In post 5, RadiantCowbells wrote:What happens when the game meta devolves to 'Okay we're lynching X because we want them conftown and Y is going to self sacrifice and if they don't we power lynch them tomorrow.'
Because that's what's going to happen every single time.
Im not sure it will happen (again hard boiled theory) but even in the case it does, you force scum into a scenario where if scum gets lined up for a lynch, they pull three down with them.
It essentially is a 10:2 nightless variant game if that is the case (example town A saved, B dies instead, A dies following night) where if scum when either lynched or supposed to be saved takes three town down as well. Absolute worst case for scum is being targeted D1 where it would leave the second scum in a 7:1 scenario where scum probably is aiming for a 3:1 endgame with one clears via:
7 Town 1 Scum
Town A lynch, Town B saves, B dies (6:1)
Town C NK (5:1)
Town D lynched, Town E saves, E dies (4:1)
Town A NK (3:1)
Even in that case, scum isn't dead in the water. They would need to be out of top four targets, but enter a 3:1 with one clear (Town D). Its tough, but in a 2P scum one dying D1 should be extremely hard to overcome.
If first two who die are town and then scum dies next cycle we have:
5 Town 1 scum
Town A lynch, Town B saves, B dies (4:1)
Town C NK (3:1)
That time scum only has to be out of top two to force a 4P endgame where there is one clear town.
The only way it goes 100% south for scum is if they are set up as part of a pair (e.g. day one lynch/save)
This also assumes town will always follow the correct plan of attack. What if player X who is supposed to sacrifice is convinced that the lynch is scum? I think that even when this plan is laid out, there are enough players who will just ignore the odds and move on.