Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)


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Post Post #1330 (isolation #200) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:20 pm

Post by Kairal »

Even if Dier is scum he has 2 buddies. He's a good player and if he's scum our best bet is that a flipped scum has posts that make it clear they're scum.
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Post Post #1334 (isolation #201) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:26 pm

Post by Kairal »

I also don't like anyone's chances of convincing massive not to vote me. He's tunneling so hard he'd still vote me even if I revealed as innocent child.
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Post Post #1336 (isolation #202) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:30 pm

Post by Kairal »

I dunno I was feeling pretty suspicious of AJ's insistence that massive can't be cop. Now that I'm beginning to doubt it too I'm not so sure. His play the rest of the game has felt pretty town to me.

I'm definitely not voting for him if the alternative is one of flubber, culted or Naomi.
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Post Post #1337 (isolation #203) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:31 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1335, BlackVoid wrote:Still reading. I read everything so it's going to take me a while. Can we have one more person vote extension please? Massive? Flubber? Culted? Dierfire?

By the way, no comments on my mass-claim proposal? We're a day off from lylo so unless there's some part of site meta I don't understand, now
is
the optimal time for mass-claim.
I've proposed it numerous times. I'm VT. Pretty sure everyone else who hasn't claimed is too.
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Post Post #1338 (isolation #204) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:35 pm

Post by Kairal »

On that topic I should mention that I'm going to be very unlikely to believe any claims that come out tomorrow, well if it is lylo. If you do have a role today is the day to claim it.
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Post Post #1342 (isolation #205) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:39 pm

Post by Kairal »

Yeah culted fits really well in a team with flubber and massive. I'm moving my vote there, though again I'm pretty ok with a flubber vote too.

VOTE: Culted
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Post Post #1344 (isolation #206) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:55 pm

Post by Kairal »

Mini 1848 has an odd cop but no even. (also has a jailkeeper)

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68980

Now I still think it's very possible that we have both. It is possible for us to only have one though, if that's the point of contention. I could see 3 goons, a JK and an odd night cop being reasonably balanced. It's also a potential explanation for why massive would be sure that we don't have an even cop, yet believe that we might buy it.
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Post Post #1345 (isolation #207) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:55 pm

Post by Kairal »

Anyway Aj role claim please? If you're holding something back for tomorrow that's gonna be too late
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Post Post #1348 (isolation #208) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:43 pm

Post by Kairal »

You lynched the guy who's name is Always Innocent? tut tut.
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Post Post #1351 (isolation #209) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:53 pm

Post by Kairal »

Mm yeah I guess realistically Flubber is the one that's got a chance of going ahead.

VOTE: Flubber
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Post Post #1355 (isolation #210) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:46 pm

Post by Kairal »

Dier hasn't posted in nearly 4 days :/
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Post Post #1369 (isolation #211) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:32 pm

Post by Kairal »

I'd be more inclined to take that seriously from someone who isn't voting me entirely based on OMGUS.

So why do I think you're scum? I've explained a few times but lets go through it. Firstly and most strongly it's just process of elimination. I have town reads on Dier, IamI and AJ. I'm willing to entertain the idea that massive is lying but for personally unless we get pretty strong evidence otherwise I'm inclined to take role claims at face value. Even if massive was lying he'd be very unlikely to clear a scum buddy so BV is town. That leaves 3 people of which you are one.

From here I decided to try and narrow it down by looking for patterns of interaction. Naomi is flinging a lot of shade at Flubber, whilst you are acting exactly like I would expect Flubber's scum partner to act. Moreover looking back through the game you frequently avoid interacting with Flubber despite the two of you having a pretty strong scum read on Jin. You never really provide a good explanation for that read either.

Then as I noted earlier you happen to make an argument that we should all be voting Newman whilst massive is the main wagon in town. The timing on this is exactly the timing I would expect from scum trying to divert a wagon on one of their buddies onto a townie.

None of this makes me certain you are scum. However your actions are consistent with scum motives and you've contributed very little to town.
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Post Post #1370 (isolation #212) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:43 pm

Post by Kairal »

You know just rereading your ISO... the entirety of the first two days you never have a scum read who hasn't been confirmed town at this point. Never. It's all Io, Newman and Jin. We all have bad reads sometimes and none of us are coming out of this game looking good. Still I think it's particularly notable that you only ever scumread people that we now know are town. I don't think the same thing is true of any other people left alive.
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Post Post #1374 (isolation #213) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:59 pm

Post by Kairal »

If you can find a player I don't have interactions with I'd be curious to see it.

I picked up your defense of massive because I was specifically looking to see if anyone tried to swing the wagon away from massive when he had the most votes. Guess who did?

Jin got lynched because I noticed a pattern of votes between you and Flubber and decided to see if you were onto something or if you were scum colluding. Results suggest the latter

I'm hedging because I'm town and don't have access to everyone's alignment. I think you are the most likely player to be scum, but no I'm not certain. I don't have a smoking gun or anything.

I am however finding it hard to believe you are arguing in good faith and legitimately don't see where I've pointed out your scum motives. Repeatedly.
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Post Post #1375 (isolation #214) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:02 pm

Post by Kairal »

I don't really think it makes sense for IamI to push Dier- he's so widely town read it feels like a poor move for scum.
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Post Post #1381 (isolation #215) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:13 pm

Post by Kairal »

Hmm though I'm finding it hard to justify my town read on IamI now. going back through his Iso he spends a lot of time pushing Jin too.

I'm sure that Dier is town and there's been no push from anyone except IamI. I don't think that's useful for scum- it's not a lynch likely to happen.

However if the plan was always to run out the clock, then IamI wouldn't need to get a mislynch.

I do think he can't be scum if culted is, and a lot of culted's push on me looks pretty scummy.
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Post Post #1382 (isolation #216) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:15 pm

Post by Kairal »

Dier the first thing you should do is vote for an extension so we have some breathing room.
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Post Post #1387 (isolation #217) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:29 pm

Post by Kairal »

That refers to Dier.

I'm wavering a bit on this scum team. Reread Flubber's Iso- if he's just manufacturing a fight with massive he's doing a really good job of it. I think it really is more likely that they aren't scum buddies. They both line up with culted individually but don't fit together well at all.

That leaves the third member of the team unaccounted for. Bleh
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Post Post #1388 (isolation #218) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:29 pm

Post by Kairal »

@Gamma. Sweet. How long do we have till deadline then?
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Post Post #1389 (isolation #219) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:30 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1064, Flubbernugget wrote:I've only attacked your play in a non discriminatory way so I have no clue what you're going on about

You can't play this poorly, piss someone off on it, and then expect it to pass as some sort of poe reaction test...thing.
Also this post exactly mirror's my feelings on massive's current arguments.
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Post Post #1393 (isolation #220) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:42 pm

Post by Kairal »

Mass claim: Massive is even cop. Naomi, Aj, culted and I are VT.
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Post Post #1396 (isolation #221) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:49 pm

Post by Kairal »

Is there some particular reason for doing this in order?
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Post Post #1402 (isolation #222) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 7:01 pm

Post by Kairal »

That's 6/9 I think? Unless I'm missing it we still need claims from flubber, IamI and BV
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Post Post #1403 (isolation #223) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 7:02 pm

Post by Kairal »

Also I feel vaguely compelled to point out that I am in fact a guy.
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Post Post #1407 (isolation #224) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 7:10 pm

Post by Kairal »

Just to be clear you think that was a genuine slip and we actually have one JK, and two half cops against a strongman encryptor and rolecop? That seems extremely scumsided
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Post Post #1438 (isolation #225) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:51 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1434, Dierfire wrote:
@Kairal

Could you direct me to the best case that you've ever made as Town against a Mafia player?
Um... Well I haven't played many games. This is only my third on the site and it's true that I haven't necessarily been the best at scum hunting.

I got lynched Day 1 in the first (I was town). In the second... well we never caught one of the scum at all really. We only won due to power roles.

That's part of why I'm wavering on these reads so much I guess. I don't really have a good track record.
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Post Post #1439 (isolation #226) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:56 am

Post by Kairal »

For example as massive notes I've been pretty inconsistent on his claim. On the one hand he's been my top scum read for ages. On the other hand nobody's countered his claim and I still don't really see the need for a scum team to bother with this gambit.

The Day 1 play he and Aj are discussing is a perfect example of being sort of weird but not definitely weird enough to make something of. Normally you'd expect that massive would A) counterclaim and get the scum killed B) decide he should hide his role and sort it out later. Instead he does this weird hybrid where he votes him and says he doesn't believe it but without claiming. This means nobody votes Newman so it doesn't help catch scum, but would also stand out to a scum team paying attention.

However it doesn't serve any useful scum purpose either. It's just weird.
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Post Post #1441 (isolation #227) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:19 pm

Post by Kairal »

Hah. Fine whatever. It's not worth lynching or even really discussing massive today. If he is scum he should be the last one we go for.

Culted/Flubber/Naomi

That's who we should be discussing.
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Post Post #1444 (isolation #228) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:30 pm

Post by Kairal »

Unfortunately I guess I've already said everything I have to say about it.

Culted fits well into scum teams, hasn't been very helpful and has a pretty bad push on me.

Flubber: I feel like his Jin stuff feels like collaboration with Culted. I find it odd as noted earlier that he spends so much time being suspicious of both massive and Mini. Given how much time those two argued Day 1 you'd think he'd be townreading one of them right? Amusingly I'm in the same spot. I haven't liked a lot of massive's content and a lot of Flubber's reactions mirror mine. I think I'd probably prefer to lynch culted and then come back for flubber once it's confirmed that culted is scum.

Naomi: Her reading order makes things tricky. It's reasonable to expect some odd opinions from reading current stuff and old stuff while missing the middle. I can't really justify it but I'm getting a gut read of town here. Her predecessors are both pretty hard to read I think. Cloud's nonsense is bad play for both alignments, Shadow's lurkiness seemed like it could be scummy but he replaced out for it suggesting it wasn't a deliberate strategy. The main thing is that she doesn't fit with culted or with flubber unless scum decided to bus already. Which is think is not optimal but it's not impossible either.
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Post Post #1446 (isolation #229) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:32 pm

Post by Kairal »

Man that post was days ago. I've been thinking a lot since then. At the time I was sure about your cop claim and Naomi hadn't posted much so I wasn't as sure about her.
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Post Post #1447 (isolation #230) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:40 pm

Post by Kairal »

The other thing about Flubber is that he took massive's cop claim in stride. As I did initially as well. Given we were both scum reading massive, and I'm town I should probably assume he's town as well?

Hmm. I also can't really decide whether or not scum would be more likely to accept the claim or dispute it. I've already decided that flubber and massive are very unlikely to be partners. Now scum flubber would therefore know that massive is telling the truth so he might think it's not worth arguing about. There are still enough people with a bit of suspicion that he can get lynched. (me or Naomi, who I think is also an unlikely teammate).

However scum benefit from confusion- a town that strongly believes massive is a town that has fewer suspects and thus more chance of finding a scum team.

