Newbie 1769: Happy New Year! (Post-Game)

[cassielle]

GAYREEN MASTERPOST:

gayreen joins late at post #85. NAI intro though it starts an early pattern of high fluff low content

gayreen is NOT on the TB wagon from the outset, see #87. also #91 is highly defensive of TB. pay attention to this spot.

post #98 casts shade at schadd_ without actually making a specific accusation, and establishes early on: player sees voting as immediate intent to lynch -- i.e., they will not vote without a very good reason!

#101 is a response to iirc gbT pointing out that if youre going to make accusations in general, you should be prepared to vote. the response is to vote schadd_??? this is a very sheepish course of action without actually looking like sheeping, because its diametrically opposed to prior feelings about voting! its also practically a naked vote -- the reasoning is almost but not quite OMGUS (since he wasnt schadd_'s target). this is why i was thinking noobtown, despite stated experience offsite!

#103: when questioned, cant come up with a very good explanation, admits it probably doesnt mean much in forum. #106 says that hes just going to leave the vote where it is despite implying acceptance of most counterarguments.

#107 implies scum mindset: asking about townreads and why no ones talking about them. remember, scum know everything.

#122 is fluffy, and theres a low content value on a post-by-post basis at this point. the posts are avging ~8-ish? words per post and include the 3 word "wow, thanks rask" and 4 word "ok, im back again".

#137 is a sudden jump in content at a critical point and a CRITICAL break in character for GAYreen. GAYreen asks about putting the l-1 vote on TB here. note the following: 87 and 91 imply that he DOES NOT BUY potential arguments vs. TB. there is no change by this point, nothing has come up implying he changed his mind. and #101 states a wariness/dislike of naked votes, when schadd_'s vote arguably was higher content than GAYreen's uhh... intent to l-1? (its not even l-1 vote or intent to hammer, its like the hammer vote and l-1 got mixed up and he was stating intent to l-1) this post (#137) is WILDLY out of character with previous actions, in a way that is, ok, NAI -- but if you parse it town, says badtown, and if you parse it scum feels p damn scummy.

#140 reinforces this massive break in character. WHAT THE HELL is going on here, if youre reading this through from town perspective?

#145 backs off a bit but says "it's a pressure thing" -- no rask was def right and i should have paid more attention to this and im a moron tbh. THIS HERE is where i put my foot down on GAYreen's slot. the fact that -Grey- was able to force a repeat (!!!) of this behavior in terms of forcing a claim out of someone without actually putting all the pressure on them (in fact letting me drive the wagon, i did not want a claim and i was at a total loss when a claim popped up) makes me suspect them, but ill get to that in the second part of my post.

#160: tb claims, GAYreen immediately drops all that supposed pressure (y'know, on a slot he previously stated having absolutely no suspicion of!) and drops to fluffposts. unvotes schadd_ @ #169 saying the reason for voting him has been disproved (it hasnt lol).

#197 continues casting shade at schadd_. it IS a light towntell for noobs but leans NAI for experienced players. REMINDER: GAYREEN IS NOT A NOOB. the shade-casting continues in #199 and #202, #202 is buzzwordy, and the remaining 6 posts are nearly contentless except for #361 trying to cast doubt on creature's conftown status.

guys, i want to move that pressure onto -Grey-, seriously. yes the mistakes stated so far are someone elses, and arguably shouldnt be held against the slot, but creature stated awhile back iirc: if a slot seems scummy at first and later looks more town, its PROBABLY still scum. im vibing with that statement now. im gonna make a -Grey- masterpost next to back this up tho. consider moving votes around, please.

p-edit: no youre cool shade. ill get back to you as soon as i wrap up my -grey- masterpost. for now: wallposts are good! but its better the more /you/ type. quotes are great but id rather have your text to read than a copy of text i can just scroll up to read, yeah?

[Shade]

I didn't quote myself.

I quoted parts of your post but accidentally put my own answers inside its text.

[cassielle]

i know. thats what i was saying -- id rather have more of your own text than quotes of any sort. i can always scroll up to read quotes, i cant always drag more text out of you :p

[cassielle]

-GREY- MASTERPOST:

#530 intro post. high in character but contentless. NAI.

