Micro 676: Bill Wurtz Mafia (Game Over)

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Post Post #6  (isolation #0)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:07 pm

VOTE: Transcend
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Post Post #14  (isolation #1)  » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:12 am

Unvote
VOTE: CommKnight
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Post Post #31  (isolation #2)  » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:44 am

Comm wrote:There is no explanation for your immediate switch. I assume you'll say because I joined some band wagon or that putting someone at L2 this early is "scummy". Both terrible reasons.

You know, it's quite rude to assume.
Comm wrote:Do not forget, you also voted for him, thus any unvote warrants that you randomly voted as a poor joke vote or to seem active in the first stage of the Day 1.

Are you aware of site meta?
Comm wrote:By unvoting you take away someone from claiming and having real discussion happen for the rest of Day 1.

I disagree with the premise that an early claim on d1 is good for town; this is sort of the common consensus on mafiascum as well.

Comm wrote:Simple. A claim early on is good for town, it gives us plenty of time to discuss. However, one has already made his motives clear with no words spoken from his unvote. Do tell me if I'm wrong to assume not explaining a vote and unvote while also delaying discussion to be scum motivated. Correct?

If you want a more serious theory discussion of this I'm happy to give it to you; an early claim is bad relative to a late claim for two reasons. One, asking an arbitrary person to claim is a bad idea as that person may later have become obvious town, making their claimed status a detriment; two, to more directly address the point you're making, it warps discussion around the claim. A great example of this is one of my recently completed games (Gamma Emerald was in it as well); we had a town ascetic claim on page one, and discussion warped entirely around that claim for the next several pages. He was then counterclaimed and the entire day's discussion warped around the two of them. This kind of discussion is generally easy for scum to hide in because they don't have to take nuanced stances; they can merely say "I believe/disbelieve the claim because X" and claim relative ignorance of the rest of the game.
Comm wrote:This is a quick set-up game. No real specialties going on. It's safe to assume there's at least a cop and doctor active with possible other town PRs if we have 3 mafia.

Okay, you clearly don't know site meta if you think this. This is simply not true. I can pretty much guarantee that there's no doctor if there is a cop unless scum have a roleblocker or strongman or the like. And even then, that combination has drifted massively out of style over the course of the past decade. It's incredibly rare to have roles that are worth claiming in combination with roles that can protect them. Especially in such a small game. It's also *VERY* probably 2:7 (or even 2:1:6) rather than 3:6.
Perhaps he hoped to skirt by without someone noticing that lack of contribution to the discussion even this early on.

Why yes, I am quite guilty of skirting by for the first several hours of the game. How dare I.
Parama wrote:current impression is that Comm is town but very misguided. dunno about anyone else.

Ever so slight tendency to agree.
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Post Post #35  (isolation #3)  » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:53 am

Anyway, my actual reasons to have voted Comm include:
-I often like to make a vote switch on page one; it usually generates discussion in a good way.
-He votes and says that he wants to force a claim, yet says that he'll fos any additional voters, which is a direct contradiction under the typical site meta of claiming at L-1+hammer threat. This is of course resolved because it's clear Comm does not know site meta.

I have a somewhat scummy first impression of Kain. The Comm vote looks somewhat awkward/opportunistic simply by virtue of only happening after mine, yet having reasoning that was already available when Kain made post . jumps to conclusions, accusing Comm of refusing to take his vote off and tunneling pretty shortly after the vote on Transcend. It looks like jumping on the easy target. The last line of reads as trying to keep options open to switch to a wagon on me if Comm starts being read as town.

Unvote
VOTE: Kain
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Post Post #36  (isolation #4)  » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:54 am

In post 33, Transcend wrote:Nvm i don't tr tweet

I tr connan

I thought tweet L-2'd me when i was phone scrolling, but it was connan

Fun fact. Last game I played was 2:5. Day one ended in a quicklynch on page 1. The L-3 and L-0 votes were from town. The L-2 and L-1 votes were from scum. Of course this is just a single case, but etc.

Why is page 1 wagoning a towntell in and of itself? This seems like a pretty lazy first post of the game.
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Post Post #38  (isolation #5)  » Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:02 am

In post 37, Transcend wrote:I felt the vote was genuine rather than opportunistic.