Town flubber is probably caught between his initial distrust of massive and his willingness to accept claims. So yeah I'm not sure
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Post Post #1449 (isolation #231) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:47 pm

Post by Kairal »

Yeah I don't want to repeat my mistake with Jin.

UNVOTE: Flubber
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Post Post #1451 (isolation #232) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:55 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 983, Shadow_step wrote:So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
I'l get caught up during the weekend.
Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?
Ok so my main scumread on culted comes from him hving useful interactions for a scum team with Flubber and massive. I'm not scum reading either of them right now it's a little hard to justify a culted read.

Do you think scum shadow would post this about me if we were on a team culted?
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Post Post #1452 (isolation #233) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:56 pm

Post by Kairal »

Not bad advice Naomi.
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Post Post #1454 (isolation #234) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:19 pm

Post by Kairal »

This is fair.

I'm thinking.
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Post Post #1455 (isolation #235) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:46 pm

Post by Kairal »

Dier has kindly reminded me that my reads suck. However this game we've had 4 major wagons- massive, Io, Newman and Jin. We've definitely been wrong about 3 of those and I believe we're wrong about the 4th. I also have no really clear reads on anyone despite it being Day 3.

This suggests to me that we are dealing with a very good scum team.

Therefore rather than trying to scumread them individually I think the better plan is to look for a pattern.

Specifically a good scum team will never want to be caught holding the same position. I suspect we will almost never (or maybe never at all) find an argument that all 3 scum players agree with. So I'm going to look through the thread and see if I can find a pattern that fits.
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Post Post #1456 (isolation #236) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:56 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 867, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Vote Count 1.12 LYNCH

6 - Io: Dierfire, MiniDeathStar, Aj The Epic, HellloooNewman, -Grey-, I Am Innocent, culted

0 - Dierfire:
1 - HellloooNewman: massive
0 - MiniDeathStar:
0 - Kairal:
0 - Flubbernugget:
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Secret Agent Jin:
0 - Shadow_Step:
0 - -Grey-:
0 - culted:
4 - massive: Flubbernugget, Secret Agent Jin, Io, Kairal
0 - Aj The Epic:
0 -No Lynch:
Not voting: Shadow_Step
culted FoSes Io, Dierfire, HellloooNewman, MiniDeathStar, Kairal, Flubbernugget, I am Innocent, Secret Agent Jin, Shadow_Step, -Grey-, massive, and Aj The Epic
MiniDeathStar FoSes Flubbernugget, Io, massive, and HellloooNewman
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is (expired on 2016-12-19 23:30:00)

Alright now I think scum are particularly unlikely to want to be caught on a town wagon- no way all 3 of them voted for Io. There must be at least one scum who didn't vote for Io.

That means: Me,massive, flubber, Naomi
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Post Post #1457 (isolation #237) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:01 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 960, mhsmith0 wrote:
Votecount 2.02

I Am Innocent (1)
,
Secret Agent Jin (6)

massive (1)
,
Not Voting (3)
, , ,



With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch!
[/size]
For this one it's Dier, BV, Naomi and AJ
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Post Post #1458 (isolation #238) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:18 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 782, MiniDeathStar wrote:
December 15, 2016 - 12:00 PM (GMT)

Day 1


In the prolonged absense of the mayor, Gamma Emerald, the citizens of Murdertown tentatively
recounted the vote slips themselves and updated the bulletin board.


HellloooNewman (L-1)
: culted, Aj the Epic, -Grey-, I Am Innocent, Shadow_step, Kairal
massive (L-4)
: Flubbernugget, Secret Agent Jin, Io
Io (L-5)
: Dierfire, MiniDeathStar
MiniDeathStar (L-6)
: HellloooNewman
Secret Agent Jin (L-6)
: massive

Not voting:


With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.


Deadline for Day 1 actions:

December 20, 2016 - 3:30 AM (GMT)
You have (expired on 2016-12-20 03:30:00) to discuss and decide on a lynch.

Unofficial Vote Count
Not an official VC but I'm pretty sure I checked it at the time and it was right.

Not actually a lynch so the minority this time is: culted, Aj, IamI, Naomi and me
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Post Post #1460 (isolation #239) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:26 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 529, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Vote Count 1.08

1 - Io: Dierfire
0 - Dierfire:
1 - HellloooNewman: culted
2 - MiniDeathStar: Shadow_Step, massive
0 - Kairal:
0 - Flubbernugget:
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Secret Agent Jin:
1 - Shadow_Step: HellloooNewman
1 - -Grey-: I Am Innocent
0 - culted:
5 - massive: Flubbernugget, MiniDeathStar, -Grey-, Secret Agent Jin, Kairal
1 - Aj The Epic: Io
0 -No Lynch:
Not voting: Aj The Epic
culted FoSes Io, Dierfire, HellloooNewman, MiniDeathStar, Kairal, Flubbernugget, I am Innocent, Secret Agent Jin, Shadow_Step, -Grey-, massive, and Aj The Epic
MiniDeathStar FoSes Flubbernugget, Io, and massive
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is (expired on 2016-12-19 23:30:00)

This one is me, Flubber or BV.
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Post Post #1461 (isolation #240) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:27 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1459, Aj The Epic wrote:...What? You went from people off wagons to now people on wagons
In theory there should at least one scum on and off each wagon. I'm just looking at the minority (since that's easier to narrow down)
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Post Post #1462 (isolation #241) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:31 pm

Post by Kairal »

Now no VC for this last one. massive's cop claim. I think scum are unlikely to all be on one side of this argument- especially since as I said earlier scum could consider either position to be beneficial.

With no VC I'm just going on memory but I believe it's: Aj and Naomi against, culted, flubber, Dier and IamI for. I guess you can just chuck me into whichever camp.
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Post Post #1463 (isolation #242) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:19 pm

Post by Kairal »

Ok so cleaning the list up a little for my own benefit I've removed BV, massive and myself.

Io lynch: Flubber or Naomi must be scum. On the majority side: one of Dier, culted, IamI and AJ must be scum

Jin lynch: Dier, AJ or Naomi must be scum. On the flipside: one of culted, IamI and flubber.

Newman (not an actual lynch so I have less confidence on this one): Culted, Aj, IamI. The other side is Flubber or Dier.

Massive (also not a lynch and not at L-1 so even less confidence): Flubber. The other 5 against of course. That being: AJ, culted, Dier,

Cop claim (not a lynch but I still have some confidence in it because everyone but myself has been fairly definitive with their positions): Naomi, Aj. Alternatively: Flubber Culted, Dier, IamI.
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Post Post #1464 (isolation #243) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:20 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1463, Kairal wrote:Ok so cleaning the list up a little for my own benefit I've removed BV, massive and myself.

Io lynch: Flubber or Naomi must be scum. On the majority side: one of Dier, culted, IamI and AJ must be scum

Jin lynch: Dier, AJ or Naomi must be scum. On the flipside: one of culted, IamI and flubber.

Newman (not an actual lynch so I have less confidence on this one): Culted, Aj, IamI. The other side is Flubber, Dier or Naomi

Massive (also not a lynch and not at L-1 so even less confidence): Flubber. The other 5 against of course. That being: AJ, culted, Dier, IamI or Naomi

Cop claim (not a lynch but I still have some confidence in it because everyone but myself has been fairly definitive with their positions): Naomi, Aj. Alternatively: Flubber Culted, Dier, IamI.
Edit
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Post Post #1465 (isolation #244) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:42 pm

Post by Kairal »

Now... what use is this? I feel like we can say with high confidence that the scum team would not be entirely for Jin or Io's lynch. That rules out any combo consisting entirely of Dier, Culted, IamI and AJ. Jin's lynch rules out culted, Flubber and IamI.

On the other side we can see that Flubber is the only one on massive's lynch (obviously I don't suspect myself). I've criticized that argument previously but I think lining it up with Io's lynch gives it a bit more credence.

Io's lynch tells me that Flubber or Naomi must be scum. The cop argument suggests that Naomi or Aj must be scum. If we lynch Naomi and she's town that implicates two scum.

In short Naomi or Flubber look like a good lynch.
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Post Post #1467 (isolation #245) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:48 pm

Post by Kairal »

Now then. If Naomi is town then Aj and Flubber are buddies. Checking through the list there's nothing that refutes that. Interestingly Flubber and Aj never agree. Not a sure sign of anything but interesting. Also worth noting there's nothing that rules out all Naomi and Flubber being buds.

Anyway it basically comes down to whether or not I want the more likely scum (Flubber) or the greater information (Naomi). I guess I'm fine with either.

I'll go with Naomi I think

VOTE: Naomi
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Post Post #1468 (isolation #246) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:49 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1466, Aj The Epic wrote:Christ that looks like my middle school science fair project.
Uh... did you get high marks for this project? Please say yes.
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Post Post #1470 (isolation #247) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:15 pm

Post by Kairal »

I see. Well I feel reasonably confident that scum won't clearly work as a block. The entire point is to try and find a way to hunt scum that doesn't rely on my reads or views on their interactions since I haven't been confident about that at all so far.

For what it's worth both Flubber and Naomi have been reasonably suspicious today and this different approach seems to indicate that suspicion was well founded.
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Post Post #1471 (isolation #248) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:18 pm

Post by Kairal »

Yeah lets isolate this to one thing at a time. Do you believe that every scum player voted to lynch Io?
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Post Post #1473 (isolation #249) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:47 pm

Post by Kairal »

Hmm so your current thinking is... me massive and flubber? Or are you thinking that massive lied about BV?
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Post Post #1474 (isolation #250) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:49 pm

Post by Kairal »

Hmm unless culted is scum I don't have the votes to get a lynch without a bus. Aj is already voting Flubber.

Well lets play bussing wars - you think I'm on a team with Flubber and I think you're on a team with Flubber. Lets both vote him and see who blinks first.

VOTE: Flubber
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Post Post #1476 (isolation #251) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:03 pm

Post by Kairal »

Seems like we're both fine with a flubber or Naomi vote. Well I think you're less likely to be on a team with Naomi so I'd prefer you to keep voting Flubber.
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Post Post #1477 (isolation #252) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:05 pm

Post by Kairal »

From your perspective if I were scum I'd be bussing either way right? So you should be fine with that.
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Post Post #1480 (isolation #253) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:34 pm

Post by Kairal »

He! He got to where you were yesterday. Yeah that post of yours is an interesting prediction.
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Post Post #1481 (isolation #254) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:35 pm

Post by Kairal »

Haha sorry. For what it's worth I'm voting Flubber. You know if that makes you feel better
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Post Post #1482 (isolation #255) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:36 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1464, Kairal wrote:
In post 1463, Kairal wrote:Ok so cleaning the list up a little for my own benefit I've removed BV, massive and myself.

Io lynch: Flubber or Naomi must be scum. On the majority side: one of Dier, culted, IamI and AJ must be scum

Jin lynch: Dier, AJ or Naomi must be scum. On the flipside: one of culted, IamI and flubber.

