone talking about lynching this guy but no one is voting him?

@Uzi

I swear I haven't got lost in the maze that is my memory, thus I'll out that Shannon is not the Shannon I've been communicating with, yes.

???

[shannon]

Quickie catch up, let's see what stuck out.

i dont like anything you just posted lmao

So you're in total disagreement with my town and scum reads so far? You think transcend is more towny than scummy from your POV?

My personal thoughts on Transcend lean towards scummy, but I take the word of people earlier in the game who said it's basically impossible to tell D1. Given that he can also apparently be really good as town, I don't think we should lynch there today, based on a cost/benefit thinky thing.

I am town reading Ironstove for 711, I think it was far too thorough to be fake. Interesting about RB's image macros potentially being a tic. Catch of the game if RB flips scum.

Mostly caught up now, AMA

Spoiler:

speaking of which i cant really keep stove in my scum pile because him being mostly disengaged is more likely town; at least i know he used to want to play scum more. could've changed since then though.

i'll reread and do impressions of other players tomorrow, gotta sleep soon.

That's not really true, you can look at my town games here if you're interested, and my scum games, I'm actually never this lurky, except when I'm on vacation which has only happened once besides this time. I want to lay out the disclaimer that my playstyle kind of changes over time, but I'll lay out my games in order, as you can see I'm a spectacular player:

1. Newbie 1730 - To the North: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=67705 - Town VT (Lost in lylo, Transcend was also town in this game)
2. Normal Open 651 - Stack the Deck: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=67725 - Town VT (I replaced in and was later mod replaced... Town lost)
3. Newbie 1735 - Banana Split: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=68000 - Town VT (Won, Jaereed also in this game, but he's modding this one so not really important).
4. Newbie 1738 - Desert Mafia: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=68228 - Mafia goon (Won, TTTT was also in this game with me as my scum partner)
5. Newbie 1751 - Boot Camp: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=68854 - Town VT (I was NK'd day 1, town lost, here TTTT was also in this game under his aka Loopdan, he was scum, Transcend also replaced in. This was an interesting game of town!Transcend)
6. Normal Open 656 - Tit for Tat: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=68703 - Town VT (I replaced in when it was MYLO and town won this).

And that's it, I believe for my completed games here. I bookmark every game I join, and I placed all of my closed games in an archive. Anyway, you'll notice that the game I was the most lurky in was 1735 and 1738 between Sept 6th to the 25th which was when I went on vacation traveling.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8310446
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8309659

Even then, you can't really say that I have low activity levels, even in my scum game. I post quite frequently, and end game always slows down, if you look at the end game for Normal 656, or Newbie 1730, both town games which I was around for completion, my posting slows down dramatically, mainly because I'm waiting on responses and there really isn't much to post during those times.

--------------

If you examine Transcend in 1751: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=68854 his town ISO feels COMPLETELY different from this game. Also you can look over Transcend's past game as scum and see how good he is at wolfing if you look over his ISO:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... B%5D=27478

Mafia chat for that game which RB was also in:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=68867

Something interesting to note that I found when I looked over RB's ISO in this game:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... B%5D=28086

Notice anything similar? Image macros in his scum game, like this one, no image macros in his town game, ever.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... B%5D=28086
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... B%5D=28086
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8318989 (One image macro placed here, rest 0 images)

Compare to this current game:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8549358 (Already posted 3 image macros, which is consistent with his scum game)

Coincidence? Probably not. I think this is a scum tick.

Kohai and LUV have not been easy to read, they appear like scum slots. LUV has a history of being mislynched as town, his past games as town show him being D1/D2 mislynched as VT, while Kohai has 0 games to look at. It's a new account and I'm sure he's a smurf by how familiar he is with this site and it's mechanics.

Ah I understand. For the record, I have far more thoughts that I want to post. The only issue is that I have to phonepost until tomorrow night; therefore, my posts will not be as in depth as i would prefer them to be.

He makes this post but you look at his ISO following, 48 hours later and he doesn't make any content to follow up like he said he would, then announces V/LA...

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8553593

Inb4 long garbage post comes out of scum!kohai...

Understand. Thanks for the clarification.

Do you possibly want to see my completed games as well?

Yes, please link me to your alternate so I can look over it.

VOTE: Transcend

Tone is rather off from previous town games I've been with him in, which gives me a very strong gut read that he's scum for this game.

*not a chicken/egg scenario but you know what i mean

oh frick i'm quadrupleposting sorry ):

anyway, i wanted to point out that town can sheep logic/be swayed by popular consensus too, and I understand that is a possible scenario. So yeah okay votes can either be town or scum.

I'll have to review it i suppose. Or look up VCA, because I don't think improvising completely is a good strategy. Or just stop and look elsewhere.

Impoetic I think you'll get more from VCA once we've got a flip and can compare your wagon vs whatever other wagons develop and ultimately succeed.

Looks like I'm going to have to compromise but I don't think I will mind, Iron's meta dive on rb was very convincing.

^Seems forced

health reasons = suffering too much anxiety trying to figure out a post to craft to get him out of the hole he's dug himself into after I called out his BS to link me to his other games and would rather dump the problem onto another player instead.

How is that reaching? You don't sus his slot at all?

You don't find it perfect timing that he replaces out after being called out for his endless V/LAs and asked to provide the proof that he said he would?

Look at the guy's ISO and tell me this isn't a fucking scummy ass replacement request.

I find it bizarre that you are jumping to his defense and trying to remove pressure from the slot. Did you both agree in day chat that it was the best move for him to replace out while you diffused the pressure off of him?

^Ironstone this is a crappy thing to say, really.

[shannon]

We can't both be town if you are scum, dude

[shannon]

For anyone who's bothering to ISO:

Townreads:

Bunny Rabbit in 401
SSBM, Impoetic in 605 (and bunny still)
Ironstone in 813

Scum but not lynching for reasons stated: Transcend

[shannon]

Someone did a meta dive on me, LUL

Yeah, I just did, and I don't get why there's a wagon on you? Like, at all? The only thing I can come up with is that there are a few naked (or nearly nudie) votes and a bit of shitposting, but I can't see that as alignment indicative. The best case I've seen so far is the one about your image use being a scum tic, which is not exactly ironclad evidence.

[shannon]

My case would just be vibes, which is no case at all.

[shannon]

Shanon is an aka?

An alt, you mean? No, I'm just me

My case would just be vibes, which is no case at all.

and i have a vote on me already

why not strengthen that wagon tosee if your vibes are aaccurate or not

your play looks to careful and tactical

tonight's WWE match is shannon vs. the noose

who will be the winner?

my money's on the noose imo

Yes, heaven forbid someone try to be tactical in mafia.

If I were going to be *Really* tactical I just wouldn't have mentioned it, and gone ahead and done something else.

[shannon]

Is Shanon goodmorning?

Sounds like goodmorning. Does anyone know if Shanon has another account? I'm curious what the alt is, I'm pretty sure that's not the original account.

It really is just me, I'm my own person, I promise x

Who is goodmorning?

[shannon]

I'm looking at Shannon,
And my thinking nettles tend towards her words.

If one convinces me Uzi is Mafia, then it'd be Shannon.

Shannon, what gives you innocent reads on Bunny, and what gives you guilty reads on Transcend?
I'm hardly convinced by any other, or any case given so far.

OK, lemme go back and find some quotes. Might be a while because I'm a work.

[shannon]

I'm not quoting anything from Transcend, but I will say I think he's a dirty faker.

I also take issue with the sudden appearances of 'grown up' Transcend, who makes full sentences and gives reasons other than 'true dat'.

[shannon]

I stopped after the first however many posts because everything Bunny screams town to me, but these things in particular:

Spoiler:

which is to say, townmembers feel ok giving impressions of the game even with a little time, scum wanna make sure they don't start a narrative they cant keep up so they want a good chunk of time staring at everything

Yeah, this is getting way too close. If it goes to L-1 i'll unvote, but right now he DOES look the most suspicious, so *shrug*

keeping the threat of hammer looming on somebody this far from end of day is not something any town should be seriously suggesting...

why do you think im town transcend

could be wrong, i'm not the type of player to tunnel someone for an entire gameday, but i would like more clear explanation from transcend of how he's reading the people he has reads on

speaking of which i cant really keep stove in my scum pile because him being mostly disengaged is more likely town; at least i know he used to want to play scum more. could've changed since then though.

i'll reread and do impressions of other players tomorrow, gotta sleep soon.

[shannon]

Technically, I'm addressing only you in this statement, Shannon.
Your reads on Bunny is something I'd keep in mind and will try to play darts with, when interacting with either of you.

I don't know what this means. What is playing darts? I don't really get metaphors, please be literal.

[shannon]

rb is at 5 votes, LUV voted after the VC, so I'm a little worried by how easy this lynch seems and the fact that transcend is also on the wagon is making me think that rb is actually town.

Dude are you reading my mind?

non-voters should be voting

Now that you mention it ...

Rb is L-1

Someone drop dat hammer. Cuff him up. Sentence him for life.

VOTE: Transcend if that suggestion is not scum, it's at least anti-town. Waiting for a claim from rb is not necessarily going to draw out PRs (as Transcend says) and it's just good manners to ask for one, for fricks sake.

Actually, I can see a way that Scum Transcend makes this play: RB is town. Transcend is like, hey dudes, totally hammer this wagon, OMG hammer already, best wagon ever, so scummy, five stars would vote RB again. So one of us does it (maybe Transcend thinks I want his approval and will do it for Transcend Points), and RB flips town. Transcend's D2 play is to point the finger at that person and say SEE HOW EASILY THEY CHANGED THEIR VOTE? TOO EASILY and point to the fact that 'whoever votes' is only doing so because Transcend asked, not for some genuine read, and that's surely scum. There he goes, lining up a second lynch but without explicitly needing to tie any two names together at the outset.

Also transcend demanding someone hammer before rb can even claim is scummy as fuck why the fuck am I the only person scum reading transcend? Like those of you who refuse to scum read transcend because 'he's hard to read' d1 as your meta read and excuse are fucking ridiculous

Point taken. See above.

[shannon]

All of this stuff in the spoilers. Just, all of it.

Transcend, your crumbs were about as subtle as a brick. It should have been obvious to you that they were what I referred to when I said I wasn't going to quote you and I thought you were a dirty faker, and that I wasn't going to vote you because of cost/benefit. I.e. if your softclaim was true it'd be worse for us to lose the JK than for us to miss lynching you as scum on D1. If you are town were either being incredibly dense in continuing to scum read me after I said all that, or you just decided to keep being a dick. I don't know. The other option is of course that you are scum.

Also, explain to me how a jailkeeper is supposed to contradict a 1 shot BP (957)? And why you later changed your mind and decided that the roles don't contradict (1043)? Surely this is not such a huge thing that you (with your wealth of mafia experience) were mistaken about whether we could have both roles? I don't get (at all) how you thought that claiming your role as a counter to RB could be more useful for town than simply saying you don't believe his claim. Your claim hasn't painted his in any worse light. If you're town I really can't see your thought process making sense.

Aside: I also don't buy the 'Jae wouldn't do that' angle on the role combo. I just played a game that had a role modifier that hadn't been used in a mini normal in like, six years. And yet, there it is.

Drone says almost exactly what I wanted to say, also in the bit I've spoilered. #dronefortown

TL;DR: I call complete and utter bullshit on Transcend and stand by my vote.

Spoiler:

i am a protective role and i can hardclaim it if necessary. i think our roles contradict.

kill this.

Actually fuck it I'm gonna just claim to get him lynched.

let's hope this game isn't a

prison cell

u kno like some other games

VOTE: rb

u kno why
pedit: VOTE: ironstove

he ninja'd me therefore he's mafia ninja right??

ssbm is town



guys

i think . . .

let's not put him

behind bars

today

why do you think im town transcend

play doesn't seem scum motivated

i'll throw u in the

big house

if ur mafia lol

yes and i will

i'd just rather not be run up

that would be quite a slammer

Rb is L-1

Someone drop dat hammer.

Cuff him up. Sentence him for life.

all these quotes are me crumbing my role which is JAILKEEPER

and i'm fairly sure jae isn't putting a JK and a BP/commuter in the same game.

so yeah i sacrificed my life to lynch you but idrc.

now hammer.

i think d1ing jailkeeper is so bad though dont do that again

unless theres something deeper to it but i wont speculate

pffff

you understand that it'd be completely silly and naive of me to believe that? I can think it might be true (I don't), but regardless a smart player doesn't just trust in that and let you live gutting us for the rest of the game with no consequence, right?

I mean, tell me what you'd do in this instance

you'd buy the BP claim and back off?

ive said it many times before but i never lynch a day1 PR claim because if they're scum they're already dead later on and if they're a town PR well u dun goofed

i crumbed my claim really fucking hard lol

besides our roles don't contradict but he's still scum.

Drone, no. I just reviewed both drealmerz's and rb's ISO's.

drealmerz7 is town, rb is scum.

If rb flips town, you have my blessing to flashwagon drealmerz.

But rb's reactions to drealmerz/me have been awful as well as the rest of his game.

Your points on the BP claim.
As you may seem he can't deliver the playstyle he should be right now, but rb definitely ain't a fool to not know how wasteful it is to claim BP day 1.
There's reason he did, and the play prior to it just hints me there's no scum motive here.

You instead, go ahead and aggressively push him over this. For scum it's a golden road for a mislynch.
This with the addition of how comfy you are with lynching him after claim, and Ironstove's quote.

[shannon]

(Is the unironic use of this scummy too?)

FWIW I think the scummiest looking emojis (emojis? emoji? what is the plural?) are the smiles, they just looks dodgy.

[shannon]

wtf fluffy rabbit NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

he was a good player!!! that blows *cry*

HI TITUS - GLAD TO HAVE YOU HERE!!

+1

Bye bunny, miss your cute lil fluffy avatar x

[shannon]

if transcend is real thats honestly some of the worst jk play ive ever seen

but ill believe its real lol haha

Having made a really shitty JK play myself, I agree with this assessment.

(I saved a target N1, claimed D2 to try to sort it, JKed the person who tried to kill me N2, but was roleblocked and died. The one of the few games where I've had good reads from the start, and I fucked it up).

I think Transcend is too experienced to play JK like shite, unless he has some belief that there's someone else who's going to save him tonight (and every night). If this is in fact the case, and a hypothetical doc goes about saving Transcend every night, I don't know how I'd ever trust what Transcend tells us are his night actions.

[shannon]

if transcend is real thats honestly some of the worst jk play ive ever seen

but ill believe its real lol haha

Having made a really shitty JK play myself, I agree with this assessment.

(I saved a target N1, claimed D2 to try to sort it, JKed the person who tried to kill me N2, but was roleblocked and died. The one of the few games where I've had good reads from the start, and I fucked it up).

I think Transcend is too experienced to play JK like shite, unless he has some belief that there's someone else who's going to save him tonight (and every night). If this is in fact the case, and a hypothetical doc goes about saving Transcend every night, I don't know how I'd ever trust what Transcend tells us are his night actions.

Can confirm.
I killed Shannon

Oh you did too! I knew I recognised your name, how did I forget!

[shannon]

Why the urgency Transcend?

[shannon]

hi Titus
everyone pretty much thinks you are town
town is in luck
Titus' strength is set-up crackin'
rb claimed BP when at L-1 (but hadn't been playing like a BP at all)
trans claimed JK to "counter-claim" rb (which makes no sense)

You seem to have me at a disadvantage. I am not recalling any games we have played together.

Sick burn

I agree with you that Transcend's claim makes no sense as a counter-claim to RB.

[shannon]

Titus - TTTT wanting a rivaling Gerry wagon looked like a way to try to get better data for VC analysis once one or the other flipped. There are 2 people voting Gerry rn. TTTT and ironstove. ironstove was the one who originally came up with the meta case on rb that got people voting him, but now ironstove is nowhere to be found on the wagon. If Gerry's wagon is scum-driven, do you think TTTT or ironstove are more likely to be scum for being on it?

OK everyone knows Titus is rad but can we stop directing so much her way? What I mean to say is that if she's scum and we rely on her reads, we're gonna have a bad time. (And of course, she might be town and wrong, which happens).


SSBM - I might be mistaken but I didn't think many people voted RB because of Ironstone's meta case. (You are referring to Ironstone's point about how many images or gifs he used in his play, right?). Also, weren't half of us scum reading Ironstone at the point he made that post?

If anything, I would say that Ironstone's meta case was a minor point against RB, and that most people are/were sheeping Transcend or responding to Transcend's pressure. Have I misunderstood?

[shannon]

SSBM - I might be mistaken but I didn't think many people voted RB because of Ironstone's meta case. (You are referring to Ironstone's point about how many images or gifs he used in his play, right?). Also, weren't half of us scum reading Ironstone at the point he made that post?

If anything, I would say that Ironstone's meta case was a minor point against RB, and that most people are/were sheeping Transcend or responding to Transcend's pressure. Have I misunderstood?