Btw I'm not here to wow you with my opinions, I'm just here to lynch scum

you didn't even correctly read who made the vote the first time you looked at it :S

w/e. If the reason goes beyond simply voting you then it's a more minor gripe.
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Post Post #66  (isolation #6)  » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:49 am

Transcend wrote:I don't know why he stopped why he started

Well if you're not going to read my posts because they're walls then maybe there's a reason that you don't know why i've done things ^_^

CommKnight wrote:As I said, I'm comfortable with my earlier analysis.

Your earlier analysis... that I'm flying under the radar... when I'm clearly not?

Isn't analysis that someone has a particular strategy of flying under the radar contingent on them, you know, doing that?

Transcend wrote:I get reads quickly as well. I can't speak for syr, but games on my home site last on average 20 minutes.

Quick reads in a forum mafia setting are extremely different from quick reads in an IRC setting.

Still have more to say but heading to work shortly.
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Post Post #75  (isolation #7)  » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:08 pm

@Transcend: what do you think of Storm's vote vs Kain's vote (and further justification)?

@Syryana: I am quite curious to hear more. What are you referring to with regards to setup spec?

@Stormcloud:
Not necessarily inclined to say it's scummy, but your vote hop to CK is a bit strange. Thinking over your reads is well and good but flipping your read from a justified nullread to a justified scumread over the course of two posts is a bit odd, since you presumably read over CK's posts before calling him a nullread. Did you see the line where he said he was locking in his vote on me when you made post , or did you just entirely miss it? Given that Kain also used it to further justify his vote in it seems like a strange thing to miss (although I actually missed that line of CK's post and misinterpreted what Kain was referring to so :X). With early reads, your mileage may vary from player to player or from game to game (I've had games where I struggle to form any solid reads the entirety of day one, I've had games where I come out of page ~3ish with several strong townreads and occasionally a decent scumread).
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Post Post #88  (isolation #8)  » Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:26 am

In post 87, Parama wrote:(keep your posts as short as the average bill wurtz video, is all i'm saying)

This is fine but I would also prefer avoiding more than, oh, let's go with octuple-posts.
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Post Post #89  (isolation #9)  » Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:28 am

I'm also good with that for now.
Unvote
VOTE: Transcend
(L-2 I believe)

I'll get back to Kain later.
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Post Post #100  (isolation #10)  » Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:17 am

Transcend, was there any particular reason you chose this game to debut this new methodology?
When did you decide you'd be playing this game in this way? Right before making post 49?

I'm having a bit of trouble seeing this whole spiel as intellectually genuine; the reasoning in looks suspiciously identical to typical reasoning with the one smallish added wrinkle that you ignore me and kain because you think the two of us aren't a team. Apart from that it's entirely PoE. In fact that too is PoE. As far as I can tell this is pretty much the same old reasoning that mafia players typically used but dressed up with some fancy hats. And it feels somewhat manufactured.
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Post Post #230  (isolation #11)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:09 am

Forgive me for I am about to either wallpost or spampost because i've been watching a speedrun since i got back from work. Alas.
Comm wrote:Switching a vote without explaining reasoning is something a scum easily slips up.

This is incredibly silly. If I'm scum, I know that there's a chance I'll be found suspicious or noteworthy for switching a vote without a reason. This isn't an "easy slip up." This is an incredibly easily avoidable mistake as scum, if it is actually a mistake. Scum do not "just need to lynch town." They need to lynch town and avoid looking scummy so that they aren't lynched instead/lynched on future days. If I'm scum and re-voting without reason is really such an egregious mistake as you imply it is, then I as scum have no reason to do it... I can simply give reasoning or not switch my vote.

You're right that I can theoretically have made up the motivation for my vote on you after the fact but that does not give me motivation to do it as scum. If you're saying that the motivation is to lynch you then I seriously question your characterization of an L-4 singleton vote as "opportunistic."

Engaging with you is pointless anyway if you're locking yourself into a vote, especially considering how full of yourself you seem; it's just so backwards that you're locking your vote on me with the (at least partial) logic that we can't have solid discussion without a claim yet you flatly refusing to consider other possibilities until I claim stifles the degree of analysis you can give.

