Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Kairal]

Also AJ you are now the third person to get my gender wrong. Male. Not female. This isn't hard people.

[Naomi-Tan]

Urgh im too sleepy to handle this properly.. Okay so here is how I'm going to deal with this right now. I'm going to direct a small bit at each of you then im going to sleep and I expect to change whats going on.

Kairal Thought your read after your theory lined up with my declaration, I would advise you reconcider your actions. The way you got to the read is flawed.

Kairal II: Though It is a flawed read it is not in anyway alignment indicative. Just not a theory that is fuctional as its built on flawed foundations

AJ: this is oppertunistic and bad play does not equal Red members. Your right about the logic and the theory (at least I think I didn;t really check as I just want sleep) but it was not the time to push as It did not reflect on their alignment

Both: We should focus on less wildcard lynches today. you may red read each other but the majority is focused on flubs and myself. You should also focus us as the day is all most over and tackle your issues tommorow when we can explore this more in depth without risking a rushed misslynch due to time.

Hopefully this settles you both down. I didn't really wanna post as I just want sleep but I couldn't let this sit and result in a miss lynch.

[Kairal]

You'll note that I'm still voting Flubs.

AJ could not be more transparent about moving his vote from flubs to me. Regardless I intend to start with Flubs and go from there

[Kairal]

Also I would advise not being taken in by AJ's walls of texts. The short version of my analysis is that I think scum are unlikely to vote as a block. Therefore there should always be at least one on each side of every vote.

Regardless doing that lead me right back to Flubber and Naomi both of whom I had been considering anyway.

Like if I threw out the vote analysis I'd probably still be voting Flubber anyway. The reason for AJ suddenly finding it suspicious is that he never intended to lynch Flubber.

Moreover before if he bussed Flubber he could at least get some town cred for it. Now that I've pointed out their allegiance he knows he's screwed as soon as Flubber flips. So why bus if you won't get towncred? May as well throw some dirt on me, buy scum another day and hope the third member of the team can pull out a win.

[Dierfire]

@Kairal (three consecutive posts)

Dier has kindly reminded me that my reads suck.

I did not intend for the question to come across this way; I apologize for that.

The reason that I asked is that when I look at your earlier votes, it seems that they were mostly cast on the basis of whether a player justified a vote with sufficient quantity (rather than sufficient

quality

) of analysis. If I take 651 as indicative of your methodology, I could note that you seem to get stuck at the first step (forcing players to generate content) without proceeding to the second (analyze that content). I could also cite your read on me; you've been saying that I'm Town fairly consistently because my posts are analytical (926, 1041, 1330), but you never actually discuss my reads themselves.

The reason that this concerns me is that it doesn't look like following through and attempting to read alignments.

To be fair, there are a few reads that I noticed that don't conform to this pattern.

You read HellloooNewman as Town (correctly) in 660 because the vote on MiniDeathStar (544) didn't feel opportunistic. However, within 12 hours (668) you express suspicion because he gives few opinions on other players, and by 708 you say that the tunnel makes HellloooNewman suspicious! That's strange to me because, if the vote isn't suspicious because it's a difficult lynch to push, the tunnel should also not be suspicious.

Your read on Io as Town (715) also addresses motivations (did Io have any motivation to lie about the reason for voting for Aj The Epic), although in this case that wasn't quite the point (we didn't find Io suspicious because we thought that she was lying about the reason to vote Aj The Epic, we found Io suspicious because we thought that her reasons for voting Aj The Epic were weaker than her reasons to vote for other players, which made it seem that she didn't believe her own reads and therefore that the reads were not genuine).

More recently your votes seem to be for associative and POE reasons; there's nothing inherently wrong with this, but I'd really want to be certain that your Town reads were solid results of an attempt to read alignment before I'd accept these at face value. For example, your read that I Am Innocent is unlikely to be Mafia for the push on me is one with which I agree (for slightly different reason than what you gave)--but I'm not sure that you have as much reason to be confident that I'm Town as I do!

[Dierfire]

I checked into a previous game (Newbie 1754: Fire Game Over), and I found posts like these. These seem a lot more interested in assessing motivation and alignment than what I've seen from you in this game. All the underlining is mine.

Daya: that post is getting too long to quote so I'll just respond to a few important bits. I am saying you are extremely confident in your read on death being scum and I would like you to tell us why.

So far you haven't provided anywhere near enough reasoning for how certain you are that death is scum.

(This one is sort of equivocal and could fit both patterns, but I think that the request for more content is secondary to the attempt to assess the confidence of the read.)