Not sure. That is what I was referring to though. Lots of people were feeling suspicious about his posting patterns I think but idk how many people had him as a strong SR. I thought I remembered someone commenting that they thought it was a good catch but maybe not. I'm not sure that any of the votes on rb are sheeps. If people would sheep Transcend rb would be lynched.

That was me, I said that if RB does flip scum then it's a good catch by Ironstone. I town read ironstone for that whole post but after it I checked RB's iso and found it non-scummy.

[shannon]

Gerry's looking suspicious, I must admit.

RB more so, though.

How so?

This looks like someone who just wants to be with the in crowd and is getting ready to jump to Gerry if the wind blows that way

Bp is a common scumclaim

And rb has done nothing to act like a bp

There is

so much resistance on his slot too

.

And scum claim bp so they can claim pr and get away with not dying.

He's probably also a scum power role. .

Just noose him already. Cripes sake.

Think about

how hard the resistance is

to the rb lynch is.

[shannon]

Would someone (other than Transcend) like to explain please, with quotes, what the case on RB is?

[shannon]

rb has been lynched.

He was...

Spoiler:

Welcome to Mini 1857, rb!
You are a

Mafia Goon

. [REDACTED]
You may talk with your team, day or night, in [REDACTED].
Your team possesses a factional kill which any of you may perform during the night phase.

You win when mafia constitutes 50% of the remaining players with no other anti-town players not aligned with your faction alive

, or nothing can prevent the same.
The game thread is here.
Please confirm by responding to this PM with your role and alignment.

Please PM all night actions to me.

Deadline for night is in (expired on 2016-12-08 13:12:00)

So we have a third party then? (see bolded in spoilers)

[shannon]

No third party as confirmed by mod in post number 1 of this thread

Just saw that - "There are 10 town and 3 mafia aligned players".

It just pinged me that "anti-town players not aligned with your faction" is a weird to include if there are no third parties. Could there be anti-town players aligned with (but not part of) the mafia, hence the reference to mafia aligned players (rather than 10 town and 3 mafia players)? (I don't know I am just asking. It's OK if we attribute this to the mod's writing style).

[shannon]

Well he was obvious town. I'm guessing he used his BP shot, but mafia has a strongman it seems like.

Why would you guess that?

Because he had to know he was being killed? He direct cc'd

But he died, and if he'd used bulletproof he wouldn't have?

[shannon]

My reads are all messed up right now but I'm pretty confident in Kyouko, Sesq, and Shannon for town.

Explain, please.

I like a lot of the effort that Kyouko is putting in to solving the game. It could be faked but I don't get that from him. He seems to be considering every and any angle, investigating and reevaluating as much as he can, and following up with actual cases that force everyone to engage with him and the game itself.

You still read quite new to me and I don't see any scum intent in your posts.

I've been informed that Shannon didn't go anywhere last night and while that doesn't confirm anything, it makes me a feel whole lot better about my meta read on her.

@LUV: What did you mean by "my reads are all messed up right now"? Also, are you: claiming tracker; claiming that there exists an amnesiac (I think that's the modifier that sends your results to another player at random) tracker; choosing not to reveal that much yet?

@Shannon: Feel free to not comment on this for now if you so choose. If you went somewhere last night and are comfortable revealing that then let us know so we can lynch a liar, but if it's not worth revealing yet hold off.

Potential setup:
1x Town JOAT
1x Town Tracker
8x VT

1x Mafia JOAT (Strongman, Ninja, Roleblocker?)
1x Mafia Rolecop
1x Mafia Goon

that setup spec is not good

I'm figure LUV is scum (even scum-tracker, but not necessarily), claims result to clear scum-buddy figuring it is safe (doesn't actually claim a role) and with JOAT for town it is safe - if he is scumtracker even more confidence for him to claim a result on someone, and then it opens the possibility of him claiming it on a townie that he's got it on for the towncred

if someone else is an investigation role, I say we lynch LUV cause I don't see 2 inv roles for town this game.

I didn't go anywhere last night. I can't offer any counter to LUV's claim or any useful info about it, I don't think.

As D7 says, that proves nothing about either of us, unfortunately, except that I didn't kill Transcend, nor try to save/investigate anyone, unless I'm a ninja which would be cool but I'm not.

@LUV why did you give a result on me, given that it proves nothing?

[shannon]

I think LUV is town.

To my mind it seems silly for a scum team to come out and fake a role and a result when they've just lost RB, especially when Gerry was already in some people's minds as a lynch for today. I don't personally think LUV was under so much pressure as to necessitate a PR claim. Especially not one that gets him nowhere.

Yesterday someone (maybe it was Transcend) was saying they thought the two of us were connected and both scum. I think a few people had us in their scum pools. It just seems silly for Scum LUV to draw attention to himself by faking a result on me, or even to use his powers (if he's a scum tracker) and genuinely track me. (Why would Scum LUV think I'm a PR?). What I *can* see, though, is that Town LUV might be worried that this connection people are imagining between us is actually me as scum buddying him. So I think he legit tracked me for that reason.

Thoughts?

((Given that I had the shittest reads in the world on both RB and Transcend, I understand if everyone decides to vote LUV based on my town read of him))

[shannon]

Thoughts?

you're mad he made such a crap move as a scum-partner?

I don't think LUV is the type to make such obviously crap moves.

I'm the one who was pointing to rb-LUV and shannon-LUV but iirc I didn't see much in the way of shannon-rb. I'd have to check my notes on PC after work though. Transcend's town block basically adopted TTTTs scum pool plus Shannon so you were in at least a few lynch pools but you weren't the focus, at least not my focus.

Uzi, why did you target shannon? You saw what rb flipped before you had to choose if you were going to use your action. Since you're one shot, I'd also question your choice to use the shot last night. Why not save your action for later use or at least target someone like Gerry or Impoetic who were both low activity yesterday, or someone like TTTT, Drone, or ironstove who was on the counter wagon to scum?

OK, so having RB flip scum, and LUV claim to have investigated me (and said that I didn't go anywhere), what does that mean for your connections?
I also find it weird that you didn't see anything between RB and me, given that I just really didn't see the case for him as scum and said so quite vocally.

I would second your call for LUV to explain why he targeted me.

[shannon]

Errr hang on, LUV's justification was 'I didn't think RB would flip town' in 1481. But he got the flip before he had to pick a tracker target. HMMMMMM>

[shannon]

Oh, right SSBM said that above. He makes a good point!

[shannon]

@LUV can you please explain to me how all this (in spoilers) constitutes flying under the radar? Cos it kinda looks like Scum Me woulda been in trouble, with Transcend being pretty keen to have me killed off.

I'm also keen to know why you and RB both joined a wagon that I started early in the game, and then you just drifted off and voted no one for the entire rest of the day?

Spoiler:

Nice walls guys

But you're both town

Let's hang one of shannon, Uzi, kohai, Ironstove, or rb.

TTTT's scum pile is fucking excellent.

Kohai and Shannon are the other scum i think

VOTE: rb

Yes! Get that bus vote in man! I'll make note of it and suggest to town that we let you remain as the last scum to be lynched for your good behavior.

You're honestly sounding like an enormous scumfuck

But shannon and kohai are worse.

shannon

why couldn't u have been town with me again > : (

My case would just be vibes, which is no case at all.

and i have a vote on me already

why not strengthen that wagon tosee if your vibes are aaccurate or not

your play looks to careful and tactical

tonight's WWE match is shannon vs. the noose

who will be the winner?

my money's on the noose imo

Vig shannon or stove tonight btw

[shannon]

VC 1.10

Impoetic (3)

: Kohai, Transcend, ironstove

drealmerz7 (3)

: shannon, Lil Uzi Vert, rb

rb (1)

: TTTT

TTTT (1)

: Drone

Lil Uzi Vert (1)

: drealmerz7

Sesq (1)

: ssbm_Kyouko

Transcend (1)

: iamafluffyrabbit

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic, Sesq

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

Kohai is V/LA until the 28th.

I'm referring to this, btw.

Also @Impoetic I think we said something earlier about you being able to find scum after the flip by looking at your wagon and who was on it... might be time to go back and do that now.

[shannon]

I definitely find it interesting in retrospect. RB named me 'town for now' and joined the wagon I started, so that to me is a pretty clear attempt to garner some town cred through a bit of buddying. Kinda fell apart when people started pushing RB really heavily instead of pushing me, though.

The all-important question is what LUV was thinking, and why he voted nowhere at the end of day.

[shannon]

Crazy theory I'm nurturing: Impoetic/Titus scum team. The main reason I am TRing both of them is a combination of the conversation they had with each other and relying on Transcend's gut reads. Problem is, day talk is on and that whole conversation could have been rehearsed in the scum PT. Rabbit judged Impoetic as town for how fast she responded, saying that if she was scum it would be really hard to fake those responses so fast. Also note that neither of them would vote for rb yesterday iirc (can't check on mobile atm)

Now this ... this is interesting.

It's also interesting that Titus is being deliberately obtuse, by pretending not to know that D7 was talking to her in 1534.

We can always come back to LUV if we need to, but I think we should push this for info. It's so out there it just might be true.

VOTE: Titus

[shannon]

I have been looking at the wagons and going round and round in circles.

I feel like there's something going on with

Ironstove

. He's voting Gerry for the longest time (from vote count in 910 to vote count in 1321, then votes on RB *where Gerry is voting*. This screams 'late attempt at bussing'.

I am also wondering why

Impoetic

has never been shown as voting, in any of the vote counts. Care to explain that one please? I can see a vote on RB on 156 (called a joke), and a skim reveals no other votes.

On the plus side,

D7

looks town for his actions around the RB wagon.

VOTE: Impoetic

[shannon]

oh hey thanks for pointing that back out to me

Because he took no real major stance on Rb and coasted through the time.

and your stance was so real! - "he's town, because..." still waiting to hear why you thought he was town

vote titus ppl!

Like I said, there was no counter. I want to solve why now.

Alright, here's my attempt at solving the no counter wagon thing.

TL;DR: There was an attempt at a wagon o Gerry but it didn't gain traction.

First, because the people on it were open to moving to RB, and did so. So it never got further than three votes because people kept leaving instead of pushing it.

Second, those of us not on Gerry didn't want to join the wagon. RB I suppose was worried about looking worse for being opportunistic. I was stubbornly on Transcend. Titus's vote I have no idea about. LUV is kinda suspicious in note voting, and so is Impoetic who

never bloody votes

.

So that's it. If there's scum on the Gerry wagon, they're caught between trying to push that wagon and being seen to be on the RB one.

VC 1.31

rb (5)

: Transcend, drealmerz7, ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq, gerryoat

-- L-2!

gerryoat (3)

: TTTT, ironstove, Drone

TTTT (1)

: Titus

Transcend (1)

: shannon

Sesq (1)

: rb

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic, Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

Impoetic is V/LA until the 4th.

VC 1.32

rb (6)

: Transcend, drealmerz7, ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq, gerryoat, ironstove

-- L-1!

gerryoat (2)

: TTTT, Drone

TTTT (1)

: Titus

Transcend (1)

: shannon

Sesq (1)

: rb

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic, Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

Someone please bring me coffee. I'll love you forever.

VC 1.34 (FINAL)

rb (7)

: Transcend, drealmerz7, ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq, gerryoat, ironstove, TTTT

-- LYNCH!

gerryoat (1)

: Drone

Lil Uzi Vert (1)

: Titus

Transcend (1)

: shannon

Sesq (1)

: rb

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic, Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

Flip incoming.

[shannon]

D7 is probably my strongest town read and he wants Titus. LUV has supposedly cleared me, and he wants Titus. SSBM made that interesting point yesterday about the Impoetic/Rabbit(Titus) interactions. I think that's where today has got to go.

I'd like to lynch within {Titus, Gerry, Sesq, Ironstove} today. Titus for the aforementioned stuff. Gerry because he was yesterday's second wagon which mysteriously never got anywhere. Ironstove for voting on Gerry's wagon, and then jumping over to vote *with* Gerry on RB's wagon. Sesq because of placement on the RB wagon and because of the interactions with Titus - I feel like that could be a bit of scum theatre.

[shannon]

Pagetop?

[shannon]

Pagetop?

?

did you mean to put that in your scumchat?

I was hoping that posting after the mod would get me pagetop, since their post wasn't pagetop ... didn't think to actually count the posts and check what number we were up to

[shannon]

I'm going to go ahead and put Titus at L-2. I really want some proper responses from that slot and not just obtuse posts questioning minor points or pretending not to understand things.

VOTE: Titus

L-2

[shannon]

Is this why you wanted me to not out our private talk?
The only possible claim Titus can make now is town Neighbour btw.
So no need to wait for their claim at all.

could see one of shannon or drone being last maf with lil uzi. not sure which

Ooh, that's interesting, I've never played a game with neighbours before! From my understanding you get a private chat, but don't know each other's alignments, right?

I've no association at all with LUV. Gerry if you think this is the case, you ought to make a case on LUV now.

[shannon]

if someone else is an investigation role, I say we lynch LUV cause I don't see 2 inv roles for town this game.

Calling BS on having a 1 shot Tracker when we already have a Joat. Also you didn't need to even claim, you only claimed so a lynch wouldnt form on you after he flipped scum.

VOTE: Lil Uzi Vert

This? Or was there more?

[shannon]

UNVOTE:

[shannon]

I still don't get why Scum Uzi fakes a clear result on me of all people, though?

This game is doing my head in.

[shannon]

Not a case. Ignore him.

this looks really scummy/dismissive tbh

almost ready to vote you

It isn't. His case is basically I don't believe it's possible for a mini Normal to have two investigative roles

and I only claimed because I didn't want to her lynched.

The first point is false since you can ask any mod or look at past games to verify that such a setup is possible and the

second is just dumb. Of course I don't want to get lynched.

Who does?

Just read this again...

Your answer is a bit of a non-sequitur. The accusation you quote is that you only claimed because you didn't want *her* (me) lynched. You counter that by calling it dumb, because 'of course I (you) don't want to get lynched'.

I think you've revealed your true purpose in the claim here, and it wasn't to give info on me, it was to save your own ass.

Anyone else see this or am I reading it wrong?

[shannon]

Hi, welcome!

[shannon]

Shannon dreamer can you summarise the titus wagon real quick?

-Titus was town reading RB yesterday, and he flipped scum
-Titus has been a bit evasive and weird today, in the lead up to her claiming universal backup.
- There's speculation that Titus's predecessor got a town read based on a faked conversation that could have been scum/scum

I am interested to hear more about this neighbour thing and how it works.

[shannon]

Oh and I had that unvote post on Q+ (and a bunch more before I restarted my browser ooooops) because I didn't understand why you unvoted there since you didn't switch your vote

Unvoted to remove the risk of lynching a claimed PR, haven't voted because I don't know who to vote for yet

I've been over this already... today's posts by shannon and LUV are not those of a scumteam. This leaves the possbility that their could be 1 or 0 scum among them. If shannon were scum I'd say gerry is a likely partner but shannon being scum makes LUV town, which makes their claim true. If shannon gerry and rb is the team, and rb gets lynched, do you really see gerry performing the NK when he's the #2 suspect behind rb at end of day? Rhetorical question, the answer is no, shannon would do that kill, but LUV saw her go nowhere. I seriously doubt shannon somehow was a strongman and a ninja in the same night, so I'd say the chances of shannon being the 1 scum here are slim. Assuming LUV is the scum seems like an easy way for scum to push a mislynch off of my suspicions in D1. Nobody seems to be listening to what LUV is saying lately, which makes me think his wagon now is scum-driven. Look at Gerry posting about once a day to do nothing other than remind us to lynch LUV. Titus, if you're truly JOAT now you have a JK shot left, and you were suspicious of the way Gerry was talking about the strongman earlier right? Let's lynch Gerry today and you can jail Drone tonight.

I think Gerry is the 2nd scum and the last is in Titus/Drone

VOTE: Gerryoat

Spoiler: Fast and loose case on Gerry from a skim of his slot's ISO

Welcome back drone. Excellent analysis.

I'm off to bed. It's almost 3 am.

The above post was made wrt this post:

@rb
Plz explain that TR on me.
I mean, other than how your role PM told you that I'm not on your team.

Consistency is town trait
It's not a Newbie game, I think it's obvious and needless to say. But I can agree that it was a bit too early to give that read.

@Transcend
Why is Imp scum?
I'm going to split posts just so you can enjoy my avatar more...

Because of the 101st point on Impoetic, durr!

What strikes rb as scum to you?

Vote was based on gut upon game entry. Not really buying the cavalier meme-posting attitude on the first pages. Looks forced. Totally gut though.
Naked votes are best votes when entering a game.
Then rb said he couldn't remember why he was SRing ssbm.
Like this never happened

I just made a note "48 - enter rb:gets on the first wagon that is picking up with real intent but attributes his vote to an rvs policy lynch"
His motivation here is either scummy or towny so I'm hoping he's town

No way dude. You mean my motivation could be scummy OR towny? What an enlightening post, it's so good I think I might just

VOTE: ssbm

we should have more ssbm votes tbh

sesq is probably town rn

you can start by changing your vote to ssbm

super saiyan blue majiffy is probably not town tbh

super saiyan blue majiffy is probably not town tbh

Why do you think that?

post 54 is literally pointless fluff that serves no purpose except, 'look im contributing'

Upon wagon collapse, he gives me a TR.