#534: FIRST post worth commenting on??? commenting on MBG's list at 239, not saying a word about those weird ass claims and such prior? arguably this is NAI leaning town but im suspicious af about there being nothing to comment on from 135 to 160-ish just for example. #535 still leaning on MBG but it is valid and in order here.

#538: contentless expression of confusion at one of rask's lists. #539 is vaguely towny. leans on mbg for more info. can someone tell me what they think about the info hes pressing for here? is there even a point to asking that in that post? im uncertain, i tend to lean toward yoinking maximum info out of EVERYONE for exactly the reason of what i am doing rn. either way #541 drops it.

#544 is contentless expression of dislike toward SOMETHING to do with creature. what? who knows!

#547 is vaguely scummy imo -- expresses disgust with mbg pulling vote off player to be replaced who had prior contributed literally almost nothing. its giving the newcomer a fair chance to make their name lol, that is the correct motorcycle when lurkers replace out (obv diff players are a diff story)

#548 is defensive of GAYreen. the whole awareness of sheeping thing is consistent throughout matts ISO, even if he engages in it. its, as i said before, practically his playstyle to follow the town leader while loudly expressing said player could lead everyone right off a cliff. why is -Grey- defensive when they read #369?

#551 is fair, multiple others have stated the same at about the same point.

#552 seems to be a scumslip? town can easily see the paranoia that would lead to #431, no one else questioned it, even mbg seemed to take it in stride, treat it as fair.

#554 seems to also imply scumminess -- scum skim, town deep-reads. on a skim my list there is bad. the shallowest of deep-reads reveals i imply that is to be expected. context in thread also does.

#558 is an interesting readslist that i wanted to ask some questions on but got caught up in getting the noose on rask. by now my main concern (mbg's placement) is no longer a thing, but thats more my fault for getting a bit tunnelled looking for an out from the apparent kumbayaland gameplay than it is anything else.

#568 reads as completely unaware of the thread. rakkar DID NOT POST. even just clicking the activity overview will tell you exactly what changed there lol. this is a clear scumslip from where im standing.

#570 i can practically hear "target locked." thats a bit of hindsight but jfc

#571 dismisses a valid line of reasoning. in fact, a line of reasoning used by mbg and accepted by grey at that point as well! see #541

#578 is CONVINCING REASONING. the speed at which it came out of fuckin nowhere was not. i recall feeling this way when i first saw it, but i was (and to a slightly reduced degree, am!) so convinced of rask flipping red that i just sat on it (see my feelings on mbg as poss. scumteam member in #604)

#582 casts shade but doesnt claim towntell or scumtell, just "tell". mbg's noob, implies NOOBtell to me. #582 feels light anti-town to me -- either greys ignored everything up to this point while reading through or hes scumteam, otherwise hed realize hes probably seeing mbg's repeatedly stated inexperience with mafia lol

#586 is further contentless shade casting on mbg. while i agree its indicative of something, i did not and do not agree its enough to even FoS mbg rn, we need to focus on our bigger scumbags. its also an ULTRA-easy read, which is why i was dismissing peoples concerns with gayreen changing mind on the tb l-1 -- thats a copout read, it stands out, grabs attention and means nothing. scum can use it to pretend they have real opinions

#592 is stating the obvious in a dickish manner. arguably nai but im leaning scum with it combined with the rest.

#605 is fair. i agreed then, i agree now.

#609 feels like its pushing for an immediate lynch. its trying to corner rask into a "well thats scum claim" position. i even gave rask an out from that in 610 because W T F. i dont mind that sort of play but we have A FULL WEEK OF DAYTIME, you corner someone that way on the last day of day phase rofl you dont do that shit midway through, wtf??? scum af here

#629 dismisses at least three separate concerns with mbg as "nah its all cool" including 582-592! wtf? NAI but mbg and -grey- are going to be opposite factions p sure

#637 why did it take this long for this? why? rask claimed a full HOUR prior. W T F. and why the hell put pressure on tb again? what is the point here? what more is going to come of this? i make this point several times around here, saying "no more than l-2" and gbT and -Grey- are BOTH dismissive of my point here, but gbT is trying to allay concerns while -Grey- (#644) is sayingthat everything points to TB=scum anyway so who gives a fuck. S C U M

someone convince me im reading GAYreen+-Grey- wrong pls? Creature? anyone? im p sure you guys cant.

