Micro 676: Bill Wurtz Mafia (Game Over)

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Post Post #700 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:13 am

Post by Transcend »

So who's hyped for the return of Gamma in 2 days time
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Post Post #701 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:20 am

Post by Stormcloud »

It's basically kinda like having a replacement because he's gonna have to read through and catch up and he'll have a fresh outside perspective on things.
I'm curious to see what he thinks of the game.
I'm gonna have a real v/la next weekend sadly. I'll be in airports/hotels so it's possible i'll have times with tons of access followed by very little.
I will be back by deadline on Tuesday morning :)
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Post Post #702 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:30 am

Post by Parama »

In post 692, KainTepes wrote:I AM SAYING LYNCH ONE AND IF NOT CORRECT LYNCH THE OTHER WE ARE BOUND TO CATCH ONE SCUM
this is a bad strategy. you should know why this is a bad strategy.
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Post Post #703 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:31 am

Post by Parama »

In post 694, Stormcloud wrote:It implies that he thinks there's one scum in {Parama, Syryana} so if we lynch both we're guaranteed one scum.
I don't think that's always true, I think it's very possible that you're both wrong town.
Parama you seemed very certain of Transcend earlier, and now you seem very certain on Syry. Is that how you always scumhunt, without any doubt in your mind that you're correct?
if the scum don't believe you've caught them there's no pressure
plus i do have way more confidence in my reads than in anyone else's
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Post Post #704 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:35 am

Post by Stormcloud »

Lining up lynches is not good.
Not sure if it's something KT suggests regardless of alignment but I'm inclined to think that's pretty scummy.
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Post Post #705 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:39 am

Post by Stormcloud »

Alright, then I will try being confident in my reads.
Parama, you're dying today. I've tried to keep an open mind but I don't see myself changing my mind at this point.
Tweet, implo, are you comfortable joining the wagon? If not, what are your concerns?
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Post Post #706 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:48 am

Post by Parama »

that's nice. syr's dying today though.
point out to me why you think syr's town, if you will?
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Post Post #707 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:52 am

Post by Stormcloud »

I don't need to convince you.
I need to convince the rest of the town. They seem to already be fairly close to agreeing though. That's why I asked what their concerns are.
I don't think I'm going to convince you that Syr is town, any more than you can convince me that you're town.
Is that true? Is there anything I could possibly tell you about my thoughts regarding Syryana that are going to suddenly change your very confident read on her? I don't think there are so I don't want to waste my breath.
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Post Post #708 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:59 am

Post by Stormcloud »

In post 181, Morning Tweet wrote: So far I've learned from readable posts that Stormcloud is town, and I want to say Syr is likely town for having a similar thought process to mine.
I'm reading Tweet as town, and although this was pretty early in the game she's echoing my thoughts on Syryana. I think Syry's thought processes and switches of focus have been genuine and natural. She was never keen on the implosion lynch, she perked up once Transcend was on the the table. Her switch to Parama (I think, I might have to go back and check) came before I expressed any strong Parama suspicions (I had them for a while before I said anything, so I don't think she was sheeping me there).
She has been a little bit too friendly at times with the "dearie" in one post. Don't love that and it's not like she's locktown never ever gonna vote her or anything.
But nothing about her seems off to me like it clearly does to you. I've read her ISO and the relevant sections of the implo and Transcend pushes a dozen times and nothing there is majorly bothering me.
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Post Post #709 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:15 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

Alright, went back and checked. Syry's switch to Parama is more suspicious than I initially thought, but I think I believed that he was gone (as in, not lurking but rather not online at all) during the time between post 506 and post 599 where he votes for Parama and follows me. Obviously the Transcend wagon was dissolved at this point and the confirmed town is voting for Syry's other main scumread (apart from Gamma who's gone). If Syry had not been suspicious of Parama before and suddenly voted for him out of nowhere, that would be pretty scummy, but he's always had Parama in his lynchpool so the move makes total sense to me.
Also he tries to explain the Parama scumread way back in 171 and it's a hilariously bad explanation. That screams town to me - scum would have made up some reason related to the game and tried to make it look like a legit read.
Not saying it couldn't be faked, but why give a gut scumread with basically no logic, admit it's a terrible explanation, just so that you can later join that wagon and have it not look opportunistic? I don't buy it. Syryana has been very consistent thought process wise and I love post 171.
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Post Post #710 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:19 pm

Post by Morning Tweet »

Storm, are there any Parama posts in specific that rub you the wrong way? While I prefer his lynch to Syry I'm having trouble scumreading him logically.
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Post Post #711 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:26 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

My main issue with Parama is the switch between wanting Transcend's blood REALLY AGGRESSIVELY, and then suddenly switching to Syry and now he's working with Transcend with no suspicion of him at all, it seems.
I'll see if I can show you any posts that really bother me in particular.