TTTT goes like “look, I'm town alright? I have reasoning and I'm sure of what I'm doing" in this post. I'm buying it!

scum look bad if the wagon goes through, ppl lost their minds about it getting to L-2. i'd be mislynch but everyone on the wagon would be under suspicion - you don't really seem to give a shit because ur not worried about it, so ur town enough for now

But that means you didn't consider I'm a good enough scum player to not freak out about L-2.

Then he just shits on it with "fuck it, no I'm scum".

And that's why TTTT is scum guys!

It bothered me back then, and when I asked Kohai if that was sarcasm he didn't reply to me.

Fuck you spammers I don't want to read this garbage Lynch drone he's spamming this thread up why the fuck is there 18 pages?!?!

This guy is writing fucking nonsense and transcend is handing out town reads like hot cakes. He prob town reads Hitler too

VOTE: drone

I do not like this post at all.

Ironstove is now a strong scumread.

Flaming is rude as heck but not a scum trait imo. Leaves me thinking the flaming is an excuse to chainsaw ironstove to get pressure off Drone.

My top town reads right now are rabbit and drone.

Conveniently the 2 players I think this slot is most likely to be scum with.

Enter Gerry

This is my first scumread

VOTE: Drone

Distancing? Maybe? Not like anyone can call him out on this since he's just replaced in, so it's fine for his slot's reads to change.

Yo, I think transcend is town. And if his claim is legit then i think rb is maf from a setup standpoint. but hmmmm. question is, would rb REALLY claim BP as maf? that's like the most scummy PR claim. Is it too scummy to be scum? Or is it wifom that we would all think it's too scummy to be scum and unvote it. anyway, i think i'm gonna vote this for now

VOTE: rb

If anyone on the rb wagon was scum it's this^

No one wants to lynch D7/Impoetic so I'm forced to compromise.

why did you not track one of your 2 scumreads?You scumread them so much that you felt that you'd have to 'compromise' to vote someone else. @Lil Uzi Vert

This question doesn't take into consideration that LUV was expecting rb to flip town. Those scumreads of his were based on a very old conversation early in D1. d7's vocal pushing of rb probably was reinforcing that read up until the flip, where LUVs perspective was shattered. I'm guessing he looked at my posts pointing toward the associations between LUV, rb, and shannon, and tracked shannon because rb flipped scum and he knows he's town if he's really the tracker.

Thank you for laying this out so clearly.

also @Impo I think shannon's just going down the rabbit hole with me seeing what the game looks like if that was rehearsed. After outing and discussing that theory a bit I find it more likely that it was either fully legit or scum!iamafluffyrabbit was going 1 of 2 places with that conversation based on town!Impoetic's replies, and he decided to go with TRing you instead of pushing for your lynch because he thought other town would sense you were town before a mislynch could be secured.

Yep, this^^

[shannon]

OK, here's a thought. I won't claim it's a great thought, but it's a thought.

Titus, if her claim is genuine, *should* be night killed. But it's possible that either someone will step up to save her, who didn't make a save last night (maybe they're one shot) or Titus is scum.

Given what powers Town Titus has left, and how many of us can't trust the result even if she gives it, I think we should lynch her tomorrow if she lives. Let her give a result, potentially, and then lynch her to establish the truth of the claim.

We need to find someone else today.

[shannon]

If we successfully lynch scum today, there's absolutely no way we're lynching Titus tomorrow, unless guilty by someone. (if any)

Agreed. If we get scum today, especially if that scum is someone Titus scum reads, she's town tomorrow.

[shannon]

Fine I'll spill, I'm actually a 2-shot follower. Didn't want to give it away but you guys won't leave things alone.

Is this one of those things where you keep returning results and we find out you're actually a seventy five shot something or other?

[shannon]

that was all @sesq, I missed some posts since then. Sorry, I keep forgetting to preview.

[shannon]

Not sure how that happened, ignore 1842. What I meant to do is:

[shannon]

Still waiting on any reason for a townread Drone.

[shannon]

So should we lynch outside of Titus/LUV and have them both report actions and results tomorrow?
Would that work?

What if we get them to both report on the same person?

Titus tells her neighbour the result.
Then LUV posts his result.
The neighbour can confirm its correctness/plausibility
Titus can tell us whether or not the neighbour lied

This fails if both Titus and LUV are scum, but if they are both town or one is town we should get something useful?

[shannon]

That should do the trick.

Is that sarcasm? I'm assuming I've made some oversight here

[shannon]

VOTE: Gerry

[shannon]

That should do the trick.

Is that sarcasm? I'm assuming I've made some oversight here

No. But you gave me ideas;

A) You're setting up a WIFOM.
(if scum) you know both are actually town, nk one of them and blame the other.
It's beautiful, it's fresh, definitely something town might fall for.
Even includes bonus town points for you, for "scumhunting".
Special sale for the holidays; You get to ml someone else today.

B)
One of them is scum, you know it (if scum).
Pros:
Your "method" works, town satisfied with you.

Cons; You bus one of your allies.

C)
You're town and haven't thought of the option that both are town, and one of them can be nked, likely resulting in the other one being mled. Boo!

In response to:

A) Why bother suggesting a scheme when it's possible to just night kill someone anyway? Can you see that? If I were scum I'd be trying to lay low and then nix a PR tonight, not suggesting ways we can clear them.

B) Would town really be satisfied with me, though? If LUV was shown to be scum, do you really think I would be townread since he gave a 'no movement' on me N1? Titus is already scum reading me to some degree, so I'm sure if she was shown scum from this I would be accused of bussing.

Frankly if one of them is shown to be scum *and* I get lynched D3, that's fine - we've got 2/3 of the scum team and I'm sure the rest of you can figure out the last person. I think the sacrifice is totally worth it.

C) OK, that's the sort of flaw I was hoping someone would point out. Is the plan totally off-base, or can it be changed somehow to be more likely to give a result? Can we consider it a jumping off point or is there no way such a chain of checkers could work?

D) You've left out one other thing, which is that information about the Titus's neighbour's alignment might also be revealed...

[shannon]

So should we lynch outside of Titus/LUV and have them both report actions and results tomorrow?
Would that work?

What if we get them to both report on the same person?

Titus tells her neighbour the result.
Then LUV posts his result.
The neighbour can confirm its correctness/plausibility
Titus can tell us whether or not the neighbour lied

This fails if both Titus and LUV are scum, but if they are both town or one is town we should get something useful?

This plan says trust my entire scumreads but for the scumread proposing it.

*sigh* mathematically we can't all be scum. I'm trying to figure a way to sort this out, usefully. By all means if you have a better idea of how to prove your claim, let's hear it.

[shannon]

During the night Transcend was killed.

He was…

Spoiler:

Welcome to Mini 1857, Transcend!
You are a

Town Jack of All Trades

.
Your abilities are:
1-Shot Bulletproof – You may activate this at night to make yourself impervious to one killing action that night.
1-Shot Jailkeeper – You may choose a player to jail at night, causing any actions by them or on them during that night phase to fail.
1-Shot Gunsmith – You may choose a player to investigate for a gun that night. Possible results are “Has a gun”, “Does not have a gun”, and “No result”.
You may activate only one ability per night.
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and at least one town player is still alive.
The game thread is here.
Please confirm by responding to this PM with your role and alignment.

Day 2 begins now!

OK, more questions about this role thing - -

If another PR dies, does Titus get their powers?

Transcend's death and use of the Bulletproof (if Titus is telling the truth and he actually used it) suggests a strongman (or ninja?). What are the chances that this was one shot?

Is Titus effectively a PR, if there's an active strongman? Like if she jailkept someone, would it stick?

With the gunsmith thing, given that it returns both mafia and cops as having guns, should we expect that we have a town cop?

[shannon]

This turned out to be giant. I'll spoiler most of it, please read the end bit if it's all you have time for. If you're voting me, you should at least take time to read the whole thing.

Spoiler:

Shannon what are your actual reads?
No setup speculation. No theories, no "if X happens Y should happen", none of that. Scumreads, stances, opinions.

This is the thing: I can't have reads independently theories on what's happening with the claims. And I don't think any of you have independent reads, either.

Yesterday, I scum read Transcend for lying. I didn't believe his crumbs, and it turned out I was right about his lie, but wrong about his alignment. I think I outright said that the reason I didn't want to hardcore wagon him was because if we lost him, we would be worse off than if we had ScumTranscend in our midst.

That's pretty much how I'm thinking today, *except* that we've got no prospect of getting useful info from the PRs (see below), which changes their lynchability.

Friendly reminder that Shannon didn't visit anyone last night according to LUV.

On the other hand, a lot of what raskolnikov said resonates with what I was thinking and/or brings to attention things I hadn't noticed. I don't think she's the *only* person who has those problems, though perhaps the only person who has all of them simultaneously. I know I still need to ISO people though

Rask, I take it you don't want to lynch either of the PR claims so far, right?

Is that off reads or mechanics?

Here's the thing about lynching our PR claims - The group has expressed independent reasons to scum read them, besides the claims. (That's why Titus ended up claiming). And my setup questions have revealed that we've no real means of getting useful or trustworthy info from either of them.

The problem we have is that the scum pool at the moment seems to be two PR claims, and me. So anyone you'd (I use that term generically) want the PRs to investigate is either another PR, or me. If you think two scum are in this group you can't trust the results and you might not get them anyway.

If LUV said again that I went nowhere, would you believe it? Given the scum read on him? And the one on me? Do you even believe his role claim? (What if he said Titus went nowhere?)

If Titus gave a gunsmith result on someone, would you believe it? What if she said

I

had no gun? Would you believe that or would it make us the scum team?

And then there's the fact that Titus is almost certainly dead, unless there's some protective PR we're not aware of. Even so, we've pretty much established that scum has a Strongman, so it's a moot point. TL;DR: She's going to give a result you don't trust, or not get to live to get a result.

I have been trying to establish whether lynching one of these two is a better option than waiting and seeing. That is the entire purpose of my questioning about setup. If there's any way we can guarantee that one of them lives to tell us a result, then we should not lynch them. If there's not, we might as well lynch one of them today.

The problem I've found is that if we wait and see, we still can't trust the result because they're somehow also the scum pool.

I think Town is mistaken about the scum pool and needs to look more widely.

If we manage to lynch scum today though it means that there can't be 2 scum among those 3. Problem is, if there are 2 scum among those 3 we literally can't lynch scum today if we lynch outside of them. This train of thought seems circular and I don't think lynching outside of them today is optimal. We don't have to lynch from within them, it just doesn't make sense to me to eliminate them from our choices.

Sesq, Gerry, what're your takes on Raskol's case against shannon?

If there are two scum among the three of us, then this is the Best Town Ever and deserves an award for efficiency. I think it's unlikely.

Options for the 'two of three are scum' theory, as accurately as I can see them:

Titus is town. LUV faked a result on me to try to get us both town read, and mucked it up royally. First by claiming at all when not under pressure, second by changing the claim when eventually pressured. He's going to have to fake a result again tonight, either on me (which doesn't make sense) or on someone else. Better hope he guesses their activity correctly.

I am town. LUV thinks I'm important enough to try to buddy by faking a result on me. Titus is fake claiming for town cred and is going to have to explain why she doesn't die tonight. Titus and LUV agreed on this strategy.

LUV is town. His result on me is genuine, and he really felt he might be lynched or NKed tonight, so he got it out early. I am scum but wasn't the one who made the kill. Titus made the kill. She's claimed to try to cover her ass, but going to have to explain if she lives tonight. She should have fake claimed something else and didn't have the foresight to do so.

Can you see how unrealistic these scenarios are?

My *personal* opinion is that there might be one, or 0, scum among the three of us, and we need to look at who has been slyly working to set up this whole 'group of three' thing. We have all been chasing our tails and trying to point the finger at the other guy, which I think is mistaken.

What happened to Drone? What happened to Gerry? Was anyone townreading Ironstove yesterday?

I don't have the answers but someone with more time than me can probably find them.

[shannon]

well if that's where we are then I want to lynch LUV

VOTE: LUV

HAMMEREED!

Only scum quickhammers like that you're next buddy

For anyone skimming, this is not a hammer

[shannon]

Shannon, what are your reads, what did you learn from wagoning me?

Ignoring me three times is a hanging offense. You're at 1.

Don't be melodramatic.

I think you and LUV are both town. D7 town. SSBM town. Impoetic town. (The last two are my weakest two reads)

Scum within Gerry, Drone, TTTT, Rask.

[shannon]

Reply to Sesq 1958:

Noticed thing #1: Did someone in the past claim to have protected Transcend? That's the only way that we can have confirmed strongarm, and even then, we don't have solid PR claims so far.

Titus claimed that the BP shot was used, and Transcend died. I thought that meant there had to be a strongman somewhere? Or is there another role that can kill through bulletproofness?

Noticed thing #2: She says that town should look more widely. I don't know if it's perhaps because one of the current people on the lynchplatter (LUV, titus, shannon) are scum, or if town!shan wants there to be more looks outside for scumhunting, or if scum!shan knows there isn't scum in LUV or Titus, and wants to further disseminate votes and possibly wagon on to someone that would benifit scum to die. Under this line, the PR claims might be questionable as it would be helpful to lynch them, but this is mostly speculation.

I didn't start out my post from that point. If you read the thing in the spoilers it probably shows, because I couldn't be assed going back and retconning the whole thing to show the conclusion I eventually reached. The idea just kind of dawned on me as I as trying to work out which of LUV and Titus was scum, or how they were scum together, since someone (you?) suggested that there were two scum among us. I just couldn't make the math work. Unless they're playing a super weird strategy, there's at best one scum between three of us and we need to look further afield.

And really, are people going to wait for me to flip town before they look starting further than Titus and Uzi?

Noticed thing #3: Yeah, the wagons on gerry and iron (now rask) should be looked upon. I never understood people scumreading drone, but I do more now, kind of, not really.

Hooray!

[shannon]

@shannon
Are you ever going to answer this?
I've asked three times

I think you and LUV are both town. D7 town. SSBM town. Impoetic town. (The last two are my weakest two reads)

Scum within Gerry, Drone, TTTT, Rask.

you left sesq out.
what's your read?

Right, sorry, Sesq I'm on the fence about.

[shannon]

this is what scum likes, btw

drone or titus or luv or shannon is the lynch

vote who you think is scummiest

GO

In the spirit of moving toward a compromise: VOTE: Drone

[shannon]

@Shannon

1. Why did you vote titus for "more info" without actually asking her anything? What specifically did you want from her at that point?
2. What happened to your townread on titus's slot from fluffyrabbit regarding that push? I don't understand how you townread both titus's slot and impoetic d1 and then voted both of them early d2.
3. 1794 you suggest titus be lynched if she isn't killed, 1866 suggest both titus and luv report on the same person (which doesn't even prove align, just role) but you say you strong townread both of them. I don't see the logic behind pushing for either of these if you heavily townread both slots?

1) It wasn't to get more info from Titus, it was to get more info about what people thought of her and who was going to add pressure, who was going to defend, who was going to react etc.

2) My D1 read on Implosion was such ass that I thought I should radically reconsider

3) My town reads have wavered rather than being constant. I'm trying to be less prone to wavering due to other people's ideas, but I still do it. What I was trying to do with the reporting suggestions is work out a way to prove their roles or alignment, one way or another. It may be that it's not possible to do so. The reason I straight out suggested lynching Titus is that if she's really the JOAT now she's dead anyway, and some people are scum reading her to the point that if she was to survive the night they'd suspect she was scum. This is no longer the view I hold, by the way.

[shannon]

Don't be melodramatic.

I think you and LUV are both town. D7 town. SSBM town. Impoetic town. (The last two are my weakest two reads)

Scum within Gerry, Drone, TTTT, Rask.

So this is PoE then?
Do you have a preference specifically?
From your gerryoat vote I'd assume you wanted gerryoat the most, but I have my own questions regarding that in my case if you could answer them.

All in all he's probably town, being the first one to call out LUV for legitimate reasons and he was pretty clearly the counterwagon to rb d1 (which is pretty rarely scum).
I've played with him before (... that fucking pinger lynch ) and nothing's really standing out.

In the spirit of moving toward a compromise: VOTE: Drone

Why do you prefer gerry over drone?

Noticed thing #3: Yeah, the wagons on gerry and iron (now rask) should be looked upon. I never understood people scumreading drone, but I do more now, kind of, not really.

Can you explain in your own words what you agree with and disagree with?

Yep, pretty much POE. I don't think my preference makes much difference at this point, it's clear that we're going to have to compromise.