It's really just a nice stark contrast to see you, a stereotypical player who seems convinced that their way is the one true way to play mafia and they are just so much better than others (at least, that's the vibe i get from 119), next to storm, the first player I've seen in a long time who seems to show a shred of humility. Alas.
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Post Post #231  (isolation #12)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:20 am

I tend to think Syryana and Storm are town at this point. Can justify either of those further if desired. I like Kain's argumentation towards storm, so he leans more town at this point. I also still lean town on Comm, but only weakly. I think he could quite easily just be tunneling me so that he doesn't have to give nuanced opinions, but gut says it's a bit more likely he'd be making this kind of play as town. I guess it ultimately comes down to evaluating how likely it is that Comm would genuinely have the thought process that would lead to fossing me this strongly as town, since it's somewhat likely that the mere fact of tunneling is a null playstyle trait. Unfortunately and quite clearly I'm not going to be able to put myself in his shoes very effectively.

MT wrote:I find this explanation pretty believable. @Implo, what do you think?

It's believable enough. I mean, it was sort of a minor point to begin with. I tend to think that the mere fact of an RVS wagon or an "opportunistic" RVS vote is somewhat mitigated by the fact that scum have little reason to do something so overt so early except to try to garner towncred. The vote was as much for the other minor things I mentioned. But I think they're not as significant as the reasons to townread Kain for his rhetoric towards Storm.

Not sure yet what to think of Morning Tweet. The way she talks to Storm at the beginning is interesting; it seems decently town-motivated but there's a definite potential scum motivation there of asking questions and starting to get into the thick of things and read the pulse of the game before committing to reads, since she doesn't explicitly say what she thinks about Storm until agreeing with Parama in . Until then she somewhat implies a scumread by calling Storm's reasoning non-genuine but *shrug*. I do like the direction of the questions she's been asking; they're good questions.

Parama/Gamma are null for now I think.
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Post Post #233  (isolation #13)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:32 am

As for Transcend: I still think he's scummy. Frankly it feels like he's trying way too hard relative to how it felt like he played in my other game with him. In that game he seemed overall irreverent, making snyde comments and commenting on a sort of arbitrary subset of the things that were being said (of course it was a large normal so there's a difference there but etc). Something feels off about his entry into the game and I think it's that it feels like he's going "hey guys I have reads look at me." I sort of have trouble seeing a snap reaction to of "this vote on me looks genuine". Which is what Transcend claims his snap judgment was. My personal snap judgment of that post is "that's a lot of words for an RVS post" (to be clear, at this point I don't really have an opinion on it). It just seems like he wanted to call it a genuine post to say "hey guys, I'm townreading the guy who put me at L-2, look at me, I don't care if I'm lynched, I must be town!" I think that scum motivation is more likely than the likelihood of him reading that post, thinking it was particularly genuine, misreading who made the post, and deciding to open the game with that.

The way he's doing the PoE stuff still feels somewhat manufactured for reasons The future rhetoric around it makes his gamma vote look like a lazy vote that avoids him having to further justify it. He ends up effectively abandoning the team reasoning anyway and going with a fos-driven vote on me.

There's also a gut feeling that his demeanor is meaningfully tonally different from the last game I played with him, which is harder to elaborate on.
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Post Post #234  (isolation #14)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:36 am

tl;dr
T->S
Syr ~ Storm >> Kain > Comm ~ MT > Parama ~ Gamma >> Transcend
lots of those I'm not sure how strong they are and some of the ~s might be >s but etc.
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Post Post #253  (isolation #15)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:18 am

In post 245, Parama wrote:
In post 119, CommKnight wrote:For balance reasons, I'm willing to place my bet on there being either 2 town PR's and a mafia PR or if it really is all VT, then there is definitely a 3rd party. As 2 mafia in a 7 VT vs 2 would be a bit unfair for them and 3 mafia vs 6 VT would be unfair to us. It's just at that number where a PR or 3rd party must be active to balance things out. Which in games with a Neutral 3rd party (one who can win with any) or who's win conditions do not stop town's win conditions, I do not mind aiding by the way. Town of Salem which people seem to keep pinning me to (even though it's only one medium I play on... hah... medium... curse...), people on there are rather... ignorant. For example, if we have a known executioner and their target is a useless role, I'm willing to sacrifice a useless role to gain a non-killable townie (they would've won so no reason to side with mafia and counts as a confirmed vote against them for LYLO). Even survivors, who can vest and when mixed with a transporter can create a movable shield for town. However, in RT mafia, most players are unable to think that critically and just see "not town" as inherently bad. For those who've played the game and know the Jester role, I've managed to help a Jester win while getting a mafia killed. Mafia were tricking town, but I whispered the Jester to kill a certain somebody if he guiltied him. Well, I managed to get mafia to guilty him and got 2 birds with one stone.

for someone complaining about people making too short of posts, this entire paragraph is literally useless fluff and it's like a quarter of your wallpost

Gonna be honest didn't actually read this until now
but tl;dr 2 vanilla scum vs 7 VTs is VERY scumsided both in theory and in practice (see: the current newbie setup).

