Mini Normal 1854: Game Over

[Dierfire]

VOTE COUNT 5.02

hapahauli (1): TwoFace

No Vote (4): xSoniaNevermindx, Gamma Emerald, hapahauli, Aristophanes

With 5 players living, 3 votes are required to lynch.

TIMER

(expired on 2017-01-19 20:30:00)

NOTES

hapahauli replaces Joshz

[xSoniaNevermindx]

Looking else where doesn't hurt though does it?

[hapahauli]

Hello world. I'll be taking the next few hours to catch up in the thread. Feel free to ask me any questions.

[xSoniaNevermindx]

Hello world. I'll be taking the next few hours to catch up in the thread. Feel free to ask me any questions.

Is the sky really blue
do you like the color magenta
Is pineapple as bad as people tell me
why do we have bees in the world?

Hi :3

[TwoFace]

hapahauli replaces Joshz

yeah now I definitely want this lynched

[xSoniaNevermindx]

Oh boy...

[TwoFace]

unannounced replacement request out of the blue without any sort of reasoning is a huge red flag. It isn't necessarily alignment indicative but since I was already scum reading him, it doesn't help his situation.

[hapahauli]

Hello world. I'll be taking the next few hours to catch up in the thread. Feel free to ask me any questions.

Is the sky really blue
do you like the color magenta
Is pineapple as bad as people tell me
why do we have bees in the world?

Hi :3

I'm sure there's a physics explanation for why the sky isn't blue, but it doesn't change how pretty it is.
Ew no.
I love me some pineapple.
It's nature's way of reminding you that important things can still be annoying and painful.

hapahauli replaces Joshz

yeah now I definitely want this lynched

Yeah? Well fuck you too.

What gives?

[hapahauli]

unannounced replacement request out of the blue without any sort of reasoning is a huge red flag. It isn't necessarily alignment indicative but

since I was already scum reading him, it doesn't help his situation

.

You might want to take a step back here. You sound like you'd read any action that the person in this slot would do as "scummy."

Regardless, I didn't expect to replace into an easy situation. I am town, and I will prove myself town over this cycle. I don't play on this site very often (I think I've played 1 complete town game). However, I have played a large number of games on another website (teamliquid.net). You can take a look at my past games here (Ctrl + F for "Hapahauli).
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/3 ... a-database

I've been mislynched as town once in over 20 games. If you give me the chance to work, it will be very obvious over the course of this cycle that I'm town.

All I'm asking for is a chance to work.

[TwoFace]

when all signs point to your slot being scum and your predecessor replaces out without any sort of reasoning, it doesn't make you look good.

has nothing to do with you personally, you just replaced into a scum slot.

[TwoFace]

All I'm asking for is a chance to work.

unfortunately I can't trust anything you say. With 2 scum flips already it is easy as hell to manipulate posts to your advantage.

the reluctance to vote emp and actually tried to push people on to gamma is such a red flag given how hard he was pushing that slot earlier in the game.

maybe you can convince others but i'm stubborn like that.

[hapahauli]

I'm going to take a dive in some filters. A couple of questions for you guys:

@ TwoFace - What do you consider about my predecessors behavior to be so damning? If my slot isn't mafia, who is? Or are you unwilling to even entertain that?

@ Sonia - Who do you think is the last mafia right now? Who do you consider incredibly unlikely to be mafia?

[xSoniaNevermindx]

I'm going to take a dive in some filters. A couple of questions for you guys:

@ TwoFace - What do you consider about my predecessors behavior to be so damning? If my slot isn't mafia, who is? Or are you unwilling to even entertain that?

@ Sonia - Who do you think is the last mafia right now? Who do you consider incredibly unlikely to be mafia?

Gamma/Aris hold last mafia to me and I think you and twoface are town

[hapahauli]

All I'm asking for is a chance to work.

unfortunately I can't trust anything you say. With 2 scum flips already it is easy as hell to manipulate posts to your advantage.

the reluctance to vote emp and actually tried to push people on to gamma is such a red flag given how hard he was pushing that slot earlier in the game.

maybe you can convince others but i'm stubborn like that.

What gives you such a strong read on our slots (TwoFace and Myself)?

[TwoFace]

@ TwoFace - What do you consider about my predecessors behavior to be so damning? If my slot isn't mafia, who is? Or are you unwilling to even entertain that?