Newman (not an actual lynch so I have less confidence on this one): Culted, Aj, IamI and Naomi. The other side is Flubber, Dier

Massive (also not a lynch and not at L-1 so even less confidence): Flubber. The other 5 against of course. That being: AJ, culted, Dier, IamI or Naomi

Cop claim (not a lynch but I still have some confidence in it because everyone but myself has been fairly definitive with their positions): Naomi, Aj. Alternatively: Flubber Culted, Dier, IamI.
Edit
Bleh another edit. Naomi was on the wrong side of the Newman lynch.
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Post Post #1484 (isolation #256) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:42 pm

Post by Kairal »

Unfortunately you are wrong about culted. If we're in luck he's scum and we can still get a flubber lynch.
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Post Post #1485 (isolation #257) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:43 pm

Post by Kairal »

Hmm so both Aj and Naomi are ok with a flubber vote. I guess one of them is bussing. Fine with me!
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Post Post #1488 (isolation #258) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:46 pm

Post by Kairal »

Well that's a lot of words. Firstly: When I said Naomi was wrong about culted I meant that she claimed he had a scumread on Flubber. He doesn't

Secondly the reason I'm so confident about bussing is because I don't actually expect you to do it.

My guess was that you'd find a weak excuse to decide that I'm scum over Flubber. I suspect that you'll succeed in getting me lynched but in doing so it's going to be extremely clear to everyone that you aren't actually willing to lynch Flubber. They'll get both of you. No guarantee they'll get the last scum but hey 2 scum for 1 town is pretty good.
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Post Post #1490 (isolation #259) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:53 pm

Post by Kairal »

Aside from that you seem to be insinuating that I'm manipulating the results. I've made it pretty clear what my source is and how I reached these conclusions. I have no way of manipulating what votes people have made. If you were town you'd be trying to help me improve this- instead you are suggesting that any kind of vote analysis is pointless. Instead you say I should trust my reads which have been wrong at least 3 times already (probably 4 given massive). It's pretty clear that your interest in doing so is self serving: I wasn't scumreading you but my analysis suggests you are a scum partner.
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Post Post #1491 (isolation #260) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:57 pm

Post by Kairal »

Ultimately though regardless of the method I've landed exactly on who Aj and Naomi claim is their top scum read. Neither of you have any reason to complain about that... if you're town.
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Post Post #1493 (isolation #261) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:21 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1488, Kairal wrote:Well that's a lot of words. Firstly: When I said Naomi was wrong about culted I meant that she claimed he had a scumread on Flubber. He doesn't

Secondly the reason I'm so confident about bussing is because I don't actually expect you to do it.

My guess was that you'd find a weak excuse to decide that I'm scum over Flubber
. I suspect that you'll succeed in getting me lynched but in doing so it's going to be extremely clear to everyone that you aren't actually willing to lynch Flubber. They'll get both of you. No guarantee they'll get the last scum but hey 2 scum for 1 town is pretty good.
And here it is. Just as I predicted you are not actually willing to lynch Flubber. Flubber and AJ are scum for sure. Doesn't necessarily clear Naomi but I think it probably does. Town when you are reading back through my posts tomorrow please pay attention here!
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Post Post #1495 (isolation #262) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:30 pm

Post by Kairal »

Why would I bother? You're caught scum, obviously I'm not gonna persuade you.
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Post Post #1497 (isolation #263) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:40 pm

Post by Kairal »

You really did take me for a ride you know that? Even got me doubting the cop claim and everything. It was well played but I have you now.

If anyone who isn't AJ or Flubber has something they want to talk about I'm down for it. No point bothering to fall for AJ's stuff again.
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Post Post #1498 (isolation #264) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:44 pm

Post by Kairal »

I think given his defensiveness over Flubber culted is probably the third member. I'm definitely less sure about that than I am about the other two so don't go for him first.
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Post Post #1500 (isolation #265) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:49 pm

Post by Kairal »

Also AJ you are now the third person to get my gender wrong. Male. Not female. This isn't hard people.
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Post Post #1502 (isolation #266) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:04 pm

Post by Kairal »

You'll note that I'm still voting Flubs.

AJ could not be more transparent about moving his vote from flubs to me. Regardless I intend to start with Flubs and go from there
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Post Post #1503 (isolation #267) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:10 pm

Post by Kairal »

Also I would advise not being taken in by AJ's walls of texts. The short version of my analysis is that I think scum are unlikely to vote as a block. Therefore there should always be at least one on each side of every vote.

Regardless doing that lead me right back to Flubber and Naomi both of whom I had been considering anyway.

Like if I threw out the vote analysis I'd probably still be voting Flubber anyway. The reason for AJ suddenly finding it suspicious is that he never intended to lynch Flubber.

Moreover before if he bussed Flubber he could at least get some town cred for it. Now that I've pointed out their allegiance he knows he's screwed as soon as Flubber flips. So why bus if you won't get towncred? May as well throw some dirt on me, buy scum another day and hope the third member of the team can pull out a win.
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Post Post #1508 (isolation #268) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:48 pm

Post by Kairal »

Worth pointing out I was wrong that game. Consistently. I've been just as wrong this game. Clearly my ability to analyze individual arguments is flawed. Thus I'm looking for a pattern in the votes and arguments people have made. Aj immediately called me out, tried to shoot down the argument and downplay suspicion even though it implicated Flubber, supposedly his top scum read.

To my mind it's quite clear. I asked AJ if he'd vote for his top scum read - he chose instead to vote for me despite arguing that the scum team had to be Flubber and only possibly me. If I were scum I'd be voting for a teammate and town Aj should be fine with that.

Aside from that he has been extremely vocal about rejecting massive's cop claim (I admit I was swayed). Far too vocal frankly. He doesn't have a PR that would give him extra information for such suspicion.
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Post Post #1509 (isolation #269) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:52 pm

Post by Kairal »

Also anytime someone suggests I haven't been arguing about motivations I wonder if I'm taking crazy pills. Culted obviously has a scum motive in not having us lynch Flubber if they are teammates. AJ the same.

Now if Aj were town and he thought Flubber was town he'd be telling us why. He's not. He's ostensibly still scum reading Flubber- he's just very quick to move the vote when it looks like Flubber might be in danger.

Anyway to be honest I don't find the persuading part of this game very interesting. I've deduced who scum are- if none of you want to vote for it that's your problem. If you doubt me vote me off and it will become clear that I am not scum and have in fact found the scum team. Alternatively you could just lynch flubber today. Not fussed either way really.
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Post Post #1522 (isolation #270) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:40 am

Post by Kairal »

I understand now. Nobody actually reads my posts. There's no way you could accidentally call me a chick again otherwise. After 3 posts asking people to stop doing that shit.
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Post Post #1524 (isolation #271) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:43 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1475, Aj The Epic wrote:
Naomi, Flubber,
you|massive
In post 1512, Aj The Epic wrote:
In post 1501, Naomi-Tan wrote:AJ: this is oppertunistic and bad play does not equal Red members. Your right about the logic and the theory (at least I think I didn;t really check as I just want sleep) but it was not the time to push as It did not reflect on their alignment

Both: We should focus on less wildcard lynches today. you may red read each other but the majority is focused on flubs and myself. You should also focus us as the day is all most over and tackle your issues tommorow when we can explore this more in depth without risking a rushed misslynch due to time.
Opportunistic play is absolutely scum. I'm a person who hunts by motive anyways, so of course I'm not really going to agree with this. Kairal's VCA is flawed from the beginning since VCA is normally done over the entirety of the day, not just end of lynches. However, when Kairal suggests I should help him instead of calling him on the bad method, two issues arise. First, I can't actually do VCA. I play with people who do VCA but all I do is make sure it looks right. Secondly, I only call that VCA because that's what it looks closest to. Even VCA will use their own initial reads to benefit their hunt/eliminate certain scenarios. My first issue with Kairal's VCA was it wasn't conclusive. Sure he got results from it, but reading his logic, I didn't get anything close to it. What I got was any single person outside the cleared, cop claim and Kairal himself could be mafia. Not exactly a good way to go, considering now more than ever town reads need to be reinforced.

If you or Flubber is town, particularly you because you brought it up, I want to see you prove this. Mostly, give me a solid reason for your scum reads and stop playing the LAMIST card so much. AKA stop advocating for your own lynch. I don't buy that kind of stuff because it's all a category of WIFOM. To me, it's you or Flubber as the last mafia, which is why I'd prefer to have you two fight to stay alive as opposed to take a 50/50.

culted wrote:
First of all: lol @ the idea of me being scum with kairal. Why do you think I'm scum?

I'm also finding it hard to follow the logic that because kairal and iami started pushing me recently but kairal dropped her scumread on me for a decent minute that they don't make sense as scum together.

What is your read on iami independent of me and kairal?
And how does flubber fit in with naomi considering she's mostly just talked about voting him since she replaced in?
I can answer this in about one grouping: I think IaI is town and right. If Kairal was scum with IaI and you're town, doesn't it make sense for Kairal to keep her scumread on you and then not do any of this at all?

Also if you notice, my read with Flubber/Naomi is that one is part of the last spot, not both
. There is the chance of it being theatre but it'd be fairly one-sided (I don't think Flubber has acknowledged Naomi at all this game).
Yep definitely town AJ here. No lying about reads no sir!
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Post Post #1525 (isolation #272) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:44 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1523, massive wrote:Clearly you shouldn't have been so worried about me not explaining my votes. ;)
Yeah I guess so. To be honest I am beyond done with this town. I just need one more vote and then I can leave you all to wallow in your own mess.
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Post Post #1526 (isolation #273) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:51 am

Post by Kairal »

I just don't understand how you don't all see AJ for being scum. My analysis indicated that he and Flubber were allies.

He was currently voting Flubber and town is currently so disorganized that we're struggling to get a lynch- so why was he voting Flubber? My theory was that he was just trying to distance and wouldn't be willing to go for a lynch. So I called him out for it. My theory was that now that his bus was caught out he'd no longer bother doing it- it won't give him any towncred. Note that he hypothesized that I was on a scum team with Flubber so he should have had no problem with me bussing in that case. I predicted he'd move his vote to me on some weakass vibe- lo and behold exactly what happened. I honestly don't know how much more obvious of a scumtell you guys could want
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Post Post #1527 (isolation #274) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:54 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1474, Kairal wrote:Hmm unless culted is scum I don't have the votes to get a lynch without a bus. Aj is already voting Flubber.

Well lets play bussing wars - you think I'm on a team with Flubber and I think you're on a team with Flubber. Lets both vote him and see who blinks first.

VOTE: Flubber
In post 1475, Aj The Epic wrote:Naomi, Flubber, you|massive
In post 1476, Kairal wrote:Seems like we're both fine with a flubber or Naomi vote. Well I think you're less likely to be on a team with Naomi so I'd prefer you to keep voting Flubber.
In post 1477, Kairal wrote:From your perspective if I were scum I'd be bussing either way right? So you should be fine with that.
In post 1488, Kairal wrote:Well that's a lot of words. Firstly: When I said Naomi was wrong about culted I meant that she claimed he had a scumread on Flubber. He doesn't

Secondly the reason I'm so confident about bussing is because I don't actually expect you to do it.