Also the mod has said this setup is normal which means the only third party that can even possibly exist is a serial killer. In case no one's mentioned that yet.

Actually it's just straight-up illogical that you're saying 7:2 mountainous is townsided and 7:2 with two town PRs and a scum PR is balanced?
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Post Post #256  (isolation #16)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:24 am

In post 254, Parama wrote:
In post 213, Syryana wrote:
In post 199, Stormcloud wrote:[3] Transcend (Gamma Emerald, Parama, implosion)

@Transcend: Bolded.

yup, i'm scum with gamma, you got me

Do you really think that the faint echoes of Gamma's RVS vote are something that you'd avoid going along with as scum with him? I personally wouldn't have had any problem making my vote if I were scum with him.
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Post Post #257  (isolation #17)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:24 am

In post 255, Parama wrote:
In post 233, implosion wrote:As for Transcend: I still think he's scummy. Frankly it feels like he's trying way too hard relative to how it felt like he played in my other game with him.

aaahh, crap,

UNVOTE:
VOTE: implosion

no no no no no no
(NOOOO)

i think this is L-1 tbh, someone hammer, this is scum & i'm probably wrong on transcend

If your problem is with me using a single game for meta i can point you to an example of me doing this in a game that recently finished where i got a strong read on someone based on a single game with them

if it's not then clarify
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Post Post #259  (isolation #18)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:27 am

In post 258, Parama wrote:p-edit: the problem is you're using meta

I do that as town these days (see first paragraph in that post)
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Post Post #260  (isolation #19)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:27 am

In particular my townread on penguin in that game was both very divisive and heavily based on a single game of meta
(and correct, but anecdote etc)
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Post Post #262  (isolation #20)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:31 am

In post 261, Transcend wrote:Oh but

I'm town

good to hear
it means more when you say it more than once
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Post Post #317  (isolation #21)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:21 am

I have relatively little more to say.

Parama is being a twit for voting me for an objectively debunkable reason.
Kain's vote on me seems completely arbitrary.
I think everyone in this game except Comm can agree the reasoning for his vote on me is awful.
Transcend's vote is frankly the least objectionable but I still think he's scum.

The wagon on me is really, really terrible. I'm curious why you're considering intent to hammer, syryana, given you've stated three people you'd rather lynch than me. The game's nominally stalled for like 1 RL day for reasons that are primarily gamma declaring a 6 day VLA. That hardly seems like reason to declare intent to hammer on a nullread in a game that's in a state that's generating useful information from competing wagons.

I'm happy to chat with anyone tomorrow. But seriously, just look at the stated reasoning for my wagon. Comm voted me for an "opportunistic" L-4 vote on him and refuses to remove the vote out of pure obstinateness. Parama's vote is based on a single fact, that I used meta, which I have clearly shown I do in town games. Kain gave some nonsensical reasoning and self-described his vote as an opportunistic wagon jump.

Transcend's vote on me isn't really bad but other things point to him being scum. I honestly just don't see a shred of a solid reason for town-Transcend to be disheartened at this game. He had a few votes on him, got me to L-1 but didn't (yet) lynch me, and then claimed he lost all motivation and gave up.

Does that seriously sound like town genuinely trying to figure the game out?

No, it sounds like scum who sees their eventual lynch as inevitable and who doesn't think they can make legitimate arguments to convince more people to join them in voting the person they're pushing.
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Post Post #318  (isolation #22)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:22 am

in particular i'll likely be around for the next ~hour to chat if anyone wants to, then the fire emblem speedrun comes on and my attention will likely focus there.
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Post Post #327  (isolation #23)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:31 am

I wouldn't accuse most players of it. I accuse Transcend specifically of it because his other game was so materially different and it's the simplest way to explain it.