I don't trust you when you say you've played with him before and nothing's really standing out. I've played with LUV before and nothing's really standing out, but that's not going to get us very far, is it?

To give you a good answer about Gerry and Drone I'll have to do more re-reading than I have time for at the moment.

[shannon]

If scum flip, Titus JK your top scumread, if town flip, Titus should tell drone who he is Gunsmithing. If we get 2 night kills vigi should wait until Titus says if she GSed anyone (assuming she survives) before claiming so that scum!Titus can't fake a "has a gun" claim on you

If LUV flips scum I bet any action happening happens on me. At least that will clear me, finally.

(Or if Titus fakes a bad result at least when *I* get lynched you'll discover she was lying. But I don't think that will happen, gut is telling me Titus is town)

[shannon]

If anyone here can see any reason why Drone should not hammer LUV, let them speak now or forever hold their peace.

[shannon]

Because everyone has had enough of the to- and fro- ?

[shannon]

Sesq you are online, are you going to post?

[shannon]

Lil Uzi Vert (5): TTTT, gerryoat, drealmerz7, Titus, ssbm_Kyouko

loving this
every last one of my TRs is on the wagon with me
and everyone off the wagon is null at best

one of you "null at best" players should hurry up and hammer

I'm not hammering a town read in this context

[shannon]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68482

Found this game as a goldmine of sorts, shannon titus and LUV are all in it.

Shannon has actual reads here as town and is a lot more involved. She's constantly asking questions here and gives detailed reads on most people without the bizarre claim or role focus I get here.
Titus as town seems stylistically similar with the same sort of conviction, though that game she ended up tunneling mason and even when the other mason backed it up she thought it was a lie.
Luv is harder to judge but never seems to do anything to draw attention to himself, which in this case the claims definitely would. It's still weird but I'd give him a night anyways to hedge bets, especially as I'm not sure both lil and shannon scum make sense given that result (would be pretty brave, anyways).

My best bet atm is shannon-drone, drone scumread shannon for a while right until the wagon happened but quickly changed when she got voted up. Which I don't get because her answers weren't really satisfying.

That's at best a selective reading. Here's some other things you missed:

1) I said something silly early on that earned me a scum read and I nearly got lynched, pretty much no one town read me all game I was just 'not the scummiest'.
2) I asked lots of theory questions, and identified the scum team (which included LUV) based on wagon analysis and role claims. (We had claimed masons and a Hated claimant too).
3) Titus played the same as she's playing now, making judgments contrary to the majority and not giving much info.
4) You are correct that LUV didn't do much to draw anything to himself in that game, but he also *got caught* in that game - so I don't think it should be counted as alignment indicative.

[shannon]

I had to read up on the ascetic thing, and OK, it makes sense as a role modifier that could give 'no result' to the GS investigation. Are there any other roles that could do the same? Is ascetic necessarily scum, or just more likely in the current scenario?

Prima facie I'd say that we should ask for a claim from whoever Titus' target was, and then discuss whether it's plausible and lynch the hell out of it if not. If the target flips town with no modifier that would suggest a no result, then Titus is a no-brainer lynch the next day.




I'm clearly out of the loop here, can anyone explain?

[shannon]

Ugh hit enter too quickly without fixing my nonsensical last sentence.

I'm clearly out of the loop here, can anyone explain what the other options are for 'no result' investigations?

[shannon]

Alright, have I got things straight this time? (Titus, if I've left something out it's an oversight/lack of understanding on my part, not me trying to paint you as scum).

The options are:

A.
Transcend was roleblocked after activating BP
Titus inherited the remaining powers.
Titus attempted to check someone for a gun last night, but got no result.
She may have been roleblocked or there may be an ascetic.

(Questions: What are the chances of a multi-shot roleblocker? Why wasn't Titus killed as well as blocked?)


B.
Transcend activated BP but was strongmanned.
Titus inherited the remaining powers.
Titus attempted to check someone for a gun last night, but got no result.
She may have been roleblocked, or there may be an ascetic.

(Questions: Is a 1 shot strongman likely? If not, why wasn't Titus killed last night? Are a strongman and a roleblocker together likely in this setup?)


C.
Transcend didn't activate BP, he used a different power thinking that he would be saved by another town PR, but he got NKed
Titus inherited the remaining powers
Titus used the BP last night, but is pretending that she used gunsmith instead.
Titus wasn't roleblocked (or if she was, scum didn't attempt to kill her as well). There could still be a roleblocker or an ascetic but because Titus didn't check anyone she has no way of knowing.

(Questions: What does Titus get from this, other than watching us all guess who was investigated?)


D.
Titus is talking out her ass and is scum or a VT on a gambit

[shannon]

Following on from the VC post (and thank you for colour coding), in spoilers are what I think are the key L-1 and L-2 wagons, with colours. Dark green = conf town, light green = town according to SSBM. I'm giving SSBM a town colour for the sake of the exercise, as well as giving myself one because I know my role PM and because LUV found no motion on me. (From all of your perspectives, consider that as 'for the sake of the exercise').

If we accept that SSBM and I are both town, some interesting stuff comes out:

- The initial L-1 wagon on RB in 910 was all town + Drone. When the lynch actually happened in 1397, though, Gerry, Iron, and TTTT had replaced Drone and LUV on it.

- The L-1 wagon on Titus in 1641 was all town + Drone.

- The wagon on me in 1930 was all town + Rask

- LUV's wagon was a mix of people SSBM is town reading, and TTTT, gerry, Titus, and Drone.

The lynches are carried out by remarkably similar groups

Transcend

,

drealmerz7

,

ssbm_Kyouko

, Sesq,

gerryoat

, ironstove,

TTTT

TTTT

,

gerryoat

,

drealmerz7

, Titus,

ssbm_Kyouko

, Drone

Spoiler:

VC 2.20 (FINAL)

Lil Uzi Vert

(6)

: TTTT, gerryoat,

drealmerz7

, Titus,

ssbm_Kyouko

, Drone

-- LYNCH!

shannon

(1)

: Raskolnikov

Drone (1)

:

shannon

Titus (1)

:

Lil Uzi Vert

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic,

Sesq

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

Flip incoming.

VC 2.15

shannon

(4)

: Raskolnikov,

drealmerz7

,

ssbm_Kyouko

,

Sesq

-- L-2!

gerryoat (1)

:

shannon

Sesq

(1)

: Drone

Titus (1)

:

Lil Uzi Vert

Lil Uzi Vert (1)

: TTTT

Drone (1)

: Titus

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic, gerryoat

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

VC 2.08

Titus (5)

:

ssbm_Kyouko

,

drealmerz7, Lil Uzi Vert

,

shannon

, Drone

-- L-1!

Lil Uzi Vert (2)

: gerryoat, TTTT

NOT VOTING (4)

: Impoetic, Titus, ironstove,

Sesq

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

TTTT is V/LA until the 12th.

VC 1.34 (FINAL)

rb (7)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7

,

ssbm_Kyouko,

Sesq

, gerryoat, ironstove, TTTT

-- LYNCH!

gerryoat (1)

: Drone

Lil Uzi Vert

(1)

: Titus

Transcend (1)

:

shannon

Sesq (1)

:

rb

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic,

Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

Flip incoming.

VC 1.20

rb (6)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7

, Drone,

ssbm_Kyouko

,

Lil Uzi Vert,

Sesq

-- L-1!

gerryoat (2)

: TTTT, ironstove

Drone (1)

: gerryoat

Sesq (1)

:

rb

ssbm_Kyouko (1)

: iamafluffyrabbit

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic,

shannon

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

iamafluffyrabbit is V/LA until the 2nd.

[shannon]

Based on this, I reckon we have a Rask + Drone team. They are taking turns to be on the most popular wagon, but both needed to join the LUV one to get the PR lynch through.

I would be very, very interested to hear who Titus targeted last night.

[shannon]

Thanks for catching that, I only looked at the mod's posts.

Kohai is Titus, right? And Ironstove is now Rask?

[shannon]

What are the chances that titus and drone are faking neighbours and actually the scum team?

[shannon]

Based on this, I reckon we have a Rask + Drone team. They are taking turns to be on the most popular wagon, but both needed to join the LUV one to get the PR lynch through.

I would be very, very interested to hear who Titus targeted last night.

Wow.
Yes.
When Raskolnikov replaced Ironstove, we still kept the original plan.
Oh dear.

VOTE: Shannon

You aren't even the center of attention, how can you afford that shading?
You are better of off the radar, but... You have the urge to prove innocence, cause you're not... Right?

I'm taking that as an OMGUS, but do note that I'm not yet convinced enough of anything to vote *anywhere*, and certainly not until Titus reveals her target.

I don't understand the last two sentences. Are you talking about me trying to throw shade, or about me shading my own name green? If the latter, why *wouldn't* I do that? I know my role, and you all know that LUV legit found me doing sweet FA night one. I get that you don't trust me, which is fine, so just read my post with that in mind and move on.

But you didn't tell me whom, when asked about it you said you didn't because I could fuck it up.
How?
You told me the result, not target.

Right. I want to see reactions of town versus scum.

I voted Shannon due to the absence of a roleblock assumption, which suggests scum did not block me

.

There's something called slow play of information. I am good with it as cop.

See Wake's Role Madness. I guilted practically all of the scum. Only my first check was wrong.

Alright, have I got things straight this time? (Titus, if I've left something out it's an oversight/lack of understanding on my part, not me trying to paint you as scum)

.

PS Until today we've been working on the assumption of a strongman, not a roleblocker. I'm trying to reconcile all this new information.

[shannon]

Ssm, please hand over your dunce cap. Shannon is scum with the target of my check.

Soooo let me get this straight:

You scum read me, and think LUV was faking a result on me. He flips town which verifies his result, but you *don't* check me for a gun, you check someone else. You get no result on them, but then claim that I'm scum *with* that person?

[shannon]

@Titus here's a simpler explanation: The people throwing theories around first were just the first ones back online...

[shannon]

I can't tell whether Titus believes this stuff she's spouting or whether she's scum

[shannon]

I'm wikiing around looking at other options for Titus being genuine:

We could have a rolestopper who targeted the same player as her last night

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Rolestopper

[shannon]

Re-reading today, have some questions:

Well there goes my other townread. Only one nightkill again I'm starting to wonder if we even have a vig. Titus what did you do last night and who did you target?

I think it's possible, but not likely (not the simplest explanation) that we have a vig. The description of the BP power says that it blocks one attempt at killing, so perhaps a vig and scum both targeted Transcend. (Again, not simple, probably unlikely, but I thought of it).

I got no result on my gs check. I am treating this as a guilty on the target. Result at midday.

Is it noon yet?

*snip*

If Drealm flipped town, and so did LUV..
We might as well check Shannon again.

The remaining check would be a jailkeep, right? I can't tell you how keen I am to have Titus jailkeep me and see what result she comes up with.

[shannon]

PEdit: I've read the rest of the posts and I can't get to reply tonight because I spent such a long time writing this. Hope it makes sense and at least sparks conversation.

Here's what I've got about Titus's target:

It's not SSBM (see 2145 asking whether the target is SSBM's buddy)

It's not me (see 2185 where Titus says I'm scum with the target of the check. She also implies that SSBM and I are not scum together)

It's not Drone. In 2125 Titus says Drone would have shot her target. **note: For Drone to have shot the target, Drone would need to be scum and the target town.Unless Drone is a town vig - but why vig someone who is going to be investigated anyway? This doesn't add up to me**

In 2166 Titus is 'reasonably sure' her target is scum due to "jumping out of the wood work to attack me," and she is telling Drone who the target is.

Now we are looking for people who have 'jumped out of the wood work' to attack Titus as of 2166.

Rask hadn't posted yet.
Sesq hadn't posted yet
Impoetic hadn't posted yet
Gerry - only asked a question (did she or did she not tell Drone who was targeted) so that's not an attack.
TTTT - voted Titus ('something's not right) in 2154, but I would not call that 'jumping out of the woodwork to attack'

The only people who might be even remotely construed as 'jumping out to attack' are SSBM, Drone, and me. But she's already said that none of us were her target.

In 2169 Titus says that:

"No result suggested scum, but it's the rapid change in underlying thought.

Yesterday, the theory was scum roleblocked rb.
If Titus lives, scum have to mess with her. I must out my selected action immediately. Strongly suggests there's an ascetic buddy who needs protecting."

The person who asked Titus immediately to out her target was SSBM, back in 2119. 2144 would be the 'rapid change in underlying thought'. She has already asked SSBM whether she's the target's buddy back in 2145.

In 2168 Drone has received the name of Titus' target, but this is enough for a vote on Titus.

2169 "The rapid votes indicate my target is scum".
The votes to that point were:

Titus votes Shannon in 2142
SSBM votes Titus in 2144
TTTT votes Titus in 2154
Drone votes Titus in 2168

The phrase 'rapid votes' implies someone later on the wagon is suspicious, because there's nothing 'rapid' about being the first vote. The problem here is that Titus can't have it both ways. If it's SSBM who is voting Titus to defend a scum buddy, then the other votes aren't suspicious because they're genuine and the phrase 'rapid votes' is plain wrong and Titus' whole statement is basically rubbish. TTTT's rapid vote could be opportunistic if she suspects she's been the target of the investigation. Drone's could also be opportunistic, but given that Titus has earlier said she thought Drone would shoot her target, this doesn't make sense.

TL;DR: I can't make any good sense of what Titus is saying, and I think that's because she's lying.

[shannon]

I strongly think Shannon/Imp is the team but Drone fullbarrelling Shannon is my sole hesitation there given my half done VCA.

You still think it's more likely that Impoetic is ascetic vs. you were roleblocked?

On Titus' view, this means Impoetic went VLA to lurk after shaking off her wagon, then came back and did the night action. Or that I am also a ninja, since LUV didn't see me move on N1.

[shannon]

Really, that's all you have to say to everything that happened in these pages? IioA recap.

Yes and Yes.

Don't have time to do a re-read of Impoetic, and all I can do about the continued scum read on me is so yeah that's it for now.

[shannon]

@ SSBM I absolutely think scum could win in LYLO. Imagine it with me, titus, and drone, how the hell would a good decision be possible there, for any of us?

This is the whole problem I have with Titus' claims: They're indistinguishable from what scum would say. I can fit them in to a scum narrative as well as in a town one. I don't think I can even look at them objectively because I'm emotionally involved; she's brought me to the centre of it, and put me in a position where no matter how I'm investigated, she'll never believe the result = I'm town. I don't think it's fair that I get scum read because LUV saw me not move on N1. And I don't see how I'm possibly connected to the result on Impoetic, if Titus wasn't already presupposing my alignment.


Here's how it works from Scum Titus' POV:

Claiming universal backup buys time.
Using the gun check means that a townie's death N2 is explainable, as there was no claim Titus tried to block it. (Also adds to WIFOM, why are scum letting Titus live, etc. etc)
No result on a gun check is convenient because it can't be effectively counter claimed.
It sets up the potential for an ascetic, as well as the strongman implied by N1.
So come N3, this supposed ascetic can't be jailed, and the supposed other strongman can't be stopped either. Better lynch them both ASAP!


And from Town Titus' POV:

LUV's initial claim was unlikely given her role as universal backup, so that deserves a scum read.
The changing claim makes it worse.
The result 'no action' is given on me, implicating us as a team. ((I can't see why either LUV or I would think Titus would fall for this, but sure))
LUV flips town - time to reconsider. But she's already committed to a scum read on me.
Titus checks Impoetic for a gun, gets no result ((I'm still not sure why she did this instead of attempting a jailkeep))
Titus now knows there's either an ascetic, a roleblocker, or someone else preventing her from acting, and a strongman given the N1 kill.
Titus knows she was allowed to live for WIFOM, but how can she get us to see that?


All in all I don't know which version makes most sense.

[shannon]

I think that because town!Titus makes sense without making any huge stretches that it seems like a good idea to keep her alive today when she's a claimed PR. I think Roleblocker is most likely in this setup and if we lynch RB today then Titus still has JK to potentially stop tonight's kill and set us up for D6 MyLo with no-lynch D5. If Titus and Drone both live to see tomorrow and we miss scum today one of them has to die to see if the neighbor claim is real. D5 is LyLo if we proceed D3 ml>N3 scum NK (no vig shot, no protection)>D4 ml> N4 scum NK. We have 2 mislynches left

before

LyLo and Impoetic looks reasonably scummy right now. You can read my case on her, you don't have to reread her whole ISO.

She's also been coasting most of the game and if she's town she would be a terrible choice to have alive in LyLo, because she'll still look scummy and will be an easy target for scum. She will be there as town if we don't ml her - no way does scum NK her if she's town. She hasn't voted hardly at all this game either which is another reason she would look scummy in LyLo. If she's town and we mislynch her today we'll have better odds of hitting scum the next 2 days because she won't be around as an easy push tomorrow and in LyLo.