My guess was that you'd find a weak excuse to decide that I'm scum over Flubber. I suspect that you'll succeed in getting me lynched but in doing so it's going to be extremely clear to everyone that you aren't actually willing to lynch Flubber. They'll get both of you. No guarantee they'll get the last scum but hey 2 scum for 1 town is pretty good.
In post 1492, Aj The Epic wrote:Before we start: I'm not saying you manipulated the results so much as manufactured them and that the method couldn't produce anything useful if it was able to produce anything at all.

So let me preface this continuation with the following note: The only way I see Kairal doing this as town is having these reads before hand and for whatever reason trying to justify them with handwaving as to not look completely out of place. It... doesn't make a lot of sense to me why he'd do it this way. Here's the thing: One of the major reasons I've townread Kairal for so long is his reads have been fluid, have had natural progression and have made sense, even if they're a bit weak or somewhat waffled (kairal gets talked out of a lot of shit that he really shouldn't...). Especially since kairal wouldn't have a read jump on flubber if it were predetermined. Ergo read the rest of this post with kairal!scum as the control.

My biggest question is why does Kairal keep flubber's read scum after this? We know the two options: Bus, Mislynch. I think bus can make sense here but mislynch lends to a more advantageous scum motive. Kairal scumreads both me and Naomi. At this point, had he decided, he could've convinced massive/myself rather easily to buy into Naomi before Flubber. That scenario assumes Naomi is town to pass the lynch off in the first place. If Flubber was scum with Kairal, Kairal could attempt to drag him into lylo. Course... it doesn't do much, I think Kairal/Flubber would be the next two lynches.

It'd actually have been more natural for Kairal to continue a scum read of flubber from beginning to end in a hard bus. Be adamant about the lynch, gain the most town points. Doing this casts a ton of suspicion on Kairal. And really, removing Culted/IAI/Massive from her scumread list is a lot easier than going through this theatrical display. If Flubber was truly scum, this is a hard lynch to drop under any circumstance for a scum partner. Yet there are, as stated above, ways to do it. If he's town, Kairal could fumble on it, be insecure and not look super gung-ho on the lynch going into lylo for two lynches in a row that just look strange.

The drop of culted as a scum read in and of itself isn't awful. Well. Depends on your definition. Culted had been pressuring kairal pretty hard recently, and IaI, one of Kairal's other beginning scum reads, was/is pressing culted and it seems those two probably don't share an alignment. Had Kairal stated one of the two to be scum, it makes more sense. Picking a side that he believes is probably more useful to the town because it's an opinion and it's someone arguing for/against what's happening. Instead, from the looks of things, Kairal is seeing the entire thing as TvT. The piece of this that's important is culted had started to slip into the null area for a lot of people but IaI so it'd be pretty easy to bust out an easy town read. Is it possible to town read culted? Sure, but I think it's pertinent in 'reaccessing' reads to at least address IaI's point on that. In a way, this read change both follows Kairal's trend of being incredibly easy to persuade but also breaks the mold by not having really put a lot of consideration into it (as I'd argue the entire theory followed suit).

P-edit: Even with it being a response about culted's reads, it doesn't change the fact that culted has been completely dropped from Kairal's scum reads.

As far as I know, Naomi wasn't a strong scum read of Culted prior to this. I've mentioned this is odd that Kairal scumreads both Naomi and I (since we've done nothing but argue with me scumreading her, and my read on CK/Shadow/Naomi has been NAI to scum most of the game). Kairal amends it that he thinks it's TvS in 1467, but does little to explain why or who's the extra person. In fact, it's another written-in mislynch that he ADMITS to. A day away from Lylo he's giving himself a mislynch chance on a 50/50. Let's go back to Flubber being innocent for a moment. IF flubber is innocent, LYLO occurs tomorrow and scum have 3 of the 4 remaining. More than likely, they'd take that bet at a 50/50 between Naomi and I and pull ahead. Hell, they'd only need one person to vote me and then win it, so it's not really a 50/50.

More importantly, Kairal's done zilch for scumreading me all game and only started scumreading Naomi for the short period of time when Shadow came after her to naomi's replace in. And we're to believe off this method he's got a scumread strong enough to believe it on not even full VCA.

If I had to guess, Kairal's indication shows Culted scum, Naomi scum, himself scum. Naomi is biased on my own read of her but unless I'm going to read Dierfire as scum, who's basically unmentioned and a consistent town read of mine, there's not a lot that makes sense from this perspective. Flubber could be scum here and it could just be a poorly executed bus/someone that scum has determined to not live through lylo either. The one flaw is Shadow did toss some shade at Kairal, which doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense, though it wasn't followed by a case nor vote so it was just shade. But between this, the Jin incident and some inconsistencies we've seen from Kairal today, I think this is it.

Culted/Kairal/Naomi|Flubber.

VOTE: Kairal
Kairal wrote:Ultimately though regardless of the method I've landed exactly on who Aj and Naomi claim is their top scum read. Neither of you have any reason to complain about that... if you're town.
...No? My top scum read was Naomi going in. And DAMN RIGHT I have issues with how you got here.
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Post Post #1528 (isolation #275) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:56 am

Post by Kairal »

Like he has total word vomit on the vote post but it's all absolute garbage somehow hypothesizing that culted, who is currently tunneling me hard, is somehow my scum partner. You really couldn't think of a team that makes more sense? Like at least Dier isn't currently after me.
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Post Post #1529 (isolation #276) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:00 am

Post by Kairal »

Anyway for when I'm dead: the sequence of events is that I get lynched, the next two days are flubber and AJ and then you need to find the third scum. I was thinking it's culted- AJ suddenly deciding culted is scum could be a hint that he's trying to distance. On the other hand it could be him trying to implicate culted for my mislynch. So tomorrow he's all 'wow Kairal was so scummy I just had to go for it you know, but you know who pushed it really hard? Culted. So suspicious!'. I guess it's WIFOM. Good luck with working it out!
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Post Post #1532 (isolation #277) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:09 am

Post by Kairal »

Incidentally I assume we're all on the same page about scum being pretty good this game right? they've effectively gotten 3 mislynches without raising any real suspicion. Does that sound more likely to be me, the guy who's played all of 3 games or AJ the long term veteran? If I'm good enough to avoid any kind of detection for 2 days why do I throw that away on a Jin lynch that was bound to happen anyway? If I'm scum why even bother with the VCA? A method which as massive notes implicates me to a large degree?
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Post Post #1535 (isolation #278) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:39 am

Post by Kairal »

The reason that I'm so frustrated and that I needed a new method is because I have 0 town reads. 0.

Culted asked me to justify my IamI town read and I looked through his ISO and couldn't do it. He has a bad push on Dier. That's the best I have.

Dier on the other hand seemed like he was a low quantity poster but could at least be counted on for some serious analysis when he posted once in a blue moon. Then he brought out 'Naomi is scum because she mentioned 3 scum roles'. So much for that.

I had good vibes about Aj but here he is blatantly refusing to vote for his top scum read because I voted it.

culted started a weird and totally unjustified push on me and is weirdly super convinced Flubber is town. Incidentally he's never posted a single reason for that town read. None. He's absolutely certain about it though!

massive has played incredibly scummily for days- so guess who has the power role! The one person who can't be scum. My one confirmed ally is the guy who's voting me because I dared to question his blank voting day 1.

Well at least I have BV. I think he has more days in this game then he has posts.

Pretty sure Flubber is scum but even if he isn't he's given us nothing today except for a meltdown at massive. Which hey at least that I can relate to. Again the person most likely to be scum is the one who mirrors my feelings on the game. hooray.

That leaves you Naomi- the analysis suggests you are the second most likely candidate for scum.

Oh and people insist on calling me female. Despite me asking them at least four times not too. Frankly that's not even in the game. That's just weird and petty.
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Post Post #1537 (isolation #279) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:29 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1523, massive wrote:Clearly you shouldn't have been so worried about me not explaining my votes. ;)
So this isn't a passive agressive jab at me? C'mon man at least own it. Your reasons are very obviously working backwards from your conclusion.
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Post Post #1539 (isolation #280) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:10 pm

Post by Kairal »

You were voting Flubber.
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Post Post #1551 (isolation #281) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:24 pm

Post by Kairal »

Currently I am at 3 I believe. massive culted and AJ. Flubber at 1 from my vote. I don't believe anyone else is voting.

Anywho if I get one more I'll probably just self-hammer. None of you are going to see what is in front of you until I flip so no point dragging it out. You can have fun with Lylo without me.
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Post Post #1553 (isolation #282) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:37 pm

Post by Kairal »

Or... maybe someone can see it? Feeling more optimistic now. If you won't listen to me at least listen to the definitely town guy.
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Post Post #1555 (isolation #283) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:47 pm

Post by Kairal »

Eh it's not like there's even any good reason for me to lynch Jin as scum. Yeah it was hasty- however he'd already claimed. There was enough suspicion that he was bound to get lynched anyway. Interestingly I think you said the same before... I wonder if you have some kind of ulterior motive that would lead you to change your mind on this? Naaaaaah surely not.
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Post Post #1556 (isolation #284) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:54 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 884, MiniDeathStar wrote:I can't help but notice that Flub and Aj are doing exactly what Io (tacitly) predicted they would be doing. As much as I still think massive is scum, I can't keep that mindset from yesterday and expect to be correct this time after I was already wrong about Io. I seriously need to reread some ISOs, like culted, Aj and maybe IaI in particular.

Kairal, please don't ignore dead townies' reads and continue your conviction from earlier. I noticed it's a thing you tend to do, and I think you should try to break that habit. Case in point: Open 656, I correctly named 2 of the 3 scum, who everyone else thought were town, on Day 1. I was killed night 1 and it's like everyone totally forgot I ever existed and let the scum live until lylo. NJAC did that, too: he named 1 scum, ended up lynched by that scum, and town forgot about him.