None of his posts in the other game I played with him (link if anyone cares) looked like he was trying to look like town, or really had any particular care for how people viewed him.

He never talked about himself early, he just fluffposted and gave lots of reads. Compare , , , etc, etc. Lots of these posts look like posts where he cares how the posts are perceived. Some of this is at a gut level, but other small things like are good examples where he's explaining his playstyle, presumably in an attempt to get people to understand "this is how i play as town." That isn't what I saw from transcend in the other game, he just didn't seem to care how he was perceived.
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Post Post #329  (isolation #24)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:32 am

Kain i would really appreciate if you can reason with me a bit.

I think you're town, and you're really not giving me any opportunity to try to reason with you or understand the logic behind what you're doing.
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Post Post #330  (isolation #25)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:32 am

In post 328, Transcend wrote:Imp give your final thoughts if town or your pr reads if scum i guess

Not a big fan of that hammer but whatever

do you actually think that was a real hammer or are you being facetious?
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Post Post #331  (isolation #26)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:34 am

and do you ACTUALLY think that i, as scum, would be fooled by that given that I *just* enumerated the people on my wagon.

Twice.

In the last post I made.

About 15 minutes ago.

I honestly just do not believe that you're being genuine right now, Transcend. Walk me through how that post makes sense to make.
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Post Post #333  (isolation #27)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:35 am

In post 332, Transcend wrote:Pedit: okay yeah i knew it was a fake hammer but we hadn't had a vc in a while so i wanted to see if it would get a rxn out of you by making it look more realistic.

I don't believe you
it makes no sense to reaction test me in that situation for the reasons i just mentioned
you're just trying to get towncred.
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Post Post #335  (isolation #28)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:38 am

In post 334, Transcend wrote:I just now tried to consider you town and you didn't budge

so because you are "trying to consider me as town," I am obligated to townread you or you'll continue to scumread me?
Am I misinterpreting this? because this actually makes 0 sense.
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Post Post #336  (isolation #29)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:39 am

If I'm not misinterpreting that then that's just like
if you're town your read on me should be mostly independent of my read on you
ESPECIALLY when you yourself claim that you're bad at being read as town, you should be understanding if i could be town who's misreading you.
It makes 0 sense for you to say anything you've said on this page as town.
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Post Post #339  (isolation #30)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:42 am

In post 337, Transcend wrote:If you're town i expect you to take everything i say at face value and not immediately shut down everything i say.

i'm literally asking you to clarify
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Post Post #340  (isolation #31)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:43 am

In post 335, implosion wrote:
In post 334, Transcend wrote:I just now tried to consider you town and you didn't budge

so because you are "trying to consider me as town," I am obligated to townread you or you'll continue to scumread me?
Am I misinterpreting this? because this actually makes 0 sense.

In post 336, implosion wrote:If I'm not misinterpreting that then that's just like
if you're town your read on me should be mostly independent of my read on you
ESPECIALLY when you yourself claim that you're bad at being read as town, you should be understanding if i could be town who's misreading you.
It makes 0 sense for you to say anything you've said on this page as town.

i actually have no idea what you are claiming to want from me
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Post Post #342  (isolation #32)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:44 am

i literally want you to explain why you're doing the things you're doing as town because it doesn't make sense and you're just dodging the questions by saying i'm discrediting you
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Post Post #343  (isolation #33)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:44 am

In post 331, implosion wrote:Walk me through how that post makes sense to make.
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Post Post #345  (isolation #34)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:45 am

i cannot believe you when you claim to be town if you are going to misrepresent my posts that are very clearly and explicitly trying to reason with you and claiming that they're discrediting you at face, and then call me scum for discrediting you at face which i am very obviously not doing.
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Post Post #347  (isolation #35)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:47 am

i will ask again.

Please explain why you tried to reaction test me when it clearly wasn't going to work since I had just listed the people on my wagon, and
Please explain what this means:
I just now tried to consider you town and you didn't budge so I'm assuming you're gonna try and get me mislynched before going down.

if it does not mean that you expect me to budge on my read of you or else you're going to keep scumreading me.
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Post Post #348  (isolation #36)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:47 am

In post 346, Transcend wrote:What things do you want clarified? I really don't care how i play the game and I'm not observant of what I'm doing unless it's a strategy/gambit.

well maybe you should learn how to have some semblance of self-awareness if you're claiming that you have trouble being read as town :igmeou:
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Post Post #351  (isolation #37)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:52 am

I'd appreciate some others' opinions on the last page.
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Post Post #353  (isolation #38)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:59 am

I'm not claiming that you're being scummy in every post. I explicitly said I don't find your vote on me particularly bad.