If you're town shannon I hope this reasoning gets through to you eventually even if you don't see the possibility of scum!Impoetic from my case

This is reason enough, really. We can't win with someone who's not posting or voting. I called her out for not voting and someone made the excuse that she's VLA and told me to back off, I can't remember who that was and I don't have time to look right now because I have to go to work.

I also don't have time to check the vote count, so take my vote as though it's on impoetic

[shannon]

Impoetic if you just keep playing you'll be fine, you're not that far behind mostly we are just arguing the toss about Titus vs Drone vs Me and now we're talking about you.

PS - You missed the part where you were asked to claim x

[shannon]

yeah shannon declared her vote should be seen as on you already and then TTTT voted putting you at L-1 so if she's asking for a claim now I assume it's intent to hammer from her.
Do you have intent to hammer shannon?
Also don't hammer before Sesq/Drone talk please

I won't hammer until we get the Sesq/Drone stuff.

I'd really like it if we could agree on a course of action going forward, or at least a general strategy, for both possible results of this flip.

[shannon]

@Sesq do you consider Impoetic a compromise lynch, or do you 100% oppose it?

[shannon]

@Sesq do you consider Impoetic a compromise lynch, or do you 100% oppose it?

And with 11 days left, there's no way anyone should be on a compromise lynch, especially as a hammerer.

Totally agree.

This is a liability lynch (oops) rather than a scum lynch, meaning mafia gets a free day even though I'm still considering subbing out (have been posting without being caught up so I'm pretty sure I'm further behind than you think, Shannon -- though the potential subber-inner would be that far behind too, they'd most likely be better than me) so the fact that I *am* subbing out should be cause for unvote unless you actually SR me, which I don't remember people voicing while I was actually active (except that brief wagon at d1 which dissipated just as briefly).

I'm beginning to think that with daytalk on shannon could have placed a quick vote on you to make your wagon look too easy/fast so that it would break up. Other people could reason it was my vote that did that but I know that if any vote was placed intentionally to make the wagon dissipate it was shannon's. That's when you followed up saying something like "wait don't speedlynch me guys I just saw like 3 votes" (quoting from memory) and then the wagon broke up soon after

@Impoetic: It's not good asking me to unvote you, since I'm not voting you. I said that they should take my vote as though it was on you, but someone else has voted since - my intention was to L-1 you to get you participating, not to hammer you.

The case atm from titus is impoetic is scum because titus got no result on her and shannon started attacking titus (before titus revealed). Otherwise titus herself said she'd consider roleblock as the explanation about as likely if not more.

But it is possible titus was roleblocked and shannon took it as opportunity without the explicit target being relevant.

Consider the following:

why is titus alive?

If you leave a claimed PR alive you're intending to mislynch them or at least have it as an option. And you follow up on this either directly attacking them or otherwise casting shade.
The pool of people that makes is Shannon, TTTT, ssbm_kyouko and partially drone.

Of all of these shannon's stance on titus hasn't really made sense (d2 wagon) whereas I think I can follow the progression of kyouko and sort of TTTT. Drone did vote titus but his logic was entirely on other things; if you're going to leave someone alive to take issue with you don't attack them for entirely different reasons or even back off in under 3 hours (2168), so I don't think he really qualifies.
Shannon didn't vote titus (shannon's style in general seems to be coming in at the end with the "compromise" vote rather than leading anything though) but cast a ton of shade and focused on the theory and the places that make sense for this. Read 2309. Shannon throughout isn't having an independent drive or views but focuses on public opinion, what "everyone" thinks is a good idea and I believe trying to bring our focus to specific areas where it shouldn't be.

Titus's theory mostly hinges on shannon scum anyways but I think titus being roleblocked and having been a pre-planned target is more likely here.

@Rask: I have no idea why Titus is alive. As scum, there's no way I'd leave a claimed PR alive, I wouldn't be that confident in my ability to mislynch them (especially Titus). We also have to ask why Transcend was killed N1 for having claimed a PR with way less powers than what he actually had, but Titus has been left to live with scum fully knowing what powers she has. To me, it makes sense that Titus is scum.

My general style isn't coming in with a compromise lynch, at all. The reason I've not voted Titus is because I'm still trying to weigh it up in my head. If she's being truthful, I don't want to lose what seems to be our last PR shot. And as SSBM has said, there's a way in which Titus' result and interpretation makes sense, and I'm still trying to get more information.

But Titus being alive, plus the 'no result' result, looks really bad to me. Like I said before, it looks like what scum would do to try to get away with the claim. Similarly, if she doesn't trust me, I don't get why she didn't investigate me last night. I also don't get why a 'no result' on Impoetic is being treated as a guilty, and how she's leaping to make the connection to me. It makes no sense unless she starts from the false premise that I'm scum, but if she thought that, why not check me for a gun? Why not jailkeep me and see if there's still a death?

If I'm focused on public opinion, it's because I've seen it work as a town strategy. I've been in a game that was won because, although some of the Town had scum reads on each other, we collectively agreed to lynch the *one person* everyone agreed on, and that ended up being the right person a few days running. I think that's what's going to be needed here. So yes, I'm trying to feel out whether people are on Impoetic as a compromise, whether it's just a LYLO strategy, etc. I'm not fence sitting, I'm trying not to rush judgment.

The other thing I've been trying to do is establish a strategy that will allow us to get the maximum information from each night and claim. If we'd not lynched LUV yesterday, he could have followed Titus and we'd have had more info about what really went on. If we'd known that Titus had targeted Impoetic last night, for real, then that would have changed today's whole focus.

Actually now what I think is a good idea is to look at who was on the LUV lynch and why.

[shannon]

@Shannon

If you think titus is scum why do seem so okay/meh with lynching impoetic with her just now??

There's a reason I didn't actually vote, let's put it that way. I wanted to see whether my expressed intention to vote would derail the wagon, given that lots of folks have a scum read on me.

I think the only way anyone will have a town read on me is when I actually flip town. And even then, there will be room for Scum Titus to wheedle her way out of her analysis of me.

On D2 people (self included) were trying to brainstorm ways that Titus and LUV could both either prove their claims via mutually agreed investigations. Titus said that any strategy that relied on her living would be rubbish. And yet, somehow, LUV got lynched and Titus is still alive and giving results...

[shannon]

Replying to the last paragraph of SSBM above:

The question I have now, is do you think Town Me can avoid being lynched in 5P LYLO? Because if not, you should lynch me now and give the remaining people a chance to find actual scum when LYLO happens. If you think today doesn't matter because you've 'got me in the bag' during 5P, you're wrong, I'm town and lynching me then will lose us the game. I'd rather go today when my town flip can actually be useful in terms of examining the wagons and the shitty arguments made against me. No one will realise they're shitty until I flip.

PS - It's Xmas eve here, I don't have a family thing on tomorrow (yay) but I might still not be around much. If you lynch me overnight my-time I'm OK with that, my claim is VT. I would prefer to spend more time and actually *find scum* but me going now is better than me being treated as an auto-lynch in 5P and losing us the game.

[shannon]

also rask replaced drealmerz, right? titus replaced rabbit?

D7 was night killed, but Titus replaced rabbit.

[shannon]

UNVOTE:

@Titus
why'd you choose to use your GS rather than JK?

I'll be V/LA until Dec. 26

but I have a chance to check in now and then.

With 2+ scum alive, I favor GS in case I got a result and lived.

JK might tell me something, but its a long shot.

Can I ask you to try a hypothetical with your setup spec wagon reading powers?

Let's imagine I've been lynched today and I flip VT, how does that effect your interpretation of the game? What do you see in the wagons on me, and the one around LUV? Does it tell you anything about whether we are more/less likely to have a roleblocker/jailkeeper/ascetic in the game? Does it make you suspicious of any particular player who has had a weird-looking town read on me, when everyone else thought I was scum?

[shannon]

I can quote dead threads for finished games, right?

Town read on Rask because he made this post giving advice to a newbie on scum hunting:

"Well, a really basic tell is, look at who is really trying to figure out the game. Original or fresh insights and deep thinking about the game; scum will often just do what they have to for appearance sake so they can look shallow or flat sometimes"

By his own standard I don't think Rask is shallow or flat, he went and looked up a game with me, Titus, and LUV in it.

(If anyone else cares, it's the dead thread from Newbie 1752 which also has Drone and SSBM in it).
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=68849 > The game thread

[shannon]

I'm reading Drone's posts in the same game and seeing a lot more depth here than there. Drone is a town lean now, if I consider him independently of anything happening with Titus.

In ISOing Drone in our game, though, I want to know how this progression happened, (bold in top post for emphasis of the relevant bit). There's not even a mention of LUV from Drone in between these two posts, besides the intent to hammer.

Titus/Uzi are not lynchable today for me.

(for the clarity; Titus null/towny{ish} - Uzi null/weak scummy
Gerryoat/Rask - Strong town reads.
TTTT/Kyouko - Generally TTTTown leaning
Shannon/Impoetic - Null. I still need more content to sort
Drealm - Null
Sesq - Scummy to very scummy.

VOTE: LUV

[shannon]

I can quote dead threads for finished games, right?

Town read on Rask because he made this post giving advice to a newbie on scum hunting:

"Well, a really basic tell is, look at who is really trying to figure out the game. Original or fresh insights and deep thinking about the game; scum will often just do what they have to for appearance sake so they can look shallow or flat sometimes"

By his own standard I don't think Rask is shallow or flat, he went and looked up a game with me, Titus, and LUV in it.

(If anyone else cares, it's the dead thread from Newbie 1752 which also has Drone and SSBM in it).
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=68849 > The game thread

What makes you think that rask as scum would not play to towntell in the ways they consider towntells? Rask actually pointed out it was a basic tell; it's something that, if you're aware of consciously enough to think of it when bringing up advice to a newbie, you'll mooost likely not fall for yourself as scum.

This isn't me saying I think rask is scum, but the tell he pointed out is actually kind of my problem with some of your posts. And one of his, too, from what I've read. This is one of those posts.

I don't quite get your last sentence there, are you saying that you're scum reading the post I've made about Rask, for the same reason that I think Rask is town?

Anyway, to clarify what I mean about Rask: I think if Rask was to play to his own stated town tells it would be coming across as fake. Like people would know that he's really faking the effort, where he doesn't need to. For instance, there was no reason for him to look deeply (or shallowly) in to the game he did, because all three of me, Titus, and LUV were already under interest and he could've just picked a random reason everyone else had and jumped on that wagon.

The thing about me, I've noticed, is that I have two modes: Super Obv Town (which is always super faked, even if I am actually town), and Genuinely Being Me (which is almost always scum read, even if I'm town). I'm actively trying to tone down the Super Obv Town because it's hard to maintain, but this 'normal' me gets me scum read, so I might have to change that!

I hope that this has been an adequate response?

[shannon]

*snip*

I still have yet to figure out why Titus is claiming no report = guilty. I think I'm clearly missing something there because even as scum I don't see an incentive to say something like that without some excuse.

In the meantime I'd like to know why Kyouko unvoted just then (I initially assumed the quote was an accident but are you unvoting because Drone's on the wagon?) and why Gerry thinks I'm scum, since you (Gerry) asked me a question as if to try to sort me and then chose not to with no explanation.

speaking of which lol why is titus on the wagon with drone

titus do you townread drone now

This part is kind of confusing to me too.

This is how I understand it:

- Despite me having a 'No Movement' N1, Titus thinks I'm part of a scum team. So she's theorised that you and I are a team. (I think this part of the theory originated from a scum read on LUV, so it's weird that it carries on now he's flipped town)
- When this Day started I jumped in and was like WTF why are you alive why aren't you telling us who you targeted, which she took as me trying to somehow defend her target (which she says was you)
- No Result can come as the result of an ascetic, and Titus thinks a town ascetic would be unlikely
-The theory is that either: I roleblocked Titus and prevented her investigating you, or you're an ascetic who can't be subjected to any night action except killing.
- Someone in our supposed team has to be capable of some kind of roleblock *or* a strongman, since Transcend died N1. So there's a variety of role combinations she can fit to the me + you = scum theory.

My problem with all this, in case I haven't stated it enough, is:
1) It doesn't explain why Titus is alive today
2) It is weird that Titus checked for guns on *you* instead of *me* given that she scum read me
3) It is even weirder that Titus didn't jailkeep one of us
4) The 'no result' on you and the 'no movement' on me N1 is more easily explained by the presence of a roleblocker and a scum team that doesn't include me, than by this elaborate theory.

[shannon]

@Impoetic I think you're right, it can't be a two person scum neighbourhood. It's one or the other, and maybe neither

[shannon]

pfffffffffFFFF holy frick I don't get anyone at all

Shannon I was saying that you have made several posts that seemed like they could be trying to look like scumhunting rather than actual scumhunting, for pretty much the reason you quoted from rask, and that the post containing the quote was one of them.

I think if Rask was to play to his own stated town tells it would be coming across as fake.

First of all, was this really what you were saying? Can you please look over this sentence a second time and tell me if it was actually what you were saying when you made the first post about rask being town for that?

Because this is convoluted and I find it hard to swallow that you would have made a post just thinking that reasoning would be assumed. I also think it just sounds like... contrived reasoning.

predit: so if drone is town we get nothing (at least in that alley). Got it. Thanks for clarifying.

I don't really see the point in two mafia claiming a neighborhood if they don't have one though? Like, if one got lynched, the other would be confirmed -- so why is that a possibility?

(Is this the question you were referring to?)

I thought that my intended meaning was implied, but evidently I wasn't clear enough and I need to be more explicit (or more thoughtful/careful/less rushed) when I post.

[shannon]

I find it really strange that Titus finds it so likely that we'd leave alive Titus because one of us is ascetic when it's the other one that Titus actually SRs, and even if that weren't the case, roleblocker just seems more likely from Titus's pov? Otherwise, why not just eliminate both PRs instantly and have 2 mafia vs a bunch of VTs? i mean i see the reason not to now but it doesn't seem as strong as the reason if there's a roleblocker and "I'm treating this as a guilty on the subject" doesn't make any sense to me

also where did the SR on drone go seriously

@titus

That's exactly the thing that makes no sense to me. If Titus scum reads me, why does she not investigate *me*? Better to get one scum straight off the bat by finding a gun on them, than to investigate someone else and try to interpret *that* result?

The only thing that makes sense to me is that Titus is scum herself and knows that she's not going to find anything, so she has to make up a result (or a non result) on someone else. That way, if she gets me lynched she's got an excuse for my town flip. And if she gets Impoetic lynched, she's got an excuse for that town flip too (she can call roleblock instead of ascetic).

[shannon]

VOTE: Titus

[shannon]

Sorry I've not been here much, I fell ill yesterday and posting properly just seemed too hard. I'll be back tonight with a proper response for Rask.

Welcome, Shadonra. I like your entrance.

Can you tell me more about your read on SSBM? Now that you've pointed it out I feel like that's one player who has been at the centre of things but who no-one has really bothered to look at.

[shannon]

There's a reason I didn't actually vote, let's put it that way. I wanted to see whether my expressed intention to vote would derail the wagon, given that lots of folks have a scum read on me.

Okay, so did it? What's your analysis here?

I am starting with this question because it's a relatively simple one, and because I don't think I'm going to get to all of them, frankly.

The reason I haven't said anything is because the wagon hasn't gone away. I was hoping to see some more voting action. So far, TTTT unvoted Impoetic, Gerry put her back at L-1. SSBM unvoted, then later TTTT put her back at L-1.

Through this, Titus and Drone have both remained on Impoetic.

Like lots of other players, I've been focused on Titus and Drone and trying to sort them out. I'm not sure whether this is even possible, TBH.

I've got two theories in mind at the moment, both of which are potentially ridiculous. So I'll start with reads: SSBM, Impoetic, and you, I think are all town. I'm not sure about Sesq, TTTT, and Gerry, I guess I'm neutral on them. Slightly towny feel about TTTT because of the interaction with NewImpoetic. I think one of Titus and Drone is scum.

So, the theory part:

If one of Titus and Drone is scum, I suspect that the strategy will be for the scum one to subtly sheep the other, so that we can't get a clear read on the pair of them and by the time we've lynched it'll be too late. I don't know what, if anything, to do about this.

The particularly crazy part -

*If* - and I think it's a big if - Titus and Drone are both shown to be town, then I think the team is SSBM + Someone who has been relatively under the radar. I think SSBM has been directing traffic, so to speak, toward a few candidates all game. Her focus has been on sorting Titus and Drone, sorting me and LUV, and on Impoetic. And while I see this as towny overall, if both Titus and Drone are town, and given a town read on Impoetic, I left with SSBM by POE. (To be clear - I don't think that any combo of just Gerry/TTTT/Sesq makes sense as a scum team).

[shannon]

The thing about me, I've noticed, is that I have two modes: Super Obv Town (which is always super faked, even if I am actually town), and Genuinely Being Me (which is almost always scum read, even if I'm town). I'm actively trying to tone down the Super Obv Town because it's hard to maintain, but this 'normal' me gets me scum read, so I might have to change that!