It's true that Cerb brought up that he would hammer death if he was scum. I addressed that: he comes out looking pretty clean if he just sits around and waits for a death lynch to happen. The next day he can go "you all lynched death and he's town, which I said all along, now you should trust me".

However if he's the kind of scum that prefers to keep his hands clean by being passive why suddenly try to push for Daya? If he was willing to put his fingerprints on a lynch as he's clearly done with Daya then why not do so with death? There's no consistency there.

So maybe he's scum just playing a risky gambit where he stands out from the crowd and draws a lot of attention early, and then plans to do what I said, until I called him out for it at which point he starts pushing Daya to throw me off. It's possible. But it's also really complicated and at a certain point you have to use Occam's razor.

It's really vastly more likely that he's just a town player who doesn't like making reads or votes until he's very confident rather than the 4 dimensional chess I outlined above.

In short if Aelin is a passive defensive player why draw attention to herself by not voting? If she is an aggressive player why not vote for the suspicious guy who isn't on her team? I don't really see a place where the one person does both of these things- it seems much more likely that she was unwilling to make a call either way. As scum it doesn't make sense to not be trying to sway that vote. It makes a lot of sense for town though

[Dierfire]

Also I guess that I should address the most recent VCA.

I'm not sure that there's actually much analysis there. Given how many possible combinations of Mafia/Town players there are (and the roughly 50/50 split among players excepting massive, BlackVoid, and the analyzer), statements like "it is unlikely that Naomi-Tan and Flubbernugget are both Town" are always going to look plausible.

What I actually want to ask is this: if you follow the analysis to the level of individual votes, is Naomi-Tan or Flubbernugget more suspicious? For example, you say that it is unlikely that all Mafia players voted for Io, and therefore that either Naomi-Tan or Flubbernugget should be Mafia. If you look at their reads on Io (predecessor's read for Naomi-Tan), does one stand out to you as a Mafia player avoiding the wagon, or are you just tossing a coin?

[Dierfire]

I'm reading Flubbernugget tomorrow.

[Kairal]

Worth pointing out I was wrong that game. Consistently. I've been just as wrong this game. Clearly my ability to analyze individual arguments is flawed. Thus I'm looking for a pattern in the votes and arguments people have made. Aj immediately called me out, tried to shoot down the argument and downplay suspicion even though it implicated Flubber, supposedly his top scum read.

To my mind it's quite clear. I asked AJ if he'd vote for his top scum read - he chose instead to vote for me despite arguing that the scum team had to be Flubber and only possibly me. If I were scum I'd be voting for a teammate and town Aj should be fine with that.

Aside from that he has been extremely vocal about rejecting massive's cop claim (I admit I was swayed). Far too vocal frankly. He doesn't have a PR that would give him extra information for such suspicion.

[Kairal]

Also anytime someone suggests I haven't been arguing about motivations I wonder if I'm taking crazy pills. Culted obviously has a scum motive in not having us lynch Flubber if they are teammates. AJ the same.

Now if Aj were town and he thought Flubber was town he'd be telling us why. He's not. He's ostensibly still scum reading Flubber- he's just very quick to move the vote when it looks like Flubber might be in danger.

Anyway to be honest I don't find the persuading part of this game very interesting. I've deduced who scum are- if none of you want to vote for it that's your problem. If you doubt me vote me off and it will become clear that I am not scum and have in fact found the scum team. Alternatively you could just lynch flubber today. Not fussed either way really.

[culted]

including you whose reads I mostly aligned with all game.

So if you acknowledge this and then realize precisely how sheeplurk your play was up until you softclaimed cop why isn't it understandable that you've been off my radar until you start pushing me as scum for no reason?

I assume you'll come back around at some point and re-read the conversation that Just Freaking Happened regarding this. Who knows though.

It's the new playstyle. -Complete obliviousness-

Culted fits well into scum teams, hasn't been very helpful and has a pretty bad push on me.

I wish I could say there's never been a worse case on me. : 3
But IAMI thinks I'm scum because........ nobody else has pushed him yet.

I just still don't understand like my initial push was just trying to get you to expound on your thoughts- I don't wanna play mafia in a world where that's scummy. Or acceptable to not have to explain why you think things are scummy ya know?

So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
I'l get caught up during the weekend.
Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?

Ok so my main scumread on culted comes from him hving useful interactions for a scum team with Flubber and massive. I'm not scum reading either of them right now it's a little hard to justify a culted read.