Of course I'm trying to avoid death. Survivalism is not a scumtell. Coincidentally the competing wagon is on my main scumtell.

Do you really think survivalism is a scumtell? Have you never seen town act survivalistically? Sure, it's contrary to your playstyle, but that's just a playstyle.
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Post Post #356  (isolation #39)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:03 am

oh you know generic frustration the usual
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Post Post #358  (isolation #40)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:07 am

i mean it curbs it certainly. but bleh. I don't like being misrepped.
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Post Post #402  (isolation #41)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:02 pm

I think it was pretty obvious from the way you were defending me. I'm willing to bet you were gonna die tonight. But it's fine. I think we've gotten a lot out of this day 1.

My crumb's in post 75, bonus points to anyone who can find it~
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Post Post #403  (isolation #42)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:05 pm

Spoiler: The breadcrumb
1st letter of 1st word of 1st sentence, 1st letter of 2nd word of 2nd sentence, 1st letter of 3rd word of 3rd sentence, etc in the first post where i refer to stormcloud:
In post 75, implosion wrote:@Stormcloud:
Not necessarily inclined to say it's scummy, but your vote hop to CK is a bit strange. Thinking over your reads is well and good but flipping your read from a justified nullread to a justified scumread over the course of two posts is a bit odd, since you presumably read over CK's posts before calling him a nullread. Did you see the line where he said he was locking in his vote on me when you made post , or did you just entirely miss it? Given that Kain also used it to further justify his vote in it seems like a strange thing to miss (although I actually missed that line of CK's post and misinterpreted what Kain was referring to so :X). With early reads, your mileage may vary from player to player or from game to game (I've had games where I struggle to form any solid reads the entirety of day one, I've had games where I come out of page ~3ish with several strong townreads and occasionally a decent scumread).
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Post Post #484  (isolation #43)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:10 pm

In post 414, Parama wrote:
In post 26, Parama wrote:try: using a RVS wagon to try and bait a claim
something you blatantly obviously did and kaintepes also caught onto


wow, look at that, i'm a mason too
that breadcrumb is actually complete crap

This is a really crap argument (from both a mathematical and a logical standpoint, the odds of there being something in my post that i found randomly with the degree of patternedness that i displayed is low enough to ignore) but it doesn't matter anyway.

I don't want to lynch syryana. If there's anyone i'd be willing to lynch other than transcend it's frankly gamma... but that's mostly out of annoyance at him. But also partially because he really is the only reason that this game isn't straightforward right now. Eliminating him gets rid of anything other than straight reads in this game (I doubt there are any PRs other than storm and I).
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Post Post #494  (isolation #44)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:13 pm

In post 487, Stormcloud wrote:Wait for Gamma or a replacement so we can actually get a read on that slot.

I'd like this but the pace of this game is so fast that his not being here for so long has actually stalled it from a solving perspective.
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Post Post #501  (isolation #45)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:16 pm

bleh. My reads are probably crap.

Unvote

Might as well slow the game down a bit for now.
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Post Post #502  (isolation #46)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:16 pm

I do think syr is town. And I have inklings of town from tweet/parama/kain/comm. I don't think any of them are as strong as what I saw in syr but i'll look at it again.
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Post Post #676  (isolation #47)  » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:22 am

Comm wrote:Don't pretend we'd ever figure something like that out from that very very vague "crumb".

The whole point of it is that you aren't supposed to be able to.
Comm wrote:Finally, was I wrong for wanting a claim D1? It outed two people, however, it definitely supplied plenty of reads worth of material.

To put it simply, a claim at some point on d1 is inevitable. We just want it to be mafia who makes the claim. Not the masons who are now both going to die the next two nights and leave the town with no power. Which is why we talk and reason before we lock onto one player, so that the person we force to claim is more likely to be scum!