[mattblackguy]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=66768

Alright I think I found something pretty interesting. Post #14 Rask says :

Although the thing about roleblocker and claiming isn't going to apply here since we're goon/goon.
I think in this case if you're l-1 late in the day and you think you'll get lynched anyways you should claim tracker so I know who to target
but if you think you can survive and that people can swing to another lynch claiming VT gives you a chance at people reconsidering

Before Rask claimed tracker in this game he asked if there was anything to change Cass' mind or if she was just going to lynch him anyway. Cass responded saying she doesn't think Rask is capable on convincing her that he's not scum. And then immediately afterwards Rask claims tracker. This lines up 100% perfectly with Rask's scum play in previous games.

So basically I don't believe Rask's tracker claim at all.

[mattblackguy]

VOTE: Rask

That can't just be coincidence.

[mattblackguy]

im feeling the same way about the defense dismissal. i also agree with mbg that 8 days is good time to keep up the scumhunting. rask is just like, digging this giant hole atm, not accepting pro-town advice early and its hurting him now on top of everything else. i think that wagon isnt at risk of losing momentum when the time comes and we can focus on finding scumbuddies. ill let you guys direct that tho because i dont mind giving rask more airtime to bury himself atm

Are you 100% saying you're not going to reconsider trying to lynch me today?

1: claim could have been thinking he was at l-1 and not being around. ive read my share of noob games here and that is nooot uncommon -- someones not home, theyre at l-1 without intent, they claim and beg people not to hammer before they get home.

2: you never said a word about the underreaction, you let him lurk and moved to rakkar as your prime suspect lol

3: im saying that i dont think youre capable of convincing me you arent scum. if you want to try, you got all the rest of d1 to do so. i recommend working on an ironclad defense and making a masterpost on it instead of the fluffspam

Okay fuck you.

I'm tracker.

Stop wasting your time idiots.

[cassielle]

im cool with this but im reading -grey- as scumbuddy. everyone was on rask, rask was weakest link, grey leans harder and rask claims at l-2 (rofl remember all them arguments and confusion about tb claiming at l-2 hooboy) then backs tf off and goes right back after the EASIEST GODDAMN LYNCH IN GAME

i want your opinion on -grey- atm

[Aeronaut]

- VoteCount 1.13 -
With 9 players still alive, it's 5 to lynch!

[L-5] mattblackguy -
[L-3] -Grey- - Creature, Cassielle
[L-5] schadd -
[L-5] Shade -
[L-4] Raskolnikov - mattblackguy
[L-1] ThinkBig - schadd_, gigabyteTroubadour, Raskolnikov, -Grey-
[L-5] gigabyteTroubadour -
[L-5] Creature -
[L-5] Cassielle -

Not Voting - , Shade, ThinkBig

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2017-01-18 20:00:00)

[cassielle]

MOD why are rask and shade at l-4 with no votes :p

[ThinkBig]

@MOD: You missed mbg's vote.

[ThinkBig]

When I get home this evening from work, I will expand on my read list.

[Creature]

Let's do like this if your role is a counterclaim to Rask's:

Jailkeeper and Tracker, counterclaim immediatelly.

Cop, wait a day to get results and then counterclaim the next day (don't wait until D3 to counterclaim, we won't buy your claim here).