I have already explained. The hard push on scum vedith early on and the backing away from that slot the previous day phase and pushing elsewhere with lack of reasoning. The attempted hammer that was counted because of a caveat in the rules that he probably didn't know about, i certainly didn't until i read them again.

if your slot isn't mafia, I most likely won't have to worry about it because I should be nk'd tonight.

if I am alive in lylo, everyone is back to ground zero and I will look at each person's posts and compare them to interactions with scum.


I don't think i can seriously entertain any case you make, but I will try if you make one.

[hapahauli]

I have something you can entertain TwoFace. I just finished re-reading yesterday's lynch, and I think Sonia comes out of it looking the worst by far.

I'm going start by summarizing the day as I read it. Feel free to correct me if something in these facts is wrong.
1) Uzi (town) starts the wagon right away on EmpKing.
2) The more active town members (Sonia, EmpKing, Josh, TwoFace, Aris) throw around suspicions. Suspicion is split between EmpKing, Gamma, and TwoFace.
3) Aris breaks the deadlock, becoming "tired of the 1v1" between TK and EmpKing. Aris starts to push EmpKing hard.
4) The town gradually begins to consolidate on EmpKing.
5) The only other major suspicion that is pushed is Josh pushing Gamma. Josh seems to double down on this after Aris votes EmpKing.
6) Josh eventually gives up on the wagon, and Hammers Emp.

All good? Good.

What this summary ignores is Sonia. While she was active, she played virtually no role in how the lynch went down yesterday. Mafia want to hide. They have an instinct not to stick out. To not make commitments. And to avoid making contributions while it seems like they are active and helping.

This is Sonia's play to a T yesterday!

.

Can't say I expected that
I rather Gamma get lynched over EMP but I really don't have a pref cause I don't both are scum.

This is Sonia's reads as of the beginning of the D4 cycle. Note that she is suspicious of Gamma and EMP. She thinks both of mafia but conveniently would like to get Gamma lynched over the person who flipped mafia yesterday. Note that while she is suspicious of both players, her post is devoid of actual analysis. This pattern continues throughout the rest of the cycle.

Interesting stance.

I think I really need to re read twoface because he's the only one I'm like "Well you can go either way" for me atm my other reads feel pretty solid

This is her next important post (note, that while there are three posts between these two, they are not important. She asks a 1 lined question about EMP/Gamma, and then has two innocuous posts correcting typos). In addition to Emp/Gamma, she throws suspicion on TwoFace. There is no analysis here, just finger-pointing.

Waiting for something to happen before I vote.
hopefully it happens before I leave and if it doesn't I'll just vote

The want to hammer before my V/LA is quite tempting but I think it'd be nice to comeback refreshed so I'ma head off cya all laters!

Next posts. Same pattern. She's stating that she is active. Still not voting... still not doing anything productive...

D4 finishes without Sonia having placed a vote, despite her activity!

She's active, present, and constantly reminding the thread that she is around, but never posts any analysis, and spends the entire day waffling between EMP/Gamma (conveniently preferring a Gamma lynch).

This is consistent with mafia trying to hedge their bets - wanting to cover her tracks by saying that she is suspicious of EMP, all while avoiding making any pro-town contributions and avoiding making any move to lynch mafia (EMP).

And the final coup-de-grace - her post from the beginning of this cycle:

Emp flipped

scum yay great that was expected!

I'd lynch Aris/Gamma
Aris sudden aggro stance near the end of the day towards me felt really out of place I'd like to hear more on that
Gamma wanting twoface is because he know's he's in a really bad spot and will need to try and get as much wiggle room as he can
Twoface you and Josh are town thank you take another look at the newbie slot and actions and you should be able to see it for yourself

She claims that this result was expected! All during her super waffly uncommitted play yesterday. If this was so expected,

why didn't she vote yesterday?

[hapahauli]

TwoFace, I think that should establish that Sonia's worth looking at, even if you are still suspicious of my slot. However, I would like you to consider her last post:

I'm going to take a dive in some filters. A couple of questions for you guys:

@ TwoFace - What do you consider about my predecessors behavior to be so damning? If my slot isn't mafia, who is? Or are you unwilling to even entertain that?

@ Sonia - Who do you think is the last mafia right now? Who do you consider incredibly unlikely to be mafia?

Gamma/Aris hold last mafia to me and

I think you and twoface are town

Why is Sonia so sure that my slot is town?