Spoiler: Wallpost that's only really relevant if you're storm
In post 610, Stormcloud wrote:Nvm had you confused with someone else. You have always had Transcend and Parama in your lynchpool.
If you are town I'm gonna have to move past my paranoia of buddying and work with you I guess.

Paranoia of buddying is healthy. Just like paranoia of anything else. Town will do it, scum will do it.
In post 625, Stormcloud wrote:I'm really sorry if I've messed up the game guys. I just want to know what is so bad about my thoughts and where my logic is wrong and what exactly I should be looking for. I know it's not a newbie game or anything but I'm not gonna learn much from "your opinions are bad".

You're playing perfectly well. You're thinking things through and coming to your own conclusions, and reasoning with other people. That's all anyone can really ask for.
In post 631, Stormcloud wrote:I don't know what to think right now. I feel like everything I have is just gut.

This is the lovely thing about drawing mason or innocent child or being the confirmed player; you get to have the least information to go off of. From our point of view there are 7 players and most likely 5 are VTs and 2 are goons (or maybe a scum PR, who knows).
I think I assume all town players will post and look and think like me and that's just not true because of different playstyles.

In post 634, Stormcloud wrote:Yes I agree, but I'm not sure how to break that habit and account for playstyles as I read

The way that I generally try to overcome this bias is to think about motivations. Any player, regardless of their playstyle or yours, will have made each of their posts for a reason. You have to look at any given post and think about what the possible motivation behind that post would be if that player is town, and what the possible motivation behind that post would be if the player is scum. Ultimately you'll pretty much never be able to rule either out completely, of course, but in many cases one will make much more sense than the other. For example, a player putting themself in a compromising position with regards to how they're being read without gaining anything tangible out of it can in some cases be a strong towntell.
In post 669, Stormcloud wrote:I also think that trying to predict the scum based on which mason dies tonight (if one does die) is a bad idea because the scum could easily kill the mason that is wrong, taking their chances defending themselves against the other one. And implosion and I do share a few reads I think anyway so I just think that idea is really weird.

We should certainly spend some time during night phase going over reads. I imagine you're a bit more likely to die just because you're being more active, but it is mostly meaningless to speculate on it.
Keep you waiting, hour after hour
Every night in your lonely tower
Looking down at all of the wreckage
When we met you'd never expect this

implosion
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Post Post #751  (isolation #48)  » Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:06 am

In post 731, Parama wrote:i also still think it's very likely gamma is scum for what it's worth. but that's probably just because there's literally no way to read that slot and there's to many other people i have varying degrees of townreads on.

I honestly just cannot really get past this. I have some reason or another to think that pretty much everyone alive is town at this point and i can't meaningfully compare them in a game this small when there's a slot who hasn't posted anything.

I don't think it's lazy to want to lynch gamma right now. It's simply acknowledging that most people alive look varying amounts town and then going "hmmmm".

I don't think parama's a great lynch right now. I like his reasoning on the transcend flip. I like the way he's pressuring syr, though I don't think syr is a great lynch either. I think his points on transcend are decently strong but I'm still not sure how I feel about him overall.

There's no one alive right now other than gamma whose lynch doesn't make me feel bad for one reason or another. Granted that is normal for me as town but etc, like I said, I can't really figure out who I want to lynch without gamma having done anything. In particular if transcend is scum gamma is fairly likely his partner i think, as having an afk scumbuddy would explain transcend's frustration.
Keep you waiting, hour after hour
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Looking down at all of the wreckage
When we met you'd never expect this

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Post Post #752  (isolation #49)  » Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:08 am

I'm happy to listen WRT tweet if people have points on her other than PoE.
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When we met you'd never expect this

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Post Post #863  (isolation #50)  » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:53 am

When I get motivation my first thing to do will be to elucidate what strikes me as town about syryana.
Keep you waiting, hour after hour
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Looking down at all of the wreckage
When we met you'd never expect this

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Post Post #864  (isolation #51)  » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:53 am

and/or reread him in general.
Keep you waiting, hour after hour
Every night in your lonely tower
Looking down at all of the wreckage
When we met you'd never expect this

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Post Post #1462  (isolation #52)  » Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:13 pm

I choose to completely blame parama for my one day in this game being all over the place. If he had just sat quietly and let me tunnel transcend... :X

gg, good job people~
Keep you waiting, hour after hour
Every night in your lonely tower
Looking down at all of the wreckage
When we met you'd never expect this


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