I hope that this has been an adequate response?

What it boils down to is even though you're here and posting a lot I just don't see much independent drive from you. Like you have "unique" opinions but I feel like you push it so little it's hard to believe you aren't just going with the flow. You say it's indecision and uncertainty but I don't really see you trying to clarify it either? I feel like you exert so little influence onto the game if that makes sense, like about the same as the straight-up lurkers but while being here and posting...

If I push things little it's because I'm not committed to a single course of action, I'm still trying to work things out. There's also the case that I *can't* push things effectively because of the scum read that's been on me so long. (Like if I'd really tried to push to save LUV, how would that have looked in the circumstance?). I will take your feedback on board.

[shannon]

Alright, if everyone insists that Titus and Drone must both be town because of setup reasons, then here's my cray POE:

VOTE: SSBM

I'm going to take today to re-read the game with Scum SSBM in mind and I'll be back with evidence tonight.

If I don't find that evidence, well, I'll unvote, and go with the majority I guess.

[shannon]

If I push things little it's because I'm not committed to a single course of action, I'm still trying to work things out. There's also the case that I *can't* push things effectively because of the scum read that's been on me so long. (Like if I'd really tried to push to save LUV, how would that have looked in the circumstance?). I will take your feedback on board.

zzzzzzzz

Idk if shannon's hardcore appeasing me or not here... I hate it when people act nice to me when I push them.

Sorry, I didn't mean to annoy you x

[shannon]

Need everyone on the impoetic/shadonra wagon's comment on shadonra, only TTTT's really said anything there. Gerryoat popped in but didn't mention it.

Really have to start closing the day out now. I still think shannon's probably the best lynch here, if not her then maybe drone, but it's annoying this has taken too long and I've started second guessing... I'm not 100% either shadonra's town (more like 70?) but there's the chance it's like another LUV lynch where it tells us literally nothing because of how uninvolved impoetic was.

The LUV lynch *did* tell us stuff, though.

It told you all that his result on me was accurate, that I didn't do the N1 kill.
It also told you that the main reason for wanting to lynch him, i.e. that his claim didn't jibe well with Titus', was BS.

If Titus is town (via the 'neighbours are always town in this setup' generalisation) ((This is where I suspend my disbelief)), that makes Drone town also. Yay, we've got two conf townies!

If Titus is town then she really did get 'no result' on Impoettic. I think that if Titus is willing to suspend *her* disbelief about my alignment and not jump to far-fetched conclusions about me and Impoetic having weird role combos, we end up with something plausible. Titus, Drone, Impoetic/Shad, and me are all town. (I want to add you to this too, Rask).

The PR has been roleblocked both N1 and N2. For whatever reason, Titus was left alive in favour of D7. Let's put this down to WIFOM. So, scum is within SSBM, TTTT, Gerry, and Sesq. My *guess* as to why D7 was killed is that it allowed SSBM to make small talk about mourning her town block and having to try to recruit some of us to the new one. I'll have to read back to see whether I remember that right.

PS - If you lynch me all you'll know is that LUV's result on me was true, which you already know. We won't be any closer to narrowing down the scum pool. If you lynch Drone, well, maybe we strike it lucky and get the only neighbours (apparently ever?) to have one scum and one town. But more likely, we don't learn anything, and we still don't know squat about Titus. I think we need to look elsewhere.

[shannon]

Nuh OK I'm re-reading and I just can't see SSBM as scum. It's gotta be Titus. I think this is the one game in apparently ever that has a neighbourhood that's 50/50.

Question - If Titus is scum, does this make sense of N1? Would a 1 shot scum roleblocker (or I guess a 2 shot but they didn't use their shot last night on the right person), plus JOAT (no backup) and 2 Shot Follower be balanced-ish?

Here's the quotes that got me thinking...

Well there goes my other townread. Only one nightkill again I'm starting to wonder if we even have a vig. Titus what did you do last night and who did you target?

(I tried to scumread this post above but I couldn't. This exchange just really cemented it for me).

Gs no result, did not say which action

I am inclined to think my target is ascetic

I got no result on my gs check. I am treating this as a guilty on the target. Result at midday.

Also how can no result be treated as a guilty? Just curious what the logic is even if it's moonlogic

That seems like an odd conclusion for what's confirmed in this setup

Do you have any reason to believe your target is ascetic rather than you got roleblocked?

That seems like an odd conclusion for what's confirmed in this setup

Limited shot investigatives, plus scum strongman (which is the theory we went with yesterday), suggests no RB.

What about scum JOAT with 1xRB 1xNinja and 1xStrongman to balance town JOAT?

What about scum JOAT with 1xRB 1xNinja and 1xStrongman to balance town JOAT?

Possible.

Like I think there's no way they're both town. It's possible they're really neighbors but I can't see them both being town. They're also the only players to simultaneously vote me the whole game if I'm not mistaken which makes me think the neighborhood might be real but that maybe they're not both scum and it's only one of them. A game just finished that I caught scum!Drone in (my first Newbie, lasted like 6 weeks ) so I can finally talk about it but I'd need to read him closer and see what I think of him there compared to now. Raskol was in that game too but she got killed N1 for being obvtown

All the bold stuff here still stands:

Ssm, please hand over your dunce cap. Shannon is scum with the target of my check.

Soooo let me get this straight:

You scum read me, and think LUV was faking a result on me. He flips town which verifies his result, but you *don't* check me for a gun, you check someone else. You get no result on them, but then claim that I'm scum *with* that person?

Oh so I'm Ascetic and shannon is the 3rd scum.

So the plan was to wait for someone to bite when you didn't give out the name, later conveniently say that you targeted that player, then claim shannon is the 3rd scum

.

And you also think that from a balance standpoint that it makes sense to have an Ascetic scum in the same game as a Follower? What is the point of the Follower in such a setup?

Now you're saying that an Ascetic did the kill which means it's probably not a strongman unless you also thing a strongman ascetic would be balanced, so you think it's a roleblocker I assume? This is rich.

VOTE: Titus

[shannon]

hmm. I'm really getting turned off by all these other wagons we've explored today, specifically shannon's and Impoetic/shadonra's. If we're not lynching Drone I'll still do Titus by deadline but I'd rather check on the validity of the neighborhood claim by lynching the one that doesn't claim to have a JK shot left in them. I believe both players have confirmed that they both started the game in the neighborhood, which means that mafia neighborizer isn't a possibility here. Will go back and check on what they said when I asked them about it, and will look at some timestamps as well to confirm, but pretty sure there's not a neighborizer. Would also lynch Gerry today as a third choice, but not above one of the "neighbors".

People should lynch Drone though, rabbit was pretty towny and if drone flips scum we can always do titus tomorrow. We already lynched a claimed PR once this game, lets not do that again

You were pretty happy to lynch LUV, and there's this post you made about Titus earlier...

Actually nevermind, if there is a roleblocker that is even 1-shot they could have blocked Transcend and killed him last night, and it would be a good plan if Mafia has a roleblocker to block Transcend and kill him because they know he is a good player with a PR that was part of the townblock. Universal Backup is a convenient claim post-flip that would make us want to let Titus live longer because we would now think she has Transcend's remaining powers. Her push on TTTT D1 was an attempt to start a different cw to rb because the Gerry wagon wasn't taking off. If Titus flips scum it's possible Raskol or Drone were the scum trying to counter rb's wagon, or that Gerry is scum and she had to make a completely new wagon to counter all this. More likely Gerry is town in this case because Titus was throwing shade at Gerry early D2 for assuming that it was a strongman that killed Transcend.

VOTE: Titus

[shannon]

I was happy and wrong to lynch LUV. Titus is still claimed PR and has a chance to block tonight's kill if she's town. If she's scum, It's very likely her partner is Drone and they're faking neighbors. What are you trying to say with that post anyways? That I should ignore the consequences of lynching LUV and go on to mindlessly lynch another PR without considering flips?

I'm saying it's awfully convenient for you to be taking this stance now.

Yes, Town Titus could potentially stop a night kill. I know you don't like me saying 'what are the chances', but to do this she'd need to target either the killer or the target, which is pretty low odds. And there'd also need *not* to be a strongman, which we were speculating about back on D1 when Transcend died despite activating BP.

Let's do a hypothetical:

Titus jails me, and there's still a kill. What does that achieve, in terms of useful info? Nada. The explanations are:

1) Scum has a strongman
2) Titus got it wrong
3) Titus is actually scum

And we have all these explanations available at the moment.

Now, let's say Titus claims to jail me, and there's *no* kill. Are you betting on Titus being scum, or betting on me being scum? What if we're both town and scum tried to kill me but failed?

Letting Titus lives gives us 0 information at this point. Given the history of her claim, how it was used as justification for lynching LUV, and the 'no result' fiasco, there's no reason to let her live.

[shannon]

Who exactly is rushing to save the Imp/shad slot?

Shannon, SSM, Drone

And I as well, at a slight pace.

You confuse me. It looks like you take random wagons every day and just funnel onto them. It seems too erratic to be planned, but VOTE: Titus

One or two people not wanting a wagon might be suspicious, but four of us I would say is not so.

Happy New Year, by the way.

[shannon]

Two days until deadline, with several people VLA

[shannon]

Look someone needs to move if we're going to get a lynch. I'm prepared to do it, but I want an answer to this first:

What is the point of a two-person neighbourhood if both people in it are *always* town? What makes it different from a masonry, but for the lack of formal confirmation of the other's alignment? (What I mean is: Why would you choose neighbours instead of masons, if neighbours are always town too?)

Greens below are what the wagons look like from my perspective right now, if I follow you all and say T+D are both town. I think Gerry and TTTT are not a team, so I'm wrong someplace. Gut says Titus scum; head says that Drone is probably a better choice if we *really have to* lynch in that pair and in case I'm wrong about Titus.

The only people I 100% won't compromise on to are Rask and Sesq. I 90% won't go SSBM, I have null reads on TTTT and Gerry.

UNVOTE: to show genuine intend to change if reasoned with.

Putting all of the above out there in case I'm lynched or NKed, it's Sunday evening here so the Day could plausibly end while I sleep tonight.

VC 3.12

shadonra (3)

:

Titus, Drone,

gerryoat

-- L-2!

Titus (3)

:

shannon

, TTTT,

Sesq

-- L-2!

shannon (2)

:

Raskolnikov,

shadonra

Drone (1)

:

ssbm_Kyouko

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-01-03 16:47:00)

[shannon]

Especially you Shannon.
I think there's a good chance Gerryoat is scum.

2549

I saw that post too and went that's what prompted me to re-think.

I already unvoted but I'll put the name in it just to be sure. UNVOTE: Titus

[shannon]

Oh and Kyouko.
If you're scum, good job.
If you're town, stop tunneling.

I'd ask Rask to do this too. Take me out of the equation, who is your focus now?

[shannon]

TL;DR of pool so far
Drone wants TTTT, Gerryoat or Kyouko
Rask wants Drone, Shannon, TTTT
Shad wants Gerry, not Kyouko, not TTTT
Shannon wants TTTT, Gerry, not Sesq or Rask

It looks like we can compromise to TTTT?

VOTE: TTTT

This vote comes in the morning for me, I'll be back in the evening and tomorrow morning. I won't let the day go with a no lynch if it's up to me.

[shannon]

If you're in the spirit of compromise why start a new wagon instead of hopping on e.g. drone?

As far as we can tell, both the neighbours are town.

If we're working on a premise that one of them could plausibly *not* be town, my money would be on Titus.

[shannon]

Look someone needs to move if we're going to get a lynch. I'm prepared to do it, but I want an answer to this first:

What is the point of a two-person neighbourhood if both people in it are *always* town? What makes it different from a masonry, but for the lack of formal confirmation of the other's alignment? (What I mean is: Why would you choose neighbours instead of masons, if neighbours are always town too?)

Greens below are what the wagons look like from my perspective right now, if I follow you all and say T+D are both town. I think Gerry and TTTT are not a team, so I'm wrong someplace. Gut says Titus scum; head says that Drone is probably a better choice if we *really have to* lynch in that pair and in case I'm wrong about Titus.

The only people I 100% won't compromise on to are Rask and Sesq. I 90% won't go SSBM, I have null reads on TTTT and Gerry.

UNVOTE: to show genuine intend to change if reasoned with.

Putting all of the above out there in case I'm lynched or NKed, it's Sunday evening here so the Day could plausibly end while I sleep tonight.

If you are nullish on both Gerry and TTTT, why are you willing to lynch TTTT now and not Gerry?

We could also do Gerry, sure. I had to vote someplace, if I'd voted Gerry you'd be asking why not TTTT

[shannon]

That's OK

[shannon]

Fuck these compromise wagons. I am willing to lynch half the game and my scumreads are trying to lynch TTT and gerry now. No.

1)Imp Slot
2)Shannon
3)Drone
4)SSM/Sesq
5)No lynch, go fuck yourself

I do not understand a world in which you prefer to lynch SSBM or Sesq over a no lynch.

I also do not understand why you would prefer to lynch these two over Gerry and TTTT.

Your whole read is basically that Impoetic gave no result and I got annoyed with you for withholding your result. And you don't like how I look at game mechanics instead of relying solely on play. That's not a case.

Or rather, it's as much a case for me being impatient (and how could I have known you'd investigate Impoetic, if we were a team?) and there being a roleblocker somewhere, as it is for me and Impoetic being some kind of ascetic/roleblocker/ninja/strongman combo team. Seriously. Let it go. Look at things from another perspective.

[shannon]

Priorities
1) Drone - scummy ties to Kohai, ditched rb wagon when it hit L-1, was not on final rb wagon, was on final LUV wagon. Artificial looking interactions with Titus slot
2) Titus - strictly a worse choice than Drone due to claims, not playing to her strengths of VCA, coming to bad conclusions about setup (assumes Ascetic in a setup with a Follower, disregards mod meta)
3) Gerry - low contribution, replaced a scummy slot, slot had ties to Drone, my top SR. Titus attempted to make a wagon on TTTT D1 during the rb wagon, could be Gerry was also scum and Titus needed to make a new wagon because the existing wagons were both on scum
4) shadonra - purely for Impoetic slot, would be a compromise b/c No Lynch sucks. Won't vote this except to hammer and won't hammer if I don't like the wagon

So

Drone + Gerry
Titus + maybe Gerry
Shad but just because of Impoetic?

[shannon]

Update:

Drone wants TTTT, Gerryoat or Kyouko
Rask wants Drone, Shannon, TTTT
Shad wants Gerry, not Kyouko, not TTTT
Shannon wants TTTT, Gerry, not Sesq or Rask
Titus wants Shad, Shannon, Drone, Kyouko, or Sesq and will 100% not go Gerry
Kyouko wants Drone, Titus, Gerry, Shad
TTTT doesn't say except we're not lynching Shannon; has no concerns about Shad/Impoetic lynch except Titus is pushing it


- Titus has claim protection
- Shad has 'no one trusts Titus' result' protection
- I have ... I don't know what kind of protection, but for some reason my wagon has fallen away
- SSBM, Rask, Sesq are pretty universal town reads excepting Titus


@Drone if you don't want to be lynched today you probably should point out the SSBM tunnel posts


(BUT - - - Isn't someone sure both neighbours are town?! This is the bit that I get stuck on with Drone)

[shannon]

Reading SSBM again, here's what I see:

He has either being going heavy in to the post history of Transcend, or he's an alt.

Spoiler:

rabbit - Yeah we disagree on that then.

With my knowledge of Transcend, it does not look productive to try to engage him in the way you did. He can be engaged, but if you try to do it directly you won't get anywhere most of the time. You're right about you not knowing Transcends playstyle being a justification for posting those things, that's why I'm leaning town on you now

after

you figured Trans out a bit and "started doing things that actually made sense as a town player."

Getting to you drone

Rabbit - There are easier scum to catch D1 than scum!Trans. Better to find someone more obvious because town!Trans is good at catching scum, and Trans plays similarly both alignments, especially early

U GUYS

KYO IS OBV TOWN

STAHP

link me a town game of kyoukos and ill consider believing you

still waiting on this btw

None of my games on this site are completed so I don't think I can link you an ongoing wherein I was lynched as town. If I can I will, I think it's against the site rules though

Here's an interesting bit, and I've made up a story to go along with it. See the bold parts.

I'm most curious about the suggestion to lynch drealmerz. I get why you'd think at least one of me and Transcend are scum and I follow the claim that Sesq's vote is opportunistic (because it is, but that doesn't make her scummy in this gamestate) but the consensus right now seems to be to find the scummiest scum out of TTTT's scumpool from 441 and rope them.

I'm pretty sure I'm TRing a scum rn but I think there are 2 scum in TTTT's pool + shannon so I like my chances better in there, especially when I'm seeing team associations between you and LUV and between LUV and shannon and maybe even between you and shannon I'd have to reread my notes and maybe the thread.

Sesq voting is getting you to talk so we can figure out if you're scum or if you just aren't showing you're town yet.