Do you think scum shadow would post this about me if we were on a team culted?

I don't really see why not.

There's actually a world where you, with your vote everything that moves kinda thing going on, would feel compelled to not just vote for town and wanted to pressure shadow a bit for being a low contributor. In such a case I figure this is exactly how they'd respond. There isn't really any commitment going on from either side because he can just start posting again- or replace out and you guys create some distance in the process then go about your merry way as if nothing ever happened.

If you're going to say you're not scumreading Flubber/culted/massive, I'm gonna want a new reads list from you.

More benefit of the doubt than I would give.

snip

First of all: lol @ the idea of me being scum with kairal. Why do you think I'm scum?

I'm also finding it hard to follow the logic that because kairal and iami started pushing me recently but kairal dropped her scumread on me for a decent minute that they don't make sense as scum together.

What is your read on iami independent of me and kairal?
And how does flubber fit in with naomi considering she's mostly just talked about voting him since she replaced in?

Urgh im too sleepy to handle this properly.. Okay so here is how I'm going to deal with this right now. I'm going to direct a small bit at each of you then im going to sleep and I expect to change whats going on.

Kairal Thought your read after your theory lined up with my declaration, I would advise you reconcider your actions. The way you got to the read is flawed.

Kairal II: Though It is a flawed read it is not in anyway alignment indicative. Just not a theory that is fuctional as its built on flawed foundations

AJ: this is oppertunistic and bad play does not equal Red members. Your right about the logic and the theory (at least I think I didn;t really check as I just want sleep) but it was not the time to push as It did not reflect on their alignment

Both: We should focus on less wildcard lynches today. you may red read each other but the majority is focused on flubs and myself. You should also focus us as the day is all most over and tackle your issues tommorow when we can explore this more in depth without risking a rushed misslynch due to time.

Hopefully this settles you both down. I didn't really wanna post as I just want sleep but I couldn't let this sit and result in a miss lynch.

What even?

If you're trying to calm down an argument I'm wondering why you need to misrep both sides down to insultingly basic levels and then just straight up tell them that they're wrong.

clip

I nodded along to this mostly.

And I don't believe kairal's poe is genuine because it changes around too much and when I ask him about certain reads like his townreads on you and iami I'm left with shrugs or in even stranger cases... that iami is actually a worse example of one of his prominent reasons for throwing shade on people in general: who pushed on jin and for what reason.

[massive]

I did particularly like the VCA. Especially since if I do it, I get Kairal as the person who was most often not voting for the lynch. That means I'm supposed to scumread him, right?

[Aj The Epic]

AJ: this is oppertunistic and bad play does not equal Red members. Your right about the logic and the theory (at least I think I didn;t really check as I just want sleep) but it was not the time to push as It did not reflect on their alignment

Both: We should focus on less wildcard lynches today. you may red read each other but the majority is focused on flubs and myself. You should also focus us as the day is all most over and tackle your issues tommorow when we can explore this more in depth without risking a rushed misslynch due to time.

Opportunistic play is absolutely scum. I'm a person who hunts by motive anyways, so of course I'm not really going to agree with this. Kairal's VCA is flawed from the beginning since VCA is normally done over the entirety of the day, not just end of lynches. However, when Kairal suggests I should help him instead of calling him on the bad method, two issues arise. First, I can't actually do VCA. I play with people who do VCA but all I do is make sure it looks right. Secondly, I only call that VCA because that's what it looks closest to. Even VCA will use their own initial reads to benefit their hunt/eliminate certain scenarios. My first issue with Kairal's VCA was it wasn't conclusive. Sure he got results from it, but reading his logic, I didn't get anything close to it. What I got was any single person outside the cleared, cop claim and Kairal himself could be mafia. Not exactly a good way to go, considering now more than ever town reads need to be reinforced.

If you or Flubber is town, particularly you because you brought it up, I want to see you prove this. Mostly, give me a solid reason for your scum reads and stop playing the LAMIST card so much. AKA stop advocating for your own lynch. I don't buy that kind of stuff because it's all a category of WIFOM. To me, it's you or Flubber as the last mafia, which is why I'd prefer to have you two fight to stay alive as opposed to take a 50/50.

snip

First of all: lol @ the idea of me being scum with kairal. Why do you think I'm scum?

I'm also finding it hard to follow the logic that because kairal and iami started pushing me recently but kairal dropped her scumread on me for a decent minute that they don't make sense as scum together.