[schadd_]

This lines up 100% perfectly with Rask's scum play in previous games.

i would say this is only valid if he doesn't do this in town games. he claimed at a point that it's intuitive to do so if he is in fact the tracker

[cassielle]

CURRENT READLIST:

TOWN
creature <--- do never lynch this slot.
gbT, schadd_ <--- i wouldnt bet my life that they wouldnt flip red, but im below 50% on that. about 70-75% confident of town.
mbg, shade <--- i am about at 50% with these slots. flip a coin for alignment imo
tb <--- scum stink. 70-75% confidence.
rask, -grey- <--- 90-95% confidence of scum. consider lynch
RESERVED <--- do always lynch these slots
SCUM

[cassielle]

crap forgot my reread of mbg. damnit

TOWN
creature <--- do never lynch this slot.
gbT, schadd_, mbg <--- i wouldnt bet my life that they wouldnt flip red, but im below 50% on that. about 70-75% confident of town.
shade <--- i am about at 50% with this slot. flip a coin for alignment imo
tb <--- scum stink. 70-75% confidence.
rask, -grey- <--- 90-95% confidence of scum. consider lynch
RESERVED <--- do always lynch these slots
SCUM

[mattblackguy]

i want your opinion on -grey- atm

I do think Grey could be scum, but only really if Rask flips town. He seems like he was pushing too much on Rask for them to be a team. Pushed pretty hard on Rask in #570, #568, and has Rask has top scumread in #558. Why do you think he would push Rask so much if he was scum with him? I guess it's possible that he thought Rask was a goner and just jumped on the wagon, but still in the case lynching his mafia partner on day 1 makes the game extremely hard for him to win. I think if he really was in a team with Rask he would try to save Rask not push him farther down. That's how I'm seeing it anyway.

[Creature]

Rask claimed tracker, that doesn't affect your reads?

[cassielle]

no, it doesnt. its screaming at me DESPITE the claim. i want to shift my opinion of him but i am not feeling it, im quite confident in a rask=scum world and i felt this way even before mbg mentioned meta (i was unaware of that meta)

[cassielle]

that said i do NOT feel like lynching rask today necessarily unless we get that counterclaim. risk is risk and unnecessary risk is unnecessary risk, period. i feel rask is NK-bait and a liability at best and coasting scum at worst though.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i kind of just need to put my head against a wall and meditate. not sure what i believe in any more

going to catch up starting from post 659 in a bit but like (posting here so i know what post i left off at)

this game is really fucking surreal. feel like this table is going to bond together from it in the end.

rask is a bad lynch unless the PR wants to CC. honestly it should be up to them, as long as they don't wait until LYLO or MYLO (when we have no mislynches left).

matt bringing up the meta gives him huge townpoints btw, I knew of it but I don't read it as AI because tracker is the safest claim whether you're a town PR or scum. i really cannot see newbie scum deciding to dig up dirt on Rask like that to discredit him, it's town.

[cassielle]

im really waiting for someone to go over my masterposts and say something about them more than anything else. was hoping thatd be you gbT

im trying to combine infodumps (ISO summary) with analysis (my take on what that ISO summary means). that way you can have my masterpost in one tab and the players ISO in the other, tab back and forth and get a good "feel" for where im coming from EVEN IF YOU DISAGREE. and IF you disagree you can pinpoint where i went wrong and offer your take. even if we never see eye to eye it is a great reference tool for where im coming from imo and helps you figure a way to parse other peoples reads if you dont understand them

at the same time im uncertain of my analysis because it feels sparse in parts, so i want other people to call me out so i can get the motivation to defend it OR see a diff interpretation that i can agree with

i owe shade a response but i dont want to take focus off of -grey- atm so im choosingto sit on my hands until someone says something about my take there

[-Grey-]

If you have any interest in me responding to your post about me, redo it with post tags because I'm not wading through this site without links on my phone.

[cassielle]

i had to think about this a bit.

on one hand -- i think giving you a chance to defend yourself is a bad idea rn. i think youre a good enough player that if i give youthe opportunity,you could wiggle out of any accusation no matter how strong and regardless of alignment.

on the other hand, thats not pro-town. thats anti-town. its only common sense to give you this opportunity, REGARDLESS of how strong your play is, because town will be able to get out of those accusations effortlessly and scum will flail a bit under the pressure.

gimme a bit to repost. i dont think its the right way to do this, but id feel like badtown if i didnt.

[cassielle]

-GREY- MASTERPOST:

530: intro post. high in character but contentless. NAI.

534: FIRST post worth commenting on??? commenting on MBG's list at 239, not saying a word about those weird ass claims and such prior? arguably this is NAI leaning town but im suspicious af about there being nothing to comment on from 135 to 160-ish just for example. #535 still leaning on MBG but it is valid and in order here.