^This is to RB

Titus -

TTTT wanting a rivaling Gerry wagon looked like a way to try to get better data for VC analysis once one or the other flipped. There are 2 people voting Gerry rn. TTTT and ironstove. ironstove was the one who originally came up with the meta case on rb that got people voting him, but now ironstove is nowhere to be found on the wagon. If Gerry's wagon is scum-driven, do you think TTTT or ironstove are more likely to be scum for being on it?

TTTT is town. (That meta case on RB I had forgotten about). Gerry is scum.

PEdit: Was all set to vote Gerry but caught SSBM's post.

VOTE: Drone

[shannon]

Shannon, that vote is dumb. You should be ashamed.

I am adding this to my wall of quotes

[shannon]

There's no point to vote Kyouko.
No one would join me.

I am alone on confscum and SSM is giving buddy tells. We have 1 day. I would join, reluctantly.

As I said earlier, if the two of you are town then POE leads me to SSBM. I just can't find the scum tells in his posts.

[shannon]

Fuck these compromise wagons. I am willing to lynch half the game and my scumreads are trying to lynch TTT and gerry now. No.

1)Imp Slot
2)Shannon
3)Drone
4)SSM/Sesq
5)No lynch, go fuck yourself

If scum fake the hood it's sort of like faking masons only you can't be UB JOAT if you're a mason. Gives you 2 a reason not to vote each other if you've been having private discussions in the hood that lead you to TR each other

Thank you this is the answer I wanted fifty years ago when I asked why you'd put neighbours in a game instead of masons if neighbours are always town.

[shannon]

Oh Shannon. You just ruined my moment..

Sorry.

How is this for recompense:

VOTE: SSBM L-2

[shannon]

This bit in bold is why we're lynching SSBM. Add Sesq to the town list, by the way.

Need everyone on the impoetic/shadonra wagon's comment on shadonra, only TTTT's really said anything there. Gerryoat popped in but didn't mention it.

Really have to start closing the day out now. I still think shannon's probably the best lynch here, if not her then maybe drone, but it's annoying this has taken too long and I've started second guessing... I'm not 100% either shadonra's town (more like 70?) but there's the chance it's like another LUV lynch where it tells us literally nothing because of how uninvolved impoetic was.

The LUV lynch *did* tell us stuff, though.

It told you all that his result on me was accurate, that I didn't do the N1 kill.
It also told you that the main reason for wanting to lynch him, i.e. that his claim didn't jibe well with Titus', was BS.

If Titus is town (via the 'neighbours are always town in this setup' generalisation) ((This is where I suspend my disbelief)), that makes Drone town also. Yay, we've got two conf townies!

If Titus is town then she really did get 'no result' on Impoettic.

I think that if Titus is willing to suspend *her* disbelief about my alignment and not jump to far-fetched conclusions about me and Impoetic having weird role combos, we end up with something plausible. Titus, Drone, Impoetic/Shad, and me are all town. (I want to add you to this too, Rask).

The PR has been roleblocked both N1 and N2. For whatever reason, Titus was left alive in favour of D7. Let's put this down to WIFOM. So, scum is within SSBM, TTTT, Gerry, and Sesq. My *guess* as to why D7 was killed is that it allowed SSBM to make small talk about mourning her town block and having to try to recruit some of us to the new one. I'll have to read back to see whether I remember that right.

PS -

If you lynch me all you'll know is that LUV's result on me was true, which you already know. We won't be any closer to narrowing down the scum pool. If you lynch Drone, well, maybe we strike it lucky and get the only neighbours (apparently ever?) to have one scum and one town. But more likely, we don't learn anything, and we still don't know squat about Titus. I think we need to look elsewhere.

[shannon]

I do not understand how Titus's no-result on me clears me for town. The argument given here for why ssbm is scum is one of the weakest I've ever seen. I am extremely not understanding why we are not lynching you today.

I'm not going to give you fake reasons to lynch me!

[shannon]

I do not understand how Titus's no-result on me clears me for town. The argument given here for why ssbm is scum is one of the weakest I've ever seen. I am extremely not understanding why we are not lynching you today.

I'm not going to give you fake reasons to lynch me!

Wait so you explaining why you want to lynch me, or you explaining how Titus's no-result clears Shadonra for town, would just be a fake reason to lynch you? If you're not willing to explain either of those, can you explain why you think those explanations would be fake reasons to lynch you?

My comment was in response to the last sentence - "I am extremely not understanding why we are not lynching you today." My response is that I am not going to give her a fake reason to lynch me.

Regarding the other points -

Titus's no result on Shad doesn't clear Shad for town. It doesn't mean anything, except that if Titus is town she targeted Shad, and she didn't get a result.

As for the argument about why we're voting you, well, my gut tells me yes. I look through your ISO and see town, with flashes that could be scummy - the same I've seen in my own scum games, particularly one where I was super duper town read. I am fighting a battle between reason and feeling here, and feeling is winning.

[shannon]

You guys are gonna feel real silly when you lynch the last of the town block and give scum free reign over their NK, just saying. If this goes through, one of Titus/Drone tomorrow.
*snip*

What town block is that supposed to be?

You're going to have to walk me through how that question is shading, and how you're not suspicious at all of shannon's sudden turn on me

It's not sudden. As I posted much, much earlier, if Titus and Drone and town that makes you gut-read scum to me for steering the game as you have.

Okay.
Drealm flipped town and read me town.
So did Transcend, and Uzi (was he?) .
What's next?

For reference, here's Uzi's last posts:

Sesq

, I trust you the most so my final reads are

Town: Kyouko, Shannon, and TTTT
Null: Rask, Impoetic
Null Scum: Drone, Gerry
Scum: D7, Titus

Please sheep them and lead the town to victory.

Drone I don't like your appeal to authority there. For one, it's wrong, Uzi scum read you, not town read you. For two, dead townies don't have magical powers: Uzi scum read D7, who was night killed that night.

Hm. The fact that I haven't been hammered yet probably means scum is already on my wagon.

This is a good point - let's look at Uzi's wagons. I don't know what to say for them, exactly, except there's a lot of shuffling around until Drone eventually joins it. I think he might be right that scum were already there, but I'd like other opinions. Sesq? Rask?

VC 2.18

Lil Uzi Vert (5)

: TTTT, gerryoat, ssbm_Kyouko,

drealmerz7

, Titus

-- L-1!

shannon (1)

: Raskolnikov

Drone (1)

: shannon

Raskolnikov (1)

: Sesq

Sesq (1)

: Drone

Titus (1)

: Lil Uzi Vert

NOT VOTING (1)

: Impoetic

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

VC 2.19

Lil Uzi Vert (5)

: TTTT, gerryoat,

drealmerz7

, Titus, ssbm_Kyouko

-- L-1!

shannon (1)

: Raskolnikov

Drone (1)

: shannon

Raskolnikov (1)

: Sesq

Sesq (1)

: Drone

Titus (1)

: Lil Uzi Vert

NOT VOTING (1)

: Impoetic

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

VC 2.20 (FINAL)

Lil Uzi Vert (6)

: TTTT, gerryoat,

drealmerz7

, Titus, ssbm_Kyouko, Drone

-- LYNCH!

shannon (1)

: Raskolnikov

Drone (1)

: shannon

Titus (1)

: Lil Uzi Vert

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic, Sesq

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

Flip incoming.

[shannon]

RB's wagons for comparison. Again, I'm going to leave it to someone else to commentate on wagon analysis, what I'm most interested in is what happens early D2.

VC 1.18

rb (4)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7

, Drone, ssbm_Kyouko

ironstove (1)

: gerryoat

gerryoat (1)

: TTTT

drealmerz7 (1)

:

Lil Uzi Vert

Sesq (1)

:

rb

Transcend (1)

: ironstove

ssbm_Kyouko (1)

: iamafluffyrabbit

NOT VOTING (3)

: Impoetic, shannon, Sesq

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

I ate 14 jam drops yesterday and now I have none. =(

iamafluffyrabbit is V/LA until the 2nd.

VC 1.19

rb (5)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7,

Drone, ssbm_Kyouko,

Lil Uzi Vert

-- L-2!

ironstove (1)

: gerryoat

gerryoat (1)

: TTTT

Sesq (1)

:

rb

Transcend (1)

: ironstove

ssbm_Kyouko (1)

: iamafluffyrabbit

NOT VOTING (3)

: Impoetic, shannon, Sesq

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

iamafluffyrabbit is V/LA until the 2nd.

VC 1.20

rb (6)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7,

Drone, ssbm_Kyouko,

Lil Uzi Vert

, Sesq

-- L-1!

gerryoat (2)

: TTTT, ironstove

Drone (1)

: gerryoat

Sesq (1)

:

rb

ssbm_Kyouko (1)

: iamafluffyrabbit

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic, shannon

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

iamafluffyrabbit is V/LA until the 2nd.

VC 1.22

rb (5)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7,

Drone, ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq

-- L-2!

gerryoat (3)

: TTTT, ironstove, iamafluffyrabbit

Transcend (1)

: shannon

Drone (1)

: gerryoat

Sesq (1)

:

rb

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic,

Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

iamafluffyrabbit is V/LA until the 2nd.

VC 1.24

rb (4)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7,

ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq

gerryoat (3)

: TTTT, ironstove, iamafluffyrabbit

drealmerz7 (1)

: Drone

Transcend (1)

: shannon

Drone (1)

: gerryoat

Sesq (1)

:

rb

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic,

Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

iamafluffyrabbit is V/LA until the 2nd.

Impoetic is V/LA until the 4th.

VC 1.26

rb (5)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7,

ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq, gerryoat

-- L-2!

gerryoat (3)

: TTTT, ironstove, iamafluffyrabbit

Transcend (1)

: shannon

Sesq (1)

:

rb

NOT VOTING (3)

: Impoetic,

Lil Uzi Vert,

Drone

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

iamafluffyrabbit has requested replacement.

Impoetic is V/LA until the 4th.

VC 1.30

rb (5)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7,

ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq, gerryoat

-- L-2!

gerryoat (3)

: TTTT, ironstove, Drone

TTTT (1)

: Titus

Transcend (1)

: shannon

Sesq (1)

:

rb

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic,

Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

Impoetic is V/LA until the 4th.

VC 1.32

rb (6)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7,

ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq, gerryoat, ironstove

-- L-1!

gerryoat (2)

: TTTT, Drone

TTTT (1)

: Titus

Transcend (1)

: shannon

Sesq (1)

:

rb

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic,

Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

Someone please bring me coffee. I'll love you forever.

VC 1.34 (FINAL)

rb (7)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7,

ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq, gerryoat, ironstove, TTTT

-- LYNCH!

gerryoat (1)

: Drone

Lil Uzi Vert (1)

: Titus

Transcend (1)

: shannon

Sesq (1)

:

rb

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic,

Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

Flip incoming.

[shannon]

OK reading D2 pretty sure Gerry is scum.

1401 is role fishing.
1468 is throwing shade on a PR claim.
1474 throws more shade and asks for a counter claim in order to lynch LUV. (Titus conveniently provides one, but I think Titus' post 1467 was the key here, Gerry picked up on the implication of Titus' question).
1484 he comes out and fully goes for LUV.
and in 1499 he pushes it even further.

Impoetic also looks bad in what I've quoted.

SSBM I'd like to know what you were theorising in 1441, if you can remember.

VOTE: Gerry

Spoiler:

Well he was obvious town. I'm guessing he used his BP shot, but mafia has a strongman it seems like.

Well he was obvious town. I'm guessing he used his BP shot, but mafia has a strongman it seems like.

Why would you guess that?

I'm going to wait for Gerry here. I second TTTTs opinion, town should wait for Gerry to put something out there. There a reason I'm not on LUV yet but I'm not going to give Gerry anything to latch onto from me

well hey that was obvious and cool

What is "that"?

Okay wait I don't think I ever absorbed who D7 was. Sorry for the dumb question, but who is that? Or do you mean like, when it hits 7 people or something? :s

predit: sorry oops, that was unclear. Transcend was obvious town and an obvious kill (in reference to the flip) and cool as in we lynched mafia. I only checked transcend's actual role after people brought it up so i didn't see he was a JOAT immediately.

actually i'm not entirely sure what the obvious was directed at it might not have been transcend given my next sentence

i assume i said it on autopilot. I didn't really remember anything about RB, and though i thought his reaction was bad, titus resisting it made me pretty indifferent to that lynch, so i would hope i wasn't referring to that.

As far as LUV goes part of my thoughts on him involve a PR theory and it's too early to discuss that today imo. Its also an assumption about the setup and would point fingers at potential town PRs so I will not discuss this part of my theory until those potential PRs claim naturally. I still stand by the team associations I've been talking about for a while, but I'm not sure if I ever quoted them and I'm also not sure if it was more of a mutual thing or if it was rb trying to make LUV look like LUV was a scum buddy. If it was the latter it would be a ploy to take a town with him but LUVs actions towards the end of the rb wagon look like a panicked scum. I think he ditched the wagon because he thought that one of the counter wagons was going to gain traction, but it never did. I'm surprised he didn't hammer rb to try to gain some points back though. I'm going to be focused on another game first tonight but I may bring up a case on LUV and where he's associated with rb if it's not already in my ISO after that game.

Gerry's activity is disappointing but in my limited experience this is his town game. I don't tr him though because I don't know his scum game and they may be similar, and his low activity is not pro-town. I also don't place much stock in secondhand meta in general and that's most of my Gerry experience.

I dislike his scumreads because one of them was pushing a counter wagon to scum on the other yesterday, and the other is one of my own top TRs. His fos on that player (TTTT) also looks somewhat retaliatory.

My reads are all messed up right now but I'm pretty confident in Kyouko, Sesq, and Shannon for town.

Explain, please.

I like a lot of the effort that Kyouko is putting in to solving the game. It could be faked but I don't get that from him. He seems to be considering every and any angle, investigating and reevaluating as much as he can, and following up with actual cases that force everyone to engage with him and the game itself.

You still read quite new to me and I don't see any scum intent in your posts.

I've been informed that Shannon didn't go anywhere last night and while that doesn't confirm anything, it makes me a feel whole lot better about my meta read on her.

^ To clarify, it is not passive and required manual activation, as per the wording in the role.

Could the bp be roleblocked?

Why would they roleblock and kill the same person, that's dumb. I don't understand why it's so hard to believe they might have strongman.

if someone else is an investigation role, I say we lynch LUV cause I don't see 2 inv roles for town this game.

Calling BS on having a 1 shot Tracker when we already have a Joat. Also you didn't need to even claim, you only claimed so a lynch wouldnt form on you after he flipped scum.

VOTE: Lil Uzi Vert

@Titus
play a game with me?
imagine you are scum with LUV
for [reasons] you agree in the PT that he should fakeclaim to avoid a lynch today.
What role do you advise LUV should fakeclaim given what is known about the game at this point?

I'm assuming it wouldn't be 1-shot tracker, given there is a flipped JOAT, right?

@Titus, TTTT, and the rest of the final 6 voting rb with me - What do you guys think about ironstove and drone voting for gerry yesterday with TTTT? We know rb is scum so since the Gerry wagon was the next-largest there was probably a scum trying to counterwagon him there.

I have mixed feelings on this.
on the one hand, maybe they thought the gerry-wagon had a chance
on the other, I kinda find it worse that LUV jumped off the rb wagon and stayed off the counter-wagon, like he knew rb would flip scum and that then the counter-wagon would look bad.
there's no doubt I was baiting scum to push a counter-wagon in the event rb was scum.
at the time I thought the lack of momentum on gerry indicated he was scum, too
but it was pretty obvious what I was doing (at least to scum who knows my alignment) so it seems just as likely that they just stayed off both wagons or bused rb.
all ^this to say... I dunno.

No one wants to lynch D7/Impoetic so I'm forced to compromise.

why did you not track one of your 2 scumreads?You scumread them so much that you felt that you'd have to 'compromise' to vote someone else. @Lil Uzi Vert

[shannon]

You know that me not voting rb was what sparked the neighbourhood force outing?
Remember how Kyouko did when Titus headbutted me?

Sorry no I don't remember. Anyway, move on, I think Gerry is a better option. Just looking at that D2 play and the way he got rid of LUV after LUV claimed a PR ... Shifty AF

[shannon]

Can anyone vote Gerry with me? Or do I need to move?

I *think* we've got about eight hours left

[shannon]

Updated vote count - Mod might be ZZZzzzZZZ as it's 07:00 here in Perth

VC 3.14

ssbm_Kyouko (2)

: Drone, Titus

Drone (1)

: ssbm_Kyouko,

Titus (2)

: TTTT Sesq

gerryoat (2)

: shadonra Shannon

shadonra (1)

: gerryoat
TTTT (1): Rask

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-01-03 16:47:00)

gerryoat is V/LA til the 7th.