Please don't make the same mistake.
Hmm I didn't pay much attention to this at the time. The mention of Flubber and AJ was interesting though. Gonna take a look and see what Io post she's referring to.
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Post Post #1557 (isolation #285) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:56 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 856, Io wrote:Yeah still feeling AJ, Flubber, and Culted. Maybe not Culted, but Culted it probably the most likely other person that could be scum.
I think I believe Newman's claim.
Hmm Io had this... was she secretly on point the whole time? This is exactly the scum team I'm currently thinking- even down to the uncertainty on culted
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Post Post #1558 (isolation #286) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:58 pm

Post by Kairal »

I can't find what exactly Mini is talking about though. Io doesn't seem to make any predictions about their behaviour.
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Post Post #1560 (isolation #287) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:17 pm

Post by Kairal »

I quoted the post right there. That's the latest post she has covering reads no? Where are you getting the included Mini thing?
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Post Post #1561 (isolation #288) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:20 pm

Post by Kairal »

Anyway it is only Day 1 reads. I just thought it was interesting that she seems to have been right. I guess it's more of a topic for post game.
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Post Post #1562 (isolation #289) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:35 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 368, Io wrote:Didn't even see the other 2 pages.
While the argument from Grey is a bit of a stretch and heavily relies on Shadow being scum I think he is town from that. The structure of his points doesn't really ping me as trying to make a quick push and if anything if he were scum I don't see why he would have waited until after Cloud replaces to make that kind of a push. It's town orientated.
Mini is also probably town from the way she handled the vote on her and opposition to the Cloud accusation was reasonable.
In post 400, Io wrote:
In post 384, Aj The Epic wrote:
MiniDeathStar wrote:Aj the Rubic, why are you scumreading Io btw? I looked through your posts but you never actually mentioned that until now.
Some of it is OMGUS at face value but the unexplained vote on me wasn't good, especially considering she had explained her position on other wagons far more clearly. Dierfire more or less explained it earlier, but it was a vote that made no sense given the post she made it in had other stronger scumreads.
At the time it was between you and Grey, but Grey now looks town so you're down to my only current scum read.
In post 602, Io wrote:Pretty confident in Newman, Grey, and kai being town.
To lesser extent Shadow and Massive.
Hmm. You said she had bad reads and got lynched for it.

I was right there with you pushing her so it's not like I disagreed at the time. However a lot of these are really quite good.

Specifically that last post we all know she's right about Newman and Grey, Most of us agree she's right about massive, I know she's right about me and I think there's a good chance she's right about Shadow/Naomi too.

Maybe we're having so much trouble because we lynched the only person with good reads.

She was throwing shade at Mini for a while before she decided she was town. Other than that though seems to have been spot on. If you're reading this Io sorry for doubting you. I guess you can have a good gloat post game at least.
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Post Post #1563 (isolation #290) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:43 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 894, Aj The Epic wrote:
In post 884, MiniDeathStar wrote:I can't help but notice that Flub and Aj are doing exactly what Io (tacitly) predicted they would be doing. As much as I still think massive is scum, I can't keep that mindset from yesterday and expect to be correct this time after I was already wrong about Io. I seriously need to reread some ISOs, like culted, Aj and maybe IaI in particular.
You realize her suspect list was not only bad, but included you, not IaI.
In post 1559, Aj The Epic wrote:Io picked names out of a hat for pre-flip associations with me. Was lynched because of these reads being so dreadful and her inconsistency in where she got them from.
She included MDS over flubber fwiw
Interesting to me (and by interesting I mean extremely scummy) that Aj misrepresents Io's reads in both of these posts. I figure he noticed she was dead on so felt the need to misrep her views later on. As my previous quote notes her actual position at the time of lynch is Flubber Aj and maybe culted.
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Post Post #1564 (isolation #291) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:47 pm

Post by Kairal »

Anyway I guess what I'm saying is when I get lynched trust not just in my reads but in Io's.
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Post Post #1593 (isolation #292) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:08 pm

Post by Kairal »

Ok so I probably shound't have gotten frustrated and threatened to self hammer. That said I am strongly concerned that we won't secure a lynch today.

If we don't lynch today the player count goes 9->8-6 (lose). In short we lose a lynch. It is better for town to lynch me today then it is to no lynch. Massive won't move from me, and Naomi won't budge on culted or Aj. That leaves Flubber and IamI isn't happy about that. At least one of you will have to move and we have less than 2 days to get this done.
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Post Post #1594 (isolation #293) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:09 pm

Post by Kairal »

Anyway if we had more time sure we could vote culted for a reaction test or whatever. However he is the third on my scum read list right now and I'd prefer to vote Flubber who I am both most confident about and who we have a better shot of getting.
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Post Post #1596 (isolation #294) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:25 pm

Post by Kairal »

I think you're wrong about IamI Naomi. Please reconsider your view on AJ and culted. If you think Flubber is red I don't understand how you can't see both of them protecting him. Also what do you think of Io's reads exactly coinciding with what I'm proposing and then AJ misrepresenting them whenever that fact is mentioned?
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Post Post #1598 (isolation #295) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:45 pm

Post by Kairal »

Great. Ok. Well we have less than two days left. I guess I'll ask what you think of Io's reads and AJ's attempt to misrepresent them. Keep in mind she was townreading you when almost no-one else was. She also townread Newman when we all tried to lynch him.
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Post Post #1600 (isolation #296) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:04 pm

Post by Kairal »

Well there's 2 reasons for that. Firstly you are unfortunately too town read to be a real option. Secondly as suspicious as everything you've done this last few pages is the fact is that the VCA implicates flubber more strongly than it implicates you.
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Post Post #1601 (isolation #297) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:05 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1599, Aj The Epic wrote:
In post 1595, Naomi-Tan wrote:Yes. When Flubbs flips red it'll then confirm my theory. I can make associative tells If I'm sure enough of my results. nice try though.

Your theory is IaI is guilty, isnt it? How does Flubber!scum get you there?

@Kairal, it's not really a misrep as there was another post Io had stating "newman is the scummiest of the three" which included flubber, jin/massive, Neman, even though she called all of them town. In the post MDS refers to, MDS is considered Io's third. The issue with Io's read is she based them entirely off of people associated with me, in all cases awkwardly. Culted because we simply didn't talk, flubber? IDK we never agreed and MDS because... I think MDS was an independent scum read.

My current issue is with how convinced you are about me, you choose flubber over me. Hell, you've gone like 4 pages completely convinced of this and mentioning flubber only as a side character here. Yet you remain on him and off of me.
Anyway what's the scum motive here exactly? When Flubber flips scum you're next on the list. It's not like I'm not going to vote you then
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Post Post #1602 (isolation #298) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:08 pm

Post by Kairal »

You continue to bring up an outdated read of Io's. I can't see a town motivation for not engaging with her actual position at the time she died.
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Post Post #1604 (isolation #299) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:12 pm

Post by Kairal »

Ok the best hope of moving massive is for us to get a wagon going. IamI, Dier, BV, Naomi. Lets pick a wagon and put some votes on it. I'll vote for any of AJ, Flubber or culted.
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Post Post #1605 (isolation #300) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:13 pm

Post by Kairal »

But you are following exactly the path to victory that you claim I am. Lynch me today convince town to lynch Naomi tomorrow.
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Post Post #1608 (isolation #301) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:17 pm

Post by Kairal »

Frankly I don't even get what you're trying to say with the bolded. Like it's apparently swaying other people but seems like nonsense to me. The VCA indicates there must be scum in Flubber and Naomi and Naomi and AJ. Therefore either Naomi is scum or you and Flubber are scum. You have succeeded in convincing me that you're protecting Flubber- like really hard. So it seems pretty clear to me that this is a Flubber, AJ scum situation. I suspect culted as the third member because he has also been protecting flubber really hard (incidentally the only two people who are clearly protecting Flubber).
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Post Post #1609 (isolation #302) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:18 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1606, BlackVoid wrote:Oh man, I wish we had a longer extension. This is cutting it really close but I have free time now so I'll try and finish up tonight.

@Kairal, how is your lynch list the exact same as mine?
Mine came first so... you tell me?

More seriously I've spent the last few pages outlining how I got here. If anything about it is unclear then I'll try to be clearer.

It's also exactly the same as Io's. Maybe the 3 of us just happen to have hit on the scum team.
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Post Post #1611 (isolation #303) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:24 pm

Post by Kairal »

Yes I agree that Flubber is probably a better bet- incidentally he's obviously given up. He's barely posted today choosing instead to allow culted and AJ to be his white knights. Please place your vote. if we get Flubber to 4 I think massive might move his.
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Post Post #1613 (isolation #304) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:27 pm

Post by Kairal »

It may be you genuinely believe that. Regardless your reaction makes it very clear to me that I've hit the nail on the head.
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Post Post #1616 (isolation #305) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:32 pm

Post by Kairal »

In... what sense? I said (paraphrasing) I think you and flubber might be allies, incidentally we can't lynch him if you don't vote him. The instant I point that out you ENTIRELY reverse your town read on me and start voting me. Like... how transparent is that?
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Post Post #1617 (isolation #306) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:33 pm

Post by Kairal »

In fact it's so transparent I predicted you'd do it. Right before you did.
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Post Post #1619 (isolation #307) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:35 pm

Post by Kairal »

Anyway the funny thing is that I suspect your anger about this is entirely genuine. You are furious because you got caught out in a game you were easily on track to winning and it's not even by an argument you think makes sense. Surely the most frustrating thing for scum is to be caught out by an argument you think is totally bogus.
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Post Post #1622 (isolation #308) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:37 pm

Post by Kairal »

Nah good scum will use their genuine emotions to fuel their posts. In my one scum game I got very irate for town with not voting my top scum read. In that case I actually did think he was playing scummy and should have been voted for it. I was actually genuinely frustrated they wouldn't vote him.
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Post Post #1623 (isolation #309) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:41 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1621, Aj The Epic wrote:
In post 1619, Kairal wrote:Anyway the funny thing is that I suspect your anger about this is entirely genuine. You are furious because you got caught out in a game you were easily on track to winning and it's not even by an argument you think makes sense. Surely the most frustrating thing for scum is to be caught out by an argument you think is totally bogus.
Hold on, if I'm 'easily on track to win this', why would I care if a buddy dies? Just force through another LYLO and get the same result.
Two possible reasons 1) you never intended to vote him in the first place and were simply planning to find a convenient excuse to move your vote elswhere (initially you were going to go shadow but then it became clear you couldn't bring me into LYLO)

2) You didn't think you'd be able to get 2 lynches through without losing a buddy so you planned to bus Flubber your weakest link. Why did you back down? Because I caught your bus. A Flubber scum flip only confirms you scum in my eyes- Now Flubber has to live. YOu could go full on Naomi but hey massive is already voting me. You only need one town vote. So you figured you'd give it a whirl.

Anyway I don't know which it is. I'm not a mindreader after all
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Post Post #1626 (isolation #310) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:53 pm

Post by Kairal »

That makes me think it is the second reason. You were ok with bussing Flubber until it became clear that you'd be implicated from him being caught scum. What would be a reasonable move to buy you town cred now has the reverse effect.

And no I have no intention of digging through your meta. Firstly because I can confirm you based on Flubber's flip. Secondly because you've recently come back from a long break and may very well be deliberately playing differently. Thirdly because reading games I'm unfamiliar with is an extremely time consuming exercise and I can't be bothered.

Anyway lets isolate what you say is my path to victory tomorrow. We lynch Flubber today and... what he's town? Ok then what?
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Post Post #1628 (isolation #311) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:55 pm

Post by Kairal »

Hmm my entire scum read team is voting me. This makes me feel like I'm on the right track. The good news is we still have enough votes to get a scum. If we can't get a wagon together before... oh lets say 12 hours to deadline I'll self hammer. Sorry IamI but I can't risk a no lynch.
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Post Post #1629 (isolation #312) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:56 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1627, Aj The Epic wrote:
In post 1626, Kairal wrote:That makes me think it is the second reason. You were ok with bussing Flubber until it became clear that you'd be implicated from him being caught scum. What would be a reasonable move to buy you town cred now has the reverse effect.