What is your read on iami independent of me and kairal?
And how does flubber fit in with naomi considering she's mostly just talked about voting him since she replaced in?

I can answer this in about one grouping: I think IaI is town and right. If Kairal was scum with IaI and you're town, doesn't it make sense for Kairal to keep her scumread on you and then not do any of this at all?

Also if you notice, my read with Flubber/Naomi is that one is part of the last spot, not both. There is the chance of it being theatre but it'd be fairly one-sided (I don't think Flubber has acknowledged Naomi at all this game).

[massive]

The immediate problem with Kairal's scumread on culted was that it was almost completely based on pushing me as scum. Once Kairal figured out he had to drop me as a scumread, the culted scumread had to go too.

And I might be being buddied out of my shorts, but I'm less convinced about culted being scum.

[Aj The Epic]

Where are you at in regards to reads?

[massive]

Outside BV I think AJ and Dierfire are my best townreads. Not super interested in lynching culted or IamI really either. I'm wondering how many scumslips we're going to let Naomi skate by with.

I haven't changed much from here. I'm still trying to figure out Flubber's explosion and how to read it.

[Flubbernugget]

I'm going to catch up again tonight.

[I Am Innocent]

including you whose reads I mostly aligned with all game.

So if you acknowledge this and then realize precisely how sheeplurk your play was up until you softclaimed cop why isn't it understandable that you've been off my radar until you start pushing me as scum for no reason?

Interesting how I was off your radar until the cop softclaim but yet in 573 you say: "Wouldn't end the day without content from IAMI."

About 400 posts ahead of the softclaim...hmmm.

Or was that entirely about throwing shade my way since I'm pretty sure "reads being aligned" <> "sheeping"

[I Am Innocent]

@culted, why did you hammer Io before giving her a chance to claim?

I didn't. If you're a role and someone declares intent and you don't claim you're either vt or scum silly!

Need more from Dierfire. So far two votes, Cloudkicker/Shadows slot (who I read town) and Io. 21 posts between him and his predecessor.

I haven't hated his content when he does post, though. And this is gonna sound weird but he's the only one who saw what I was trying to do during mini and cloud's early argument.

Was my subtle attempting at sidelining what I thought was tvt pretty obvious and something scum pick up on? Unbiased opinion would help.

Yes I suppose I can ask why. Given that you know I'm going to do so why not just save us all time? Can everyone who blankvoted recently or in future please do not and instead explain your vote.

There's certainly value to holding back reasoning that you're not accounting for, though! You don't want to let scum know why you're scumreading them, at least not right away. You also may want to see if other town are picking up what you're picking up. : )

Alright I can come back to massive later. I was about to lynch Cloud yesterday when he got replaced out and Shadow has basically slipped under the radar. I read through Io's ISO and either I missed it or she never really made a push on IamI - why are Shadow and Mini suddenly pointing fingers there?

VOTE: Shadow

I don't like the first line.
The last line seems like a throwaway question.

I understand why their suspicion strikes you as sudden. But why is sudden interesting in this particular instance, kai?

I am neither scum or scum. I am Jin, master townie. Anyways, if i had a gun to my head and i had to lay down a vote i would vote massive from going off of yesterday but i was wrong about Newman and IO, so maybe i am not 100% right all the time. About these votes on me, i dont seem to see a case, am i just missing it?

VOTE: Saj

I'd have voted him for that post too!

Mini's 900

Calls jin lynchbait like 5 times and then tosses shade on him for 'copying her reads' in the same post.
One that doesn't make sense and is hedgy as all get out.
Two you basically saw'd flubber for voting jin just because jin has a lynchbait rep.

Terrible look considering that this was when momentum started to shift pretty strongly against jin; feels like trying for towncred on a mislynch but not wanting to kill the traction at the same time.

Or maybe not try for towncred (depending on what kind of player scum!mini is) because that post isn't gonna look

that

good on a townflip as much as other posts would have.
But using jin as leverage while still opening the idea up for others to see him hang is more like it and is actually kinda worse now that I'm thinking about it.

Reaction test.

I've developed no reads in this games by interacting with other players.
I thought town was going in the correct direction so I just sheeped my town reads basically, the Hello flip just baffled me. Even the way the claimed I couldn't believe it at all. It seemed like it was a last ditch attempt at drawing a CC.
Been pretty crap by my own standards, so I wanted to see how he reacts and how other do to it.