[shannon]

VOTE: SSBM all aboard, this is the lynch

[shannon]

VOTE: shannon

I'm totally not interested in lynching ssbm and having titus scumread me tomorrow, too. No. If you agree with titus, lynch me instead so we can get rid of this stupid tunnel. I'll self-hammer if you get me to L-1.

If you're town this is so far against wincon it's not funny

[shannon]

SSBM, I think you should stop trying to lynch the neighbors today. If they're in LYLO we should consider lynching them, but until then I think we should make scum shoot there. Get on shannon.

Why would scum shoot there instead of elsewhere, though?

[shannon]

Yeah that is pretty clearly not L-1, why pretend it was?

[shannon]

It couldn't have been a typo?

I'm still feeling really dissatisfied with this day today. I feel better with a Titus lynch than an SSBM lynch, and we are running out of time. I feel very uncomfortable doing this but... oh wait I'm already voting titus. Ok. SSBM just seems to be really weird out-there town, while titus is having weird pushes and logic and it feels incredibly inorganic.

Fuck. OK, we are really close to the end of the day and we're heading for a no-lynch, which is the worst outcome I think. (I want it noted that I often ask whether no lynching is a good strategy and am always shot down for it).

I am going to shamelessly sheep Sesq on to Titus, because Sesq has been my town read since forever. I'd be more comfortable with the SSBM wagon if Titus wasn't on it, to be frank. I'd be more comfortable with the Titus wagon without SSBM on it. Yet, here we are.

The reason I'm happy to vote a PR today is that 1) I don't believe Titus really is a PR, and 2) if she is, I can't trust her result because of 1), and 3), there might not even be a result due to a roleblocker/ninja/strongman/ascetic/whatever.

VOTE: Titus

L-1

[shannon]

Err, sorry, that's actually L-2, I missed SSBM's change of vote

[shannon]

If Sesq or Rask would like to let me know which wagon they think they're going to end on, I'll vote there now. I've got maybe 10 minutes and then I've really got to get back to work

[shannon]

If Sesq or Rask would like to let me know which wagon they think they're going to end on, I'll vote there now. I've got maybe 10 minutes and then I've really got to get back to work

I really don't like making definitive claims, as I like to be dynamic and open-minded with my reads, unlike the person I'm currently voting for. And for the reasons mentioned above, I'm With Her™ to the end of the day, most likely.

OK, I'll stay where I am. Good luck town and please lynch *somebody* so we can at least get some wagon comp info.

If I die tonight, Sesq and Rask are top town reads. Pretty sure Gerry is scum.

[shannon]

Do I have time? I'm very happy to see the end of Gerry.

Anyone opposing a hammer speak up now

[shannon]

OOh shit looks like the day was meant to be over a half hour ago.

Fingers crossed
VOTE: Gerry

[shannon]

I think I just hammered him. I scum read him, I don't scum read Shad so much.

[shannon]

This. This this this this this.

[quote="In post 2679, shannon"]OK reading D2 pretty sure Gerry is scum.

1401 is role fishing.
1468 is throwing shade on a PR claim.
1474 throws more shade and asks for a counter claim in order to lynch LUV. (Titus conveniently provides one, but I think Titus' post 1467 was the key here, Gerry picked up on the implication of Titus' question).
1484 he comes out and fully goes for LUV.
and in 1499 he pushes it even further.

Impoetic also looks bad in what I've quoted.

SSBM I'd like to know what you were theorising in 1441, if you can remember.

VOTE: Gerry

[shannon]

@Mod that's OK, the Americans are probably sleeping now

Before I get lynched for being the world's worst townie, anyone want to ask me anything?

[shannon]

Gerry knew there was a strongman because he docced transcend i guarantee it

That ... is a good point. Did Gerry get suspicious about Titus yesterday?

I am consoling myself that if Gerry had claimed, he either wouldn't have been believed, or would have been NKed. But still, sorry Gerry!

[shannon]

Shannon.
Not a single vote.
What's the excuse to your post?

Huh, what do you mean excuse?

When the day started I was 99% sure I was going to be toast over my gerry hammer, that's all. I expected that I'd need to go before LYLO and be on the block today.

[shannon]

Titus decided not to target anyone.
She wanted to be on point.
My personal problem with it, is that she also feared she'd be too dead to lead a wagon on Shadonra.

That's one thing that bothers me vs many things that bother me with Kyouko.

I 100% cannot see a town motivation for Titus not targeting anyone last night.

[shannon]

Oh, and why not do the same thing you did last night, Titus, i.e. make us guess and then wagon whoever got impatient with you?

[shannon]

Is this where I come in and make a rash judgment on a gut read again?

[shannon]

1. Sesq

2. shadonra

3. shannon

4. Drone
5. Titus

6. Raskolnikov

7. ssbm_Kyouko

Currently 5:2
Lynch wrong 4:2
Night kill 3:2

We should lynch either Titus or SSBM today, because a LYLO setup with both of them in it is the best chance for whichever of them is scum to win.

I'm still not convinced that there's not a bit of bussing happening here.

Consider - We lynch Titus who flips scum, then Drone (because of the neighbour claim), who flips town. Scum!SSBM is in LYLO, possibly with a couple of people who have been read differently all game, e.g. me and shad.

Would also explain why SSBM was saying that neighbours are always town, and we should lynch Drone if either because he's not a PR claim. Drone's flip would 'clear' Titus; or a Titus flip would lead to a Drone mislynch.

[shannon]

TBH, I had townreads on both of these people, and I agree it's pretty impossible they're both town. I want to give Rask a chance to weigh in before we decide tho, I think I'm way worse at this than he is

If the team is Rask and Sesq they deserve the win, frankly

[shannon]

Let's go over this again, with Gerry's flip:

Transcend used the BP, but died anyway.

LUV followed me N1, and I went nowhere.

D7 died N2.

Speculation: A strongman performed the night kills. Gerry may or may not have been right with his Doctoring (probably was N1) but it didn't matter.

Claims:

Titus used gunsmith on Impoetic N2 and got 'no result'
Titus did not use jailkeep N3, ergo, she still has one jailkeep left

Questions:
Given the confirmed town power we have, which is more balanced?
- Scum goon, scum strongman, scum roleblocker; town JOAT, doctor, 2 shot follower, universal backup
- Scum goon, scum strongman, scum ascetic; town JOAT, doctor, 2 shot follower, universal backup
- Scum goon x 2, scum strongman; town JOAT, doctor, 2 shot follower
- Some other combo?

My guess is 3, but I don't have a whole lot of experience to go on.

[shannon]

I'm VT also sorry!

[shannon]

I don't know what popcorn is, so whoever is left?

[shannon]

First impression of the hammer was shannon scum and either titus or me was dying.

That said if I was the only sane person and it was drone/shannon idk why it'd be TTTT

If the hard 1v1s are permanent it forces the lynching within it but not otherwise.

And titus says she'd only bet the game on shadonra.

There's actually no hard 1v1s then, kyouko's 100% on titus but titus says she's not as convinced on kyouko as on shadonra.
Titus is 100% on shadonra but shadonra townread titus yesterday and now says he's unsure and going to sheep on it.

It's a clusterfuck still but pre-emptively restricting the lynch is dangerous. Priority has to be scumlynch here above "resolving" 1v1s...

Wish titus died like normal so this setup spec shit wasn't still around. Really should've lynched drone yesterday to at least solve the neighbour thing.

You have hit the nail on the head here, and I think this kind of artificial restriction has been happening since D2. I need to check that I'm remembering it correctly, but I'm pretty sure it was driven by SSBM.

[shannon]

well hey that was obvious and cool

transcend i did figure out you were town while i was rereading = ( and i think kyouko's town too from what i've seen, but i'm far from finished catching up rip

rescinding the read on sesq

gerryoat: shit town play, there's no way to know strongarm here unless you're maf

>shit town play

>voting mafia the whole time

People on this site are stupid as fuck lmao. It's obvious since he claimed a PROTECTIVE ROLE. He would be the mafia hit. He had a BULLETPROOF SHOT. IT WOULD BE USED. Transcend isn't stupid. If you can't put 2+2 together you need to be mentored

Yeah, well I have learned the hard way, people don't do the smart thing sometimes and too smart to be town is plausible. I don't think you're scum but I cannot deny my radar pinging.

My reads are all messed up right now but I'm pretty confident in Kyouko, Sesq, and Shannon for town.

Explain, please.

I like a lot of the effort that Kyouko is putting in to solving the game. It could be faked but I don't get that from him. He seems to be considering every and any angle, investigating and reevaluating as much as he can, and following up with actual cases that force everyone to engage with him and the game itself.

You still read quite new to me and I don't see any scum intent in your posts.

I've been informed that Shannon didn't go anywhere last night and while that doesn't confirm anything, it makes me a feel whole lot better about my meta read on her.

@LUV: What did you mean by "my reads are all messed up right now"? Also, are you: claiming tracker; claiming that there exists an amnesiac (I think that's the modifier that sends your results to another player at random) tracker; choosing not to reveal that much yet?

@Shannon: Feel free to not comment on this for now if you so choose. If you went somewhere last night and are comfortable revealing that then let us know so we can lynch a liar, but if it's not worth revealing yet hold off.

I've only completed one game on this site and it's the only site I play on actually, the rest are ongoing. I don't know shit about balancing setups.

@Titus, TTTT, and the rest of the final 6 voting rb with me - What do you guys think about ironstove and drone voting for gerry yesterday with TTTT? We know rb is scum so since the Gerry wagon was the next-largest there was probably a scum trying to counterwagon him there. That puts one scum (2 would be very bold in case the rb lynch went through) in TTTT, ironstove, Drone.

if someone else is an investigation role, I say we lynch LUV cause I don't see 2 inv roles for town this game.

I think gerry and I might become BFFs.

I'm the one who was pointing to rb-LUV and shannon-LUV but iirc I didn't see much in the way of shannon-rb. I'd have to check my notes on PC after work though. Transcend's town block basically adopted TTTTs scum pool plus Shannon so you were in at least a few lynch pools but you weren't the focus, at least not my focus.

Uzi, why did you target shannon? You saw what rb flipped before you had to choose if you were going to use your action. Since you're one shot, I'd also question your choice to use the shot last night. Why not save your action for later use or at least target someone like Gerry or Impoetic who were both low activity yesterday, or someone like TTTT, Drone, or ironstove who was on the counter wagon to scum?

Crazy theory I'm nurturing: Impoetic/Titus scum team. The main reason I am TRing both of them is a combination of the conversation they had with each other and relying on Transcend's gut reads. Problem is, day talk is on and that whole conversation could have been rehearsed in the scum PT. Rabbit judged Impoetic as town for how fast she responded, saying that if she was scum it would be really hard to fake those responses so fast. Also note that neither of them would vote for rb yesterday iirc (can't check on mobile atm)

VOTE: Titus
Sorry Titus, my grass is greener.
If you're indeed town you should be aware of how low the rates of one of us being scum.
Your actions just scream scum to me.

Is this why you wanted me to not out our private talk?
The only possible claim Titus can make now is town Neighbour btw.
So no need to wait for their claim at all.

OK Sesq please claim

[shannon]

Ugh sorry for the million quotes in my q+

[shannon]

Yeah I think it's fair to say at this point that the 'no result' came from Titus being blocked and not from an ascetic.

[shannon]

Alright.
Confirmed what I wanted.

Sesq.
What gunsmith thing are you talking about?
Do you know Titus' claim at all?

I'm sure I heard gunsmith somewhere. Might be part of something greater.

Hey Sesc, you might want to not recreate the past while you do not even have a clue what is going on.

At least I'm open recieving new ideas.

Shit, you're dragging me down into your pettysphere.

Shannon, I'm VT.

I am. You need to provide new facts.

Instead, you ran off and lynched my lock town read.

I'm the first to admit I stuffed up D3.

Your town read on Gerry and refusal to lynch there, when you probably spotted the clues to his PR status that only became evident to me afterward, is really what's stopping me lynching you today. That, and that I've had vibes about SSBM on-and-off all game

[shannon]

You seem to want me to go elsewhere or believe he is town. If you want me to do that, ok. You will need to say why.

I need to know why I cannot get a basic conversation on him. Waiting for a compromise just wound up with you ignoring my compromise pool and lynching obvious town.

The problem I have with lynching Shad is that you tried to tie him to me because I got frustrated and impatient with you for not revealing who you targeted.

[shannon]

You seem to want me to go elsewhere or believe he is town. If you want me to do that, ok. You will need to say why.

I need to know why I cannot get a basic conversation on him. Waiting for a compromise just wound up with you ignoring my compromise pool and lynching obvious town.

The problem I have with lynching Shad is that you tried to tie him to me because I got frustrated and impatient with you for not revealing who you targeted.

You made a dumb play and I temporarily scumread you for it. I apologize for that. Sometimes I do mistake dumb for scum.

That is the worst apology I've ever read. I hope you're not like that IRL!

[shannon]

Drone, is the neighbourhood real? And is it true that neither of you is a neighbouriser, you were just in it from the get go?

[shannon]

I think it's a fakeclaim here. The setup seems townsided after the doctor flip and titus has a reputation for claiming crazy things and creative play in general.

She's still alive d4 and didn't jailkeep anyone last night apparently which is straight up dumb after doctor died... Not jailkeeping shadonra makes sense with how much she expressed the scumread (and apparently ascetic) but you'd at least jailkeep kyouko if you see them as partner and they're heavily townread and a possible NK to boot.

Titus is a really experienced player and even though the conviction makes it sound like she believes what she says I think it's not that hard to fake, given the simplicity of her arguments.

It's weird too because fluffy seemed benign enough and I really liked titus pushing shannon when I got in but I'm definitely not sure on that one anymore. Probably not the most reliable tell there is tbh.

That said, now of all times shadonra's actually kind of gone quiet even though his entrance was pretty good. Given he's being hard pushed by titus who's leading wagon he should really give his thoughts on all of this. I want his analysis and some stances here as opposed to sheeping.

If today's a mislynch this becomes pretty much unwinnable so today HAS to be done right. Would be a bit more comfortable with this if titus didn't rocket to l-1 as fast as she did either.

^^This

[shannon]

Just do not lynch me until I come up with a plan for you to follow tomorrow. I have company coming into town tonight.

I think if you were going to be hammered it would have happened by now. Scum are probably already on the wagon.

[shannon]

Because Shadonra and your reads are solidified to the towny side.
While Shannon is shaky here and Rask lives WAYYY too long.

The next nk will also clear up shit ton of stuff

Do you really think Rask has lived too long? I don't see that.

[shannon]

Just do not lynch me until I come up with a plan for you to follow tomorrow. I have company coming into town tonight.

I think if you were going to be hammered it would have happened by now. Scum are probably already on the wagon.

Well, TTTT (townflip) hammered on D1, Drone (?) hammered on D2, and shannon (YOU) hammered on D3... might want to reconsider this logic here.

I don't quite see what you're getting at?

[shannon]

P sure nobody will bus today. The only reason anyone outside of Me, Titus, Drone would get lynched today is one or both of the scum are inside this pool. Titus and Drone actually make sense as partners but I don't see who else makes sense with Titus. Maybe Rask. I could see Drone with Rask if shad is town, like I said, but Drone/shad might be possible. Nothing immediately jumps to my mind that tells me they can't be a team when I consider the possibility.

I don't think so. Is it realistic that they'd claim neighbours? It's only served to draw attention to them, which scum wouldn't want. It also means that if one is caught, they both are. I'm not buying this argument.

[shannon]

I can see Rask's utility from a scum perspective:

First, noone is willing to throw down everything to lynch him or throw down anything to save him. So that's good for scum.

Second, Rask spent most of the game tunnelling me, which is at best helpful to scum (I nearly got lynched) and at worst neutral. After I hammered N3, they might have expected Rask to continue the tunnel and get me lynched. I think that's useful to scum because the heat would be off them and on me.

No?

[shannon]

The only person I'm 100% not lynching today is Sesq.

SSBM I am unlkely to lynch. He keeps trying to set up groups of lynch candidates, with strategies that seem town motivated. Or at least, I can't poke any obvious holes in them. I think that 3015 is probably right; RB was not a glorious town wagon and at least one scum was on it, with {Titus Drone SSBM} remaining. I'm unlikely to lynch SSBM unless someone comes up with something really significant.

Drone and Titus together I can't see. As I said above, I can't think why the two of them would concoct a cover story that involved a neighbourhood. So, which one?

Shad I am really unsure about. I can see a possible Titus/Shad team. Titus interpreting a no result as guilty caused most of us to rebel and say 'no way', and that kind of freed Shad up to be a town read, or at least null. I can see that as plausible.

Drone and Shad I just plain don't see. If anyone has a really good case for this as the team can they please out it?

Rask I have town read for a while but I am wondering whether I am alone there?

[shannon]

Rask wasn't just tunneling you, he unlike you did come up with points to think about.
Good points even.
I don't think TTTT was ever a threat to scum with his no reads and his essential prod dodging.
Try to relink it Sesq.

OK so we broadly agree that Rask looks like town?