And no I have no intention of digging through your meta. Firstly because I can confirm you based on Flubber's flip. Secondly because you've recently come back from a long break and may very well be deliberately playing differently. Thirdly because reading games I'm unfamiliar with is an extremely time consuming exercise and I can't be bothered.

Anyway lets isolate what you say is my path to victory tomorrow. We lynch Flubber today and... what he's town? Ok then what?
So then I'd prefer you not try to use meta tells in the first place if you're not gonna do the legwork to see what my meta is.

You can think whichever you want. It won't change my flip nor the fact that I dropped that wagon before you thought I was scum.
It's not really a meta tell. It's based entirely on this game.
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Post Post #1630 (isolation #313) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:57 pm

Post by Kairal »

Anyway why not take me up on my offer? What happens tomorrow when I get innocent townie Flubber lynched whilst twirling my moustache? The only way I walk from a lynch is by convincing town to vote Naomi- who according to you is my scum partner. So that's no good.
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Post Post #1632 (isolation #314) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:00 pm

Post by Kairal »

Ok so we have 19 Hours till I'm self hammering. Please start voting town. Frankly it's absolutely ridiculous that we've over the two week limit and most of you haven't placed a vote yet. Somewhat more excusable for the replacements but Dier and IamI have no excuse.
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Post Post #1634 (isolation #315) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:02 pm

Post by Kairal »

Elaborate on how I win tomorrow after lynching Flubber. if he were scum and I were bussing you should be perfectly happy to vote him. You aren't so therefore you must believe he's town. So there we go scum team Naomi and I are in Lylo. How do we wriggle out of a lynch? Consider that I've already said town Flubber clears you and implicates Naomi.
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Post Post #1635 (isolation #316) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:03 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1633, Aj The Epic wrote:
In post 1632, Kairal wrote:Please start voting town
Freudian slip
I can't believe you actually tried that. I really, really can't.
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Post Post #1637 (isolation #317) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:07 pm

Post by Kairal »

Well I shouldn't mock your methods I suppose. It's clear that you are actually a much better player than I am. I should probably be taking notes for when I roll scum.
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Post Post #1640 (isolation #318) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:08 pm

Post by Kairal »

Ok the two things I'm getting from my VCA are one of Naomi and Flubber must be scum. That means if Flubber is town Naomi has to be scum. There is no way I could feasibly argue for your lynch based on my VCA IF Flubber is town.
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Post Post #1641 (isolation #319) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:09 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1639, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 1635, Kairal wrote:
In post 1633, Aj The Epic wrote:
In post 1632, Kairal wrote:Please start voting, town
Freudian slip
I can't believe you actually tried that. I really, really can't.
Blatant misrep. Aj confirmed scum.
!... GODDAMMIT FLUBBER.

Ok. This is just a scum trick. There's no way AJ gets lynched today so he's just trying to distance. Everything is fine.
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Post Post #1643 (isolation #320) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:11 pm

Post by Kairal »

Ok he also says Aj confirmed scum but doesn't move his vote from me. He's still hoping I'll hammer. Ok yeah I'm fine. Scum team is still intact.
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Post Post #1644 (isolation #321) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:11 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1642, Aj The Epic wrote:Why the fuck does flubber add a comma into his quote...?
Because that's extremely obviously how it should be read?
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Post Post #1647 (isolation #322) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:16 pm

Post by Kairal »

Hmmmm why is Aj so annoyed by this? He was probably cheering when Flubber distanced and is now mad that he's walking it back. That checks out.
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Post Post #1648 (isolation #323) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:17 pm

Post by Kairal »

Anyway he's not wrong that I need to be more confident in my reads. It's pretty sad that I was actually shaken for a moment there.
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Post Post #1651 (isolation #324) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:22 pm

Post by Kairal »

People may be wondering why I'm planning to hammer 12 hours before the deadline. This is because IF scum are pushing for a no lynch (not sure they are but it's quite possible) the obvious course of action is to have a change in heart shortly before I hammer. Thus we need enough time to make sure we can get SOMEONE over the line.
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Post Post #1653 (isolation #325) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:25 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1649, Flubbernugget wrote:Karial, why would you think if I genuinely saw a reason that Aj was confirmed scum I wouldn't vote for them?
Because you are his scum partner. Why didn't you vote to avoid suspicion you mean? I'm not entirely sure whether or not you guys want me to self-hammer or a no lynch actually. You continuing to vote with me fits the latter. On the other hand a no lynch at this point is probably a guaranteed win so if you can be sneaky enough about it you'd probably go for it.
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Post Post #1654 (isolation #326) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:26 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1652, Aj The Epic wrote:But you know who the scum are so you're just advancing their motives, right?

Kairal I hope you see your inconsistencies here.
As I just explained a no lynch is a certain loss (I'm not confident I'd avoid a lynch tomorrow) If I get lynched today at least there's a chance.
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Post Post #1655 (isolation #327) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:27 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1650, Aj The Epic wrote:You would literally say it made sense if flubber took a shotgun to me and scattered my innards on the ground kairal
This sure makes you sound suspicious of Flubber. Why not vote him? After all even if we were scum partners you'd still be getting a scum. Ok then I'd get you lynched the day after maybe but if you came up town I'd be the lynch after that. 2 scum for 1 town is a good deal no? That's what I suspect you'd think if you were town. You aren't though so you won't vote for Flubber under any circumstances now.
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Post Post #1656 (isolation #328) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:33 pm

Post by Kairal »

Incidentally I just want to be entirely clear about this. If I have to self hammer to prevent a no lynch because town can't get their shit in gear that is ENTIRELY on town. If you then go on to lose even though I've laid out the scum team for you, you better not come crying to me about it.
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Post Post #1665 (isolation #329) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:47 am

Post by Kairal »

Well I had this pretty neat post all planned out threatening to self hammer again unless people started voting. I can't even do that now so...

I guess I'll just say you guys should really start voting. There is only one town player currently voting (it's me!). Maybe you thought you voted and forgot to? I am talking specifically to IamI, Dierfire, Naomi and BV. Well and massive now I guess.

Alright so massive's questions: My theory is that scum will make sure not to ever all agree with the same position (at least until it's been pointed out as seen in them all currently voting me). I agree that they won't take any other easy to recognize pattern. We can't assume that Flubber voted yes on every wagon or anything like that. What we can assume is that on every wagon (or major position in the case of the cop argument) at least one scum will disagree with the other two.

Now massive is quite right that I am implicated in this as well. I guess all I can say is I have a bit of advantage over the rest of you in that regard. The pattern is quite clear to me since I know I'm town and perhaps not so clear to the rest of you.

Not much of a defense but what else is there to say? I guess I don't see why I'd even bother with this whole thing if I were scum. I only had one vote on me beforehand so it's not like I needed to radically change my position in response to pressure or anything. I could've just sat on any random vote for a few days until we got a no lynch which is where we seem to be headed.

So why not Naomi? Well I did vote Naomi initially. Then everything with AJ happened and it became clear to me that he was protecting Flubber. Why not vote AJ then? Well partially because I think he's a more difficult lynch- start with the weakest link. If I can come to you guys tomorrow with a flipped scum in Flubber I think I've got a much better shot at bagging AJ. Secondly both he and culted are protecting Flubber - I think they're both scum but it's possible only one is. So go for the overlap in the Venn diagram of scumminess if you get what I mean.
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Post Post #1666 (isolation #330) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:53 am

Post by Kairal »

It sorta sucks but the only way I can prove my sincerity is being lynched. So I guess you just gotta decide whether or not you think I would actually bother with any of this when I'm scum when I didn't need to. If you're not sure then lynch me. Personally I think it's pretty telling that all 3 of my scum reads suddenly manufactured poorly justified reads on me out of thin air. If you look at their posts over the last few days and think 'yup these are my town buddies' then vote me. Otherwise park your vote on Flubber and lets win this thing.
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Post Post #1684 (isolation #331) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:31 am

Post by Kairal »

Well I'm fine with culted but it looks to me like neither massive nor Naomi will vote for it. Incidentally IamI I checked your Iso and the VC. You do not currently have a vote recorded that I can see. Please just make it again.
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Post Post #1686 (isolation #332) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:36 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1669, massive wrote:Because this:
In post 1665, Kairal wrote:What we can assume is that on every wagon (or major position in the case of the cop argument) at least one scum will disagree with the other two.
You're going to be able to put up as an argument for any group of people. Heck, me, Grey, and MDS were this over the first two days. That's not enough to call us a scumteam.
You are not understanding this. I don't understand why but you aren't.

Likewise I really don't understand what kind of defense you expect me to offer. I don't have a power role and apparently talking about whether or not it makes sense for me to do something as scum is off the table. The choice here is to spend a day lynching me to confirm that I'm telling the truth or to lynch scum.

Thirdly I've explained multiple times why Flubber and not Naomi- because he has obvious buds and she doesn't. Yeah I guess there's also an element of gut read to it too. I don't get a scum vibe from her. Simple as that.
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Post Post #1687 (isolation #333) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:39 am

Post by Kairal »

I'll double check this. From the top of my head it's:

Kairal: culted, AJ, Flubber
Flubber: Kairal, Naomi
culted: BV (IamI?)

Dier and massive currently not voting.
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Post Post #1689 (isolation #334) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:41 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 856, Io wrote:Yeah still feeling AJ, Flubber, and Culted. Maybe not Culted, but Culted it probably the most likely other person that could be scum.
I think I believe Newman's claim.
In post 1573, BlackVoid wrote:Okay, so I've finished the first forty pages. Going to read up on the rest today. With Flubber's claim, it's all but assured that Massive is town. I don't think odd-night cop + JK is sufficient power at all.

I don't want to lynch Kairal. I agree that his changing votes every few hours is pretty town. I don't want to lynch IAI today either. I'm not sure about anyone else but my current lynchlist is Culted > AJ > Flubber.

@IAI - would you mind going more in-depth into your Cloudkicker townread? I remember we were both wrong on him before so I want to know where it was coming from.
In post 993, Dierfire wrote:my recollection and limited review of previous games supports the idea that Shadow_step is no less active as Mafia than as Town.
What are you basing this off of? In Podoboq's game, he was incredibly active and pushing things a lot before he replaced out. That has not been my impression at all.
Anyway massive you don't trust me seeing the scum team inc culted, Aj and Flubber. Perhaps these two confirmed town saying the same thing will sway you?
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Post Post #1692 (isolation #335) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:45 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1688, massive wrote:The problem is that she has obvious buds. Maybe you are trying to downplay this but I posted it today : Kairal - Naomi - IAMI. I didn't come up with that, that's simply the other team. You can find at least two people who would push this team.