I just read D4. I understand I had an initially hostile reaction to you TwoFace. But after reading D4, I'm sympathetic. Josh's behavior looks incredibly suspicious from yesterday. The guy waffles between Gamma and EMP all day, pushes Gamma hard, then switches at the very last minute to hammer EMP. That looks terrible, combined with him pushing EMP very hard earlier in the game.

Despite this, Sonia seems to have no doubt that I'm town.

And she has never justified this read!

A Ctrl+F for "Josh" in her filter reveals the following posts...

ah screw it it's all the active lurking comments
I dislike how you called joshz scum for his lurking when I was doing the EXACT same thing

Emp flipped scum yay great that was expected!

I'd lynch Aris/Gamma
Aris sudden aggro stance near the end of the day towards me felt really out of place I'd like to hear more on that
Gamma wanting twoface is because he know's he's in a really bad spot and will need to try and get as much wiggle room as he can

Twoface you and Josh are town

thank you take another look at the newbie slot and actions and you should be able to see it for yourself

That's it! No justifications, no nothing.

Town players are paranoid. They are in the dark. They do not know alignments. Sonia is acting the complete opposite of this. She's not naturally suspicious of what she should be, and doesn't seem like she's actively reading the thread or pushing anything. The only thing she seems to be really interested in over the last two cycles is softly and quietly pushing Gamma (whom seems very lynchbaity) to the gallows.

The simple explanation is that she mafia, and she knows that this slot is town.

[hapahauli]

The only parts of this game I've read seriously so far are D4 (and some D3 for context). I did skim the thread to see if I was missing something critical about Sonia's slot (i.e. she's a confirmed town or something), but that doesn't seem to be the case.

If I'm missing any critical information about Sonia that negates the above, please let me know. However I'm

extremely

convinced that she is mafia based on her D4 play. It fits mafia objectives perfectly.

As for the rest of the players...
Ari had a huge hand in lynching EMP yesterday. He was one of the first players to make a hard commitment to lynch EMP and decisively swung the town down a successful scum lynch.
TwoFace was pushed hard by EMP for some extremely suspect reasons. While it's plausible that a double-bus play could have happened, I find it extremely unlikely due to a) the animosity between the two and b) the type of case (non-allignment indicative tells) that EMP was pushing.
I don't know about Gamma, and I'll have to read him a bit today. However, it is very difficult to believe he is mafia based on Sonia's behavior.
My slot is town. I can't really say anything else about it.

[hapahauli]

Now... If you have to lynch my slot because Josh's play is so bad, I understand. I am willing to go down if Sonia is lynched with fire next cycle.

Her D4 play is

THAT

egregious.

[hapahauli]

VOTE: xSoniaNevermindx

[hapahauli]

I'm catching up a bit on Gamma's filter, and I feel good about him being town. His filter seems very confrontational, he is direct and to the point, and he seemed very consistently suspicious of EMP throughout the game. He is not afraid to call people stupid or dumb, and is generally interested in pushing his own mafia reads. On behavior, everything looks good. On voting, nothing looks suspicious.

On to Aris.

[xSoniaNevermindx]

I guess were getting srs now hm Okay give me a moment
...this is gonna be fun

[hapahauli]

Aris looks good. Real good.

Honestly, I'm with TF here and Emp pushing this shitty reasoning so hard is making me scumread him significantly.

I've had enough of this 1v1.
VOTE: Emp

In the initial debate over who to lynch last cycle, Aris is involved in the town discussion. He initially believes Emp could be town (Quote 1), but then suddenly turns on Emp to call him mafia (Quote 2). This reads very genuine to me, and discounts a mafia bussing attempt quite heavily. It doesn't make a lot of sense for a potential mafia Ari to give himself a valid excuse not to vote Emp, and then basically push him to the grave with a vote that swings the momentum in favor of the Emp lynch heavily.

Also...
post 2376, xSoniaNevermindx"]The want to hammer before my V/LA is quite tempting but I think it'd be nice to comeback refreshed so I'ma head off cya all laters![/quote]Don't wanna hammer your scumbuddy for cred? Ballsy.[/quote]

i leik

[hapahauli]

I guess were getting srs now hm Okay give me a moment
...this is gonna be fun

Mafia is a game we love to hate and hate to love.

[xSoniaNevermindx]

Oooo you're 0/2 such a shame I can't wait to destroy your theory piece by piece let us start part 2 of the game shall we?