VOTE: Shadow

No official top 3 for the day I found, but subtle attacks on kairal and mini, vote to Shadow. No mention of {AJ, Flubber, or Dierfire}

Apparently you missed this too (tho it came after the cop soft claim so I'd think you'd have been paying attention to me by now), thought I'd share again.

[I Am Innocent]

@culted, why did you hammer Io before giving her a chance to claim?

I didn't. If you're a role and someone declares intent and you don't claim you're either vt or scum silly!

Need more from Dierfire. So far two votes, Cloudkicker/Shadows slot (who I read town) and Io. 21 posts between him and his predecessor.

I haven't hated his content when he does post, though. And this is gonna sound weird but he's the only one who saw what I was trying to do during mini and cloud's early argument.

Was my subtle attempting at sidelining what I thought was tvt pretty obvious and something scum pick up on?

Unbiased opinion would help

.

Why if you started suspecting me would you ask me for an "unbiased opinion"?

[Dierfire]

I missed the soft claim. Where was that?

[I Am Innocent]

Beginning of day 3, I mention my belief that I think there is an even night cop (and I might even be it) and that the proper play is that they should wait until part way through the day before claiming. Not sure I'd call it a soft claim, but whatevs.

No I heavily suspected Jin. Both D1 and D2, just as much as newman. Io was my third choice. Needless to say my reads have sucked this game.

As for my D2 suspicion of the dierfire slot, it had to do with

1) replace out by elhabe
2) poor quantity and quality vote history of that slot
3) wishiwashiness of dierfire late D2

I may be or might expect we have an even night cop as well. I would play or strongly suggest that player not divulge any information from said investigation until this day has played out some (say a week).

I agree with AJ that we should all produce top 3 list at this point of who we suspect/ would be willing to vote. I'll do so as well once I get access to my work computer which has the vote history (prob Saturday). No reason to rush votes at this point.

[Kairal]

I understand now. Nobody actually reads my posts. There's no way you could accidentally call me a chick again otherwise. After 3 posts asking people to stop doing that shit.

[massive]

Clearly you shouldn't have been so worried about me not explaining my votes.

[Kairal]

Naomi, Flubber,

you|massive

AJ: this is oppertunistic and bad play does not equal Red members. Your right about the logic and the theory (at least I think I didn;t really check as I just want sleep) but it was not the time to push as It did not reflect on their alignment

Both: We should focus on less wildcard lynches today. you may red read each other but the majority is focused on flubs and myself. You should also focus us as the day is all most over and tackle your issues tommorow when we can explore this more in depth without risking a rushed misslynch due to time.

Opportunistic play is absolutely scum. I'm a person who hunts by motive anyways, so of course I'm not really going to agree with this. Kairal's VCA is flawed from the beginning since VCA is normally done over the entirety of the day, not just end of lynches. However, when Kairal suggests I should help him instead of calling him on the bad method, two issues arise. First, I can't actually do VCA. I play with people who do VCA but all I do is make sure it looks right. Secondly, I only call that VCA because that's what it looks closest to. Even VCA will use their own initial reads to benefit their hunt/eliminate certain scenarios. My first issue with Kairal's VCA was it wasn't conclusive. Sure he got results from it, but reading his logic, I didn't get anything close to it. What I got was any single person outside the cleared, cop claim and Kairal himself could be mafia. Not exactly a good way to go, considering now more than ever town reads need to be reinforced.

If you or Flubber is town, particularly you because you brought it up, I want to see you prove this. Mostly, give me a solid reason for your scum reads and stop playing the LAMIST card so much. AKA stop advocating for your own lynch. I don't buy that kind of stuff because it's all a category of WIFOM. To me, it's you or Flubber as the last mafia, which is why I'd prefer to have you two fight to stay alive as opposed to take a 50/50.

snip

First of all: lol @ the idea of me being scum with kairal. Why do you think I'm scum?

I'm also finding it hard to follow the logic that because kairal and iami started pushing me recently but kairal dropped her scumread on me for a decent minute that they don't make sense as scum together.

What is your read on iami independent of me and kairal?
And how does flubber fit in with naomi considering she's mostly just talked about voting him since she replaced in?

I can answer this in about one grouping: I think IaI is town and right. If Kairal was scum with IaI and you're town, doesn't it make sense for Kairal to keep her scumread on you and then not do any of this at all?

Also if you notice, my read with Flubber/Naomi is that one is part of the last spot, not both

. There is the chance of it being theatre but it'd be fairly one-sided (I don't think Flubber has acknowledged Naomi at all this game).

Yep definitely town AJ here. No lying about reads no sir!