So what's your read on I Am Innocent?
I'm confident I found the scum team so on that basis he's town. Other than that not much really. I don't think he has a very good case on Dier but he seems quite attached to it. I sort of feel like scum would probably not want to bother pushing someone so townread- easier to just go for me and then Naomi really. I'm not putting a lot of stock in that reasoning myself though - I'm primarily townreading him by PoE as I said.
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Post Post #1693 (isolation #336) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:46 am

Post by Kairal »

They weren't sitting on me by themselves until now - they had you for cover. Secondly I caught them out specifically on the basis that they'd never agree on any position. Now that I've publically broadcast that pattern of course they're going to try and change it up.
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Post Post #1694 (isolation #337) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:47 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1691, massive wrote:It doesn't sway me at all, and here's why. IO's reads are from an entire day ago. BV will probably get to the vote count and realize that three scum aren't sitting on you all by themselves.
Io's reads on you and Newman were both right- a full day before anyone had reason to believe you were town. I really think you should consider them more strongly.
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Post Post #1695 (isolation #338) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:49 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1687, Kairal wrote:I'll double check this. From the top of my head it's:

Kairal: culted, AJ, Flubber
Flubber: Kairal, Naomi
culted: BV, IamI

Dier and massive currently not voting.
massive found IamI's vote. I missed it because it was in bold and not vote tags.
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Post Post #1696 (isolation #339) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:51 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1625, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 1611, Kairal wrote:Yes I agree that Flubber is probably a better bet- incidentally he's obviously given up. He's barely posted today choosing instead to allow culted and AJ to be his white knights. Please place your vote. if we get Flubber to 4 I think massive might move his.
So my activity dropped starting last Wednesday due to a head injury (If the mod allows I'll post. It's not horrible but gore is subjective), and around the time I got around to getting back here massive had claimed. I think it's reasonable to feel lost and discouraged when you've been wrong the entire game.

I'll admit I skim a lot of Aj's longer posts but I've myself in his scum list a couple times already.

VOTE: Kairal
I mean I'm a little disturbed that nothing about this rings out at you (Sorry for the head injury Flubber. Get well soon). His entire case on me is sheeping AJ- posts which he admits he didn't even fully read.
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Post Post #1698 (isolation #340) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:05 pm

Post by Kairal »

Yep if they get me today they just need one of massive or Naomi to vote the other and then it's all over. if you guys do lynch me please promise to vote flubber tomorrow. massive you agree that one of flubber and I are scum so that should be no problem right?
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Post Post #1699 (isolation #341) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:08 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1697, BlackVoid wrote:
In post 1363, culted wrote:kai/naomi/iami

Flubber is an obvious deadline lynch on town if I've ever seen one.
This is a terrible scumlist. At this point I'm on board with IAI's list of 3 among {Culted, AJ, Dierfire, Flubber}. I really think Culted and AJ are the team with one of the others fitting into the third slot. I think scum are hardpushing a mislynch at this point so they can get to lylo. And it's extremely difficult for town to win from a 7-way lylo.
Incidentally I didn't realize anyone other than IamI was scumreading Dier. Interesting. I'm still confident that it's the other three though
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Post Post #1702 (isolation #342) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:35 pm

Post by Kairal »

I've explained this already but I got into a little bussing competition with Aj over it. he was scum reading me and Flubber, I was scum reading him and Flubber. If town you should be perfectly ok with having a scum bus their own teammate. However he blinked- When given the chance to take out a top scum read he chose to reject it. It's pretty obvious to me that he doesn't want Flubber lynched.
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Post Post #1703 (isolation #343) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:36 pm

Post by Kairal »

Anyway it's 2 on 2 culted v Flubber right now. I'd prefer Flubber but maybe if I go culted we can get some momentum going here. Less than 24 hours left now.

VOTE: culted
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Post Post #1704 (isolation #344) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:38 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1568, Flubbernugget wrote:Iai I am interested as to why you see Karai as town because right now they are literally saying stuff discrediting it and then play plopping a vote out with all of 0 commitment.

With threats of self hammering I withold my vote until blackstar catches up

Also I am VT
Anyway since as you note that post doesn't include a reason to vote me here's the one that does I guess? Very compelling. Incidentally if I were town being buddied bu culted as hard as Flubber is I'd be pretty suspicious. Lets see what Flubber has to say about it.
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Post Post #1706 (isolation #345) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:41 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 1682, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 1671, I Am Innocent wrote:culted, full list of reads please.
Maybe it's because I think the way you're looking at voting patterns is complete crap but I'm not impressed by you dismissing culted as throwing shade.
Yep he doesn't ever mention it. He is willing to defend culted here though- again based on basically nothing.
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Post Post #1707 (isolation #346) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:42 pm

Post by Kairal »

Yeah I'm ok with AJ too. However time really is running low- 20 hours left I believe.
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Post Post #1710 (isolation #347) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:47 pm

Post by Kairal »

It is true that AJ is the biggest threat on the team.
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Post Post #1711 (isolation #348) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:49 pm

Post by Kairal »

In all honesty I need your vote BV. So I'll vote whichever of the three you want.
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Post Post #1717 (isolation #349) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 2:27 pm

Post by Kairal »

Happy Birthday Gamma.
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Post Post #1729 (isolation #350) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 2:52 pm

Post by Kairal »

Alright I agree that Aj is the best player of the three so lets do it.

VOTE: AJ
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Post Post #1741 (isolation #351) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:30 pm

Post by Kairal »

We have 3 votes on Aj and 3 on me. Please vote Aj Naomi.
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Post Post #1743 (isolation #352) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:27 pm

Post by Kairal »

Well I need to head out soon. I'll check back in... probably 10 hours or so.
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Post Post #1787 (isolation #353) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:06 am

Post by Kairal »

I was really hoping this would all be resolved by now. End of Day 1 is likely occur while I'm asleep I'll stick around for an hour or so but this is probably gonna be my last shot for discussion and voting. I'm gonna stick with BV. However it might be better for those of us voting AJ to move to Flubber- at least we'll get the lynch that way.
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Post Post #1788 (isolation #354) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:06 am

Post by Kairal »

Er... obviously not Day 1. I'm tired.
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Post Post #1789 (isolation #355) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:08 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1787, Kairal wrote:I was really hoping this would all be resolved by now. End of Day 1 is likely occur while I'm asleep I'll stick around for an hour or so but this is probably gonna be my last shot for discussion and voting. I'm gonna stick with BV. However it might be better for those of us voting AJ to move to Flubber- at least we'll get the lynch that way.
This post is not as clear as it should be. I mean that given Aj is the strongest scum player I would quite like to knock him out today. However it may be better to settle for the easier lynch in Flubber. As I said earlier though I'm letting BV call the shots. For now my vote is on AJ- unless you tell me you want to move the lynch elsewhere in the next hour or two then it'll stay on Aj because I'll be asleep.
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Post Post #1790 (isolation #356) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:55 am

Post by Kairal »

Alright I'm going to bed. I don't expect to be posting in the thread again today.

Our main priority today should be ensuring a lynch. Any lynch is better than a no lynch.

If I do end up getting dead it was a pleasure playing with you all. I got a bit heated at points but I had fun. No hard feelings I hope.

Good luck !
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Post Post #1827 (isolation #357) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:25 am

Post by Kairal »

It's flubber and culted. I was sure of this already but for more evidence check the last 24 hours or so before the lynch. The 6 town players are all checking in pretty frequently and discussing the votes. The 3 scum players disappear entirely. Aj at least comes up with an excuse.

The other two are just totally absent. This is because town are desperate to get a lynch knowing that a no lynch will likely lose us the game. Scum on the other hand are very happy for a no lynch. Thus they make no effort to compromise or be around at the critical time. The only question is which to go for first.
I think Flubber is probably more widely scumread. Aside from that once he flips culted's protection should be clear to the rest of you. Hopefully.

VOTE: Flubber
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Post Post #1828 (isolation #358) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:26 am

Post by Kairal »

mmm Massive's suspicion... I kind of feel like there's no use trying to persuade him. However he did unvote me yesterday which forced Dierfire to vote Aj. We could very easily be in Lylo if he hadn't.
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Post Post #1829 (isolation #359) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:33 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1779, Dierfire wrote:All right, we'll see.

@Everyone

I'm not sure whether we're getting any VC between now and the deadline, so if you move your vote between now and then could you also make sure that the VC is easily discernible? I believe that we are here now:

Unofficial Vote Count0 - Dierfire:
0 - BlackVoid:
3 - Kairal: Culted, Aj The Epic, Flubbernugget
2 - Flubbernugget: Naomi-Tan, Dierfire
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Naomi-Tan:
0 - culted:
0 - massive:
3 - Aj The Epic: Kairal, BlackVoid, I Am Innocent

Not voting: massive

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is (expired on 2017-01-13 15:30:00)
In post 1787, Kairal wrote:I was really hoping this would all be resolved by now. End of Day 1 is likely occur while I'm asleep I'll stick around for an hour or so but this is probably gonna be my last shot for discussion and voting. I'm gonna stick with BV. However it might be better for those of us voting AJ to move to Flubber- at least we'll get the lynch that way.
In post 1790, Kairal wrote:Alright I'm going to bed. I don't expect to be posting in the thread again today.

Our main priority today should be ensuring a lynch. Any lynch is better than a no lynch.

If I do end up getting dead it was a pleasure playing with you all. I got a bit heated at points but I had fun. No hard feelings I hope.

Good luck !
In post 1791, BlackVoid wrote:AJ it is then. Sorry Dierfire. @Massive, Naomi, please vote. There are literally six hours left to deadline.
Ok perhaps this will reassure massive. Ive included the unofficial VC at the time of my last posts before the lynch. You will note that excluding my vote there are two votes on Aj and two votes on Flubber.

As I state in my post this will be my last post before the deadline so I cannot change my vote after this. I am aware at this point that I basically have control over who gets lynched. By making it clear I cannot change my vote I take control of the lynch and force people reading me as town to vote with me. You'll see that BV basically states this in his next post.

Now if AJ and I are scum and Flubber is town- why do I choose Aj here? It would be much better for scum to remain unflipped. If however all 3 of us are scum then you lose nothing by helping me kill Flubber today anyway.
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Post Post #1830 (isolation #360) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:35 am

Post by Kairal »

One other thing. I suggested yesterday that if mafia were all goons the game might not be unbalanced with only two power roles. However AJ is a role cop. I do not buy at all that we have only 2 power roles then so massive's claim should be beyond doubt now.
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Post Post #1831 (isolation #361) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:39 am

Post by Kairal »

In post 1818, massive wrote:So you guys need to sell the town that this:

5 (LYNCH) - Aj The Epic: Kairal, BlackVoid, I Am Innocent, Naomi-Tan, Dierfire

was all town. I personally find it highly unlikely.
So... This is basically the argument I made with my VCA yesterday. That scum would never be caught voting as a bloc. The thing is once I've called attention to it (as I did yesterday), scum will clearly change up their pattern so it no longer applies. Thus they all voted for me.
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Post Post #1834 (isolation #362) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:02 am

Post by Kairal »

Ah thank you culted. I expected you'd double down on me. My guess is that your plan is to aim for a last day consisting of yourself, Dier, and IamI. Given IamI's public suspicions of Dier that's your best shot. You still need a mislynch to get there though...