I actually liked Parama early in the game, it's only after the whole Transcend wagon that I started to get a scumread on him.
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Post Post #712 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:29 pm

Post by Morning Tweet »

Ok, thanks.
In post 639, Parama wrote:my scumread on transcend weakened because the stuff after i called out transcend faking like he was hammered felt like genuine frustration
it could be scum frustration sure but it gave me townvibes
Have you checked out this post?
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Post Post #713 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:33 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

In post 379, Parama wrote:no, it's not, Storm come and hammer
In post 421, Parama wrote:no no no transcend's "i'm dead and i was town" post is so fake, he was the same person who tried to reaction test implosion like literally a few hours ago, he knew full well he wasn't hammered and wanted to act like he was
In post 422, Parama wrote:
In post 417, Stormcloud wrote:Transcend as much as I wanna use that "twilight" post as a towntell, you're an experienced player. I think you knew it wasn't a hammer.
YES HE DID KNOW IT'S SO FAKE AAUGH
In post 425, Parama wrote:i trust it less after the crumb than before the crumb, but i still want to lynch transcend first
In post 448, Parama wrote:i'd be up for lynching syr
In post 492, Parama wrote:UNVOTE:
VOTE: Syrana

we can make the dream happen
Parama claims that in between 425 and 448 Transcend's frustration seemed town to him, so that's why he left the wagon. I guess I'm just not buying that explanation.
I mean, my read on Transcend also changed during that time, but it was very very slowly and I'm still fairly suspicious of him. I didn't go from wanting his blood to suddenly agreeing with his alternative lynch suggestion.
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Post Post #714 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:35 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

Tweet, yes I have. It's not a crazy explanation by any means, there's just something going on here that I don't like. I'm finding it hard to explain though.
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Post Post #715 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:48 pm

Post by KainTepes »

In post 702, Parama wrote:
In post 692, KainTepes wrote:I AM SAYING LYNCH ONE AND IF NOT CORRECT LYNCH THE OTHER WE ARE BOUND TO CATCH ONE SCUM
this is a bad strategy. you should know why this is a bad strategy.
WHY,, it is always GOOD STRATEGY to trade ONE TOWN FOR ONE SCUM,, i WILL GLADLY TRADE ME LIFE TO KILL A SCUM
I AM KAIN TEPES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Post Post #716 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:54 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

Because there's a decent chance neither is scum and then we're really in a bad spot.
But the bigger reason is, you don't line up lynches. When someone flips, town gains information. Most of the time on day 2, you'll have two flips and maybe even a PR with a result if you're lucky. You never just blindly lynch the other person in the pair without taking all that information into account. It might be that they still look like the next scummiest, but you never decide that ahead of time.
Putting the idea into town's head that, oh if Parama flips green it must be Syryana! is really good...if you're scum and they're both town.
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Post Post #717 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:59 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

I also don't like how you're fencesitting between the two wagons and won't take a side here. I understand it's a tough decision but not having any opinion at all on why either of them might be scum or town is weird.
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Post Post #718 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 1:42 pm

Post by KainTepes »

VOTE: SYRANA THIS IS.......... MY FINAL CHOICE!!!!!!
I AM KAIN TEPES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Post Post #719 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:13 pm

Post by Parama »

@Kain why syr over me
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Post Post #720 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:22 pm

Post by Parama »

posts that give off townie frustration vibes:
In post 424, Transcend wrote:It was fake

I just don't know how to get town read lol
In post 472, Transcend wrote:Don't know why i play this if I'm a rope magnet lol
posts that scum-transcend has no motivation to make:
In post 433, Transcend wrote:And no storm

Don't lynch someone solely for death tunneling incorrectly

That's a bad thing
In post 441, Transcend wrote:My wagon is actually full of town. MT is the only person not voting me besides Comm who is correctly reading me and someone i trust. Doc her over these garbage masons and let her take you to the promised land.
In post 446, Transcend wrote:Oh and I'd totes self hammer as scum but I'm doing last second game solving
also a really good point i agreed with:
In post 488, Transcend wrote:482 suggests he knows I'm flipping town btw
by the way "between 425 and 448" isn't necessarily the only window here. i'd previously expressed that i felt syr could be scum in 383
In post 383, Parama wrote:i think there's scum in tweet/syr tbh
and i wasn't townreading Transcend as hard in 448 as i was later
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Post Post #721 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:24 pm

Post by Parama »

Storm, there's one thing you've failed to do up to this point.

Why does my switch from Transcend to Syr make sense if I'm scum and Syr is town? The only reason I can think of is that you think I'm scum with Transcend. Which... doesn't make much sense if you read through the game.

Until you can justify that you don't really have a basis for an argument against me, since you said yourself you townread me until I switched to Syr.
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Post Post #722 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:26 pm

Post by Parama »

also i think you would do well to explain why you think syr is town. because, you realize, if he is town and you have a good reason for it that i agree with, i might change my mind on lynching him? and i'm not the only one who's expressed interest in a syr lynch either, clearly.
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Post Post #723 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:29 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

I'm convinced by a certain thing in that post. I don't think it was what you intended at all, but I'm seeing a tiny little towntell in there and that's enough for me.
The only unfortunate thing is that I still don't see scum Syry.
Right now I'm leaning towards Kain but I think lots of people are still townreading him.
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Post Post #724 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:29 pm

Post by Parama »

In post 683, Syryana wrote:
In post 682, Stormcloud wrote:I think he didn't defend implosion because he would have been okay with lynching him.
I actually didn't defend implosion because I had a suspicion the two of you were masons from your earlier posts about him being solid town. I did a reread after I made my "bored, intent to intent to hammer if nothing happens" post and realized you were way too certain he was town. I didn't want to call attention to the fact in the event the wagon derailed without a claim.
also let me just drop right here that picking up on PR tells is something scum are more likely to do because they're more interested in finding PRs than town are.
so this reason is either 1. a lie 2. something far more likely to come from scum than town
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