538: contentless expression of confusion at one of rask's lists. #539 is vaguely towny. leans on mbg for more info. can someone tell me what they think about the info hes pressing for here? is there even a point to asking that in that post? im uncertain, i tend to lean toward yoinking maximum info out of EVERYONE for exactly the reason of what i am doing rn. either way #541 drops it.

#544 is contentless expression of dislike toward SOMETHING to do with creature. what? who knows!

#547 is vaguely scummy imo -- expresses disgust with mbg pulling vote off player to be replaced who had prior contributed literally almost nothing. its giving the newcomer a fair chance to make their name lol, that is the correct motorcycle when lurkers replace out (obv diff players are a diff story)

#548 is defensive of GAYreen. the whole awareness of sheeping thing is consistent throughout matts ISO, even if he engages in it. its, as i said before, practically his playstyle to follow the town leader while loudly expressing said player could lead everyone right off a cliff. why is -Grey- defensive when they read #369?

#551 is fair, multiple others have stated the same at about the same point.

#552 seems to be a scumslip? town can easily see the paranoia that would lead to #431, no one else questioned it, even mbg seemed to take it in stride, treat it as fair.

#554 seems to also imply scumminess -- scum skim, town deep-reads. on a skim my list there is bad. the shallowest of deep-reads reveals i imply that is to be expected. context in thread also does.

#558 is an interesting readslist that i wanted to ask some questions on but got caught up in getting the noose on rask. by now my main concern (mbg's placement) is no longer a thing, but thats more my fault for getting a bit tunnelled looking for an out from the apparent kumbayaland gameplay than it is anything else.

#568 reads as completely unaware of the thread. rakkar DID NOT POST. even just clicking the activity overview will tell you exactly what changed there lol. this is a clear scumslip from where im standing.

#570 i can practically hear "target locked." thats a bit of hindsight but jfc

#571 dismisses a valid line of reasoning. in fact, a line of reasoning used by mbg and accepted by grey at that point as well! see #541

#578 is CONVINCING REASONING. the speed at which it came out of fuckin nowhere was not. i recall feeling this way when i first saw it, but i was (and to a slightly reduced degree, am!) so convinced of rask flipping red that i just sat on it (see my feelings on mbg as poss. scumteam member in #604)

#582 casts shade but doesnt claim towntell or scumtell, just "tell". mbg's noob, implies NOOBtell to me. #582 feels light anti-town to me -- either greys ignored everything up to this point while reading through or hes scumteam, otherwise hed realize hes probably seeing mbg's repeatedly stated inexperience with mafia lol

#586 is further contentless shade casting on mbg. while i agree its indicative of something, i did not and do not agree its enough to even FoS mbg rn, we need to focus on our bigger scumbags. its also an ULTRA-easy read, which is why i was dismissing peoples concerns with gayreen changing mind on the tb l-1 -- thats a copout read, it stands out, grabs attention and means nothing. scum can use it to pretend they have real opinions

#592 is stating the obvious in a dickish manner. arguably nai but im leaning scum with it combined with the rest.

#605 is fair. i agreed then, i agree now.

#609 feels like its pushing for an immediate lynch. its trying to corner rask into a "well thats scum claim" position. i even gave rask an out from that in 610 because W T F. i dont mind that sort of play but we have A FULL WEEK OF DAYTIME, you corner someone that way on the last day of day phase rofl you dont do that shit midway through, wtf??? scum af here

#629 dismisses at least three separate concerns with mbg as "nah its all cool" including 582-592! wtf? NAI but mbg and -grey- are going to be opposite factions p sure

#637 why did it take this long for this? why? rask claimed a full HOUR prior. W T F. and why the hell put pressure on tb again? what is the point here? what more is going to come of this? i make this point several times around here, saying "no more than l-2" and gbT and -Grey- are BOTH dismissive of my point here, but gbT is trying to allay concerns while -Grey- (#644) is sayingthat everything points to TB=scum anyway so who gives a fuck. S C U M

someone convince me im reading GAYreen+-Grey- wrong pls? Creature? anyone? im p sure you guys cant.

done