Ok here's my guess on how you want things to go. Bus Flubber today, kill massive tonight. Mislynch Naomi (or me) tomorrow and night kill the other. That leaves you with the dream team for your final day.
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Post Post #1836 (isolation #363) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:14 am

Post by Kairal »

Well if I'm wrong you can have fun laughing at me post game. I'm not going to bother trying to convince you of your own scumminess though :p
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Post Post #1839 (isolation #364) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:33 am

Post by Kairal »

Ok so AJ and I were scum partners bussing each other rather than voting for town Flubber? Is that what you think happened?
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Post Post #1840 (isolation #365) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:35 am

Post by Kairal »

Like... does that actually make sense to you? Neither of us needed to die yesterday. The only reason AJ got lynched was because I proposed he was scum with Flubber and he flipped out. Prior to that he had basically no suspicion on him.
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Post Post #1842 (isolation #366) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:44 am

Post by Kairal »

In all honesty I think you won't let this go because you can't admit you were voting with 3 scum players. The fact that the confirmed scum wanted me dead, every confirmed town read me as town and every likely living town reads me as town would make anyone less stubborn rethink this. Somehow though you get: Kairal was instrumental in getting scum lynched therefore he must be scum.
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Post Post #1845 (isolation #367) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:49 am

Post by Kairal »

Btw massive that was culted - the ACTUAL SCUM- telling you this dog won't hunt. Not even he can justify a scum read on me at this point.
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Post Post #1848 (isolation #368) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:10 pm

Post by Kairal »

Ok so both our scum are bussing. I appreciate it guys. There's no need to drag this out like we did yesterday. Lets just pick one and move on.
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Post Post #1850 (isolation #369) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:16 pm

Post by Kairal »

If you have a problem you're going to have to tell me what it is.
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Post Post #1854 (isolation #370) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:21 pm

Post by Kairal »

Did you even read yesterday? Aj got lynched because I called him out. Would never have happened otherwise.
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Post Post #1855 (isolation #371) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:23 pm

Post by Kairal »

ah whatever. You were useless yesterday I don't know why I expected any better today.
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Post Post #1858 (isolation #372) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:32 pm

Post by Kairal »

The most useful thing you've contributed this entire game is an unvote so I am beyond caring. Naomi, Dier and IamI. I'd prefer to lynch Flubber but I'm also fine with culted.

Lets pick one.
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Post Post #1859 (isolation #373) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:37 pm

Post by Kairal »

Dier's already voting culted. I'll move there

VOTE: Culted

This brings him to L-1. There's no need to wait for claims or anything but if you have any qualms I guess we can spend the next 2 weeks (sigh) hashing it out.
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Post Post #1870 (isolation #374) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:58 pm

Post by Kairal »

Haha. Thanks for not dragging it out culted. I've realized I kind of turn into a jerk when I'm certain about stuff. Sorry about that.
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Post Post #1886 (isolation #375) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:32 pm

Post by Kairal »

Well I would but... I don't sing. Also I'm probably not supposed to post after a lynch so I'm just gonna stop now.
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Post Post #1888 (isolation #376) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:42 pm

Post by Kairal »

If it makes you feel better I was seriously considering the possibility that it could be Dier instead.
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Post Post #1899 (isolation #377) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:58 pm

Post by Kairal »

Yeah it's definitely Flubber. Which means Io was right 100% on Day one. And we lynched her for it. Hilarious really.
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Post Post #1903 (isolation #378) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:03 pm

Post by Kairal »

On the one hand I actually did miss IamI's vote. On the other hand I probably would still have hammered if I had seen it so... *shrug*
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Post Post #1904 (isolation #379) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:04 pm

Post by Kairal »

If he turns out to be town after all this it would be a pretty amazing troll.
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Post Post #1909 (isolation #380) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:31 pm

Post by Kairal »

Haha that was an interesting strat. Gamma one upped you by never doing them again though :p
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Post Post #1956 (isolation #381) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:51 am

Post by Kairal »

Culted said he did yesterday. That's my excuse.
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Post Post #1964 (isolation #382) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:14 am

Post by Kairal »

Well here we are. Final day. Lets finish em off.

VOTE: Flubber
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Post Post #1965 (isolation #383) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 1:34 pm

Post by Kairal »

Actually it would be sort of lame if that was my last post in the thread before we win so I'm gonna make a proper post on why Flubber is scum.
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Post Post #1966 (isolation #384) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 1:36 pm

Post by Kairal »

The following is a non-exhaustive list of reasons, in largely chronological order, for why I’m voting Flubber.

1) Day 1 and 2 he spent a significant amount of his time pushing a Jin case along with culted. They both insisted he was scummy but never provided any real reason.

2) On Day 3 despite Flubber hovering near the top of most of town’s scum reads, culted is extremely protective. We know now that culted was scum so this is a pretty large red flag.

3) My voting analysis indicated that AJ and Flubber were very likely scum partners- they were consistently opposed on most votes and major arguments

4) When AJ saw this argument he refused to vote for Flubber (despite ostensibly scum reading him) instead moving his vote to me- more protection for Flubber from a confirmed scum

5) Having been caught out by never agreeing the most likely course of action for a scum team is to throw off the pattern by immediately breaking it- in this case that means all voting for the same person. Flubber voted for me along with the two confirmed scum

6) For that matter the vote on me by Flubber was almost entirely unexplained. In the 15 days we had to choose a vote target and justify it Flubber decided on me with one line.

7) Day 3 got very close to a no lynch. 6 players made sure they were available during the last few days before deadline in order to ensure a lynch. Flubber and the two confirmed scum were all absent because they didn’t need a lynch

8) Io, BV and I all called Flubber as the most likely partner on a scum team with AJ and culted and we did so before there were any flips. I can’t prove that I’m town but the other two are confirmed at least.

9) I mentioned before that once a pattern is pointed out scum will try to change it up. On Day 4 both culted and Flubber vote for each other in their first posts – a clear reaction to culted being caught out for protecting Flubber on Day 3.
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Post Post #1973 (isolation #385) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:26 pm

Post by Kairal »

I was kinda hoping you'd just hammer yourself and save us all the time...

Dier unless you intend to vote yourself please just hammer Flubber and we can win.
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Post Post #1976 (isolation #386) » Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:22 am

Post by Kairal »

I see where you're coming from. I'm 100% sure that Flubber is our last member, but I assure you I'll carefully consider Dier if A) it's not Flubber B) I make it to tomorrow.
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Post Post #1978 (isolation #387) » Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:45 am

Post by Kairal »

Well as I said I'm sure it's Flubber. If it isn't then I'm gonna be reading through the whole game from scratch before making a decision. Off the top of my head I think Dier fits better into a scum team with Aj and culted then Naomi does.

However I have no idea how I'd feel after a re-read. You've seen me bring up Io and BV's positions so you know I do consider dead people's thoughts. I can't commit to anything stronger than that before doing a reread though and since I think it's Flubber I can't really be bothered reading the whole thread for a situation that I think is unlikely.

I tend to get impatient but yeah there's no need to rush.
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Post Post #1983 (isolation #388) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:03 pm

Post by Kairal »

Yes the four of us seem to be agreed that Flubber is today's lynch. Not much point trying to persuade Flubber of that so not much to say in general.

Just waiting on whatever it is Dier was doing. This post is basically just a prod dodge.
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Post Post #1988 (isolation #389) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:24 am

Post by Kairal »

Awesome. I said this a few times but now that it's confirmed it really is amazing that Io got the entire scum team right Day 1.
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Post Post #1993 (isolation #390) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 12:08 pm

Post by Kairal »

I feel you dealt with the CK thing as well as it could be. Ultimately it's just a game and there's no point in humoring unpleasant people.
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Post Post #1996 (isolation #391) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:25 pm

Post by Kairal »

Seems to me that the only thing we got from our power roles was a single green check. Didn't seem that strong. Btw can we get access to spec thread?
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Post Post #2011 (isolation #392) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:17 pm

Post by Kairal »

I see your point about how your excellent Day 1 didn't benefit you as much as it could have. It is interesting that you felt that way D3 since I felt like we had already lost. It was only once I saw your flip that I felt we had a chance. Even as it was you came very close to a win. Dier pretty much said he'd have voted me if I were an option. It's only because massive unvoted that he didn't. With me dead you'd have only need one more mislynch and Dier or Naomi were both very viable.

As far as the VCA goes? Well it was a bit of gamble that you'd make sure your votes were split. As it turns out however that was true- the three of you were never on the same side in any of the five votes I used. I don't think anyone else in town really agreed with the premise so I agree that it was pretty useless at persuading people. However I was totally lost before doing it and was certain I'd found you guys afterwards. It was very useful for me at least.

Frankly though I'm not very happy with any of the rest of my play this game. I got far too emotional far too often. The game is too stressful for me. I nearly replaced out several times. I'm not sure I'll be playing any more games- at the very least I intend to take a significant break.
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Post Post #2012 (isolation #393) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:31 pm

Post by Kairal »

Oh btw by 'spec thread' I meant dead thread Gamma.
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Post Post #2015 (isolation #394) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:09 pm

Post by Kairal »

In post 2013, Aj The Epic wrote:
In post 2011, Kairal wrote:Frankly though I'm not very happy with any of the rest of my play this game. I got far too emotional far too often. The game is too stressful for me. I nearly replaced out several times. I'm not sure I'll be playing any more games- at the very least I intend to take a significant break.
I suggest not. It gets very difficult to play this game after breaks, takes a long time to catch up. I've done it twice and still am not to the level I was before leaving. Was this game stressful? Yeah, but that's partly because I forced that with you. It was my intention to force that 1v1 into a lynch and I actually got pretty stressed over it too (I hate being caught as scum more than anything in this game. it feels downright awful). However I wasn't going to take the loss laying down, so I do apologize for that.

If nothing else, I suggest playing R2R games instead of full on taking a break. They're easier games and more a teaching environment (I used to do them because I could look for general theory trends when people weren't really covering up with WIFOM. It's great for working out stylistic kinks).
Ah nothing to do with you, or any other player really. I just find the game super stressful. Sorry I stressed you out! I imagine that would really suck yeah. I haven't really played scum yet thankfully.

I've only played like 4 games though so it's not like I have much to lose :p
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Post Post #2016 (isolation #395) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:11 pm

Post by Kairal »

That wasn't as clear as I would have liked. By super stressful I mean 'waking up at 3am and realizing I won't be able to sleep until I check the thread' kind of stressful. And I've felt that way with all the games I've played
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Post Post #2017 (isolation #396) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:13 pm

Post by Kairal »

Anyway despite that I did have a lot of fun. Don't want to make it seem like I was miserable the whole time or anything. Thanks for the game peeps.
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Post Post #2022 (isolation #397) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:06 am

Post by Kairal »

Thanks massive. I appreciate that.
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